Another stormy week ahead

Good Sunday, folks. We are putting the wraps on a typical hot and humid July weekend in the bluegrass state. Upper 80s to low 90s have been common of late, but this is something we see MANY days every summer.

Temps out there today will be back into the upper 80s and low 90s. Humidity levels will make it feel hotter, and we could see scattered showers and storms going up.

Showers and storms increase as we roll into Monday and Tuesday. A few of the storms can be strong with heavy rainfall a possibility.

Showers and storms will increase as the week wears on. This action could REALLY ramp up as we inch closer to next weekend as a storm system develops across the Ohio Valley. Here’s the GFS:

GFS

The Canadian Model is very similar:

Canadian

Temperatures will come down during this time.

Looking forward to the fall and winter, yet?

This is the time of year I start to focus on some of the large scale signals forecast to show up for the fall and winter. We are coming off a super El Nino and many of the seasonal models have been forecasting a La Nina to develop this year. So far, the La Nina is REALLY struggling to get started, and those same seasonal models are now backing off on it.

The latest JAMSTEC seasonal model shows a neutral signal to, perhaps, weak La Nina forming this winter. It does so in the middle of a very warm Pacific. Here’s the December-February look at ocean temps:

Japan Model

Two things I’m watching. The potential for a low end La Nina, and a continuation of the very warm water off the west coast and into the Gulf Of Alaska. This +PDO signal has been one there for the majority of the past 3 winters, and is showing up very well for the winter ahead. As you know, I have maintained that signal has been the driving force for our past three wild winters around here. Last year’s super Nino muted the signal to a point, but it still produced another historic snowstorm with several other good snows.

Can we make it 4 in a row with memorable winter weather? The same run from the JAMSTEC shows colder than normal weather for much of the country from December-February:

Japan Model 2

While all of this is obviously VERY early in the ballgame, the forecast signals in the Pacific Ocean certainly argue for another fun winter.

Have a great day and take care.

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Storms start to take control

Good Saturday, and welcome to the weekend. A typical brand of July “heat” has been with us for the past week or so. Thunderstorms have helped temper the temperatures, and those storms will really ramp up in the week ahead.

Today’s weather should be very similar to what we had on Friday. High temps should range from the upper 80s to low 90s with humidity levels making it feel much hotter than that. Scattered storms may also go up and could pack a heavy rain punch.

Track away:

Sunday’s weather will look and feel a lot like what we have out there today.

Monday and Tuesday will find storm chances on the increase:

GFS

From there, additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms ramp up into the middle and end of the week:

Euro

What about next weekend? How about some more storms:

GFS 2

Have a great Saturday and take care.

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Steamy temps unleash a stormy pattern

Good Friday, folks. We are ending the week on a very steamy note, with plenty of heat and humidity across the region. This will aid in the development of scattered storms out there and might kick off another stormy period over the next few weeks.

Highs Friday reach 90 to 95 in most areas, with a  heat index pushing 100. There will be scattered storms in the afternoon and evening. A few of those could be strong, with some heavy rain. Here’s what you need to track the day:

A weak front settles into the Ohio Valley this weekend, and touches off more likely storm chances:

GFS

With so much juice available, these storms can be strong and put down a lot of rain in a short time.

Additional storms will be floating around early next week:

GFS 2

Look what rolls in later in the week:

Euro

The models are back into showing a familiar look over the next few weeks: stormy. Check out a snapshot of the GFS rainfall numbers:

GFS Rain

Have a great day and take care.

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Scattered storms fight the heat

Good Thursday, everyone. Steamy temperatures continue to settle into Central and Eastern Kentucky. The storms are meeting with some resistance, though. Scattered showers and storms will continue to battle it out with the heat in the coming days.

Highs Thursday will reach the upper 80s to low 90s in most areas; however, showers and storms will get the final say in that. Any storm can put down some heavy rain before moving along on its merry way.

Your weather trackers:

Friday is an interesting day. If we stay mostly sunny, highs could reach 90 to 95 in many areas, with a heat index pushing 100. That’s a big if, though. Scattered storms might occur in the afternoon and evening.

The weekend looks toasty, with an increase in showers and storms:

GFS

This setup should carry us into early next week as temps drop slightly:

GFS 2

Have a great day and take care.

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Typical July steam settles in

Good Wednesday to one and all. We have a lot of steamy conditions moving into the region for the next several days. This steam will be accompanied by an increasing threat of showers and thunderstorms.

Wednesday will find highs close to 90, with humidity making it feel even hotter. Watch the northwestern sky for the potential for a shower or storm diving in:

The next few days are going to be hot ones, but there are many factors arguing against anything but a typical brand of July heat. The ground is wet, the grass is green, and we have lush vegetation. There’s the threat of storms diving in from the northwest, and even if they don’t, some debris clouds might filter in.

The west is going to be hottest, by far. Central and eastern parts of the state have a better chance of being impacted by some storms coming from the northwest:

Canadian

The heat index is going to be way up there, because this is a very tropical air mass. This is also the same heat ridge we started talking about more than a week ago. But I am seeing some limiting factors potentially showing up.

