Gusty winds likely Thursday

Good Thursday to one and all. A very strong clipper system will roll across the state and will bring a lot of changes. All of these changes will lead us into a Super Bowl weekend that might throw more snow our way.

Thursday’s system will provide a quick spike in temps ahead of it and a bigger crash behind it. Here’s a breakdown:

– Wind gusts of 30 mph to 40 mph will be possible.

– Rain showers will then change to snow showers Thursday evening and Thursday night.

-I’m also seeing a bit more of an upslope component taking shape for Friday. That simply means our northwesterly wind will try to squeeze out some snow showers across Central and Eastern Kentucky.

– Slick roads are a possibility for Friday. Winds will continue to be gusty as temps drop during the day. Single-digit wind chills are possible.

With this clipper tending deeper, that is likely to affect the storm system. How so? It could force the system to scoot eastward across the Tennessee Valley. That seems to be a growing trend with the latest computer models. Here’s the European Model:

Euro

That’s a solution the models were showing a few days ago and the one that makes the most meteorological sense right now. That kind of track would try to put down some snow across the state:

Euro 2

The new GFS would suggest a lot more snow around here:

GFS

I will keep telling you to not get caught up on model snowfall forecasts because they will change with each run. I keep focusing on the overall trends and the setup, and so should you. :)

That would unleash some very cold air behind it for Monday.

I leave you with some tracking tools:

Have a great Thursday and take care.

Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off

A small break from the snow

Good Wednesday, everyone. We have a bit of a break in winter on Wednesday, but don’t get used to it. I’m tracking a couple more potential snow-makers in the coming days. One of them could roll into town in time for all those Super Bowl parties.

We will have a partly to mostly sunny sky Wednesday, and that will allow for highs to reach the upper 30s and low 40s in most areas.

A fast-moving clipper works into our region on Thursday. This will bring gusty showers ahead of it, with a quick change to light snow and snow showers behind it:

GFS

Some minor accumulations will be possible Thursday night and Friday morning. Leftover flurries and snow showers could hang around for a blustery and cold Friday.

The weekend system is still on our weather menu, but the details on how it’s prepared are yet to be figured out. I want to continue to emphasize to not get caught up in one model or one model run. Just look back at the past 24 hours worth of model runs and notice how none of them look the same. It’s important to try and find trends in what the models are showing.

The latest GFS takes our storm just to the south of our region:

GFS

As of now, a system with that track and intensity makes more meteorological sense to me, given the look of the pattern. Here’s the snowfall map from that run:

GFS 2Notice how that matches up very well with the snowfall look from the European Ensembles:

Euro Snow

We still have several days to see exactly what type of winter weather that brings our region. Stay tuned.

Have a great day and take care.

Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off

More snow chances showing up

Good Tuesday to one and all.  A weak band of light snow and flurries will continue to push across southern parts of the region early Tuesday. This could cause slicks spots to develop in a few areas. As this one moves out, I’m watching the potential for a few more snow-makers to swing through.

Better conditions push in Tuesday afternoon, with a mix of sun and clouds and highs in the low 30s for many areas. Wednesday looks to be the best day of the week, with a mix of sun and clouds and highs of 40 to 45 degrees.

The next clipper looks to arrive a little quicker Thursday. It might get in here in time to start as a period of freezing rain in the north and east. That would change to rain by the afternoon and evening and then over to light snow Thursday night and Friday morning.

GFSThe timing on that will probably cause some travel problems by Friday morning as very cold air pours in along with the light snow.

The bigger system appears to be on target for Super Bowl weekend. The European Model shows snow for the entire state:

EuroThat’s a system that basically moves due eastward across the lower Tennessee Valley and is similar to what the Canadian was showing earlier.

The European Ensembles show a similar idea:

Euro SnowAgain, we aren’t focusing on any one run of any one model. Just watch the overall trends and how the storm system keeps showing up. It’s nowhere near a slam dunk from this far out, but it certainly should have our attention.

Let’s get back to tracking Tuesday’s weather:

Have a great day and take care.

Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off

Slick roads possible early Monday

Good Monday, everyone. Our day starts out with the potential for black ice across much of Central and Eastern Kentucky. Wet roads from last night could ice over as temps drop into the 20s early in the morning. A touch of light snow won’t help drivers.

