Bitterly cold for November

Good Tuesday to one and all. It’s about as cold as it can possibly get this time of year in the Bluegrass State. Temperature records might fall in many areas as a few snow flurries continue to fly.

The records for Lexington look like this:

Low: 12 (1959)

Lowest high: 24 (1903)

We have a chance to break both of those Tuesday, and that’s nothing short of incredible. As a matter of fact, Tuesday should be the coldest November day we’ve had since Nov. 30,1976. That year went on to produce a brutal winter across our part of the world.

Today’s tracking tools:

Current temperatures

Wind chills might drop below zero Tuesday morning and hit single digits at times in the afternoon.

Another weak cold front will drop in from the northwest Wednesday night, and that might bring a band of light snow and flurries:

NAM

That takes us toward a mild thaw for the weekend as a big storm develops in the Plains and lifts to the north. This could be a big wind- and rainmaker in our region later in the weekend. The European Model then crushes the warm-up with colder air returning by Monday:

Euro

Colder-than-normal air returns for Thanksgiving week with this type of a setup:

Euro 3

If the European Model is correct with that setup, more wintry weather would be possible over the holiday weekend.

Have a great day and take care.

Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off

Arctic cold surging in

Good Monday afternoon. Record snows fell on much of the Bluegrass State overnight and Monday morning. Additional snow showers and squalls will fire up in the afternoon as arctic cold surges in from the northwest.

The temperature might drop all the way into the upper single digits and low teens Monday night. Records could fall. The wind chills will be brutal Tuesday morning:

GFS

I’ve never seen numbers like that this early in the season. Never.

Let’s get back to tracking:

Current temperatures

Hamburg Area from WKYT Studio
Lexington

I-75 @ Winchester Road Lexington

I-75 @ Winchester Road

I-75 @ Clays Ferry Bridge South Between Lexington and Richmond

US 60 @ US 127 Frankfort

US60 @ US127

US 127 @ Frankfort Frankfort

US127 @ Frankfort KY

US 60 @ US 460
Frankfort
US60 @ US460

I-75 MP 127
Georgetown
I75 NB @ MP 127

I-64 MP 97
Winchester
I-64 WB @ MP 97

I-71/I-75 at Buttermilk Pike Near Covington

I-71/I-75 @ Buttermilk Pike

I-71/I-75 at Mt. Zion Rd.
Near Covington
I-71/I-75 @ Mt. Zion Rd

I-64 @ 3rd St. Exit Louisville

I-64 @ 3rd St. Exit

Downtown Louisville @ 2nd & Broadway Louisville

Downtown Louisville @ 2nd & Broadway

I-264 @ Freedom Way
Near Louisville International Airport
I-264 @ Freedom Way

Take care.

Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off

Tracking a major shot of winter weather

Good Monday, everyone. We’re tracking a big blast of winter weather across Central and Castern Kentucky. Snow will accumulate across much of the region early Monday. Arctic cold will follow with what amounts to a harsh January pattern in the middle of November.

But first, some headlines:

– The areas of heaviest snow will fall from the Bluegrass region into the northern and western parts of the state. Don’t be surprised to see a few 4-inch or 5-inch reports north and west of Lexington. Amounts across the south and east will be much lighter. There will be a sharp dividing line from the heavy snow to the lighter snow. This sets up across Central Kentucky.

– Arctic air surges in later Monday afternoon and evening. Snow showers and squalls will kick in and could cause some additional accumulations in some areas.

– Near record or record low temperatures will be likely Tuesday. Lows might drop into the high single digits in some areas, and highs will struggle into the low 20s. Record low high temps will be possible.

– Winds will be very gusty through Tuesday, and that might create dangerously low wind chills. I’ve never seen these kind of numbers before this early in the season:

GFS Temps

– That might be on the extreme end of the envelope, but wow!

That’s all for now, but please post the weather conditions where you live, and I will stop by later with some updates.

