Rounds of snow start Monday

Good Saturday, everyone. We’re in the middle of a very nice weekend of weather across central and eastern Kentucky. This nice weather isn’t going to last very long as Old Man Winter returns by Monday. Once he gets into town, he may be in no big hurry to leave.

Highs today will hit the upper 40s to around 50 in many areas. Our skies will feature some sun and a few clouds hanging out together.

Super Bowl Sunday looks similar in terms of temps and sky conditions. Winds will increase a bit as we get ready for our first system to impact to impact the region. A line of rain and snow showers moves through Sunday night into Monday morning.

Additional systems then dive in here from the northwest from Monday through Wednesday.

This deep trough will allow for numerous upper air systems to work in here on a strong and cold northwesterly flow. Throw in some moisture from the Great Lakes and you can see the snow numbers add up.

The latest GFS snow forecast for Monday-Wednesday…

GFS 3

The European Model uses a 10-1 ratio so it will show slightly lower totals…

Euro

The European Ensembles from WeatherBELL…

Euro 4

Moral of the story… the stage is set for multiple rounds of snows that can put down several inches over a three to four day span. Arctic cold and gusty winds will also be noted.

Another surge of arctic air arrives by late Friday and could bring more snow. Here’s the European model…

Euro 2

In my last update, I mentioned the potential for a big overrunning system around the middle of the month. The European Model says Happy Valentine’s Day…

Euro 3

Make it a great day and take care.

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Winter fights back next week

Good Friday to one and all. We have a nice-looking and nice-feeling weekend taking shape across our part of the world. This is good timing for all those folks heading out to Super Bowl parties.

Once beyond the weekend, winter surges back into the Bluegrass State in a big way.

Highs Friday will be in the low and mid-40s in many areas, with a mix of sun and clouds. Highs for Saturday and Sunday will top out between 45 and 50 degrees. Winds will be a little breezy under a mix of sun and clouds.

We’re going into a pattern that will feature a 3- to 4-day period of snow showers and squalls across our region. That starts Monday morning and runs through early Thursday. Northwesterly winds coming across the warmer-than-normal Great Lakes will combine with several upper-air systems to create the widespread snow showers and squalls.

The GFS snow forecast through Wednesday:

GFS

Keep in mind, it’s forecasting that to fall collectively over three days. You might never see those totals on the ground at any one time.

How do you know these snow squalls mean business? When I look at the raw output for Lexington and see the model showing the threat for thundersnow:

GFS 2The Canadian Model is similar to the GFS with this setup. This snowfall map is only for a 10-1 ratio…

Canadian

Our ratios are likely to be quite a bit higher. That’s the “fluff factor” I often talk about.

The European ensembles show another system to watch next weekend and early the following week. Here’s the two-week snow forecast from that model:

Euro 2

Make it a great Friday and take care.

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Winter gets ready to return

Good Thursday, everybody. Much colder air is back in the Bluegrass, and this is a sign of things to come. Old Man Winter appears to be mounting another attack, with the potential for some harsh weather moving in next week.

Thursday’s weather will feature some low clouds and flurries this morning before skies break some this afternoon. Highs will mainly be in the 30s:

For the past week, I’ve been highlighting the period of Feb. 7-11 for harsh winter weather to return to our region and the eastern part of the country. The upper-air charts have been all over this and continue to be. You can’t get a trough of this depth without some harsh stuff:

GFS 2

The surface charts are slowly catching on to all this. The latest GFS suggests waves of windy snows as bitterly cold air sweeps in. The below maps are for Monday through Wednesday:

GFS

With such low temperatures, it doesn’t take much moisture to produce snow, and those temps are brutal. Over the course of three days, that’s a setup that can potentially deliver a few to several inches of snow in some areas.

The air coming in behind the snow squalls is absolutely frigid:

GFS TEMPS 1

That could bring single-digit lows our way by Wednesday and Thursday.

Another blast of winter weather is possible by Valentine’s weekend.

Make it a great Thursday and take care.

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Much colder times ahead

Good Wednesday, everyone. We’re coming off a wild Groundhog Day, with many areas hitting record highs. Strong and severe storms rumbled across the state as high winds took center stage. From here, we start to focus on much colder weather on the way.

