A nasty weekend setup

Good Thursday, everyone. We have another massive storm system moving our way for the upcoming weekend. This will bring everything from the potential for flooding to some snow and ice.

Before we get to that point, we have a MUCH weaker system moving in today. This is mainly a light rain maker, but a touch of light snow or a mix is possible in the north. Here are your Thursday tracking tools:

Florence

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Covington

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I-64 at KY-801
Near Morehead

My view on the weekend system really hasn’t changed much at all. It’s a setup that should deliver all modes of precipitation to the bluegrass state. Saturday brings heavy rain with the potential for flooding. Temps crash Saturday evening with rain changing to a period of freezing rain and sleet, then snow. Snow showers and squalls would then carry us through Sunday afternoon.

Let’s rank the weekend based on greatest impact potential:

  • Flooding and flash flooding. A general 2″-3″ of rain may fall on Saturday.
  • A flash freeze Saturday evening into Saturday night. A lot of standing water combining with temps dropping through the 20s and into the teens is not a good combo. Things ice up quickly.
  • Accumulating snow. A period of snow Saturday night will be followed by snow showers and squalls Sunday. There are a lot of variables at play in terms of how much snow falls where you live.
  • Freezing rain. A period of freezing is possible Saturday night as we make the transition from rain to snow. Again, there are a lot of variables at play for how much of this we get in on.

The European Model has been the absolute most consistent model, showing a very similar scenario with each run from the past few days:

The model snowfall map continues to be on the high side compared to all other models, but it has been slowly sinking south:

Again, that’s only a model run, so don’t get too terribly attached to it just yet. Let’s see it can get a few friends to agree with it before we totally jump in feet first… Or head first. 🙂

The European is also consistent on the amount of arctic air sweeping in here. Since the model has a snow pack across the state, it gets a little crazy with the Sunday night lows:

Again, lows like that would ONLY happen with a snow pack and clear skies. Let’s wait and see on that, but the rest of that cold is about right.

The closest model to the European is the new version of the GFS. This model is just beginning to see the second low idea, but it’s slower getting there:

With a slower evolution to the second low, it’s more disjointed with the snow forecast, but does show a healthy swath possible:

That brings us to the GFS. This poor model has the least amount of precipitation of any model and is the fastest of any model, by far:

Watch for that model to slow things down with future runs. That means your app forecasts will have some big swings on them since many are based off the GFS.

Have a great Thursday and take care.

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