More storms into the weekend

Good Friday, folks. We continue to battle rounds of showers and thunderstorms sweeping across the region. These storms have drenched the region over the past few days and have set the stage for the potential for additional problems.

Friday won’t be as wet as Thursday, but thunderstorms that go through will contain a lot of lightning and torrential rain. The models are homing in on a low pressure system crossing the region through Saturday, and this could bring even heavier rain to the region. Here’s the Canadian model:

Canadian

The European model:

Euro

Flash-flooding might develop over the next few days.

I leave you with your daily dose of storm tracking tools:

Have a fantastic Friday and take care.

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Heavy rain tracker

Good Thursday, folks. Rounds of showers and thunderstorms keep working across the Bluegrass State. These storms are packing a ton of lightning and very heavy rainfall, leading to a flash-flood threat.

Here’s a quick breakdown of the potential:

  • The amount of moisture available in the atmosphere is off the charts. This will only add to the amount of rainfall these storms can produce.
  • Radars will underestimate the totals in a situation like this.
  • The storms will come at us in waves Thursday, and flash-flooding is a very real threat.
  • If you live in a low-lying or flood-prone area, please keep a very close eye on water levels.
  • Rainfall amounts might average 1 to 3 inches, with higher amounts.

Here are the tracking tools for the day:

Have a great day and take care.

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Storms set to increase

Good Wednesday, folks. Rounds of showers and thunderstorms continue to increase across our part of the country. These storms will kick it up a notch in the coming days and could cause some problems.

Any storm out there Wednesday could bring some very heavy rain and a lot of lightning. The overall severe threat is pretty low, but we will need to watch the high-water potential.

Track away:

The action will really increase Thursday and Friday as a couple of low pressures move through the region:

Euro 2

Here is one model rainfall forecast through Friday:

Euro

Additional showers and thunderstorms should be around this weekend into early next week:

Euro 3

We will need to be on guard for possible flash-flooding through this time.

The pattern remains active next week into the first week of August.

Have a great day and take care.

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Storms to bring heavy rain

Good Tuesday, everyone. We have rounds of showers and thunderstorms pushing across the region, and these bad boys will put down some very heavy rain. As a matter of fact, the storms will become much more widespread later in the week. That will up the ante on heavy rain.

Tuesday’s stuff should be similar to what we went through Monday, with most of the action coming during the afternoon and evening. Watch for a lot of lightning and heavy rain:

Wednesday should feature similar conditions before we ramp it up a notch by Thursday. This is when a storm system rolls right on top of the region:

Canadian

With a  setup like this, we will really need to watch the heavy rain threat over the next week or so. The models continue to put down a lot of rain. Here’s the Canadian:

GFS Rain

The GFS is similar:

Canadian 2

Make it a great day and take care.

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A stormy final week of July

Good Monday to one and all. As hard as it is to believe, the final week of July is upon us. What’s not hard to believe is that more storms are in the forecast. After taking a steamy break, the rounds of storms are back in the Bluegrass Btate.

Boomers are out there Monday and could pack a bit of a punch. Some of the storms can be strong with very heavy rainfall. I will have your tracking tools here in a moment.

The thunderstorm chances will increase as the week wears on. A deeper trough will roll our way by the weekend with the potential for widespread showers and thunderstorms:

Euro

That type of setup can bring about some lower temperatures:

Euro 2

I think that part of the pattern is something many of us would welcome. Unfortunately, it might come with a very stormy price.

I leave you with your Monday storm tracking tools:


Latest Day 1 convective outlook

Current watches
Current Watches

Possible watch areas
Current MDs

Have a great Monday and take care.

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Another stormy week ahead

Good Sunday, folks. We are putting the wraps on a typical hot and humid July weekend in the bluegrass state. Upper 80s to low 90s have been common of late, but this is something we see MANY days every summer.

Temps out there today will be back into the upper 80s and low 90s. Humidity levels will make it feel hotter, and we could see scattered showers and storms going up.

Showers and storms increase as we roll into Monday and Tuesday. A few of the storms can be strong with heavy rainfall a possibility.

Showers and storms will increase as the week wears on. This action could REALLY ramp up as we inch closer to next weekend as a storm system develops across the Ohio Valley. Here’s the GFS:

GFS

The Canadian Model is very similar:

Canadian

Temperatures will come down during this time.

Looking forward to the fall and winter, yet?

