Tracking Hurricane Florence

Good Wednesday, folks. We continue to see fairly calm weather across the bluegrass state and that’s a good thing. Our waterlogged bluegrass state needs a long time to dry out. Now, we track Hurricane Florence to see what impact, if any it will have on our weather.

Highs today will generally range from the mid to upper 70s in most areas with a partly sunny sky.

Scattered storms will try to fire back up Thursday into Friday with highs back into the low 80s.

Hurricane Florence continues to roll toward the Carolinas and continues to strengthen:

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The hurricane models are showing the potential for a worst case scenario of a super slow-moving system in the Carolinas:

Notice how many of the members now bring that directly on top of Kentucky by Sunday and Monday. That could still be classified as a depression as it moves in.

The GFS Ensembles are similar:

The new European Model does a strange dance with Florence as it gets ready to come ashore:

Still, it brings that system right on top of Kentucky by Sunday and Monday:

The latest run of the GFS is similar with the southward jog into South Carolina, then heads toward our way:

The same run from earlier Tuesday did not make the south look, but still rolled into our part of the world:

The NAVY Nogaps model is more similar to that run:

As you can see, there is still uncertainty as to exactly how all this plays out, but every model has the remnants of Florence impacting our weather in some capacity.

Make it a great day and take care.

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Dry weather as we wait on Florence

Good Tuesday, folks. We continue to deal with mainly dry weather, with October-like temps for a few more days. As we enjoy the dry weather, monster Hurricane Florence is churning toward North Carolina. This storm has a chance to bring some rain our way this weekend.

Let’s start with the good and that’s the weather out there today. Highs are in the upper 60s to low 70s with a mix of sun and clouds. The clouds, though, may wind up being pretty tough to push around.

Wednesday is a little milder with upper 70s to near 80 with mainly dry skies rolling on. Readings by the end of the week jump back into the lower 80s as we watch what’s happening along the east coast.

Hurricane Florence continues to rapidly intensify as it barrels toward the Carolinas. Here’s the latest specifics and track forecast from the National Hurricane Center:

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Folks, this storm is going to be devastating and will likely go down with some of the all-time greats to this this region. Here’s some more information from the NHC, including the wind forecast:

The European Model continues to show a devastating impact on the Carolinas…

From there, the model takes the remnants all the way into the Ohio Valley this weekend and early next week:

Here’s the rainfall forecast from that particular run:

The GFS has a different look, with a looping storm making landfall in North Carolina then being picked up by the trough sweeping in from the northwest:

The NAVY has more of a European Model look in bringing that system our way:

The impact on our weather is a long way from being set in stone, but the potential is certainly alarming.

Make it a great day and take care.

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From Gordon to Florence

Good Monday, everyone. Record rains feel across much of the region over the weekend as the remnants of Gordon teamed up with a stalled front. Flooding is still an issue for a few this morning, but the focus going forward is on Hurricane Florence.

Let’s start out with where we are on this Monday. Low clouds and some drizzle is possible, with leftover showers in the east. Temps are MUCH cooler with highs mainly in the 60s. Track away…

Scattered showers and storms return for the middle and end of the week as we focus on Florence. This hurricane is going to be a powerful one that heads toward the Carolinas. This may very well be a Cat 4 or 5 hurricane:

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The spaghetti plots from the various hurricane models are in line with that forecast:

The European Model continues to be consistent with a NC hit:

The model continues to stall this system in the Appalachian Mountains and Mid-Atlantic, bringing a devastating flood to many, with eastern Kentucky getting in on some of the action:

The new version of the GFS is similar to what the European is showing:

The soon to be replaced GFS is steal and wandering storm swept out to see by a deep trough:

The Canadian Model is a cross between the old GFS and the European Model:

The NAVY brings this system very far west toward our region:

At this point, I’m not going to bet against. at least, some impact on our weather from this storm.

Have a great Monday and take care.

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Tracking tropical rains across the region

Good Sunday, folks. The remnants of Gordon continue to bring rounds of showers and thunderstorms to our part of the world. Low pressure, formerly known as Gordon, is combining with a cold front to produce some big time rain totals in parts of Kentucky, leading to high water issues.

The showers and storms today come at us in waves. Each wave will have torrential rains and could even produce local high wind gusts. The main issue comes from the heavy rains, so keep a close eye on area creeks and streams. Here are your tracking tools for the day:

Our slow-moving front continues to press across eastern Kentucky into Monday, leading to additional showers and a few storms. Heavy rains may continue to fall in the southeast, especially early in the day. High temps across the state will generally range from the upper 60s to low 70s.

