All eyes on Christmas week

Good Friday, everyone. The weekend before Christmas is upon us and the weather is looking ok for the most part. The weather for Christmas week is looking much more active and that will give us the chance for some snow for the big day.

Let’s start with the precious present. Clouds will be tough to break out there today, but a few rays of sunshine will be possible into the afternoon hours. Highs today will be back in the mid and upper 30s.

Our weekend system continues to trend weaker and farther south for Saturday. It may get just close enough for a few morning flakes in some areas. That doesn’t look to be a big deal at all.

Moisture will begin to roll back in by Monday with some showers on the increase. This leads us into a BIG system taking shape for the days leading up to Christmas.

The idea of a deepening storm from the Ohio Valley into the Great Lakes still shows up on several of the models. The new version of the GFS shows a wicked, wicked storm for millions of Americans…

GFS 3

That drops the barometric pressure with that storm to 965mb by Christmas morning. WOW! Talk about a HUGE wind maker!

That’s a scenario that would put snow on the ground around and cause blowing snow with winds greater than 40mph. Of course… that is IF that model were to verify.

The UKMET goes out to Christmas Eve morning and appears to be going in a similar direction with a storm lifting northward across the Ohio Valley.

The GFS Ensembles show a huge storm developing a just to our northeast…

GFS 2  The regular run of the soon to be defunct GFS is even trying to go toward the deeper solution…

GFS

It is still likely too progressive with things, but even that run would give us very windy weather with rain to snow and snow showers and squalls through Christmas morning.

Have a great Friday and take care.

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A touch of winter today

Good Thursday, everyone. We’re tracking some winter weather toward central and eastern Kentucky today. Much of this will be weakening as it pushes in, but it may cause a few issues early this morning the farther west you live.

This is all part of a pattern that is making a rapid transition into a very wintry one. That could mean good news for folks wanting some snow for Christmas. More on that in a bit.

Let’s start things out with what’s going on out there today. The western part of the state is likely to start things out with a mix of snow, sleet and freezing rain. That could cause some travel issues. Some of that will try to scoot into central and southern Kentucky this morning. With temps below freezing, that could mean a slick spot or two.

Current temperatures

Hamburg Area from WKYT Studio
Lexington

I-75 @ Winchester Road Lexington

I-75 @ Winchester Road

US 60 @ US 127 Frankfort

US60 @ US127

US 127 @ Frankfort Frankfort

US127 @ Frankfort KY

With today’s system to our west being a little stronger, it is stealing a lot of the energy that was slated for our weekend storm. That means a weaker and farther south tracking system for Saturday. This could still throw a touch of winter weather in here, but the impact looks to be pretty small.

The Christmas week setup is now getting a lot of attention from forecasters across the country. A huge buckle in the jet stream could create a bomb of a storm system across the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes on Christmas Eve.

Euro 2Check out the look from the European for next Wednesday morning…

Euro 3 That’s pretty darn wicked. Here’s a little more in depth look at what the same model run shows…

Euro

That’s a week away and that’s an eternity in the world of weather. Still, that’s pretty darn wild to see anytime of the year, especially around Christmas.

Have a great day and take care.

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Tracking the snow chances

Good Wednesday to one and all. We’re around a week out from Christmas, and the word snow starts to take on a whole new meaning for many folks. Even those who usually hate snow are looking for some of it this time of year. They might be in luck, as I’m tracking several snow chances over the next few weeks.

We could even see a snowflake or two out there Wednesday under mostly cloudy skies. Highs will only be in the mid- and upper 30s in most areas. Gusty winds will make it feel much colder.

The potential for a little light snow on Thursday is increasing. The western half of the state has a decent chance of picking up on some light accumulation. The European Ensembles:

Euro 4

Some light snow and flurries will try to streak across the entire state before weakening.

The next system coming our way is the southern storm from Friday night into Saturday. The models continue to go back and forth on the strength and track of this, but I do expect a decent swath of winter weather across Kentucky.

The latest European Model shows this well:

Euro SnowThe European Ensembles show a greater shield of winter weather:

Euro 5My concern continues to revolve around the possibility that the models are in their window of waffle and go back toward a slightly stronger system. We shall see how that shakes out in the coming days.

Christmas week continues to show some big potential for cold and snow for millions of people, and that includes our region. The prime time to watch will be late Tuesday and Christmas Eve. The upper levels are primed for a big system. Check out the European Ensembles for Christmas Eve:

Euro 3The GFS Ensembles aren’t too far behind:

GFS 3Another system will follow that up a few days after Christmas.

Make it a great day and take care.

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A wintry look ahead

Good Tuesday, everyone. Colder air is slowly pushing back into our region, and that will set the stage for a lot of winter over the next few weeks. This all begins with a couple of winter weather threats later this week and this weekend.

Tuesday’s weather will feature highs starting in the mid- and upper 40s and then dropping into the low 40s from west to east in the afternoon. Off-and-on showers will be around as winds gust behind a cold front moving through.

Current temperatures

Highs Wednesday will hit the 30s, with clouds hanging tough and the chance for a stray snowflake or two.

