Storms increase in the week ahead

Good Sunday to one and all. Warm weather continues to increase across the commonwealth of Kentucky. This warm air is getting a partner in crime as muggy air joins the mix. Put those two together and you will get an increasing threat for showers and storms in the week ahead.

Today looks like another very nice day with highs running in the low and middle 80s. Skies will be partly to mostly sunny with just the slightest chance for a popup shower or storm. The best chance for that will be across the west.

Hamburg Area from WKYT Studio
Lexington

I-75 MP 127
Georgetown
I75 NB @ MP 127

US 60 @ US 460
Frankfort
US60 @ US460

You might want to have a backup plan for those Memorial Day cookouts as scattered showers and storms increase. This doesn’t look like a washout, but you can see how the action increases later Monday into Tuesday on the NAM:

NAMThe threat for showers and storms should increase as we roll through next week and into the weekend. This pattern looks active and it could deliver some very heavy rains to the region. The GFS rainfall numbers for the next week show this well:

GFS

Make it a great Sunday and take care.

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Summer air surges in

Good Saturday and welcome to the Memorial Day weekend. Our weather is starting off on an absolutely wonderful note with plenty of sun and warm air. High humidity levels will join the warm temps and those two could conspire to produce a few cookout crashing showers and storms  by Monday.

Highs today will reach the low 80s in most areas with plenty of sunny skies. There will be a touch more humidity in the air, but it’s nothing we can’t handle.

Hamburg Area from WKYT Studio
Lexington

I-75 MP 127
Georgetown
I75 NB @ MP 127

US 60 @ US 460
Frankfort
US60 @ US460

The warm and humid air really kicks on Sunday with temps reaching the low and middle 80s. Those numbers may come down a bit on Monday with increase in showers and storms.

GFS

GFS Temps

Much of next week will feature temps in the low and mid 80s with scattered showers and storms possible. Overall… it’s a week of typical summer weather here in the bluegrass state.

Have a great Saturday and take care.

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Memorial Day weekend starts with nice weather

Good Friday, everyone. Memorial Day weekend is starting out on a much better weather note across Central and Eastern Kentucky. That is great news for all the folks hitting the roads to start those weekend plans.

Our day starts chilly, with lows in the upper 30s and low 40s. Afternoon highs will reach the low 70s for most of the region, with partly sunny skies.

Hamburg Area from WKYT Studio
Lexington

I-75 MP 127
Georgetown
I75 NB @ MP 127

US 60 @ US 460
Frankfort
US60 @ US460

Highs on Saturday will rise to near 80 degrees under mostly sunny skies. Temps continue to climb for Sunday, with many areas seeing highs in the 80-85 degree range. There will be the smallest threat of a shower or storm across the west.

Highs in the low to middle 80s are likely on Memorial Day. An increase in humidity coming from the western Gulf of Mexico should mean an increased chance of some scattered storms. This flow looks to increase into the middle of next week:

EuroThat same setup should carry us through most of next week into the following weekend. Daytime highs are likely to be in the low and mid-80s with overnight lows in the low 60s. Each day should feature the threat of a scattered shower or storm.

Have a great day and take care.

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A chilly day before summer air surges in

Good Thursday to one and all. We have a rather chilly and ugly weather day across the Bluegrass State. Luckily, this isn’t a sign of things to come. Much warmer air surges in for Memorial Day weekend.

Let’s start with the ugly part of the program. Low clouds, drizzle and some showers will linger through much of the day. That means temps will really, really struggle to rise. Highs in the low 60s might be about as good as it gets, and some areas might not get out of the 50s.

Hamburg Area from WKYT Studio
Lexington

I-75 MP 127
Georgetown
I75 NB @ MP 127

US 60 @ US 460
Frankfort
US60 @ US460

Skies will clear Thursday night and early Friday as temps take a dive into the low 40s. The GFS is even forecasting a few places in the 30s:

GFS TEMPS 1Friday afternoon looks much better, with highs hitting the low and mid-70s under partly sunny skies.

Readings by Saturday will really take off as highs in most places reach the 80-degree mark. Low and mid-80s should push in for the rest of the weekend. An increase in humidity could spawn some scattered showers and storms, but it doesn’t look like a washout.

GFSScattered storms and warm air look fairly common for much of next week.

Have a great day and take care.

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Cool weather before holiday weekend changes

Good Wednesday, everyone. Much cooler-than-normal weather has settled into our region and will stick around for a couple more days. This air will warm up and storm up as we head into Memorial Day weekend.

We have one little speed bump to cross later Wednesday as a weak system zips through. That might be just strong enough to touch off some scattered showers and storms in the evening and overnight.

Highs ahead of this system will range from the upper 60s to the low 70s.

That action clears out quickly Thursday, with some afternoon sun but with highs struggling to get to 70 degrees.

Friday starts chilly, with temps not too far away from the 40-degree mark. Here’s the GFS forecast:

GFS TEMPS 1Highs by the afternoon should be back into the upper 60s and low 70s with sunny skies. Basically, it’s another great day.

Saturday looks warmer, with highs in the upper 70s to near 80. It looks like we keep the sunshine, but that might fade as we head into Sunday and Monday. Higher humidity levels will lead to the threat of a few storms. That’s a threat that should carry us into Tuesday:

GFSTemps during this time will be in the low and middle 80s.

Have a great day and take care.

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A taste of September air

Good Tuesday, everyone. The calendar says we’re into the second half of May, but the weather over the next few days will feel more like late September. We have some cooler and drier air rolling our way for much of the rest of the week.

