Flipping to fall

Good Tuesday, everyone. We are about to go from the heart of summer to the heart of fall and we are doing so in less than a day. This abrupt change will be accompanied by rain and thunderstorms, some of which may be indirectly associated with Hurricane Michael.

Michael is going to become a major hurricane. I threw out the Opal reference a few days ago and now it’s being thrown around in every weather circle. At the time, I did not think this would get as strong as Opal, but it may very well get there. Here’s the latest from the NHC:

cone graphic

It continues to be interesting to see the official track from the NHC being so far south of all the guidance. The hurricane models continue to shift a little west:

The GFS Ensembles are WELL west of the NHC track:

So are the Canadian Ensembles:

In this scenario, I would put more stock in the Ensembles than the hurricane models (which have already started to go a little west). Why? Because the Ensembles and operational models will likely handle the approaching cold front much better.

Speaking of the operational models. The Canadian Model matches the Ensembles track:

The new version of the GFS is similar:

What does all that mean for us?

  • The front brings a line of showers and storms across the state late Tuesday through Wednesday night.
  • Tropical moisture from Michael will get drawn into this front, upping the ante for, at least, locally heavy rains.
  • Outer rains from what’s left of the tropical system may bring heavy rain to southeastern Kentucky Wednesday night and early Thursday.
  • Chilly air moves in behind this from later Thursday into Friday.

Another rain maker zips into the region this weekend and is what’s left from Hurricane Sergio in the Pacific. That’s right, a tropical system from the Pacific will bring some rain our way. As that zips through, the cold crashes in:

Notice the flakes in parts of the Ohio Valley and Appalachian Mountains? Impressive to see. Needless to say, that’s some very cold air for this time of year.

As far as today’s weather is concerned, scattered showers and storms will be around with temps back in the 80s. Track away:

Make it a great Tuesday and take care.

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