Chris Bailey's Kentucky Weather Just another Blogs weblog Fri, 26 May 2017 12:10:39 +0000 en-US hourly 1 Severe weather for Memorial Day weekend Fri, 26 May 2017 05:50:24 +0000 Continue reading ]]> Good Friday, everybody. Memorial Day weekend is the unofficial kickoff to summer, but severe storms are going to try and steal the show. We have an increasing risk of severe weather and flash-flooding over the next few days.

Before the storms get in here, much warmer air arrives Friday, with highs in the upper 70s and low 80s. Humidity levels also will increase, and this could spawn some strong to severe storms Friday evening and into the night.

Here’s what you need to track this action:

The severe storm threat increases Saturday and Sunday as a series of storms roll across the Commonwealth. These storms are likely to contain damaging winds, large hail and a few tornadoes.

The Storm Prediction Center has the entire state in the risk area for Saturday:

In addition to the severe storm threat, flash-flooding might become a player. Our ground is pretty much soaked and can’t hold much more, but heavy rain of a few inches is possible. That would lead to some high-water problems.

Make it a great day and take care.

Ugly weather before more storms Thu, 25 May 2017 05:29:55 +0000 Continue reading ]]> Good Thursday to one and all. We have a very ugly weather day taking shape across our region. Rounds of showers and low temps will be noted out there, then we focus on the holiday weekend, which is likely to feature additional severe weather.

Highs Thursday will struggle into the 60- to 65-degree range, with showers and gusty winds. Locally heavy rainfall is possible across north central parts of the state.


Friday will bring much warmer air into town, with readings heading toward 80 degrees. A storm or two is possible by the time we get into Friday evening.

The severe weather threat will increase Saturday and Sunday as rounds of storms rumble in:

This is a significant signal showing up for severe weather and flash flooding. Look at the GFS rain forecast for Saturday and Sunday:

There’s the potential for some rough-and-tumble weather this weekend, so stay alert in the coming days.

Much cooler air then comes in behind all this for the first half of next week. Check out the deep trough in the east:

That trough hangs tough as warm air develops across the Deep South. That’s likely to set up a battle zone on top of us, with additional clusters of showers and storms:

Some of the model runs are really putting it down over the next 10 days:

Have a great day and take care.

Wet weather rolls back in Wed, 24 May 2017 06:33:10 +0000 Continue reading ]]> Good Wednesday to one and all. We have a very wet couple of days blowing into the Bluegrass State. The rain and storms will also pack a pretty cool punch for this time of year. Yay … said no one ever.

It’s all part of a busy pattern that will keep storms cranking through the Memorial Day weekend.

Wednesday’s showers and storms will be ahead of a potent system moving from south to north across the Ohio Valley. This could even touch off a few strong storms:

Highs Wednesday will generally be in the mid- and upper 60s.

Thursday’s weather looks much cooler, with highs in the low 60s as good as it gets in some areas. We might even see some areas struggle to get out of the upper 50s. Ouch.

Friday will find warmer weather moving in again, with highs in the mid- and upper 70s. Some late-day thunderstorms will be possible to begin the long weekend, which will be filled with rounds of showers and storms:

Those storms could be strong and could cause some local high-water problems. Highs should range from 75 to 80 through Memorial Day.

After Memorial Day, much cooler air looks to return:

This pattern is stuck on repeat, and we just have to deal with it.

Make it a great day and take care.

More storms on the way Tue, 23 May 2017 05:02:48 +0000 Continue reading ]]> Good Tuesday, folks. We just can’t seem to catch much of a break between stormy setups. Another extended period of thunderstorm chances is on the way to the region, and this will likely carry us through the Memorial Day weekend.

