Tracking a winter storm toward Kentucky

Good Tuesday to one and all. Another winter storm is getting ready to slam the bluegrass state over the next couple of days. This continues to look like a heavy rain to snow and sleet setup across our part of the world. Throw in the potential for record cold to follow, and you have one harsh first week of weather for March.

Here’s a breakdown of what to expect:

– A warm front lifts northward across the state today and will bring a brief spike in temperatures. A light mix and some light rain will be possible early today before the milder air gets in.

–  A few gusty showers will be possible into the evening hours as temps rise well into the 50s.

– Our arctic front drops into the region late tonight with some heavy rain ahead of it early in the day. That could lead to some local high water problems. This does not look like a major flood event.

– Arctic air oozes in from west to east changing the rain to heavy sleet and snow during the day into the evening. Significant accumulations are likely through Thursday morning.. Here’s my latest forecast:

SPECIAL

– With the combination of sleet and snow falling, it will be tough to pinpoint exact amounts. Areas that are mainly snow will push double digits. Areas with more sleet than snow will wind up on the low side of the scale. Either way… this is a very high impact winter storm.

– The cold coming behind this for Thursday into Friday is nothing short of amazing to see on the models. Single digit lows are almost a given, with many models showing zero or below. The GFS goes crazy with Friday morning lows:

GFS Temps

– That is likely overdone, but is an indication of just how crazy this setup is over the next few days.

Here’s your daily dose of tracking tools:

I will have updates as needed later today. Make it a good one and take care.

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Winter storm potential

Good Monday evening, folks. Our developing winter storm continues to target the bluegrass state in the coming days. Heavy rain and possible flooding will give way to the potential for significant snow and ice accumulations Wednesday into Thursday.

A Winter Storm Watch and a Flood Watch are out for much of the state…

Here’s my very early call for sleet and snowfall…

SPECIAL 2

Still plenty of time to fine tune amounts as this system comes into better focus.

Take care.

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A wild week of weather

Good Monday to one and all. March is off and running with a continuation of the active weather pattern from February. That means we have a lot of wild weather on the way over the next several days. Everything from heavy rain and high water to heavy snow and sleet. Buckle up for the ride!

A modified arctic front moves through early Monday and knocks our temps well below freezing with some very light snow or flurries for a time. Watch for some slick spots to start the day.

Temps begin to increase Tuesday as a warm front lifts to our north. Gusty showers and some rumbles of thunder will be possible. Locally heavy rain will be a good bet, and that could cause some flooding problems. It looks as if the heaviest rain comes Tuesday night.

We have a strong arctic cold front moving in Wednesday that will spawn a couple of waves of low pressure. I’ve been highlighting this threat for a while, and the models are now beginning to settle in on the potential.

The latest NAM highlights heavy snow and sleet for much of the region:

NAM 3

NAM 2Keep in mind, those are just a snapshot of what one computer model suggests will happen from Wednesday to Thursday morning.

We still have a few days to figure out exactly how this system plays out. We might go from local flooding to a winter storm in just a few hours.

I will have updates as needed. Here are your tracking tools for the day:

Hamburg Area from WKYT Studio
Lexington

I-75 @ Winchester Road Lexington

I-75 @ Winchester Road

 

I-64 MP 97
Winchester
I-64 WB @ MP 97

Mountain Parkway near Slade

US 23 at 119

US 119: KY 1679 @ US 119 Pine Mt Road

I-75 at MP 36
London
I-75 @ MP 36

I-75 at MP 23
Corbin

I-75 @ MP 23

Enjoy the day and take care.

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A busy weather start to March

Good Sunday and welcome to the month of March. This is often a very fickle weather month and that will be evident right off the bat. Things are starting out on a very busy note that will feature a lot of changeable conditions.

Our day is starting with a big temperature swing from north to south. Highs across the far north may struggle to get much past freezing while the south heads into the 40s. A wintry mix and snow will be likely in the north and that will cause some slippery travel.

Many areas will see some showers as a cold front sags in from the northwest. That front will knock temps back into the low and mid 30s for highs Monday.

GFS Temps

The chilly temps will also be accompanied by the early day chance for a few snowflakes. You will also notice a big surge of spring across the deep south. Some of that air tries to push in here late Tuesday as a storm cranks to our west. That storm will bring more widespread showers and thunderstorms that can put down some heavy rains.

