Frosty cold mornings settle in

Good Tuesday, everyone. Frosty cold fall mornings are finally upon us, with the potential end of the growing season coming later this week. That brings us to the weekend and the potential for a storm system to unleash even colder air.

Let’s start with today and roll forward. Highs are in the 50s with a mix of sun and clouds for most areas. Lows by Wednesday morning will drop into the upper 30s as skies stay mainly clear.

Another front moves in here in the afternoon with gusty winds and falling temps. That front won’t produce any rain, but unleashes the coldest air of the season by Thursday morning.

These numbers will effectively end the growing season…

This takes us to the weekend and another system moving in, unleashing even colder air into early next week. Rain is likely Friday into Saturday with the air behind this trying to produce a few Ohio Valley snowflakes:

Temps behind that will likely drop into the 20s for lows, bringing a freeze to much of the region.

Winter is fast approaching and I’ve been busy doing my annual homework for the winter forecast. I also like to check out the seasonal models to see what they are saying. The Japanese Model has had a good run this year, so It certainly has a hot hand.

The new seasonal run for December through February shows a lot of blocking in areas where you want to see it for cold weather in our region. Check out the deep trough it has across much of the country for the winter:

That’s showing 500mb height anomalies and not temp anomalies.

The UKMET seasonal model does things a little differently. It breaks things down by percentages. It has a low chance for above normal temps, with a much greater chance for below normal temps:

Given those percentages, you can see how the model anticipates a setup similar to what the Japanese is showing.

Have a great Tuesday and take care.

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