Tracking another cold front into Kentucky

Good Tuesday, folks. It’s all eyes on another cold front dropping into the region from the north. This boundary is bringing an increase in the threat for storms and will bring a decrease in the temps behind it.

Highs today are generally in the upper 80s with scattered storms going up. As the front nears by evening, a broken line of storms will drop in from the north. A few of those storms may be on the strong side. Here’s your regional radar to track the action:

Slightly cooler than normal air blows in behind the front for Wednesday and Thursday with skies staying in pretty good shape. There is still a slight chance for a shower or storm early on Wednesday, especially across our southern counties. The same front is helping steer Chris away from the east coast:

cone graphic

Temperatures by later this week will toast back up with some scattered storms joining the party by the weekend. The stormy action looks to increase next week as temps decrease.

The European Ensembles are also locking in on this cool shot showing up next week:

It’s the time of year I start to really take a look at the overall setup leading up to fall and winter. The first place I look to is the Pacific Ocean. You often hear me talk about El Nino or La Nina and the impacts they can have on our weather. El Nino is abnormal warming of the waters around the equator, while La Nina is abnormal cooling of those same waters.

The mistake many folks make when talking about El Nino or La Nina is by not looking at the placement of each event. In many cases, placement often plays a bigger role than strength. The Nino regions are broken up into 4 areas:

This year, we are seeing the seasonal models pointing toward a weak El Nino developing in region 3.4. You can see this spike in the tri-monthy forecast through the winter:

Region 1+2 is forecast to be much cooler compared to normal and compared to region 3.4:

Why is that important? History tells us that when region 3.4 is warmer than region 1+2, it increases the risk for colder winters across the eastern half of the country. When 1+2 is warmer than 3.4, our winters have a greater chance to be warmer than normal.

What do all those squiggly lines actually look like on a map? Here is the December-February Sea Surface Temperature anomaly forecast from the CFS:The boxed area shows the greatest anomalies showing up in region 3.4. You will also notice the warmer than normal water along the west coast of North America leading to our infamous warm pool in the Gulf of Alaska. That warm pool can be a big driver to help pump a ridge into Alaska and western Canada, forcing a trough into the eastern part of the country.

So, as I start my preliminary look into the upcoming fall and winter, those two things really stand out in a big way. Winter weather lovers should like the sound of that.

 

 

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