Good Friday, everyone. The pattern setting up for the next week and change continues to look like one straight out of the heart of winter. Much colder than normal temperatures and a few flakes chances will dominate the pattern.
Let’s start with today and roll ahead. Temps will be n the mid and upper 40s with clouds on the increase. Those clouds are ahead of a low pressure system moving our way for Friday. Showers increase from the southwest by late this evening into tonight:
Our system rolling in from the southwest brings a cold rain that may even have a clap of thunder with it into Friday. Winds will be gusty as temps crash from northwest to southeast. That sets the stage for the possibility of a few flurries on a northwest wind Friday night.
The Hi Res NAM actually has a few snow showers streaking across the sky as early as Friday evening:
The European Model has a similar look:
Saturday is a very cold day with temps deep in the 20s with wind chills in the teens to start. High will be in the upper 30s and low 40s across the state.
The next system moves in here Monday into Tuesday and has a winter look to it. Arctic air is diving into the area with our low developing to our south and rolling northeast. That may bring rain and snow our way as early as Monday, with a better snow chance behind it Monday night and Tuesday.
The GFS and European Models are showing their respective biases. The Euro is too strong and too far west because it has trouble with holding on to energy too long as it ejects from the southwest. The GFS is usually too progressive, but still shows a good snow into eastern parts of the state:
The GFS Ensembles are showing the snow potential from our region through the northeast:
Have a great day and take care.