A winter pattern takes over

Good Monday to one and all. We are coming off frigid weather from the weekend, but you ain’t seen nothing yet. This is a week of weather that would do the middle of January proud and is complete with near-record lows and some snowflakes.

We have a system crossing the region Monday with gusty wind and mainly rain showers. As that system pulls to our east this evening, much colder air swings in, with some wet snow mixing in.

The system moving across Kentucky will join forces with a monster of a storm off the East Coast late Monday night and Tuesday. Before that happens, let’s keep an eye on Eastern Kentucky to see whether some dynamic cooling could produce a band of wet snow Monday evening. Most of that will be in West Virginia, but it might be a pretty close call.

From there, the monster along the east coast turns into a blizzard, shutting down the mid-Atlantic to New England. This is a travel nightmare, with some areas picking up close to 2 feet of wind-whipped snow.

Northwesterly winds should produce some snow showers and squalls around here late Monday night through Tuesday night.

It’s possible for that to put down some light accumulations and cause slick spots across the region. Winds will be gusty, and it’s going to feel frigid because it will be frigid, and not just for us. Below-freezing lows all the way into Florida:

For us, near-record lows are possible Wednesday and Thursday. The Canadian model continues to be the coldest of the bunch:

Even if we add a few degrees to those numbers, that’s a big old case of ouch! Our premature start to spring is going coming back to haunt us in a major, major way. This is some big-time trouble for growers and green thumbs.

Looking down the road, another system dives in this weekend and could bring another shot of ugly:

Have a magnificent Monday and take care.

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A frigid week ahead

Good Sunday to one and all. We are wrapping up a super cold weekend across the region and this is just the beginning. Temps this coming week have a shot of threatening record lows. Throw in a snow chance or two and you have a forecast straight out of January.

It’s been interesting to see my twitter feed lighting up with snow pics out of Tennessee. As expected, this system stayed largely to our south and is bringing more snow to the Carolinas than many of us have seen the entire winter. Think about that one for a moment.

The focus then turns toward another system ramping up by Monday and Tuesday. This will turn into a major east coast winter storm, but should only bring some wraparound snow showers and squalls our way:

Temps behind this system are crazy cold for this time of year and have a shot at challenging a few record lows. The Canadian has handled similar shots well this winter, and goes to the extreme:

Hoping for a quick snap back to spring? That’s probably not happening. Check out the end of the week into the following weekend:

Make it a sensational Sunday and take care.

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A winter looking pattern develops

Good Saturday to one and all. We have a very cold weather pattern sweeping into the region and this is going to put a big hurt on all those early blooms. It’s a pattern that can also throw some winter weather threats our way.

The first threat comes to southern Kentucky later today into tonight. The best chance for light snow will be in Tennessee, but some lighter snows can graze southern parts of the state. Farther north? Maybe some flakes.

Earlier this week, I talked about three scenarios with this upcoming system. One was the cold crushing the storm system to our south and that’s exactly what is happening. This system will bring more snow (by far) to Tennessee and the Carolinas than what we get in Kentucky. That’s happened a few times this winter.

Hard freezes are likely this weekend with lows dropping into the upper teens and low 20s. Highs on Saturday will be in the 30s with upper 30s and low 40s by Sunday.

This takes us into our next potential winter weather maker for early next week. The setup is likely to form a major winter storm along the east coast:

That’s a monster showing up on the European Model. It also shows up on the GFS:

That setup can bring snow to our region from Monday night through Tuesday night, especially as northwesterly winds kick in.

The cold associated with this storm is ugly. The teens get all the way into north Georgia:

I would love to say we snap out of this pattern and go back to nice weather, but that doesn’t look to be the case. Additional ugly weather shows up late next week into the following weekend:

That’s a very ugly look!

Make it a great day and take care.

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A winter pattern settles in

Good Friday to one and all. We have a true winter pattern taking shape as we head into the next week or so. This pattern will be complete with much colder than normal weather and snow chances.

Let’s start with today and roll forward. Highs will be much colder with readings in the 40s this afternoon as sunny skies return.

