Winter kicks in for the week ahead

Good Sunday to one and all. Things are looking rather dreary out there today as rain and a few flakes roll across the region. This leads us into a pattern that takes on a big time winter look in the week ahead.

Let’s start with today and roll forward. Light rain will be noted from time to time and could mix with a wet snowflake to start the day. Highs will generally range in the upper 30s to low 40s. Track away:

Nothing has changed with my thoughts on the arctic front arriving Wednesday night. We have to watch for a weak wave of low pressure developing along this boundary. The Canadian shows this:

canadian

So does the European Model:

euro

That would mean a band of light snow behind the front with snow showers and some flurries behind it into later Thursday and Friday. This is some VERY cold air coming into the region. 850mb temps as low as -22c:

canadian-3

Highs in the low and mid 20s with lows deep into the teens. Wind chills make it feel much, much colder.

The stage is then set for another system to work in from the west and into the Tennessee Valley by next weekend. That is usually a good snow track for our region. Here’s the Canadian:

canadian-4

The European Model is similar, but with a bigger storm:

euro-2

Taken verbatim, both of the above models put down heavy snow across the entire state. Again, that’s a week away so take any one solution with a grain of salt. That said, the signal is strong with this one.

Have a great Sunday and take care.

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A very active weather pattern

Good Saturday and welcome to the weekend. It’s the first weekend of December and the overall weather pattern is starting to look more and more like wintertime. We have a lot of action coming at us in the next several days, with arctic air lurking later next week.

A weak system rolls in here later tonight into Sunday with some light rain. It may be just cold enough for a few wet flakes to mix in early Sunday morning. The best chance is across the north and northeast. The GFS is still seeing the potential:

gfs-snow

Sunday just looks like a rather ugly and chilly weather day.

The next system is much bigger and brings heavy rain back in here late Monday into Tuesday…

gfs

That could lead to another 1″+ of rain across much of the state.

Arctic air is on the move behind this system, with the traditional timing and evolvement issues showing up with the models. The GFS is too fast and progressive, as always, with that system.

The European Model continues to indicate a wave of low pressure developing along the boundary:

euro

That wave will likely show up stronger on the models in coming days and could deliver a stripe of snow across the region. Behind that, snow showers and flurries will likely fly around through Friday. Highs in the low and mid 20s will be a good bet, but wind chills will make it feel much, much colder.

Overnight low will drop into the low and middle teens, but the Canadian goes even lower:

canadian

The pattern from there can throw some additional winter weather makers our way. The morning run of the GFS went a little crazy:

gfs-2

 

 

 

 

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Winter slowly shows up

Good Friday to one and all. We are dealing with a seasonal start to the month of December, but Old Man Winter looks to start showing up over the next week and change. That’s especially true when arctic air invades the country for the middle and end of next week.

Highs Friday will be between 40 and 45 mph, with a  mix of sun and clouds. Clouds will then thicken up Saturday with similar temps. Those clouds are ahead of a weak system moving in Sunday.

The late weekend system continues to look on the light side, with some rain and snow possible late Saturday night and early Sunday:

nam

The next system rolling in Monday and Tuesday is likely to bring another round of heavy rain. A general 1 to 2 inches will be possible. The GFS is forecasting totals to be a littler higher:

gfs-rain

This sudden change to a very wet pattern is the buffer between the dry and warm setup of the past several months, and the big change to winter coming next week.

That change happens as an arctic front works across the state Wednesday and early Thursday:

gfs-2

That should be complete with a major drop in temperatures, gusty winds and some, at least, snow showers and squalls behind the front. Temperatures behind this front will stay in the low and middle 20s for highs with lows dropping into the low teens. Wind chill numbers in the single digits, anyone? 🙂

Just look at the definition of the arctic air mass behind this front:

euro-2

That’s a lot of cold air that will then continue to hang tough across much of the country into next weekend. This should happen as a southern stream system rides eastward underneath.

Make it a great day and take care.

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Colder weather moves in

Good Thursday to one and all. December is off and running with much colder air pushing into the region. This is the beginning of what looks to be a much colder than normal month shaping up for much of the country.

Highs Thursday and Friday will generally range from 40 to 45 degrees, with overnight lows dropping into the upper 20s and low 30s. There will be just a small amount of moisture that can creep into the northern and eastern parts of the region. This could bring a few sprinkles or snowflakes into those regions.

