Good Tuesday, folks. Our string of very mild days is coming to an end as winter flexes a little muscle in the coming days. Cold temps are blowing back in, with an increased threat for winter weather by the upcoming weekend.
Temps today are still mild ahead of another cold front moving in. This front may also touch off a few showers:
Cold air waits until tonight to surge in here and really sets up shop for Wednesday and Thursday. Those two days are going to be quite the shock as highs stay below freezing, with 30mph wind gusts making it feel MUCH colder.
Our northwest wind flow may also be strong enough to spit out some flurries or snow showers across the eastern half of the state. Here are the areas with the best chance of seeing some flakes:
This brings us to the end of the week/weekend storm potential. Confidence is high that winter weather will impact our region from late Friday through Sunday. The extent of that impact remains to be seen. Much of that depends on how much interaction we get between the northern branch and the southern branch. That will dictate where this storm goes and how strong it gets.
As I have mentioned many times, this is a different setup from the storm systems of the past 3-4 weeks. We have cold air already in place and a cold high to the north of it.
The GFS rolls this thing from west to east across the south, with an inverted trough into our region:
The new version of the GFS is far and away the farthest north solution, but doesn’t have very many model friends to play with. Still, the model puts down quite a bit of winter weather:
The majority of the individual members of the GFS Ensembles are ere a healthy hit for the bluegrass state:
Here’s the average of those 21 members:
The European Model continues to struggle with the southwestern energy and is likely too slow with it, keeping the storm system too weak. The Euro actually has two lows:
The JMA has a southern low working west to east with an inverted trough into our region, then it turns the corner up the coast:
The colors are barometric pressure anomalies and not temperatures. Notice the big high pressure funneling cold air into this storm from the north. That’s something we did not have with the past several systems.
Have a great day and take care.