A small break in the active setup

Good Thursday, everyone. We have some really nice weather out there for the next few days, but our active pattern starts to crank again late this weekend. This will lead to potent cold fronts and a pretty darn cold looking setup for the final few weeks of October.

We begin with today and the seasonal chill we have in the air. Temps may not get out of the 50s for many areas as we keep a mix of sun and clouds. This sets the stage for the potential for a light freeze overnight into areas that see clear skies. The models have several areas going below freezing:

You can see areas where the model believes will keep the clouds. If the clouds linger longer, temps stay up several degrees.

Friday looks phenomenal with temps mainly in the 60s and a mix of sun and clouds. Soak it up!

Our weekend forecast has a lot do with what happens in the Gulf of Mexico. I was telling y’all a few days ago that something tropical may get cranking here and sure enough, that looks to be the case. Regardless of how strong it gets, this is one moisture rich system.

That system likely heads toward the Florida Panhandle over the next few days. Here are the tracks from the Hurricane Models:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/96L_tracks_latest.png

Some offshoot rain, at least, from this may make it all the way into the bluegrass state from late Saturday into Sunday. The best chance would be across the eastern half of the state.

Our next system then comes at us quickly on Monday in the form of a potent cold front. This is going to be a very active front with high winds and the potential for a line of strong storms sweeping eastward across the state:

Much colder air comes in behind that and this looks to become the common theme for the rest of the month:

The European Ensembles continue to indicate the flakes potential around here before the month is over:

Have a great Thursday and take care.

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