May off to a warm start

Good Monday, everyone. It’s the first full week of May, but the weather pattern looks and feels more like the middle of summer. Temps are running well above average, and that should continue through the rest of the week.

Daytime highs should range from the low to mid-80s through Friday. There’s a shot at highs in the upper 80s by the second half of the week, and that would put us close to records.

Is this warm week a signal for what’s to come?

The latest CFS suggests the rest of May is warmer than normal around here:

CFS

The same model run then reverses that trend for the first half of June:

CFS 2

The rainfall forecast from the CFS through the middle of June shows about what one would expect with the wet year we have going:

CFS 3

I’m working on the summer forecast for WKYT and will have it out in another week or so. A strengthening second-year El Nino and the impact it will have on our weather is the focus of that forecast.

Make it a great Monday and take care.

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Warm and mainly dry days ahead

Good Sunday to one and all. We’re putting the wraps on an absolutely gorgeous Derby weekend in the bluegrass state. Warm temps and plenty of sunshine will be back with us today, and it only gets warmer from here.

Highs today will top out in the upper 70s to around 80 with a partly to mostly sunny sky.

Hamburg Area from WKYT Studio
Lexington

I-75 MP 127
Georgetown
I75 NB @ MP 127

US 60 @ US 460
Frankfort
US60 @ US460

Thermometers will should hit the 80-85 degree range for highs for most of the upcoming week. That warm air should be accompanied by mainly dry conditions.

The pattern features a deep dip in the jet stream with a warm ridge of high pressure across the Ohio Valley:

NAM

One of the things keeping the pattern pretty steady through the week is a possible tropical system developing off the southeastern seaboard. That shows up very well on the NAM simulated radar:

NAM 2

What does all this mean for us? A summer look and feel to the weather until further notice. The only real change during the week ahead is an increase in humidity for the second half of the week. That would lead to the potential for some isolated showers and thunderstorms.

Sounds a lot like summer to me.

Have a great Sunday and take care.

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A summer pattern takes shape

Good Saturday, all. It’s Kentucky Derby Day and we are all coming up winners out there with the weather. Sunshine will help boost our temps into the 70s for much of the region. Believe it or not… this will be the coolest day of the next week. Summer is coming way, way early.

The pattern for the week ahead is very unusual for this time of year. It features a big dip in the jet stream across the west with a very warm weather ridge around here. That’s now all… A tropical system will try to form off the southeastern coast.

EuroThat should put our part of the world in one heck of a warm setup. Highs may reach the mid and upper 80s before the week is finished:

GFS TEMPS 1

There is only the smallest threat for scattered storms for the middle and end of the week. Those chances may increase as we head into next weekend.

I leave you with all your Kentucky Derby Day tracking toys:

Hamburg Area from WKYT Studio
Lexington

I-75 MP 127
Georgetown
I75 NB @ MP 127

US 60 @ US 460
Frankfort
US60 @ US460

I-64 @ 3rd St. Exit
Louisville
I-64 @ 3rd St. Exit

Downtown Louisville @ 2nd & Broadway
Louisville
Downtown Louisville @ 2nd & Broadway

I-64 @ I-264
Louisville
I-64 @ I-264

I-264 @ Freedom Way
Near Louisville International Airport
I-264 @ Freedom Way

Have a great day and take care.

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A nice Kentucky Derby weekend

Good Friday and happy Oaks day. It’s the first day of May, and many eyes are on the Bluegrass State for Kentucky Derby weekend. Nice weather is always a bonus, and it seems that Mother Nature is going to cooperate.

Highs Friday will hit the mid- and upper 60s in much of Central and Eastern Kentucky, with a mix of sun and clouds.

Saturday will feature a mix of sun and clouds, with afternoon highs ranging from 70 to 75 across much of our region.

GFS TEMPS 1

That should make for one fantastic day at Churchill Downs.

The weather for Sunday looks even better, with highs topping out in the upper 70s to near 80. That’s the beginning of a weather pattern that looks and feels more like June than early May.

GFS 3

Highs next week should run mainly in the low 80s, with the possibility of highs in the mid-80s.

Isolated showers and thunderstorm chances will be with us but should slowly increase as we get deeper into the week.

Have a great day and take care.

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Warmer days on the way

Good Thursday, everyone. We have some ugly weather rolling across the region, but hang tough: Much warmer air is on the way. It kicks in for Kentucky Derby weekend and really gets cranking for the first full week of May.

The showers Thursday could be joined by a rumble of thunder. Highs will hang out in the upper 50s and low 60s as winds gust. Your tracking toys for the day:

 

 

Friday, Kentucky Oaks day, will start with some clouds and lows in the upper 30s and low 40s. The afternoon looks much better, with a mix of sun and clouds and highs in the mid- and upper 60s.

Saturday, Derby day, will be even better, with highs reaching the 70s and partly sunny skies.

From this point, it’s a summer preview settling in. Highs by Sunday will be close to 80 with the smallest chance for a shower or thunderstorm.

The pattern for next week looks even warmer:

GFSHighs in the middle 80s are possible on more than one occasion. Eventually, scattered thunderstorms will be possible.