This cold air really ramps up tonight with lows dropping into the low and middle 20s. This is a hard freeze!

The snow system zipping across the Tennessee Valley later Saturday into Saturday night will target southern Kentucky with some snow. The bulk of the action will fall in Tennessee, but the chance to see some light snow:

The Lexington area and areas north, may not see much at all.

One of the scenarios I mentioned a few days for the cold air to be so strong it crushed the storm south. That’s the case this weekend with hard freezes likely.

I also talked about the next system moving in right behind that. This one has a chance to dig and form a major eastern US winter storm and is the one that’s had me intrigued for a while now.

The European Model:

Look at the crazy cold engulfing the region as this storm cranks up:

The GFS goes absolutely nuts with this system:

Again… I am very intrigued by this setup for early next week.

For all the green thumbs… forget about it. There’s not a whole lot you can do over the next week. This isn’t going to be a night or two of a hard freeze, it’s going to be about every night. Lows can drop deep into the teens on more than one occasion.

Have a great day and take care.

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Tracking winter weather for the weekend

Good Thursday, folks. We are dealing with a gorgeous March weather day out there, but big changes are lurking for the weekend. A winter storm system will target parts of the state this weekend, with more winter weather on tap for early next week.

Let’s start with the good then focus on the bad. Highs on Thursday range from 65 to 70 with a mix of sun and clouds and gusty winds.

Clouds will quickly increase Thursday night as showers develop ahead of a strong cold front. That zips in early Friday with the potential for a snowflake to mix in:

Afternoon skies will clear, with highs in the 40s.

Our weekend system continues to target the southern half of the state.

The current runs of the European and GFS models are similar, with the greatest chance of snow across southern Kentucky into northern Tennessee. Here’s the European model:

The GFS is similar, although just a smidge farther north compared to its earlier run:

We aren’t done with winter after the weekend. This next system diving in late Monday and Tuesday continues to get my attention. This can put some snow on the ground for many people:

Make it a great day and take care.

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All eyes on the weekend

Good Wednesday to one and all. We have a much better weather day taking shape out there, but it’s all eyes on the weekend forecast. A developing storm system might bring a round of winter weather our way by Saturday and Sunday.

In the short term, things look really good Wednesday, with highs in the upper 50s to low 60s. Skies will stay partly cloudy.

Thursday looks even better, with highs hitting the 60s. Winds will be gusty ahead of a system zipping quickly across the region by Friday. That’s mainly a chilly shower-maker, but it does usher in much colder air.

That is on the leading edge of an arctic air mass spreading out from west to east across the northern half of the country. At the same time, very warm air is taking up residence across the South and Southwest. That leads to a storm system to develop across the Plains states, along the boundary:

That system will then roll eastward by Saturday and Sunday. The exact path of that low will, obviously, mean all the difference in the world for our weather.

If this thing takes a track across the Tennessee Valley, look out. That could deliver a big winter storm for our region. If it comes farther north and right across the state, that winter storm is off to our north. There’s also the chance the cold is stronger than the models show, crushing the storm system into something rather wimpy.

The European model shows a farther south and slightly weaker scenario:

The snowfall map from the European model shifts the focus on snow potential into the southern half of the state:

The average snowfall from 21 different members of the GFS ensembles:

So, let’s slow our roll a bit and wait to see the path of the low become better defined. That will be the difference between zero snow or a lot of snow where you live. Both extremes are, at least, a possibility.

Have a great day and take care.

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Winter tries to fight back

Good Tuesday, everyone. Showers and thunderstorms are rumbling across the region, but the focus of the forecast takes a turn toward winter by the weekend. The Old Man is trying to fight his way back into the picture.

Tuesday’s showers and storms will be accompanied by very gusty winds as a cold front passes through. Some of those gusts could top 40 mph during the afternoon.

Seasonal temps then move in for Wednesday, with highs in the 50s. We should return to highs in the 60s by Thursday as winds gust up ahead of another system moving in.