The action gets started with the potential for a streak of light snow and flurries for parts of the region Wednesday night and Thursday. The European Model shows the areas having the best chance to see some snow:

Euro 3

The best chance will be in the west and south, but some snowflakes could fly anywhere at some point.

The same run of the European Model is a little farther south than earlier runs with the weekend winter storm potential:

Euro Euro Snow

Again, the models will show deviations from run to run, and that always happens. As I mentioned a few days ago, there’s a better chance this storm goes too far south than too far north and produces just rain.

The control run of the European Ensembles didn’t budge from what they have shown in recent days:

Euro 4 Euro 5

The GFS continues to be lost in the woods, but the “new” GFS continues to strongly trend toward what the European Model has shown in recent days.

It’s still pretty early, but the potential for significant winter weather for our region is increasing. It’s far from a sure thing, but you have to like how things are looking from four days out.

Speaking of looking good, the signal for some Christmas Eve and Christmas Day fun continues to show up very well:

Euro 2 Make it a great day and take care.

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Wintry weather fights back this week

Good Monday and welcome to the week before Christmas. Old Man Winter is threatening to fight back into the Bluegrass State this week. We have a couple of chances for wintry weather, with the potential bigger of the two coming late Friday.

Let’s start things out with where we are Monday, and that’s dreary. Cloudy skies with highs in the upper 40s to near 50 will give way to rainy weather from west to east. The showers will arrive late Monday afternoon and evening.

Current temperatures

Those showers are ahead of a cold front swinging across the region Monday night and early Tuesday. There will be gusty winds and falling temperatures as readings drop toward 40 during the afternoon.

I can’t rule out a few flurries Tuesday night and early Wednesday as even colder air pushes in. Highs on Wednesday will mainly be in the middle 30s.

That sets the stage for some active weather for the second half of the week and the weekend. The European Model continues to throw a potential big winter storm our way by the end of the week. It’s also showing the sneaky snow system I’ve talked about, starting late Wednesday into Thursday:

Euro 2That one is showing up more and more as we inch closer to it.

The end of-week and weekend storm on the European Model continues to show up strongly. The signal for this has been there for a while, so I’m not surprised. If you want a winter storm to hit all of Kentucky, the track on the latest European Model is the track for you:

Euro Euro 3

This potential storm is now four days from beginning, so we have to give it a little more attention than something beyond seven days.

We often talk about a northwest trend in storms as we get closer. I don’t think that’s the case with this one. If anything, we will have to watch to see if this trends farther south and east or even for a much weaker system. I think it’s more possible that this thing will miss us south than it is to have the storm cut toward the Great Lakes and bring rain. Time will tell.

The pattern from later this month into January is likely to take on a very extreme look. A major period of blocking will develop across the North Pole and parts of Canada Christmas week into New Year’s week. That sends a deep trough across the country and it has “deep freeze” written all over it:

GFS

That’s one wicked pattern, folks. It will wind up much colder than my winter forecast called for, and it was already calling for a frigid January!

Have a great Monday and take care.

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A busy week of weather ahead

Good Sunday, everyone. We’re wrapping up the weekend on a cloudy and rather cool note across central and eastern Kentucky. What about the week ahead? It’s looking more and more like we’re making the transition into wintertime with a very active setup looming.

Temps today will range from the low to mid 40s under mostly cloudy skies. A light shower or a few sprinkles will be possible.

Current temperatures

Thermometers may surge close to 50 on Monday as low pressure works toward the region from the west. Showers will break out ahead of this system during the afternoon and evening hours. That will be followed by much colder air for Tuesday:

GFS

Temps will tumble for the middle of the week with 30s for highs and 20s for lows. This will lead us into a setup featuring another storm system scooting our way by late week into next weekend.

If you’re a fan of snow, the European Model is your best buddy:

Euro

Euro 2Other models aren’t as bullish on this scenario, but if there’s one model you want on your side, it’s the European Model. It’s a storm system that is definitely worth tracking in the coming days.

Christmas week is one that continues to take on a VERY cold look with the potential for another storm system or two.

The GFS Ensembles for Christmas week…

GFS 2

The control run of the Ensembles has a brutal look to it…

GFS 3

Notice the tremendous amount of blocking along the west coast and across northern Canada. That’s the look some of the historic winter’s from the past have given us. Now, I’m not saying this is a historic winter… but that’s pretty awesome to see if you like cold and snow.

Make it a great Sunday and take care.

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Tracking a very active pattern ahead

Good Saturday, everyone. Clouds have rolled back into central and eastern Kentucky and they are helping to keep us chilly. These clouds may even throw some sprinkles or showers your way into Sunday.

All of this is part of a very active weather pattern taking shape for the next few weeks. Of course, the next few weeks make up Christmas and the holiday season.  That means most folks would like to see a little bit of snow during this time. The setup should give us several chances before we flip the calendar to 2015.

Let’s talk a little bit about the weekend that’s starting out. Clouds increase today and it continues to look like those clouds will throw some light showers or sprinkles our way. The best chance comes tonight and Sunday. High temps this weekend stay in the normal 40s.

