Snow on the way for Valentine’s Day

Good Saturday to one and all. Bitterly cold temperatures are back in the bluegrass state to start the weekend. It’s what wraps up the weekend that’s getting most of the weather attention. Snow is on the way for Valentine’s Day.

Highs today will generally range from the upper teens to low 20s. Gusty winds will make it feel much, much colder. Wind chill readings will generally be in the single digits.

A developing storm system throws snow our way Sunday afternoon and evening. Here’s how the NAM sees it:

NAM 3That has the potential to put down a few to several inches of snow through Sunday night. The snowfall map from the NAM:

NAMThat would make for a decent snowfall for many areas.

The storm that follows this for Monday into early Tuesday is still a bit of a mystery. This system is likely to impact central and eastern Kentucky with another round of snow or a wintry mix. The NAM shows this into Monday night:

NAM 4I’m still not sure how that will play out, but the potential for some additional accumulation is certainly there.

My confidence level for a few to several inches of snow for late Sunday into Sunday night is much higher than my thoughts for Monday.

I will have another update later today. Until then, track away:

Enjoy the day and take care.

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Winter weather returns

Good Friday, everyone. Some light snow is back in the Bluegrass State as we get ready to kick off a harsh weekend of weather. Bitterly cold air and a possible winter storm will follow Friday’s snowflakes.

The action out there is centered across the southern half of the state. That’s where a winter weather advisory is out until early afternoon:

Some light accumulations are possible in these areas. The rest of the region will see some light snow and flurries through the afternoon, with highs in the upper 20s to near 30.

Arctic air sweeps in Friday evening with snow showers and a few squalls. That continues overnight with the potential for light accumulation.

The cold is the big story. Lows by Saturday morning could drop into the upper single digits in some spots. Wind chills could be dangerously low. Look at the numbers being forecast for Saturday morning:

Highs on Saturday are likely to stay in the mid- and upper teens, with a wind chill near zero all day.

That brings us to Valentine’s Day and the potential for snow. A developing storm system could send a period of snow across the region that afternoon and evening.

Here’s what the NAM has for that:

NAMThe main storm system follows that Monday and Tuesday. The track on that is likely to work across Tennessee before turning the corner up the eastern slopes of the mountains. The operational models are trying to figure out how to play this system and seem to be struggling in how to handle the temps. The new run of the GFS is catching on to the cold more than earlier runs:

GFSTake those with a grain of salt as I think it still has a lot of work to do with the temps as the storm comes in.

The European Ensembles from WeatherBELL show more of a statewide impact…

EuroWhat do I think of this storm potential? It’s way too early to get specific, but I do expect some kind of impact across Kentucky. Does this mean a little snow or a lot of snow where you live? I can’t answer that at this point. I’m not saying you’re getting a winter storm, but I’m also not saying you won’t. It truly is all about the strength and track of the low.

I leave you with your Friday tracking toys:

Hamburg Area from WKYT Studio
Lexington

I-75 @ Winchester Road
Lexington
I-75 @ Winchester Road

I-75 @ Iron Works Pike
Lexington

I-75 @ Clays Ferry Bridge South
Between Lexington and Richmond

US 60 @ US 127 Frankfort

US60 @ US127

US 60 @ US 460
Frankfort
US60 @ US460

US 60 @ Chenault Road
Near Millville
US60 @ Chenault Road

I-75 MP 127
Georgetown
I75 NB @ MP 127

I-64 MP 97
Winchester
I-64 WB @ MP 97

Mountain Parkway near Slade

Have a great Friday and take care.

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More winter weather on the way

Good Thursday to one and all. We have a bit of a break from the worst of the winter weather out there. This isn’t going to last long, as another arctic front slams through later Friday. That could set the stage for a much bigger system to affect the region by late this weekend.

Highs Thursday will range from the low to middle 20s with a mix of sun and clouds.

Clouds will quickly fill in Thursday night and early Friday as the arctic front edges closer. This front should have a wave of low pressure along it, and that is likely to bring a swath of light snow into the region. The NAM future radar for Friday and Friday evening:

NAM 2

The same model fires up the Lake Michigan snow shower/squall machine for Saturday:

NAM 3Highs on Saturday might not get out of the upper teens in some areas. Lows by Sunday morning could drop into the single digits.

The forecast for late Sunday and early next week continues to be one to keep a close eye on. A storm system is likely to develop and work across the Tennessee Valley. That system then is likely to turn the corner and ride up the Appalachian Mountains.

Many of the latest forecast models show a powerful storm winter storm developing out of this. The European model:

Euro

Two other models I look at show some very interesting looks. Check out the JMA:

JMA

The UKMET has an even wilder look:

UKMETWe will just have to wait and see how all this plays out in the coming days. Make it a great Thursday and take care.

