Heavy rain on the way

Good Sunday to one and all. We have had one of the driest falls on record across the state, but that’s about to change in the coming days. Heavy rain is on the way, and could total more than the past two months worth combined.

Clouds will increase today with afternoon highs in the upper 40s and low 50s. These clouds are ahead of a potent storm system set to impact our region later Monday into early Tuesday.

This system will bring heavy rain from west to east. My thoughts have not changed on this at all. Central and western Kentucky can pick up 1″-2.5″ of rain, with an inch or under in the east.

The next system developing along that front from Tuesday night into Wednesday is being handled differently by each model.

The European Model has the heaviest rain with this across the central and east:

euro

Rain totals for both systems on the Euro:

euro-2

The Canadian Model on has a similar look with the second system:

canadian

The GFS is much more progressive, but that’s a well known bias of the model:

gfs

Adjust that westward and you have a similar look with every piece of data.

A few snowflakes may show up on the backside of that system as colder air crashes in here from the northwest. As we get closer to the first few days of December, the models are indeed growing colder and colder:

euro-3

That’s the setup from Thursday-Saturday with the seasonally cold air taking full control of the pattern. That’s a setup that can throw some snow showers and flurries our way, especially as winds become northwesterly.

Have a sensational Sunday and take care.

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Rounds of rain on the way

Good Saturday to one and all. Chilly temperatures roll on as we edge closer and closer to the end of our long Thanksgiving holiday weekend. As the weekend wraps up, we will start to focus on the potential for heavy rainfall moving into the region.

Highs today will be in the low and middle 40s in most areas as clouds will be slow to clear. If you’re heading to the tree lightning in downtown Lexington at 6:30, plan on temps dropping into the upper 30s.

Clouds will increase on Sunday ahead of two storm systems moving in here early next week. The first arrives Monday and lasts into early Tuesday, and should bring a lot of rain and wind:

euro

We catch a windy and mild break Tuesday afternoon, but the next system then rolls in here by Tuesday night and Wednesday. The exact track of that is still up in the air, but odds favor this moving just to our east, with another round of heavy rain for the central and east:

euro-2

A general 1″-3″ of rain is possible for the entire state from Monday through Wednesday. For many, that would be more than we’ve had for the past 2 months.

There’s even a chance we close that out with a few flakes flying Wednesday night as colder air moves in to start December. This is a seasonally cold air mass for Thursday and Friday:

euro-3

Another system is going to try to come underneath that cold air by the weekend. That could result on rain and snow:

gfs

Looking deeper into December, the CFS continues to deepen the cold across the country:

cfs

Coast to coast cold isn’t that common across the country. But the latest blocking pattern suggests that’s a real possibility.

Make it a great Saturday and take care.

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Chilly weather settles in

Good Black Friday to one and all. On this super duper busy shopping day, we have a seasonal chill that fills the air. That is likely to stick around through the weekend, as we await a big storm system early next week.

Friday will feature lots of clouds and some patchy drizzle, with highs hanging in the 40s:

Hamburg Area from WKYT Studio
Lexington

Saturday will feature a lot of low clouds lingering throughout the day. Areas of patchy drizzle or sprinkles will be possible. Highs might stay closer to the 40-degree mark in many areas:

namIf you’re heading into downtown Lexington for the annual tree-lighting early Saturday evening, plan on a cold one, with temps dropping into the upper 30s.

A couple of big storm systems take aim at the region the first half of next week. These can deliver a lot of wind, rain and a few thunderstorms. The rainfall could be heavy:

canadian

From Wednesday on, the models indicate the potential for some wintry weather trying to kick in as we start December.

Speaking of December, some of the seasonal models for the month are showing some big cold invading the country:

cfsHave a great Friday and take care.

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Thanksgiving weather headlines

Good Thursday and Happy Thanksgiving! Just as many folks hit the roads over this busy holiday travel period, rain moved into the region. Much of that will wind down Thursday, but a lot of clouds will be hanging tough.

Highs Thursday will range from the upper 40s in the north to the mid-50s in the south. Overcast skies might try to brighten later in the day, but the clouds will be tough to clear out. Isolated showers are also possible:

Hamburg Area from WKYT Studio
Lexington

I-75 @ Winchester Road
Lexington
I-75 @ Winchester Road

I-75 @ Iron Works Pike
Lexington

I-75 @ Clays Ferry Bridge South
Between Lexington and Richmond

US 60 @ US 127 Frankfort

US60 @ US127

US 60 @ US 460
Frankfort
US60 @ US460

US 60 @ Chenault Road
Near Millville
US60 @ Chenault Road

I-75 MP 127
Georgetown
I75 NB @ MP 127

I-64 MP 97
Winchester
I-64 WB @ MP 97

Mountain Parkway near Slade

I-71/I-75 at I-275
Near Covington
I-71/I-75 @ I-275

A weak front drops in here Friday evening with gusty winds, but no precipitation. This sets the stage for some more clouds and a seasonal chill for Saturday. There is some indication northeastern Kentucky might struggle to get much past 40 degrees.

big storm system is going to crank across the Plains states and should send heavy rain and wind our way by Monday and Tuesday.

euro

That system is impressive and one we will need to keep a close eye on. High winds and local high-water problems are possible across the region.

