Another round of severe storms possible

Good Sunday and Happy Father’s Day. Tropical Depression Bill is now well off to our east, but the threat for active weather remains. We have the potential for strong and severe storms this afternoon through the evening.

Before we talk about that, let’s do a brief recap on the impact of our tropical system on our region. Some talking points:

– Bill was still a tropical depression as it crossed Kentucky… Some 4 days after making landfall in Texas. That’s incredible.

– This was the first Tropical Depression to make it all the way into Kentucky since 3 storms did it back in the busy 2005 hurricane season.

– This was one of the only times on record the center of circulation of a tropical system passed over the Lexington metro.

– Lexington picked up 2″-4″ of rain from Thursday through Saturday. Officially, Saturday gave us the wettest June 20th on record with 1.8″ of rain.

Moving on to where we are today. Clusters of strong and severe storms will move in here from the northwest this afternoon and evening. Damaging wind is the primary threat from these storms. These storms should also pack a ton of lightning and torrential rain.

This looks to be the beginning of another stormy setup across Kentucky. The week ahead will feature heat and humidity with daily rounds of storms trying to crank:

GFS

A strong cold front looks to sweep in here by Friday and Saturday with some potent thunderstorms. That also should be the beginning of a MUCH cooler period. Check out the big dip in the jet stream showing up next weekend…

GFS 2That setup looks to continue into the final days of June and into early July…

Euro 3

I have you all set to track today’s severe weather threat:

Today’s risk area

Latest Day 1 convective outlook

Current watches

Current Watches

Possible watch areas Current MDs

 

 

Have a great day and take care.

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Heavy rain and storms tracker

Good Saturday, everyone. The remnants of Tropical Storm Bill continue to push right on top of us today. This is causing rounds of showers and storms that can put down a ton of heavy rainfall across our region.

Here’s a breakdown of what to expect:

– The remnants of Bill will work into central Kentucky this morning and then roll through the rest of the state this afternoon.

– Spiraling bands of rain and storms will likely show up around the center of this system. The atmosphere looks tropical from top to bottom and that means heavy rains

– A general 1″-4″ rain looks likely across much of the state through Saturday night. Totals can be higher under directly under the core of that system.

– If there is some sunshine ahead of this system… a brief tornado can’t be ruled out.

– Once this system moves to our east, we really will have to watch for clusters of strong and severe storms moving in from the northwest. That looks to be the case from late Sunday into early next week. Those same systems could bring additional high water concerns.

– The next week to two weeks of weather could bring some major rainfall numbers to our part of the world.

I have you all set to track today’s tropical troubles:

 

 

Today’s risk area

Latest Day 1 convective outlook

Current watches

Current Watches

Possible watch areas Current MDs

Stay safe and have a great day.

Take care.

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Flash-flood threat

Good Friday, everyone. Torrential rains have been common across our region over the past few days. This is laying the groundwork for the possibility of flooding and flash flooding into the weekend.

What’s left of Tropical Storm Bill will work into Western Kentucky on Friday evening and push across the rest of the state Saturday, and it could bring a deluge with it. I’ve highlighted the areas at greatest risk for seeing at least some flooding problems:

Special 2

That doesn’t mean everyone in those areas will see enough rain to cause flooding, but it shows the areas with the highest threat.

Rainfall numbers through Saturday night should range from 1 to 4 inches, with locally higher amounts. I wouldn’t be surprised to see some spots come in much higher than that. Tropical system leftovers can be prolific rain producers, so be on guard for possible flooding.

In addition to the high water concern, any storm could have some very gusty winds with it.

The action doesn’t stop once Bill blows through. The setup from Sunday through Tuesday is one that can deliver rounds of severe thunderstorms diving into the region from the northwest. Those could also be big-time rain producers. There’s a chance we see that pattern last most of next week.

Bottom line: A lot of rain is going to fall across our region over the next week.

As always, the blog is set to be your one stop shop for tracking the action:

 

 

Friday’s risk area

Latest Day 1 convective outlook

Current watches

Current Watches

Possible watch areas Current MDs

Make it a great day and take care.

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Tropical rains on the way

Good Thursday, folks. It’s another day of scattered showers and storms that could be a little on the strong side. The main threat comes later Friday and Saturday in the form of the leftovers of Tropical Storm Bill.

That system is loaded with tropical moisture and could bring some very heavy rains to parts of our region. The map below from one of our computer models shows the deepest moisture:

GFS

That’s basically showing the core of the system rolling right on top of the state late Friday through Saturday. That could really ramp up the high-water potential and is something to keep a very close eye on.

Temps stay steamy into Sunday, as highs push 90. Rounds of storms might try to fire up and dive at us from the northwest into early next week:

Special1Later next week, temps take off and could reach the low and middle 90s for a few days.

In the meantime, let’s get back to our regularly scheduled storm tracking program:

 

 

Thursday’s risk area

Latest Day 1 convective outlook

Current watches

Current Watches

Possible watch areas Current MDs

 

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Rounds of strong storms before ‘Bill’

Good Wednesday to one and all. Rounds of strong to severe thunderstorms made their way across the region on Tuesday. That’s the start of a very busy weather pattern across Central and Eastern Kentucky. The pattern could be capped off by heavy rain from the tropical storm formerly known as Bill.

A cold front is stalling out across the region and will fuel additional clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms Wednesday and Thursday. Damaging winds and large hail will be the primary severe weather players.

