Storms move in for Sunday

Good Saturday, folks. Our weekend is off and running on a fantastic weather note across central and eastern Kentucky. This nice weather won’t last very long as rounds of showers and storms return for your Sunday.

That could set the stage for some strong storms and heavy rains. More on that in a bit… Let’s focus on the nice stuff we have out there today.

Highs will reach the mid and upper 70s in many areas with a mix of sun and clouds. Winds will be a little gusty, but nothing we can’t handle. There is the smallest chance for a pop up shower or thunderstorm.

Low pressure across the plains will slowly work our way tonight into Sunday. That system will likely produce rounds of showers and storms from early Sunday into Monday.

It looks like the first round comes in here tomorrow morning from the southwest. Strong storms and heavy rainfall will be possible with the first round. If we can get some sunshine after that moves through… Watch out. Severe weather would be possible later in the day and into Sunday evening.

The latest NAM is showing that scenario:

NAMDamaging winds and hail would be the primary threats from any storm that goes up. Heavy rainfall of 1″-2″ would also be possible and that could be enough to cause some additional high water issues.

Thankfully, drier and cooler air works in late Monday and takes up residence into the middle of next week.

Enjoy your Saturday and take care.

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A warm start to the weekend

Good Friday to one and all. Our weekend is about to start out with much better weather across Central and Eastern Kentucky. That will be accompanied by much warmer air. That’s the good part of the forecast. The bad? Showers and storms blowing back in by Sunday.

Here’s a breakdown:

– Isolated showers and storms are possible Friday as highs climb into the mid- and upper 70s. Winds will be very gusty.

– Saturday looks even better, with sunny skies and highs reaching the upper 70s in some areas.

-Clouds will increase as some scattered showers and storms return Saturday night and Sunday:

GFS

– There is the potential for strong or severe storms on Sunday, and that’s something we have to keep a close eye on.

– Those same storms might drop another inch or two of rain that can lead to additional high-water problems.

– A strong cold front then blasts through on Monday, putting an end to the showers and storms. Much cooler air comes in behind that, and we could even see some patchy frost by the middle of the week.

– Another stormy and wet pattern then tries to develop late next week through the following weekend.

Make it a great Friday and take care.

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Tracking scattered showers and storms

Good Thursday, everyone. We have rounds of showers and thunderstorms pushing back across Central and Eastern Kentucky. This continues to be part of an overall pattern that is highly skewed toward the soggy side.

This setup should continue into the weekend, but I am seeing a window of opportunity for some dry and warm weather.

That window does not include much of Thursday. The rain should be scattered, with locally heavy downpours. That might be just enough to cause some local high-water problems. Track away:

 

Friday looks like a decent weather day, with only a slight chance of a shower or storm. Gusty southwesterly winds should boost highs well into the 70s, and that trend carries into Saturday.

Late-day showers and storms will become likely and should stick around into Sunday: Euro 2Many areas might pick up another inch or two of rain between now and Sunday night. Watch the already swollen creeks and streams during this time.

Dry and cool weather might roll in =early next week, but the overall setup could turn soggy again by late next week. The two-week rain forecast from the GFS shows a lot of rain across our region:

GFS Rain

 

Have a great day and take care.

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History-making rains continue

Good Wednesday to one and all. Record rains have pounded the Bluegrass State for the past several weeks, and I have more in the forecast. The current April rainfall numbers for Lexington are insane.

Take a look:

April Record Rain

Those are some sobering numbers, and we have the second half of the month to go.

Scattered showers will be possible out there Wednesday, with the greatest concentration in the south and east. Follow along:

 

 

An increased chance of showers and storms will crank up Thursday as warmer air fights back in. That could cause some locally heavy rains.

Friday might be the best day of the week, with highs in the 70s and a smaller threat of some storms.

Our weekend will find the return of showers and storms. It might come at us in waves, with Saturday providing the first batch:

Euro

A big dip in the jet stream would follow that Sunday and Monday. Additional rounds of showers and storms would be possible:

Euro 2Much cooler-than-normal air will then come in later this weekend and next week. That’s a trend that might carry us through the rest of April.

Enjoy your day and take care.

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Tracking the flood potential

Good Tuesday, folks. Rounds of showers and thunderstorms are rolling across the region, bringing the renewed threat of local high-water problems to parts of Central and Eastern Kentucky.

Much of Central and Eastern Kentucky remain under a flood watch through the day. The heaviest rain should continue along and south of Interstate 64. That’s along and north of the track of a low pressure swinging across the Tennessee Valley.

Rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches will be possible in some spots. That would be enough to create high-water problems.

The showers will decrease during the afternoon as cooler air pushes in. Highs Tuesday will struggle to get to 60 degrees in some areas.

Scattered showers will be around into Wednesday with highs again struggling to get out of the upper 50s.

Rounds of showers and thunderstorms will be with us for the end of the week and into the weekend. Heavy rains could become a problem once again.