The front is crossing the region Tuesday, and that means a tight temperature gradient. Readings by the time we hit the heart of the afternoon should range from 70 in the far north to 80 in the far southeast. There is the smallest chance of a leftover shower or storm in the east.

Wednesday morning will be downright chilly. Some of the models suggest upper 30s and low 40s across parts of Central and Northern Kentucky. Here’s the Hi-Res NAM:

NAM 2Highs by Wednesday afternoon will only be in the upper 60s to low 70s with increasing clouds. A shower or thunderstorm will be possible from later in the day through very early Thursday morning.

Thursday and Friday should continue that September feel, with highs in the upper 60s and low 70s. Skies should stay partly cloudy.

Memorial Day weekend starts out pretty good, with some sunshine and highs in the upper 70s. Muggy air joins the party with temps in the low and middle 80s for Sunday and Monday. The threat of thunderstorms will increase, too.

GFSHave a great day and take care.

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Tracking a strong cold front

Good Monday, everyone. We have a strong cold front working into the region and this will touch off more rounds of showers and storms. These storms could become strong or severe  in the afternoon and evening.

If you’re looking for some better weather, it’s coming your way for the second half of the week.

Highs Monday will reach the upper 70s and low 80s with the tropical humidity continuing. Showers and storms will continue to develop, and a few could produce hail and high winds. The most likely chance of that might wind up being across the north and northeast. I will have your tracking tools in a bit.

Isolated showers and storms will be possible Tuesday as a front moves through. Much cooler air settles in for Wednesday, with lows in the 40s and highs in the upper 60s and low 70s. There’s the chance of a few late-day showers and storms with a weak disturbance swinging in. The future radar from the NAM shows this:

NAM 2Highs for Thursday and Friday shouldn’t get too far away from the 70-degree mark.

The Memorial Day weekend weather doesn’t look to be the best in the world, right now. Saturday will see highs nearing 80 with some sun. Sunday and Monday have the potential to turn stormy.

Speaking of stormy, we have some big boomers possible Monday. Let’s track:

Monday’s risk area

Latest Day 1 convective outlook

Current watches

Current Watches

Possible watch areas Current MDs

 

 

Have a great day and take care.

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Another day of muggy air and scattered storms

Good Sunday to one and all. Our weekend looks to wrap up on another muggy and stormy note across central and eastern Kentucky. This pattern has one more day left in the tank before we get in on some much cooler and drier weather for the middle and end of the week ahead.

You know the drill by now… highs today will reach the upper 70s and low 80s for most areas. High humidity levels will give us a very tropical feel with scattered showers and thunderstorms going up. Just like yesterday, any boomer that goes up will produce heavy rain and a lot of lightning.

A cold front enters the picture on Monday and should give us an increase in storm action:

GFS

This is still not a great setup for severe weather, but a strong storm is certainly possible. The bigger threat continues to be the potential for some local high water issues from the tropical rains.

The air behind that front from late Tuesday into Wednesday will cool down and dry out. Highs by Wednesday should only reach the upper 60s to low 70s. Check out the almost chilly morning lows from the GFS:

GFS Temps

There’s a small shower chance by Thursday and Friday as some warmer air tries to fight back in. That air shouldn’t arrive until the weekend with an increase in scattered storms.

We have some scattered storms to track out there today. As always, the blog is you storm tracking tool:

 

 

Hamburg Area from WKYT Studio
Lexington

I-75 MP 127
Georgetown
I75 NB @ MP 127

US 60 @ US 460
Frankfort
US60 @ US460

Have a great Sunday and take care.

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Storms add to the tropical feel

Good Saturday and welcome to the weekend. It’s a weekend straight out of the tropics with warm temps, muggy air and scattered showers and thunderstorms. The only thing missing is the beach. Can someone get to work on that?

Highs today will generally run in the upper 70s to low 80s. The muggy air will make it feel rather oppressive out there. This muggy air will lead to rounds of showers and thunderstorms going up. These storms could contain some very heavy rains and a lot of lightning.

This same setup is likely to be with us for Sunday and Monday. A couple of storms could be on the strong side, especially on Monday. That’s when a powerful cold front works across our region.

Rainfall totals on the forecast models have been increasing with this setup. The NAM suggests some 1″-2″ amounts for a few areas:

NAM

Much cooler and drier air will follow our Monday front with some pretty good weather for the middle of next week.

I leave you with your storm tracking tools for this Saturday.

 

 

Have a great day and take care.

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Some steam and storms for the weekend

Good Friday to one and all. We have a much different air mass pushing into the region for the weekend. Warm and muggy air will combine forces to produce a scattering of showers and thunderstorms.

High temps from today through Sunday will generally range from the high 70s to low 80s. Tropical air will help fuel scattered showers and thunderstorms during this time. That doesn’t mean each day is a washout, but you may want to have a backup plan for any outdoor activities.

A strong cold front will sweep in here on Monday with a bit of an increase in the thunderstorm threat. The air coming in behind that front looks even cooler than the air we just had. You can see the cool air moving in Tuesday through Thursday:

Euro 2High temps coming from the European Model are downright chilly fro this time of year:

GFS TEMPS 1

I leave you with your weather tracking toys:

 

 

Hamburg Area from WKYT Studio
Lexington

I-75 MP 127
Georgetown
I75 NB @ MP 127

US 60 @ US 460
Frankfort
US60 @ US460

Have a wonderful day and take care.

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