Rounds of storms continue

Good Tuesday, everyone. Rounds of showers and storms continue to push across the Bluegrass State as steamy weather rolls on. All of this will slowly give way to some much better weather by the end of the week and into the weekend.

Highs on Tuesday will hit the upper 80s to near 90 in most areas. High humidity will make it feel a little warmer. This is very typical for this time of year. Scattered storms will be around Tuesday and Wednesday.

The storms later Wednesday may increase as a cold front swings in from the northwest. Some strong storms and very heavy rains will be possible. Here’s the progression for late Wednesday and Thursday morning:

NAMHighs by Thursday will come way down and should top out in the 80- to 85-degree range, with much lower humidity.

NAM 2A similar setup will be with us for Friday. Temps may spike toward normal over the weekend as another cold front gets ready to dive in from the northwest.

That’s the beginning of what should be a very cool first half of August for much of the country. Watch the progression in five-day increments:

CFS  CFS 2

CFS 3Let’s get back to the weather we have out there Tuesday. Your daily dose of tracking tools will walk you through it all:

Latest Day 1 convective outlook

Current watches

Current Watches

Possible watch areas Current MDs

 

 

Have a great day and take care.

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Tracking scattered storms

Good Monday, folks. It’s the last work week in July, and it’s giving us some fairly typical late-summer weather. It will be hot and steamy, and we have some scattered showers and storms to track. Enjoy it; big changes start late this week and really dig in for early August.

Highs Monday will range from the mid- to upper 80s, with a scattering of showers and storms. I will have your tracking tools coming up in a bit.

Highs will be near 90 on Tuesday and Wednesday, and the humidity will make it feel even hotter. Isolated showers and storms will again be possible.

A cold front drops in Thursday, with an increased chance of some boomers. This front will knock our temps down several degrees to end the week, and that’s just the beginning. Check out the big dips in the jet stream coming as we roll into the first few days of August:

Euro 2

The first half of August is likely to be much cooler than normal as cool shots come at us from the northwest. You can see these lined up all the way into central Canada next week:

Euro 3That’s going to really get those football juices flowing a little early this year!

Before we get to that point, we have some scattered storms to track:

Latest Day 1 convective outlook

Current watches

Current Watches

Possible watch areas Current MDs

 

 

Have a great Monday and take care.

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The last week of July features changes

Good Sunday, folks. We have a rather warm day going on across Central and Eastern Kentucky. This typical summertime air will hang around through the next few days, but changes show up as we say goodbye to the month.

Highs Sunday will range from the mid- to upper 80s in much of Central and Eastern Kentucky. Isolated showers and storms will be possible early, with a slightly higher chance coming during the evening.

Scattered showers and storms will increase from the northwest later Sunday night into Monday. A few strong storms could even fire up during this time. Here’s the NAM simulated radar:

NAM

Temps are likely to be a few degrees cooler because of the scattered storms and more clouds.

Tuesday into Wednesday could see temps spike close to 90 degrees. Isolated storms Tuesday could become much more widespread late Wednesday as a cold front moves in. That will be followed by much cooler air for later in the week into early August:

Euro

That cooler trend may carry us into much of the first half of August. The CFS forecast for early in the month is showing temps averaging solidly below normal for much of the country:

CFS 2Make it a great Sunday and take care.

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Changes are on the way

Good Saturday to one and all. Our final weekend of July is off and running on a heck of a weather note. Sunny and dry conditions with near normal temps are showing up across central and eastern Kentucky. Enjoy it… Changes are showing up as we roll into next week.

High temps today will be in the middle and upper 80s for most with a mostly sunny sky continuing.

Similar temps will be noted on Sunday, but the threat for showers and storms will increase a bit.

A northwesterly flow aloft means we will have to be on guard for possible storm clusters developing and diving in here. The NAM suggests this happens Sunday night into Monday:

NAM

Locally heavy rains and some strong storms will be possible during this time. Scattered storms and steamy temps would then be around into Tuesday and Wednesday. That’s when we focus on a cold front diving in here from the northwest. This front will bring an increase in showers and storms and a decrease in temps by the end of the week.

The European Model shows the front on top of the region by Thursday and also shows a developing tropical system off the east coast:

EuroIt will be interesting to see how those two interact. Regardless, odds favor a shot of cooler than normal air to follow that mes up as we flip the calendar to August.

Have a great day and take care.

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A normal summer weekend ahead

Good Friday, folks. We’ve made it to the final weekend of July, and the weather finally looks normal for a few days. This typical summer pattern should carry us into early next week, but some big changes are showing up as we end the month and say hello to August.

Let’s start with what we have out there Friday. Highs will generally run in the mid-80s under a mostly sunny sky. There is just the smallest risk of a pop-up shower or thunderstorm.

Hamburg Area from WKYT Studio
Lexington

I-75 MP 127
Georgetown
I75 NB @ MP 127

US 60 @ US 460
Frankfort
US60 @ US460

Isolated showers and storms will be possible, with highs mainly in the normal mid- and upper 80s.

We have a shot at a high of 90 early next week, with a gradual increase in showers and thunderstorms. Don’t get too used to the typical summer heat; a big dip in the jet stream develops late in the week:

EuroMuch cooler-than-normal air might take over much of the eastern half of the country as we open the month of August. Check out the five-day temperature departures coming from the European Ensembles:

Euro 2Make it a fantastic Friday and take care.