That system moves in Friday, with gusty showers and a big drop in temps coming behind it. This allows very cold air to engulf the northern half of the country, while the South stays warm.

This puts Kentucky on an area of potential winter weather as low pressure works from west to east across the region.

The first system of interest actually moves in early Friday. This introduces a much colder brand of air to the region from north to south. While it’s mainly a chilly shower maker, the models now show some flakes trying to get in:

The main storm system then follows that up Saturday night into Sunday. The models currently show the track of this storm from west to east across Tennessee. If that is indeed the track, this would put Kentucky into a swath of significant winter weather. Again… that’s IF the track is across Tennessee. If the track is farther north, then you know the drill. Farther south, and you know the drill.

Here’s the afternoon run of the GFS:

That is certainly something for us to keep a very close eye on in the coming days.

Have a great day and take care.

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Here comes another cold front

Good Monday, everyone. We have a cold front pressing toward the state, and it will give us an increase in rain chances through Tuesday. This front continues to be part of an overall active spring setup.

After a super-mild Sunday, temps should come down some Monday due to more clouds and scattered showers. Highs should range from the middle 50s in areas getting the showers to the low 60s for areas getting in on the dry.

Monday’s showers are the opening act to a stronger line of showers and storms blowing in Tuesday. This action is just ahead of a cold front dropping in from the northwest:

Seasonally cool air moves in behind that for the middle of the week, but another system can bring in some showers by Friday. This is ahead of a more potent storm taking aim at our region this weekend. This one could bring some hefty rainfall to the region:

This pattern favors a big temperature gradient setting up from north to south across the country. Some big storm systems have been known to work along that gradient, leading to a lot of active weather. The Bluegrass State appears to be in this zone.

Have a great Monday and take care.

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Another active setup on the way

Good Sunday to one and all. We are wrapping up the weekend with absolutely gorgeous weather across central and eastern Kentucky. Enjoy it, because things will turn stormy again in the coming days.

Today really looks like a winner of a weather day with highs into the 60s with a 70 in the west. Skies stay mostly sunny before some high clouds filter in during the evening.

Those clouds are with part of a mild and moist southwesterly wind flow that should spit out a shower or thunderstorm on Monday:

GFS

This action is ahead of a potent cold front dropping in here on Tuesday. A band of showers and thunderstorms will be along and ahead of the front, and some of the storms could be strong:

GFS 5

Temps turn seasonal for a few days for the middle of the week, but milder southwesterly winds kick in by the end of the week into the weekend. The look on the models is now more toward what the GFS and GFS Ensembles were showing… Mild.

That mild air can also mean a scattered shower or thunderstorms and gusty southwesterly winds:

GFS 6

The setup by late weekend and early the following week is getting my attention as a potential severe weather maker. The signal has been there for a few days and continues to show up pretty well:

GFS 4

This is not a good setup going into the spring severe weather season!

Enjoy the day and take care.

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Tracking milder air into the region

Good Saturday and welcome to the weekend. We are coming off a cold few days across the state, but things are ready to turn milder this weekend. This back and forth temperature pattern continues to crank and shows no signs of letting up in the week ahead.

Highs today range from 50 in the east to the low and mid 50s across central Kentucky. Skies will be partly sunny.

Highs on Sunday surge into the 60s with a mix of sun and clouds. Winds look gusty and this air is ahead of another cold front due in town by Tuesday. It will bring us the threat for a shower or storm as early as Monday.

A line of showers and storms will then sweep in with the front on Tuesday:

Euro

Seasonally chilly air moves in behind that system, but the European Model now takes on a full blown winter look by Friday and Saturday:

Euro 2

Check out the cold air with that system:

Euro 3

Ouch.

That’s part of the whole back and forth temperature pattern on the European Model. Check it out:

Euro gif 3

The control run of the European Ensembles supports the cold pattern for next weekend:

Euro 5

The GFS Ensembles are not buying what the European Model is selling. It’s MUCH warmer:

GFS TEMPS 1

Have a great Saturday and take care.

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