The forecast models continue to back off on the rain totals for the upcoming week:

GFS

That could be enough to cause some local high water issues.

The brief spike in temperatures won’t last very long as arctic air pushes back in on Wednesday. Check out the dramatic temperature drop:

GFS Temps 2

That temperature drop could also be accompanied by another round of winter weather. That’s something we will need to keep a close eye on.

I leave you with your Sunday tracking toys:

Hamburg Area from WKYT Studio
Lexington

I-75 @ Winchester Road Lexington

I-75 @ Winchester Road

US 60 @ US 127 Frankfort

US60 @ US127

US 127 @ Frankfort Frankfort

US127 @ Frankfort KY

US 60 @ US 460
Frankfort
US60 @ US460

I-75 MP 127
Georgetown
I75 NB @ MP 127

I-64 MP 97
Winchester
I-64 WB @ MP 97

Mountain Parkway near Slade

US 23 at 119

 

I-71/I-75 at I-275
Near Covington
I-71/I-75 @ I-275

I-275 at Mineola Pike
Near Covington
I-275 @ Mineola Pike

I-275 approaching KY 20/Airport
Near Covington
I-275 East of KY 20/Airport Exit

Have a great start to March and take care.

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March comes roaring in

Good Saturday to one and all. The final day of February is upon is and it will start with single digits for some areas… again. It’s a fitting way to wrap up one of the coldest and snowiest Februaries on record here in Lexington.

March rolls in like a lion on Sunday with the first of 3 active weather systems to impact our region. A wintry mix and rain will push in early in the day and continue through Monday as temps oscillate. The Canadian and European Models show the areas with the best chance at picking up on the wintry stuff…

Canadian

Canadian

European

Euro

The system that follows that up will bring much more of a heavy rain threat with some thunder possible Tuesday into Wednesday. The models are backing away from the heavy rain just a bit, but we will still have to watch for enough to cause some high water problems.

Another arctic front swing in late Wednesday into Thursday with a wave of low pressure along it. A HUGE temp drop is likely in just a matter of hours and that’s when we may see a decent shot of winter weather. Watch the increase in the winter precipitation forecast on the same models from above…

Canadian

Canadian 2

European

Euro 2

Take those maps with a grain of salt from this far out. I’m just showing them to illustrate the potential winter weather aspect as we go through next week.

Arctic air will follow up whatever we end up getting. If we can put down additional snow and ice accumulations like the European Model is showing, then temps can get out of control again…

Euro 3

Happy first week of March!

Make it a great Saturday and take care.

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Arctic air starts the weekend

Good Friday to one and all. February has been a brutally cold month, so it’s appropriate to send the month out on a very cold note. Arctic air is back with us into the start of the weekend. But, what about the start of March? Buckle up; it looks a little bumpy.

Some areas will start Friday in the single digits. Afternoon highs will be in the upper teens and low 20s on a day when 50ish is normal. Think about that one and give this weather the proper appreciation.

Single-digit lows are possible again for Saturday morning, with afternoon readings closer to 30.

The busy pattern cranks up again Saturday night and Sunday morning as moisture returns from the west and southwest. A wintry mix will be possible during this time:

GFS

That sets the stage for a mix and rain from Sunday to Monday as the first system works eastward across the region.

The next low is going to try to work just to our west and north and deliver us a brief spike in temperatures for Tuesday and early Wednesday. Heavy rain, gusty winds and thunder will be possible during that time.

Another system tries to develop along  an arctic boundary late Wednesday and Thursday. This one might take on much more of a wintry look:

GFS

Check out the blast of cold air coming behind that bad boy:

GFS 2

I would call those temperatures well below normal!

I’ve been trying to emphasize that next week will feature a lot of precipitation. Our waterways are full and we have snow still to melt, so we will need to watch the high-water potential. The latest numbers from the GFS:

GFS RainThat will be something for us to keep a very close eye on next week.

Have a great day and take care.

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A glancing blow of snow

Good Thursday to one and all. A southern snowstorm is delivering a glancing shot of snow to parts of southeastern Kentucky early Thursday. This system will quickly scoot to our east and allow for a clipper to dive in Thursday afternoon.

