Good Tuesday, everyone. It’s another day of isolated showers and storms across central and eastern Kentucky, but more widespread action is on the way. This returns just in time to begin the new school year in many districts, including Fayette county.
Temps today are in the 80-85 degree range for most areas, with just a slight chance for a shower or storm to go up:
Our first day of school starts with temps in the 60s and a touch of fog early Wednesday. The showers and storms begin to ramp it up a bit by Wednesday afternoon as another low works into the region.
Those showers and storms then come at is in rounds Thursday into Friday:
Locally heavy rains will be likely with some of the storms.
From there, we track another system set to impact the region over the weekend, with one more slated to arrive behind that into early next week:
The models have been consistently showing a pretty good trough pushing that second system into the region next week. They do vary on the depth of the cool shot coming behind it, with some of the latest GFS runs looking pretty darn cool. Check out the below normal numbers:
As we look down long and winding weather road toward winter, the European Seasonal Model now goes out through the month of February. This model has a lot of respect in the weather world, so it’s something I tend to give a little more credence to.
What I’m showing you is the 500mb anomaly averages for the entire months of December, January and February. This indicates where the troughs and ridges tend to set up in the means, and one can infer colder than normal weather in the troughs, and warmer than normal weather in the ridges.
December shows the mean trough settling into our region:
Notice how it hangs tough right on top of us into January:
By February, the trough becomes more elongated into the east, but it’s still there:
The Euro Seasonal is basically showing a setup for what would be a pretty harsh winter around here and has a throwback look to it.
Have a great day and take care.