Record highs before a severe storms threat

Good Friday to one and all. Today is about as wild of a spring weather day as you will ever see across our region. Record highs will give way to a severe weather threat rolling into town later this evening.

Lexington’s record high for the day is 71 degrees from 1944. We should break that mark by noon, with highs reaching the mid and upper 70s later this afternoon. This could be one of the top 5 warmest winter days on record for the city. Wow!

A cold front moves in this evening with a squall line of strong to severe thunderstorms racing eastward. Damaging winds and isolated tornadoes will be possible.

Much colder air moves in for Saturday with the threat for a few snow flurries. Highs will only be in the upper 30s to low 40s.

I have you all set to track today’s weather:

Current watches
Current Watches

Possible watch areas
Current MDs

Have a great day and take care.

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Record highs and strong storms ahead

Good Thursday, everyone. We have another surge of crazy warm air blowing into the region for the next few days. This might give us one of the warmest days we have ever had in the month of February. It could also touch off some strong to severe storms before a temperature crash. Wild enough for ya?

Highs Thursday will generally be 70 to 75 in most areas. We will have a mix of sun and clouds, with a small chance of a shower or thunderstorm:

Friday is the crazy warm day, with highs in the mid- and upper 70s. Could we see an 80-degree high? It’s possible.  Winds will be very gusty from the southwest, ahead of a potent cold front moving in. This will fire up a squall line of strong to severe storms during the evening. Here’s the latest risk area from the Storm Prediction Center:

Damaging wind appears to be the main threat from these storms.

Temps crash quickly from west to east, and there is even a chance to see some snow flurrie Saturday. Temps by Sunday morning drop into the hard freeze level, with lows in the low and mid-20s likely.

Sunday is seasonal, with highs in the 40s.

Another system zips in Monday, with an increase in rain and maybe a rumble of thunder:

GFS 2

That’s on the nose of another surge of warm air moving in for Tuesday and Wednesday. That’s ahead of another potent storm that can bring additional big storms and heavy rain:

GFS 3

The GFS has some hefty totals over the next week:

GFS Rain

Once we get past that, there are signs of cold trying to win the fight in the first few weeks of March. This is a very ugly look showing up:

GFS GIf

Green thumbs are in trouble as we roll into March.

Have a great Thursday and take care.

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More record warmth ahead

Good Wednesday to one and all. To say this has been a warm stretch would be an understatement. Highs on Tuesday set a record of 72 in Lexington, breaking the old record of 71 from 1874. That’s pretty crazy.

Guess what? We could break another record Friday.

Between now and then, we have some scattered showers out there Wednesday. This action is swirling around a weak low pressure to our south. This will move away in the afternoon, allowing skies to brighten. Highs should stay in the 60s:

Isolated storms will be possible Thursday as temps take off once again. Afternoon highs can reach 70 to 75 in areas getting enough sun. Records for this day are pretty steep, about 80 from 1996.

Friday is a day that we can really see temps taking off, reaching the mid- and upper 70s in some areas. Winds will be very gusty ahead of a cold front moving in with strong or severe storms:

GFS

Here’s the super-early risk area from the SPC:

SPC

Colder air then moves in Saturday, with the chance of some snowflakes and temps in the upper 30s to low 40s.

The GFS continues to show a weak system with a touch of rain and snow by Sunday night:

GFS 2

That’s ahead of a big surge in temps Monday that could lead to additional thunderstorms developing along a warm front:

GFS 3

Highs can hit 70 again by Tuesday and Wednesday as another strong system rolls our way. This can bring heavy rain and strong storms:

GFS 4

Colder air follows that up and that basically is our pattern over the next few weeks. That back-and-forth will lead to an active storm track across our region, with heavy precipitation totals. The average of 22 members from the GFS ensembles is impressive over a two-week span:

GFS Rain 2

Have a great day and take care.

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Showers crash our spring party

Good Tuesday, everyone. We continue to see our temps running on the toasty side of things, but some showers are about to crash the party. This kicks off a busy weather pattern with some wild temperature swings, leading to active storm systems.

Highs Thursday will make a run at 70 before clouds thicken and showers move in from west to east. The most likely chance of rain is late afternoon and continues into early Wednesday. A few spots can pick up more than a half-inch of rain:

Wednesday will be “cooler,” with readings in the low 60s in the east but near 70 in the west.

