Tracking a blast of winter

Good Friday and Happy Halloween, everyone. Winter is getting ready to pay a very early visit to the Bluegrass State, and the timing isn’t the best. We have trick-or-treating, high school football and about 80,000 Garth Brooks fans (me included) headed to Rupp Arena.

My advice for your attire is simple: Dress for December.

Here’s a breakdown of how things look to play out:

– Temps early Friday will rise into the upper 40s and low 50s ahead of an arctic cold front. As the front passes, temps drop toward the low 40s by evening rush hour.

– Rain showers will be common across the region until the cold settles in Friday evening.

– Trick-or-treat temperatures will drop into the 30s for most of the region:

GFS 3

– Rain will mix with and even change to wet snow as the evening wears on. That change should take place from west to east.

– A band of moderate snow takes over late Friday night and Saturday morning. This is when temps drop a little below freezing, allowing for the potential of a slushy accumulation. Here’s the latest call:

Special- The highest totals should be across southeastern Kentucky. Several inches will be possible in the highest elevations. The rest of the region should see between a coating and an inch of snow. I can see a scenario where locally higher amounts occur in bands of heavier snows. The ground is still warm, so much of the snow will melt. Whatever sticks should be mainly confined to grassy areas and elevated surfaces.

– Highs for Saturday might not get out of the mid- and upper 30s in our region. Lows by Sunday morning might drop into the low 20s. Gusty winds will make the air feel even colder.

Here are your tracking tools for the day:

Current temperatures

Hamburg Area from WKYT Studio
Lexington

I-75 @ Iron Works Pike Lexington

US 60 @ US 127 Frankfort

US60 @ US127

I-75 at MP 36 London

I-75 @ MP 36

I will have updates as needed. Take care.

 

 

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Halloween snow update

Good Thursday afternoon, gang. I continue to track the increasing potential for Halloween snowflakes across the entire region.

The latest run of the NAM really supports the idea of wraparound snows late Friday night and Saturday morning.

Watch how the band builds in from northwest to southeast:

NAMWherever that band sets up could pick up on some quickly accumulating snow. The snowfall map from the NAM looks like this:

NAM 2That is probably overdone in Central Kentucky because of the mild ground and melting. I also think it’s a little undercooked across southeastern parts of the state.

I’m probably closer to the GFS snowfall forecast:

GFS

A few thoughts:

– Highs still look to surge toward 50 before crashing down from west to east Friday afternoon. Gusty showers will be around, and a rumble of thunder is even possible.

– Trick-or-treat hours will find temps dropping through the 30s, with gusty winds and some rain and snow filling the air.

– A wraparound band of snow moves in Friday night and Saturday morning across Central and Eastern Kentucky. Tha one could drop some light accumulations on grassy areas and elevated surfaces.

Take care.

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A taste of winter ahead

Good Thursday, everyone. Thursday is the calm before the big changes blowing in for Halloween. These changes will include an honest to goodness blast of winter weather in the Bluegrass State. Looks as if the old man is getting a very early start this year!

Today’s weather looks very nice. Ok, that’s out of the way. Let’s move along to the good stuff.

The forecast for Halloween looks downright nasty, with rain, thunder, snow, gusty winds and crashing temperatures on the way. We may even throw in the kitchen sink before it’s all over.

The culprit is the October version of an arctic front that slams in early Friday afternoon. This will send temperatures dropping like a rock. Check out the numbers from the NAM:

NAM

Highs might hit 50 degrees in the early afternoon and then drop into the 30s about sunset. Gusty showers and a rumble of thunder might accompany the front.

As the cold air surges in, we will see some wet snowflakes mixing in with a changeover to mainly light snow later in the evening:

GFS 2

A period of light snow looks likely Friday night and Saturday morning in most of Central and Eastern Kentucky. Can this drop some light accumulations? That’s a possibility, especially on grassy areas and elevated surfaces. The greatest risk of seeing snow accumulations continues to be in the mountains of southeastern Kentucky:

Special1

Keep in mind we have warm ground, so a lot of what falls will be melting.

Temperatures during this time will drop into the upper 20s to around 30 by Saturday morning. Gusty winds will make it feel closer to 20 degrees. Ouch! Highs will make it only into the upper 30s to low 40s on Saturday, with some lingering afternoon snow in the east.

