Our cool pattern continues

Good Tuesday, everyone. It’s another much cooler than normal day across the bluegrass state, and it looks like that setup continues through the rest of the week. If you’re looking for some warmer light at the end of the tunnel, I have some good news coming by Derby weekend.

Our Tuesday is starting with a kiss of frost and temps in the 30s for many areas. Afternoon sunshine will allow for temps to climb back into the low and middle 60s.

Clouds will increase tonight and those clouds will spit out some showers into southern and eastern Kentucky on Wednesday. That comes from a strong southern storm system:

Euro

That system will work up the east coast on Thursday as a strong upper level system dives into our region. That combination will then produce showers across the region on Thursday…

Euro 2

Temps may have a hard time cracking the 60 degree mark.

Kentucky Oaks Day on Friday looks much much better with highs reaching the mid and upper 60s:

Euro 3

Kentucky Derby Day looks even better with sunshine and the 70s returning:

Euro 4We have a shot at cracking 80 on Sunday and Monday with a slight chance of thunderstorms moving back in.

Have a great day and take care.

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April goes out on a chilly note

Good Monday, folks. We’re getting closer and closer to saying goodbye to one of the wettest months on record for Lexington. April has been very soggy, and we probably have a few more drops to go through before we close the door on the month. The bigger story for the remaining days of the month will be the chilly air.

We’ve been colder than normal for the past week, and that looks to continue through this week. Even with sunshine out there Monday, highs will be only in the upper 50s and low 60s for most areas.

Patchy frost is possible Monday morning and again Tuesday. Clouds will begin to increase Tuesday as a southern storm develops. That might throw some rain our way Wednesday and Thursday:

GFS

Dry air will move in behind that for Kentucky Oaks Day on Friday. Highs look to run in the 60s with sunny skies.

Saturday, Kentucky Derby day, continues to look good, with plenty of sunshine and highs hitting the 70s:

GFS Temps 2

That looks to be the beginning of a pretty warm pattern for the first full week of May. The overall pattern favors warmth for much of the country:

GFS Temps 4

Make it a magnificent Monday and take care.

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The threat of frost returns

Good Sunday, folks. We’re closing the weekend out on an improving weather note as drier air works in. This air will continue to run on the colder side of normal, and that sets the stage for the potential for more frost. Frosty mornings are likely for Monday and Tuesday.

In the short-term, early day showers will push away with some sunshine returning during the afternoon. Highs will reach only the upper 50s to low 60s on a day that normally gives us a high of about 70.

Lows for Monday and Tuesday will put green thumbs back on high alert as readings approach the freezing mark.

GFS Temps 3

Highs both days will be back in the upper 50s to low 60s.

Scattered showers will be possible Wednesday and Thursday as a big storm slowly works from the deep south into the northeast. That will keep our temps running below normal.

Kentucky Derby weekend is looking better, with highs making a run into the 70s with mainly dry weather.

Make it a sensational Sunday and take care.

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Tracking the severe storms threat

Good Saturday, everyone. It’s shaping up to be a busy weather day across Kentucky as rounds of showers and thunderstorms roll through. Some of these storms could become strong or severe as the day wears on.

Here’s a breakdown:

– General run of the mill showers and storms will be around for the first half of the day as a warm front slides through the state.

– This front will only get so far to the north before slowing down as low pressure sweeps in from the west. Areas along and south of that front and track of the low will have the best threat for severe storms.

– Damaging winds, large hail and a few tornadoes will be possible. That’s especially true for areas that break out into some afternoon sunshine and see thermometers climb into the high 60s and 70s.

– A 30 degree or greater temperature gradient is likely to be noted across the state today.

Your severe weather tracking tools:

Today’s risk area

Latest Day 1 convective outlook

Current watches

Current Watches

Possible watch areas Current MDs

 

 

 

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Rounds of storms on the way

Good Friday, folks. We’re starting out the day with near-record lows and frosty conditions across most of Central and Eastern Kentucky. This threat is now behind us, and it’s time to focus on the next threat: severe weather.

Rounds of showers and storms will roll across Kentucky Friday night and Saturday. These boomers could pack quite the punch. Here’s a look at the potential:

Special1The action gets started later Friday evening as the first round of showers and storms works in from the west. Here’s regional radar:

Showers and storms will be around early Saturday as a warm front lifts into the region. That will put parts of the region into the warm sector of a storm system. This will increase the instability, which leads to an increased chance of strong or severe storms.

The future radar from the NAM shows some big-time storms rolling across the region Saturday afternoon and evening:

NAM 4We will have to keep a close eye on the severe storms potential with those storm clusters.

Conditions will improve later Sunday as drier and cooler air sweeps back in from the northwest.

Have a great day and take care.

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Storms return for the weekend

Good Thursday to one and all. We have some very chilly air in place across the Bluegrass State, and that’s leading to some frosty mornings. We’ve set you up for this potential for the past week, so it’s time to focus on the weekend storm threat.

Showers and storms look to increase Friday night and Saturday. Heavy rainfall appears to be a pretty likely bet, but the wild card will be the potential for strong or severe storms to occur.

