A wild weekend of weather ahead

Good Friday, everyone. We are rolling our way into a wild weekend of weather. A potent storm system cranks up as it moves into the region on Saturday, bringing everything from strong storms to a few snowflakes.

The storm today is developing out in the plains states and will work toward the Great Lakes this weekend. This will give us mainly dry skies today, with a mix of clouds and sun. Temps start cold, but moderate into the 50s this afternoon.

Those numbers will rise tonight and Saturday as the storm approaches from the west. This front then slams in here later Saturday with a line of showers and strong storms:

Winds are going to be cranking and can reach 50mph with gusts Friday night and Saturday.

In addition to the high winds, a few of the storms may even go severe. Here’s the latest from the Storm Prediction Center:

Temps hit the 60s in ahead of the front, then crash 20-30 degrees behind it. That may lead to some wet snows mixing in with the rain by Saturday night. The NAM keeps showing this:

The simulated radar from the Hi Res NAM even shows a little comma head of snow dipping into northern Kentucky:

Strong northwesterly winds then kick on for a cold Sunday. This should be able to deliver some snow flurries to central and eastern Kentucky. The far east may see some out and out snow showers:

It continues to be interesting to see the operational models going toward what the GFS Ensembles have been showing for a while now with the late weekend flake chances:

Have a fantastic Friday and take care.

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Some big changes for the weekend

Good Thursday, folks. Our weekend is just around the corner, and things are looking very interesting. We have a strong storm system ready to blast into the region, bringing everything from strong storms to the chance of some snowflakes.

Before we get to that system, we have a chilly wind blowing out there Thursday. Skies will feature a mix of clouds and sun, with highs in the 40s.

The arrival of our weekend storm has been pushed back a few hours, with the bulk of the action coming Saturday. Watch how this system really cranks up across the Great Lakes:

We might see a low-topped line of strong thunderstorms racing across the region Saturday. With our without the storms, we will have a high-wind threat. Gusts of 40 mph to 50 mph will be possible:

This storm is just getting to within the range of the NAM, and the model is showing a little wraparound mix of rain and snow developing late Saturday evening:

The GFS ensembles keep spitting out the chance of a few snowflakes in the east for Sunday:

Thanksgiving week is likely to throw additional cold shots our way, with the next shot arriving by the busy travel day Wednesday:

That’s a cold look, with more cold likely showing up later Thanksgiving weekend. Could we get some snowflakes to go along with that? That’s at least a possibility.

Have a great Thursday and take care.

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Our busy pattern gets started

Good Wednesday, folks. The active weather pattern we’ve been touting, gets started with a cold front moving in. This looks to be the appetizer to a much bigger storm system rolling into town this weekend.

As our cold front moves closer Wednesday, rain will arrive from west to east. The greatest chance of rain comes in the afternoon and evening, along with very gusty winds. Temps could spike into the 50s ahead of the rain, then drop into the 40s as the drops kick in:

Thursday finds us fighting lots of clouds with a chilly wind blowing. Temps could struggle into the low and middle 40s in many areas.

That brings us to our weekend storm system.

This will be a very strong storm system, but it’s not looking like the powerhouse it was a few days ago. Winds are going to be the main problem around here, with gusts of 40 mph or greater from Friday evening through Saturday morning. That’s when the front slams in with showers and some low-topped thunderstorms:

That strong northwesterly wind really kicks in for a very cold Sunday. Depending on the exact direction of that wind, a few flurries will be possible, especially in the east:

Wind chills with this could drop into the teens at times late Sunday and Monday morning.

Another cold shot then shows up by Wednesday into Thanksgiving Day of next week. We are about a week away from that cold shot, so the delivery method of that cold will change. The latest GFS shows some cold turkey:

This particular model run has some frigid wind chills to start the big holiday:

I mentioned earlier how the European model seems to be having trouble in how it’s handling the pattern over the next week or so. It was a model that was the first to show the upcoming cold shots, then all the others came aboard. Now, the Euro has really scaled things back.  Normally, I side with the European, but drastic changes in a model family tend to make me a little skittish. Plus, the troughs ejecting from the southwest would seemingly play into the bias of the model.

To illustrate the point, compare and contrast the snowflake potential from the ensembles over the next 2 weeks:

GFS

European

Have a great day and take care.

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Things are about to get very busy

Good Tuesday, folks. We have a seasonally chilly air mass in place across the region, but it’s the weekend taking center stage. This is when a potent storm system moves our way with some wild weather.

Let’s start with Tuesday.