That system will deliver a round of snow showers and flurries to go with gusty winds and low temperatures. Highs Thursday will stay in the 20s. Normal highs are about 50 degrees for this time of year.

Single digit lows will be possible Friday and Saturday mornings. Afternoon highs for Friday will range from the upper teens to the low 20s, and in the mid- and upper 20s on Saturday.

March looks to roar in with a very busy pattern. Snow, heavy rain and a wintry mix will all be possible from Sunday through the middle of next week as several systems affect our region.

I have you all set to track Thursday’s conditions:

Hamburg Area from WKYT Studio
Lexington

I-75 @ Winchester Road Lexington

I-75 @ Winchester Road

 

I-64 MP 97
Winchester
I-64 WB @ MP 97

Mountain Parkway near Slade

US 23 at 119

US 119: KY 1679 @ US 119 Pine Mt Road

I-75 at MP 36
London
I-75 @ MP 36

I-75 at MP 23
Corbin

I-75 @ MP 23

Have a great day and take care.

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Snow swipes Kentucky Wednesday night

Good Wednesday, everyone. Another snow maker is likely to swipe the Bluegrass State later Wednesday night and early Thursday. This continues to be part of a wild month of winter weather in Kentucky.

We will probably see a sharp cutoff on the northern extent of the snow working in Wednesday night. The most likely chance at accumulation will be across southern and eastern parts of the state. Here’s a first-call map:

SPECIAL 2Snow showers and flurries will be possible for the rest of the region as another arctic front works in. That will unleash another arctic cold spell for Friday and Saturday.

I’m really watching the pattern from late this weekend into next week. This is a very ugly setup across our part of the world. I suspect the models will trend colder as we get closer, but the possibilities are endless.

Snow, wintry mix, heavy rain and thunder will all be possible during this time. The forecast models are going crazy with the amount of precipitation they predict over the next 10 days:

GFS

GFS RainEuropean Model

EuroThat would certainly make for a very ugly start to the month of March and would continue the nasty pattern we’ve had for most of February.

I’ve made comparisons to the recent stretch of nasty weather with a similar period we had in 1994. The numbers prove just how similar these periods are:

Lexxington 1994 vs 2015Those are definitely two heavyweight weeks!

Have a great day and take care.

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The cold is king

Good Tuesday, everyone. Arctic cold is back in control of our weather after a brief break over the weekend. Additional pushes of very cold air will be on display later in the week. But what about the chances of snow? That’s something we will have to deal with on more of a short-term basis.

Record or near-record cold is with us to start the day in parts of the region. A weak, light snow-maker is brushing far southeastern Kentucky, with some minor accumulation.

The next system is much stronger and continues to show up farther north and west on some of the latest data for Wednesday night. The Hi-Res NAM simulated radar:

NAMThat system diving in from the plains is trying its very best to tug that system closer to Kentucky. Let’s see what trends emerge overnight and Wednesday.

Regardless, he plains system will bring in snow showers and flurries on Thursday.

A messy system looks to take aim at our region late this weekend and early next week. That could bring a little bit of everything as we open the book on March. Another round of very cold air might follow that.

Speaking of spring and colder weather, the long-range CFS keeps the below-normal temps through early April:

CFSHave a great day and take care.

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Another week of record cold

Good Monday and welcome to the final week of February. Old Man Winter has been pounding the Bluegrass State of late, and that looks to continue. Another round or two of record-setting cold is likely this week.

Some snow showers and flurries might start the day across eastern parts of the state. In many areas, single digits will show up, with a few possibly going below zero. Wind chills will be even lower.

Tuesday morning lows might shatter records across our region:

Euro

Those wind chill numbers are brutal!

Another arctic front arrives Wednesday with a chance of light snow. Temps again head toward the single digits by Thursday morning on gusty winds from the northwest. That will again knock wind chills below zero.

Friday morning lows are brutal … again:

Euro 2

This might be the coldest air so late in the season to ever hit Kentucky. Those same numbers will continue to skew our monthly departures deeper into record numbers. February 2015 might go down as the coldest on record in many cities and possibly the state.

Legendary!

Track the rest of your weather:

Have a great day and take care.

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