Tracking a prolonged flood threat

Good Wednesday, everyone. Rounds of heavy rain and thunderstorms are moving in today and will stick around through the upcoming weekend. This begins a prolonged flood threat for much of the bluegrass state.

A Flood Watch is already out for much of the region through Sunday:

The rainfall numbers from the European Model continues to show several inches of rain for the entire state:

Those numbers can lead to all modes of flooding across the entire region. Rounds of flash flooding, general flooding, street flooding and river flooding are all likely.

I cannot stress enough, if you live in a flood prone area, please stay alert to the potential for flooding.

Some WILD temperature swings will also show up, with a 30 degree gradient showing up from time to time. That may actually start tomorrow:

Temps may oscillate between warm and chilly in just a few hours or any one location. Get ready for some wild temp swings, folks.

In addition to the temp swings and flooding rains, Keep a close eye on the weekend for the potential for some strong or severe storms.

There’s also a strong storm and heavy rain signal showing up for the middle of next week:

That likely leads us into an ugly look for early March. Ugh.

Here are the rest of your tracking toys for the day:

Make it a great Wednesday and take care.

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Record highs before the flood threat

Good Tuesday to one and all. April temps may smash record highs out there today, but the focus continues to be on the rounds of heavy rain and storms on the way. This will bring a renewed flood threat to the region.

Let’s start with the good part of the weather program, and that’s the thermometers out there today. Highs will reach the upper 70s to near 80 degrees, breaking record highs pretty easily. The record for Lexington is 72 from 2016. The all-time February record for the city is 80 from 1996 and that is also in jeopardy.

Winds will be gusty from the southwest, with a mainly dry sky. To our west, you can see the showers and thunderstorms gathering:

The stage is set for a major flood event from the lower Mississippi Valley to the Ohio Valley. Here’s the area of greatest concern through the weekend:

Several inches of rain will fall in these areas, with the potential for a general 2″-5″ of rain across central and eastern Kentucky, with locally higher amounts possible in the bluegrass region. Areas of western Kentucky may approach double digit rain amounts.

This will lead to all modes of flooding across our region. Rounds of flash flooding, general flooding and river flooding are all possible from Wednesday through the coming weekend.

River flooding is already occurring, with warnings out along the mighty Ohio River:

Please stay alert to the increasing risk of flooding in the coming days.

Have a great Tuesday and take care.

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A warm and stormy setup

Good Monday, everyone. April temps are surging into the bluegrass state and will bring along rounds of springtime showers and thunderstorms. This leads to an eventful week, with record highs and high water issues a possibility.

Scattered showers and storms are out there early today as our warm front lifts northward through the region:

Temps this afternoon will reach the upper 60s and low 70s on a strong southwesterly wind. Gusts of 30mph or greater will be noted.

Tuesday is when record and all time February record highs may be challenged. Highs can hit 80 degrees in much of the state, as southwesterly winds continue to blow. Wow.

Showers and storms then increase from west to east Tuesday night through Thursday:

Those could be some very slow-movers, delivering several inches of rain on their own. The flood risk will ramp up during this time.

Additional waves of showers and storms will continue to target the region from late week into next weekend:

All modes of flooding are possible from Wednesday through next weekend. River flooding may continue to be an issue, and could turn into a much bigger issue.

The rounds of showers and storms may persist into the following week, which would not be a good thing.

What we are dealing with is a false start to spring, and I worry about the March pattern throwing more winter weather our way. Severe blocking is being forecast to develop, leading to a cold pattern trying to envelope much of the nation. This is even showing up on the Ensembles for early March:

That wouldn’t be a good thing for those of us ready for spring to fully take control.

Make it a good one and take care.

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A mild and stormy setup ahead

Good Sunday to one and all. After a full blown nasty weather day on Saturday, today’s weather is looking much, much better. Soak it up because more showers and storms are on the way. As a matter of fact, the setup for the week ahead can put down a lot of water in our part of the world.

