Scattered storms and steamy temps start July

Good Sunday, everyone. We’ve made it to the month of July, widely considered the heart of summer. The steamy temps from June are carrying over to our new month, with scattered showers and storms joining the fray. This is a setup that looks to continue right on through our 4th of July week.

Temps today are back into the upper 80s and low 90s with a heat index pushing the mid and upper 90s at times. At the same time, the atmosphere is primed for a few showers and storms to bubble up before the day is over.

Here are your tracking toys for the day:

I mentioned recently how the wet ground helping us fight the heat, but just how wet is the ground? The rainfall departures for the year are off the charts:

Many areas of the state are more than 12″ above normal, with some pockets of 20″ above normal. That’s absolutely nuts, but goes along with the pattern we have been forecast now for months.

Monday should feature a little better coverage of showers and storms, and that should shave a few degrees off your back porch thermometer. Locally heavy rains are a good bet with the storms going up over the next few days. You can see this on the GFS rainfall forecast through early Tuesday:

As I have mentioned many times over the past few months, this is a summer with no shortage of thunderstorms and rainfall. That’s certainly been the case to date, and appears to be locked and loaded for the rest of the summer. Case in point is the 2 week rain forecast from the GFS:

These rounds of storms will also come with temps averaging above normal. Here’s the CFS temperature anomaly for the first 10 days of July:

You can clearly see the core of heat is to our north and northeast, just as it is right now.

For some time, several of the weekly/monthly models have been forecasting a shift to much cooler for the middle and later parts of July. The same CFS run shows this taking hold from July 10-20:

Make it a great day and take care.

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