Super Bowl weather tracker

Good Sunday and Happy Super Bowl. Our big day will feature a lot of big weather changes blowing across our part of the world. These changes will feature everything from rain and milder air to snow and crashing temps.

A big winter storm is moving through the Ohio Valley today and is taking a track that produces heavy snow well to our north. The actual low pressure looks to work right across northern Kentucky into southern Ohio late today into tonight.

Here’s the track from the GFS:

GFS

That means rain will increase across our region today and could be heavy at times late this afternoon into the evening. Winds will gust up as the low works over our heads. Much colder air then comes in behind the departing low and that means a period of light snow late tonight into early Monday.

That may be just enough snow to cause some slick travel. Something that may add to the slick roads… a HUGE temperature crash. Watch how quickly the numbers drop:

NAM

Wet roads may ice up pretty quickly with that kind of rapid temperature drop. Throw some light accumulations of snow on top and you can have some issues to start the new week.

I leave you with your Super Bowl weather trackers:

Hamburg Area from WKYT Studio
Lexington

I-75 at MP 36
London
I-75 @ MP 36

I-75 at MP 23
Corbin
I-75 @ MP 23

I-75 @ Winchester Road Lexington

I-75 @ Winchester Road

I-75 @ Clays Ferry Bridge South Between Lexington and Richmond

US 60 @ US 127 Frankfort

US60 @ US127

Have a great day and take care.

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Northerly track for our Sunday storm

Good Saturday, everyone. The much anticipated Super Bowl Sunday storm system continues to take a more northerly track. That will leave the bluegrass state with a lot more rain than snow.

Here are the highlights of what to expect:

– A band of light rain and light snow will develop from west to east late this evening into tonight.

– Sunday looks to feature gusty winds and mainly rain across our region as low pressure tracks right on top of the region.

– The more northerly track leaves the primary threat for heavy snow well to our north. Here’s a look at the Highest Risk:

SPECIAL

– I left the chance across Kentucky on the super small chance we see that low wind up a little farther south.

– Rain will likely hang around into Sunday evening before colder air wraps back in Sunday night. That should mean a switch to some snow for many areas.

– A period of light snow will be likely early Monday and that could put down some accumulations. Gusty winds will usher in much colder temps with highs only in the low 20s.

Again, that’s how things currently look with the storm system. I will be monitoring the setup today and have updates if I see any changes.

I leave you with regional radar to track the action in from the west:

Make it a great day and take care.

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Update On The Weekend

Good evening. I wanted to drop by for a quick update on the potential for a winter storm to impact our weather this weekend. The latest trends are for a farther north tracking storm system. That means the greatest chance for big snows looks to be to our north.

My latest thoughts:

SPECIALA wintry mix and rain moves in Saturday night and early Sunday. Mainly rain takes over during the day and lasts into the evening. Colder air moves in Sunday night and Monday with a change to snow a good bet.

Enjoy the evening and take care.

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Tracking snow showers and watching the weekend

Good Friday, folks. At the end of a wintry weather week, we have more winter weather to track. Snow showers and flurries are flying across the region early Friday and could cause a few problems.

That’s the focus of Friday’s weather. The focus of the weekend weather then turns to a developing winter storm that affects our region Sunday and Sunday night.

Let’s start with tracking the snow showers out there now. They won’t be terribly widespread, but they might be just enough to cause some problems. Temps will be in the 20s, and that could mean some slick spots developing on area roads.

Hamburg Area from WKYT Studio
Lexington

I-75 at MP 36
London
I-75 @ MP 36

I-75 at MP 23
Corbin
I-75 @ MP 23

I-75 @ Winchester Road Lexington

I-75 @ Winchester Road

I-75 @ Clays Ferry Bridge South Between Lexington and Richmond

US 60 @ US 127 Frankfort

US60 @ US127

The weekend storm system rolls our way Sunday and Sunday night and will bring the potential for accumulating snow. Where the heaviest snow sets up will depend on where the low tracks. This illustrates what I’m talking about:

SPECIAL

If our low stays across Tennessee, our region would be right in the line of fire. If the low tracks a little farther north, it would send the most snow north of the Ohio River. The exact track might not truly show itself until later Friday or Saturday.

Stay tuned!

Make it a wonderful Friday and take care.

