Waiting on cooler changes

Good Monday, folks. It’s the first full week of fall, but things are starting out on a rather toasty note. If you’re looking for some of the cool stuff, hang in there. It’s on the way later this week and the weekend.

Highs through Wednesday are deep into the 80s … again.

A fall cold front then arrives late Wednesday, with some isolated showers and storms along it. Another system then dives in behind that Friday and early Saturday:

That’s a shot of weekend chill, with the potential for highs on the 60s Saturday and lows nearing 40 by Sunday morning.

From there, we watch another system diving in from the northwest by later Monday into Tuesday.  Here’s the European model:

You can also see how the model has some kind of disturbance coming out of the eastern Gulf or off the east coast of Florida.

The GFS is similar in the overall theme of the forecast:

Each of these system diving in over the next few weeks will feature chilly shots of air coming in behind them. It’s the season!

Make it a marvelous Monday and take care.

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Fall temps ready to fight back

Good Sunday, everyone. We continue to deal with steamy temps across our part of the world, and that’s causing frustration for us fans of fall. Hang in there, my friends, much cooler weather is on the way in the week ahead.

Highs out there today continue to run on the toasty side with mid and upper 80s. Just like in previous days, there’s a chance for a shower or storm going up:

Similar weather will be noted on Monday and Tuesday, before the changes arrive. I will talk about those changes in a few.

Hurricane Maria continues to slowly work between Bermuda and the Bahamas:

Hurricane Infrared GOES East

The storm is going to make a run at the North Carolina coast by Wednesday or Thursday. The latest track from the National Hurricane Center has North Carolina in the cone of uncertainty:

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Back here in the bluegrass state, a fall cold front arrives later Wednesday or Thursday. A broken band of showers and storms will accompany this front. Much cooler air then filters in behind the front and takes us into the weekend:

Make it a great day and take care.

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Fall starts with some sizzle

Good Saturday to one and all. It’s the first full day of fall, but it feels more like the dog days of summer. Highs are deep into the 80s and this is a trend that continues for a few more days, before chilly changes move in next week.

With today’s warm and muggy air mass, I can’t rule out isolated showers and storms going up:

This steamy setup will then continue into early next week.

Hurricane Maria continues to churn away east of the Bahamas. Here’s the latest on the still major storm:

Hurricane Infrared GOES East

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Back here in Kentucky, we are tracking a fall cold front our way for the second half of the week. This front arrives on Wednesday with a broken band of showers and storms. This may be followed up by another storm system next weekend:

Chilly temps will then sweep in behind the initial cold front.

With fall underway, it’s time to start thinkin ahead to later fall and winter.

While I keep looking over the analogs and data, I’m also looking at some of the seasonal forecast models. While I don’t put a ton of stock in these models, they can offer some clues at where things are headed.

The CSA Model comes up with a forecast based purely on soil moisture. Here is the month by month breakdown from November through January:

 

That model would make for a very fun winter around here!

The CFS Model changes a gazillion times a week, and I’m really not a fan of the model data beyond one month. Still, the latest update had a cold November and December:

Have a great day and take care.

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Summer temps as fall arrives

Good Friday to one and all. Fall officially arrives shortly after 4 p.m., but summer temps are putting in a little overtime. Toasty temps roll on through the weekend and into early next week, but big changes come our way next week.

Let’s start with Friday.

Highs will top out in the middle 80s for much of the state, with just a small chance of isolated showers and storms:

High school football fans can expect a warm one with temps generally in the muggy mid- and upper 70s.

Our weekend forecast looks a lot like what we have out there Friday. Highs will be in the middle 80s with mainly dry skies. The air will be very muggy for this time of year.

