Tracking Derby weekend storm chances

Good afternoon, everyone. It’s another very warm and windy day taking shape across Kentucky, but thunderstorms are inching closer. A few may sneak into the region today, but the main action holds off until late Kentucky Oaks Day into Kentucky Derby Day.

Temps today will be back into the 80-85 degree range. Those southwest winds are causing moisture levels to increase, leading to the potential for a shower or storm. The best chance is across the western and northern parts of the state. That’s where a marginal risk for severe weather is:

That risk area expands farther east into Kentucky on Oaks Day:

Local hail and high winds will be possible, but this does not look like a big outbreak of severe storms. Also, this is NOT going to be an all day rain.

The front bringing the showers and storms will slow down, allowing for a wave of low pressure to develop along it. That does not bode well for Kentucky Derby Day, as scattered showers and storms may be around:

That could spell for some trouble for Churchill Downs and all those Derby Parties across the entire region.

I leave you with your Thursday storm tracking toys:

Current watches
Current Watches

Possible watch areas
Current MDs

Have a great Thursday and take care.

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