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Busy winter pattern continues

Good Wednesday to one and all. Rounds of snow showers and flurries continue to push across Central and Eastern Kentucky. This is all part of a very wintry pattern across our part of the world. This pattern throws more chances of snow our way over the next week.

Highs Wednesday will hit the upper teens and low 20s, with gusty winds making it feel much colder. Wind chills will drop into the single digits at times.

The snow showers slowly wind down, with additional light accumulation creating some slick spots.

A clipper system works across the region Wednesday night day Thursday, but most of the light snow falls across Western Kentucky:

NAM

A quick inch or two is possible for the areas picking up the light snow.

The next system is a true arctic front sweeping into the region late Friday. That should also have a band of snow centered farther northeast compared to the Thursday light snow maker:

Euro

Bitterly cold temps and wind chill numbers come in behind that for Friday night into Saturday.

The next storm system continues to show up very well on the forecast models. The European model is just a little farther south with the system:

Euro 2

This continues to look interesting as we get closer. The potential is there for this storm to dig in from the northwest then ride up the Appalachian Mountains. We shall see.

In the meantime, let’s track whatever is out there Wednesday:

Enjoy your Wednesday and take care.

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Rounds of snow continue

Good Tuesday to one and all. Snow showers and squalls continue to push across the region and should continue through Wednesday. Arctic cold air pours in during the same time, adding another layer to our winter weather woes.

Temps Tuesday will be much lower than what we were seeing Monday with highs only in the 20s. That means we won’t see much melting. Roads will be slick and, in some cases, partially snow-covered.

The future radar from the NAM shows how the northwesterly winds keep the snows going into Wednesday:

NAMI will have your tracking tools in a bit.

Highs on Wednesday will hit only the upper teens to near 20. Winds will make it feel much colder than that. Thursday morning lows will drop into the single digits in some areas.

A weak clipper could bring a few flurries or snow showers to the region Thursday.

A more important system moves in Friday with a greater threat of accumulating snows. Here’s the European model:

Friday night:

EuroThat unleashes another round of arctic cold for the weekend. The European isn’t as strong as the Friday system and goes back to showing a stronger Sunday and Monday system:

Euro 2

The Canadian model still shows it:

Canadian

The European ensembles average snowfall over the next week likes our region:

Euro 4

Here are your Tuesday winter weather trackers:

Hamburg Area from WKYT Studio
Lexington

I-75 @ Winchester Road
Lexington
I-75 @ Winchester Road

I-75 @ Iron Works Pike
Lexington

I-75 @ Clays Ferry Bridge South
Between Lexington and Richmond

US 60 @ US 127 Frankfort

US60 @ US127

US 60 @ US 460
Frankfort
US60 @ US460

US 60 @ Chenault Road
Near Millville
US60 @ Chenault Road

I-75 MP 127
Georgetown
I75 NB @ MP 127

I-64 MP 97
Winchester
I-64 WB @ MP 97

Mountain Parkway near Slade

Make it a great Tuesday and take care.

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Winter weather advisory for many areas

Good Monday, everyone. Winter weather is quickly returning to Central and Eastern Kentucky. This is just the beginning of what looks like a harsh winter weather pattern.

Our day starts with a mix of light rain and some light snow as system number one moves in. System number 2 arrives later Monday into the evening with crashing temps and widespread snow showers and squalls.

The squalls from late afternoon evening will pack a punch. There will be blinding snows at times, and those could drop a quick inch or two in some areas. Winds will be very gusty as temps drop. Believe it or not, some thunder is even possible.

Widespread snow showers and squalls carry us through Tuesday into Wednesday. For that reason, a winter weather advisory is out for much of the region during this time:

Another system moves in Thursday with the possibility of another light snowfall. All told, a few to several inches of snow will be possible from late Monday through Thursday. The GFS continues to indicate some significant totals:

GFS 2

Slick travel conditions are likely during this time.

Bitterly cold air also will show up, with highs Wednesday and Thursday struggling to get out of the teens. Wind chills will be near zero and could drop below zero during the morning. That’s when lows could hit the single digits.

The European model continues to go crazy with the potential for a major arctic outbreak this weekend. It’s also ramping up the potential for several inches of snow when the arctic front and low pressure move in late Friday:

Euro 2That essentially brings the polar vortex into the eastern part of the country:

Euro 4 Euro 3That would be absolutely brutal if it happens like that.

I leave you with your regional radar to track Monday’s action:

Enjoy the day and take care.

 

Euro NAM GFS

GFS 2

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A lot of winter for the week ahead

Good Super Bowl Sunday, everyone. We have big changes blowing into central and eastern Kentucky later tonight. These changes will lead us into a prolonged period of winter weather across our part of the world.

Winds and clouds will increase this afternoon and evening as a cold front drops in from the northwest. This will have a band of rain and snow with it later tonight into Monday morning.