Highs will be in the upper 40s to low 50s in many areas, with a mix of sun and clouds.

Those clouds will quickly thickenWednesday as rain returns during the afternoon and evening. Those showers should be able to put down a quarter of an inch in some areas:

Temps behind this front will take a bit of a dip again Thursday. Highs from the NAM show this well:

From there, it’s all eyes on the big weekend storm system. The GFS now seems to have a very good handle on the evolution of this bad boy:

That’s trending more toward the Canadian model in terms of intensity and the winds behind it.

Behind that weekend storm system, northwesterly winds might try to produce a few snowflakes around here into early next week. The exact wind direction will come into play on this, but it’s something to watch for. The GFS ensembles show this potential:

 

The GFS then shows our next plunge of cold coming Tuesday night and Wednesday next week:

The GFS ensembles have been very consistent on the weekend cold leading us into a very cold Thanksgiving week. Check out the temperature anomalies through the holiday weekend:

The same model run does show an increase in the flake potential during the same time:

Make it a terrific Tuesday and take care.

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A busy pattern before Thanksgiving

Good Monday to one and all. We have a very busy pattern taking shape this week, and that’s likely to roll into Thanksgiving week. This setup take on more of a winter look before the big day arrives.

Lots of clouds will be with us Monday with highs on the seasonal side. That seasonal brand of chill carries us through the middle of the week, when another shower-maker arrives. The greatest chance of rain is on Wednesday.

All eyes continue to be on a potent storm system rolling our way for Friday and early Saturday.

This one has the looks of a big-time wind maker across our region, and it might even throw some strong storms our way:

A big temp spike ahead of that front will be followed by a big temp drop behind it. The real cold lags just behind the front and arrives Saturday night and Sunday:

If a true northwesterly wind develops Sunday or Sunday night, then some snowflakes will be possible. Some of the recent models have been showing this possibility:

That might be a huge lake-effect outbreak following this storm.

The various operational models will have the usual wild swings on how the pattern looks. You will see big changes from run to run, because that’s what operational models do from this far out. The ensembles are made up of dozens of individual runs, spitting out the average from each. Granted, the data is smoothed out, but it’s a good indication of where the pattern goes.

The GFS ensembles show a healthy cold shot late this weekend, with cold digging in for Thanksgiving week:

Those same “smoothed-out” ensembles are also showing snowflake chances late this weekend through Thanksgiving weekend:

Even individual runs of the operational members show the wintry potential from time to time. The GFS shows this for Thanksgiving:

The Canadian model also is showing some wintry potential in the lead-up to Thanksgiving:

Make it a great Monday and take care.

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A very active week ahead

Good Sunday to one and all. We are wrapping up a chilly weekend with showers rolling across the bluegrass state. These showers are kicking off a very active pattern that threatens to get a little bumpy by the end of the week ahead.

In the short term, we are dealing with lots of clouds out there today with temps in the upper 40s to near 50. A few showers will develop this afternoon and evening, but rain totals aren’t very impressive. Track away:

The next front zips in here Tuesday night and Wednesday with gusty winds and much better coverage of the rains:

Temps run slightly colder than normal behind the front:

The bumpy part of the weather program comes on Friday as a powerful storm system works into the Ohio Valley from the west. This storm is forecast to continue strengthening as it moves in, taking on a negative tilt. Systems like that can produce high winds and even severe thunderstorms, followed by a big temp crash.

Here’s how the GFS sees it:

The European Model is similar:

That could be another Ohio Valley severe weather event and is something for us to monitor in the coming days.

As that system wraps up to our northeast, cold air surges in behind it next weekend into early Thanksgiving week:

If the northwest flow on the European Model is right, some snowflakes could dance about the sky to start Turkey week.

The European Model shows another modified arctic air mass diving in here, with the coldest anomalies setting up on top of our region:

Have a sensational Sunday and take care.

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Cold temps continue this weekend

Good Saturday to one and all. Our weekend is starting out with a blast of cold air knocking our numbers way down. While not quite as cold, the rest of the weekend will be pretty darn chilly, with some showers rolling in.

Our day is starting with temps deep into the 20s in most areas, with wind chills dipping into the teens at times. Clouds roll in this afternoon, keeping temps in the 40s:

Those clouds will produce a few showers from later Sunday into early Monday. This will help keep our highs on the chilly side of things:

Sunday

Monday

Our next cold front arrives Tuesday night and Wednesday, with an increase in chilly rains:

The pattern after that continues to take on a very wintry look starting next weekend and into Thanksgiving week. This is introduced to us by a strong system late Friday into early Saturday:

From there, the European Model shows an amazing setup with massive blocking going on in all the right places for us to turn cold:

That provides a steady stream of arctic air into the region:

Enjoy your Saturday and take care.

