A cold day for holiday shoppers

Good Friday to one and all. It’s a cold day taking shape for holiday shoppers as highs again stay in the 30s. I am tracking milder air for the weekend, but wintry changes look to show back up early next week.

Before I look ahead, let me take a look back at a very wintry Thanksgiving.  My twitter feed does all the talking:

Black Friday is still a cold one with moderating temps this weekend. A few showers will be noted late Saturday into Sunday. Colder changes continue to show up on Monday as a strong cold front settles in from the north and northwest. This means a HUGE temp crash is coming to start December. We may be near 60 as the strikes midnight with a 25-30 degree temp drop coming by the afternoon.

Can you find the front on the European Model for early Monday afternoon?

Euro

Now THAT is a cold front! The cold air will continue to press to the east as the front slows down. A couple of waves of low pressure will develop along this front and roll toward the northeast. That can bring wintry weather back into the region. The European shows where it thinks wintry precipitation will fall Monday and Tuesday…

Euro 2

That will be something for us to watch closely because the temps tend to show up colder and colder the closer we get. All of this is part of a back and forth pattern I expect for the first half of December, however things are certainly looking colder than even I was thinking. The Canadian Ensembles show the return of a familiar pattern around December 10th…

Canadian

A big ridge up the west coast into Alaska with a deepening trough across the east.

Make it a great Friday and take care.

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Thanksgiving Day weather tracking

Good Thursday and Happy Thanksgiving! We have a touch of winter weather rolling across the bluegrass state today. Parts of the area will see some snow, but everyone gets in on the cold weather.

Here’s a breakdown of what to expect:

– Our day starts with light snow across parts of southern and southeastern Kentucky. Some light accumulations will be possible in these areas.

– A few flurries or light snow showers will be possible across the entire region later today and into the evening.

– Highs today will only hit the middle 30s for most areas, but gusty winds will make it feel like we’re in the upper 20s.

– Black Friday will start with high teens to low 20s and end with mid and upper 30s. Skies will be partly sunny.

– Milder air pushes in for Saturday and Sunday with showers on the increase. Highs by Sunday may approach 60 degrees for the final day of November.

– A cold front swings in with gusty showers and falling temps on Monday. Readings may start near 50 and drop into the upper 30s by early evening. A touch of wintry weather is possible Monday night.

Let’s get back to the weather we have out there today. I have you all set for your Thanksgiving Day weather tracking needs:

Current temperatures

Hamburg Area from WKYT Studio
Lexington

I-75 @ Winchester Road Lexington

I-75 @ Winchester Road

I-75 @ Clays Ferry Bridge South Between Lexington and Richmond

US 60 @ US 127 Frankfort

US60 @ US127

US 127 @ Frankfort Frankfort

US127 @ Frankfort KY

US 60 @ US 460
Frankfort
US60 @ US460

I-75 MP 127
Georgetown
I75 NB @ MP 127

I-64 MP 97
Winchester
I-64 WB @ MP 97

I-71/I-75 at Buttermilk Pike Near Covington

I-71/I-75 @ Buttermilk Pike

I-71/I-75 at Mt. Zion Rd.
Near Covington
I-71/I-75 @ Mt. Zion Rd

I-64 @ 3rd St. Exit Louisville

I-64 @ 3rd St. Exit

Downtown Louisville @ 2nd & Broadway Louisville

Downtown Louisville @ 2nd & Broadway

I-264 @ Freedom Way
Near Louisville International Airport
I-264 @ Freedom Way

I-65 @ 234 Near Bowling Green

I-65 @ 234

I-24 MP 4 @ US 60 Paducah

I-24 @ US 60 MP 4

I-24 MP 7 @ US 62 Paducah

I-24 MP 7 @ US62

Happy Thanksgiving and take care.

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Tracking some winter weather for travelers

Good Wednesday, everyone. The busiest travel day of the year is going to be a mess across the eastern part of the country. A big winter storm is rolling up the East Coast, with a lot of snow for millions.

Some of that snow will brush far eastern and southeastern Kentucky early Wednesday. The precipitation will start as rain before switching to snow. Some slushy accumulation will be possible, but a lot of the snow will melt.

The greatest chance for accumulating snow will be for counties that border Virginia. That’s where a winter weather advisory is in effect until noon Wednesday:

AdvisoryHere are your radars to track our brush with this winter storm:

The rest of the area will see a mix of sun and clouds, with highs in the low 40s.

Another winter weather maker zips in from the northwest overnight and Thanksgiving morning. That will bring a mix of rain and snow that switches over to light snow as temps drop below freezing. Snow showers and flurries would then be possible on  Thanksgiving day, with highs in the 30s.

