Good Wednesday, folks. Cloudy and cold with snow flurries. That’s basically been the weather of the week, so far, but things are about to become much more active. We have three different systems set to impact our weather in the coming days. It’s the weekend one that may bring everything but the kitchen sink our way.
Let’s start with a weak front dropping in early today. This front will touch off scattered rain and snow showers across parts of the region. Some local accumulations are possible once again.
The next system then arrives on Thursday in the form of a weak low pressure working west to east across the state. That one brings mainly rain, but we are seeing a bit colder solution coming into play. This is likely because the models are just now sensing the deep snow pack across the Ohio Valley. Keep that in mind for the weekend storm.
Watch how the HI Res NAM produces snow showers tomorrow, then has some snow with the Thursday system across the north:
As we get closer to this system, the forecast numbers from the model have come down and I suspect it’s because they are just now sensing the extent of the aforementioned snow pack.
Just because they’re colder for this first system doesn’t necessarily mean they will have the same issue with the weekend setup. But, it does give us something to think about and that’s why I’ve thrown that out there for the past few days.
As of this writing, the NAM only goes through Saturday morning. While it’s not terribly reliable from this range, it is showing the storm starting much farther south than many medium range models have been suggesting:
My thought process has been that we get two lows out of this weekend system. One develops and works into southeastern Kentucky Saturday, with a second low developing east or southeast of it by Saturday night. In that scenario, we would have the potential for flooding rains Saturday, with mix threat north, then a quick change to freezing rain sleet and snow Saturday night and Sunday morning. Snow showers and squalls would then be around Sunday afternoon on a strong northwest wind. Even if that theory is correct, it’s still too early for any specific totals of each precipitation type. Any amount of snow or ice depends on a ton of variables, so let’s just hang tight and watch the trends of the next few days. Do not short change the potential for high water ahead of any frozen stuff.
The European Model is back to showing what it had a few days ago, which is a colder solution that basically follows the outline I just gave:
The latest GFS also came a little farther south and has the 2 low scenario:
The UKMET only gives us 24 hour increments and doesn’t spit out the fancy maps like the other models. Still, it continues with a farther south storm track. These maps represent Friday evening, Saturday evening and Sunday evening:
The Canadian Model is not on board with the farther south scenario, but is showing some weird jumps with the low pressure:
That’s probably a sign the model is seeing different pressure falls, but doesn’t quite know how to handle them all.
The new version of the GFS is also still north:
As always, time will tell.
Have a good one and take care.