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Frigid temps kick off the weekend

Good Friday to one and all. The lowest temps since early last March have arrived in the Bluegrass State. This kicks caps off a colder-than-normal weather week here. Now, we focus on a forecast that looks to turn even colder as we inch closer to Thanksgiving week.

This is a heck of a shot across the eastern part of the country:

Temps this morning will be in the 20s, with wind chills in the teens. Afternoon highs will be in the upper 30s in many areas, but wind chills will be much lower.

This sets the stage for a very cold night, with lows in the low and middle 20s and wind chills in the teens. Clouds will increase Saturday, with highs ranging from the mid- to upper 40s.

Clouds roll in Saturday as a system works toward us by Sunday. That will bring chilly showers across the state through early Monday:

For many places, highs this weekend are only in the 40s.

That system is zipping through here a little faster than I thought because another system quickly takes its place by late Tuesday and Wednesday:

For a while now, I’ve been pointing toward the lead-up to Thanksgiving as a period to watch for winter weather potentially showing up. The ensembles have been on this for the past week or so, and now we find the operational models joining the mix.

The European model started the trend Thursday night and keeps showing it:

The GFS looks like the European model for next weekend, with a deep trough digging in here:

Look what it follows that with for Thanksgiving week:

Watch the cold shots take aim at us:

Again, we are seeing the GFS now looking like what the ensembles have been suggesting for the past several days.

Have a great Friday and take care.

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A frigid Friday ahead

Good Thursday, everyone. Our seasonal chill is about to turn downright cold as we roll into Friday. Temps look nothing short of frigid, especially when we factor in the winds. Those wind-chill numbers will be way, way down.

Thursday’s a nice weather day across the commonwealth. Highs are generally 50 to 55, with gusty winds ahead of our cold front. This is a dry front, but the focus is all on the cold air. Look at how much real estate gets in on the cold stuff over the next few days:

That brings 20s in here by Friday morning, with afternoon highs in the upper 30s and low 40s. Those highs are impressive considering we will have sunny skies for the most part. Temps drop into the 20s Friday evening, with readings in the low 20s waiting on some of us by Saturday morning.

Winds are going to be gusty during this time, giving us some heart of winter wind chills. Here’s the NAM:

The Canadian model numbers are even colder:

Highs for Saturday reach the middle upper 40s and low 50s with an increase in clouds. Those clouds are ahead of another cold front sweeping in Sunday. This will bring chilly rain to the region:

The long-range European ensembles continue to trend toward many of the analogs I’ve been throwing out at you since summer. The cold look from Alaska and western Canada makes it way into the eastern half of the country for Thanksgiving week:

The cold shots keep coming on the model, with the focus of the cold settling more into the United States as we head into December:

Given that’s a smoothed-out average from a month away, it’s a healthy cold signal showing up on the model.

The same model run isn’t shy with snow chances through the middle of December:

Of course, that’s just a model set to be used as guidance, But it’s usually the best of the best for general trends. That’s the only reason to look at seasonal models: trends.

Have a great Thursday and take care.

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Tracking a late-week cold shot

Good Wednesday, folks. We continue to see our thermometers running on the chilly side of things, but later this week might turn downright cold. That’s from the first of two systems likely to affect our weekend weather.

Before we get to them, we are still fighting some clouds and isolated showers out there now. Highs Wednesday will generally range from the mid 40s to near 50 for many areas. The most likely chance of showers is across the south and southeast and comes early in the day:

Thursday is a windy day, with highs in the 50- to 55-degree range. The gusty winds are ahead of a moisture-starved cold front arriving Thursday night. That front then introduces colder air for Friday.

Check out the numbers from the NAM:

That’s a very cold look, with wind chills making it feel even colder. High school football playoff games will be frigid, with readings in the upper 20s to near 30.

Lows by Saturday morning will probably drop into the low 20s in some of our traditional cold spots. Afternoon highs are near 50, with gusty winds and an increase in clouds. Those clouds are ahead of a cold rainmaker for Sunday:

As we look toward the days leading up to Thanksgiving, we find a pattern trying to load up with cold shots from western Canada and Alaska. This is where some really cold air is currently building up, and the GFS ensembles want to drain some of that into the states:

Maybe a cold turkey this year? Hmmm.

Have a great day and take care.

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