Let’s start with today and roll forward. Highs will be from 75-80 in most areas with isolated showers and storms possible. The greatest chance is across the southeast:

Showers and storms will then increase for Wednesday as a potent storm system works into town. A few strong storms are even possible:

Much cooler weather with wraparound showers will be likely into Thursday. Highs may really struggle, and a few areas may struggle to get into the 60s:

Thermometer readings will then jump back into the 70s for Friday and may flirt with 80 over the Memorial Day Weekend. That’s the good news. The bad news? Rounds of thunderstorms will likely come calling:


Saturday and Sunday

Memorial Day

It might be a good idea to have a holiday weekend plan B just to be safe. 😉

Enjoy your Tuesday and take care.

Another busy week of weather Mon, 22 May 2017 05:17:04 +0000 Continue reading ]]> Good Monday, everyone. We are rolling our way toward the big Memorial Day holiday weekend, and our weather pattern looks very active. This comes with some big temperature swings and more in the way of … wait for it … wait for it … rain and storms.

Highs Monday are in the upper 60s and low 70s, with a mix of sun and clouds. The lower-than-normal temps will make for a great-feeling day.

Highs quickly rebound for Tuesday as the numbers approach 80 on a strong southwesterly wind. This is ahead of a storm system working in for the middle of the week. This might have strong storms ahead of it and cool showers behind it:

How cool can things get for Thursday? Here’s hoping the GFS is just messing with our emotions:

Temps will surge again by Friday into the start of the big weekend. That might come with a stormy price, with rounds of showers and storms showing up:

Another system can bring some storms early next week, followed by another shot of below-normal temps.

Let’s take a look way down the weather road and see what one of the seasonal models has to say. The JAMSTEC model has had a pretty decent track record in recent years, so I wanted to see how it was looking for the rest of the year.

It has a warm look for June through August:

You can see a small area of normal temps from the Midwest into the northern Ohio Valley, but’s that’s a pretty warm signal.

That warm signal then begins to really cool by fall. Take a look at the September-through-November temps:

What about the winter ahead? A very cold signal is showing up on the model for December-through-February:

The progression of the seasons above is typical of an emerging weak El Nino, which looks likely to develop this year.

As mentioned, the JAMSTEC has been on a “hot” streak and correctly nailed this past winter’s warmth. Here’s the forecast issued from last May:

Not too bad.

Have a great day and take care.

A much cooler week ahead Sun, 21 May 2017 05:52:05 +0000 Continue reading ]]> Good Sunday to one and all. Showers and storms continue to press across the state, as a much cooler air mass gets ready to move in. This will set the stage for a very cool week of weather, taking us into the Memorial Day weekend.

Highs Sunday are in the upper 70s, with widespread showers and storms. Locally heavy rains will have to be watched, especially across the east. Here are your tracking tools for the day:

Hamburg Area from WKYT Studio

Much cooler and drier air then moves in for Monday, with highs in the upper 60s to low 70s. The day looks very pleasant, but much cooler than we should be for this time of year.

Did someone say much cooler for this time of year? Those numbers will drop later this week as much of the eastern half of the country sees a pretty cool air mass coming in:

That’s coming from a big upper level low, spinning right on top of our region. Highs for a few days might not make it out of the 60s. Winds will be gusty, with showers around:

Bottom line: there’s some ugly on the way from Wednesday to Friday.

Temps will rebound some for Memorial Day weekend, but another cold front could arrive for Memorial Day. That could bring showers and storms and another push of cool air.

Have a great Sunday and take care.

Tracking some storms into the weekend Fri, 19 May 2017 05:24:24 +0000 Continue reading ]]> Good Friday to one and all. Our muggy and very warm pattern rolls on, with showers and thunderstorms jumping into the mix. This action will increase this weekend and could bring some hefty rain totals.

Let’s begin with Friday. Highs will top out in the middle 80s, with scattered storms. Any of these storms can be on the strong side with small hail and torrential rains.

I have you set to do some Friday storm tracking:

Hamburg Area from WKYT Studio

Saturday looks rather similar to what we have out there Friday, with scattered storms and muggy temps. Once again, any storm could be strong, with heavy rainfall.