Let’s take them one at a time and track what we have out there Tuesday:

 

 

Have a great day and take care.

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Tracking the return of showers and storms

Good Monday to one and all. We are coming off of one amazing spring weekend in the Bluegrass State. Sunshine and temps bordering on late-May readings made for “as good as it gets” weather.

That part of the forecast is now behind us, and it’s time to focus on the return of showers and storms. We’ve set up this return well in recent days, so it shouldn’t come as a shock to our regular readers.

Let’s break it all down:

– Highs Monday will rise toward 70 degrees under increasing clouds.

– Showers and storms should hold off until later in the day and then ramp it up a notch Monday evening.

– Locally heavy rains are likely to fall during this time. The forecast models are spitting out 1 to 2 inches for areas along and south of Interstate 64. If that’s the case, some local high water problems will be possible.

– Scattered showers and storms would be possible at any time through Friday. The scattered nature means temps will be tough to forecast. Areas that have rain on any given day will see highs struggle into the low and mid 60s. Temps could hit 70 or higher if you dodge the raindrops.

As usual, I have you all set to track the next round of rain back into our part of the world. Track away:

 

 

Make it a great Monday and take care.

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Storms return for the week ahead

Good Sunday, everyone. We have one of those “wow” days in progress across central and eastern Kentucky. The gorgeous spring colors are exploding as sunshine and temps in the 70s combine for a dose of perfection.

The perfect weather does not have a very long life span. Rounds of showers and thunderstorms move back into our weather picture as early as Monday. This action will be with us on and off all week. Are you really surprised? I didn’t think so.

Highs today top out in the low and middle 70s with a partly sunny sky.

The threat for showers and storms will then increase as we roll into Monday. There’s a nice little supply of juice from the Gulf of Mexico and that leads to showers and storms. The simulated Radar from the NAM is the most robust of the bunch with the action:

NAM

The chance for scattered showers and storms will then continue through the week. That doesn’t mean it will rain each and every day, but the chance will be there. The risk for storms has a lot to do with a strong upper level system moving in from the plains states:

GFS 2

That setup could lead to some stronger storms by the end of the week. Outside of any storm action, temps for much of the week ahead should run on the warm side.

Have a great Sunday and take care.

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A nice weekend before more storms move in

Good Saturday, everyone. Our weekend weather continues to look awesome for this time of year. Sunny skies and dry weather will rule the commonwealth through Sunday. Unfortunately, the nice weather goes away quickly as showers and storms return by Monday.

Highs today will range from the low to middle 60s with plenty of sunshine.

Sunday looks even better with highs topping out in the low and middle 70s as sunny skies remain.

Clouds will increase by Sunday night as another round of showers and thunderstorms move our way by Monday. The models are becoming a little more widespread with the action:

Euro

 

Rounds of showers and storms would then carry us through Tuesday and Wednesday before a bigger system rolls our way. That’s likely to slowly move across the region Thursday and Friday with heavy rain:

Euro 3

The computer models are suggesting another 1″-3″ of rain next week across Kentucky:

Euro 4Like I said… enjoy the nice weather of the weekend.

Make it a great day and take care.

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Much better weather this weekend

Good Friday to one and all. We have a big time break from the showers and storms moving in today and this looks to set us up for a very nice weekend. The dry weather is what we desperately need, but we will sure take the pleasant conditions that come along for the ride.

Morning showers and storms will work to our east with sunny skies taking over during the afternoon. High temps will reach the low 60s for most areas.

 

The sunshine hangs around into Saturday and Sunday as temps begin to climb by the end of the weekend. Check out the forecast highs from one of our computer models:

Euro 4

The threat for scattered showers and storms will return as early as Monday with moisture streaming in from the south and southwest:

Euro 2

Scattered showers and storms will be back in our weather picture for much of next week. Late Wednesday into Thursday looks to be the stormiest period of the week:

Euro 3Have a great Friday and take care.

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Another day of severe storms

Good Thursday to one and all. Our active weather pattern continues as we track additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms across the state. Some of these storms could become strong or severe … again.

Before we get to the specifics of the severe weather, let’s talk a little good weather news.

Temps on Thursday will feel a lot like summer, with highs in the low 80s in some areas. Some more good news: Dry weather moves in late Friday and carries us into the weekend.

OK, back to the bad part of the program. Here’s a breakdown of the severe threat:

– Damaging winds, large hail and isolated tornadoes will be possible with any storm that blows up across our region.

– There is also the potential for a squall line of storms to race in Thursday night as a cold front moves through. That could increase the severe threat if that materializes.

– Our ground is waterlogged and can’t hold any more rain. So it won’t take much to cause additional high water problems, and that’s a possibility with these storms.

I have you all set to track whatever Mother Nature brings our way:

Thursday’s risk area

Latest Day 1 convective outlook

Current watches

Current Watches

Possible watch areas Current MDs

 

 

Enjoy your day and take care.

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