Ugly weather is slow to leave

Good Thursday, everyone. Another round of rain is on tap for parts of central and eastern Kentucky today. This comes along with temps that continue to run much chillier than normal. That’s a pattern that takes us through the weekend, before a warm surge settles in next week.

Today’s showers will target southern and eastern Kentucky, with better weather the farther north and west you live. The models are spitting out some pockets of decent rains in the southeast by Friday morning:

Here are your radars to track the showers:

As you can see, the farther north, the better in terms of your Thursday weather. Highs will stay in the 50s for areas getting rain, with upper 60s outside the drops. Normal highs are now creeping into the low 70s.

Another cold front drops in late Friday, bringing a broken band of showers and thunderstorms. Winds will be rather gusty, with… Wait for it… Wait for it… another shot of chill for the weekend. Watch how the temps continue to run much colder than normal:

As a matter of fact, a frost is likely by Sunday morning. There is even the chance for temps to head below freezing and that’s showing up on the GFS:

Temps hit the 70s by Monday, with the potential for 80 degree highs by Tuesday and Wednesday. This will also likely kick off a pattern conducive for thunderstorms to develop. Those storms may be something we have to deal with in the lead up to Kentucky Oaks and Kentucky Derby days.

Make it a great day and take care.

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A warmer pattern shows itself

Good Wednesday to one and all. Temps this week continue to run much below normal, but a warmer look is showing up as we flip the calendar to May. This likely means a pretty warm Kentucky Derby week, with thunderstorms trying to crash the party.

There’s nothing warm out there today, but temps will be milder than the past few days. Highs should reach the low and middle 60s as we fight clouds for much of the state. Leftover showers may also be noted, especially in the east:

Thursday will find a mix of sun and clouds in the north, with the threat for showers to show back up across the southern half of the state. Because of this, temps may be all over the place.

The upper level system diving in here on Friday continues to look more progressive and less impressive:

Notice how that no longer closes off, but zips in and out without a lot of fanfare.  A few gusty showers will be noted, with a reinforcing shot of cooler than normal temps this weekend. Frost is possible by Sunday morning. Outside of that, the weekend looks pretty nice.

Things change early next week, bringing the 70s in here VERY quickly, with nice weather settling in. This is out longest and strongest stretch of true spring weather, so far. That ridge really pops into Kentucky Derby Week:

As I’ve mentioned for a few days, 80+ degree temps are likely to show up under that type of ridge. You can also see a deep western trough on the above map. In between the two, some big thunderstorms may roam. Watch how that pushes farther east by Derby weekend:

 

That setup can bring severe weather from the plains into the Ohio Valley at some point next week. This has been a very, very odd severe weather season across the country. Even as cold as it has been in Kentucky, we have still had 22 tornadoes already, which is way above normal for this time period. That’s 22 more tornadoes than Oklahoma and Kansas COMBINED. That’s right, the heart of tornado alley has not had a single tornado and the month of April is a week from wrapping up.

Kentucky’s 22 tornadoes are second only to Alabama’s 30.

Have a great Wednesday and take are.

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Active pattern continues

Good Tuesday, folks. An area of low pressure continues to spin across the bluegrass state today, leading to additional showers and storms. This system slowly moves away, but another one is ready to replace it by Friday.

If you’re looking for some springtime weather, hang tough, it’s coming for Kentucky Derby week. 🙂

As mentioned, today’s weather isn’t the best looking in the world. Locally heavy rains will be noted from time to time. Outside the rains, a few rays of sunshine will be noted. Track the drops:

Highs today will generally range from the upper 50s to low 60s. Those numbers may come down a bit on Wednesday:

From there, a big upper level system dives in from the northwest for Friday and Saturday:

That brings chilly showers our way, to go along with gusty winds. The high ground of the Appalachian Mountains may see some snowflakes out of this setup.

The chilly air will quickly be replaced by a major warm up, and that may start by Sunday. This leads us into Kentucky Derby week, with a big ridge of high pressure controlling our weather:

Temps can make a run at the 80s, but that trough in the west is going to try and kick east later in the week. That may mean a stormy pattern unfolds by Kentucky Derby weekend.

