Tracking a big blast of fall

Good Monday to one and all. We have a big blast of fall temperatures blowing across the Commonwealth. This will usher in a stretch of cool to chilly temperatures that should carry us through the next week.

Today’s front will be accompanied by a broken band of showers and thunderstorms. This shouldn’t be a lot of rain, but some locally heavy downpours will be possible. Winds will be very gusty as temperatures crash from west to east. Readings should be in the 60s this afternoon:

Temps by Tuesday morning will likely be deep into the 40s across the entire region. Afternoon temps should range from the upper 60s to lower 70s.

A huge upper level low then takes up residence across the region for the rest of the week, and through the upcoming weekend:

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That setup should be accompanied by rounds of gusty showers spinning around the cutoff low:

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This could make for some chilly afternoon high temps with overnight lows generally in the 40s.

Have a memorable Monday and take care.

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Here comes fall

Good Sunday, folks. We are about to say goodbye to this obnoxious heat that has engulfed the region for much of the month. Fall temperatures are about to blast into the bluegrass state on Monday, and they should stick around for a while.

Our cold front arrives by Monday afternoon and will have a band of gusty showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures will drop through the 60s as the showers move in.

This front continues to push to the east with chilly air swinging in behind it. As skies clear Monday night, temps may drop to 40-45 in many areas:

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Highs on Tuesday may not get to 70 degrees for many areas. The conditions for the rest of the week will be determined by the upper low. The European is back to showing this system being right on top of us by the middle of the week:

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That could give is a shower or two and act to keep highs in the upper 60s to low 70s for Wednesday and Thursday.

The cutoff low then strengthens and works back toward the west by Friday and Saturday. Check out the increase in showers during this time:

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Any day that features clouds and showers can be VERY chilly. Even with sun, the best we could get may be low and middle 70s.

If we see that hanging around, that’s still a cool looking setup into the first few days of October.

Have a great Sunday and take care.

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Much cooler air on the way

Good Saturday, folks. Our toasty temps roll on through the weekend, but some BIG changes are on the way for the upcoming week. I’ve got a blast of fall temperatures ready to take control of our weather.

Highs today will be near 90 with a mix of sun and high clouds. This will make for some toasty tailgating out at Commonwealth Stadium, but the actual game time temps will feel pretty nice.

Sunday sees more sun and middle 80s as winds increase. Those winds are ahead of a strong fall cold front working toward Kentucky. This bad boy arrives Monday with a line of showers and thunderstorms:

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That is a CLASSIC fall storm system and cold front, and will cause a huge drop in temps as the day wears on Monday.

Highs from Tuesday through Thursday should hit the upper 60s to low 70s for many. Overnight lows will drop into the 40s:

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While the numbers will rebound by next weekend, don’t expect anything close to where we have been over the past few weeks.

From there, the pattern into the first week of October suggests the potential for a big tropical system in the Gulf of Mexico.

Have a wonderful Saturday and take care.

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Big changes show up next week

Good Friday to one and all. It’s the first full day of fall, but the weather continues to be stuck on summer. Toasty temps take us through the weekend, but a much cooler pattern is settling in for next week.

Highs Friday and Saturday will be 85 to 90 for much of Central and Eastern Kentucky. Things look to be in good shape for high school football fans this evening, and for University of Kentucky fans Saturday evening.

The winds of change begin to blow in Monday. This is when a strong cold front works into the region from the west. Showers and thunderstorms begin to increase and might carry us into Tuesday. The GFS is most aggressive with the rain potential:

gfs

The models disagree on the amount of rain, but they all agree on much cooler air around here. Check out where the coolest air in relation to normal is:

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Highs for Wednesday and Thursday of next week might struggle to get to 70 degrees in many areas:

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After the recent heat we’ve had, I doubt too many people will be complaining about the cooler numbers.

Have a great Friday and take care.

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Looking way down the weather road

Good Thursday to one and all. Fall arrives with summertime temps hanging tough across the Commonwealth of Kentucky. This will roll on through the weekend, before some big changes show up next week.

Highs Thursday through Saturday will generally range from 85 to 90 degrees, with morning lows about 60. Skies stay mostly sunny.

Change starts early next week with the potential for a big upper-level low to cut. The models always struggle with placement and timing of these things, but the signal for something has been there for a long time now.

The GFS starts things with a strong cold front passing through late Monday and Tuesday, with showers and thunderstorms abound:

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The European model is just a littler slower with this big system, with the bulk of the action arriving from Monday night through Wednesday:

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As the upper low closes off and slows down, the European brings that right on top of our region for the second half of next week.

In recent weeks, I have been showing the warm pool of water across the Gulf Of Alaska and how it is still going strong. I first talked about this in the fall of 2013 and then homed in on it as the likely driving force for a harsh winter. That same warm pool was there for the following harsh winter. It was there last year, but was the super el nino muted it’s potential.

