Looking toward a very active pattern

Good Tuesday, everyone. We have a clipper working into the state today, bringing some chilly showers. This kicks off a very busy pattern between now and Thanksgiving Day and it’s one that can deliver some winter weather at times.

Let’s begin with today and roll forward. Gusty showers increase as the day wears on with the greatest coverage across central and eastern Kentucky. Temps will generally be in the 40s, but the mountains may be just chilly enough for a stray flake or two. Here are your trackers for the day:

The end of the week/weekend system continues to show up very well on all the models, but those models are exhibiting their normal biases. The Euro is usually too wound up and too far north/west with such systems and that looks to be the case with the low coming Friday night and Saturday:

That run does spit out some hefty rain totals around here:

On the flip side, the GFS is too flat and too progressive with our system:

So the European has the low going into Ohio and the GFS has the low going through South Carolina. If they meet in the middle, we are probably dealing with reality. That’s similar to what the average of the GFS Ensembles are showing:

This continues to look like a lot of rain from late Thursday through Friday, with the potential for some winter weather to show up at some point Saturday, depending on the track of the low.

This is part of the action packed pattern and the European Model shows what I’m talking about. Watch the above system and the one coming Thanksgiving week:

Once again, we are likely seeing the Euro too far west and north with this storm, but it’s a doozy:

If we look at the European Ensembles from next week through early December, focus on the block around Greenland and northeastern Canada. Watch how stable it is and how it forces lower heights from Alaska down into the US:

Have a terrific Tuesday and take care.

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