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Gusty winds likely Thursday

Good Thursday to one and all. A very strong clipper system will roll across the state and will bring a lot of changes. All of these changes will lead us into a Super Bowl weekend that might throw more snow our way.

Thursday’s system will provide a quick spike in temps ahead of it and a bigger crash behind it. Here’s a breakdown:

– Wind gusts of 30 mph to 40 mph will be possible.

– Rain showers will then change to snow showers Thursday evening and Thursday night.

-I’m also seeing a bit more of an upslope component taking shape for Friday. That simply means our northwesterly wind will try to squeeze out some snow showers across Central and Eastern Kentucky.

– Slick roads are a possibility for Friday. Winds will continue to be gusty as temps drop during the day. Single-digit wind chills are possible.

With this clipper tending deeper, that is likely to affect the storm system. How so? It could force the system to scoot eastward across the Tennessee Valley. That seems to be a growing trend with the latest computer models. Here’s the European Model:

Euro

That’s a solution the models were showing a few days ago and the one that makes the most meteorological sense right now. That kind of track would try to put down some snow across the state:

Euro 2

The new GFS would suggest a lot more snow around here:

GFS

I will keep telling you to not get caught up on model snowfall forecasts because they will change with each run. I keep focusing on the overall trends and the setup, and so should you. :)

That would unleash some very cold air behind it for Monday.

I leave you with some tracking tools:

Have a great Thursday and take care.

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A small break from the snow

Good Wednesday, everyone. We have a bit of a break in winter on Wednesday, but don’t get used to it. I’m tracking a couple more potential snow-makers in the coming days. One of them could roll into town in time for all those Super Bowl parties.

We will have a partly to mostly sunny sky Wednesday, and that will allow for highs to reach the upper 30s and low 40s in most areas.

A fast-moving clipper works into our region on Thursday. This will bring gusty showers ahead of it, with a quick change to light snow and snow showers behind it:

GFS

Some minor accumulations will be possible Thursday night and Friday morning. Leftover flurries and snow showers could hang around for a blustery and cold Friday.

The weekend system is still on our weather menu, but the details on how it’s prepared are yet to be figured out. I want to continue to emphasize to not get caught up in one model or one model run. Just look back at the past 24 hours worth of model runs and notice how none of them look the same. It’s important to try and find trends in what the models are showing.

The latest GFS takes our storm just to the south of our region:

GFS

As of now, a system with that track and intensity makes more meteorological sense to me, given the look of the pattern. Here’s the snowfall map from that run:

GFS 2Notice how that matches up very well with the snowfall look from the European Ensembles:

Euro Snow

We still have several days to see exactly what type of winter weather that brings our region. Stay tuned.

Have a great day and take care.

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More snow chances showing up

Good Tuesday to one and all.  A weak band of light snow and flurries will continue to push across southern parts of the region early Tuesday. This could cause slicks spots to develop in a few areas. As this one moves out, I’m watching the potential for a few more snow-makers to swing through.

Better conditions push in Tuesday afternoon, with a mix of sun and clouds and highs in the low 30s for many areas. Wednesday looks to be the best day of the week, with a mix of sun and clouds and highs of 40 to 45 degrees.

The next clipper looks to arrive a little quicker Thursday. It might get in here in time to start as a period of freezing rain in the north and east. That would change to rain by the afternoon and evening and then over to light snow Thursday night and Friday morning.

GFSThe timing on that will probably cause some travel problems by Friday morning as very cold air pours in along with the light snow.

The bigger system appears to be on target for Super Bowl weekend. The European Model shows snow for the entire state:

EuroThat’s a system that basically moves due eastward across the lower Tennessee Valley and is similar to what the Canadian was showing earlier.

The European Ensembles show a similar idea:

Euro SnowAgain, we aren’t focusing on any one run of any one model. Just watch the overall trends and how the storm system keeps showing up. It’s nowhere near a slam dunk from this far out, but it certainly should have our attention.

Let’s get back to tracking Tuesday’s weather:

Have a great day and take care.

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Slick roads possible early Monday

Good Monday, everyone. Our day starts out with the potential for black ice across much of Central and Eastern Kentucky. Wet roads from last night could ice over as temps drop into the 20s early in the morning. A touch of light snow won’t help drivers.