The best area for some light accumulation would be along and south of Interstate 64. The wet ground might prevent much from sticking, but snowflakes flying on Thanksgiving isn’t something we normally see around here.

Black Friday shoppers will find temps near 20 early in the morning and near 40 during the afternoon. Skies will be partly sunny.

The rest of the weekend will find temps and rain chances on the increase.

Happy travels and take care.

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Thanksgiving travel forecast

Good Tuesday to one and all. The busiest travel period of the entire year is upon us, and it looks as if there will be some major travel problems across the country. A big winter storm will slam the East Coast and could affect parts of Eastern Kentucky. There’s another light snow maker lurking for Wednesday night.

Tuesday is the nicest day of the week, with partly sunny skies and highs in the low and mid-40s.

A storm system develops in the Gulf of Mexico Tuesday night and heads toward the outer banks of North Carolina on Wednesday. That will bring a swath of snow to far southeastern parts of the Bluegrass State. The NAM shows our Virginia border counties getting accumulations:

NAM 2

Check out how much snow falls to our east and northeast through Thanksgiving morning:

NAMThat will cause massive delays and cancellations for some of the major airports in the east. The trickle down effect will be felt at other airports across the country.

You will also notice a smaller band of snow dropping into Kentucky from the northwest on that snow map. That comes Wednesday night and Thanksgiving morning, and it might put down some light accumulations.

The most likely areas to receive some snow from that might be along and south of Interstate 64.

Leftover flurries and highs in the 30s should rule our Thanksgiving Day weather.

Friday will feature partly sunny skies with lows near 20, and highs approaching 40.

Have a great day and take care.

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High winds start Thanksgiving week

Good Monday, everyone. Thanksgiving week is upon us, and it looks as if the weather is going to play a greater role than normal for holiday travel. We have a big blast of wind working across the state Monday, and this may cause a few problems.

Today’s gusts might spike to 40 mph to 50 mph at times as a strong cold front surges in. That could be enough to cause a few power hits across the region. Showers will continue as temps tumble behind the front.

Track it all:

Sustained winds

Current temperatures

Tuesday’s weather looks windy and much colder, with highs from the upper 30s to the low 40s.

I continue to be focused on the Wednesday through Thanksgiving period for the potential for winter weather. We continue to see the models cranking up a big East Coast winter storm. Each run edges this bad boy a little farther west, and we might see some more of that trend over the next few days.

The European Model shows the snow shield with this storm crossing eastern Kentucky:

Euro

That’s a monster storm rolling up the East Coast and will cause travel nightmares on the busiest travel day of the year. You can also see the second system diving at us from the northwest with some light snow.

The GFS is also showing some light snow around here by Wednesday evening into Thanksgiving morning. We even have the potential to put down a light accumulation:

GFS Snow

A few flurries would carry us into Thanksgiving Day, with highs mainly in the 30s. Improving weather moves in for Friday.

Have a great Monday and take care.

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Milder air brings the rain

Good Saturday to one and all. Old Man Winter is cutting us a bit of a break this weekend with some milder temps pushing in. This milder air will also bring an increase in rain and gusty winds before the weekend is over. That won’t last long as much colder air returns for Thanksgiving week.

A couple of showers will try to pop early today, but we should see a lot of dry weather. Highs today soar well into the mid and upper 50s as winds pick up from the southwest.

Current temperatures

A strong area of low pressure develops to our west tonight and Sunday. That will lift northward into the western Great Lakes by Sunday night. That’s a path that will bring a big increase in wind and heavy rain:

NAMMuch colder air will slowly filter in behind that system on Monday.

I’m also keeping watch on the upcoming busy Thanksgiving travel period. A lot is going on in the atmosphere and the models are responding in the way I said they would… with trouble. They are having a difficult time in determining which system to develop and which system blows up.

The GFS Ensembles show the possibility of a more phased system by late Wednesday and Thanksgiving. Check out how energy dives in from Canada and merges with a disturbance moving in from the south…

Euro

Some kind of system should come out of all that, but the details are still murky to say the least. Most models do agree that some snow will be possible on Thanksgiving…

GFS 2

As always, we shall see.

Make it a great day and take care.

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The winter forecast

Old Man Winter has invaded the Bluegrass State much earlier than normal this year. We’ve had record snows and cold across Kentucky in recent weeks. Can we expect more of the same as we roll into the actual winter season? Let’s find out with the winter forecast.

We seem to be in a period of colder-than-normal winters across our part of the world, and I don’t see that changing this winter. Many of the factors I look at on a global and local scale argue for a cold and snowy winter across Kentucky.

LOCAL WEATHER

The current pattern we’re in is very similar to that of 1976. The winter of 1976-77 was legendary, with record-breaking cold and snow that covered the ground for many days. It’s important to remember that no two winters are the same, but similar patterns often feature reasonably similar results.