The GFS shows where it thinks a few flakes are possible through Friday:

gfs

The next system will come at us in two waves. The first arrives Saturday night and Sunday, with some light precipitation. This could start in the form of some rain, sleet or snow. The GFS gives much of the state a chance at seeing the mix:

gfs-3

The main part of the storm will then come at us late Monday and Tuesday. That should bring another round of heavy rain:

gfs-5

A true arctic front is likely to follow that by late Wednesday and Thursday. This is likely to be accompanied by a big storm system, with a secondary low trying to develop somewhere along that boundary as it swings through here.

The Canadian goes wild with that setup:

canadian

For fun, here’s the snowfall forecast from that particular run:

canadian

The chances for snow will be figured out as we get closer, but the amount of arctic air diving into the country is impressive:

euro

Overall, the very cold signal continues to show up on the ensembles for December. Watch out for the air across the country.

Have a great day and take care.

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Strong to severe storms possible Tuesday night

Good Tuesday evening, folks. Another storm system is about to affect the weather across Central and Eastern Kentucky. This could bring some strong to severe storms our way overnight into early Wednesday.

The Storm Prediction Center has placed  much of the central and south central parts of the state in a marginal to slight risk of severe weather:

The damaging wind potential is far and away the greatest threat, but there may be just enough spin for a tornado or two in the south.

In addition to the severe threat, heavy rainfall might cause some local high-water problems.

I have the blog all set to track the action:

Wednesday’s risk area

Latest Day 1 convective outlook

Current watches

Current Watches

Possible watch areas Current MDs

Have a great evening and take care.

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Another round of rain arrives Tuesday night

Good Tuesday, everyone. We picked up some much needed rain Monday night, and we have more to come. After a break in the action, rain will quickly zip back into Central and Eastern Kentucky Tuesday night and early Wednesday.

Here’s a breakdown of the day:

  • Morning showers will quickly pull away, leaving behind a mix of sun and clouds and highs in the low 60s.
  • Cloud will quickly thicken up in the afternoon as winds increase.
  • Rain and some thunderstorms will press back in from southwest to northeast this evening through Wednesday.
  • Rainfall totals of 1 inch or more will be possible for some areas. The NAM now shows a much broader area picking up on heavy rain:

namWinds may also gust to 35 mph at times Tuesday night and early Wednesday.

I have you all set to track the soaking drops:

Much colder air then filters in for the rest of the week. Seasonally cold weather will carry us through Friday, when a rain or snow shower might develop.

From there, things get a little complicated. A big system is going to develop across Texas, but the models are having trouble figuring out what to do with it. The European model develops this into a monster storm system affecting our weekend weather with everything from heavy rain and high winds to wraparound snows:

euro

Other models are nowhere near as aggressive with that system. Some have no storm at all affecting the region.

As always, we shall see. Make it a great day and take care.

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Heavy rain moves in

Good Monday, everyone. Rounds of heavy rain are finally arriving across the region, and this will carry us through the final few days of November. Many areas might pick up more rain in the next three days than we have had in the previous two months combined!

The first round of rain arrives in the west early Monday and rolls east through the evening. The heaviest totals with this round will be across the central and western parts of the state:

special-2

Winds will also be very gusty late Monday afternoon and Monday night. Gusts of 40 mph will be possible in a few spots.

I have you all set to track the soaking drops:

The next system develops and moves across the region Tuesday night and Wednesday. This time, the heaviest corridor of rain will be across the eastern half of the state:

special-3

Now, all those lines aren’t totally set in stone, because the weather doesn’t follow borders. This is a general 1 to 3 inches of rainfall coming to the entire region from Monday through Wednesday. Locally higher amounts are very possible.

Seasonally cold air filters in behind this second system as we roll into the first few days of December. Some low clouds could spit out some rain or snow showers if we get a true northwesterly flow for a time by the end of the week.

The next system cutting off across Texas and the four corners is truly an enigma for the models. With a developing -EPO, systems like that usually get kicked east, and that’s exactly the trend of the day. The European model brings a ton of rain in next weekend, with a threat of wet snow on the back side of the system:

euro

If that system works out like the Euro shows, high water problems would be possible. Taken verbatim, the European model shows 5 inches of more of rain over the next week.

