A nice fall weekend

Good Saturday to one and all. We have a chilly, but gorgeous fall weekend across central and eastern Kentucky. This air is long overdue as summer hung tough deep into Autumn.

Temperatures today will start in the upper 30s with afternoon highs in the middle and upper 50s. Skies will feature a mix of sun and clouds with gusty winds continuing. Dress for the 40s if you’re going out to Commonwealth Stadium tonight.

Sunday is another VERY windy day as temps hit the mid and upper 60s. A few high clouds will be noted as a weak front slides in from the north. This should be a dry system, but it will drop the numbers down.

Highs Monday and Tuesday will be in the 60-65 degree range with dry weather. Lows by Tuesday will reach the upper 30s, and that could mean some patchy frost.

Our next rain maker arrives late Wednesday and carries us into Thursday:


That’s another windy system bringing us another chilly shot of air for the end of the week. Highs may be back in the 50s:


Until then, let’s enjoy a nice stretch of gorgeous, and normal, fall weather in Kentucky.

Make it a great Saturday and take care.

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Chilly changes start the weekend

Good Friday, folks. Much needed rains have fallen across the area since Thursday with many areas picking up more than an inch. Now comes the real deal fall chill taking hold of our weather to start the weekend.

Showers will be around this morning across central Kentucky, and should hang around into the afternoon in the east. Winds will be very gusty with temps in the 50s for highs:

Skies will clear tonight with temps hitting the upper 30s in many areas. Winds will remain gusty and that should keep frost from forming.

Saturday will be another windy day with highs in the 50s. Skies will stay partly sunny. If you’re heading out to Commonwealth Stadium for the Cats and the Dogs at 7:30, dress warmly. Temperatures will be in the 40s.

A little milder wind will blow on Sunday with temps in the 60s.

We should stay in the 60s for highs into the middle of next week. That’s when our next threat for rain arrives. This should come later Wednesday into Thursday ahead of another storm system.

Indications are for another shot of cool to impact the region behind this system.

Have a great day and take care.

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Tracking storms and a temp crash

Good Thursday to one and all. The day of change is finally here. No, that isn’t a political slogan, it’s the weather slogan of the day. Rain and thunderstorms, gusty winds and a big temp crash are dominating the weather picture out there.

  • Thursday’s showers and storms can put down some significant totals as they sweep eastward.
  • The most likely chance of strong storms will be across the central and eastern part of the state. Your tracking tools in a bit.
  • Winds are going to be cranking, with gusts of 30 to 40 mph possible as the colder air sweeps in from west to east.
  • Leftover showers get out of town by Friday afternoon, with some sunshine returning.
  • Winds will be very gusty and usher in the coldest air of the season, with highs in the 50s.
  • Lows in the mid- and upper 30s are a good bet for many by Saturday morning:


  • Winds are likely to remain too high for widespread frost to develop, although some patchy stuff is certainly possible.
  • Saturday is another windy and chilly day, with highs in the low 60s west and middle 50s east. All of this happens as our storm strengthens across New England.
  • This might put down snow in New England and could cause the first flakes to fly in the highest elevations of the Appalachian Mountains.

As always, I have you set to track Thursday’s big changes:

Thursday’s risk area

Latest Day 1 convective outlook

Current watches
Current Watches

Have a great day and take care.

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Here come the changes

Good Wednesday, folks. Chances of rain are going up and temperatures are going down over the next few days. This is all part of the big change we’ve been advertising for the past week or so. Here’s a breakdown of what to expect over the next few days:

  • Scattered showers and storms out there Wednesday can be on the strong side, especially in the west and north. I will have your tracking tools for those in a moment.
  • Highs will range from the upper 70s to the low 80s as winds stay very gusty.
  • Widespread rain and thunderstorms work across the region Thursday. Some of the storms could be strong and could put down very heavy rainfall.
  • Winds will be very gusty, with a big temperature crash from west to east.
  • Showers linger into the first half of Friday across the central and east. Winds stay gusty, with highs in the 50s. This means temps in the 40s for high school football games.
  • Lows by Saturday morning will be deep in the 30s:


  • Saturday’s highs will range from 60 in the far west to the low and middle 50s east. Skies stay partly sunny.