As that storm wraps up, another will come under it by Wednesday. That’s the last day of November, and it could take on more of a winter look. Here’s a snapshot of the current models:

European model

euro-2

GFS

gfs

I don’t think any models are handing that situation very well because there is soooo much energy coming through.

Happy Thanksgiving and take care.

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Tracking rain to start Thanksgiving travel

Good Wednesday to one and all. The long Thanksgiving travel period is kicking off with rain moving into the region. This will kick off a very active weather pattern that can deliver a lot of action to our region over the next week.

Wednesday’s rain has an outside shot at starting out as a touch of sleet across the northern parts of the area. With temps above freezing, nothing will come of that. The greatest chance of rain arrives Wednesday afternoon and evening. I will have all your holiday travel tracking tools in a bit.

Leftover showers will be possible into Thanksgiving, and a lot of clouds will hold tough through the rest of the holiday weekend.

A weak front arrives late Friday with gusty winds and just a small chance of showers. Seasonally chilly air blows in for Saturday:

gfs

The next system really winds up from late Sunday into Monday and will throw a lot of rain and wind our way ahead of it. As it cranks up to our north, temps crash into early Tuesday with a mix possible behind that:

euro

You can already see the next system gathering steam across the Texas Panhandle. That one could be more of a winter weather-maker by next Wednesday and Thursday.

There is just so much going on with these systems diving in that the models are going to show some wild swings over the next few weeks. Look at the amped-up upper levels for next week:

gfs-3

All of this fits the blocking pattern setting up.

Your tracking tools for the day:

Hamburg Area from WKYT Studio
Lexington

I-75 @ Winchester Road
Lexington
I-75 @ Winchester Road

I-75 @ Iron Works Pike
Lexington

I-75 @ Clays Ferry Bridge South
Between Lexington and Richmond

US 60 @ US 127 Frankfort

US60 @ US127

US 60 @ US 460
Frankfort
US60 @ US460

US 60 @ Chenault Road
Near Millville
US60 @ Chenault Road

I-75 MP 127
Georgetown
I75 NB @ MP 127

I-64 MP 97
Winchester
I-64 WB @ MP 97

Mountain Parkway near Slade

I-71/I-75 at I-275
Near Covington
I-71/I-75 @ I-275

I-275 at Mineola Pike
Near Covington
I-275 @ Mineola Pike

I-275 approaching KY 20/Airport
Near Covington
I-275 East of KY 20/Airport Exit

I-65 MP 32

Downtown Louisville @ 2nd & Broadway
Louisville
Downtown Louisville @ 2nd & Broadway

I-64 @ I-264
Louisville
I-64 @ I-264

I-264 @ Freedom Way
Near Louisville International Airport
I-264 @ Freedom Way

I-75 at MP 36
London
I-75 @ MP 36

I-75 at MP 23
Corbin

I-75 @ MP 23

I-24 MP 7 @ US 62
Paducah
I-24 MP 7 @ US62

I-65 MP 36
Near Bowling Green
I-65 MP 36

Make it a great day and take care.

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Thanksgiving weather breakdown

Good Tuesday to one and all. The busiest travel period of the entire year is about to begin, and we have some rain ready to roll into the region. This is all part of a very active weather pattern taking shape over the next few weeks.

We have nice weather out there Tuesday, with highs in the mid-40s north to low 50s south. A few clouds will be on the increase.

Our rain-maker arrives quickly from west to east late Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. If that can get in here quick enough, I could see a few areas of sleet across Northern Kentucky. The latest rainfall forecast from the GFS shows close to an inch of rain in the west and north through Thanksgiving morning:

gfs-rain

Most of that rain moves away by noon on Thanksgiving, but another fast-moving system moves our way by late on Black Friday. The models keep going back and forth on whether this can deliver some precipitation to our region. The latest GFS says yes:

gfs-2

That will deliver gusty winds and a much colder day for Saturday.

The late Sunday and Monday storm system continues to look stronger and stronger as we get closer:

gfs-3

While mainly a rain- and wind-maker, there’s a chance we could get some snowflakes on the tail end of that.

The stronger that storm is, the better the chance the one coming in after it takes a farther south and east track as we close out November.

Here’s the GFS showing rain and snow:

gfs-4

The European model:

euro

Make it a great Tuesday and take care.

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Thanksgiving week weather breakdown

Good Monday to one and all. As hard as it is to believe, Thanksgiving week is upon us, and our weather pattern is looking a little unsettled. We have several systems to track during this time, so let’s get after it.

Things start off nice enough Monday with lows in the upper teens and low 20s this morning, and highs in the 40s.

Tuesday will feature similar conditions, but highs will be up a few degrees.

That brings us to the busiest travel day of the year: Wednesday. The day before Thanksgiving looks a little wet across our (turkey) neck of the woods:

euro-4A lot of the light rain moves away early on Thanksgiving, leaving us with a mix of clouds and sun, with highs in the 40s.

