Tracking a heavy rain threat

Good Tuesday, everyone. A cold front is slamming on the brakes across the bluegrass state and this will help set the stage for heavy rain and storms. That’s especially the case as we roll into late Wednesday and Thursday.

With the front slowing down out there today, scattered showers and storms will be possible. Highs will be in the mid and upper 80s for many. You will also notice a fairly big rise in humidity levels.

 

 

A strong area of low pressure will the slowly work eastward along the front later Wednesday into Thursday. That means rounds of strong thunderstorms that can put down some very heavy rains. I wouldn’t be surprised to see some areas picking up 2″ or more of rain during this time.

I have no changes to the forecast map I put on here this past weekend…

Special 2

Much cooler air will come in behind that system with upper 70s and low 80s for highs Thursday into Friday. Lows could drop into the 50s for Friday and Saturday mornings.

Another system looks to move in here Sunday into Monday. Many of the models bring another slightly cooler than normal air mass in here by the middle of next week.

Make it a great day and take care.

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The weather turns active this week

Good Monday, folks. We have a weather pattern taking shape, and it certainly doesn’t look like what you see during the dog days of summer. Areas of low pressure will shoot across the region this week, and that could bring some very heavy rain. Cooler air should also follow the boomers.

A cold front is right on top of the region Monday and will cause some showers and storms to develop. The greatest chance will be across the eastern half of the state, but anyone is fair game for a big boomer. I will have your tracking tools in a bit.

The setup for the middle of the week looks especially active. Check out the potent storm system working through the Ohio Valley:

Canadian

That could dump some very heavy rain across our part of the world. The Canadian Model shows the highest totals setting up right on top of us:

Canadian 2

Temps behind that system will come way down, with highs in the upper 70s and low 80s from Friday into the weekend. Lows during that time should drop into the 50s.

I leave you with your tracking tools for the day:

Latest Day 1 convective outlook

Current watches

Current Watches

Possible watch areas Current MDs

 

 

Have a great day and take care.

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A busy week of weather on the way

Good Sunday to one and all. We’re wrapping up the first weekend of August on a typical weather note. Don’t let this fool you because the weather over the next week looks anything but typical. This is a very active pattern taking shape during the supposed “dog days of Summer”.

Let’s start with where we are now and roll forward. Highs today will be in the mid and upper 80s for many with humidity levels up just a bit. Isolated showers and storms will be around.

Storm chances really increase later Monday as a cold front dives in here from the northwest. That front should have a line of showers and thunderstorms with it as it rolls into town.

NAM

A few of the storms could be on the strong side.

Winds turn northwesterly behind that boundary from late Monday into Tuesday. That’s a cooler overall flow, but it’s also a flow that becomes rather active.

A series of systems will drop in from the northwest through the rest of the week. This type of setup could lead to additional heavy rain problems:

Special 2

That’s a setup that bears watching, as we have had our fair share of high water issues already this summer.

Temps behind each system will cool down to below normal readings.

I leave you with today’s tracking tools:

Hamburg Area from WKYT Studio
Lexington

I-75 MP 127
Georgetown
I75 NB @ MP 127

US 60 @ US 460
Frankfort
US60 @ US460

Enjoy your Sunday and take care.

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Storms increase next week

Good Saturday, everyone. August is off and running on a pretty nice weather note across central and eastern Kentucky. The sun and pleasant temps will soon give way to some additional rounds of showers and storms. That’s especially true as we head into next week.

Highs today will be back into the middle 80s for much of central and eastern Kentucky. Humidity levels will remain in the comfortable range, but there is just enough juice to spark a pop up shower or storm.

Hamburg Area from WKYT Studio
Lexington

I-75 MP 127
Georgetown
I75 NB @ MP 127

US 60 @ US 460
Frankfort
US60 @ US460

Humidity levels and temps will both jump a bit on Sunday with mid and upper 80s and a small threat for isolated storms. Similar weather will be noted on Monday.

Scattered storms begin to increase by the middle of next week as a potent system dives in here from the northwest. That means we should actually see a pretty good increase in storms:

GFS

Heavy rainfall will be possible with that type of setup.

Much cooler air will come in behind that departing storm system. Check out the this look:

GFS 2

Nothing about that setup screams the dog days of summer!

Have a great Saturday and take care.

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A nice start to August

Good Friday and welcome to the final day of July. To say this month has been a soggy one would be an understatement. Lexington will finish with the top 5 wettest July on record with 9.66″. That makes the weather we have out there today even more impressive, and that looks to continue into the first day of August.

Highs today will be back into the low and middle 80s for most areas. Skies should stay mostly sunny with low humidity levels.

Hamburg Area from WKYT Studio
Lexington

I-75 MP 127
Georgetown
I75 NB @ MP 127

US 60 @ US 460
Frankfort
US60 @ US460

Saturday’s weather looks very nice with low and middle 80s as we start the new month. There is the smallest chance for a shower or thunderstorm late in the day. A slightly better chance will be with us on Sunday as temps hit the middle 80s.

Showers and storms should increase by Tuesday and that carries us into the middle of the week. That action is ahead of a BIG dip in the jet stream for the middle and end of next week. That should allow for much cooler than normal air to engulf much of the country:

GFS TEMPS 1Have a great last day of July and take care.

