Tracking storms and Tropical Storm Alberto

Good Saturday to one and all. The long Memorial Day Weekend is off and running with an increase in showers and storms. The scattered boomers will be around for much of the weekend, but it’s not an all weekend rain.

Today’s rains will be locally heavy at times and could cause local high water issues. Outside of the storms, temps hit the low and middle 80s for many. The tropical humidity will make it feel much warmer.

Sunday’s weather looks a lot like today, but we may see less storms around for Memorial Day. With less storms, temps can surge into the mid and upper 80s. Keep in mind, those cookouts will be a steam bath with all the tropical humidity.

Did someone say tropics? Tropical Storm Alberto is working into the Gulf of Mexico and will target the central Gulf by Memorial Day. Here’s the latest from the National Hurricane Center:

cone graphic

I now think there is a chance this becomes a hurricane before coming ashore.

If you go back and read my posts from early May, I pointed out the increased activity around Florida was likely a signal on where early season tropical development would happen. Hello, Alberto!

Each of the past 2 years, the remnant low from a tropical system moved directly across Kentucky. Can we make it 3 in a row with Tropical Storm Alberto? That’s a real possibility as we head into the first half of next week.

The European Model continues to show the leftovers of Alberto moving right on top of us by Wednesday:

The model then follows that up with another system diving in from the west, bringing additional showers and storms:

Those two together bring a lot of rain to the region. Check out the European Model rain totals through next week:

The GFS is now very similar looking with Alberto and the system following it:

The Canadian has been ahead of all the other models with the track of Alberto and continues to bring it right on top of Kentucky:

Here are your tracking toys for the day:

Have a great Saturday and take care.

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Tropical moisture means storms for the big weekend

Good Friday, everyone. We are kicking off the long Memorial Day Weekend with scattered showers on the increase. The boomers will slowly increase in the coming days, but this does not look like a complete washout of a weekend. You will find some dry times to get those cookouts in. 🙂

Today’s scattered storms go up during the afternoon and evening hours as tropical humidity slowly increases. The steamy air continues this weekend, leading to rounds of showers and storms. Highs are generally in the steamy 80s, but the afternoon storms will steal the show. Watch for tropical downpours that can lead to local high water issues.

The forecast hasn’t changes much over the past few days:

Our first tropical system of the season is developing in the Gulf of Mexico. This will become Alberto as it heads toward the central Gulf Coast:

That system will head toward the central Gulf coast this weekend, with many models ramping it up right before coming ashore:

From there, the European Model brings the remnants right on top of Kentucky by Wednesday:

The Canadian Model has been saying this for days, and continues to do so:

The GFS continues to play a major game of catch up to the other models, but is slowly coming around to a similar idea:

If the remnants do indeed make their way into Kentucky, that would obviously up the ante on the flooding potential. It would also mark the third consecutive year with the remnant low from a tropical system moving into the bluegrass state. That would be a pretty amazing accomplishment!

I have you all set to track today’s shower and storm action:

Make it a fantastic Friday and take care.

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Boomers for the big weekend ahead

Good Thursday, everyone. We have a really, really nice day going on out there today, but bigger chances are lurking for the big weekend ahead of us. Memorial Day weekend is ahead of us, but the increasing threat for cookout crashing storms may steal the holiday show.

Let’s begin with today and roll ahead. Highs will top out in the upper 70s to low 80s for much of the region, with a mainly dry sky. I can’t rule out isolated storms going up across the southeast during the afternoon and evening:

As far as your cookout plans for Memorial Day weekend, a lot hinges upon what develops in the Gulf, and where it ultimately winds up. The National Hurricane Center continues to monitor the setup…

Moisture from the Gulf will get drawn northward into Kentucky, leading to scattered showers and storms going up on Saturday. A weak front settles in and slows down over the weekend, allowing for a nice conveyor belt of moisture to set up. That shows up on the NAM through Saturday night:

Here’s a look at the rest of the forecast through Memorial Day:

Locally heavy rains will be likely from any storm that goes up, but it’s not going to rain all the time.

Have a terrific Thursday and take care.

