4th of July weekend starts wet

Good Friday everyone. It’s the biggest holiday of the summer and it falls on a weekend. That means some added pressure is applied to get some nice weather into central and eastern Kentucky. While all isn’t lost… I am just the messenger! :)

Things have been awfully wet across our region of late. Lexington picked up another 1″-2″ of rain on Thursday and we have a chance to approach those totals again today. Rounds of showers and thunderstorms will continue to rumble across the region. These will be proficient rain producers that can cause local high water issues.

A Flash Flood Watch is out for much of our region through the evening hours:

In addition to the potential for high water, a few of the storms  could be on the strong side. The best chance for that looks to be in the south and east. Highs today will generally run in the middle 70s.

The 4th of July forecast for Lexington:

The Bluegrass 10,000 looks to feature wet pavement and the chance for scattered showers. Temps should be in the upper 60s to low 70s.

The parade begins at 2pm and should see temps in the upper 70s to around 80. That’s not bad at all. Take a poncho or umbrella as scattered showers and storms may develop.

Fireworks time at 10pm will continue to see the chance for scattered showers and storms with temps in the low and middle 70s.

This does not look like a washout of a 4th, but the scattered storms could cause some issues. Temps will be very, very pleasant for this time of year.

Scattered showers and storms will be around again on Sunday as temps hit the low 80s. Near normal to slightly below normal temps should be common for next week as we stay in a rather stormy pattern.

I have you all set with the rest of your Friday storm tracking tools:

Hamburg Area from WKYT Studio
Lexington

I-75 MP 127
Georgetown
I75 NB @ MP 127

US 60 @ US 460
Frankfort
US60 @ US460

 

 

Thursday’s risk area

Latest Day 1 convective outlook

Current watches

Current Watches

Possible watch areas Current MDs

Enjoy the day and take care.

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Tracking heavy rain and storms

Good Thursday to one and all. It’s another very stormy day taking shape across Central and Eastern Kentucky. The stage is set for rounds of storms to dump heavy rain across much of our region. That could lead to flash flooding.

Thunderstorm action will really increase Thursday as waves of boomers roll through. These showers and storms will be prolific rain producers and can drop a few inches in just an hour or two. That could cause some quick rising of creeks and streams.

A few strong or severe storms will be possible.

Rounds of storms will continue to push across the region Thursday night and into Friday. All told, many areas are likely to pick up 1 to 4 inches of rain during this time. The potential is for some extreme flash flooding on a local scale.

The threat of showers and storms will hang around into the Fourth of July weekend. That could threaten to wash out some parades and fireworks.

I have you all set to follow today’s flash flood threat and storm potential:

 

 

Thursday’s risk area

Latest Day 1 convective outlook

Current watches

Current Watches

Possible watch areas Current MDs

Have a great Thursday and take care.

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July starts with more rain and storms

Good Wednesday and welcome to July. We’re entering into what can be a very hot and dry time across the Bluegrass State. For the third summer in a row, that phrase isn’t being used very much. Rounds of heavy rain and thunderstorms will continue to work across the region as temps stay below normal.

Storms in recent days have caused some problems with local high water, wind and hail. The storms out there this afternoon might also be on the strong side. Highs should again be in the low 80s.

The thunderstorm and heavy rain threat should increase as we hit Thursday and Friday. An area of low pressure will zip across the region and give us a better chance at more widespread action. Some of the models have been spitting out some hefty rain totals during this time.

Similar systems might push across the region this Fourth of July weekend into early next week. The WPC is throwing out a lot of water for our region over the next week:

WPCTemps through the period should run below normal.

After a brief jump in temperature, it’s likely back to cool for the middle and end of next week:

Euro 2I leave you with the usual tools to track Wednesday’s action:

 

 

Wednesday’s risk area

Latest Day 1 convective outlook

Current watches

Current Watches

Possible watch areas Current MDs

Have a great day and take care.

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June ends with more rounds of storms

Good Tuesday, everyone. June is wrapping up on a rather stormy note. Storms have been common over the past couple of weeks, and it looks as if July will start out in similar fashion. Rounds of storms are likely to continue.

Storms Tuesday will fire up as another system dives in from the northwest. This could bring another round of strong and severe storms. Local high winds and hail will be possible. These storms might also cause some stream and street flooding.

