Storms set to return

Good Tuesday to one and all. As our hot and humid pattern slowly fades away, we turn our attention toward a very stormy setup. Rounds of showers and storms rumble in, courtesy of a stalled front.

Temps today will be in the upper 80s to low 90s for many, with scattered showers and storms going up. One or two of the storms may be on the strong side:

Showers and storms will increase on Wednesday as a cold front drops in from the northwest. That front gets to Kentucky and slows down, allowing for a few waves of low pressure to move along it. The end result will be rounds of showers and thunderstorms rumbling across Kentucky through the weekend:

Heavy rainfall is a very good likelihood, leading to the potential for local high water issues developing. Check out the European Model rain numbers through this weekend and into early next week:

Many of the seasonal models are just now getting into the winter months, and I’ve been showing a few. The common theme of the various seasonal models is for a weak to moderate El Nino to develop well off the coast of South America. The farther west of South America, the better the chance for a cold winter in our region. Those same models are also showing a warm pool of water in the Gulf of Alaska. This was there back in the winters of 13/14 and 14/15, and was something we said would lead to some healthy winters around here, and both delivered the goods.

The latest JAMSTEC Seasonal Model shows our warm pool and El Nino developing for fall. Here’s the September-November average:

Watch the cold signal blossom across the country for the same time period:

Winter just now gets into the range of the JAMSTEC and it’s showing a continuation of the GOA warm pool and the El Nino. Here’s the December-February average:

Watch how the model cranks the colder than normal temps from the southern plains through the eastern half of the country:

Regardless of what any seasonal model shows for actual temps and precipitation, we take them with a grain of salt. That goes without saying. That said, the takeaway from the models is the GOA warm pool and the El Nino placement. If those develop, our odds for an exciting winter increase.

Have a good one and take care.

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