Watching a late week storm

Good Monday, folks. It’s a seasonally chilly start to the week as we inch closer and closer to the Christmas holiday. The long holiday weekend looks to kick off with a big storm system that can bring a lot of rain and wind our way, and the potential for some snowflakes.

Temps out there today are generally in the low 40s for much of central and eastern Kentucky. Skies will stay partly cloudy.

The numbers jump up by the middle of the week as clouds increase. Highs on Wednesday should be back into the 50s.

I have no changes on the late week storm system. This thing is going to be massive an impact about every state east of the Mississippi River. What kind of an impact it has on the weather where you live remains to be seen as we figure out how strong this gets and how much cold air it can wrap in from the northwest.

The GFS has a lot of rain and wind starting Thursday with rain changing to wraparound snows on Friday:

The ICON Model has a similar solution, but has a better period of wraparound snows than the GFS:

The new version of the GFS isn’t quite as strong and is a bit farther east, but still has some nice wraparound snows in the east:

The European Model covers a ton of real estate with this storm, but doesn’t have quite the cold air push behind the storm as the GFS models show:

The Canadian Model continues to be the jumpiest and weakest of the models and having a tough time pulling in colder air:

Some thoughts on this setup:

  • Time of impact is Thursday through early Saturday
  • Rain and wind are likely with this system, especially Thursday and early Friday
  • Heavy rainfall of 1″-2″  with locally higher amounts show up. Local high water issues possible
  • Wraparound snows are very POSSIBLE with such a big storm system, but that’s not a given. It all depends on how much cold air can dive in behind this storm.

What happens with that storm will impact what happens behind it for Christmas weekend into Christmas week. The Canadian Model has a nice little snow maker rolling in Christmas Eve and Day:

The GFS has a weaker version of that:

The European Model has been terribly inconsistent with the Christmas Weekend/Christmas Eve and Day look. Last night’s run at cold overwhelming the Ohio Valley. The new run has a weak system zipping through on Sunday…

Once again, there’s no shortage of action in the run up to Christmas and the holiday season. Will these systems be more Grinch than Bing Crosby?

Make it a great day and take care,

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