The cold leads to weekend winter weather

Good Thursday, folks. Old Man Winter has rolled back into the bluegrass state, bringing cold temps and a few flurries. As we head into the upcoming weekend, it’s all eyes on a developing winter storm that will likely bring snow our way.

Before we get to that system, let’s concentrate on what’s going on out there today. Highs are hanging in the low 30s, but gusty winds make it feel closer to 20 degrees. I can’t even rule out a couple of flurries or snow showers, especially across the east:

Thursday looks like another cold and windy day with highs around freezing and a wind chill down in the low 20s. The day may actually start with a wind chill around 10 degrees.

Our weekend winter storm system starts to impact our weather Friday night and looks to continue through the weekend.

  • This system is different than the systems we’ve had over the past month. It has cold air already in place and a cold high to the north.
  • The track of the low is pretty much west to east across the southern states, then it tries to turn the corner up the coast.
  • This low will have an inverted trough into the lower Ohio Valley. That funnels moisture into the cold air, producing accumulating snow for many.
  • Still, the southern half of the state may see this switch to a rain/snow mix or plain rain for a time on Saturday and Saturday night.
  • All of this should go back over to snow and light snow on Sunday.
  • For areas getting in on all snow for the duration of the event, several inches of snow will be likely.

Here’s a map of my current line of thinking:

Keep in mind those lines may shift north or south over the next few days. An upgrade to a Winter Storm THREAT may come later today if confidence comes up just a bit.

As far as the forecast models go, we see them with the same general idea, but they are vastly different with the amount of precipitation across the region.

The European Model isn’t holding back:

The government shutdown is negatively impacting the American models like the GFS and NAM. There’s no one around to maintain these models, so the skill scores are apparently dropping off. So, I guess we have to take them with a grain of salt.

Anyway here’s the GFS:

The average snowfall map from the 21 member GFS Ensembles looks like this:

The Canadian

Have a good one and take care.

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