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All eyes on storms for Memorial Day Weekend

Good Wednesday to one and all. As a cold front works to our east today, it’s bringing a much better brand of air to our region. This means a few days of nice weather, but that won’t hang around into the big holiday weekend ahead of us. Rounds of showers and storms look to return.

Highs today will generally range from the upper 70s to low 80s in most areas. The day may start with a shower or storm in the east, but skies become partly sunny:

Lows by Thursday morning drop into the 50s for the first time in a long, long time. The rest of the day looks really good with temps back into the upper 70s and low 80s with a mix of sun and clouds.

Memorial Day Weekend will kick off with isolated showers and storms developing on Friday, with highs in the 80s. From there, things only look to go downhill.

The unofficial kickoff to summer is Memorial Day weekend and everyone is hoping for nice weather. Pools open, backyards fill with the smell of burgers and dogs on the grill, and lakes are generally packed. None of that may be true this weekend as our pattern looks very active.

For a while, I’ve talked about the potential for a tropical system in the Gulf. The National Hurricane Center is highlighting this region for potential development over the next few days:

As that system works across the Gulf, we will be dealing with a front slowing down across the Ohio valley, setting up a pipeline of tropical moisture from the Gulf into Kentucky. That would lead to rounds of showers and storms starting as early as Friday and continuing into the weekend. What happens with the Gulf system? That may get drawn northward and impact our weather:

With or without the actual remnant low moving over us, plenty of tropical moisture will be around to bring rounds of showers and storms.

Have a great Wednesday and take care.

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A few storms for Election Day

Good Tuesday, everyone. It’s Election Day in the Commonwealth with storms and steamy temps on the weather ballot. The two are running neck and neck entering today, with storms likely coming away with a small victory.

Those scattered storms may, just like the past week, be locally strong or severe. Here’s the updated Severe Weather Outlook from the Storm Prediction Center:

Heavy rains may also cause a few high water issues to develop from time to time. That said, it’s not going to rain all day.

A cold front pushes east of us on Wednesday, allowing for a much better brand of air to slide in here for a couple days. Temps and humidity levels both come way down through Thursday, so let’s soak that up.

Another system dives in here by the weekend, bringing the potential for more showers and thunderstorms. At the same time, a tropical system is trying to develop in the Gulf of Mexico.

Another system approaches the region from the northwest by the Memorial Day weekend. That will bring an increase in showers and storms, as we watch the Gulf of Mexico. That’s where something tropical is likely to develop and it may directly or indirectly influence our weather.

Watch how the models are very stormy and unsettled all the way through next week:

Canadian

GFS

Our incredibly soggy 2018 shows no signs of letting up!

Here are your Election Day tracking toys:

Current watches
Current Watches

Possible watch areas
Current MDs

Happy Election Day and take care.

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More storms start the week

Good Monday, folks. Stop me if you’ve heard this one before… Rounds of showers and storms are pushing across the region. A few of these storms my be a little on the strong side. As we track the action today, we are also looking ahead toward the long Memorial Day weekend that’s ahead of us.

As always, we start with what’s going on out there today. Highs will generally be in the upper 70s and low 80s with very muggy air in place. That muggy air will help fuel the fire for showers and storms to go up. Locally heavy rains will be the main player, bringing a renewed high water threat.

Some of the storms may also produce small hail and gusty winds. Here’s the current Severe Weather Outlook from the Storm Prediction Center:

Additional showers and storms will be around on Tuesday, with locally heavy rains the main threat. Local high water issues ma be noted at anytime today through Tuesday.

We may actually catch a break in the storms by the middle of the week.

The storm threat increases again as we head into Memorial Day weekend. This is also when something tropical may get going down in the gulf of Mexico. Whatever happens with that system could impact our weather for the big weekend and into next week.

The Canadian Model has a developing storm that heads toward the central Gulf Coast states, then actually takes a ride into Kentucky. It does so by swinging a deepening trough into our region, picking up whatever is down there:

The European Model has the tropical system missing the trough, leaving the system to meander around for days:

The Icon Model looks to be taking a similar route:

I leave you with your Monday storm trackers:

Current watches
Current Watches

Possible watch areas
Current MDs

Have a great day and take care.