The Cats and the Gators do battle at Kroger Field on Saturday evening. Here’s what to expect:

  • Tailgating will be very toasty. Highs will be in the middle 80s with a hot sun, so be sure to use the sunscreen.
  • Kickoff temp should be in the upper 70s with fair skies and light winds.
  • Temps will drop through the 70s for the rest of the game, with low 70s as things are wrapping up.
  • Go Big Blue! 🙂

Chilly changes finally start to work our way by the middle and end of next week. A big-time fall cold front sweeps across the Bluegrass State by late Wednesday or Thursday. That should give us some showers and thunderstorms ahead of the boundary.

The models are now developing another low pressure behind this front, giving us a chilly and wet period:

Temps would run well below normal:

I’m also watching Hurricane Maria working across the Caribbean. The latest forecast on this storm keeps it off the southeastern coast through early next week:

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Make it a good one and take care.

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Late-summer warmth continues

Good Thursday, everyone. We continue with a pattern featuring temperatures above normal for the second half of September. This looks to continue for the next several days, but a much colder look develops later next week.

In the short term, it’s about the summer warmth and isolated storms. Highs Thursday are generally in the low and middle 80s. Watch for a storm or two to pop as the day wears on:

The setup through the weekend will be very similar. Highs will be in the low and middle 80s, with only a small threat of a storm.

The Cats and the Gators get after it at Kroger Field on Saturday evening. Kickoff temps will be in the upper 70s, and then dropping through the 70s during the game. Things look dry.

Hurricane Maria continues to plow through the Caribbean:

Hurricane Infrared GOES East

The track on this might take it very close to the Carolinas by early next week:

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That’s something we will have to keep a very close eye on in the coming days.

Jose continues to do a loop, weakening over the cooler waters off the northeastern coast:

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Here in the Bluegrass State, a big pattern change is coming by the end of next week. This will take us back into a colder-than-normal setup as we say goodbye to September and hello to October.

Take a look at the five-day temperature departures from the CFS model over the next 30 days:

 Make it a great day and take care.

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More of the same on the way

Good Wednesday, everyone. We continue to be in the middle of a warmer than normal setup, tying to balance out the extreme cool we had for the first half of September. This warm air will then carry us through early next week, before we flip back to cool.

Highs Wednesday are generally in the low 80s, with the threat of a shower or thunderstorm. Here are your radars to track the action:

The broken record of a forecast looks to continue for the next several days. Highs will range from 80 to 85 through the weekend. Each day will feature a mix of sun and clouds, with a slight chance of showers and storms.

Hurricanes Jose and Maria continue to threaten the East Coast, but the trend is to keep both from making landfall anywhere in the United States:

Hurricane Infrared GOES East

Jose continues to weaken as it loops off the northeastern coast:

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The loop from Jose is likely to draw Maria on a more northward turn, which could spare the East Coast. Here’s the track from the National Hurricane Center:

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For us, the pattern starts to cool again by the end of next week. The GFS Ensembles show another round of below normal temps as we flip the calendar from September to October:

The GFS Ensembles show this chilly shot as we end the month…

Have a great day and take care.

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Tracking showers and storms

Good Tuesday, everyone. We are tracking an increase in showers and storms out there as our late summer warmth hangs on. This same setup is likely to carry us through the rest of the week and into the weekend.

Highs Tuesday range from the upper 70s to the low 80s, with showers and storms increasing. Some locally heavy downpours are possible:

I like this forecast so much, I’m going to keep repeating it each day through Sunday. There’s a daily threat of scattered storms, with highs generally ranging from 80 to 85 degrees.

The forecast for Kentucky’s football game against the Florida Gators at Kroger Field remains the same. Temps should be in the 70s during the game, with a slight chance of a storm.

Jose and Maria continue to steal the weather show, with each a threat to the East Coast. Jose is pulling closer to the northeast, while Maria is barreling through the Caribbean as a major hurricane:

Hurricane Infrared GOES East

Jose will bring tropical storm-force conditions to coastal areas of the northeast and might do a loop over the next few days:

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That loop will have a big role in determining what happens with Maria. Here’s the current five-day forecast from the National Hurricane Center:

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It will be interesting to watch Jose and Maria play off each other in the coming days. That’s a setup you would normally find in the western Pacific, and not on our side of the globe.