Have a great day and take care.

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Wet weather begins the last week of April

Good Monday, everyone. Rounds of showers and thunderstorms are targeting us as we kick off the final week of April. The rain is from a series of systems set to impact our weather through the weekend.

Can we change it up as we head into Kentucky Derby Week? Yes, and I will focus on that in a bit.

Let’s start with the wet weather we have out there today. This is coming from an area of low pressure spinning to our south, throwing moisture our way. Another system will then join the mxi by Tuesday and Wednesday, bringing some more scattered action.

The models continue to show some hefty totals by Wednesday:

Here are your radars to track today’s rain:

The system diving in here from Friday into the weekend is pretty darn impressive for this time of year. Check out how this thing looks at 500mb:

That type of look can bring some very chilly temps, gusty winds, showers and even some high elevation snowflakes.

The good news is that it isn’t going to hang around forever, with mother nature trying to flip a switch to spring as we head into Kentucky Derby week. Watch this big ridge develop across the eastern half of the country, sending the cold into the west:

Warm temps are likely to develop for the week, but we will need to be on guard for some big thunderstorms lurking as we get closer to the big weekend.

Make it a great Monday and take care.

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Wet weather ready to roll back in

Good Sunday, folks. It’s been a very nice, albeit cooler than normal, spring weekend in the bluegrass state. Temps out there today will continue to run below average, but it’s mainly dry. All that changes later tonight into the final week of the month, as rainy weather settles back in.

Highs today are generally in the low and middle 60s with clouds increasing. Showers and some thunder will develop across the west and south during the afternoon. That action overspreads the region tonight into Monday. Here are your radars to follow the drops:

That’s from our southern system working through the region, with another system coming in behind it for Tuesday and Wednesday.

The models continue to increase the rain numbers showing up:

Some local high water issues can’t be ruled out, especially in the west and south. Temps through the duration of the two events will run blow normal.

Speaking of below normal, the end of the week into the weekend continues to look crazy chilly for the end of April. This comes from a deep trough digging in here, bringing another round of showers and wind with it:

Canadian

GFS

That’s one ugly setup, with flakes potentially flying not too far from here. We will have to watch and see how it all evolves in the coming days.

Temps still look to recover as we head into Kentucky Derby week. My early impression is for a nice warm up, with thunderstorms making an appearance. At some point this may, we are likely to blow the lid off on this severe weather season.

Have a great Sunday and take care.

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Some ugly showing up in the week ahead

Good Saturday to one and all. With the start of the weekend being so nice, I hate to be the bearer of more bad news. But, someone has to do it and I’ve had plenty of practice this spring. 🙁 Another ugly setup is on the way for the final week of April. Sigh.

Let me begin with some positive and that’s what we have out there today. High are in the 60s with a mix of sun and clouds showing up. Your Sunday forecast isn’t that bad, with clouds thickening and the chance for some late day showers. Much of that should hold off until Sunday night, then continue through early next week.

That’s from two systems impacting out region. The first is Sunday night into Monday, with another dropping in from the northwest Tuesday and Wednesday. Both of those could combine for some 1″+ rains:

Gusty winds and below normal temps will be common as both systems roll through.

The setup for the end of the week into the weekend isn’t looking much better, and  at actually look worse. Check out this ugly system showing up:

That’s a very cold look coming from another deep trough across the eastern half of the country:

As that’s happening, bigger changes are going on in the Northern Hemisphere, leading to the possibility of the pattern flipping to warm as we head into May. Watch how the western ridge comes east, with the jet steam allowing the west to turn chilly for a change:

A pattern like that could bring 80s in the days leading up to Derby.

Enjoy your Saturday and take care.

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A nice looking start to the weekend

Good Friday to one and all. Our weather is looking pretty darn good across the Commonwealth as we head into the weekend. Granted, temps are cooler than normal, but the sunshine is certainly helping our cause.