Any storm will also have a tremendous amount of lightning and put down torrential rainfall. Local high water problems will be possible during this time.

What’s left of Bill will then work toward Kentucky by Friday and Saturday. Many of the forecast models bring this system into our region with some very heavy rainfall:

CanadianThat is something for us to keep a close eye on as we inch closer to the weekend. In the meantime, let’s keep an eye out for strong and severe storms Wednesday. I have you all set with your daily dose of storm trackers.

 

 

Wednesday’s risk area

Latest Day 1 convective outlook

Current watches

Current Watches

Possible watch areas Current MDs

Make it a great day and take care.

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An increase in showers and storms

Good Tuesday, everyone. A weak cold front is working into the region and will increase the development of showers and storms. This action might get a serious boost later this week as the remnants of a tropical system try to move our way.

The weak front is dropping into the region Tuesday afternoon and will crank out rounds of showers and storms. These storms will work from west to east and could put down some very heavy rains.

I have you all set to track whatever is out there:

 

 

Tuesday’s risk area

Latest Day 1 convective outlook

Current watches

Current Watches

This same setup is likely to stay with us Wednesday and Thursday. Highs during this time will generally run in the upper 80s, with the 90 an occasional possibility. High humidity will make it feel even warmer.

Our focus then turns to what happens with the leftovers of Tropical Storm Bill in the Gulf.  Here’s a breakdown:

– This system will roll ashore across Texas and then slowly work northward through the Mississippi River Valley.

– That should then turn the corner and work due east into our region. Where that turn occurs is still in question.

– Areas along the path of that system will have to deal with some very heavy rains that could lead to high water.

– Will that include Kentucky? Stay tuned.

Have a great day and take care.

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Our tropical feel continues

Good Monday, everyone. It’s another week of steamy air and scattered storms across our part of the world. Our tropical feel might get a little jolt later in the week by a true tropical system trying to pop in the western Gulf of Mexico.

In the near term, it’s all about the hot and humid weather, with a few boomers. Highs Monday should reach the upper 80s and low 90s in most areas. If you have more sun than clouds where you live, this might be the hottest day of the year so far.

Scattered storms will be floating around during the day, but that action might increase Monday night and Tuesday. The future radar from the NAM shows this increase:

NAM

Some strong storms will be possible Tuesday and Wednesday as our action picks up a bit. During that time, we have to focus on the potential tropical system coming our way. That system comes ashore in Texas and then works northward through the Mississippi River Valley and into the Ohio Valley. Heavy rainfall should be common along that track.

Tropics

Does that include Kentucky? That’s the million-dollar question I have to answer over the next day or so.

After that, the longer-range models show a dip in the jet stream across the eastern half of the country. That could allow for cooler air to move in by early next week:

Euro 3

I leave you with your tracking tools for the day:

 

 

Monday’s risk area

Latest Day 1 convective outlook

Current watches

Current Watches

Possible watch areas Current MDs

Make it a great Monday and take care.

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More of the same

Good Sunday, everyone. Think of our current weather pattern as the summertime version of the movie “Groundhog Day”. Every day seems to be the exact same as the day before with scattered storms and steamy temps.

This setup is expected to continue for a few more days before something from the tropics tries to shake things up a bit.

Let’s start with where we are today and roll forward. Highs on this Sunday should be back into the mid and upper 80s for many. A few thermometers may tickle the 90 degree mark with enough sunshine. Scattered storms will be around the region and some of these can put down some very heavy rainfall.

Here’s what you need to track your Sunday of weather:

 

 

Similar weather will be noted on Monday, but I can see temps being the hottest of the entire period. With enough sunshine, some low 90s would be possible. High humidity levels will make it feel much, much warmer. We will all sweat it out together!

A tropical system is trying to develop in the western Gulf of Mexico. Whatever comes of this, the models take that system and work it up the Mississippi River Valley and into the Ohio Valley. That could bring a swath of heavy rains our way.

Check out the forecast from the Canadian Model:

Canadian

That’s something for us to keep an eye on as we head into the new week.

Have a great Sunday and take care.

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Storms set to increase

Good Saturday and welcome to the weekend. Showers and thunderstorms will continue to fire up this weekend, and really kick into high gear next week. This increase in storms may have a tropical connection.

Temps will continue to run on the steamy side with upper 80s to around 90 for highs. Scattered showers and storms will be floating around today and Sunday. Locally heavy rains are the main players.

Storm chances blow up next week as our moisture starts to really come at us from the Gulf Of Mexico. That shows up well on the Canadian Model:

Canadian

That could lead to some very heavy rains next week. Several of the forecast models are spitting out amounts greater than 2″. We will have to just wait and see how that all plays out.

In the short-term, I have you all set to track whatever storms are there.

 

 

Today’s risk area

Latest Day 1 convective outlook

Current watches

Current Watches

Possible watch areas Current MDs

Make it a great day and take care.

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Scattered storms join the heat and humidity

Good Friday to one and all. The heat continues with a big increase in humidity. This muggy air will carry us through the next week, at least. That same air also will become more favorable for scattered showers and storms.

A few of those might occur Friday, as highs run in the mid- and upper 80s. Areas that get more sun than clouds could flirt with the 90-degree mark.

Those scattered storms will continue Saturday and Sunday:

GFS

Rounds of storms will increase a bit as we head into next week. Those storms could deliver some heavy rains from the Plains states into the Ohio Valley. The tropical setup comes all the way from the Gulf of Mexico:

GFS RainHave a great Friday and take care.

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