Spring temps lead to a busy pattern

Good Monday to one and all. Temps out there today will be flirting with a record high as we go back into a super mild spring pattern. The same setup leading to this warm stuff will also lead us into a stormy look over the next few weeks.

Fog will start the day, but should lift later in the morning. That leaves us with partly sunny skies and temps nearing records in the low 70s. The record today is 72 degrees set last year.

Mild weather continues into Tuesday and Wednesday, but scattered showers and thunderstorms may come into play:

A potent storm system then develops in the plains states and works toward the Great Lakes and northern Ohio Valley on Friday. This could bring some big time thunderstorms to the region…

EuroMuch colder air comes in behind that system and we could even see some snowflakes this weekend.

This storm is likely to setup a classic seasonal battle between spring and winter. The seasonal transition toward spring will be met with Old Man Winter firing deep cold shots into the Midwest and plains states. Kentucky may go back and forth between the two and that spells some busy times:

Special 2

Big storm systems will fire up in the battle zone and that can bring lots of different conditions our way, based on each individual storm track. Severe weather and snow chances are there, depending on where each system goes. One thing is for sure, we are in the line of fire for heavy amounts of precipitation over the next few weeks. The European Ensembles precipitation show that flow right out of the western Gulf of Mexico:

Euro 2

Have a great Monday and take care.

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Spring temps surge back into the region

Good Sunday, folks. After a round of some spring showers, the spring temps are getting ready to surge back into central and eastern Kentucky. This could send us to near record highs on Monday.

Today starts gloomy with low clouds and a leftover shower, but some sunshine will be noted this afternoon. With the slower arrival of the clearing, temps today will be held in check a little bit. The numbers will be near 60 in the east to the low 70s in the far west.

Monday will see thermometers ranging from 70-75 in many areas. The record high in Lexington is 72 set all the way back in… 2016. 🙂

Strong southwesterly winds kick in ahead of a weak system moving through Tuesday and early Wednesday. That may touch off a scattered shower or thunderstorm as temps stay mild.

Thursday looks very warm as we get set for a pattern changing storm. This is one heck of a temperature change:

GFS GIf

That clash of the seasons will lead to a potent storm system with strong/severe storms ahead of it, and cold air and snowflakes behind it:

GFS

We will need to keep a close eye on the severe threat for Friday.

Spring and winter will then start to fight it out again with intrusions of cold bumping up against bubbles of spring air. The end result will be a very active storm track across our region. You can see that on the GFS Ensembles precipitation map:

GFS Rain

Moisture is aimed from the western Gulf right into the bluegrass state.

Have a sensational Sunday and take care.

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Spring pattern rolls on

Good Saturday, everybody. Some showers are pressing into the region, putting a temporary halt to our spring fling. Don’t worry; it’s about to come back with guns blazing for the week ahead of us.

Saturday will find a weak system bringing an increase in showers to the region. This will do a number on temps, with some big ranges showing up. Areas with rain will see highs in the 50s, and areas without the showers could hit the 60s.

That action moves away Saturday night, with lingering clouds into Sunday morning. Clearing skies take over, with afternoon highs taking off into the low and mid 70s across the west, and mid- to upper 60s east.

Monday looks downright warm and could break records in many areas. Highs from 70 to 75 look likely, with an outside shot of some areas seeing highs in the upper 70s.

The next system moves in a little quicker Tuesday and should deliver some later afternoon thunderstorms:

GFS

That will carry us into Wednesday, with temps coming down several degrees because of clouds and the chances of storms.

Gusty southwesterly winds should boost us back into the 70s by Thursday as we get set for a pattern changing storm system. This thing looks stout as it rolls in late Friday and Saturday:

GFS 2

Strong thunderstorms to some snowflakes are possible in that type of a setup.

Much colder air takes over for next weekend, and the models are trying to bring a system around the base of the trough:

GFS 3

That has a winter look to it.

The overall setup into early March looks active with winter fighting back into the country, doing battle with the seasonal changes toward spring. The active pattern shows up well on the precipitation forecast from the GFS ensembles during this time:

GFS Rain 2

Strong storms? Some snow? Both are on the table.

Make it a great Saturday and take care.

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Springing our way into the weekend

Good Friday to one and all. We’ve made it to our weekend, and spring is surging into the Bluegrass State. This will send highs to near-record levels next week, but the longer-range pattern suggests winter isn’t through with us.