The end of the weekend may feature a little different weather, with a southern storm system impacting us. I will get to that in a moment.

Let us start with today and roll forward. Highs will reach the upper 50s to low 60s, with mostly sunny skies. For perspective, normal highs this weekend are closing in on 70 degrees.

Saturday continues our nice weather as highs reach 60-65 for much of central and eastern Kentucky. Clouds will increase from west to east, ahead of our slow-mover of  a system rumbling and tumbling out of the lower Mississippi Valley.

That system will then throw some rain our way later Sunday into early next week. Watch how a cold front dropping in from the northwest, combines forces with that southeastern storm, lifting it up along the east coast:

GFS

Canadian

That’s a setup you would normally see in winter. Shocking, I know. It will lead to a continuation of the colder than normal temps through the rest of April.

Have a fantastic Friday and take care.

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The chill is back in the bluegrass

Good Thursday, everyone. It’s the unwanted gift that keeps on giving… Cold weather is back in central and eastern Kentucky. This won’t be as cold as what we had a few days ago, but it’s a harsh reminder that true spring isn’t ready to settle in just yet.

Temps this morning are in the 30s, but should hit the upper 40s to near 50 for much of the region. Clouds will be stubborn and there’s even a chance for some sprinkles or flurries early today:

As those skies clear up tonight, it sets the stage for ANOTHER freeze. Lows by Friday morning will be in the upper 20s for many:

Afternoon temps will warm into the upper 50s to low 60s, but that’s still well below where we should be for this time of year. Keep in mind, normal highs are now approaching 70 degrees.

The weekend will be dry to start, with the chance for rain to move in later Sunday. That comes from a slow-moving southern system rolling along the deep south. It gets close enough to throw some rain our way:

That keeps temps below normal, with an even colder blast potentially impacting our weather by the middle of next week.

Make it a great Thursday and take care.

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Another cold front blows in

Good Wednesday, everyone. It’s a windy and warm day taking shape, but this isn’t going to last very long. A cold front is on the way this evening, bringing another shot of chill to the region for Thursday. Yes, I know what you’re thinking… Sigh.

Strong southwesterly winds will boost our temps into the 70s today:

I could see eastern Kentucky flirting with 80 degrees on that gusty southwest wind.

This is ahead of a fast-moving cold front zipping in from the northwest this evening. A broken band of showers and thunderstorms will be possible ahead of the front:

Here’s regional radar to track whatever fires up:

That’s a big wind maker blowing through, with an outside shot at some morning snow flurries on Thursday. Don’t put away those winter coats because highs may stay in the low 40s for some:

Temps slowly rebound from Friday into Saturday and may get closer to normal. Our weekend system continues to trend much farther to the south and may not have much of a wet weather impact on our region. If that’s the case, our temps may be within the normal range into early next week.

Still, the setup through the end of the month is skewed colder than normal overall. The CFS through April 3oth:

It’s interesting to note how the model is trying to flip a warmer switch for the month of May:

Have a wonderful Wednesday and take care.

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Chillier than normal pattern remains

Good Tuesday, folks. We have a better looking day taking shape across much of our region, but the overall pattern continues to be skewed colder than normal. We also continue to track a fairly active setup.

Let’s begin with today and roll forward. We start with temps in the 20s and end with thermometers making a run at 60 degrees. Skies will be partly to mostly sunny.

Highs by Wednesday may sneak into the low 70s. That comes as our winds become westerly then southwesterly, ushering in a mild day:

That’s ahead of another system coming in Wednesday night. This could touch off a broken band of showers and storms:

Much colder air comes back into play on Thursday. Readings may not get out of the 40s for highs.

The next storm system still looks to arrive later this weekend. It’s a bowling ball looking storm, with Kentucky as one of the pins:

The overall pattern across much of the country continues to be skewed colder than normal through the rest of the month. Here’s the CFS through the final day of April:

With normal temps continuing to climb with each passing day, below normal doesn’t mean true winter stuff, it just means ugly for this time of year. Some milder days will be noted, but you get the idea about the overall picture.

Have a great day and take care.

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