Tracking a big fall front

Good Monday, everyone. A potent fall cold front is crossing the state today and it’s bringing a major temperature change. In the process, showers and storms are sweeping across the state to go along with very gusty winds. Even colder air will then follow this up later in the week.

Let’s kick things off with the action along the front. Temps ahead of our boundary will spike to near 80 and that creates some instability. As the front moves into this air across the eastern half of the state, some of the storms may become strong.

The Storm Prediction Center has this area in a low-end risk for severe storms:

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/public/state/images/KY_swody1.png

Damaging wind will be the primary player with this line of showers and storms. Even without true severe storms, winds will be very gusty and may reach 40mph at times along the front. The NAM wind gust forecast for Monday shows this well:

I mentioned the temps ahead of this front and how they warm. Some areas will flirt with 80 at the same time areas behind the front are dropping into the 50s. This front means business as it passes over your house:

Some may see a 25-30 degree drop in just an hour or two.

Leftover showers will carry us into Tuesday across eastern Kentucky with low clouds being tough to break into the rest of the region. This means Tuesday’s highs likely stay in the 50s east and only 60-65 for the rest of the state:

From there, we watch another front drop in from the northwest as we open October on Thursday. That has even colder air behind it and we may even see some Friday showers coming all the way from Lake Michigan:

Highs Friday and Saturday will likely stay in the 50s with lows that can reach the frosty 30s.

Another system is going to dig into the Ohio Valley by Sunday and Monday and that could bring additional chilly showers:

That can actually get darn chilly in terms of high temps.

I leave you with your storm tracking toys for the day:

Current watches
Current Watches

Possible Watch Areas

Current MDs

Have a great day and take care.

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