A different pattern this week

Good Monday to one and all. We have a much different pattern taking shape across the region for the week that’s kicking off today. It’s one that we have to watch the tropics for a possible impact on our weather in about a week or so.

Let’s begin with where we are today and roll forward. Highs will be back in the 80s with humidity levels coming down a bit. There’s still the chance for a few storms going up, especially across the eastern half of the state.

Here are your tracking tools for the day:

Tuesday is mainly dry, but a stray storm may still pop up.

We have a weak cold front marching in here late Wednesday, bringing a line of showers and storms with it. That action will hang around into early Thursday as temps come down just a bit. The temperature slide potential continues to wane as we watch for a possible tropical system in the Gulf. If you’re a regular reader of the blog, you know that tropical systems can significantly alter a pattern in our part of the world.

The likely Gulf system will develop from a non-tropical piece of energy diving southeast from the Tennessee Valley. The National Hurricane Center continues to track this well:

Once into the Gulf, we will have to wait and see how much it can strengthen and where it decides to go. The European Model continues to ramp it up and take it toward the central Gulf Coast by next weekend:

From there, the model then brings it back to where it all started:

That would certainly make for one interesting scenario for a system to do that kind of a loop, but it’s certainly possible.

Have a great day and take care.

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Changes for the week ahead

Good Sunday to one and all. We have one more day of steamy and stormy conditions before some changes settle in. This will bring a slightly better brand of air to start the week, but the tropics may become active and impact our weather late week or next weekend.

Let me begin with what’s shaking out there today. Scattered storms and steamy temps. That pretty much sums it up.

Better weather will be in store for Monday and Tuesday as mainly dry skies take control. Even then, an isolated shower or storm will be possible, but most stay dry.

A cold front drops in here later Wednesday and Thursday, bringing showers and storms back in here. That will also have a drop in temps behind it.

Since last week, I’ve been talking about the pattern being conducive for a tropical system in the Gulf Of Mexico. That scenario is looking more and more possible later this week into the coming weekend… With a twist. The disturbance responsible for this potential development is actually working out of western Kentucky and Tennessee and heading toward the Gulf.

Some tropical systems that develop close to the United States actually came from a non-tropical entity from land. Obviously, those make the transition to tropical and that’s what we are looking for in the week ahead. The National Hurricane Center is now highlighting this threat:

The European was the first model to jump on board with this system and continues to show a central Gulf Of Mexico hit by Friday or Saturday:

The model continues to bring what’s left of that toward Kentucky…

The GFS is even going toward this scenario:

To review… A system from Kentucky heads toward the Gulf and tries to become a tropical system. That may come ashore along the Gulf coast then head back toward where it started… Kentucky. Pretty wild, huh? Let’s see how this thing actually plays out in the coming days.

Once again, I leave you with your thunder tracking tools:

Current watches
Current Watches

Possible watch areas
Current MDs

Have a wonderful Sunday and take care.

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A familiar theme this weekend

Good Saturday, everyone. Our recent pattern has been one featuring rounds of showers and storms amidst periods of sun and steamy temps. Given that fact, it should come as no surprise that our weekend is full of more of the same. 🙂

Storms will develop in clusters and a few can be strong or locally severe. With so much moisture in the air, torrential rains are likely with today’s storms and that may cause local flash flooding. It’s NOT going to rain all the time and some of us may not see very much. I’ll have your tracking toys in a bit.

Showers and storms will be around on Sunday, with the greatest emphasis across the southern and eastern parts of the state.

A leftover shower or storm is possible on Monday and Tuesday, but the pattern should feature mainly dry weather. Highs come down a bit.

The setup for later next week features a cold front dropping in late Wednesday and Thursday, bringing more showers and storms in here from the northwest. Notice how that system moves in through as something tries to develop in the Gulf:

We will have to wait and see what happens with that system to determine what happens around here next weekend.

I leave you with your Saturday edition of the storm tracking toys:

Current watches
Current Watches

Possible watch areas
Current MDs

Make it a great day and take care.

