Winter storm to hit parts of the region

Good Saturday, folks. We have a winter storm targeting parts of Kentucky later today through Sunday. While the bulk of the action will be in the south and southeast, there’s some wiggle room to get this thing to come a little farther north and west before all is said and done.

I would expect for Winter Storm Watches and Winter Weather Advisories to go up for parts of the region. That may happen pretty early today. Here’s your map to check those out:

I made a First Call for ice and snowfall last night on WKYT-TV. This was before the full suite of late evening models was in…

Do NOT get attached to those numbers and lines as I will be moving them around a couple of times today as I get a better handle on how this shakes out.  Some issues I foresee:

  • Freezing rain and sleet will complicate the snowfall part of the program. Areas that get more freezing rain or sleet will obviously get less snow and vice versa.
  • There is likely to be a super sharp cut off on the northern and wester edge of snow and freezing rain shield. I’m not exactly sure where that set up, to be honest.
  • Precipitation may try to creep in a little early today in the far south and southwest. As precip moves in, temps come down quickly.
  • The whole mess has a window of opportunity to keep edging farther north and west and, as I said on Thursday, that is a concern of mine.
  • None of this is set in stone. (DRINK!)
  • Please don’t pay attention to automated forecasts such as those that appear on apps. They have no human input and will have wild variations from hour to hour.

Let’s get you caught up on the latest computer forecast models. As of this writing, many of them continue to trend back toward what they were showing a day or two ago. That’s why I didn’t make knee jerk reactions when they temporally jumped ship on Friday.

The new version of the GFS is  farther north and west with the precip shield:

Here’s the snowfall map from that run:

You can also see the fairly expansive area of freezing rain it has:

The Canadian Model is very similar:

The snow map has more widespread action that gets pretty far north in the east:

The short range version of the Canadian was the lone model to not go jump ship for a time early Friday. It was the first to show a more north and west system and it hasn’t faltered:

That model has a little less snow than the main Canadian Model, but has much more freezing rain:

That freezing rain signature also shows up pretty strong on the Hi Res NAM across the south:

I will have updates later today, so check back. Until then, here are your radars to see the action developing to our south and southwest:

Have a good one and take care.

Posted in Uncategorized | Comments