Current temperatures

A storm system roll into town with rain from west to east on Monday. That system then rolls through here Tuesday with much colder air coming in behind it. The European Model shows the cold look…

Euro That’s some pretty cold stuff for the middle and end of next week. Can we get some flakes out of that cold? It’s possible to get some behind the departing low Tuesday night and we will have to watch for some overrunning moisture streaming our way by Thursday…

Euro 2

I continue to see a strong signal for a bigger storm by the end of next week into the following weekend. The control run of the GFS Ensembles shows the low well…

GFS

That’s a pretty strong track for a lot of winter weather around here and across the Ohio Valley. Btw… the colors are pressure anomalies and not temperatures.

The European Model is the strongest and most wrapped up with this storm. Here’s Friday evening…

Euro 3

Saturday Morning

Euro 4

You can see where the freezing line is on the right of those maps. That’s not a good look… but it’s a week away and kinda silly to be worrying about temps when the storm track changes with each run of each model.

Have a great day and take care.

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Clouds return this weekend

Good Friday to one and all. Sunshine paid a long overdue visit to the Bluegrass State on Thursday, and it should be back today. Soak it up, because clouds push in again this weekend as temperatures finally get closer to normal. That sets us up for a very active pattern settling in for next week.

Today will feature partly sunny skies with highs in the low 40s in most areas. The normal high is 45 degrees in Lexington, so we will probably come up just short of that.

Saturday will see the clouds returning, with highs again in the low 40s. The NAM shows highs even lower than that:

NAM 2

The same model then goes on to show some sprinkles and light showers late Saturday night and Sunday:

NAM 4Highs on Sunday should hit the middle 40s in many areas, even with the clouds around.

The next storm system moves in late Monday into Tuesday. That brings rain our way and will be followed by much colder air by Tuesday night and Wednesday:

GFS 2That could even bring some snowflakes to parts of the region if things work out.

The models continue to point toward a much bigger storm trying to develop later next week and the following weekend. As expected, they are changing from run to run, but the European Model has a nice look for winter lovers:

Euro

It’s a super-busy weather pattern taking shape over the next few weeks. Throw in an increase in cold air, and we could be tracking multiple snow threats before the year is out.

Have a great day and take care.

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Trying to find some sunshine

Good Thursday, everyone. Sunshine has been in very short supply across our region in December. Cloudy skies and overall dreary weather has been the rule, so a little sunshine would go a long way for many folks.

It looks like we can get at least some rays of sun over the next several days. That doesn’t mean we’re going to see a lot of it, but we can’t really be choosy at this point. Some breaks may try to develop Thursday afternoon, with highs in the upper 30s. Gusty winds will make it feel a little colder than that.

Sustained winds

Current temperatures

Friday will see some more breaks in the clouds, with readings likely reaching the low 40s. That’s a good-looking start to the weekend. But will it last?

The colder air is likely to push off to our east, with mild weather staying to our west and north. That leaves Kentucky in limbo, and it could see more clouds develop. We will have to watch for that this Saturday and Sunday.

The temps for the weekend don’t look as mild as they once did. The NAM is showing the cold hanging tough, but the Canadian Model shows highs in the 40s:

CanadianThose numbers are about normal for this time of year.

Monday might see us spike toward 50 as clouds thicken, with rain developing later in the day as another upper low cruises our way.

The European Model brings this bad boy right on top of us. Check out the progression from Sunday through Tuesday:

EuroThe overall weather pattern begins to look more and more like winter as we head into Christmas week.

Make it a great day and take care.

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Cold and dreary weather rolls on

Good Wednesday, everyone. This has been a very ugly first 10 days of December. We’ve seen only a few hours of sunshine for the entire month, and it looks as if the clouds and cold will continue. For folks looking for some sunshine, I might have some for the weekend. Might being the key word.

Wednesday’s clouds will continue to spit our some snowflakes across the region. Highs will stay in the 30s, with gusty winds making it feel like the 20s from time to time. The flakes won’t really show up on radar because they’re very fine.

Current temperatures

The big cutoff low across the northeast continues to show up slower on the American Models. Check out the NAM:

NAMThat’s a flow that should keep highs in the 30s for Thursday and maybe Friday. It also will produce some… wait for it… clouds. There is some indication of clouds and sprinkles trying to develop over the weekend. That’s when temps begin to moderate, but the latest model runs are tempering the temperatures. The raw numbers from the GFS now have the highest temperature for Lexington at only 50 degrees, and that comes Sunday.

Whatever happens to our temps this weekend, another system should quickly close in on us from the west late Monday and Tuesday. The Canadian model shows the upper low cruising right on top of us:

Canadian 2

That would bring some wintry weather our way with a track like that.

You will see some wild model swings with that system because we have so much upper-level energy. This pattern has one of the more active jet streams that you will ever see, and that’s likely to lead to some extreme weather down the road.

The ensembles from all the models suggest that winter really cranks up during Christmas week. Check out the setup:

CanadianIf that proves to be correct, we could be looking at some snowflakes for the big week. I will break out the white Christmas meter this weekend.

Enjoy the day and take care.

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