I’m not expecting a lot of snow, but some minor accumulations are possible for some areas. I have some tools to help you track whatever is out there:

Hamburg Area from WKYT Studio
Lexington

I-75 at MP 36
London
I-75 @ MP 36

I-75 at MP 23
Corbin
I-75 @ MP 23

I-75 @ Winchester Road Lexington

I-75 @ Winchester Road

I-75 @ Clays Ferry Bridge South Between Lexington and Richmond

US 60 @ US 127 Frankfort

US60 @ US127

Another little disturbance dives in from the northwest Monday night and early Tuesday and could bring a swath of light snow with it.

As we go through all this, the possibility of a historic blizzard is increasing across the northeast. Look at the snow forecast from the European for areas around New York and Boston:

Euro 6

40 mph to 70 mph winds with that? The NWS in Boston thinks it’s possible:

Boston

Back to our weather, another clipper will move in late Thursday into Friday, with rain to light snow.

What happens with this weekend is still to be determined. Our potential is most certainly there. It’s just a matter of how much energy comes out of the southwest and merges with a system diving in from the northwest. The latest runs are going back to our bigger storm idea. The European Model is all in on the storm:

Euro

Make it a great Monday and take care.

Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off

Tracking a clipper into town

Good Sunday afternoon, folks. A clipper is working across the bluegrass state and could bring another round of winter weather tonight and Monday. Slick travel may develop across the region during this time.

The change from rain to snow will first happen in the west and north into this evening. That change will then slowly work toward the east and southeast overnight into Monday morning. The GFS is trying to show a small enhanced band of precipitation just behind the departing low…

GFS

You can also see how moisture lingers across central and eastern Kentucky into Monday as the low bombs out to our east. That’s a setup that can put down some light accumulations of snow around here. The GFS is seeing that possibility…

GFS Snow

As the light snow settles in and the clipper moves east, temps will quickly crash into the low and mid 20s. That could cause some roads to ice up. Keep that in mind if you’re going to be traveling.

Let’s track:

Enjoy the rest of your day and take care.

Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off

Active winter pattern ahead

Good Sunday to one and all. Old Man Winter came roaring back into the bluegrass state and it appears he’s gonna stick around a while. We are beginning a very active period of winter weather as we close out January and say hello to February.

The snow from Friday night was impressive and has actually put Lexington into the above normal category on the winter. Here are some stats I shared on twitter:

<blockquoteclass=”twitter-tweet” lang=”en”>

Lexington officially recorded 5″ of snow last night. Puts above normal for January and near normal for the winter. #kywx #WKYTRulesWinter

— Chris Bailey (@Kentuckyweather) January 24, 2015

<blockquoteclass=”twitter-tweet” lang=”en”>

Since November 1 Lexington has had 6.6″ of snow. Almost 1″ above normal and .1″ above this same time last winter. #kywx #WKYTRulesWinter

— Chris Bailey (@Kentuckyweather) January 24, 2015

Where do we go from here? I have a whole lot of model maps to break things down for you.

The first set of maps deal with a clipper working in here later today into Monday. There continues to be a slight adjustment to the south on the track of this clipper. The GFS…

GFS

The NAM…

NAM

While the track on both models is a bit farther south, we would still need that to drop a littler farther south for the best snows to fly across Kentucky. As of now, showers develop Sunday with a quick switch to light snow Sunday night into Monday. Some accumulation can’t be ruled out. That’s also a very windy system that blows up into a monster as it turns the corner up the east coast. We may see a blizzard develop in the northeastern part of the country.

A weak system dives in behind that Monday night into Tuesday…

NAM 2

That won’t show up well on the models, but you can see the NAM is spitting out a stripe of snow from working in from northwest to southeast. Those can sometimes bring sneaky snow accumulations.

Things turn quiet by Wednesday before another clipper moves in late Thursday into Friday. The GFS…

GFS 2

The European Model…

Euro 2

That may bring another chance of showers ahead of it and light snow behind it.

That leads us into the weekend and several models continue to indicate the potential for a much bigger storm system impacting our region. Here’s the GFS…

GFS 3

That’s a week away and a lot can change, but the models have been showing the storm signal for several days in a row.

Storm or no storm… arctic air sweeps in during this same time and that’s how we open up the month of February.

Make it a  great day and take care.

Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off

Tracking more snow chances

Good snowy Saturday, everyone. Much of the area is waking up to a blanket of heavy, wet snow. This is causing a lot of headaches on area roads as many will remain snow covered and icy through early afternoon.

Snow totals range from around 1″ to as high as 6″ for parts of the bluegrass region. This will go down as one of the bigger snows Lexington has had in the past few years.

Some morning snow will be hanging tough across the eastern part of the state while the rest of the region sees partly cloudy skies. Highs temps will stay in the low and mid 30s for many.

Another system will work our way by late Sunday and will deliver a few showers and gusty winds by the afternoon. Much colder air comes in quickly with some light snow taking over  as we head into Sunday night and Monday:

GFSThat could put down a light snowfall by Monday morning. Another weak system drops in with some light snow and flurries on Tuesday.

One more clipper zips through here by the end of the week and that will be followed by the potential for a much bigger system. The GFS is going nuts with it next weekend:

GFS 3We shall see how that works out.

Let’s get back to the weather we have today. Here are your tracking tools:

Hamburg Area from WKYT Studio
Lexington

I-75 at MP 36
London
I-75 @ MP 36

I-75 at MP 23
Corbin
I-75 @ MP 23

I-75 @ Winchester Road Lexington

I-75 @ Winchester Road

I-75 @ Clays Ferry Bridge South Between Lexington and Richmond

US 60 @ US 127 Frankfort

US60 @ US127

Make it a great day and take care.

Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off

Winter weather tracker- UPDATED

UPDATE

Good evening, gang. Moderate to heavy snow continues to break out across our region. Some spots have already picked up 1″-2″ and another inch or two will fall through the evening into tonight.

Roads are already snow covered across parts of the Lexington area and down the Bluegrass Parkway corridor. Areas northeast of Lexington will also see the snow picking up in coverage and intensity.

Your tracking tools are below.

PREVIOUS UPDATE

Good Friday to one and all. A storm across the Deep South is throwing moisture into the Bluegrass State, and this means winter weather will increase. This action starts early Friday and continues into early Saturday.

A wintry mix of rain and snow will move in from the south this morning. Temps will continue to drop Friday evening, and we are likely to see a moderate band of snow setting up. This looks to be very close to the Lexington metro and into northeastern Kentucky.

It will be within this band that the greatest chance of accumulating snow will be found. Here’s a look at my latest thought on where that sets up:

SPECIAL

I have the blog all set to track Friday’s winter weather.

Hamburg Area from WKYT Studio
Lexington

I-75 at MP 36
London
I-75 @ MP 36

I-75 at MP 23
Corbin
I-75 @ MP 23

I-75 @ Winchester Road Lexington

I-75 @ Winchester Road

I-75 @ Clays Ferry Bridge South Between Lexington and Richmond

US 60 @ US 127 Frankfort

US60 @ US127

Updates will come your way as needed. Take care.

Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off

Update on the Friday night snow potential

Good evening, folks. Here are my latest thoughts on the potential for some sticking snow late Friday into early Saturday.

SPECIAL 2 SPECIAL

Enjoy the evening and take care.

Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off

Tracking a possible light snow-maker

Good Thursday, everyone. Our string of awesome weather days is about to come to a crashing end. Old Man Winter is ready to fight back into the Bluegrass State later Friday into Saturday and could put down a light snowfall.

A potent storm system is rolling across Texas and will work into the deep south on Friday. That storm will then work toward the Outer Banks of North Carolina and then up the East Coast on Saturday.

A track like that can deliver some accumulating snows to our region. Here’s a breakdown:

– Light rain and a mix will increase from southwest to northeast Friday afternoon and evening.

– As the precipitation falls, temps will do the same. That means a switch to a period of light snow later Friday evening into Saturday morning.

– This doesn’t look like a big snowfall right now, but some sticking snow appears to be a good bet. Here’s a look at the areas with the best chance of seeing that:

Special- That is subject to change depending on how the low tracks. A farther west track would give us a better chance for sticking snow. The opposite would be true if the low goes farther to the east.

Between now and then, the weather out there today looks pretty good. Highs will hit the 40-45 degree range with a mix of sun and clouds. There is also the smallest chance of a sprinkle or snow flurry.

I will update as needed later Friday. Make it a good one and take care.

Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off