Boomers will then come at us in waves over the next several days. Rainfall totals could be on the excessive side over the next week. The Weather Prediction Center is forecasting the heaviest amounts from the lower Ohio Valley to the Tennessee Valley:

WPCWe will have to keep a close eye on these rounds of storms.

Temps will continue to run below normal through the Fourth of July. Here’s a look at the highs from the European Model:

EuroTemps should reach normal to above normal (mid- and upper 80s) by early next week. Another shot of cool looks to follow that a few days later.

In the short term, it’s all about tracking some more big boomers. Track away:

 

 

Tuesday’s risk area

Latest Day 1 convective outlook

Current watches

Current Watches

Possible watch areas Current MDs

Have a great day and take care.

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Rounds of storms return

Good Monday to one and all. Rounds of showers and storms are back in the bluegrass state and this looks like another stormy week taking shape. We even run the risk for some strong or severe storms.

The action gets started out there today as a disturbance drops in from the northwest. Scattered showers and storms will blow up and a few of these could go severe. The main risk appears to be from large hail and high winds. Your tracking toys make their usual appearance in a bit.

Additional showers and storms will be around on Tuesday with highs back into the upper 70s and low 80s. Storms may increase even more from Wednesday through Friday as several systems drop in from the northwest:

Euro 2

These storms will put down some very heavy rains and could even produce some more severe weather. Will that extend into the 4th of July on Saturday? It’s possible and something I will try to hone in on over the next few days.

Temps this week continue to run below normal and that looks to be the case for the 4th:

GFS

Temps may spike a few days later, but the overall trend is back toward cooler right after that:

GFS Temps 2

Let’s get back to tracking the severe threat of today:

 

 

Today’s risk area

Latest Day 1 convective outlook

Current watches

Current Watches

Possible watch areas Current MDs

Make it a great day and take care.

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Storms follow a sensational Sunday

Good Sunday, everyone. We have one of the nicest days of the entire year in progress with plenty of sun and pleasant temps. It goes without saying, but you really need to get out and enjoy it. Not just because of how nice it is, but because more storms are on the way to close out June.

Temps today will range from the mid to upper 70s under mainly sunny skies. It’s basically late September weather we’re having.

Hamburg Area from WKYT Studio
Lexington

I-75 MP 127
Georgetown
I75 NB @ MP 127

US 60 @ US 460
Frankfort
US60 @ US460

You will notice some high clouds moving in from the northwest late this afternoon and evening. Those clouds are ahead of a system that should bring an increase in showers and storms on Monday. That action hangs tough into Tuesday and it all shows up well on the NAM Future Radar:

NAM 2

A few of those storms could be on the strong side. Highs both days should run in the upper 70s to low 80s.

The jet stream continues to dip into the eastern part of the country as we usher in the month of July. That keeps the heat across the western part of the country and keeps us in a pattern featuring normal to below normal temps. It’s also a setup that can deliver more storms:

Euro

As of now, the threat for scattered storms looks to be around for the 4th of July.

Have a great day and take care.

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A much cooler weekend

Good Saturday, everyone. Thunderstorms continue to push away from the region and that’s being replaced by some of the good stuff. Pleasant temps are ready to take over your weekend of weather.

An area of low pressure continues to push across the Ohio Valley today. This low is bringing some scattered showers to the region on a strong northwesterly wind flow. Some breaks in the clouds will be noted with highs generally from 70-75 degrees. A few areas could even drop into the upper 60s for a time.

Hamburg Area from WKYT Studio
Lexington

I-75 MP 127
Georgetown
I75 NB @ MP 127

US 60 @ US 460
Frankfort
US60 @ US460

If you’re looking for the best weather day of the summer, Sunday is a strong contender. Skies will be partly to mostly sunny with low humidity levels and highs in the mid to upper 70s.

Soak it up because another system dives in here by Monday. This comes from the northwest and will bring an increase in shower and thunderstorm action:

NAM 3

That scattered action should carry us into Tuesday with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s.

Temps stay normal to below normal as we flip the calendar into early July. But, that doesn’t mean all is well in the wonderful world of weather. Rounds of showers and storms should be around and that action likely takes us into the 4th of July weekend:

GFS

Hopefully, we can keep the nice temps and ditch the rain chances on the 4th. We still have a week to figure that one out.

