Tracking rain back into the region

Good Sunday to one and all. We have a big time storm system rolling into the region and this is bringing heavy rain and wind our way. Once we get through this system, we will see the overall setup make a transition back toward winter.

Heavy rain takes over today and carries us into Monday as this huge storm system impacts our region. High winds and some thunder and lightning will also be possible during this time.

The GFS continues to target central and eastern Kentucky for the highest totals:

GFS Rain

Here’s your regional radar to track the action:

The pattern will then begin to turn back toward winter as shots of much colder air sweep in here. This gets started later this week and will carry us into the first week of February:

GFS

With a northwesterly flow, light snow and snow shower events will periodically move in here later in the week into next weekend. Each of these waves can put down light accumulations.

If we look at the individual members of the GFS Ensembles, we find they all show snow chances ramping up over the next few weeks:

GFS Snow 3

Make it a sensational Sunday and take care.

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A spring pattern brings heavy rain

Good Saturday and welcome to a weekend straight out of March. We have a massive storm system rolling our way for the next few days. This storm will unleash heavy rain, thunderstorms and very gusty winds. Beyond that, winter settles back into the region.

Today’s record high in Lexington is 72 degrees, but I don’t think we will get there. Highs will generally be in the mid and upper 60s under a mix of sun and clouds. Winds will be very gusty and I can’t rule out isolated showers or thunderstorms.

The NAM brings one low into western Kentucky with a bigger storm going up just to our east. This is impressive on the NAM:

NAM

Notice how the NAM is now ramping up rain totals in the east because of that stronger low:

NAM

The GFS is pretty similar:

GFS

The GFS is also targeting eastern Kentucky for some big time rains:

GFS RAIN

That’s an ugly look and one we will need to monitor very closely this weekend. There’s also the chance for a strong storm or two on Sunday.

The GFS continues to try to spawn a few snowflakes by Monday night:

GFS snow

Winter returns late next week as we kick off a series of systems diving in from the northwest. The GFS shows some decent action from late next week into the following week:

GFS snow 2

Have a great Saturday and take care.

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Another period of extreme weather

Good Friday to one and all. Heavy rain will push out of the state early in the day, leaving behind some local high-water problems. From there, spring shows up again and ushers in more wet weather later in the weekend.

In true Kentucky fashion, Old Man Winter gets ready to crash back in next week.

Friday will feature early-day rain, with an improving sky in the afternoon. That will allow highs to surge deep into the 60s on a gusty southwesterly wind.

Track away:

The weekend system will throw in some scattered stuff  on Saturday as temps spike into the 60s.

The exact track of the big storm is still in question for Sunday and Monday, but the NAM shows this system rolling across Kentucky:

NAM 3

That’s a very impressive system, with heavy rain, high winds and some thunder. Here’s what that run of the NAM is spitting out for rainfall on Sunday through 7 p.m:

NAM 2

Obviously, if the NAM is correct, we are going to have some flooding problems Sunday and Monday. The GFS continues to be just a bit farther south, with the heaviest rains in Tennessee. Given that this looks like a winter system, I wonder if the GFS is treating it like one and showing it farther south than it actually will be?

After all this, here comes winter for the second part of next week. The first system arrives from the northwest with some light snow possible:

GFS 2

Additional systems then dive in on the GFS:

GFS 3

Here’s a true clipper showing up:

GFS 4

And then a super clipper after that:

GFS 5

Make it a great Friday and take care.

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Heavy rain returns

Good Thursday to one and all. Another round of very heavy rain is taking aim at the region and could cause some local high-water problems. This continues to be part of a super-soaker pattern that threatens to turn very wintry later next week.

Thursday’s rain will sweep in from southwest to northeast and will be heaviest in the central and western parts of the state. A general 1 to 2 inches of rain will be likely through Friday morning in these areas.

Given how saturated the ground is and how high our waterways already are, some local flooding problems could develop.

Here’s regional radar to track the action:

Very mild air then surges in later Friday and Saturday as highs soar into the 60s. This will be ahead of a massive storm system working from west to east across the region later this weekend.

Scattered showers and a thunderstorm will try to develop ahead of this on Saturday:

GFS 2

The new GFS takes this storm directly east across the Tennessee Valley, putting rotating heavy rain bands across Kentucky:

GFS

If that is the track of the low, look out, flooding would be a very high threat around here.