Just beyond the next week, the pattern probably flips chilly across the eastern half of the country. The European ensembles from WeatherBell show a rather dramatic shift to cold as we end September:

Make it a great day and take care.

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Scattered storms start a warm week

Good Monday to one and all. We continue to deal with higher-than-normal temperatures, but scattered storms are jumping into the mix. This action is likely to hang around through the next week or so. As all this happens, the tropics continue to crank.

Highs Monday are again in the low 80s in many, with scattered storms firing up. The most likely chance of storms will be across the central and western parts of the region:

Each day through Friday will feature conditions similar to what we have out there Monday. Daytime highs will range from 80 to 85 degrees, with a chance of scattered storms.

Saturday evening will be wild at out Kroger Field as Florida comes to town to take on the undefeated Kentucky Wildcats. Tailgate temps will be in the low 80s with game temps generally in the 70s. There is a slight chance for a storm to go up.

The tropics continue to go wild, with three named storms. Two of those storms, Jose and Maria, are of immediate interest to the east coast:

Hurricane Infrared GOES East

Jose will likely stay just off the New England coast, but should bring tropical storm force winds to many areas. Here’s the National Hurricane Center track:

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There’s a chance for Jose to do a little loop and make a second run at our coast.

Down in the Caribbean, Maria is developing into another major Hurricane and will impact many areas recently devastated by Irma:

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Maria will likely make a run at the southeastern coast by the weekend or early next week. Exactly where Maria goes may be dictated by how much of a loop Jose does out in front.

Looking down the road through October, we are likely to see some pretty decent early season cold shots around here. The extended run of the European Model suggests flakes will fly in the Appalachian Mountains before October ends:

That would indicate a healthy early season snowpack becoming established in Canada, with a lot of snows out west in the Rockies. The snow pack in Canada backs up my thoughts on a possible earlier than normal start to winter around here.

Make it a great day and take care.

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Scattered storms for the week ahead

Good Sunday, everyone. Slightly warmer than normal temperatures are back in the bluegrass state, with scattered storms ready to join the end of summer party. As all this is going on, the tropics continue to be very, very active.

Let’s start back here at home and expand our view to the tropics.

Highs today are generally in the low 80s with a mix of sun and clouds. Skies stay mainly dry until later Monday, when the threat for scattered storms return to the region. The threat for scattered storms will then continue on and off through the rest of the week and the GFS rainfall forecast shows this well:

Hurricane Jose continues to churn off the east coast and may brush the northeastern US in the next few days:

Hurricane Infrared GOES East

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Two more tropical systems have formed in the Atlantic:

The lead system is likely to develop into a hurricane and plow into the Caribbean in the coming days:

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This may very well threaten the southeastern states by next weekend or early the following week.

Make it a great Sunday and take care.

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Summer’s last stand

Good Saturday to one and all. As we get ready to close the door on a much cooler-than-normal summer, Mother Nature decides to make it feel like summer. A seasonal brand of warmth has arrived and should carry us through the next week and change.

Let’s start with Saturday.

Highs are generally in the upper 70s to low 80s. Our sky will feature some sun and clouds doing a little dance, and I can’t totally rule out isolated showers and storms:

Our weather for the week ahead will feature highs in the 80s and lows in the 60s. There is a better chance for scattered storms going up, starting Monday.

Hurricane Jose continues to churn northeast of the Bahamas:

Hurricane Infrared GOES East

Here’s the latest track forecast from the National Hurricane Center:

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The GFS takes this storm toward the northeastern states, with a decent impact:

The Canadian Model has much more of a direct hit in the northeast:

There are several other tropical systems of interest well out in the Atlantic:

There’s a chance one of those threatens the southeast in about a week from now.

Have a great Saturday and take care.

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