2000 is another fall that seems to have been similar to the one we are in now.

GLOBAL CONNECTIONS

The first factor I look at is the state of the Pacific Ocean. The waters near the equator are beginning to warm, and we are moving into a weak to moderate El Niño.

WinterWeak El Niños tend to feature lower-than-normal temperatures across the eastern half of the country. They also can supply energy for an active southern jet stream. That active jet is already showing itself this fall, with big storms working in from the Deep South.

Another big factor continues to be the abnormally warm water off the West Coast and in the Gulf of Alaska. That warmer-than-normal water has been there since last winter, and that was one of the main drivers of the pattern last year.

That warm water helps promote a blocking high across western Canada and in Alaska.

Winter 2That forces the jet stream to then take a big dip across the eastern half of the country, with cold air flooding in from the north.

Winter 3One of the other factors is the huge buildup of fall snow cover across the Northern Hemisphere. Many studies suggest that a rapid and substantial buildup of October snow across Eurasia tends to promote blocking across the North Pole. That air then gets displaced and can find its way into the United States. We saw that several times last winter and have seen it already this November.

 THE FORECAST

What does all that mean for our weather in Kentucky? Here’s a look at what I expect:

Winter 5As you can see, I expect January to have the coldest departures from normal. December is likely to feature a lot of back-and-forth with temperatures, and it should have some substantial cold shots to skew us below normal. February might start cold, but the harsh winter breaks around mid-month.

Temperatures are much easier to forecast than snowfall, but with an active southern jet stream colliding with a supply of cold coming in from the north, things can get busy. The call is for above-normal snowfall across the region. Here are some numbers:

Winter 6Last winter I made a bold prediction that Lexington would set a record low for the first time since February 1996. We did just that. What’s the bold prediction for this winter? This is the winter we finally get the “big one.” We haven’t had a widespread double digit snowstorm since the infamous “dusting” of February 1998. The pattern for this winter suggests that streak comes to a snowy end.

Happy winter and take care.

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Big temperature changes ahead

Good Thursday, everyone. We continue to be in the deep freeze across Central and Eastern Kentucky. Low temperatures have made history in recent days, but it’s more of a wild ride in front of us. Cold … mild … then cold again.

Highs Thursday will range from the upper 20s in the north to the mid-30s across the south. Gusty winds will make it feel even colder as a few snow flurries dance about our sky.

Track whatever is showing up out there:

Current temperatures

Milder air pushes in for the weekend and might bring a touch of sleet by Friday night. Showers set in for Saturday as temps slowly rise. Heavy rain and wind look to become common for Sunday:

EuroSome rumbles of thunder will be possible as this storm wraps up and passes by to our west. This thing will crank up by Sunday night and Monday. Check this thing out:

Euro 2

That’s a lot of wind and falling temps on Monday. Much colder air swings back in for Thanksgiving week. The pattern is going to try to throw a couple of winter systems our way before the holiday period is finished. We will have to fine-tune those as we get closer.

If you’re a fan of winter, you will want to check back Thursday evening. That’s when I release my winter forecast.

Have a great day and take care.

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Check out this record

Good evening, everyone. Lexington hit 11 degrees Wednesday morning, setting a record low for the day. It doesn’t stop there:

recordYep, that 11 degree mark is the coldest we’ve ever been this early in the season. Records for Lexington go all the way back to the late 1800s.

Take care.

 

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Another arctic front arrives

Good Wednesday to one and all. Record cold continues to grip the Bluegrass State. We had a record low and a low high on Tuesday in the coldest November day since 1976. Guess what? We’ve already set a record low for Wednesday.

That happened in the first few minutes of the day when the temperature dropped to 11 degrees. You are living through a history-making cold period here. To me, the past week of cold is more impressive than any of the brutal cold shots we had last winter.

Another arctic front arrives on the scene Wednesday night and could bring a band of snow showers and flurries through the region. The NAM says some light accumulations will be possible in some areas:

NAM 2

Highs ahead of this front will spike well into the 30s Wednesday with gusty wind. Temps behind it will drop, with highs Thursday in the upper 20s and low 30s. Lows by Friday morning will be deep into the teens again.

Friday will find some milder air trying to fight in. That could lead to a period of frozen precipitation by Friday night and Saturday morning. The GFS shows this well:

GFSThat milder air means highs in the upper 40s to low 50s on Saturday with some showers. The heaviest rain comes our way by Sunday, as low pressure moves across the region from the south:

EuroHeavy rain and gusty winds will be likely on Sunday, with highs trying to spike close to 60 degrees.

Don’t get spoiled by that, because more cold air moves back in later Monday and sticks around through Thanksgiving week.

Have a great day and take care.

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