The European is just a smidge farther south and you can see how the colder air comes in behind this into early next week:

Euro

As winter takes control by the second half of next week, there will be several systems diving into the deepening trough across the eastern part of the country. The European model now blows up one of those systems into a winter storm:

Euro 3

The GFS isn’t ready to commit to that, right now, but it does show snow makers diving in from the northwest:

GFS 3

Have a great Thursday and take care.

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A small break from the rain

Good Wednesday, folks. The rain train is taking a small break across the state, but the break won’t last long. Additional rounds of showers and storms move back in over the next few days, with heavier rain arriving this weekend.

Wednesday is a dry day for many areas, with mostly cloudy skies. Highs will be in the 40s on a westerly wind.

Watch how quickly another southern system roars in from the southwest Thursday and early Friday:

GFS

That can easily drop an additional 1 to 2 inches of rain on Kentucky.

This sets the stage for some possible high-water problems later this weekend and Monday. That’s when the big daddy system develops and slowly works across our region:

GFS 2

Heavy rain and thunderstorms will be noted, and the rain will fall on soaked ground with swollen waterways. The potential for high water is real and something we have to keep a very close eye on.

The last two runs of the GFS show areas of 4 inches of rain through Monday:

GFS Rain

GFS Rain 2

Believe it or not, there is a good chance that the model is underdone with the rain totals.

In addition to the heavy rain, the winds are going to be absolutely cranking. Gusts of 50 mph will be possible at times with such a powerful low on top of us.

There is the chance of some snowflakes getting into the action by Monday as the upper low passes over us.

From there, winter takes control, with another system moving in after the “big daddy.” Looking at the pattern, there’s a good chance to get snow on the ground before the month is over. That’s especially the case with these temps taking control in the final week of January:

GFS Temps

Have a wonderful Wednesday and take care.

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Action-packed forecast period

Good Tuesday, folks. There is no shortage of busy weather to talk about for the Bluegrass State. We have several systems lined up to take aim at the region, with a lot of rain falling in the coming days. Eventually, this pattern takes on more of a wintry look.

Scattered showers and some thunderstorms are out there Tuesday, but it’s not going to rain all day. Winds will be gusty, with highs in the 60s.

 

We go get a one-day break in the action Wednesday. This will lead to slightly chillier air before another surge of mild and storms by Thursday. Locally heavy rains carry us into Friday.

Another massive system then makes a run at us later this weekend into early next week. This huge upper level system is likely to spawn a powerful storm system right on top of the region:

Euro

This can lead to high winds and heavy rains at the beginning, with a potential transition toward some winter stuff under the low by Monday:

Euro 2

Cutoff lows can get a little wild, and this one has some potential to do just that.

The next week can unleash an additional 2 to 4 inches of rain across the Bluegrass State. This is pretty crazy.

I’ve also been talking about how the cutoff system probably gets the ball rolling toward another back-loaded winter with cold and snow. Well, here’s what the European model shows following that upper low by the middle of next week:

Euro 3

Given the block showing up over the top, watch for that system, similar to the one this weekend, to trend farther south.

The ensembles’ five-day temp average to end January:

Euro 4

Have a great day and take care.

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Warmer air joins the soggy setup

Good Monday, everyone. We are coming off one of he ugliest weather weekends I can ever remember around here. Things can only get better from here, right? Well, yes and no. Temps are going to warm up, but the soggy setup remains.

Temps today will surge toward the 60s on a strong southwesterly wind. Scattered showers will also be possible through the afternoon, but rounds of showers and storms kick in later this evening.

Additional showers and thunderstorms will be around into Tuesday as temps stay in the 60s for highs.

We may catch a chilly break on Wednesday, but more showers and thunderstorms work in later Thursday and Friday.

Canadian

We continue to watch this pattern evolve toward another back loaded winter. One of the cool ways to illustrate this change is to look at the 500mb anomalies for the next 10 days on the European Model. Watch how the big warm ridge across the USA gets pushed north into Canada. As it does so it strengthens into a healthy block allowing bowling ball winter systems to roll eastward across the country:

Euro

That first massive cutoff low blows up across the region about a week from now. Watch how the surface low rapidly deepens toward the northwest:

Euro 3

Here’s a different look at that storm system:

Euro

Cutoffs like that can produce some very extreme weather and that is something we will be mindful off as we go through the next week.