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Tracking the severe potential

Good Sunday to one and all. We have the potential for strong to severe storms across the region today.  This continues our recent trend of stormy weather, that looks to continue into next week.

One cluster of storms may move in early today, with another possible late this afternoon into the evening. That’s the one that may bring the severe threat to our region. Here’s the latest from the Storm Prediction Center:

Damaging winds and large hail are the main players. These storms will be heavy rain makers and may cause additional high water issues.

Additional rounds of storms will be sweeping in here on Monday, potentially bringing another severe weather threat. Here’s the latest from the SPC:

More rounds of storms will likely hang tough through Tuesday, but a little break in the action is possible for a few days after that. Temps will continue to average well above normal, in what is likely to be one of the warmest Mays on record.

By later this week into Memorial Day weekend, a lot of what happens will likely be dictated by what happens in the tropics. Some early season development is possible around Florida or into the Gulf of Mexico. Take all models with a big grain of salt, but it’s fun to see how they handle any POSSIBLE system.

The Canadian takes it into the central Gulf and actually has some impact on our weather:

Here are your tracking tools for the day:

Current watches
Current Watches

Possible watch areas
Current MDs

Have a great Sunday and take care.

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More storms for the weekend

Good Saturday to one and all. Rounds of showers and thunderstorms rumble on across Kentucky this weekend, bringing the threat for additional high water issues. This stormy setup appears locked in through next week, at least.

Today’s storms won’t be constant, but will be putting down enough rain to cause local flash flooding problems. A few of the storms may be strong or even severe in the east. This is the area under a minimal severe risk from the Storm Prediction Center:

Another surge of very warm and humid air is pushing in here on Sunday and may be accompanied by some storm clusters rolling in from the west and northwest. A few of these may be strong or severe:

These storms are in response to another low moving in from the northwest, and that will keep rounds of storms going into Monday. Some of those could again be strong or locally severe.

Next week continues the steamy and stormy pattern in our part of the world. If you’re making plans for Memorial Day weekend, much of what happens with our weather may depend on the tropics.

Several models develop some kind of system near Florida:

That’s nothing more than a model signal for now, but it’s interesting to see for the month of May.

Here are your Saturday tracking toys:

Make it a great day and take care.

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Tracking another heavy rain threat

Good Friday, everyone. We are ending the week with additional rounds of showers and storms moving across the area. Just like in the previous days, these storms will put down very heavy rains that can lead to local high water issues.

Today’s storms may have a little extra to work with as low pressure moves in from the southwest. That spin in the atmosphere will combine with a deep inflow of moisture from the south to give us a better shot at heavy rain.

Given how much water has fallen in recent days, we will need to be on heightened alert for the potential of flash flooding.

Here are your high water tracking toys for the day:

Additional showers and storms come our way through the weekend, with strong storms a real possibility. Additional rounds of boomers sticking around through next week. Check out this one week animation from the GFS:

You can also see some kind of tropical system developing near Florida next weekend. The models have been suggesting this for a long time now. The pattern actually favors something there.

Regardless, for us, it’s a lot of rain over the next week:

Remember, those numbers really don’t take into consideration totals you can get from individual thunderstorms.

Make it a fantastic Friday and take care.

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More storms rumble through

Good Thursday, everyone. Rounds of showers and thunderstorms continue to target the bluegrass state, with each round bringing heavy rainfall. These additional rounds can put down enough rain to cause local high water issues.

A stationary front continues to wander about the region, helping fire up these storms. As moisture from the south continues to stream in, that ups the ante for locally heavy rain numbers showing up.

Similar to what we have seen over the past few days, local flash flooding issues may develop. Here are the tracking toys for the day:

A disturbance that started in the Gulf of Mexico will influence our weather on Friday. That may bring a slightly better chance for high water producing showers and storms:

The models are spitting out some general 1″-3″ rains, but really don’t take into account local amounts from thunderstorms:

The stormy setup is likely to continue into next week. Watch how the total rain numbers continue to climb:

Again, this is a setup primed to deliver additional flash flooding issues to our part of the world.

Make it a great day and take care.

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