Temps Wednesday will slowly drop from west to east. We should see them settle into the 30s settle Wednesday evening, with the potential for a snowflake or two. Highs Thursday will generally stay in the 30s.

Seasonal temps move back in for Friday to start the weekend. All of this gets ready to change in a big, big way next week. The jet stream is ready to take a huge dip into the central and eastern sections of the country:

EuroThat setup can spawn snowmakers for our part of the world and is a rather extreme look. Much colder air also gets involved in the pattern. Look at the forecast departures by next Tuesday:

GFS 2That pattern is forecast to grow even colder as we head into Valentine’s weekend:

GFS 3

Winter isn’t over by any means!

I leave you with your Wednesday weather trackers:

Make it a great day and take care.

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Tracking the severe storms threat

Good Tuesday and happy Groundhog Day. We have a very busy weather day taking shape across our part of the world. A strong cold front brings the potential for record highs and severe weather to Central and Eastern Kentucky.

Here’s a breakdown of the day:

– A warm front lifts northward across the state and could produce a shower or two.

– Record highs will be possible, with many areas flirting with 70 degrees before the afternoon wraps up. Temps will stay in the 60s through the evening.

– A line of strong to severe storms develops across Western Kentucky by late in the afternoon or early evening. That line works eastward into Tuesday night.

– Damaging winds continue to be the main threat. Isolated tornadoes can’t be ruled out, Especially across south Central Kentucky.

– With or without thunderstorms, high winds are going to be a problem. Gusts to 50 mph will be possible with such a strong system. With a soggy ground from recent snow melt, some trees could come down.

– I’m a little more concerned about the local flash-flood potential. A 1- to 3-inch rainfall will be possible with these storms in a short time.

I have the blog all set for you to track Tuesday’s active weather:

Wednesday’s risk area
Latest Day 1 convective outlook

Current watches
Current Watches

Possible watch areas
Current MDs

Make it a great day and take care.

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A very active start to February

Good Monday to one and all. February is off and running with some showers and thunderstorms working across the state. This might be the appetizer to the main course of storms that arrives late Tuesday. This could make for some bumpy times for the groundhog, because some of the storms could be severe.

Monday’s action becomes more scattered as the day wears on and comes to an end in the afternoon. Highs will be much lower than where we’ve been and where we’re going. Look at the bounce-back for Tuesday:

NAM

With enough sunshine, highs could hit 70 degrees on a strong southwesterly wind flow. Record highs for Groundhog Day would be blown away if that happens. 67 is the record for Lexington for Feb. 2, from 1893.

With the warm weather comes the potential for severe thunderstorms as a powerful cold front moves through the region. Damaging winds and isolated tornadoes will be possible from late Tuesday afternoon through the wee hours of Wednesday morning.

Here’s the future radar to time the storms across the region:

NAM 2Colder air slowly swings in behind that system from west to east Wednesday. That cold gets bolstered by another arctic front that arrives over the weekend. That might have a band of light snow with it.

The longer-range models continue to pick up on a bigger signal for winter weather across the eastern half of the country early next week. Many of the models forecast several pieces of upper-air energy to come together and form a big system:

GFS 2

I leave you with your first day of February tracking tools:

Enjoy your Monday and take care.

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Warm weather leads to a big storm system

Good Sunday, everyone. We have another very mild day in store for central and eastern Kentucky. Above normal temps this time of year can often be accompanied by the threat for thunderstorms, and that’s just what we have in the days ahead. Some of those boomers could even become severe.

Temps today will be back into the low 60s for many areas with clouds slowly increasing. Showers develop and move in this evening and carry us into Monday morning. That action is along a weak cold front that quickly lifts back to the north as a warm front.

This sets the stage for a wild Groundhog Day Tuesday. Near record highs are possible on a strong southwesterly wind flow. Those winds will really crank by late in the afternoon and evening as a powerful storm develops to our west.

Sever thunderstorms with damaging winds and isolated tornadoes will be possible late Tuesday into Tuesday night. Watch the explosion of storms showing up on the models.

GFS

GFS 2

The Canadian…

Canadian

Please keep a close eye on this setup as we get closer.