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Rain brushes the region

Good Thursday, folks. We have a glancing blow of showers and thunderstorms working across the region. It’s working through as a wave of low pressure passes across the Tennessee Valley.

The front that gave us the nice weather Wednesday put the brakes on just to our south. That’s part of the problem we’re seeing Thursday. It’s hanging just close enough to create some showers and storms, with the greatest concentration across the south. Highs will range from the upper 70s to the low 80s.

Track away:

 

 

Hamburg Area from WKYT Studio
Lexington

I-75 MP 127
Georgetown
I75 NB @ MP 127

US 60 @ US 460
Frankfort
US60 @ US460

The weather from Friday into the weekend looks much more typical for summertime in the Bluegrass State. Highs will be in the middle and upper 80s, with isolated showers and storms possible.

The storm chances increase late Sunday and early next week as a couple of cold fronts drop in. The trough pushing those fronts through here really digs in by the middle and end of the week:

Euro 2That means temps will slowly drop to normal or below normal, with the possibility of that cooler-than-normal air digging in for August.

Make it a great day and take care.

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Slow-moving front brings some good, some bad

Good Wednesday, folks. We have a heck of a weather day going on across Central and Eastern Kentucky. Very nice weather has finally moved into the region. Unfortunately, the cold front responsible for the good stuff is slowing down. That could mean some problems by Tomorrow.

Highs Wednesday will barely hit the low 80s, with lower humidity and a partly sunny sky. There is still a small chance of a shower or two across far southern Kentucky to start the day.

Our front stalls out across Tennessee as a wave of low pressure develops along it. That will then work eastward along the state line and could bring a substantial increase in showers and storms. The greatest risk will be across the south, but rain might fall in the Interstate 64 corridor.

The NAM is farthest north with the shower and storm threat:

NAM

The GFS is a littler farther south:GFS Isolated showers and storms will be possible Friday and Saturday as humidity and temps inch up. Normal highs should be back with us.

A system dives in from the northwest late in the weekend and early next week. That might enhance our storm and heavy-rain potential:

GFS

The storm threat continues into the middle of next week as a healthy trough tries to dig in across the eastern part of the country:

Euro 2Make it a great day and take care.

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A cold front moves in

Good Tuesday to one and all. Stop me if you’ve heard this one before: More rounds of showers and thunderstorms are pushing across Kentucky. There is a bit of good news: Our temps are set to decrease in the next couple of days.

Much of the region remains under a flash flood watch Tuesday. Rounds of showers and storms will continue to put down some heavy rains across our region. Keep a close eye on creeks and streams.

Some of the storms could be on the strong side and produce damaging winds. I will have your trackers in a bit.

The cold front responsible for Tuesday’s action drops into Tennessee on Wednesday and stalls out. That should keep the threat of showers and storms going across our southern sections into Thursday. The NAM shows this well:

NAM 3Temps do come down quite a bit behind this boundary. Check out the forecast highs from the NAM for Wednesday:

NAMThrow in lower humidity, and there will be a rather pleasant feel to the air.

Humidity and storm chances will both rise going into the weekend.

Let’s get back to your regularly scheduled program of tracking storms:

Latest Day 1 convective outlook

Current watches

Current Watches

Possible watch areas Current MDs

 

 

Enjoy your Tuesday and take care.

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Flash flooding and severe weather possible

Good Monday, everyone. Here we go again! It’s another busy weather day taking shape across Central and Eastern Kentucky. Rounds of showers and thunderstorms might cause all kinds of problems, including damaging wind and flooding rain.

Storms will continue to come at us in clusters through Tuesday. There’s even the potential for one or more mesoscale convective systems to work across Kentucky. These are huge complexes of severe weather makers.

Damaging wind and large hail will be possible with any storms.

The flash-flood threat continues to be about as high as it can possibly get. Additional rainfall amounts might average 1 to 3 inches over the next couple of days. Much higher amounts will be possible on the local scale. Significant flash flooding is possible.

A few storms might linger Tuesday night and Wednesday.

Temps for the rest of the week and into the weekend should be cooler than what they have been lately.  The GFS Ensemble shows a little cooler than normal over the next five days:

GFS

In the short term, it’s all about the potential for severe storms and flash flooding. I have the blog set as your one-stop shop to track the action:

Latest Day 1 convective outlook

Current watches

Current Watches

Possible watch areas Current MDs

 

 

Have a great Monday and take care.

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The flash-flood threat is back

Good Sunday to one and all. We’re wrapping up a rather steamy and stormy weekend with … more steam and storms. Rounds of boomers will continue to blow across the region Sunday, continuing the pattern we’ve been in.

Clusters will be possible Sunday, and they could lead to flash flooding. Damaging winds will be possible in the stronger storms.

A cold front moves in Monday and slams on the brakes. That allows for waves of low pressure to develop along it:

Special 2

Strong storms and torrential rains will be possible through the first half of next week. That could lead to additional flooding in some areas.

That boundary will then try to slip to our south for the second half of the week and next weekend. If that’s the case, some nice air should move back in:

Special 3

If that front doesn’t push as far south and hangs around here even longer, nothing good could come from that scenario.

I will have another update Sunday night. Here are your tracking tools for the day:

Sunday’s risk area

Latest Day 1 convective outlook

Current watches

Current Watches

Possible watch areas Current MDs

 

 

Make it a great Sunday and take care.

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