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More storms for the weekend

Good Friday, everyone. Our 4th of July is now behind us, but the holiday weekend is still alive and well. Unfortunately, the threat for thunderstorms is still alive and well. Boomers will continue to blow up on occasion over the next several days.

Storms are scattered early on today but will increase this afternoon and evening. A few strong or locally severe storms are possible with high winds the main thing to watch for. These storms are also loaded with lightning and torrential rains that can cause local flash flooding.

The forecast for Saturday and Sunday is for more of the same. It won’t rain all the time, but when it does, it’s gonna come down hard.

We may see a break in the action early next week as temps and humidity levels come down a bit. The setup for later next week is going to try to put a trough in the eastern part of the country, but the tropics may have something to say about that.

The setup looks to be conducive for something to form across the southeast or in the Gulf of Mexico. The European Model is now latching on to that idea and even tries to bring the leftovers toward our region:

If that happens, it would make it harder for a tough to really dig in here, but could mean something for us to watch from the tropics.

Once again, I leave you with your daily dose of storm tracking toys:

Current watches
Current Watches

Possible watch areas
Current MDs

Have a fantastic Friday and take care.

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Mother Nature throwing a fireworks show

Good Thursday and Happy 4th of July! We have another steamy and stormy day in the making as we celebrate this Independence Day. These storms are going to be constant, but we will see a few storms trying to cause some issues.

The pattern remains largely unchanged as we hit this holiday period. Showers and storms come at us in waves and some of these can be strong or severe. Damaging winds and hail are the primary concerns from the stronger cells.

These storms are also loaded with lightning and torrential rains that can cause a few more flooding problems for some.

On the flipside, it’s NOT going to rain all the time and you will get many dry hours each day. Here’s hoping those dry times include parades, fireworks and cookouts. 🙂

Here are your Independence Day tracking tools:

Current watches
Current Watches

Possible watch areas
Current MDs

Have a great 4th and take care.

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Booming storms continue across Kentucky

Good Wednesday, folks. It’s the day before our Independence Day and we continue to track rounds of showers and thunderstorms across our part of the world. This is a trend likely to continue into the big day and beyond.

Clusters of showers and storms will increase this afternoon and evening. Just like what we had on Tuesday, some of the storms may be strong or severe and put down a ton of rain. Here’s the current Severe Weather Outlook from the Storm Prediction Center:

Damaging winds and large hail are the main severe weather threats today. These same storms can drop a few inches of rain in under an hour, so watch for flash flood issues.

What you see today is what you’re going to continue to see through the 4th of July holiday weekend. Strong storms and flash flooding issues are possible each and every day, so please keep that in mind. Some of our 4th of July parades, fireworks shows and cookouts may be impacted by the storms. Have a backup plan to be safe.

Cooler air likely comes in behind that into next week and this is a trend that’s showing up on most of the operational models and then ensembles. It’s also showing up on the seasonal models like the CFS:

Here’s the same model for the final week of July:

How about the first week of August? Well…

That has been a very consistent signal for a while, so we will see how that goes.

I leave you with your July 3rd tracking toys:

Current watches
Current Watches

Possible watch areas
Current MDs

Have a great day and take care.

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Storms look to increase

Good Tuesday to one and all. Our busy 4th of July holiday period is about to kick off at the same time rounds of thunderstorms increase. This action could mean Mother Nature plays a part in some of the parades and fireworks shows. Shocker, I know!

As always, let us begin with today and roll forward. Scattered showers and storms will be noted and any storm that goes up could be strong and put down torrential rains. I will have your tracking tools in a bit.

The threat for strong to severe storms looks to increase as we make our way into Wednesday. You can see that threat on the Severe Weather Outlook from the Storm Prediction Center:

Our 4th of July looks to feature scattered storms going up, with the potential for a few waves of stronger storms to work across the state. This isn’t all day rains, but the storms are likely to play a part in some of the parades and fireworks shows.

This pattern will continue through the rest of the holiday weekend. Rounds of thunderstorms can be strong and put down heavy amounts of rain from time to time. The models are still spitting out some hefty totals through Sunday:

Cooler air likely comes in behind that into next week.