I will have more updates coming later in the day. Have  a great Thursday and take care.

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Snow possible on Halloween

Good Wednesday afternoon. I continue to track the potential for winter weather blowing in for Halloween on Friday. The models continue to be supportive of the first snowflakes of the season, and even the potential for sticking snow in some areas.

The new GFS continues to drop a potent upper-level system into the region Friday and Friday night:

GFSThat type of system is very dynamic and creates a ton of rising air in the atmosphere. I’ve seen similar systems produce thunder and lightning as they pass through. The air associated with this originated in the arctic and will probably bring colder air than the computer models suggest. That would be saying something, because the models are plenty cold enough.

The GFS shows the change from rain to snow working in from the west and northwest later Friday:

GFS 2Wraparound snows continue into Saturday morning, with the potential for flurries or snow showers hanging around until Saturday afternoon.

The latest snowfall forecast from the GFS continues to show the potential for some sticking snow:

GFS 5The most likely chance to pick up accumulation would be across the mountains of Eastern and southeastern Kentucky. That said, I could see some spots in Central Kentucky getting some slush Friday night. That’s when temps drop below freezing across the entire region. Lows will be in the upper 20s to about 30.

Winds will be very gusty and could top our between 30 mph and 40 mph at times. Those gusty winds combined with air below freezing could give us wind chill numbers like this by Saturday morning:

GFS 4Overall, this is a very impressive system and one that should bring the first snowflakes for many areas and the first accumulation for some.

Take care.

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Wintry weather for Halloween weekend

Good Wednesday, everyone. Chillier air has pushed into the Bluegrass State again, but all the weather focus is on Friday — Halloween. That’s when a blast of winter invades our region and gives us the chance for some very early snowflakes.

Let’s start with where we are Wednesday.

We will start with some leftover showers across Eastern Kentucky. Skies will slowly clear from west to east as the day wears on. Highs Wednesday will reach the upper 50s to near 60 in many areas.

Thursday will be very chilly to start, with lows in the 30s under clear skies. The afternoon will see highs in the low to mid-50s.

Our setup for Halloween is unlike any other I’ve seen around here. We will be tracking a very strong upper-level disturbance dropping in from the north:

Euro 2

That is just something you don’t see very often with a system that originated in the arctic. That will contain bring very cold air our way, with rain developing Friday and possibly changing to snow Friday evening and early Saturday. Check out the latest from the NAM:

NAMThere is some pretty substantial snow showing up on that particular model run. That only goes through 8 a.m. Saturday.

Here’s what the model thinks will happen with snowfall during that time:

NAM 2

Let me emphasize: That is not my forecast and is only what the one model is suggesting. I am becoming more confident of the first flakes of the season flying, but we have a few days to figure it out. It could just be a flurry or two, or something a little more than that. Either way, this is a very wintry setup as we end October and begin November.

I will update things later Wednesday.

Have a good one and take care.

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Halloween weather update

Good Tuesday afternoon. It appears to be a wicked Halloween in the making for our region as we track a wintry blast.

The GFS now matches the European Model in showing the potent upper level system diving on top of us Friday and Saturday:

GFSIf the models are accurate with the intensity and track of that system, it could be pretty wild around here. That would create a tremendous amount of wind and crashing temperatures to go with rain and some snow. I’ve even seen similar situations produce thunder and lightning.

The GFS shows no shortage of precipitation across the region:

GFS 2If things work out like that run suggests, rain would mix with and change to snow in many areas Friday evening and Saturday morning. The models continue to target the mountains of southeastern Kentucky with the best chance at seeing flakes and some accumulations:

GFS 3None of this is set in stone by any means, but my confidence in a taste of winter is increasing. Odds favor the first flakes of the season, at least, falling in our region Friday night and Saturday morning. Can it turn into something a little more? That’s possible and something for us to continue to track in the coming days.

Take care.

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Snowflakes for Halloween?

Good Tuesday to one and all. We have a busy weather period, with the threat of showers and thunderstorms on the increase. This will lead us into a pattern that might throw a taste of winter our way just in time for Halloween on Friday.

Tuesday will find a cold front racing in from the west. Winds will be super gusty as a line of showers and thunderstorms moves through. The prime time for storms will be from late afternoon into the evening. One or two storms could be on the strong side.