Make it a great day and take care.

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Chilly showers possible Thursday

Good Wednesday to one and all. We have one more ugly weather day to go through before we can get to some nicer weather. The change toward warmer is expected to occur over Kentucky Derby weekend, and that’s a wonderful thing for the Bluegrass State.

A southern storm system will largely miss the state to our south and east. It might get close enough for a shower or two across southern and southeastern Kentucky in the afternoon. The rest of the region should see a mix of sun and clouds.

A potent upper level disturbance will then drop in Thursday. That will bring gusty winds, chilly air and scattered showers. A rumble of thunder is even possible as it sweeps through.

Highs will again run well below normal:

Euro

The forecast for Friday, Kentucky Oaks day, is for a mix of sun and clouds, with highs  in the 60s. The day looks to be a little breezy for folks heading to Churchill Downs.

Kentucky Derby day looks even better, with highs hitting the low 70s and partly sunny skies.

Temperatures will really take off from Sunday into next week. Highs might routinely flirt with 80 degrees or better. The only drawback will be a daily threat of scattered thunderstorms.

Many of the recent computer models continue to indicate a stormy and wet pattern for much of the region over the next few weeks:

GFS RainEnjoy your day and take care.

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Our cool pattern continues

Good Tuesday, everyone. It’s another much cooler than normal day across the Bluegrass State, and it looks as if that setup continues through the rest of the week. If you’re looking for some warmer weather, I have some good news coming by Derby weekend.

Our Tuesday is starting with a kiss of frost and lows in the 30s for many areas. Afternoon sunshine will allow for highs to climb into the low and middle 60s.

Clouds will increase Tuesday night and those clouds will spit out some showers into southern and Eastern Kentucky on Wednesday. That comes from a strong southern storm system:

Euro

That system will work up the east coast on Thursday as a strong upper level system dives into our region. That combination will then produce showers across the region Thursday:

Euro 2

Highs might have a hard time cracking the 60-degree mark.

Kentucky Oaks Day on Friday looks much much better with highs reaching the mid- and upper 60s:

Euro 3

Kentucky Derby day looks even better, with sunshine and highs in the 70s:

Euro 4We have a shot at cracking 80 on Sunday and Monday, with a slight chance of thunderstorms moving back in.

Have a great day and take care.

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April goes out on a chilly note

Good Monday, folks. We’re getting closer and closer to saying goodbye to one of the wettest months on record for Lexington. April has been very soggy, and we probably have a few more drops to go through before we close the door on the month. The bigger story for the remaining days of the month will be the chilly air.

We’ve been colder than normal for the past week, and that looks to continue through this week. Even with sunshine out there Monday, highs will be only in the upper 50s and low 60s for most areas.

Patchy frost is possible Monday morning and again Tuesday. Clouds will begin to increase Tuesday as a southern storm develops. That might throw some rain our way Wednesday and Thursday:

GFS

Dry air will move in behind that for Kentucky Oaks Day on Friday. Highs look to run in the 60s with sunny skies.

Saturday, Kentucky Derby day, continues to look good, with plenty of sunshine and highs hitting the 70s:

GFS Temps 2

That looks to be the beginning of a pretty warm pattern for the first full week of May. The overall pattern favors warmth for much of the country:

GFS Temps 4

Make it a magnificent Monday and take care.

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The threat of frost returns

Good Sunday, folks. We’re closing the weekend out on an improving weather note as drier air works in. This air will continue to run on the colder side of normal, and that sets the stage for the potential for more frost. Frosty mornings are likely for Monday and Tuesday.

In the short-term, early day showers will push away with some sunshine returning during the afternoon. Highs will reach only the upper 50s to low 60s on a day that normally gives us a high of about 70.

Lows for Monday and Tuesday will put green thumbs back on high alert as readings approach the freezing mark.

GFS Temps 3

Highs both days will be back in the upper 50s to low 60s.

Scattered showers will be possible Wednesday and Thursday as a big storm slowly works from the deep south into the northeast. That will keep our temps running below normal.

Kentucky Derby weekend is looking better, with highs making a run into the 70s with mainly dry weather.

Make it a sensational Sunday and take care.

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Tracking the severe storms threat

Good Saturday, everyone. It’s shaping up to be a busy weather day across Kentucky as rounds of showers and thunderstorms roll through. Some of these storms could become strong or severe as the day wears on.

Here’s a breakdown:

– General run of the mill showers and storms will be around for the first half of the day as a warm front slides through the state.

– This front will only get so far to the north before slowing down as low pressure sweeps in from the west. Areas along and south of that front and track of the low will have the best threat for severe storms.

– Damaging winds, large hail and a few tornadoes will be possible. That’s especially true for areas that break out into some afternoon sunshine and see thermometers climb into the high 60s and 70s.

– A 30 degree or greater temperature gradient is likely to be noted across the state today.

Your severe weather tracking tools:

Today’s risk area

Latest Day 1 convective outlook

Current watches

Current Watches

Possible watch areas Current MDs

 

 

 

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