Let’s start with today and roll forward. Highs will warm toward the 50s with a mix of sun and clouds. Those clouds will quickly increase by evening, with showers and storms arriving late tonight and early Monday.

That’s ahead of a VERY mild setup that can boost temps to near 70 on Monday, with 75-80 possible by Tuesday:

Rounds of rain and thunderstorms will target the state next week into the following weekend. Some strong to severe storms are possible, but the heavy rain and flood threat continues to take center stage.

This is a very bad look from the European Model:

That’s a ton of water targeting our region over the next week and change. All modes of flooding are possible during this time. This is one of the highest river flood threats we have had in a long while.

Make it a great day and take care.

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Saturday Afternoon Update

Good afternoon, everyone. Heavy wet snow is blanketing parts of the region, mainly north of Interstate 64. Farther south, it’s a mix then plain old heavy rain, with a flood threat in the southeast.

I wanted to drop by for a quick update on how things may wind up.

Areas north of Interstate 64 will continue to see mainly snow throughout the afternoon and have the greatest risk of picking up on several inches of slushy accumulations. Here’s a rough look at what may wind up happening:

Those lines are NOT set in stone, especially when dealing with such a fine line in rain verses snow.Temps in the north are near freezing and the snow rates are overcoming the warm and wet ground. It may also snow fast enough to cover roads.

Farther south and southeast, it’s all about the heavy rain and flooding potential. A good 1″-2″ of rain may fall, leading to high water issues developing.

Track away:


Hamburg Area from WKYT Studio

Fifth Third Pavilion Live Cam
Downtown Lexington

I-75 @ Newtown Pike

US 60 @ US 127
US60 @ US127


I-275 approaching KY 20/Airport
Near Covington
I-275 East of KY 20/Airport Exit

I-71/I-75 at Buttermilk Pike
Near Covington
I-71/I-75 @ Buttermilk Pike

Downtown Louisville @ 2nd & Broadway

Have a good one and take care.

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Our soggy setup continues

Good Saturday to one and all. After another soaking on Friday, I’m tracking another round of heavy rain across the region today. This can cause some local high water issues for some, and is part of a very wet pattern that shows little sign of letting up.

There’s even the chance for some wet snow in the north.

Today’s rains will be heaviest across the south and east, which are the same areas still cleaning up from flooding earlier in the week:

A general 1″-2″ will be possible in these areas, so watch the creeks and streams and be prepared to move to higher ground.

What about the snow aspect with this system. Over the past several days, I’ve said I wasn’t impressed with the odds, even with the NAM showing a big hit last night. That said, there’s the chance for some slushy snows across the northern half of the state

That system moves through quickly, with Sunday looking good. Highs hit the 50s with a mix of sun and clouds. Showers and storms then increase Sunday night and Monday, kicking off a warm, windy and stormy week. Here’s the setup for just the first half of next week:

The flood threat will continue to be noted through all of next week, and likely into the following week. This is a super wet setup for our part of the world

Let’s track them one at a time, with today’s action being next on the list:

Make it a great Saturday and take care.

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Rounds of heavy rain return

Good Friday, folks. Rounds of heavy rain are back in the bluegrass state and could cause additional high water issues over the next few days. The overall pattern continues to look VERY active through the rest of the month.

A cold front is dropping into Kentucky from the north today, bringing heavy rains and gusty winds. Temps will also take a big tumble as colder air works in for the afternoon and evening hours.

The front bringing the rains will slow down, allowing another low to develop along it. That moves in on Saturday, with a renewed round of heavy rain. This may target some of the same areas of the south and east, hard hit by recent flooding.

The Canadian has some 2″+ amounts in the southeast through Saturday:

The NAM is also showing some 2″+ rains, but centered more along Interstate 64:

Our ground is absolutely waterlogged and our waterways are swollen, so it won’t take much to cause additional flooding problems. If you live in a low-lying or flood prone area, please be alert to the possibility of flooding.