Over the past week, I’ve posted some seasonal models for your amusement. As we look at some additional seasonal models that take us through the rest of summer and through fall and winter, we find a familiar theme. The CFSv2 is usually a very warm biased model across North America, so to see a lot of normal or cool showing up is very interesting.

Here’s how the model sees the three month period from July through September:

You can see a lot of normal to cooler than normal showing up in the means. As the model goes out farther in time, it becomes more generalized, but you can see a continuation of this setup for the fall ahead…

The winter that follows appears to suggest a big ridge along the west coast with a trough in the east…

Again, that’s an interesting signal considering the model is typically warm biased for most of North America.

I leave you with the Tuesday edition of your storm trackers:

Current watches
Current Watches

Possible watch areas
Current MDs

Have an awesome day and take care.

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A few storms to kick off July

Good Monday, folks. July is off and running with more of the same, but the stormy weather looks to increase as we head into the long holiday weekend. This kicks off another fairly stormy period in our part of the world.

Our Monday will feature scattered showers and storms going up. Just like the past several days, any storm that goes up may briefly go severe, bringing hail and high winds. These storms will also put down torrential rains that can lead to some high water issues.

Here is the July first edition of your storm tracking toys:

Current watches
Current Watches

Possible watch areas
Current MDs

The shower and thunderstorm action looks to increase in the coming days and that should roll right on through the 4th of July weekend. Storms will come at us in waves, with the potential to put down quite a bit of rain. Here’s the GFS rainfall forecast through Sunday:

Let’s add the next week’s worth of rain to the mix:

Those are some hefty two week rain totals, but that no longer comes as a shock to anyone living in this region.

Have a great start to the new month and take care.

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A few storms to end June

Good Sunday to one and all. We are putting the wraps on an incredibly wet month with more in the way of scattered storms around. This continues to be part of a rather stormy pattern that looks to continue into our big 4th of July holiday week.

Let us begin with today and roll forward. High temps are in the normal upper 80s to around 90, but the humidity levels will make it feel more like 90-95 at times. Scattered showers and storms will go up, but we will need to watch the northwestern sky for a few clusters of storms. A few of those may be strong or severe.

Here’s today’s Severe Weather Outlook from the Storm Prediction Center:

Damaging winds and hail will be the primary players with any strong or severe storm that blows up. As always, these storms will also be loaded with lots of lightning (LOL) and torrential rains. The heavy rainfall may be enough to cause high water issues on a local scale.

Additional rounds of showers and storms will target the region over the first few days of July. No, it’s not raining all the time and not everyone sees a lot of rain over the next few days. But, you know the drill with these storms.

The 4th of July and long holiday weekend looks to feature an uptick in showers and storms. Check out the European Model…

I leave you with the Sunday edition of your storm tracking tools:

Current watches
Current Watches

Possible watch areas
Current MDs

Make it a great day and take care.

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More steam and storms this weekend

Good Saturday and welcome to the weekend. Steamy temps and scattered thunderstorms are the name of the weather game as we get set to close out the month of June. With the 4th of July holiday just around the corner, it looks more of the same, with an increase in the thunderstorm threat.

Let’s begin with where we are today and trudge forward. Highs are back into the upper 80s to around 90 for much of central and eastern Kentucky. Throw in the humidity and the heat index tops out from 90-95 degrees.

Just like the past few days, thunderstorms go up this afternoon and evening and could put down torrential rains. A few of the storms may briefly be strong or severe. Here are your Saturday storm tracking tools:

Additional showers and storms will be noted on Sunday and Monday, but this action may try to dive in from the northwest:

Some of those storms could bring a better wind damage threat to the region.

The setup for our 4th of July week will keep the rounds of showers and storms going across the entire region:

Obviously, that kind of setup can cause some disruptions of some of our Independence Day celebrations throughout the bluegrass state.

Behind all that, there continues to be a signal for a trough digging into the eastern half of the country:

That would bring some steam relief to the region into the second week of July.

Make it a great day and take care.

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