Active pattern set to return

Good Tuesday, folks. We have a weak cold front slipping through the state today, bringing another shot of cold air for the next few days. As that happens, the overall pattern gets ready to really crank by the end of the week into the weekend. That’s when a deep trough slowly works across the eastern half of the country, bringing a couple big storm systems with it.

Today is a windy and very nice day with temps in the pleasant 60s. Those numbers come way back down behind the front for Wednesday and Thursday. Highs will struggle into the low 50s with frost and freezing temps during the mornings.

Hurricane Willa is coming ashore along the Pacific coast of Mexico today. This powerful storm is already throwing tropical clouds all the way toward our region…

The remnant low from Willa will cross Mexico and into Texas and then merge with a deepening trough across the eastern half of the country. Here are the European Ensembles forecast tracks:

Another Pacific Hurricane, Sergio, also crossed the country to bring is rain a few weeks ago. To have two different Pacific tropical systems bring us rain is absolutely astounding!

That system will quickly throw rain our way as early as Thursday. The NAM only goes out through Friday morning, but you can clearly see a healthy system forming:

Snow lovers would be going crazy with that kind of setup in the winter, or even a month from now.

The Canadian shows something very similar then takes this storm up the east coast with additional systems diving in behind it:

Rounds of rain, gusty winds and chilly temps are on tap for the bluegrass state from late Thursday through early next week.

As I look at the pattern to close out October and begin November, we may very well see another deep trough digging into the country. This one may get help from a recurving typhoon in the western Pacific:

If that system does recurve as the models suggest, that energy would wind up heading toward the Aleutian Islands, forcing a blocky looking ridge ahead of it. This would send a very deep trough into the US and several of the medium range models are seeing the potential:

Make it a great day and take care.

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