I leave you with a ton of tools:

Current temperatures

Hamburg Area from WKYT Studio
Lexington

I-75 @ Winchester Road Lexington

I-75 @ Winchester Road

I-75 @ Clays Ferry Bridge South Between Lexington and Richmond

US 60 @ US 127 Frankfort

US60 @ US127

US 127 @ Frankfort Frankfort

US127 @ Frankfort KY

US 60 @ US 460
Frankfort
US60 @ US460

I-75 MP 127
Georgetown
I75 NB @ MP 127

I-64 MP 97
Winchester
I-64 WB @ MP 97

I-71/I-75 at Buttermilk Pike Near Covington

I-71/I-75 @ Buttermilk Pike

I-71/I-75 at Mt. Zion Rd.
Near Covington
I-71/I-75 @ Mt. Zion Rd

I-64 @ 3rd St. Exit Louisville

I-64 @ 3rd St. Exit

Downtown Louisville @ 2nd & Broadway Louisville

Downtown Louisville @ 2nd & Broadway

I-264 @ Freedom Way
Near Louisville International Airport
I-264 @ Freedom Way

Have a great day and take care.

Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off

Winter Weather Advisory

Good afternoon, folks. Things continue to progress nicely toward a significant blast of winter to impact our region over the next couple of days. I’ve seen nothing today that would make me think differently about how things play out. Of course, a few changes will have to be made to tighten up the snow numbers and placement. That’s always the case as we get closer to an event.

Much of the region is under a Winter Weather Advisory with a WINTER STORM WARNING out for northern and western Kentucky:

Warnings

Again, the winter weather won’t impact the Lexington metro until very late tonight and Monday morning.

Current temperatures

Another update comes later today. Take care.

 

Posted in Uncategorized | Comments

Tracking a winter storm into Kentucky

Good Sunday, everyone. Winter weather has been common across the region over the pasts several days. We’ve had rounds of light snow and flurries and record cold temps. Now we track a developing winter storm into the bluegrass state. This system promises to bring accumulating snows to several areas.

Let’s start things out with a look back at record cold from Saturday. My tweets do the talking:

Here’s a look at what I expect from our storm system moving in today and Monday:

– Our day will start with a period of light mix and some snow with the first wave of precipitation. Light accumulations are possible.

– Temps warm toward 40 this afternoon and early evening as another round of precipitation moves in. That will be in the form of rain for central and eastern Ky with a mix in the north and west.

– That will make the transition to snow from west to east tonight. That’s when the Lexington area will begin to see snow breaking out. That would then carry us into early Monday.

– Areas across the east and southeast will mainly see rain with a change to light snow on Monday.

You can see this progression well on the GFS:

GFS

– This is a very tough call on the snowfall because I expect a very sharp gradient to set up across central Kentucky. Here’s my best shot at the moment:

Special 2

– Those numbers and lines are certainly NOT set in stone and may get pushed around some with future updates.

– Wraparound snow showers and squalls will then become common late Monday into Monday evening. That will be on the nose of some VERY cold air moving in. Record lows will be very possible by Tuesday morning when a few spots threaten to reach the single digits. Highs Tuesday may not get out of the low and mid 20s.

Some early day tracking toys:

Current temperatures

Hamburg Area from WKYT Studio
Lexington

I-75 @ Iron Works Pike Lexington

US 60 @ US 127 Frankfort

US60 @ US127

I-75 at MP 36 London

I-75 @ MP 36

I will have updates later today so check back.

Make it a great Sunday and take care.

Posted in Uncategorized | Comments

Saturday Evening Update

We continue to watch a developing winter storm for Sunday night and Monday. This is likely to bring accumulating snows to much of the region. A heavy swath of snow  looks to set up from southwest to northeast. Exactly where that band sets up is the forecasting headache I face.

This is going to be one of those storms that a matter of a few miles makes all the difference between a small amount of snow and a thumping. Here’s another attempt to hone in on the areas that have the best shot at 4″ or more of snow…

Special 2

The latest European Model snow forecast isn’t too far away from that…

Euro

That’s a heck of a gradient between a lot of snow and a little snow. The same model run follows the trend of bringing Tuesday morning single digit lows to those with snow on the ground…

Euro 2

Record lows will be possible with temps struggling into the low 20s for highs. Snow showers and squalls will be around on Tuesday and those can drop some light accumulations into the eastern half of the state.