Cold air presses in behind this front for the rest of the week into Super Bowl Weekend. In my last update, I said to watch the period from February 7-11 or a possible big winter weather system developing. The GFS must have been reading that post…

GFS 3

The stage is setup for wicked weather over the next few weeks, and the blog will keep you updated along the way.

I leave you with your Sunday tracking toys:

Make it a great Sunday and take care.

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Tracking wild weather changes

Good Saturday to one and all. We have a very mild and breezy weekend across central and eastern Kentucky. This is good news for all of those who have a serious case of cabin fever. This won’t last very long as some wild weather rolls in here to start the month of February.

Highs today reach the upper 50s on a strong southwesterly wind. 60 is possible in a few spots as skies stay mainly sunny.

Clouds increase Sunday ahead of a cold front. That front will produce a few showers by the evening and those carry us into Monday morning. Temps for Monday will drop into the upper 40s to low 50s.

This sets the stage for a very busy Groundhog Day in our part of the world. A huge storm system develops in the plains and rolls into the Great Lakes. That will have a blizzard to the west of it and the threat for severe weather ahead of it:

GFS

That setup means we could see temps flirting with record highs before storms move in late Tuesday. Some of those storms could be strong or severe with damaging winds the main threat.

Much colder air moves in behind that system for Wednesday with the potential for snow showers.

We know colder air comes in behind this for the rest of next week. Once into next weekend and beyond… look out! The pattern is threatening to send the country into the deep freeze. The GFS introduces this bitterly cold pattern with a system for us to watch for…

GFS 3

The GFS Ensembles from WeatherBELL are absolutely frigid…

GFS 2The European Ensembles from WeatherBELL are brutal. Look at the mega trough…

Euro 2

February has the look of another extreme winter month for much of the country!

Make it a great Saturday and take care.

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A very active pattern takes shape

Good Friday to one and all. We have a weak front blowing across the region, but this isn’t bringing much more than  a few snowflakes and chilly air. The forecast from later this weekend to next week is ready to ramp it up a few notches. It’s an active setup as we roll into February.

Morning flurries Friday will quickly get out of town, with a mix of sun and clouds in the afternoon. Highs will be in the 30s, but gusty winds will make it feel colder.

Highs by Saturday soar well into the 50s and could tickle 60 to the south. Many areas will make a run at 60 on Sunday on a stout southwesterly wind. Clouds will increase in the afternoon and could produce a few showers by evening.

A much better chance of showers will be with us Monday:

Euro1

You can already see a  much bigger storm developing across the Southwest. That storm is going to crank into a monster in the Plains states by Monday and Tuesday. It will probably have a blizzard on the cold side and a severe weather outbreak on the warm side:

Euro

For us, that could mean record highs on Tuesday, Groundhog Day, as winds crank to 40 mph or higher. Strong to severe thunderstorms would then roll eastward that afternoon and evening.

Temps crash behind that and could be 40 degrees lower by late Wednesday as some wraparound snow showers fly.

This leads us back into a winter pattern that has harsh written all over it for much of the country. Look at the temperature behind that front on the GFS Ensembles from WeatherBell:

GFS TEMPS 1

Let’s look a little farther down the road. The average from the European ensembles for a five-day span in Celsius:

Euro 3

To see those kinds of numbers from an ensembles run for a 5 day period is astounding.

Make it a fantastic Friday and take care.

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Big changes on the way

Good Thursday to one and all. Our overall weather pattern is looking rather active over the next few weeks. This means we have a lot of big changes on the way during this time. Those changes could mean severe storms and arctic air. Nothing like the changeable Kentucky weather to keep me hopping.

Another cold front moves in Thursday night and early Friday with some snow showers and flurries:

GFS

A sugar coating of snow is possible as this system moves through. Highs for Friday will again be in the 30s.

Much milder air then moves in over the weekend, with highs hitting the 50s to near 60 in many areas.

This leads us into a potent storm system moving our way late Monday and Tuesday. The setup with this storm could be a severe weather-maker for our region. Big-time thunderstorms and high winds could sweep across Kentucky on Tuesday:

GFS

The air coming in behind that is much colder:

GFS 2

Wraparound snows will be possible as that northwesterly flow kicks in for the second half of the week.

The models all point toward a very cold and wintry period taking shape thereafter:

GFS 3

Brutal cold:

GFS 4

Make it a great Thursday and take care.

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