Some of the models are also trying to spit out a slushy snow across the northern half of the state with the Saturday system:

Rounds of showers and storms will also target the region beginning Sunday night and carrying us through much of next week. We will worry about that as we get closer, but the focus is on tracking the current high water potential.

As usual, I have the blog ready for all your tracking needs:

Make it a great Friday and take care.

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Tracking the heavy rain threat

Good Thursday to one and all. It’s a very windy and VERY mild day taking shape, but the focus of the forecast continues to be on the heavy rain threat over the next few weeks. It’s a setup that can lead to additional high water concerns across much of the state.

Highs on this Thursday reach 65-70 in many areas, with a few low 70s in the south and southeast. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will also rumble through here:

Rains will increase tonight and early Friday, when a cold front drops in from the north. Some rumbles of thunder will also be possible. Colder air comes in behind this front, leading to the chance for a mix of precipitation as the rain tapers off Friday afternoon.

That front stalls out on top of the region, allowing another low pressure to move through on Saturday. That brings another swath of heavy rains, with maybe a touch of snow for a time in the north:

After a break in the action on Sunday, showers and thunderstorms quickly increase by Monday as a strong southwesterly flow kicks in. Temps will be very mild during this time. Next week as a whole looks very active with rounds of showers and thunderstorms rumbling across Kentucky, increasing our flooding risk:

The setup for next week continues to run toward the pattern we have been outlining. A deep trough develops across the western part of the country, with a springtime ridge of high pressure across the southeast. That puts our region in between the two, with repeat heavy rains on top of us:

This can cause significant flooding and river flooding issues to develop across the entire state and surrounding states.

The CFS shows this supper wet pattern lingering through March. Check out the rainfall forecast over the next 45 days:

Make it a great day and take care.

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The soggy pattern returns

Good Wednesday, everyone. Rain is back in the bluegrass state and looks to be sticking around a while. This is a very soggy pattern that can lead to additional high water threats over the next few weeks.

Today’s showers are increasing from southwest to northeast, and I can’t rule out a few rumbles of thunder. Winds will also be gusty as temps hit the 55-60 degree range.

Track the rains:

The GFS shows heavy rain and some thunder Thursday into early Friday, before a quick switch to snow as cold air crashes in later Friday:

That faster push of cold then keeps the next low developing to our south, largely missing Kentucky.

The Canadian isn’t as bullish with the Friday cold, and keeps a bigger system on top of us for the weekend. This run has taken a colder look with this system, bringing heavy rain and some snow:


Behind that comes additional systems targeting our region next week:

The GFS Ensembles continue to show a lot of precipitation on top of us over the next few weeks:

Make it a great middle of the work week and take care.

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Active setup continues

Good Tuesday, everyone. We have some decent weather out there today, but this small break in our active pattern isn’t going to last long. As a matter of fact, it’s another heavy rain event targeting the region over the next few days.

Highs today will be in the 40s north, with 50s in the south and southeast. Even in a “break”, I can’t rule out a stray shower or two in the south and east:

The focus going forward is on a the potential for more flooding rains. The setup over the next few weeks looks to put Kentucky sandwiched between mild air in the southeast and cold air to our north and northwest. As these two air masses fight it out, that should lead to a very active storm track across our region.

While I expect some winter weather systems to try and sneak into the region, my concern is we end up with multiple heavy rain events. That would put our region right in the bulls eye of potential high water issues:

Given the flooding we are still dealing with in some areas, the bluegrass state (and some of the surrounding states) won’t be able to handle much more water. Unfortunately, more is on the way and it comes this week.

Showers increase on Wednesday, with heavy rain and some thunderstorms arriving Thursday into Friday. That’s when a cold front drops in from the northwest, with waves of low pressure along it. This looks like a general 1″-3″ rainfall across much of the region, and this may lead to additional high water issues.

Cold air coming in behind this late Friday, could mean a bit of a mix.

Another storm will then target the region early next week, bringing more heavy rain. Check out the rainfall forecast from the GFS over the next week:

That can lead to some significant issues in our part of the world.

Make it a great day and take care.

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