Have a great day and take care.

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Another severe weather day

Good Friday to one and all. It’s shaping up to be another busy weather day across Central and Eastern Kentucky. Rounds of showers and storms will continue to push across the region, bringing an increased severe weather threat and the potential for flooding.

Here’s a breakdown of what to expect:

– A developing storm system will roll across the region from west to east through Saturday.

– This is a potent storm that doesn’t look like something you see during the summer months. Rounds of showers and storms will be common ahead of this system during the day.

– As the area of low pressure deepens later in the day, expect the threat of severe storms to rapidly increase across the entire region. The Storm Prediction Center highlights our region for the greatest chances for severe weather:

SPC

– As you can see, damaging winds will continue to be the main threat we have to be on guard for.

– If some storms form on their own ahead of the main cluster this evening, a tornado or two can’t be ruled out. Just as on Thursday, showers and storms from early in the day will have a lot to say about how that transpires.

– Much of the region is also under a flash flood watch through Saturday morning. We’ve had a lot of rain over the past few weeks, and additional totals of 1 to 3 inches will be possible in some areas. That could cause additional flash-flooding concerns.

– These storms will also be prolific lightning producers!

– The heaviest rains will end early Saturday with windy, cool and showery weather taking over. Temps fall into the 60s for much of the day.

The blog continues to be set up for your one and only stop to track the severe weather threat. Here you go:

Friday’s risk area

Latest Day 1 convective outlook

Current watches

Current Watches

Possible watch areas Current MDs

 

 

Have a great day and take care.

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Severe storms tracker

Good Thursday, folks. Thursday is shaping up to be a very active weather day across Central and Eastern Kentucky. Hot and humid weather will give way to a growing threat of severe storms late Thursday and overnight.

Our day might start with a weakening band of showers and storms moving in from the northwest. Temps and humidity will soar after that, and our heat index could be 100 degrees or higher at times. That’s when storms start cooking to our northwest.

A line of storms will then develop north of the Ohio River during the afternoon and race in from the north and northwest. The prime time for this line looks to be between 5 p.m. and midnight. Damaging winds will be the runaway winner as far as threats go. Large hail and isolated tornadoes will also be possible.

These storms should also produce prolific lightning and rain. That rain could cause some local flash flooding.

Things continue to look active Friday and Saturday as low pressure works into the region from the west and southwest. I’m becoming more concerned about the severe weather threat ahead of this system by late Friday and early Saturday. That setup could also be a flash-flood producer as a lot of rain looks to fall across our region.

Temps behind this departing low may drop into the 60s by Saturday afternoon. Sunday looks pleasantly cool with temps in the 70s for highs and just a small shower chance.

Showers and storms will then kick back in early next week as several systems dive in from the northwest. That setup keeps temps normal or below normal. This same setup might carry us through the Fourth of July weekend.

As usual, I have the blog set to be your one stop shop for tracking severe storms:

 

 

Thursday’s risk area

Latest Day 1 convective outlook

Current watches

Current Watches

Possible watch areas Current MDs

Have a great day and take care.

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Thundering into a cooler pattern

Good Wednesday, everyone. We have a much better brand of air across the Bluegrass State. Humidity and temps are down compared to the past few days, and that spells a pretty decent weather day. The same can’t be said for the days that follow.

Our weather pattern continues to be very active, and we have a lot of storms ahead of us. Those storms will really crank up after a hot and humid Thursday. Highs Thursday could reach 90 to 95 degrees, with an increase in humidity. The heat index could top out in the 100- to 105-degree range.

Winds will be rather gusty ahead of a cluster of thunderstorms that move in late in the day and overnight. Damaging winds will be possible.

More widespread showers and storms will then be possible Friday and Saturday as low pressure works across the area:

CanadianStrong storms and very heavy rainfall are possible with that system. Much cooler air then filters in behind it for the weekend and early next week. Highs in the upper 70s might be common during that time.

Another wet weather maker might blow into town by the middle of next week.

I leave you with all your Wednesday weather tracking tools:

 

 

Wednesday’s risk area

Latest Day 1 convective outlook

Current watches

Current Watches

Possible watch areas Current MDs

Enjoy the day and take care.

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