Let’s track the action we have out there Wednesday:

Wednesday’s risk area

Latest Day 1 convective outlook

Current watches
Current Watches

Make it a great day and take care.

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Big-time changes on the way

Good Tuesday, everybody. Summer temps in the heart of fall will roll on for another day or two before some big changes move in. Those numbers will get wiped out by a major cold front ushering in rain and colder air.

Highs Tuesday should hit 80 to 85 in most areas, but there is the chance of a stray shower or thunderstorm. If that happens, it could keep temps down a few degrees.

A slightly greater threat of some afternoon thunderstorms will be with us Wednesday as the cold front drops closer:


A potent storm system then moves in Thursday, with gusty winds, widespread showers and storms, and crashing temperatures:


Much colder air then moves in for Friday and Saturday:


Leftover showers are likely Friday, with a small chance of showers for Saturday. High school football games on Friday will be played with temps dropping into the 40s. The same is likely for Wildcats fans Saturday evening at Commonwealth Stadium.

Sunday’s weather looks much better, with highs in the low and middle 60s.

Have a great day and take care.

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Record highs possible before a big change

Good Monday, everyone. Temperatures out there to start the week continue to run on the toasty side for the middle of October. We could even challenge record highs in some spots. That’s how the week starts. It will end on a vastly different note.

Temperatures Monday and Tuesday will reach 80 to 85 degrees on a gusty southwesterly wind. This is about as warm as you can possibly get for this time of year.

Scattered showers and storms increase late Wednesday as a cold front nears from the northwest. This front arrives Thursday with widespread showers and storms, gusty winds and a big temperature crash:


Rainfall amounts might top 1 inch in parts of the region. Highs by Friday and Saturday look to stay in the 50s. If skies clear out Friday night, we could be talking about some frost forming.

Additional cold fronts might drop in from the northwest later next week.

The Arctic Oscillation has turned severely negative recently and is forecast to remain there for a while:


You can see how it spent much of the summer and early fall deep into positive territory. That is no longer the case, and that severely negative AO might keep going for a while. Hence, one of the reasons I’ve been looking at the potential earlier-than-normal start to winter.

While I’m on the subject, let me share some work from Dr. Judah Cohen. He has become very popular over the years for his forecasting of the Arctic oscillation and the polar vortex. He has some interesting theories about the buildup of October snow cover in Eurasia and how it might affect the winter ahead. Here are some of his latest thoughts:

Arctic oscillation and polar vortex analysis and forecasts

  • The Arctic oscillation is currently strongly negative and is predicted to remain negative over the next two weeks.  The AO is predicted to trend positive toward neutral through the end of next week and then reverse and trend further negative.
  • The current negative AO is reflective of positive pressure/geopotential height anomalies in the Arctic, especially north of Alaska and on the European side of the Arctic, and negative pressure/geopotential height anomalies across the mid-latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, especially in the North Pacific sector. The North Atlantic Oscillation is currently also negative but because the positive height anomalies in the North Atlantic side of the Arctic are closer to Scandinavia than Iceland/Greenland, the NAO is predicted to fluctuate around zero over the next two weeks.
  • With pressure/geopotential height anomalies predicted to remain positive across much of the Arctic and pressure/geopotential height anomalies predicted to remain negative across the NH mid-latitudes, the AO is likely to remain in negative territory into the foreseeable future.
  • With the AO firmly negative for the remainder of the next two weeks, this favors below normal temperatures across large portions of northern Eurasia including Europe and Siberia. However because North America will be dominated by mostly positive pressure/geopotential height anomalies, temperatures will average above normal much of next week in eastern North America.  The following week with heights predicted to build once more near Greenland lower heights and temperatures are predicted for eastern North America for week two.
  • Eurasian snow cover is above normal but has currently stalled.  However both low sea ice and a persistent negative AO are favorable for the resumption of a more accelerated advance of Siberian snow cover. High Eurasian snow cover and low Arctic sea ice in the Barents-Kara seas favor first, a strengthening Siberian high and then a weakened polar vortex in winter.
  • The polar vortex both in the stratosphere and the troposphere look to remain relatively weak for the remainder of October, if this trend continues, severe winter weather is likely for widespread portions of northern Eurasia, including Europe and East Asia, and the eastern United States.