 

 

Temps will drop quickly into the 50s as the front passes, and they are likely to hold there for highs Wednesday and Thursday.

Very cold air will be surging our way late Friday and Friday evening. That will make for a windy and cold Halloween as temps take a big dive in just a few hours. Readings for trick-or-treaters should range from the upper 30s to the low 40s.

GFS 2Some of the models continue to indicate the potential for some rain or snow showers behind the front:

Euro  That will set the stage for a very cold start to November. Lows Saturday morning are likely to be deep in the 20s:

GFS 3

Highs on Saturday should range from 40 to 45 in most of Central and Eastern Kentucky. Gusty winds will make it feel much, much colder.

Have a great Tuesday and take care.

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Big changes for the week ahead

Good Monday and welcome to a week of interesting weather. It starts off with a taste of summer but might end with a taste of winter. With big temperature changes on the way, it’s time to buckle up for the ride.

Highs Monday will hit the mid- and upper 70s in most areas. A few spots could even tickle the 80-degree mark. That’s pretty impressive for this late in the year.

Current temperatures

Winds will gust, with some late-day clouds filtering in from the west. Those clouds are ahead of a strong cold front that arrives Tuesday. This front will usher in a gusty line of showers and thunderstorms by the end of the day:

NAM

The air behind that front is much cooler than what’s in front of it. Highs on Wednesday should stay in the 50s, with showers ending during the morning.

Thursday’s weather looks dry but chilly as another cold front marches in from the northwest. This front surges in just in time for Halloween and should give us the coldest air of the fall so far. The timing on this frontal passage appears to be just before the kiddos make their candy rounds:

GFS

Winds will be gusty and there is the chance for a chilly shower. Some of the models even hint at a snowflake or two Friday night and early Saturday. That’s when lows should bottom out in the 20s:

GFS 2That’s a cold map to open up the month of November. After a cold weekend, temps should rebound early next week before dropping again later in the week.

Enjoy your taste of summer and take care.

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Chilly Changes Ahead

Good Sunday, everyone. The weekend is wrapping up on another super-duper weather note across central and eastern Kentucky. We have another day of nice air before a big change to chill sweeps in. That chill may turn downright cold as we hit Halloween weekend.

Highs today will be back on the mild side with a mix of sun and clouds. Temps get even milder for Monday with readings hitting the middle 70s. Winds will gust up ahead of a strong cold front that arrives Tuesday. A gusty line of showers and thunderstorms will sweep in by the end of the day:

Euro 2 That will unleash much colder air behind it for Wednesday:

Euro 3Temps in the 50s for highs should be noted on Wednesday as showers push to our east. This will set the stage for the potential for even colder air to arrive for Halloween weekend. The various forecast models have been showing some pretty cold solutions. The European Model looks like winter:

Euro 4

That would make for a very cold evening for trick or treating in our region. This run of the model is even hinting at the first flakes of the season later Friday into Saturday.

Flakes or not, November looks to start cold in our part of the world.

Have a sensational Sunday and take care.

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Changes brewing for next week

Good Saturday and welcome to a gorgeous fall weekend. Windy and mild weather will continue to rule for the next couple of days. Make sure to enjoy it, because some big changes are coming our way into next week.

The forecast continues to be pretty straightforward Saturday and Sunday. Highs will top out in the upper 60s to near 70 in many areas, with winds cranking up. Skies will be partly sunny as a weak cold front passes. I can’t rule out a few sprinkles as it works in.

Current temperatures

Highs on Sunday will come down a few degrees, to the mid- and upper 60s across the board. Enjoy the weekend!

Monday looks even warmer, with highs well into the 70s and another day of gusty winds. This sets the stage for a strong cold front to arrive by Tuesday, with late showers and thunderstorms:

Euro

Gusty showers will continue into Wednesday as colder air pours in from the northwest. Highs will be back in the 50s into the middle of the week.

Another cold front looks to arrive by Friday, and that will knock our temps way down:

 

 

GFSWill there be a storm that develops along the boundary? It’s a possibility, and that’s something for us to watch. Either way, the models have a cold Halloween weekend in store for our region:

GFS 2Have a great day and take care.

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