Heavy rain for the weekend

Good Thursday to one and all. We have a big time storm system rolling our way for the upcoming weekend. This will bring a lot of rain to the region and it could be enough to cause a few issues.

Before all that happens, we are squeezing out one more nice day. Temps are deep into the 60s with a mix of sun and clouds. Winds will be a little gusty from the southwest as we gear up for the big changes this weekend.

Here’s a look at how this thing may play out:

  • Rain arrives from the south and southwest Friday afternoon into Friday evening.
  • As the low works in from the southwest on Saturday. Rounds of showers and thunderstorms will become common.
  • Heavy rainfall of 1″-3″ will be possible, with locally higher amounts showing up. That could be enough to create some local high water issues.
  • The greatest threat for those high water issues will be across much of central and south central Kentucky.
  • A few strong storms may even fire up just ahead of the track of the low that lifts from southwest to northeast.
  • Rain should end from west to east on Sunday as our storm moves away.
  • Winds are going to be another big player and could reach 40mph or greater.

Many of the models are showing several inches of rain falling. I’ll take the conservative approach with the initial rain forecast through the weekend:

That would still be enough to bring local high water concerns to the region.

The wind aspect is something I’m paying more and more attention to as we get closer to this system. The setup could bring high winds to our region, with the NAM showing gusts well in excess of 50mph late Saturday into Saturday night:

Arctic air is moving into the Rockies and plains states and then presses into our region from the west. There’s likely to be another big storm on the leading edge of this and that’s what the European Model continues to show. Check out the Ohio Valley rain and snow for late Wednesday into Halloween:

The GFS says, what storm? It just blasts the arctic air into the Ohio Valley by Tuesday, but also has a few flakes zipping through the Ohio Valley:

Have a great day and take care.

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