Watching the local high water threat

Good Thursday to one and all. We are rolling through the day with more showers and storms rolling across the bluegrass state. These storms are going to put down a tremendous amount of rain, potentially leading to local high water issues.

In addition to the potential for, at least, local high water issues, a few of the storms may also be strong. Local high wind gusts are possible and the Storm Prediction Center has parts of the area in a low-end severe weather risk:

Those storms are along and ahead of an area of low pressure working into the Ohio Valley on Friday. That’s when we get in on threat for strong or, locally, severe storms:

Once again, torrential rains will give us the potential for flash flooding. Temps will be held in check over the next few days, with some areas not making it our of the 70s.

Scattered storms will be noted on Saturday, but we may find mainly dry times taking control. That won’t last long as another system brings showers and storms back in here for Sunday and Monday:

As usual, the blog is set up to be your one stop shop for all your storm tracking needs:

Have a great Thursday and take care.

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The stormy setup is back in the bluegrass

Good Wednesday, folks. As a cold front drops back into the region, rounds of showers and thunderstorms are kicking back in. These boomers will carry us through the rest of the week and into the weekend. As a matter of fact, this action may take us through, at least, a part of next week.

Our front continues to drop in from the north and will become stationary right on top of Kentucky, leading to the clusters of storms. The map from a few days ago is holding up well:

An area of low pressure develops along this front and rolls through the Ohio Valley later this week into the start of the weekend. That will really increase the rain and thunderstorm action:

An area of low pressure develops along this front and rolls through the Ohio Valley later this week into the start of the weekend. That will really increase the rain and thunderstorm action that takes us into early next week:

GFS

This is a setup that can cause several rounds of flash flooding across parts of Kentucky and surrounding states. Keep a close eye on creeks and streams when the storms roll in!

Check out the potent upper level trough moving in:

That leads to significantly cooler temps, just as the pattern has been suggesting for well over a week now. Temps may not get out of the 70s on a few occasions. Check out the below normal temps showing up into next week:

I have you all set to do some Wednesday storm tracking:

Make it a wonderful Wednesday and take care.

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Storms set to return

Good Tuesday to one and all. As our hot and humid pattern slowly fades away, we turn our attention toward a very stormy setup. Rounds of showers and storms rumble in, courtesy of a stalled front.

Temps today will be in the upper 80s to low 90s for many, with scattered showers and storms going up. One or two of the storms may be on the strong side:

Showers and storms will increase on Wednesday as a cold front drops in from the northwest. That front gets to Kentucky and slows down, allowing for a few waves of low pressure to move along it. The end result will be rounds of showers and thunderstorms rumbling across Kentucky through the weekend:

Heavy rainfall is a very good likelihood, leading to the potential for local high water issues developing. Check out the European Model rain numbers through this weekend and into early next week:

Many of the seasonal models are just now getting into the winter months, and I’ve been showing a few. The common theme of the various seasonal models is for a weak to moderate El Nino to develop well off the coast of South America. The farther west of South America, the better the chance for a cold winter in our region. Those same models are also showing a warm pool of water in the Gulf of Alaska. This was there back in the winters of 13/14 and 14/15, and was something we said would lead to some healthy winters around here, and both delivered the goods.

The latest JAMSTEC Seasonal Model shows our warm pool and El Nino developing for fall. Here’s the September-November average:

Watch the cold signal blossom across the country for the same time period:

Winter just now gets into the range of the JAMSTEC and it’s showing a continuation of the GOA warm pool and the El Nino. Here’s the December-February average:

Watch how the model cranks the colder than normal temps from the southern plains through the eastern half of the country:

Regardless of what any seasonal model shows for actual temps and precipitation, we take them with a grain of salt. That goes without saying. That said, the takeaway from the models is the GOA warm pool and the El Nino placement. If those develop, our odds for an exciting winter increase.

Have a good one and take care.

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Storms to increase this week

Good Monday, everyone. Our steamy temps continue to start the new week, but another stormy setup is taking shape for the rest of the week. These storms will come at us in waves, bringing another heavy rain threat back to central and eastern Kentucky.

