Active winter pattern ahead

Good Sunday to one and all. Old Man Winter came roaring back into the bluegrass state and it appears he’s gonna stick around a while. We are beginning a very active period of winter weather as we close out January and say hello to February.

The snow from Friday night was impressive and has actually put Lexington into the above normal category on the winter. Here are some stats I shared on twitter:

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Lexington officially recorded 5″ of snow last night. Puts above normal for January and near normal for the winter. #kywx #WKYTRulesWinter

— Chris Bailey (@Kentuckyweather) January 24, 2015

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Since November 1 Lexington has had 6.6″ of snow. Almost 1″ above normal and .1″ above this same time last winter. #kywx #WKYTRulesWinter

— Chris Bailey (@Kentuckyweather) January 24, 2015

Where do we go from here? I have a whole lot of model maps to break things down for you.

The first set of maps deal with a clipper working in here later today into Monday. There continues to be a slight adjustment to the south on the track of this clipper. The GFS…

GFS

The NAM…

NAM

While the track on both models is a bit farther south, we would still need that to drop a littler farther south for the best snows to fly across Kentucky. As of now, showers develop Sunday with a quick switch to light snow Sunday night into Monday. Some accumulation can’t be ruled out. That’s also a very windy system that blows up into a monster as it turns the corner up the east coast. We may see a blizzard develop in the northeastern part of the country.

A weak system dives in behind that Monday night into Tuesday…

NAM 2

That won’t show up well on the models, but you can see the NAM is spitting out a stripe of snow from working in from northwest to southeast. Those can sometimes bring sneaky snow accumulations.

Things turn quiet by Wednesday before another clipper moves in late Thursday into Friday. The GFS…

GFS 2

The European Model…

Euro 2

That may bring another chance of showers ahead of it and light snow behind it.

That leads us into the weekend and several models continue to indicate the potential for a much bigger storm system impacting our region. Here’s the GFS…

GFS 3

That’s a week away and a lot can change, but the models have been showing the storm signal for several days in a row.

Storm or no storm… arctic air sweeps in during this same time and that’s how we open up the month of February.

Make it a  great day and take care.

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Tracking more snow chances

Good snowy Saturday, everyone. Much of the area is waking up to a blanket of heavy, wet snow. This is causing a lot of headaches on area roads as many will remain snow covered and icy through early afternoon.

Snow totals range from around 1″ to as high as 6″ for parts of the bluegrass region. This will go down as one of the bigger snows Lexington has had in the past few years.

Some morning snow will be hanging tough across the eastern part of the state while the rest of the region sees partly cloudy skies. Highs temps will stay in the low and mid 30s for many.

Another system will work our way by late Sunday and will deliver a few showers and gusty winds by the afternoon. Much colder air comes in quickly with some light snow taking over  as we head into Sunday night and Monday:

GFSThat could put down a light snowfall by Monday morning. Another weak system drops in with some light snow and flurries on Tuesday.

One more clipper zips through here by the end of the week and that will be followed by the potential for a much bigger system. The GFS is going nuts with it next weekend:

GFS 3We shall see how that works out.

Let’s get back to the weather we have today. Here are your tracking tools:

Hamburg Area from WKYT Studio
Lexington

I-75 at MP 36
London
I-75 @ MP 36

I-75 at MP 23
Corbin
I-75 @ MP 23

I-75 @ Winchester Road Lexington

I-75 @ Winchester Road

I-75 @ Clays Ferry Bridge South Between Lexington and Richmond

US 60 @ US 127 Frankfort

US60 @ US127

Make it a great day and take care.

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Winter weather tracker- UPDATED

UPDATE

Good evening, gang. Moderate to heavy snow continues to break out across our region. Some spots have already picked up 1″-2″ and another inch or two will fall through the evening into tonight.

Roads are already snow covered across parts of the Lexington area and down the Bluegrass Parkway corridor. Areas northeast of Lexington will also see the snow picking up in coverage and intensity.

Your tracking tools are below.

PREVIOUS UPDATE

Good Friday to one and all. A storm across the Deep South is throwing moisture into the Bluegrass State, and this means winter weather will increase. This action starts early Friday and continues into early Saturday.