Black Friday shoppers will find a small chance of a shower and highs in the 40s. The latest European model is much more robust with the rain chances, but I’m not buying it right now:

euro-5

Saturday looks seasonally chilly for the tree lightning in downtown Lexington.

As you head back from a long holiday weekend, another system looks to affect our region by Sunday and Monday. This has more of a colder look to it:

gfs-5A much bigger storm might follow that as we close out November and start December. That’s something getting my attention from well over a week away.

On the heels of my winter forecast for a cold December, it’s good to see the seasonal CFS model now trending in that direction:

cfs

Make it a great Monday and take care.

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The winter forecast

Good Sunday to one and all. With our first taste of winter weather pushing across the state this weekend, it seems like a good time to talk about the winter ahead of us. My annual winter forecast is here and calls for another active winter across the bluegrass state.

We are coming off another snowier than normal winter across central and eastern Kentucky. That was mostly because of the monster snowstorm that hit the region in January. That gave us our third straight much above normal snowfall winter in our part of the world.

Last year, the overall weather pattern was dominated by the third strongest El Nino on record. That overpowered the pattern across North America, leading to much above normal temperatures.

This year, it’s a weak La Nina taking shape in the equatorial waters of the Pacific:

winter-1

Those slightly cooler than normal waters have much less of an overall impact on the actual weather conditions across the lower 48. That setup is similar to what we saw during the winters of 1995/ and 1983/84. Both of those winters La Ninas were coming off El Nino winters the year before, with the 82/83 El Nino similar to the powerful one we had last winter.

I’m also seeing warm water setting up again along the west coast into the Gulf of Alaska, with a huge blocking high developing in eastern Canada:

winter-2

Those two are good signals for colder than normal temperatures across a large chunk of the country, including Kentucky:

winter-3

So, here’s what I’m forecasting across central and eastern Kentucky for the winter ahead:

winter-4

In looking at the current pattern, I’m afraid my 1 to 2 degrees colder than normal isn’t quite cold enough. There is some indication that the first half of winter can be substantially colder than my original thinking.

With such a warm fall, the Great Lakes water temperatures are MUCH warmer than normal. With such cold shots of air flowing across the warm lake waters, a lot of moisture may be transported southeastward into our region:

winter-5

Lake Enhanced snowfall is a good bet all the way into the southern Appalachian Mountains this winter.

My thoughts on snowfall for the winter ahead:

winter-6

Those numbers are normal to slightly above normal, as I expect several light to moderate events. That said, it just takes one big snow to severely alter those totals.

Here’s a month by month breakdown:

winter-7 winter-8 winter-9

3 years ago, I issued my first Bold Prediction during my winter forecast.  I got that one right, and have managed to call 3 in a row. Here’s proof from my winter forecast promotion from last week on WKYT:

Can I make it 4 in a row? I certainly hope not because I’m seeing a signal for a decent ice event this winter:

winter-10

As always, I appreciate the time and effort you give to read my daily thoughts here on Kentucky.com .

I will focus on the Thanksgiving week weather with my next update. Have a great Sunday and take care.

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Tracking a small taste of winter

Good Saturday, everyone. Old Man Winter is flexing a little muscle out there this weekend, with much colder air and a few snowflakes. This comes on the heels of a record setting warm Friday for much of the region.

To put all of this in perspective, our “feels like” temperature will be some 60 degrees colder than what we had on Friday. Nothing like a small change among friends. 🙂

Here’s a recap of the weekend:

  • Highs today will be in the upper 30s to around 40 with a few snowflakes flying across central and eastern Kentucky.
  • Wind gusts will be close to 30mph and will make it feel like it’s in the upper 20s.
  • Lows by Sunday morning will be near 20, but wind chill numbers will be well into the teens. Here’s what the NAM is forecasting for Sunday morning:

nam

  • Highs on Sunday will be in the upper 30s to near 40, but winds will continue to make it much colder.
  • Lows by Monday morning will drop into the upper teens and low 20s.

The weather as we roll toward Thanksgiving is looking rather unsettled. Another storm system should bring rain and chilly temps back in here starting Wednesday:

 

I have you all set to track today’s small taste of winter:

Make it a great day and take care.

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From record highs to snowflakes

Good Friday to one and all. It’s the wild, wild west of temperature rides on the way over the next couple of days. Record highs of Friday will drop nearly 40 degrees behind a cold front, giving us the chance for the first snowflakes of the season Saturday.

Friday’s record high in Lexington is 75 in 1985. That should bite the dust as readings top out in the mid- and upper 70s. Winds are going to gust to about 30 mph, and that’s bad news for the forest fire situation across our region. Please take all necessary precautions and abide by local burning restrictions.

Some good news is on the way for Friday night as a band of showers works in from west to east. This can drop some modest rain amounts across the area:

gfs-rain

Now comes the cold behind the front. Watch the drop through Saturday:

canadianWhat about the chance of our first snowflakes? The models show a strong northwesterly wind flow on Saturday and that should usher in a few flakes across the central and eastern part of the state. This isn’t anything more than a novelty, and not everyone will see the flakes.

gfs

Looking toward Thanksgiving, we are likely to find another system ready to affect our region with some chilly showers:

euro

Have a great Friday and take care.

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