A little winter on the way

Good Monday, everyone. It’s a windy and sometimes wet day across the bluegrass state as we get ready for a blast of winter weather. This moves in on Tuesday and carries us into Tuesday night with rain changing to sleet and snow then snow.

I’m taking a conservative approach with my First Call For Snowfall…

You can see the headlines I’ve added to the map. We will see one heck of a cutoff on the western side of this and pinpointing where this sets up is a pain in the keester. We will also see rain change to sleet and snow. How long it stays sleet in any one location will impact totals. I’ve added a locally higher to the 1″-4″ region in case some of these areas switch a little quicker. Again, this is a First Call, not a Last Call. I guarantee I will be making adjustments to the lines and totals before the day is over. 🙂

It is interesting to note the WPC is highlighting a large chunk of the state with the potential for 4″+ snows…

The GFS continues to be right in line with this thinking…

If we take that map and match it with the average from the 21 member SREF, we find a very similar look…

Again, that’s smoothed out because it’s averaging 21 different runs.

The Canadian Model isn’t too far off from the GFS and SREF…

The Short Range Canadian is also similar…

 The NAM continues to target southeastern Kentucky with the snow and sleet. This run looks choppy with the snowfall…

Here’s the sleet forecast from that run…

The Hi Res NAM is also targeting the southeastern part of the state with the best snow potential…

Here are your tracking tools:

Have a great day and take care.

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