Thursday and Friday can see temps go crazy on us. The models have the numbers going deep into the 70s:

Euro

80-degree highs will be possible with enough sunshine. Winds will be very gusty as a strong storm system rolls across the Plains and toward the Great Lakes on Friday and Saturday. This setup can mean some strong or severe storms ahead of it:

GFS

Much colder air comes in behind that system with highs in the upper 30s and low 40s by Saturday. The GFS also shows a few snowflakes wrapping in here early Saturday:

GFS snow

This pattern is super busy, with very cold shots diving into the country, and warm air trying to hang tough across the southeast. Watch this back-and-forth over the next few weeks:

gfs

Warm, cold … Warm, cold … That setup puts the mean storm track right on top of our region, and it should mean a lot of precipitation. Everything from strong storms to snow will be possible depending on how each storm track goes.

Have a great Tuesday and take care.

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Spring temps lead to a busy pattern

Good Monday to one and all. Temps out there today will be flirting with a record high as we go back into a super mild spring pattern. The same setup leading to this warm stuff will also lead us into a stormy look over the next few weeks.

Fog will start the day, but should lift later in the morning. That leaves us with partly sunny skies and temps nearing records in the low 70s. The record today is 72 degrees set last year.

Mild weather continues into Tuesday and Wednesday, but scattered showers and thunderstorms may come into play:

A potent storm system then develops in the plains states and works toward the Great Lakes and northern Ohio Valley on Friday. This could bring some big time thunderstorms to the region…

EuroMuch colder air comes in behind that system and we could even see some snowflakes this weekend.

This storm is likely to setup a classic seasonal battle between spring and winter. The seasonal transition toward spring will be met with Old Man Winter firing deep cold shots into the Midwest and plains states. Kentucky may go back and forth between the two and that spells some busy times:

Special 2

Big storm systems will fire up in the battle zone and that can bring lots of different conditions our way, based on each individual storm track. Severe weather and snow chances are there, depending on where each system goes. One thing is for sure, we are in the line of fire for heavy amounts of precipitation over the next few weeks. The European Ensembles precipitation show that flow right out of the western Gulf of Mexico:

Euro 2

Have a great Monday and take care.

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Spring temps surge back into the region

Good Sunday, folks. After a round of some spring showers, the spring temps are getting ready to surge back into central and eastern Kentucky. This could send us to near record highs on Monday.

Today starts gloomy with low clouds and a leftover shower, but some sunshine will be noted this afternoon. With the slower arrival of the clearing, temps today will be held in check a little bit. The numbers will be near 60 in the east to the low 70s in the far west.

Monday will see thermometers ranging from 70-75 in many areas. The record high in Lexington is 72 set all the way back in… 2016. 🙂

Strong southwesterly winds kick in ahead of a weak system moving through Tuesday and early Wednesday. That may touch off a scattered shower or thunderstorm as temps stay mild.

Thursday looks very warm as we get set for a pattern changing storm. This is one heck of a temperature change:

GFS GIf

That clash of the seasons will lead to a potent storm system with strong/severe storms ahead of it, and cold air and snowflakes behind it:

GFS

We will need to keep a close eye on the severe threat for Friday.

Spring and winter will then start to fight it out again with intrusions of cold bumping up against bubbles of spring air. The end result will be a very active storm track across our region. You can see that on the GFS Ensembles precipitation map:

GFS Rain

Moisture is aimed from the western Gulf right into the bluegrass state.

Have a sensational Sunday and take care.

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Spring pattern rolls on

Good Saturday, everybody. Some showers are pressing into the region, putting a temporary halt to our spring fling. Don’t worry; it’s about to come back with guns blazing for the week ahead of us.

Saturday will find a weak system bringing an increase in showers to the region. This will do a number on temps, with some big ranges showing up. Areas with rain will see highs in the 50s, and areas without the showers could hit the 60s.

That action moves away Saturday night, with lingering clouds into Sunday morning. Clearing skies take over, with afternoon highs taking off into the low and mid 70s across the west, and mid- to upper 60s east.

Monday looks downright warm and could break records in many areas. Highs from 70 to 75 look likely, with an outside shot of some areas seeing highs in the upper 70s.

The next system moves in a little quicker Tuesday and should deliver some later afternoon thunderstorms:

GFS

That will carry us into Wednesday, with temps coming down several degrees because of clouds and the chances of storms.

