Snow chances increasing

Good Tuesday, everyone. Rounds of light snow continue to work across the state today and will continue through Wednesday. This kicks off a very active winter pattern that may include a bigger system this coming weekend.

The rounds of light snow and snow showers today through early Wednesday may have some overachieving bands, especially across the eastern half of the state. Much of the light sticking snow waits until after dark to kick in. Here’s a rough outline of the light snowfall potential:

Many areas will be getting in on a coating to 1″, with some of those overachieving snow streaks showing up in the outlined areas.

The models are going in this direction:

Hi Res NAM

NAMCanadian

A few slick spots are a good bet later tonight and early Wednesday. This may cause a few delays or cancellations.

The next system arrives late Thursday and looks fairly light. It should be in the form of a rain/snow mix, with a period of light snow setting up for some:

That brings us to the rather complicated setup for a developing winter storm that may impact our region this coming weekend into early next week. Regular readers know I’ve been tracking this storm signal for well over a week now and it continues to strongly show up. The devil is, as always, in the details.

As I’ve mentioned, it’s going to be another day or two before  we see the models get a firm grip on how to handle this storm system ejecting out of the southwest. That rolls from west to east across the deep south, but has an inverted trough into our region. That storm then tries to turn the corner and may actually slow down in doing so.

The exact track of this low is crucial to how much snow we can get around here. Some models absolutely crush areas of the state, while others show a lighter brand of snow and even some ice.

The new version of the GFS has been the steadiest of the models over the past few days. It has had a very consistent track and evolution:

You can see how the model keeps that second little system spinning over our region, keeping snow going into early next week. That has been something showing up more and more and has my attention.

While the European Model is still having some feedback issues, notice how it also keeps that second system going into early next week:

Both of those models have some insane snow totals showing up because of that slow moving system on top of us. Of course… That does not mean they are right! I’m just breaking down the models for you guys.

In the meantime, let’s get back to the rounds of light snow kicking in out there today. Here are your tracking tools for this Tuesday:

Make it a good one and take care.

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