The GFS is a littler slower and weaker with that system, but also kicks it out:

gfs

The repercussions of that system kicking east, instead of hanging in the west, is for the much colder look to take over behind it. Watch the systems diving in on the GFS:

gfs-2

gfs-3

The past few runs of the GFS are now locking into what the ensembles have been showing: arctic air getting into the country:

gfs-temps

Of course, we take time and numbers with a grain of salt from a week or two out. But the arctic air getting into the country fits the pattern and fits my winter forecast. December 1983 and December 1962 show up as some of the main analogs on the GFS. Both of those featured temps going well below zero during the month and led us into harsh winters. The winter of 1983-84 was my personal top analog for the winter forecast.

Have a great Monday and take care.

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Heavy rain on the way

Good Sunday to one and all. We have had one of the driest falls on record across the state, but that’s about to change in the coming days. Heavy rain is on the way, and could total more than the past two months worth combined.

Clouds will increase today with afternoon highs in the upper 40s and low 50s. These clouds are ahead of a potent storm system set to impact our region later Monday into early Tuesday.

This system will bring heavy rain from west to east. My thoughts have not changed on this at all. Central and western Kentucky can pick up 1″-2.5″ of rain, with an inch or under in the east.

The next system developing along that front from Tuesday night into Wednesday is being handled differently by each model.

The European Model has the heaviest rain with this across the central and east:

euro

Rain totals for both systems on the Euro:

euro-2

The Canadian Model on has a similar look with the second system:

canadian

The GFS is much more progressive, but that’s a well known bias of the model:

gfs

Adjust that westward and you have a similar look with every piece of data.

A few snowflakes may show up on the backside of that system as colder air crashes in here from the northwest. As we get closer to the first few days of December, the models are indeed growing colder and colder:

euro-3

That’s the setup from Thursday-Saturday with the seasonally cold air taking full control of the pattern. That’s a setup that can throw some snow showers and flurries our way, especially as winds become northwesterly.

Have a sensational Sunday and take care.

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Rounds of rain on the way

Good Saturday to one and all. Chilly temperatures roll on as we edge closer and closer to the end of our long Thanksgiving holiday weekend. As the weekend wraps up, we will start to focus on the potential for heavy rainfall moving into the region.

Highs today will be in the low and middle 40s in most areas as clouds will be slow to clear. If you’re heading to the tree lightning in downtown Lexington at 6:30, plan on temps dropping into the upper 30s.

Clouds will increase on Sunday ahead of two storm systems moving in here early next week. The first arrives Monday and lasts into early Tuesday, and should bring a lot of rain and wind:

euro

We catch a windy and mild break Tuesday afternoon, but the next system then rolls in here by Tuesday night and Wednesday. The exact track of that is still up in the air, but odds favor this moving just to our east, with another round of heavy rain for the central and east:

euro-2

A general 1″-3″ of rain is possible for the entire state from Monday through Wednesday. For many, that would be more than we’ve had for the past 2 months.

There’s even a chance we close that out with a few flakes flying Wednesday night as colder air moves in to start December. This is a seasonally cold air mass for Thursday and Friday:

euro-3

Another system is going to try to come underneath that cold air by the weekend. That could result on rain and snow:

gfs

Looking deeper into December, the CFS continues to deepen the cold across the country:

cfs

Coast to coast cold isn’t that common across the country. But the latest blocking pattern suggests that’s a real possibility.

Make it a great Saturday and take care.

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Chilly weather settles in

Good Black Friday to one and all. On this super duper busy shopping day, we have a seasonal chill that fills the air. That is likely to stick around through the weekend, as we await a big storm system early next week.

Friday will feature lots of clouds and some patchy drizzle, with highs hanging in the 40s:

Hamburg Area from WKYT Studio
Lexington

Saturday will feature a lot of low clouds lingering throughout the day. Areas of patchy drizzle or sprinkles will be possible. Highs might stay closer to the 40-degree mark in many areas:

namIf you’re heading into downtown Lexington for the annual tree-lighting early Saturday evening, plan on a cold one, with temps dropping into the upper 30s.

A couple of big storm systems take aim at the region the first half of next week. These can deliver a lot of wind, rain and a few thunderstorms. The rainfall could be heavy:

canadian

From Wednesday on, the models indicate the potential for some wintry weather trying to kick in as we start December.

Speaking of December, some of the seasonal models for the month are showing some big cold invading the country:

cfsHave a great Friday and take care.

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