Gusty southwesterly winds should boost us back into the 70s by Thursday as we get set for a pattern changing storm system. This thing looks stout as it rolls in late Friday and Saturday:

GFS 2

Strong thunderstorms to some snowflakes are possible in that type of a setup.

Much colder air takes over for next weekend, and the models are trying to bring a system around the base of the trough:

GFS 3

That has a winter look to it.

The overall setup into early March looks active with winter fighting back into the country, doing battle with the seasonal changes toward spring. The active pattern shows up well on the precipitation forecast from the GFS ensembles during this time:

GFS Rain 2

Strong storms? Some snow? Both are on the table.

Make it a great Saturday and take care.

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Springing our way into the weekend

Good Friday to one and all. We’ve made it to our weekend, and spring is surging into the Bluegrass State. This will send highs to near-record levels next week, but the longer-range pattern suggests winter isn’t through with us.

Highs as we roll into the afternoon will hit 60 to 65 degrees in many areas. Skies could stay mostly sunny as gusty southwesterly winds kick in.

Saturday will feature highs in the 60s before showers move in during the afternoon and evening:

Euro

That moves out Sunday, with highs making a run into the 65- to 70-degree range. This leads us into the start of the week with highs ranging from 70 to 75 degrees in many areas. Records could be challenged during this time.

A cutoff low spinning across the Gulf states could throw enough moisture our way to produce scattered showers and thunderstorms by Wednesday:

Euro 2

Temps late next week may wind up much warmer as we get a pattern-changing storm to move our way. This wipes out the warmth with showers and thunderstorms:

Euro 6

For perspective on just how much the pattern is forecast to change. Take a look at the 500 mb maps from early next week to early the following week:

Euro 4

Euro 5

That’s actually a pretty good look for cold and snow lovers across the country. As I’ve said, this isn’t a pattern that will go straight into true spring. Winter won’t just go away without a parting shot or two.

Have a great day and take care.

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A serious case of spring fever

Good Thursday, folks. Milder winds are slowly kicking in out there, and this will blow a serious surge of spring into our part of the world. Mild weather will turn downright warm as we head into next week.

Highs on Thursday will be in the upper 40s to near 50, with partly sunny skies. Gusty winds might be the only weather complaint of the day.

Friday looks like a flat-out awesome weather day, with sunshine and highs in the low 60s:

Euro

The only drawback to the forecast comes later Saturday, with some scattered showers developing. This happens as a weak upper-level system passes through:

Euro 4

Highs Saturday will be in the 60- to 65-degree range and should really take off by Sunday. As skies become sunny, highs range from 65 to 70 in most areas.

Highs in the low to middle 70s then sweep in early next week:

Euro 2

There could be a shower or thunderstorm entering the picture by the middle of the week, and that might knock the temps down a few degrees. That could mean highs drop into the “chilly” upper 60s for a day.

No sweat; the 70s move back in later in the week ahead of a potent storm system:

Euro 3

It’s not too crazy to think about this pattern throwing an 80-degree reading somewhere across Kentucky.

The aforementioned storm will then move our way next weekend, wiping out our spring fling:

GFS

Winter is not dead. I keep trying to make this point, but it’s easy for people to get caught up in just how warm it has been of late. I get that. But, this isn’t a pattern that typically makes a seamless transition into “true” spring.

Have a great day and take care.

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Spring temps set to return in a big way

Good Wednesday, everyone. Old Man Winter is back in the Bluegrass State in a small way. Don’t blink because you might miss it. Spring is ready to kick back into high gear in the coming days.

Our day stars with temps in the 30s and a few snowflakes on the move. Far southeastern Kentucky might see a period of wet snow to kick things off. Later Wednesday, sunny skies return, with highs reaching the upper 30s and low 40s:

Milder winds will then kick in Thursday, as highs hit the 50s in the west and upper 40s to near 50 elsewhere. Much milder air then surges in for Friday, with most areas topping 60 degrees:

Euro 3A weak system will increase clouds on Saturday and might throw a shower our way:

Euro

Highs this weekend will be in the 60s and might hit 70 by Sunday, if the clouds get out. From there, it’s game on for potential record highs:

Euro 2

The interesting thing about computer forecast numbers in this setup is that they are usually underdone.

Have a great day and take care.

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