Florence likely to impact our weather

Good Thursday, everyone. The forecast going forward is consumed by what happens with Hurricane Florence. Right now, it’s looking more and more like Florence will have a direct impact on the weather across Kentucky by late this weekend.

Ahead of Florence, we are tracking an increase in moisture and temps across the state. Highs are in the 80-85 degree range from today through Saturday, with scattered showers and storms going up. Here are your radars to track today’s isolated boomers:

This storm has a chance at a double landfall… One south of Wilmington, NC, with the other in South Carolina. The latest National Hurricane Center forecast reflects this possibility:

cone graphic

The various hurricane models are in very good agreement with the forecast track of the storm into the Carolinas and then all the way into Kentucky by early next week:

The various members of the GFS Ensembles share a similar line of thinking:

The latest GFS is very similar to the tracks shown above, bringing rain and wind into Kentucky Sunday and Monday:

That clearly brings the remnant low right on top of the state.

The European Model has corrected itself from last night’s extreme solution that took this system south of Savannah. The model now shows the double landfall scenario. Here’s the North Carolina hit:

Followed by the South Carolina hit…

From there, the Euro takes this system across central and eastern Kentucky:

Some thoughts on how all this may play out:

  • Scattered showers and storms will go up over the next few days, with an increase Friday and Saturday. Tropical downpours will be possible.
  •  The remnants of Florence begin throwing clouds our way by late Saturday into early Sunday.
  • The first rains from this storm should arrive late Sunday and continue through Monday. Showers and storms will be common across central and eastern Kentucky. Heavy rainfall may cause a few issues.
  • Unlike Gordon, this will likely produce gusty winds across our part of the world.
  • None of this is set in stone. 🙂

Have a great day and take care.

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