Tracking the winter weather potential

Good Tuesday to one and all. A light wintry mix of rain and snow is falling across the region today with another waiting in the wings. That next system has the potential for a nasty mix of winter weather by Wednesday night and Thursday.

Our morning mix of light snow and light rain will be working across the region. Some very light snow accumulations are possible in a few spots, especially on elevated surfaces. Here are your radars to track the action:

Hamburg Area from WKYT Studio
Lexington

I-75 @ Newtown Pike
Lexington

I-75 MP 127
Georgetown

I-64 at KY-801
Near Morehead

I-64 MP 97
Winchester
I-64 WB @ MP 97

Mountain Parkway @ MP 36
Near Pine Ridge

With temps around freezing, watch out for a slick spot or two trying to develop.

The next storm system continues to look like a messy one for our region from Wednesday night through Thursday night. This is the system that wasn’t on any models last week, but I said I was picking up on a signal for a decent storm during this time period. That signal proved to be true and this has the makings of a pretty big hit from Missouri to the Mid-Atlantic to the northeast.

One low develops ahead of the upper level low and works into the lower Ohio Valley then transfers energy to a huge storm along the east coast. This setup may very well bring heavy snow into parts of western Kentucky with the rest of the state going from freezing rain and a mix to rain then ending as some snow. There is a real possibility of a Winter Storm Threat mode later today for the west, especially.

Let’s see how the individual models are playing this.

NAM

GFS

The European

Let’s begin with the freezing rain threat for Wednesday night. I honestly can’t recall talking about freezing rain this early in the cold weather season, but here we are. If we do get a period of freezing rain, I suspect this is mainly on elevated objects since the ground temps are not below freezing.

The NAM:

GFS

The European Model

Some sleet may also show up at this time. Thankfully, temps rise to above freezing by Thursday morning.

The snow potential of this system continues to be high along and west of the track of the low and upper low. There is likely to be a heck of a comma head of snow that will put down a thumping wet snowfall. Exactly where that sets up is still to be determined, but areas of western Kentucky is seriously in the ball game.

The European shows the thumper threat:

The GFS

Have a great day and take care.

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