All eyes on the weekend

Good Thursday, everyone. The day is dawning with a kiss of frost across central and eastern Kentucky, but will end on a very nice note. As we head into the weekend, showers look to sit things out as another blast of cold gets set to blow in.

As the patchy frost burns off this morning, temps rebound into the low 50s by this afternoon. Skies will be partly to mostly sunny, giving us a gorgeous fall day.

Those clouds are ahead of a system moving in later Friday into Saturday. That brings rain back into our region with a blast of cold air to follow.

That rain rolls in here from west to east and takes us into early Saturday. Much colder air moves in behind it for later Saturday into Sunday. That may bring around some wraparound moisture in here:


Some flakes are possible across the northern Ohio Valley and in the higher elevations of the Appalachian Mountains. Temperatures by Sunday morning will drop into the upper 20s and low 30s as skies clear.

The weather into the first half of the week looks really pleasant with the numbers still a little below normal.

I continue to beat the drum for a major amplification of the jet stream for the final week of October This type of setup is pretty wild:

Things could get a little interesting before the month closes.

The longer range European Ensembles are out and take us from now through November 29th. The model shows a colder than normal pattern during this time, but it keeps our region in a very active pattern. That would mean a lot more rain and increasing snow chances.

Ensembles rainfall:

Control run:

Ensembles snow:

The control run builds an early season glacier:

Obviously, we take any of those models with a grain of salt, but the overall setup makes sense. Our current pattern is now colder than normal and wetter than normal and that’s exactly what the model is showing. How much of that equates to snow across the country remains to be seen. But, snow cover across Canada is way above normal right now and that’s usually a harbinger of a colder and snowier winter in our part of the world.

Have a great day and take care.

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