Another system looks to bring wintry weather our way by the end of the week into the weekend.

Before we get to all that… a batch of light snow and flurries will roll our way this evening and tonight. This could bring some action into parts of the region with the greatest concentration across the north.

Take care.

Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off

Snow threat increasing for Sunday night

Good Saturday, everyone. Arctic cold air continues to keep us in the deep freeze and that deep freeze is about to be joined by some of the white stuff. A winter storm will target parts of the bluegrass state Sunday night and Monday. That means accumulating snows look to be a good bet for many.

Let’s start with today and look ahead.

The day is starting with frigid temps in the mid and upper teens for many areas. Clouds will roll in with highs back in the 30s.

A weak system moves closer to the region tonight and could bring a few snowflakes into town. Most areas would see only flurries, but a band of light snow can’t be ruled out in the far north.

Current temperatures

The next system is the one that could bring a rare November snow day to parts of the region. It develops across the deep south Sunday afternoon and will throw moisture our way. That moisture arrives from southwest to northeast late in the day and may start in the form of light rain or a mix of rain and snow.

A band of moderate to heavy snow would then set up shop across central Kentucky from Sunday night into Monday morning. Areas that get under this band could pick up several inches of snow. Here is where that band looks to set up at the moment:

SPECIAL 2

All of that could change as this storm comes into better focus later today and Sunday. The band of heaviest snow could shift around some as the track of the low becomes established.

The air following this storm could break records by Tuesday and Wednesday. Several models are forecasting single digit lows if we have snow on the ground:

GFS TempsHighs on Tuesday may not get out of the low 20s with snow showers and squalls continuing.

Overall… this is about as wintry as you will ever find it around here for the middle of November.

I will have additional updates later today. Take care.

Posted in Uncategorized | Comments

Friday evening update

Good Friday evening, gang. Friday was a record-setting day in Lexington. Our high reached only 32 degrees, and that’s the lowest high temperature ever recorded on this date. The old record of 34 was from way back in 1906. Wow!

From here, it’s all eyes on the late weekend storm system. This has the potential to drop accumulating snows on much of the region. Here’s a look at my First Call For Snowfall:

SPECIAL 2

That map is likely to change some as we get closer to the event and the track of the low becomes more apparent.

Record cold might follow that by Tuesday.

Have a great evening and take care.

Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off

Winter weather late this weekend

Good Friday, everyone. The November version of arctic air is firmly in place across Central and Eastern Kentucky. This air is leading to some flurries and snow showers to start the day, but I’m more focused on the potential for winter weather late this weekend.

That’s when a storm system rolls up the eastern slopes of the Appalachian mountains. That could throw accumulating snows into our region. More on that in a bit.

Temps Friday will start near 20, with wind chills in the low and mid-teens. Flurries will then give way to a mostly cloudy afternoon sky, with highs in the low 30s.

Current temperatures

Saturday will find clouds pushing back into the region ahead of a weak system working into the Ohio Valley. This might have just enough juice to produce light snow and flurries from Saturday evening into Saturday night.

The bigger storm system will affect the region late Sunday and Monday. The high-resolution GFS continues to show accumulating snowfall:

GFS Snow 2

Here’s my very early call for the areas that have the most likely chance of seeing accumulations:

SPECIAL 2

That could all change depending on the track of the low. I hope to have a first call for snowfall out later Friday or Friday night. Again, that’s a system more than 48 hours away, so a lot can change.

The air coming in behind that is frigid. Check out what one of the models is spitting out for Tuesday morning lows:

Those numbers would give us a shot at record cold by Tuesday or Wednesday.

I will have another update later Friday. Have a great day and take care.

Posted in Uncategorized | Comments

Thursday evening update

Good evening, all. Rounds of light snow and flurries continue to fly across Central and Eastern Kentucky. A few spots could pick up a sugar coating as the evening wears on.

Temps continue to run in the 20s, and the air in Lexington is now colder than in Barrow, Alaska:

 

Ouch! If you’re a fan of winter, you have to love this early-season pattern. I’m still tracking the potential for some accumulating snow late Sunday and Monday. A full update comes your way later Thursday night.

Take care.

Posted in Uncategorized | Comments Off