Good Wednesday, folks. Our tropical feeling atmosphere is about to go full blown tropics with moisture from Gordon on the way to the region. This means we will need to be on guard for rounds of heavy rain producing showers and storms through the upcoming weekend.
This storm continues to track east of the original forecasts from National Hurricane Center:
Those folks have been playing catch up to this eastward track all week long and I’m not sure why. Perhaps an over-reliance on some of the hurricane models is to blame.
Regardless, this storm will continue to track east of the forecast track well inland and the operational models have been suggesting this for days and days.
The setup ahead of Gordon will bring a front into Kentucky and slow it down over the next few days. That stationary front will have a lot of tropical moisture to work with, giving us rounds of very heavy rains. Watch for local high water issues from later Wednesday through Friday.
By the weekend, that front is STILL across our region with the remnants of Gordon turning east into the Ohio Valley. The trend is farther south on the east turn. Here’s the GFS:
The Canadian is even farther south and into Kentucky:
The European Model has been awful with this system and it continues to suffer with some MAJOR convective feedback issues. Still, the model is slowly correcting with the inland track throwing heavy rain our way:
None of this is set in stone by any means, but it’s an indication of the increasing heavy rain threat across Kentucky through Sunday.
Behind this system comes much cooler air into the early part of next week.
Here are your storm tracking tools for this Wednesday:
Have a great day and take care.