Highs as we roll into the afternoon will hit 60 to 65 degrees in many areas. Skies could stay mostly sunny as gusty southwesterly winds kick in.

Saturday will feature highs in the 60s before showers move in during the afternoon and evening:

Euro

That moves out Sunday, with highs making a run into the 65- to 70-degree range. This leads us into the start of the week with highs ranging from 70 to 75 degrees in many areas. Records could be challenged during this time.

A cutoff low spinning across the Gulf states could throw enough moisture our way to produce scattered showers and thunderstorms by Wednesday:

Euro 2

Temps late next week may wind up much warmer as we get a pattern-changing storm to move our way. This wipes out the warmth with showers and thunderstorms:

Euro 6

For perspective on just how much the pattern is forecast to change. Take a look at the 500 mb maps from early next week to early the following week:

Euro 4

Euro 5

That’s actually a pretty good look for cold and snow lovers across the country. As I’ve said, this isn’t a pattern that will go straight into true spring. Winter won’t just go away without a parting shot or two.

Have a great day and take care.

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A serious case of spring fever

Good Thursday, folks. Milder winds are slowly kicking in out there, and this will blow a serious surge of spring into our part of the world. Mild weather will turn downright warm as we head into next week.

Highs on Thursday will be in the upper 40s to near 50, with partly sunny skies. Gusty winds might be the only weather complaint of the day.

Friday looks like a flat-out awesome weather day, with sunshine and highs in the low 60s:

Euro

The only drawback to the forecast comes later Saturday, with some scattered showers developing. This happens as a weak upper-level system passes through:

Euro 4

Highs Saturday will be in the 60- to 65-degree range and should really take off by Sunday. As skies become sunny, highs range from 65 to 70 in most areas.

Highs in the low to middle 70s then sweep in early next week:

Euro 2

There could be a shower or thunderstorm entering the picture by the middle of the week, and that might knock the temps down a few degrees. That could mean highs drop into the “chilly” upper 60s for a day.

No sweat; the 70s move back in later in the week ahead of a potent storm system:

Euro 3

It’s not too crazy to think about this pattern throwing an 80-degree reading somewhere across Kentucky.

The aforementioned storm will then move our way next weekend, wiping out our spring fling:

GFS

Winter is not dead. I keep trying to make this point, but it’s easy for people to get caught up in just how warm it has been of late. I get that. But, this isn’t a pattern that typically makes a seamless transition into “true” spring.

Have a great day and take care.

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Spring temps set to return in a big way

Good Wednesday, everyone. Old Man Winter is back in the Bluegrass State in a small way. Don’t blink because you might miss it. Spring is ready to kick back into high gear in the coming days.

Our day stars with temps in the 30s and a few snowflakes on the move. Far southeastern Kentucky might see a period of wet snow to kick things off. Later Wednesday, sunny skies return, with highs reaching the upper 30s and low 40s:

Milder winds will then kick in Thursday, as highs hit the 50s in the west and upper 40s to near 50 elsewhere. Much milder air then surges in for Friday, with most areas topping 60 degrees:

Euro 3A weak system will increase clouds on Saturday and might throw a shower our way:

Euro

Highs this weekend will be in the 60s and might hit 70 by Sunday, if the clouds get out. From there, it’s game on for potential record highs:

Euro 2

The interesting thing about computer forecast numbers in this setup is that they are usually underdone.

Have a great day and take care.

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A brief shot of chill before more spring

Good Tuesday to one and all. We are dealing with a couple of systems affecting the region over the next few days. These will bring a few showers that introduce a blast of chilly air. If you’re  fan of spring, no worries; it comes back in a big way this weekend.

Our day starts with a slight chance for light rain and light snow in the north, but that quickly moves away.

Our southern system then zips eastward, bringing some showers across the southern half of Kentucky. Farther north, the chance is smaller, with a mix of sun and clouds. Highs should range from the upper 40s to low 50s:

Winds will be gusty as colder air then filters in behind a cold front overnight. Highs Wednesday should be in the upper 30s to near 40, with a snow flurry possible.

That cold will not hold and will get booted out of here very quickly. Highs by Friday might hit 60 degrees, and it’s up, up and away from there.

