All eyes on the weekend

Good Thursday, everyone. We have another light snow maker rolling into town this evening, but the main focus of the forecast continues to be on a possible weekend winter storm impact to parts of the state.

Before we get to that potential, let’s talk about the light snow maker diving in here from the northwest. It’s along and just behind another cold front. That can put down light accumulations into parts of the region from late this evening into the wee hours of Friday morning.

Here are your radars to track the late day action:

As we inch closer to the weekend and a possible winter storm impact, I was hoping for a little more help from the computer forecast models. Sadly, that’s not the case. The overnight runs are giving us the biggest model fight of the event, so far.

In terms of the weekend winter storm potential, I will keep this map going for the time being:

The GFS matches up pretty well with that:

Here’s the snapshot of that model run for snowfall:

Freezing rain forecast from that particular run:

The Canadian Model is a smidge farther south, but is also similar:

Here’s the snow map from that particular run:

The new version of the GFS had been super consistent in how it was handling this storm system. The latest run took a little stroll to the south:

The European Model also took a south stroll, but it really looks to be having some big issues again:

The Euro has been the most inconsistent of all the models to this point and that’s sad to see.

When we find operational models in disagreement, it’s always good to look at the Ensembles. They are made up of many different runs that show an average. The GFS Ensembles are holding serve from what they had earlier:

As you can see, nothing is set in stone with this system and we have a lot of details that still need to be worked out.

Have a great day and take care.

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