A frigid Friday starts the weekend

Good Friday to one and all. We have frigid temps and snow flurries taking over out there today. This is kicking off a weekend that will feature another system to close things out by later Sunday.

Highs today will be in the mid and upper 20s, but gusty winds will make it feel like the teens all day. A few snow flurries will be noted this morning, with some rays of sun this afternoon.

Lows by Saturday morning will drop into the middle teens for many. Afternoon sunshine will help temps hit the freezing mark.

The next system moving in here by late Sunday into Monday could bring a bit of a wintry mix across the northern parts of the region. While this is a west-east moving system, it’s going just a little farther north to give us much in the way of true winter weather.

The NAM shows much of the winter weather to our north, but does have some frozen stuff across northern areas of the state:

nam-2

The next item up for bids is an arctic front slated to arrive by the middle of next week:

gfs-2

That will likely have a system along it that can bring winter weather to our part of the world. Behind it…. B to the RR. 🙂

Have a great Friday and take care.

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Winter weather settles in

Good Thursday to one and all. We have arctic cold settling in across the state. This action kicks off what appears to be a very wintry setup for much of the country over the next couple of weeks.

The really cold air is lagging behind this just a bit and filters in later Thursday. After a brief taste of the sun, clouds will quickly fill in again on a northwesterly flow. Low-level moisture into Friday can spit out some snow flurries.

You can see all the widespread moisture courtesy of this relative humidity map at 925 mb:

nam

Highs will be in the 20s, but it will never feel that “warm.”

The late weekend system continues to look like a winter weather-maker for our region. The European model has gone back to a scenario of a very strong storm system over our heads. I don’t think that’s correct, as the Euro has had a rough go of late in overdeveloping these kinds of systems.

Still, if it is correct, things would start getting wintry before going to rain and then ending as snow.

The Canadian model also has gone to a stronger storm system, but it’s keying more on the southern side of things. Instead of showing a potent low cutting into the Great Lakes, we have a Tennessee Valley system bringing snow to our region:

canadian

If we take that verbatim, the Canadian shows a big snowfall for Kentucky.

The GFS is more of a compromise with a weaker system:

gfs

Odds favor the greatest chance of snow across northern parts of the state, with rain and a mix elsewhere.

Next week will feature a major arctic attack for much of the country:

euro-2

That is one ugly-looking air mass that is likely to be introduced by a snowfall across our region.

Speaking of snowfall, the GFS ensembles continue to have “that look” over the next two weeks:

gfs-snow-2

Have a terrific Thursday and take care.

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Arctic front ready to move in

Good Wednesday to one and all. It’s the middle of the week and we are tracking an arctic front into the region. This will set the stage for very cold air for the rest of the week, and it is likely to kickoff a cold pattern with wintry threats.

Ahead of this front Wednesday, cloud and winds will increase with highs of 40 to 45  mph in many areas. The front moves in overnight with a few flurries behind it.

The cold takes hold as we get deeper into Thursday, with readings dropping into the upper 20s and low 30s. With a northwesterly wind, some snow flurries might fly all the way into Friday. Highs then should stay in the 20s, but gusty winds will make it feel much colder.

The late weekend system continues to trend colder as we get closer. The GFS is now giving us a decent shot of wintry weather:

gfs

Notice how the GFS snowfall forecast has shifted farther south with this:

gfs-snow

The European model is also trending less amplified with this system:

euro

Speaking of the European model, it’s backing up the GFS and all the ensembles with the arctic air for next week. It shows a couple waves of snow coming into to the region:

euro-2

euro-3

The surface temperature anomalies for the middle and end of next week are insane:

euro-4

Have a great day and take care.

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Tracking heavy rain and an arctic front

Good Tuesday, everyone. Heavy rain is pushing across the area, leaving behind a soggy Bluegrass State. Now we await the arrival of an arctic front, slated to slam through early Thursday.

Tuesday’s heaviest rain comes in the morning, with many areas picking up a quick inch or so of rainfall. Showers will taper from southwest to northeast in the afternoon as low clouds and gusty winds remain.

The big Lexington Christmas parade looks mostly dry, but watch for wet roads and areas of drizzle. Highs will be in the low 40s.

