A warmer pattern shows itself

Good Wednesday to one and all. Temps this week continue to run much below normal, but a warmer look is showing up as we flip the calendar to May. This likely means a pretty warm Kentucky Derby week, with thunderstorms trying to crash the party.

There’s nothing warm out there today, but temps will be milder than the past few days. Highs should reach the low and middle 60s as we fight clouds for much of the state. Leftover showers may also be noted, especially in the east:

Thursday will find a mix of sun and clouds in the north, with the threat for showers to show back up across the southern half of the state. Because of this, temps may be all over the place.

The upper level system diving in here on Friday continues to look more progressive and less impressive:

Notice how that no longer closes off, but zips in and out without a lot of fanfare.  A few gusty showers will be noted, with a reinforcing shot of cooler than normal temps this weekend. Frost is possible by Sunday morning. Outside of that, the weekend looks pretty nice.

Things change early next week, bringing the 70s in here VERY quickly, with nice weather settling in. This is out longest and strongest stretch of true spring weather, so far. That ridge really pops into Kentucky Derby Week:

As I’ve mentioned for a few days, 80+ degree temps are likely to show up under that type of ridge. You can also see a deep western trough on the above map. In between the two, some big thunderstorms may roam. Watch how that pushes farther east by Derby weekend:

 

That setup can bring severe weather from the plains into the Ohio Valley at some point next week. This has been a very, very odd severe weather season across the country. Even as cold as it has been in Kentucky, we have still had 22 tornadoes already, which is way above normal for this time period. That’s 22 more tornadoes than Oklahoma and Kansas COMBINED. That’s right, the heart of tornado alley has not had a single tornado and the month of April is a week from wrapping up.

Kentucky’s 22 tornadoes are second only to Alabama’s 30.

Have a great Wednesday and take are.

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