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Nice weather moves in

Good Thursday, everyone. The month of July is about to come to a rather tame end compared to how the rest of the month has been going. Temps and humidity are on the way down, and that trend should carry us into early August.

Our day starts with a cold front slipping through southern Kentucky. That front might still have a wayward shower or storm ahead of it. Much drier air slowly slides in from north to south behind the boundary. Highs Thursday will generally range from the low to middle 80s under sunny skies.

Friday’s weather looks awesome, with mostly sunny skies and highs from 80 to 85. Humidity will be fairly low to make for a winner of a weather day.

Our dip in the jetstream continues this weekend into early next week:

EuroA couple of systems could dive in from the northwest during this time. That would mean the chance of a scattered shower or storm will be with us.

A couple more cold fronts should slide in next week. That would keep our temps running below normal during what should be the hottest time of the year.

Have a great day and take care.

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Strong storms develop ahead of a cold front

Good Wednesday, everyone. We have a strong cold front getting ready to push across Central and Eastern Kentucky over the next few days. This front will bring additional rounds of strong thunderstorms and, eventually, some much better air.

Here’s a breakdown of what to expect:

– Temps Wednesday will be super steamy, with highs close to 90 in many areas. High humidity will make it feel hotter.

– Scattered storms will occur early in the day and then increase from there.

– Torrential rainfall and a ton of lightning will accompany any storm that develops. Some of the storms might also produce wind gusts of 45 mph.

– With so much moisture available for these storms, flash flooding is a real possibility on a local scale.

– The front moves through early Thursday, with temps and humidity coming down. Highs should generally range from the low to middle 80s. There could still be a storm or two early in the day.

– We send July out on a nice note, with highs Friday in the low and middle 80s under mostly sunny skies. August should begin on a similar note.

– Additional cold fronts will move through next week, and that means some additional shots of pleasant temps will be a good bet.

Let’s get back to tracking the storms we have out there Wednesday:

 

 

Current MDs

Latest Day 1 convective outlook

Current watches

Current Watches

Possible watch areas Current MDs

Have a great day and take care.

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Rounds of storms continue

Good Tuesday, everyone. Rounds of showers and storms continue to push across the Bluegrass State as steamy weather rolls on. All of this will slowly give way to some much better weather by the end of the week and into the weekend.

Highs on Tuesday will hit the upper 80s to near 90 in most areas. High humidity will make it feel a little warmer. This is very typical for this time of year. Scattered storms will be around Tuesday and Wednesday.

The storms later Wednesday may increase as a cold front swings in from the northwest. Some strong storms and very heavy rains will be possible. Here’s the progression for late Wednesday and Thursday morning:

NAMHighs by Thursday will come way down and should top out in the 80- to 85-degree range, with much lower humidity.

NAM 2A similar setup will be with us for Friday. Temps may spike toward normal over the weekend as another cold front gets ready to dive in from the northwest.

That’s the beginning of what should be a very cool first half of August for much of the country. Watch the progression in five-day increments:

CFS  CFS 2

CFS 3Let’s get back to the weather we have out there Tuesday. Your daily dose of tracking tools will walk you through it all:

Latest Day 1 convective outlook

Current watches

Current Watches

Possible watch areas Current MDs

 

 

Have a great day and take care.

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Tracking scattered storms

Good Monday, folks. It’s the last work week in July, and it’s giving us some fairly typical late-summer weather. It will be hot and steamy, and we have some scattered showers and storms to track. Enjoy it; big changes start late this week and really dig in for early August.

Highs Monday will range from the mid- to upper 80s, with a scattering of showers and storms. I will have your tracking tools coming up in a bit.

Highs will be near 90 on Tuesday and Wednesday, and the humidity will make it feel even hotter. Isolated showers and storms will again be possible.

A cold front drops in Thursday, with an increased chance of some boomers. This front will knock our temps down several degrees to end the week, and that’s just the beginning. Check out the big dips in the jet stream coming as we roll into the first few days of August:

Euro 2

The first half of August is likely to be much cooler than normal as cool shots come at us from the northwest. You can see these lined up all the way into central Canada next week:

Euro 3That’s going to really get those football juices flowing a little early this year!

Before we get to that point, we have some scattered storms to track:

Latest Day 1 convective outlook

Current watches

Current Watches

Possible watch areas Current MDs

 

 

Have a great Monday and take care.

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The last week of July features changes

Good Sunday, folks. We have a rather warm day going on across Central and Eastern Kentucky. This typical summertime air will hang around through the next few days, but changes show up as we say goodbye to the month.

Highs Sunday will range from the mid- to upper 80s in much of Central and Eastern Kentucky. Isolated showers and storms will be possible early, with a slightly higher chance coming during the evening.

Scattered showers and storms will increase from the northwest later Sunday night into Monday. A few strong storms could even fire up during this time. Here’s the NAM simulated radar:

NAM

Temps are likely to be a few degrees cooler because of the scattered storms and more clouds.

Tuesday into Wednesday could see temps spike close to 90 degrees. Isolated storms Tuesday could become much more widespread late Wednesday as a cold front moves in. That will be followed by much cooler air for later in the week into early August:

Euro

That cooler trend may carry us into much of the first half of August. The CFS forecast for early in the month is showing temps averaging solidly below normal for much of the country:

CFS 2Make it a great Sunday and take care.

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