It gets ugly for a few days

Good Tuesday, everyone. We have had some very stormy weather of late across our part of the world, with many areas getting in on strong storms and flooding rains. While we still have some additional rains on the way, the chilly air will soon take center stage.

Highs our there today are in the 60s with a mix of sun and clouds and the potential for a shower or storm going up.

A strong cold front dives in on Wednesday with some gusty showers and thunderstorms around. Temps drop into the 50s during the afternoon as the front moves in. This is being pushed by a huge upper level low that camps out across the area for a few days. This could keep some showers going into Thursday:

Euro

Lows to start Thursday are cold for early May…

GFS TEMPS 1

Maybe a touch of frost?

Afternoon temps may REALLY struggle for many…

GFS TEMPS 2

As it stands now, the upper low moves away from the region for Oaks Day and Derby Day. If it works that way, conditions will be much, much better. Derby Day temps may really take off and reach the middle 70s.

Enjoy your Tuesday and take care.

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A busy Kentucky Derby week

Good Monday, everyone. It’s Kentucky Derby week, and Mother Nature is threatening to steal the show. We’ve been in a very active weather pattern for the past few weeks, and that looks to continue this week.

Things are starting off with the potential for scattered showers and thunderstorms across our region. Areas of southeastern Kentucky have had flooding problems over the weekend, and they stand to see the heaviest rain Monday. This could cause additional high-water problems in some areas.

Here’s all you need to track Monday’s action:

Once this moves away, it’s game on for a significant upper-level system to drop in from the northwest late Tuesday. This cuts off across the region, with unsettled weather through Friday:

Euro

As that dives in, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a few strong thunderstorms. Once it gets here, we will see a daily threat of a shower or a small hail-producing thunderstorm through Friday. At night skies can clear, allowing temps to really drop. There’s the chance of lows in the mid- and upper 30s by the end of the week, with a kiss of frost possible.

The latest model forecasts show that upper system slipping off to our east by Saturday, Derby day, but it’s a close call. The latest European Model then shows another front dropping in from the north by Saturday night and Sunday.

Enjoy your Monday and take care.

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Some ugly showing up for Kentucky Derby Week

Good Sunday to one and all. The month of May is starting out on a rather damp and stormy note out there today. This looks to be a sign of things to come as we head into Kentucky Derby Week. Some nasty is showing up as our temps get ready to take a big drop.

Scattered showers and storms will rumble across the region through this evening. Any of these storms can be strong or locally severe. Heavy rainfall continues to be a possibility for some areas, so watch the creeks and streams.

Here’s what you need to track today’s action:
Latest Day 1 convective outlook

Current watches
Current Watches

Possible watch areas
Current MDs

Another rain and storm maker looks to take aim at the region late Monday into early Tuesday. The NAM is showing widespread showers and storms:

NAM

Much cooler air sweeps in on Tuesday with temps struggling to get to 60 in a few areas.

This much cooler than normal air continues through the rest of the week as a huge upper level low drops into our region:

GFS Temps

Unsettled weather in the form of gusty showers may be with us at times:

GFS

I’m hopeful we can get that system to pull away by the weekend, but it’s going to be a very close call.

Make it a sensational Sunday and take care.

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Storms usher in a cooler setup

Good Saturday and welcome to the final day of April. The month is going out on a stormy note, and it looks like May will start off on a similar note with more boomers filling the air. All this introduces us to a much cooler pattern for Kentucky Derby Week.

Today’s showers and storms will come at us in waves from southwest to northeast. A few of the storms may be strong with very heavy rainfall. Highs will generally range from the upper 60s to low 70s.

Additional rounds of showers and storms carry us into Sunday with some heavy rains and strong storms are a possibility. Many areas could pick up another inch or two of rain before the weekend is over.

Much cooler air works in for Monday with highs only in the low 60s. A southern system tries to bring some rain back in here for Tuesday…

GFS

That’s followed up by a strong cold front that can produce a line of strong storms late Wednesday…

GFS 2

Even colder air moves in behind that for Thursday and Friday. The European Model develops a huge cutoff low on top of the region with a big storm off the east coast…

Euro

Make it a great Saturday and take care.

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More storms for the weekend

Good Friday to one and all. Our weekend is starting out on a beautiful note, with sun and warm weather. Don’t get too used to it, because showers and storms are ready to crash our weekend.

Highs Friday will hit the low and middle 70s in many areas. Skies stay partly to mostly sunny, with lower humidity than the past few days.

Rounds of showers and storms increase from southwest to northeast Saturday. There’s the potential for a few strong storms, but the local high-water threat looks like something to watch for.