The steamy air this weekend should produce some scattered showers and storms. That action looks to really increase early next week as a strong system develops across the region. The European model is all over it:

Euro

The middle and end of next week finds the same model spitting out more showers and thunderstorms, with another system diving into the Plains States.

Have a great day and take care.

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Steamy air and more storms on the way

Good Tuesday to one and all. We have a weak cold front moving into the region, and this front is likely to produce a few more storms. The big news comes from the steam department, as temps get ready to take off. The other big news comes from the broken record department, as more storms should be around.

Tuesday’s boomers might contain some very heavy rain and a lot of lightning. This could be enough to cause some local high-water problems. Track all the action:

Wednesday will be a little more comfortable, with the smallest threat of a shower or storm.

Steamy temps get set to surge in Thursday but could be muted some by scattered storms. As a matter of fact, a few rounds of storms will be possible into Friday:

Canadian

The storm threat remains into the weekend, but it might really kick into high gear early next week. That’s when the European model has a healthy storm system developing:

Euro

Have a great day and take care.

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Tracking the strong storms potential

Good Monday, everyone. Rounds of showers and thunderstorms will drop into the region from the northwest. A few of these storms could be on the strong side through early Tuesday. Bottom line: It’s more of the same.

High winds and some hail will be the primary severe weather threat from the storms Monday. We will also have to be watchful for some of the storms to produce torrential rain and a lot of lightning. The heavy rain can cause some local high-water problems. I’ll have your tracking tools in a bit.

Scattered storms carry us into the middle of the week as hotter times try to build in. The steam is really on later in the week, but thunderstorm clusters might become a problem by the weekend. We often see some active weather on the leading edge of the heat, and the models are hinting at that this weekend:

GFS

That stormy setup tries to hang tough into early next week:

Euro 2

I know every update I send out sounds like a broken record, but our weather pattern is pretty much playing the same tune over and over. This is the fourth straight summer that we have dealt with much stormier weather than usual.

Here are your tracking tools for the day:


Latest Day 1 convective outlook

Current watches
Current Watches

Possible watch areas
Current MDs

Have a wonderful Monday and take care.

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Storms to start the new week

Good Sunday to one and all. Showers and thunderstorms have dominated the weather picture across the region this summer. That kinda goes without saying. So, it should come as no surprise that I have more storms in the forecast for the coming week.

There is the chance for an isolated shower or storm going up out there late today into the evening, but most areas should stay dry.

This will lead is into a setup that can feature strong to locally severe storms Monday and Tuesday.

The NAM is cranking out a few rounds of boomers across central and eastern parts of the state. It shows one diving in here during the daylight hours Monday…

NAM

That sets the stage for a potentially stronger cluster of storms to move in from the northwest at some point Monday night into early Tuesday…

NAM 2

In addition to the potential for strong to severe storms, the flash flood threat is going to increase. Given how much flooding our region has experienced over the past month, it won’t take much to create more issues.

Heat and humidity really tries to build in later this week, but, once again, storms may end up playing the part of spoiler…

Canadian

Have a great day and take care.

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Better weather for the weekend

Good Saturday to one and all. For the second weekend in a row, the forecast is looking much better compared the days leading up to it. We will see the nice conditions slowly taking control later today and lasting through Sunday.

Once past the weekend, more storms rumble into the region.

Let’s start with today and roll ahead. Temps will be in the pleasant 80s as humidity levels slowly come down. Scattered showers and thunderstorms may be noted early today, especially in the south and southeast.

Sunday will feature low 60s to start with mid and upper 80s to end. The big news comes from the sky. That’s because nothing will actually be coming from the sky. Enjoy it.

Rounds of thunderstorms get ready to five back in from the northwest late Monday into Tuesday:

Canadian

A few of those storms could be on the strong side.

Temps come back down for the middle of the week, but a steamy pattern is on the way late next week into the following weekend. The numbers should average above normal for much of the country:

GFS TEMPS 1

Even with the core of the heat staying away from us, we could see the hottest air of the year for a few days.

Enjoy your Saturday and take care.

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More storms to start the weekend

Good Friday, everyone. We have rounds of showers and thunderstorms that continue to plow across the Bluegrass State this summer. That trend carries us into the start of the weekend, before we get a small break in the action.

If you’re playing along at home, this marks the fourth straight summer of above-normal rainfall and thunderstorm action. That’s pretty incredible, but it’s the hand we’re being dealt from Mother Nature.

Friday’s storms will be scattered but can pack a punch. Heavy rainfall and pockets of high wind will be the main concerns to watch for. Your tracking tools come your way in a moment.

The cold front moving in begins to slow down later Friday night and Saturday. That might allow for some additional showers and storms Saturday, especially in the south. The NAM future radar is a little more widespread than most other models:

NAM

We should catch a nice break in the action for Sunday and early Monday, but more storms dive in from the northwest Tuesday and Wednesday:

Euro 2

Here are your Friday storm trackers:


Latest Day 1 convective outlook

Current watches
Current Watches

Possible watch areas
Current MDs

Have a great day and take care.

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