The models are disagreeing a bit on the track of the low, and that will make all the difference in the world. The farther north this low tracks, the more likely our chances of seeing some strong storms.

The simulated radar from the NAM shows this model to be the farthest north with the setup:

NAM 2The European Model is a little farther south with the track of the storm:

EuroBoth of those solutions would bring rounds of showers and storms through here from Friday night through Saturday night. They just differ on the potential for some big boomers. It’s a setup for us to watch for in the coming days.

The temperature gradient with this system could be very dramatic, with a 40-degree difference from north to south across our region.

Better weather comes back later Sunday.

Enjoy the day and take care.

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Tracking the frost threat

Good Wednesday to one and all. We have a cold front working across the state today and this is touching off scattered showers and storms. The big news will be the frost potential coming in behind that for the next few mornings.

Let’s start with what we have out there today. Fast-moving showers and a few storms will race across central and eastern Kentucky early today. Some small hail is possible with a few of these. Winds will be gusty and could top out around 30mph at times. That will make our mid and upper 50s feel even chillier.

Low temps by Thursday and Friday will drop very close to the freezing mark and that will set the stage for some frost. A few pockets may drop into the upper 20s with a light freeze possible.

Highs Thursday will be back in the 50s with some sunshine. Low 60s will be possible Friday as clouds increase.

Those clouds area ahead of another storm system that will bring the threat for heavy rain back into the region on Saturday.

EuroThat’s a storm that may have one heck of a temperature gradient with it. Check out the afternoon high temps on Saturday from the European Model:

Euro 2That’s a crazy looking map and goes to show just how potent this system is.

Better moves in for Sunday, but another ugly system makes a run at us by late Monday into Tuesday.

Have a great day and take care.

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Spring takes a break

Good Tuesday, everyone. If you’re a fan of true spring temperatures, you are going to hate the pattern we’re going into. It will feature several chilly shots of air, and it’s likely to throw some nasty weather our way. Yippee!

We will have some sun out there Tuesday, but temps will run on the chilly side. Highs will reach the upper 50s and low 60s. We will also have to watch for isolated showers and storms.

A fast-moving system scoots through here Tuesday night and Wednesday, with scattered showers and thunderstorms. Check out the simulated radar from the NAM:

NAM

Small hail will be possible with any shower or storm.

Temps will continue to run much colder than normal, with highs in some areas staying in the 50s. Lows for Thursday and Friday will drop close to the freezing mark. Frost is a real possibility, and there is an outside chance of a light freeze.

Another system moves our way late Friday into Saturday, with a cold rain likely:

GFSThat looks a lot like a winter setup, and that’s exactly what it is. It’s just happening late in April instead of January. If clouds and rain hang around all day Saturday, it’s possible for highs in some spots to stay in the high 40s.

Clearing skies by Sunday morning would set the stage for another frost or freeze threat:

GFS 2The winter looking pattern continues into early next week, with the models forecasting another system working to our south.

Have a great day and take care.

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A strong cold front blasts through

Good Monday, everyone. We have a powerhouse of a cold front sweeping across Central and Eastern Kentucky. Showers and storms continue to rumble ahead of the front as chilly air charges in behind it.

Locally heavy rains will accompany the action we will see Monday. Winds will gust as temps take a big tumble behind the front late in the afternoon and evening.

Chilly air moves in Tuesday, with highs getting only to about 60 degrees. A gusty wind will make it feel cooler than that.

A secondary push of cold air moves in Wednesday and it might be accompanied by scattered showers and thunderstorms. Some of these could produce small hail as they sweep through. Here’s the simulated NAM radar:

NAM 2

The air behind that could set the stage for frost and freezing conditions for later in the week. Overnight lows could drop into the upper 20s and low 30s. Beware!

Another rainmaker tries to sweep back in late Friday into Saturday. That could keep afternoon highs on the very chilly side of the thermometer:

Euro 2

Let’s get back to tracking Monday’s cold front across the state:

 

 

Enjoy your day and take care.

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Storms and heavy rain return

Good Sunday to one and all. It’s another in a long line of stormy days taking shape across central and eastern Kentucky. Rounds of boomers will be crossing our region through Monday. Each round will have the potential to create some additional high water issues for some.

Here’s a breakdown of what to expect:

– Waves of storms come at us from the south and southwest this morning into the afternoon. A few could be on the strong side, but all will contain heavy rain.

– The heavy amounts of rain could lead to some local high water issues.

– If we break out into some sunshine this afternoon, our severe weather threat will increase. High winds and hail would be the primary threats from the storms that go up.

– Additional rounds of showers and storms will then move through on Monday as a strong cold front sweeps eastward.

– Rainfall totals through Monday should average 1″-2″ for many areas. Higher amounts will be possible for those getting in on stronger storms.

– Chilly air then pushes in from Tuesday through the rest of the week. Any night that has clear skies could turn frosty.

In the short term, it’s all about heavy rain and storms. Let’s do a little Sunday storm tracking:

Today’s risk area

Latest Day 1 convective outlook

Current watches

Current Watches

Possible watch areas Current MDs

 

 

Make it a sensational Sunday and take care.

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