The high-resolution NAM is showing some hot spots of torrential rain:

NAMAdditional rounds of showers and thunderstorms will be possible into Sunday as low pressure works through the region. The lower-resolution models indicate a general inch or two of rain through the weekend:

Canadian

The overall pattern into next week looks much cooler than normal as a big dip in the jet stream dives in across the eastern part of the country:

GFS 4

Enjoy your Friday and take care.

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A small break in the stormy action

Good Thursday, everyone. Our weather pattern has been very stormy over the past few days, but we have a break in the action on the way. This is only a brief break as thunderstorms move back in for the weekend.

Scattered storms will be around Thursday, but nothing like what we’ve had over the past few days. Highs will generally run in the 70s:

Friday looks much better, with partly sunny skies and highs generally in the low and middle 70s.

Another system rolls in over the weekend, with showers and thunderstorms on the increase. Heavy rain and some strong storms will be possible.

A much cooler setup moves in next week:

GFS TEMPS 1

That could also come with some showers around:

Euro

That could make for some cool and damp times in the run-up to Kentucky Derby weekend. Will that pattern hold into the big day? The GFS says it will:

GFS 3

We shall see.

Make it a great day and take care.

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Rounds of storms continue

Good Wednesday, folks. Thunderstorms made a noisy return to the Bluegrass State overnight, and this is a sign of things to come. We have additional rounds of boomers blowing across the Bluegrass over the next few days, with a bigger system possible by the weekend.

A front is draped across the region and will be the focal point for additional showers and storms to blossom. Any storm Wednesday can be strong or severe, with high winds and hail.

These storms will be torrential rain producers that can cause local high water problems. I have you all set to do some tracking:

Wednesday’s risk area
Latest Day 1 convective outlook

Current watches
Current Watches

Possible watch areas
Current MDs

A few more rounds of storms are likely Thursday, with drying conditions moving in Friday.

The next storm sweeps in from the southwest Saturday and Sunday:

Euro

That system might bring another round of heavy rainfall to go along with additional strong storms.

‘Tis the storm season here in Kentucky.

Make it a wonderful Wednesday and take care.

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A stormy setup moves in

Good Tuesday to one and all. Rounds of showers and thunderstorms are on the way to the region over the next several days. This setup can produce some nasty weather around here, with strong storms and heavy rain the big players.

The first round of storms sweeps in late Tuesday. It’s the first of many rounds that carry us through the weekend. We aren’t alone in this stormy setup:

Special 2

Any of these storm clusters could be strong or, locally, severe. The main threat might end up being from the torrential rain I wouldn’t be surprised if some areas picked up 2 to 4 inches of rain through the weekend. Locally higher amounts would be possible in strong storms.

I have you all set to track the first round of storms into the area:

Tuesday’s risk area
Latest Day 1 convective outlook

Current watches
Current Watches

Possible watch areas
Current MDs

Make it a great day and take care.

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Storms return in the week ahead

Good Monday, folks. We are kicking off the final work week of April on a very warm note. Temps on Monday will rise toward the low 80s in much of the region. While we enjoy a mainly dry day, rounds of showers and storms are on the way.

The greatest risk of storms moves in later Tuesday and Wednesday. It’s a setup that can produce rounds of showers and storms through Thursday. That shows up well on the GFS:

GFS 2

Some of the storms might be on the strong side during this time.

After a warm break in the action Friday, a much bigger system throws more storms our way next weekend:

GFS 3

Once again, we will have to be on guard for some strong or severe thunderstorms bubbling up. Rainfall over the next week and change could be hefty from the Plains states into our part of the world:

Canadian

The long range call for Kentucky Derby week is for a chilly pattern to try and dig in. Many of the models suggest temps for much of the week could be below normal. The super-duper long-range GFS even shows a “kiss of frost” potential:

GFS

Make it a great Monday and take care.

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The week ahead turns active

Good Sunday, folks. We’re putting the wraps on another splendid weather weekend here in the bluegrass state. Things continue to run on the dry side, but that is likely to change during the upcoming week. Showers and storms are on the way.

Highs today will flirt with 80 degrees in some areas as sunny skies hang tough. Monday looks similar with upper 70s and low 80s with just a small threat for a shower or thunderstorm.

The threat for showers and storms ramps up later Tuesday through Thursday as a wave of low pressure works into the Ohio Valley:

Euro

That system is likely to feed upon a significant temperature gradient setting up across the country. Check this out:

GFS

That’s very impressive to see, and could lead to some strong storms around here.

That should be followed up by a stronger storm system moving our way next weekend. Here’s the European Model:

Euro 2

The air coming in behind that is likely to bring a shot of colder than normal air into, at least, the first part of Kentucky Derby week.

Make it a great Sunday and take care.

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