That warm pool continues to show up on the seasonal models for the winter ahead:

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The latest temperature run from the WeatherBell CFS goes cold:

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While that model does show some pretty big changes from day to day, I have noticed more and more days showing a colder look. Again: Take it with a grain of salt, but also as something of a learning tool.

In addition to the past few winters, other analog years showing up: 1983-84, 1995-96 and 2000-2001.

Have a great day and take care.

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Stuck on summer

Good Wednesday, folks. It’s a weather pattern stuck in neutral, and that means summer air rolls on across the Bluegrass State. This toasty air will continue into the start of the weekend, but some changes show up late this weekend into next week.

Wednesday through Friday will be something straight out of the movie “Groundhog Day,” because every day will be the same. Overnight lows will be near 60 with a touch of fog, and afternoon highs will range from 85 to 90 degrees.

A weak front slides in late Saturday, but it looks dry as it moves through. That should knock temps down into the upper 70s to low 80s for Sunday under mostly sunny skies.

Another cold front moves our way Monday, but it leaves behind a significant piece of energy across the southwestern part of the country:

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That front can bring in a broken line of showers and storms, along with a cool shot of air Tuesday and Wednesday.

What happens with the big upper low across the southwest? The models bring that our way very slowly next week:

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Anything would be a welcomed change at this point.

Make it a wonderful Wednesday and take care.

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The summer that won’t end

Good Tuesday, everyone. It’s no secret that our summer has been a toasty one across Central and Eastern Kentucky. Allow me to let you in on another little secret: It’s not about to end anytime soon.

Temps this week will average much above normal, with a lot of highs in the mid and upper 80s. There’s a chance that we hit 90 at some point later in the week. If you’re thinking about record highs, that’s probably not going to happen. Records on most days are deep into the 90s.

Much of the week also looks dry, with just a chance of showers in the east.

This should change in a big way as we head into the weekend. One cold front gets ready to dive in from the north and northeast, with another waiting in the wings by Monday.

Here’s the setup from Saturday to Sunday:

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That front can kick off a shower or storm late Saturday, and knock temps way down on Sunday, but only for parts of the state:

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That’s a heck of a temp gradient setting up along that boundary. Just how far south it can get will be the determining factor on how pleasant your Sunday will be.

That next front drops in with scattered showers and storms on Monday. Another front drops in by the middle of next week with a deeper dip in the jet stream:

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That’s the one that can bring a few days of very cool air into our region. “Can” being the key word.

Have a great day and take care.

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Summer keeps going

Good Monday, and welcome to another week of summer temps. This hotter-than-normal pattern just won’t go away, and it could another 90-degree day our way later this week.

Monday will be a pretty nice day, with partly sunny skies and highs in the low 80s.

Tropical depression Julia continues to spin along the North Carolina coast. This might back to the west and throw some showers into Eastern Kentucky over the next few days. This is a cool future radar loop from the NAM:

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That moves away by the second half of the week. This is when temperatures can really take off, with lots of highs in the upper 80s showing up. Local 90 degree highs will be possible into the start of the weekend.

Changes start to show up by Sunday and Monday as a strong cold front rolls across the region:

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A gusty line of showers and thunderstorms will be possible along and ahead of that front. The big news would be the significantly cooler air coming in behind it. Check out this deep dip in the jet stream:

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Have a magnificent Monday and take care.

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Tracking a cold front

Good Sunday, everyone. We have a cold front working across the state, and this is bringing more showers and storms to parts of the region. Once this bad boy scoots to our east, summertime temps get ready to surge back in for the week ahead.

Sunday’s showers and storms will mainly be early across Central Kentucky, but they should linger into the early evening across the east. Locally heavy downpours are possible.

Monday’s weather looks much better, with sunshine and highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s.

Temps will then take off, with highs in the mid- and upper 80s for the middle and end of next week. Another 90-degree high will be possible during this sizzler of a September.

Big changes start to show up next weekend. This is when we see our jet stream take a huge dip across much of the country:

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A potent cold front will precede that trough, with a substantial band of rain and storms possible:

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Chilly air should blast in behind that boundary for the final week of September.

Have a sensational Sunday and take care.

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Scattered storms for the weekend

Good Saturday, folks. We’ve made it to the weekend, and some scattered storms have finally made it back into Central and Eastern Kentucky. These storms will be around for the next couple of days, bringing a nice drink of water to the region.

Let me get this out there: The weekend is not going to be a total washout. Just have a backup plan to be on the safe side. If you’re going to Commonwealth Stadium, pack the poncho to be safe.

Any storm that does come along can put down a lot of water in a short amount of time and contain a lot of lightning.

Track away:

More of the same will be around into Sunday with the greatest concentration across the east.

Monday looks good, with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s and partly sunny skies.

Summer temps blow back in for the middle and end of next week. Don’t be surprised if we string together several more days of highs in the mid to upper 80s.

The pattern tries to change by next weekend and early next week. That’s when we find a the models advertising a big dip in the jet stream:

canadian

If that’s real, some chilly fall air would be the end result.

Make it a great day and take care.

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