Check out the highlighted part above. Very interesting!

Have a great day and take care.

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Big changes for the week ahead

Good Sunday to one and all. We are in the middle of a very warm stretch of October temperatures across central and eastern Kentucky. The toasty temps will be with us to start the new week, but a huge temp drop is on the way to end the week.

Today through Tuesday are about as warm as you will ever see around here for this time of year. Highs will hit the low 80s each day, with a few spots pushing 85 with enough sunshine. A record or two may fall.

Once into Wednesday, we get a strong cold front to press in from the northwest. This front will give us a shot of scattered showers and thunderstorms during the day. The system then rolls through here for the end of the week with an increased threat for gusty rains and much cooler temperatures. This is a pretty potent look:

gfsThe cold air behind this system may give us the first widespread frost of the season if we can clear the skies out.

The Canadian is much slower and wetter with that system:


Make it a great Sunday and take care.

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Big temps swings ahead

Good Saturday, everyone.  We are seeing temperatures starting to take off as much warmer air surges into the region. This could send highs toward 80 degrees in the coming days, but a drastic drop is coming for the second half of next week.

Highs Saturday will hit the mid- and upper 70s with the threat of a shower or two. Most areas should stay dry on a strong southwesterly flow:

Highs on Sunday will range from the upper 70s to around 80 with a small, small storm threat.

Highs for Monday and Tuesday will again be in the upper 70s and lower 80s ahead of a strong cold front. That front blows into town Wednesday, with an increase in showers and thunderstorms. It’s being pushed by a huge dip in the jet stream that can create quite a storm system and unleash much colder air.

The Canadian model shows this drop in the jet stream:


Watch the storm that develops:


That setup can deliver our best chance for rain since August, and might deliver our first widespread frost threat.

Have a great day and take care.

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A big temps surge ahead

Good Friday, folks. We have a big push of warmer air surging into the region over the next few days. This will cause our temps to really take off into early next week. All of that will lead into a big storm system for the end of next week.

Friday will feature a mix of sun and clouds, with highs in the upper 60s to near 70. There is a small chance of a shower across the south in the afternoon. Scattered showers will then try to ride back to the north Friday evening and early Saturday:

Highs on Saturday will be in the middle 70s for much of the region as the warm air takes hold. Highs of 75 to 80 degrees will be possible Sunday, with an isolated shower or thunderstorm possible.

The next cold front stays just to our north Sunday, allowing temperatures to really take off. Highs will flirt with 80 and should hit the low 80s early next week. Much of the eastern half of the country will be well above normal:


That air is ahead of a big system likely to crank for the middle and end of the week, and it could spawn a lot of rain and storms followed by colder air.

The European model takes it a step further and tries to drag a tropical system into the mix:


Make it a great Friday and take care.

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Cooler changes blowing in

Good Thursday to one and all. A cold front is ushering in some much cooler changes across central and eastern Kentucky. This isn’t the strongest front in the world, but it is likely signifying a bigger change in the overall pattern for the weeks ahead.

Thursday’s front brings a few showers to the region for the first part of the day. Afternoon clearing will take over as winds stay rather gusty, with highs from the low to middle 60s.

I have you set with your regular cast of weather-tracking characters:

A sneaky little shower-maker develops to our southwest and moves in late Friday and Saturday. How much rain this will produce is up in the air. The GFS has a pocket of significant rain totals during this time:


This is on the nose of some much warmer air pushing back in from Sunday into early next week. That push now looks to keep the Sunday front just to our north, but it can still throw scattered thunderstorms our way Sunday and Monday, especially across the north.

I’m still watching he potential for a much bigger system to affect our region for the middle and end of next week. Some of the models have a pretty wild look:


Have a great Thursday and take care.

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