Have a great Monday and take care.

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Another active week ahead

Good Sunday, folks. We are wrapping up one of the ugliest weekends we have had in a long, long time. More of the same continues out there today, but some changes are coming for the week ahead.

Those changes include a surge in temps to go along with some rounds of showers and thunderstorms. As this March-like setup continues, Old Man Winter is plotting his revenge for the following week.

Highs today range from the mid 30s in the north to near 60 in the far southeast. Additional showers and gusty winds will be notes:

Monday will find the warmer air wins the battle by Monday on a strong southwesterly wind. Temps should hit the 60s with showers and thunderstorms increasing late in the day. Those will continue into Tuesday as a weak cold front moves in:

GFS

After a brief drop in temps, the next system quickly ejects out of the southwest and brings more showers and thunderstorms in here for the end of the week:

GFS 2

At first glance, that looks like a severe weather maker to our south, with the potential to move into our part of the world. Worth watching.

After that, we continue to find all the models following the theme of the past several winters… Back loaded snow and cold.

There is strong agreement for a major cutoff storm system late next weekend into early the following week:

Euro

Watch how the European Model wraps this system up and allows cold air in here:

Euro 2

Those setups can lead to high winds and thunderstorms to start, with cold and snow moving in as winter overwhelms the pattern.

The GFS is also showing this:

GFS

This follows along very well with what the ensembles have been screaming now for a few days. They continue to point toward a full blown back loaded winter kicking in:

GFS GIf

It’s pretty amazing at how the extremes this winter has thrown at us, so it wouldn’t come as a surprise to see this pattern absolutely tank. It would certainly follow the precedent set by the past several winters.

Have a great day and take care.

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A very ugly weekend of weather

Good Saturday, everyone. If you look up the definition of ugly weather in the dictionary, it will simply tell you to look outside. The weather we have out there right now is just flat out nasty and will carry us through Sunday.

Highs today range from the low and mid 30s in the north, where there could be some ice, to the mid and upper 40s in the south. Rounds of showers will continue to roll through the region from west to east:

There is very little change in the weather through Sunday. This is pretty much a “what you see is what you get” type of a forecast.

Temps surge again by Monday and Tuesday with readings heading toward the 60 degree mark. Gusty showers and thunderstorms will be possible during this time.  This looks like a surge of rain that will be followed by a brief chill down on Wednesday:

GFS 2

In this active pattern, there’s no shortage of systems ready to take its place. Watch how the action increases again by Thursday and Friday:

GFS 4

It’s after this system that we start to see Old Man Winter flex a little muscle. The European Model shows an interesting scenario late next weekend with a huge cutoff storm system developing:

Euro 2

Notice how the higher heights show up in Canada instead of the United States. That allows for a much colder setup with an active southern storm track.

The GFS Ensembles also are on board for this winter pattern taking over:

GFS 3

Have a great Saturday and take care.

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Spring and winter battle it out

Good Friday to one and all. It’s a much colder day out there as winter and spring have a little battle across our region. This fight might set the stage for some ice across northern parts of the state.

In the overall scheme of things, this slugfest in temps means a very active weather pattern over the next week or so.

Temps Friday will be a lot lower than what we had out there Thursday. Highs will range from the low and mid-30s in the north to near 50 in the far south. A gusty shower or two will be noted, with a small threat of freezing rain across the far north:

We know there will be a huge temperature difference from north to south across the region over the next few days. That’s a given. What remains to be seen is exactly where the 32-degree line sets up as additional waves of precipitation move in.

The farther north you are, the more likely the chance of seeing freezing rain from later Friday through Saturday night. The Canadian model freezing rain accumulation map remains largely unchanged:

Canadian

You can clearly see how the far west and far north have the most likely chance of freezing rain, but those will come at different times.

Milder air then surges northward again by later in the weekend and Monday. This could open up the floodgates for additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms through the middle of the week. The GFS keeps spitting out some impressive rain totals:

GFS Rain

Once past this week ahead, winter threatens to take over just about the same time it has each of the past three winters. That’s something I didn’t think would happen this year, but Mother Nature does her own thing.

Right on cue, we are seeing the operational models and the ensembles going in that direction. The latest GFS:

GFS Gif 7

Have a great Friday and take care.

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