A wintry mix of rain and snow will move in from the south this morning. Temps will continue to drop Friday evening, and we are likely to see a moderate band of snow setting up. This looks to be very close to the Lexington metro and into northeastern Kentucky.

It will be within this band that the greatest chance of accumulating snow will be found. Here’s a look at my latest thought on where that sets up:

SPECIAL

I have the blog all set to track Friday’s winter weather.

Hamburg Area from WKYT Studio
Lexington

I-75 at MP 36
London
I-75 @ MP 36

I-75 at MP 23
Corbin
I-75 @ MP 23

I-75 @ Winchester Road Lexington

I-75 @ Winchester Road

I-75 @ Clays Ferry Bridge South Between Lexington and Richmond

US 60 @ US 127 Frankfort

US60 @ US127

Updates will come your way as needed. Take care.

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Update on the Friday night snow potential

Good evening, folks. Here are my latest thoughts on the potential for some sticking snow late Friday into early Saturday.

SPECIAL 2 SPECIAL

Enjoy the evening and take care.

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Tracking a possible light snow-maker

Good Thursday, everyone. Our string of awesome weather days is about to come to a crashing end. Old Man Winter is ready to fight back into the Bluegrass State later Friday into Saturday and could put down a light snowfall.

A potent storm system is rolling across Texas and will work into the deep south on Friday. That storm will then work toward the Outer Banks of North Carolina and then up the East Coast on Saturday.

A track like that can deliver some accumulating snows to our region. Here’s a breakdown:

– Light rain and a mix will increase from southwest to northeast Friday afternoon and evening.

– As the precipitation falls, temps will do the same. That means a switch to a period of light snow later Friday evening into Saturday morning.

– This doesn’t look like a big snowfall right now, but some sticking snow appears to be a good bet. Here’s a look at the areas with the best chance of seeing that:

Special- That is subject to change depending on how the low tracks. A farther west track would give us a better chance for sticking snow. The opposite would be true if the low goes farther to the east.

Between now and then, the weather out there today looks pretty good. Highs will hit the 40-45 degree range with a mix of sun and clouds. There is also the smallest chance of a sprinkle or snow flurry.

I will update as needed later Friday. Make it a good one and take care.

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Winter weather for the weekend?

Good Wednesday to one and all. Our run of mild weather is ending as much colder air pushes back into the Bluegrass State. This will set up a pattern that could bring a couple of winter weather-makers our way by the weekend.

Let’s start with where we are Wednesday.

Highs will hit the mid and upper 40s in many areas as a weak cold front slips through. There will be a mix of sun and clouds with the slightest chance of a shower.

Colder air will then settle in for Thursday ahead of s southern storm system. This bad boy has been well telegraphed for more than a week, but the track on it has varied. Many of the models over the past several days have shown this storm tracking well to our south and east. That is now changing.

Let’s review the track of this storm on some of the latest model runs. The GFS snow brings a lot of precipitation into our region:

GFS

Much of that would fall as wet snow Friday into the first half of Saturday.

The European Model started the trend of bringing this system farther north and west, but the latest run is just a tad east:

Euro

That’s still a hit of wet snow for parts of our region as the storm wraps up along the East Coast.

A couple trends are becoming apparent:

1. This looks like a stronger storm.

2. Because of that, it takes a farther north and west track and affects Kentucky. Again, that’s the current snapshot of how things are looking. Stay tuned.

The system that follows that late in the weekend is also showing up stronger, with more of an impact on our weather. We have a hefty upper-level system diving into the eastern trough as a big ridge develops along the West Coast:

GFS 2

On face value, that’s a setup for snow across our part of the world. As you know, I’ve been focusing more on the upper levels with this weekend, but the lower levels are now catching on. Here’s the European Model:

Euro 2

The GFS isn’t too far behind:

GFS 3

If the upper level forecasts are right — if – then the surface system might continue to trend deeper in the coming days. I suspect that a lot of that might be determined by what happens with our Friday-Saturday storm across the east.

I will have updates as needed. Have a great day and take care.

