Storms look to increase

Good Tuesday to one and all. Our busy 4th of July holiday period is about to kick off at the same time rounds of thunderstorms increase. This action could mean Mother Nature plays a part in some of the parades and fireworks shows. Shocker, I know!

As always, let us begin with today and roll forward. Scattered showers and storms will be noted and any storm that goes up could be strong and put down torrential rains. I will have your tracking tools in a bit.

The threat for strong to severe storms looks to increase as we make our way into Wednesday. You can see that threat on the Severe Weather Outlook from the Storm Prediction Center:

Our 4th of July looks to feature scattered storms going up, with the potential for a few waves of stronger storms to work across the state. This isn’t all day rains, but the storms are likely to play a part in some of the parades and fireworks shows.

This pattern will continue through the rest of the holiday weekend. Rounds of thunderstorms can be strong and put down heavy amounts of rain from time to time. The models are still spitting out some hefty totals through Sunday:

Cooler air likely comes in behind that into next week.

Over the past week, I’ve posted some seasonal models for your amusement. As we look at some additional seasonal models that take us through the rest of summer and through fall and winter, we find a familiar theme. The CFSv2 is usually a very warm biased model across North America, so to see a lot of normal or cool showing up is very interesting.

Here’s how the model sees the three month period from July through September:

You can see a lot of normal to cooler than normal showing up in the means. As the model goes out farther in time, it becomes more generalized, but you can see a continuation of this setup for the fall ahead…

The winter that follows appears to suggest a big ridge along the west coast with a trough in the east…

Again, that’s an interesting signal considering the model is typically warm biased for most of North America.

I leave you with the Tuesday edition of your storm trackers:

Current watches
Current Watches

Possible watch areas
Current MDs

Have an awesome day and take care.

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