Your rain trackers for the day:

The arctic front moves in Wednesday night, with crashing temps and a few snowflakes right behind the front. From there, a cold northwesterly flow will try to throw a snow shower or flurry our way Thursday and Friday:

nam

The next system to affect the region comes late this weekend, and the operational models continue to try to figure that mess out. I maintain that this is a west-to-east mover. As always, we shall see.

This is a great pattern to focus more on the ensembles than the operational models. The ensembles had this weeks of cold well before the operational models picked up on it. The ensembles do show rounds of big cold coming through over the next few weeks.

They also show chances of snow. Here are the individual members from the GFS ensembles for the next two weeks:

gfs

Have a great day and take care.

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Heavy rain before arctic cold moves in

Good Monday, everybody. The first full week of December is getting started on a very active weather note. We have a potent system set to bring heavy rain into our part of the world. Once that moves through, we say hello to some arctic cold!

Skies will stay cloudy out there Monday as rain starts to increase from the southwest. The heavy stuff won’t arrive until tonight and Tuesday, and it could add up. Most models are forecasting more than an inch of rain:

nam

That’s just awesome to see and will continue the trend of putting to bed a short-term fall drought across our region.

Track the stuff from the southwest:

After that, here comes the arctic front. The models continue to be split on a wave developing along the boundary. The pattern certainly favors a weak system, and the European continues to show that:

euro

If that wave is real, a band of light snow would be noted behind the front across our region. That would be likely to happen Wednesday night and early Thursday.

A strong northwesterly flow of arctic air will then settle in, probably bringing some snow showers and flurries through Friday:

euro-2

That’s some real deal cold air and gusty winds. The model output numbers are already cold, and in situations like this, they grow colder the closer you get. Highs in the 20s with lows deep into the teens will be noted. Wind chill numbers will be even lower.

We are in the four- to seven-day window of where models start to flip and flop on a potential system next weekend. This seems to be a definitive trend in all models, then they suddenly find the original solution within four days or so. I maintain that next weekend’s system is not likely to be a big storm that amplifies across our region. The pattern favors a system rolling due east with some winter weather along it.

Once that swings through, western Canada has the next arctic blast lined up ready to dive southeast. Here’s the European at day 10:

euro-3

Have a great Monday and take care.

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Winter kicks in for the week ahead

Good Sunday to one and all. Things are looking rather dreary out there today as rain and a few flakes roll across the region. This leads us into a pattern that takes on a big time winter look in the week ahead.

Let’s start with today and roll forward. Light rain will be noted from time to time and could mix with a wet snowflake to start the day. Highs will generally range in the upper 30s to low 40s. Track away:

Nothing has changed with my thoughts on the arctic front arriving Wednesday night. We have to watch for a weak wave of low pressure developing along this boundary. The Canadian shows this:

canadian

So does the European Model:

euro

That would mean a band of light snow behind the front with snow showers and some flurries behind it into later Thursday and Friday. This is some VERY cold air coming into the region. 850mb temps as low as -22c:

canadian-3

Highs in the low and mid 20s with lows deep into the teens. Wind chills make it feel much, much colder.

The stage is then set for another system to work in from the west and into the Tennessee Valley by next weekend. That is usually a good snow track for our region. Here’s the Canadian:

canadian-4

The European Model is similar, but with a bigger storm:

euro-2

Taken verbatim, both of the above models put down heavy snow across the entire state. Again, that’s a week away so take any one solution with a grain of salt. That said, the signal is strong with this one.

Have a great Sunday and take care.

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A very active weather pattern

Good Saturday and welcome to the weekend. It’s the first weekend of December and the overall weather pattern is starting to look more and more like wintertime. We have a lot of action coming at us in the next several days, with arctic air lurking later next week.

A weak system rolls in here later tonight into Sunday with some light rain. It may be just cold enough for a few wet flakes to mix in early Sunday morning. The best chance is across the north and northeast. The GFS is still seeing the potential:

gfs-snow

Sunday just looks like a rather ugly and chilly weather day.

