Tracking light snow and a bigger system

Good Wednesday, folks. We continue to see rounds of light snow and snow showers working across the state early today. This is dropping some light accumulations, leading to slick spots on area roads.

This may wind up being an appetizer to a bigger storm system trying to target parts of the state this weekend. I’ll get to that in a moment, but let’s begin with today’s light snow.

A Winter Weather Advisory is out for parts of Kentucky into the early afternoon. Light accumulations range from a coating to as much as 1″ in a few spots. This action will diminish from west to east during the morning.

Here are your light snow tracking toys:

Hamburg Area from WKYT Studio
Lexington

I-75 @ Newtown Pike
Lexington

I-75 MP 127
Georgetown

I-64 at KY-801
Near Morehead

I-64 MP 97
Winchester
I-64 WB @ MP 97

Mountain Parkway @ MP 36
Near Pine Ridge

Florence

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Covington

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Louisville

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E-town

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Another weak system dives in here late Thursday into Thursday night. This should have a band of light snow with it, and some light accumulations are possible:

As far as the winter storm potential is concerned for the weekend and early next week, with each passing day, confidence increases of some kind of impact on our weather. If you’re a regular reader, this is a storm signal we have been talking about on the blog for more than a week already. The signal is the easy part… pinpointing the details is the hard part.

Let’s begin with the area of greatest potential. This is a map I put together for WKYT before the latest computer model runs:

That’s a rough outline that will be adjusted several times in the coming days.

As expected, the latest models are beginning to shake off their respective biases and are coming more into line with one another. The European Model is ridding itself of the convective feedback issues and is now showing a farther north and west storm system with a big hit on our region:

That’s a slow-moving storm system that would last from Saturday through early Tuesday. The end result:

The average snow map from the GFS Ensembles has been hinting at a more widespread and farther north solution for days now. The latest run is no different:

The most consistent operational model has been the new version of the GFS. It has had this similar solution for days now with very few hiccups:

The GFS is finally coming around to this same look:

The Canadian has it too:

What is the takeaway from where we are right now? It’s looking more and more likely that a winter storm will have an impact on Kentucky’s weather. The extent of that impact remains to be seen and I’m still not sure where that greatest impact winds up. That’s going to be my focus of the next few days.

Enjoy the day and take care.

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