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Colder air slowly pushes in

Good Tuesday, everyone. Our run of nice temperatures is about to come to an end as colder air bleeds in from the northwest. This colder air will take us back to around normal for the rest of the week.

Highs Tuesday will be back in the 50-degree range in many areas, with partly sunny skies. Clouds and winds will increase and a late day shower will be possible. That’s ahead of the cold front from the northwest.

Highs over the next few days will be in the upper 30s and low 40s, with the slightest change for a snow shower or flurry.

The southern storm that follows that looks as if it will stay away from us, but the European Model now has it grazing southeastern Kentucky:

Euro 2

As always, we shall see.

The more likely shot at some snow comes this weekend, as a system dives in from the northwest. Watch how this thing digs in as a big ridge jumps out west:

EuroThat’s a setup upstairs that can lead to a fairly potent system trying to develop. As I started earlier, the seasonal trend suggests a hearty helping of “wait and see.”

Make it a great Tuesday and take care.

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A winter break starts the week

Good Monday to one and all. The new week is off and running on a pretty good weather note. Our Martin Luther King, Jr. Day will feature some sun and pleasant temperatures. While we are nice now… a series of cold fronts will sweep winter back in here as the next week wears on.

Highs today will hit the upper 40s and low 50s under mostly sunny skies. Winds will be a bit breezy, but we really can’t complain about this type of weather.

Hamburg Area from WKYT Studio
Lexington

Tuesday will find similar temps across the region as clouds increase ahead of a cold front. That front may bring some showers into town by the evening hours with much colder air to follow by Wednesday. That’s when the European Model shows a weak wave of low pressure and the possibility of some light snow showers:

Euro

That’s a seasonal brand of cold that settles in for the second half of the week. It’s really nothing out of the ordinary, but is a decent drop from where we are today.

With a dip in the jet stream developing, we have to watch for clipper systems to dive in here from the northwest. The European Model is keying on a strong clipper by later in the weekend:

Euro 2

That has been a constant signal on the models, but it goes against the winter trends, so far.

Make it a great Monday and take care.

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Cold front arrives early today

Good Sunday, everyone. We’re tracking a cold front across the bluegrass state today. This will usher in much colder air to go along with some early day rain and snow showers. It’s the first in a series of fronts that will usher in colder and colder air for the week ahead.

Today’s front swings through pretty early with a rain or snow shower possible. Gusty winds will blow some colder air into town with highs in the upper 30s to low 40s.

From that point… it’s looking more and more like we will be tracking several systems in from the northwest. That’s a pattern that has been non-existent this winter and is one that usually brings snows our way. Our first system rolls in on Tuesday with some rain and snow showers. A period of light snow and flurries will then try to kick in for a couple of days afterwards…

GFS 2That’s from the morning run of the GFS and that same run brings a clipper in here by Friday…

GFS 3

A few days later comes another clipper on the European…

Euro

It’s a pattern that trends colder with each passing system and is one that likely opens the floodgates to arctic air later in the month into February.

Make it a great Sunday and take care.

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Best weather day of the month

Good Saturday, everyone. I’m not going to pull any punches… today is likely the best weather day of the entire month of January. Of course, that’s not a tough call after all the gloomy and cold weather we’ve been seeing over the past few weeks. It’s also not a tough call with more winter weather on the way.

Highs today will hit the 50-55 degree range for many with partly to mostly sunny skies.

A cold front will swing into town as we head into early Sunday and that could bring a few rain or snow showers our way. The GFS shows some light moisture in the colder air:

GFSHighs for Sunday will reach the upper 30s and low 40s.

Monday will find better weather pushing in ahead of another cold front. Monday temps should be back into the 40s with some sun and clouds. That next front hits on Tuesday with the potential for a late day rain or snow shower.

This ushers in much colder air for the middle and end of next week with the possibility of some light snow makers.

The pattern from later next week into the following week keeps looking very cold with a blocking ridge showing up across Alaska…

Euro That carves out one deep trough on the European Ensembles. The Canadian Ensembles are seeing something similar…

CanadianThe GFS Ensembles are also bringing the core of the cold into our region…

GFS

Make it a great Saturday and take care.

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