The next system is much bigger and brings heavy rain back in here late Monday into Tuesday…

gfs

That could lead to another 1″+ of rain across much of the state.

Arctic air is on the move behind this system, with the traditional timing and evolvement issues showing up with the models. The GFS is too fast and progressive, as always, with that system.

The European Model continues to indicate a wave of low pressure developing along the boundary:

euro

That wave will likely show up stronger on the models in coming days and could deliver a stripe of snow across the region. Behind that, snow showers and flurries will likely fly around through Friday. Highs in the low and mid 20s will be a good bet, but wind chills will make it feel much, much colder.

Overnight low will drop into the low and middle teens, but the Canadian goes even lower:

canadian

The pattern from there can throw some additional winter weather makers our way. The morning run of the GFS went a little crazy:

gfs-2

 

 

 

 

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Winter slowly shows up

Good Friday to one and all. We are dealing with a seasonal start to the month of December, but Old Man Winter looks to start showing up over the next week and change. That’s especially true when arctic air invades the country for the middle and end of next week.

Highs Friday will be between 40 and 45 mph, with a  mix of sun and clouds. Clouds will then thicken up Saturday with similar temps. Those clouds are ahead of a weak system moving in Sunday.

The late weekend system continues to look on the light side, with some rain and snow possible late Saturday night and early Sunday:

nam

The next system rolling in Monday and Tuesday is likely to bring another round of heavy rain. A general 1 to 2 inches will be possible. The GFS is forecasting totals to be a littler higher:

gfs-rain

This sudden change to a very wet pattern is the buffer between the dry and warm setup of the past several months, and the big change to winter coming next week.

That change happens as an arctic front works across the state Wednesday and early Thursday:

gfs-2

That should be complete with a major drop in temperatures, gusty winds and some, at least, snow showers and squalls behind the front. Temperatures behind this front will stay in the low and middle 20s for highs with lows dropping into the low teens. Wind chill numbers in the single digits, anyone? 🙂

Just look at the definition of the arctic air mass behind this front:

euro-2

That’s a lot of cold air that will then continue to hang tough across much of the country into next weekend. This should happen as a southern stream system rides eastward underneath.

Make it a great day and take care.

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Colder weather moves in

Good Thursday to one and all. December is off and running with much colder air pushing into the region. This is the beginning of what looks to be a much colder than normal month shaping up for much of the country.

Highs Thursday and Friday will generally range from 40 to 45 degrees, with overnight lows dropping into the upper 20s and low 30s. There will be just a small amount of moisture that can creep into the northern and eastern parts of the region. This could bring a few sprinkles or snowflakes into those regions.

The GFS shows where it thinks a few flakes are possible through Friday:

gfs

The next system will come at us in two waves. The first arrives Saturday night and Sunday, with some light precipitation. This could start in the form of some rain, sleet or snow. The GFS gives much of the state a chance at seeing the mix:

gfs-3

The main part of the storm will then come at us late Monday and Tuesday. That should bring another round of heavy rain:

gfs-5

A true arctic front is likely to follow that by late Wednesday and Thursday. This is likely to be accompanied by a big storm system, with a secondary low trying to develop somewhere along that boundary as it swings through here.

The Canadian goes wild with that setup:

canadian

For fun, here’s the snowfall forecast from that particular run:

canadian

The chances for snow will be figured out as we get closer, but the amount of arctic air diving into the country is impressive:

euro

Overall, the very cold signal continues to show up on the ensembles for December. Watch out for the air across the country.

Have a great day and take care.

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Strong to severe storms possible Tuesday night

Good Tuesday evening, folks. Another storm system is about to affect the weather across Central and Eastern Kentucky. This could bring some strong to severe storms our way overnight into early Wednesday.

The Storm Prediction Center has placed  much of the central and south central parts of the state in a marginal to slight risk of severe weather:

The damaging wind potential is far and away the greatest threat, but there may be just enough spin for a tornado or two in the south.

In addition to the severe threat, heavy rainfall might cause some local high-water problems.

I have the blog all set to track the action:

Wednesday’s risk area

Latest Day 1 convective outlook

Current watches

Current Watches

Possible watch areas Current MDs

Have a great evening and take care.

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