Big changes arrive this week

Good Monday to one and all. A major pattern change is on the way this week, courtesy of a fall cold front and a tropical system in the Gulf. Those two hook up to bring heavy rain into the region, followed by shots of chilly to cold air.

Before we break that forecast down for you, let’s talk about what’s going on out there today. It’s another steamy one with highs deep in the 80s. Just like the past several days, scattered showers and storms will flare up:

Michael is forming in the southern Gulf of Mexico and may become a weak hurricane on the way to the central Gulf Coast. The NHC forecast track seems to be buying way too much into the outlier European Model:

cone graphic

Let’s keep in mind how bad the European Model has been with tropical systems this season. It continues to suffer from severe convective feedback, which then alters the movement of the storm.

The GFS is back west, throwing tropical moisture into the cold front as it crosses the state. While the track of the center is to our east, look at all the rain it still throws into central and eastern Kentucky:

The Canadian Model continues to be farther west:

Following all that up is chilly air that turns cold. Check out how the pattern flips, allowing all that cold to finally flood into the east:

Have a great Monday and take care.

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