Winter returns later this week

Good Monday, folks. The first full week of the new year is off and running with big changes on the weather menu. Old Man Winter is set to return later this week and into the coming weekend.

Before we get to that point, we have another mild day taking shape. Highs will be deep into the 50s and winds become gusty. Showers develop from west to east this afternoon and evening as a cold front drops in:

The cold air is lagging behind the second system arriving late Tuesday into Tuesday night. That sets the stage for a very cold middle and end of the week. Below freezing highs show up Wednesday and Thursday, with gusty winds making it feel much, much colder. A few flurries and snow showers fly across the eastern half of the state on this northwest flow.

This brings us to the late week and weekend winter weather potential. Once again, I’ve been saying to watch for the models to see much more of a system than what they had been showing the past few days. Right on cue, they are doing just that.

The GFS is a “go big or go home” model. The last run was in the “go home” camp and didn’t really show much with this storm. The latest run is in the “go big” camp:

The new version of the GFS has had much more of a system than the GFS it’s about to replace. The current run is also “go big”:

The European Model is finally starting to understand the energy isn’t going to hang back in the southwest, so it’s kicking more and more of it out sooner. That means it’s seeing more and more of a winter weather threat for our region:

Watch for this system to grow stronger on the European in the coming days.

The ICON Model is also seeing more of a system than the Euro:

This is a legitimate storm system for us to watch this week. The seasonal trends for these systems to become stronger is something that we cannot deny. Why would this one be any different than the others? Well… Here’re a couple of ways… It actually has cold air ahead of it already in place and there’s high pressure to the north of the storm.

You will see lots of model swings over the next day or so before they start coming together by Wednesday. Moral of the story is to not get too excited or depressed based on any one run until then. 🙂

That said, this week is kind of the transition week into a very wintry setup for our region. The Ensembles are seeing the transition pretty well as we head into the middle of the month:

GFS Ensembles

European Ensembles:

Have a great Monday and take care.

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