As always, let’s begin with today and roll forward. Scattered showers and storms will increase this afternoon and evening, potentially bringing locally heavy rains and high winds. Again, these are pretty scattered, so not everyone sees the action:

Scattered showers and storms will be floating around today into Tuesday, with rounds of storms waiting to kick into high gear starting Wednesday. That’s a setup that should last through the rest of the week and into the coming weekend.

A front moves in and slows down right on top of the bluegrass state. That will combine with abundant moisture, some of it streaming from the western Gulf of Mexico, to create an environment conducive for rounds of storms to roll across our pat of the world:

This setup can give us a few strong storms, but it’s the heavy rain threat that is most concerning. Once again, we find ourselves in a pattern that can produce, at least, local flash flooding issues.

Make it a great Monday and take care.

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Father’s Day heat before storms return

Good Sunday and Happy Father’s Day to all the dads out there. Our big day for dad is dealing with some typical summertime heat and humidity that will carry us into Monday. This will lead us back into a stormy setup for the week ahead of us.

Let’s begin with today and roll forward.

Highs will generally range from the upper 80s to low 90s, with a heat index in the middle 90s. Areas just to our north and west will see heat index temps much hotter than that. Isolated showers and storms may also try to pop:

Monday is another steamy day with highs around 90, but there is a better shot at scattered showers and storms going up. That action will really increase as we head into Tuesday and Wednesday, when a cold front moves in from the north.

This front will slow down right on top of us, leading to rounds of showers and storm. We may see a wave of low pressure developing along the boundary by late week. I that’s the case, more showers and storms rumble across our region.

Here’s the Canadian:

The GFS also shows something similar:

Locally heavy rains will be a good bet for the week ahead. Temps will come way down during this time.

Make it a great Father’s Day and take care.

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Typical summertime heat moves in

Good Saturday to one and all. Summertime and steamy temps go together like peas and carrots. Those steamy temps are kicking into high gear as we head into Father’s Day, but another stormy setup is on the way for next week.

Temps today are generally in the upper 80s to around 90. Humidity levels will increase, making it feel a few degrees hotter. There is a small threat for a storm or two going up:

 

Watch Ohio to see if we can get a storm or two to crank tonight and early Sunday. That could actually drop into the northeast.

Father’s Day looks hot with highs generally upper 80s and low 90s central and east, with low and mid 90s west:

Heat Index values will be much hotter.

Monday is another steamy day, but storms will try to go up during the afternoon and evening hours:

A cold front drops in from the north as tropical moisture works out of the western Gulf of Mexico. The end result will be an increase in showers and storms around here:

That front slows down with rounds of storms continuing Wednesday and Thursday:

Temps will come way down during this time, with additional showers and storms possible late week into next weekend.

Make it a great day and take care.

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Summer steam surges in

Good Friday, everyone. We are dealing with another nice weather day, but things are about to take a walk on the steamy side for the weekend. That’s when we get our first run of 90 degree temps of the summer.

It’s going to be interesting to see if a cluster or two of thunderstorms develop and roll across parts of the region today and Saturday. That typically happens on the leading edge of heat and humidity from the plains states. One of those may impact areas of western Kentucky today:

If those thunderstorm clusters do develop, they could throw some clouds across the rest of the region. Those could impact temps.

Highs today will reach the middle 80s for areas of central and eastern Kentucky, but the western half of the state hits 90 or a little better. Again, storm action could play a factor in those numbers.

Highs this weekend reach the upper 80s and low 90s for central and eastern Kentucky, with the numbers a few degrees hotter in the west. Factor in the humidity and it will feel hotter than that. It’s interesting to watch the temps from the computer models continue to be too hot compared to reality. That’s been a common trend in recent years and is again this year.

One of the reasons may be because of just how wet our ground is. Rainfall has been abundant this year, with the entire state WELL above normal:

Some areas are a more than 10″ above normal. A wet ground and lush vegetation, helps to keep temps from reaching the max potential.

