Tracking the heavy rain threat

Good Thursday to one and all. It’s a very windy and VERY mild day taking shape, but the focus of the forecast continues to be on the heavy rain threat over the next few weeks. It’s a setup that can lead to additional high water concerns across much of the state.

Highs on this Thursday reach 65-70 in many areas, with a few low 70s in the south and southeast. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will also rumble through here:

Rains will increase tonight and early Friday, when a cold front drops in from the north. Some rumbles of thunder will also be possible. Colder air comes in behind this front, leading to the chance for a mix of precipitation as the rain tapers off Friday afternoon.

That front stalls out on top of the region, allowing another low pressure to move through on Saturday. That brings another swath of heavy rains, with maybe a touch of snow for a time in the north:

After a break in the action on Sunday, showers and thunderstorms quickly increase by Monday as a strong southwesterly flow kicks in. Temps will be very mild during this time. Next week as a whole looks very active with rounds of showers and thunderstorms rumbling across Kentucky, increasing our flooding risk:

The setup for next week continues to run toward the pattern we have been outlining. A deep trough develops across the western part of the country, with a springtime ridge of high pressure across the southeast. That puts our region in between the two, with repeat heavy rains on top of us:

This can cause significant flooding and river flooding issues to develop across the entire state and surrounding states.

The CFS shows this supper wet pattern lingering through March. Check out the rainfall forecast over the next 45 days:

Make it a great day and take care.

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