The only drawback could come Saturday, with enough moisture to create a shower or two:

Euro 2

Highs will hit the 60s Saturday, then surge toward the 70s for Sunday and Monday. That happens with a big ridge of high pressure into the region:

Euro 3

Record highs could be threatened during this time.

The jet stream takes a big dip in the west, and that trough rolls eastward into the middle of next week. Several models now cut off that upper level system, instead of bringing the full trough in here:

Euro 4

If that is indeed the case, it would lead to unsettled weather, with showers and strong storms, but the mild weather would continue.

Have a terrific Tuesday and take care.

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Another wild temperature week begins

Good Monday, everyone. We are dealing with a seasonal start to the week, but our wild roller-coaster ride of temperatures is about to return. This will be complete with the potential for air cold enough for some snowflakes, and air warm enough to flirt with record highs.

Nothing like a little more extreme to get the weather juices flowing. 🙂

Seasonally chilly air settles in Monday, with lows in the 20s and highs in the 40s.

Tuesday will find us watching two systems trying to hook up and become a big storm system. “Trying” being the key word in that sentence. Although much closer together on the models, they are miss just to our south and east. Here’s the GFS:

GFS GIf

That’s a “close but no cigar” scenario that produces only some snow showers and flurries around here. The same can be said for the Canadian:

canadian

After a brief cold snap behind that system, temps will take off again by Friday and will last through the upcoming weekend. This happens as a big ridge of high pressure develops across the eastern half of the country, as a deep trough develops in the west. Eventually, that trough rolls east and replaces the ridge:

Euro

Record high temps in the 70s are possible next weekend, if that plays out as forecast.

As the cold air comes back into play, it could spawn some big time storm systems. Those show up well and take on more of a winter look:

GFS 2

With such extreme setups come extreme events, and we will be mindful of that going forward.

Have a great Monday and take care.

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Up and down weather pattern continues

Good Sunday, everyone. A cold front is pushing across central and eastern Kentucky, bringing a nice drop in temperatures. This continues to feed into the overall “up and down” theme of our winter weather pattern.

Scattered showers will be noted out there today, especially this morning. Winds are gusty and temps are very mild ahead of this front.  Temps will reach their high point early in the day, with falling numbers into the afternoon and evening.

Lows by Monday reach the 20s.

We continue to watch a system trying to come together from later Tuesday through Thursday. A deep trough digs into the Ohio Valley and east as a disturbance comes out of the southwest. If you want a big winter storm around here, you want to see these two come together. The model trend is to keep them separate until it’s too late for us:

Euro 2

Here’s what that looks like at the surface:

Euro

That’s still a nice shot of cold with some flurries or snow showers for our region. But, it would become another big snow for the northeast, where they are getting pounded AGAIN this weekend.

Behind that… it can get darn warm around here. If we look at the upper level setup, there’s a heck of a ridge building into our region as a deep trough develops in the west and works east:

Euro 3

Temps next weekend can easily hit 70 or better with an increasing threat for strong thunderstorms.

Have a great Sunday and take care.

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Spring is back in the Bluegrass

Good Saturday, folks. It’s another surge of spring temperatures taking over the fine commonwealth of Kentucky. This air isn’t going to last very long as a big temp drop sweeps in later Sunday. That sets the stage for a much colder and possibly wintrier week ahead.

Most areas hit 60 or highter Saturday, with clouds thickening and some scattered showers.

The numbers will then climb into the 60s Saturday night and Sunday morning. That’s right: The numbers climb.

The climb will stop right there as a cold front drops in from the northwest. Watch the temps crash:

NAM

Seasonal temps settle in for Monday and Tuesday as we watch to see what happens just after that. The European model is now going tor a full-blown hookup between a system coming in from the southwest and a system diving in from the north:

Euro 2

That blows up a huge winter storm that works from the southern states, up the East Coast from Tuesday night through Thursday:

Euro

That certainly is an attention-getter, but is it right? It keeps showing more and more of a connection, leading to a stronger storm, but other models keep the streams separate. If we don’t get a hookup, then we just get a one-and-done cold shot and a few snowflakes. Let’s watch the trends through the weekend.

Regardless of solutions, much milder air will then take over a few days later. I could even see the pattern throwing a severe weather event our way before another winter setup.

Have a great Saturday and take care.

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