Speaking of storms, a storm or two will be possible on Sunday, with an increase of showers and storms early next week as a front nears from the north. That front is showing signs of checking up and hanging around through the rest of the week into next weekend. That would bring back the all too familiar pattern of storms:

Make it a great Friday and take care.

 

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Toasty temps by the weekend

Good Thursday, everyone. We have finally pushed the storm train out of Kentucky and now we get set for toasty temps this weekend. This is a typical brand of summertime steam taking over, but storms and cooler air are waiting to flex some muscle next week.

Highs today are generally in the low 80s for most of central and eastern Kentucky. Humidity levels are way down, giving us a pretty nice overall day. Isolated showers and storms will be noted across the area early on, with a few lingering in southern Kentucky.

Here’s your regional radar to track the action:

Low temps by Friday will drop into the upper 50s and low 60s. Highs into the afternoon steam into the middle 80s with a partly sunny sky.

Temp from Saturday through Monday will be the hottest, so far. Highs across the western half of the state will generally hit 90-95 with upper 80s and low 90s for central and eastern Kentucky. Throw in the humidity levels and it will feel hotter than that.

By Sunday, showers and thunderstorms will start to show back up ahead of something tropical trying to show up in the western Gulf of Mexico…

The threat for showers and storms will quickly increase into the first half of next week. That’s when a cold front drops in from the northwest and tries to take some of that moisture riding up the Mississippi Valley…

Temps will come way down as a deepening trough digs into the eastern half of the country. Watch how quickly the heat ridge gets smacked down…

Have a terrific Thursday and take care.

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Another day of tracking storms

Good Wednesday, folks. A lot of rain has fallen across areas of central and eastern Kentucky over the past few days, and we have more to come today. Some of those storms may be a little on the strong side again.

Scattered storms will be out there again today and could bring more heavy rains for some. A line of showers and storms may develop this evening and drop in from the north. That line may bring some high winds and hail to areas of central and eastern Kentucky.

The Storm Prediction Center continues with a low-end risk for severe weather…

A little better air moves in for Thursday as we push the storms to our south. Highs will reach the low 80s across the eastern half of the state, but hang around 90 in the far west…

That better feeling air will hang around into early Friday, with some upper 50s showing up:

Temps by Friday will begin to heat up with low 90s across the west and mid and upper 80s east. Most areas should hit 90 this weekend, with the west being the hottest across the state. Many of the forecast models continue to run way too hot in general, but that’s especially the case given the wet ground we have. Sill, it’s a toasty weekend.

The threat for a storm or two will sneak back in on Sunday, with storm chances going back up through next week. A couple of cold fronts look to drop in from the northwest, and there may even be some tropical moisture trying  to work our way from the Gulf of Mexico. Here’s the GFS for next week:

Here is the Wednesday edition of your storm tracking toys:

Current watches
Current Watches

Possible watch areas
Current MDs

Have a good day and take care.

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Another day of tracking storms

Good Tuesday, folks. We continue to follow rounds of showers and storms rolling across Kentucky. These storms have put down a lot of water for some in the past few days, so we are on guard for the potential for , at least, local flash flooding.

The storms come at us in clusters from northwest to southeast. Obviously, there will be several dry hours between the storm rounds. Still, when it does rain, it’s going to come down in a hurry. The concern continues to be for repeat storm action over some of the same areas that have picked up heavy rains in recent days. Those are the places to watch for some high water issues developing.

In addition to the torrential rains, some of the storms may be strong or locally severe. The Tuesday Severe Weather Outlook from the Storm Prediction Center places Kentucky in the low-end risk once again:

torms will also be around into Wednesday, with a few strong storms possible:

The action scales back some by Thursday and Friday as the heat makes a run at us from the west. Areas of western Kentucky may be deep into the 90s, with cooler numbers in the east:

Those hot temps may surge east into the weekend, but some thunderstorms will try to beat those numbers back to the west and southwest. Those storms should be followed by a cold front with more storms and cooler air early next week.

Let’s get back to the weather we have out there today. I have you all set to do some Tuesday storm tracking…

Current watches
Current Watches

Possible watch areas
Current MDs

Have a great day and take care.

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