I’m not expecting a lot of snow, but some minor accumulations are possible for some areas. I have some tools to help you track whatever is out there:

Hamburg Area from WKYT Studio
Lexington

I-75 at MP 36
London
I-75 @ MP 36

I-75 at MP 23
Corbin
I-75 @ MP 23

I-75 @ Winchester Road Lexington

I-75 @ Winchester Road

I-75 @ Clays Ferry Bridge South Between Lexington and Richmond

US 60 @ US 127 Frankfort

US60 @ US127

Another little disturbance dives in from the northwest Monday night and early Tuesday and could bring a swath of light snow with it.

As we go through all this, the possibility of a historic blizzard is increasing across the northeast. Look at the snow forecast from the European for areas around New York and Boston:

Euro 6

40 mph to 70 mph winds with that? The NWS in Boston thinks it’s possible:

Boston

Back to our weather, another clipper will move in late Thursday into Friday, with rain to light snow.

What happens with this weekend is still to be determined. Our potential is most certainly there. It’s just a matter of how much energy comes out of the southwest and merges with a system diving in from the northwest. The latest runs are going back to our bigger storm idea. The European Model is all in on the storm:

Euro

Make it a great Monday and take care.

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Tracking a clipper into town

Good Sunday afternoon, folks. A clipper is working across the bluegrass state and could bring another round of winter weather tonight and Monday. Slick travel may develop across the region during this time.

The change from rain to snow will first happen in the west and north into this evening. That change will then slowly work toward the east and southeast overnight into Monday morning. The GFS is trying to show a small enhanced band of precipitation just behind the departing low…

GFS

You can also see how moisture lingers across central and eastern Kentucky into Monday as the low bombs out to our east. That’s a setup that can put down some light accumulations of snow around here. The GFS is seeing that possibility…

GFS Snow

As the light snow settles in and the clipper moves east, temps will quickly crash into the low and mid 20s. That could cause some roads to ice up. Keep that in mind if you’re going to be traveling.

Let’s track:

Enjoy the rest of your day and take care.

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Active winter pattern ahead

Good Sunday to one and all. Old Man Winter came roaring back into the bluegrass state and it appears he’s gonna stick around a while. We are beginning a very active period of winter weather as we close out January and say hello to February.

The snow from Friday night was impressive and has actually put Lexington into the above normal category on the winter. Here are some stats I shared on twitter:

<blockquoteclass=”twitter-tweet” lang=”en”>

Lexington officially recorded 5″ of snow last night. Puts above normal for January and near normal for the winter. #kywx #WKYTRulesWinter

— Chris Bailey (@Kentuckyweather) January 24, 2015

<blockquoteclass=”twitter-tweet” lang=”en”>

Since November 1 Lexington has had 6.6″ of snow. Almost 1″ above normal and .1″ above this same time last winter. #kywx #WKYTRulesWinter

— Chris Bailey (@Kentuckyweather) January 24, 2015

Where do we go from here? I have a whole lot of model maps to break things down for you.

The first set of maps deal with a clipper working in here later today into Monday. There continues to be a slight adjustment to the south on the track of this clipper. The GFS…

GFS

The NAM…

NAM

While the track on both models is a bit farther south, we would still need that to drop a littler farther south for the best snows to fly across Kentucky. As of now, showers develop Sunday with a quick switch to light snow Sunday night into Monday. Some accumulation can’t be ruled out. That’s also a very windy system that blows up into a monster as it turns the corner up the east coast. We may see a blizzard develop in the northeastern part of the country.

A weak system dives in behind that Monday night into Tuesday…

NAM 2

That won’t show up well on the models, but you can see the NAM is spitting out a stripe of snow from working in from northwest to southeast. Those can sometimes bring sneaky snow accumulations.

Things turn quiet by Wednesday before another clipper moves in late Thursday into Friday. The GFS…

GFS 2

The European Model…

Euro 2

That may bring another chance of showers ahead of it and light snow behind it.

That leads us into the weekend and several models continue to indicate the potential for a much bigger storm system impacting our region. Here’s the GFS…

GFS 3

That’s a week away and a lot can change, but the models have been showing the storm signal for several days in a row.

Storm or no storm… arctic air sweeps in during this same time and that’s how we open up the month of February.

Make it a  great day and take care.

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