After a midday break, widespread snow showers and squalls will kick  Once they kick in, they may not stop for a while. A strong northwesterly wind flow will combine with several upper air systems and the warm Great Lakes waters, to create some decent snows.

This is a setup that will basically “nickel and dime” us to death over the course of several days. Each system that passes through here will drop some accumulation that can add up to several inches for some. The GFS snowfall forecast through Friday night:

GFS SnowThat does NOT all fall at once. Instead, it shows the cumulative totals for our daily chance of snow.

This is also a VERY cold setup for much of the country. Check out this absolutely Frigid pattern on the European Model…

Euro

The Friday-Saturday maps basically show the Polar Vortex dropping toward the Great Lakes and northeast with even colder air moving in here. That is introduced by another potential light snow maker.

The GFS during this same time is showing some single digit lows:

GFS Temps 2

Winter still has a lot left in the tank!

Make it a great Super Bowl Sunday and take care.

Canadian GFS TEMPS 1

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Rounds of snow start Monday

Good Saturday, everyone. We’re in the middle of a very nice weekend of weather across central and eastern Kentucky. This nice weather isn’t going to last very long as Old Man Winter returns by Monday. Once he gets into town, he may be in no big hurry to leave.

Highs today will hit the upper 40s to around 50 in many areas. Our skies will feature some sun and a few clouds hanging out together.

Super Bowl Sunday looks similar in terms of temps and sky conditions. Winds will increase a bit as we get ready for our first system to impact to impact the region. A line of rain and snow showers moves through Sunday night into Monday morning.

Additional systems then dive in here from the northwest from Monday through Wednesday.

This deep trough will allow for numerous upper air systems to work in here on a strong and cold northwesterly flow. Throw in some moisture from the Great Lakes and you can see the snow numbers add up.

The latest GFS snow forecast for Monday-Wednesday…

GFS 3

The European Model uses a 10-1 ratio so it will show slightly lower totals…

Euro

The European Ensembles from WeatherBELL…

Euro 4

Moral of the story… the stage is set for multiple rounds of snows that can put down several inches over a three to four day span. Arctic cold and gusty winds will also be noted.

Another surge of arctic air arrives by late Friday and could bring more snow. Here’s the European model…

Euro 2

In my last update, I mentioned the potential for a big overrunning system around the middle of the month. The European Model says Happy Valentine’s Day…

Euro 3

Make it a great day and take care.

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Winter fights back next week

Good Friday to one and all. We have a nice-looking and nice-feeling weekend taking shape across our part of the world. This is good timing for all those folks heading out to Super Bowl parties.

Once beyond the weekend, winter surges back into the Bluegrass State in a big way.

Highs Friday will be in the low and mid-40s in many areas, with a mix of sun and clouds. Highs for Saturday and Sunday will top out between 45 and 50 degrees. Winds will be a little breezy under a mix of sun and clouds.

We’re going into a pattern that will feature a 3- to 4-day period of snow showers and squalls across our region. That starts Monday morning and runs through early Thursday. Northwesterly winds coming across the warmer-than-normal Great Lakes will combine with several upper-air systems to create the widespread snow showers and squalls.

The GFS snow forecast through Wednesday:

GFS

Keep in mind, it’s forecasting that to fall collectively over three days. You might never see those totals on the ground at any one time.

How do you know these snow squalls mean business? When I look at the raw output for Lexington and see the model showing the threat for thundersnow:

GFS 2The Canadian Model is similar to the GFS with this setup. This snowfall map is only for a 10-1 ratio…

Canadian

Our ratios are likely to be quite a bit higher. That’s the “fluff factor” I often talk about.

The European ensembles show another system to watch next weekend and early the following week. Here’s the two-week snow forecast from that model:

Euro 2

Make it a great Friday and take care.

Euro

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Winter gets ready to return

Good Thursday, everybody. Much colder air is back in the Bluegrass, and this is a sign of things to come. Old Man Winter appears to be mounting another attack, with the potential for some harsh weather moving in next week.

Thursday’s weather will feature some low clouds and flurries this morning before skies break some this afternoon. Highs will mainly be in the 30s:

For the past week, I’ve been highlighting the period of Feb. 7-11 for harsh winter weather to return to our region and the eastern part of the country. The upper-air charts have been all over this and continue to be. You can’t get a trough of this depth without some harsh stuff:

GFS 2

The surface charts are slowly catching on to all this. The latest GFS suggests waves of windy snows as bitterly cold air sweeps in. The below maps are for Monday through Wednesday:

GFS

With such low temperatures, it doesn’t take much moisture to produce snow, and those temps are brutal. Over the course of three days, that’s a setup that can potentially deliver a few to several inches of snow in some areas.

The air coming in behind the snow squalls is absolutely frigid:

GFS TEMPS 1

That could bring single-digit lows our way by Wednesday and Thursday.

Another blast of winter weather is possible by Valentine’s weekend.

Make it a great Thursday and take care.

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