Sunday will see tropical moisture arriving from the south. This will collide with a cold front moving in from the west. This could give us widespread showers and storms, putting down heavy rain:

Some of the forecast models are spitting out some pretty hefty rain totals through Sunday night:

The GFS:

Keep in mind, individual thunderstorms could drop a few inches of rain in no time flat!

The rain moves away for a much cooler Monday, with highs in the upper 60s and low 70s. The dry weather won’t last for long as another round of strong storms zips in late Tuesday and early Wednesday. That’s being pushed by a very ugly-looking system upstairs:

We may see a day or two with highs in the 60s because of that. Ouch.

Make it a great day and take care.

Storms set to increase Thu, 18 May 2017 04:43:35 +0000 Continue reading ]]> Good Thursday to one and all. We are rolling into a steamy and stormy setup for the next several days. This will lead to the increasing threat of some heavy rain-producing storms this weekend.

Highs on Thursday are again in the middle 80s for much of Central and Eastern Kentucky, with an increase in humidity. Watch for some isolated storms:

Storm chances will increase for Thursday and Friday as a weak front moves in from the northwest. This slams the brakes on and gives us an increased chance of some strong storms and heavy rain:

Deep tropical moisture then gets drawn into the region ahead of a cold front Sunday. Local severe storms are possible, but the torrential rain threat is something we need to watch:

Dry and cool weather then moves in for Monday, but the dry part isn’t going to last long, as this active pattern rolls on. Watch this big dip in the jet stream and how long it lingers:

That setup can lead to additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms next week and, potentially, into Memorial Day weekend.

Make it a great Thursday and take care.

Steamy temps before some storms Wed, 17 May 2017 04:54:30 +0000 Continue reading ]]> Good Wednesday, folks. It’s another day straight out of the middle of July, as highs climb well into the 80s. Humidity is likely to slowly increase, and this will lead to an increase in showers and storms in the coming days.

Highs Wednesday range from 85 to 90 in most of Central and Eastern Kentucky. Skies will stay mostly sunny with a gusty southwesterly wind:

Hamburg Area from WKYT Studio

Thursday will see highs again in the 80s with an increase in humidity, leading to isolated storms. This action will then increase into Friday:

Friday looks like a very muggy day with some locally heavy downpours. A similar setup looks likely for Saturday, before things ramp up Sunday. This happens as a cold front moves into the region, colliding with abundant moisture streaming in from the Gulf. The result will be widespread showers and storms:

Looking beyond the weekend, another ugly setup is possible for the middle and end of next week. Check out this slow-moving upper level system working across the region:

That could give us similar conditions to what we had around here in the days leading up to the Kentucky Derby.

Have a great day and take care.

Summer temps continue Tue, 16 May 2017 05:24:55 +0000 Continue reading ]]> Good Tuesday, folks. We have a few days of toasty temps upon us across the Bluegrass State. This small July preview isn’t going to hang around long, as stormy weather blows into town later this week.

Highs Tuesday will generally be in the mid- and upper 80s for much of Central and Eastern Kentucky. Skies will stay mostly sunny, so enjoy!

Hamburg Area from WKYT Studio

I like Tuesday’s weather so much, I’m going to replay it again for Wednesday.

If you’re wondering about record highs, those are probably safe. In 1962, Lexington was in the middle of one the hottest May periods on record, with daily highs in the low 90s. Ouch.

A few storms will start to fire up by Thursday, but a greater threat of storms will be on Friday and Saturday:

More storms will then develop Saturday night and Sunday as a cold front drops in from the northwest:

Any storm late this week into the weekend can be strong and put down heavy rainfall numbers.

Much cooler air then swings in behind our storm system for next week. Check out the cooler shots showing up on the GFS:

That also looks like a fairly active setup for showers and thunderstorms through the end of the month.

Have a terrific Tuesday and take care.