This is the time of year I start to focus on some of the large scale signals forecast to show up for the fall and winter. We are coming off a super El Nino and many of the seasonal models have been forecasting a La Nina to develop this year. So far, the La Nina is REALLY struggling to get started, and those same seasonal models are now backing off on it.

The latest JAMSTEC seasonal model shows a neutral signal to, perhaps, weak La Nina forming this winter. It does so in the middle of a very warm Pacific. Here’s the December-February look at ocean temps:

Japan Model

Two things I’m watching. The potential for a low end La Nina, and a continuation of the very warm water off the west coast and into the Gulf Of Alaska. This +PDO signal has been one there for the majority of the past 3 winters, and is showing up very well for the winter ahead. As you know, I have maintained that signal has been the driving force for our past three wild winters around here. Last year’s super Nino muted the signal to a point, but it still produced another historic snowstorm with several other good snows.

Can we make it 4 in a row with memorable winter weather? The same run from the JAMSTEC shows colder than normal weather for much of the country from December-February:

Japan Model 2

While all of this is obviously VERY early in the ballgame, the forecast signals in the Pacific Ocean certainly argue for another fun winter.

Have a great day and take care.

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Storms start to take control

Good Saturday, and welcome to the weekend. A typical brand of July “heat” has been with us for the past week or so. Thunderstorms have helped temper the temperatures, and those storms will really ramp up in the week ahead.

Today’s weather should be very similar to what we had on Friday. High temps should range from the upper 80s to low 90s with humidity levels making it feel much hotter than that. Scattered storms may also go up and could pack a heavy rain punch.

Track away:

Sunday’s weather will look and feel a lot like what we have out there today.

Monday and Tuesday will find storm chances on the increase:

GFS

From there, additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms ramp up into the middle and end of the week:

Euro

What about next weekend? How about some more storms:

GFS 2

Have a great Saturday and take care.

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Steamy temps unleash a stormy pattern

Good Friday, folks. We are ending the week on a very steamy note, with plenty of heat and humidity across the region. This will aid in the development of scattered storms out there and might kick off another stormy period over the next few weeks.

Highs Friday reach 90 to 95 in most areas, with a  heat index pushing 100. There will be scattered storms in the afternoon and evening. A few of those could be strong, with some heavy rain. Here’s what you need to track the day:

A weak front settles into the Ohio Valley this weekend, and touches off more likely storm chances:

GFS

With so much juice available, these storms can be strong and put down a lot of rain in a short time.

Additional storms will be floating around early next week:

GFS 2

Look what rolls in later in the week:

Euro

The models are back into showing a familiar look over the next few weeks: stormy. Check out a snapshot of the GFS rainfall numbers:

GFS Rain

Have a great day and take care.

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Scattered storms fight the heat

Good Thursday, everyone. Steamy temperatures continue to settle into Central and Eastern Kentucky. The storms are meeting with some resistance, though. Scattered showers and storms will continue to battle it out with the heat in the coming days.

Highs Thursday will reach the upper 80s to low 90s in most areas; however, showers and storms will get the final say in that. Any storm can put down some heavy rain before moving along on its merry way.

Your weather trackers:

Friday is an interesting day. If we stay mostly sunny, highs could reach 90 to 95 in many areas, with a heat index pushing 100. That’s a big if, though. Scattered storms might occur in the afternoon and evening.

The weekend looks toasty, with an increase in showers and storms:

GFS

This setup should carry us into early next week as temps drop slightly:

GFS 2

Have a great day and take care.

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Typical July steam settles in

Good Wednesday to one and all. We have a lot of steamy conditions moving into the region for the next several days. This steam will be accompanied by an increasing threat of showers and thunderstorms.

Wednesday will find highs close to 90, with humidity making it feel even hotter. Watch the northwestern sky for the potential for a shower or storm diving in:

The next few days are going to be hot ones, but there are many factors arguing against anything but a typical brand of July heat. The ground is wet, the grass is green, and we have lush vegetation. There’s the threat of storms diving in from the northwest, and even if they don’t, some debris clouds might filter in.

The west is going to be hottest, by far. Central and eastern parts of the state have a better chance of being impacted by some storms coming from the northwest:

Canadian

The heat index is going to be way up there, because this is a very tropical air mass. This is also the same heat ridge we started talking about more than a week ago. But I am seeing some limiting factors potentially showing up.

The steamy air this weekend should produce some scattered showers and storms. That action looks to really increase early next week as a strong system develops across the region. The European model is all over it:

Euro

The middle and end of next week finds the same model spitting out more showers and thunderstorms, with another system diving into the Plains States.

Have a great day and take care.

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