Tuesday and Wednesday will see the chance for scattered showers and storms around as temps head back to seasonal levels. We may get a little above normal again by the second half of the week as Hurricane Florence nears the east coast.

This storm will be a monster and may very well head into the Carolinas during this time. Here’s the latest specifics and track from the National Hurricane Center:

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We still see the models with a very threatening look for the east coast. Some of them continue to show this system impacting our weather by next weekend.

The European Model:

The Euro now stalls that low across the Mid-Atlantic states for several days and waits on a fall trough to dig in and pick it up by day 10:

The Canadian Model brings the remnant low right into our region:

Have a great day and take care.

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Gordon throws tropical rain our way

Good Saturday and welcome to the weekend. Rounds of showers and thunderstorms continue to rumble at us today and will continue for the next few days. This action will increase as the weekend wears on, as what’s left of Gordon throws tropical moisture our way.

Let us begin with today and roll forward.

Showers and storms will be scattered about the region, with steamy temps in between. Any storm that goes up will be able to put down a lot of rain in a short period of time. This action may end up being more widespread in the north and west than what we see in the east.

Here are your tracking toys for the day:

The showers and storms will continue to increase from west to east tonight and into Sunday. This happens the remnant low from Gordon works through the lower Ohio Valley then wraps up as it lifts to the north. That will also drag a cold front slowly across the state. That front will ignite widespread showers and storms and can cause high water issues across central and eastern Kentucky into early Monday. A few of the storms may even be strong.

Monday as a chance to be pretty cool under clouds and showers. Temps may not get out of the 60s in some areas.

Temps rebound with the threat for more showers and storms into the middle and end of next week. That’s when the focus shifts to the east coast.

Florence is going to track toward the east coast and could be a major Hurricane as it approaches the Carolinas by the middle of next week:

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There’s nothing good that can come from the setup.

The models are all over the east coast hit, with some of them taking this far enough inland to influence our weather. The European Model is showing this potential:

The GFS is also a Carolina hit, but it keeps it going up the east coast then back out to sea:

Make it a great Saturday and take care.

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Heavy rain into the weekend

Good Friday to one and all. We continue to deal with tropical moisture streaming into the region, bringing more heavy rains and strong storms. The heavy rain threat increases this weekend as the remnants of Gordon work into the Ohio Valley.

Storms over the past few days have dumped more than 2″ of rain in several areas and we should see more of the same today. The boomers are feeding on the tropical air and will also spit out a ton of lightning. The lightning may cause issues for some of the high school football games.

Here is your Friday edition of the storm tracking toys:

As we roll into the weekend, what’s left of Gordon works into the Ohio Valley and will drag a cold front across the state. Heavy rain producing showers and storms are a good bet through Sunday and even into Monday. The WPC seems to have a good handle with the rainfall numbers showing up during this time…

The greatest threat for flooding across the northern half of the state, but the local flash flood threat is area-wide.

This system will also tug down cooler air with a nice run of highs in the 70s this weekend into early next week. Unfortunately, additional rounds of showers and storms will carry us into next week.

From there, it’s all about what happens with Hurricane Florence:

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This system will roll toward the east coast and may very well impact the coast, but that’s certainly a long way from being a sure thing. The European Model continues to advertise the biggest hit:

Have a fantastic Friday and take care.

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Rounds of storms through the weekend

Good Thursday, folks. Tropical rain producing showers and thunderstorms rolled into the state on Wednesday, kicking off  a very active setup. Torrential rains will fall from the storms that continue through the upcoming weekend as moisture from Gordon kicks in.

Showers and thunderstorms will be common Thursday into Friday as our front settles in, meeting up with the tropical air. That will fire up some strong storms that can put down tremendous rainfall numbers in a short period of time. This will lead to local flash flood issues.

What’s left of Gordon rides into Missouri then scoots eastward into the Ohio Valley over the weekend. That will enhance the rainfall and could deliver some strong to severe storms. Here’s the GFS through early next week:

The European Model is now in the fold, bringing some big rains into our region this weekend:

As what’s left of Gordon departs, a weakness in the atmosphere is left behind. This stretches from our region into the Gulf of Mexico and will serve as a conveyor belt for additional tropical moisture into our region through much of next week:

That can also cause heavy rain issues in our part of the world. You can also see powerful Hurricane Florence approaching the east coast at the end of those maps. Here’s the latest on this major hurricane:

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Look a what the European Does with this:

That takes it to the Mid-Atlantic and then up the east coast. Unfortunately, the GFS is doing the exact same thing:

Moral of the story is a major hurricane may impact the east coast next week

I leave you with your daily dose of storm tracking tools:

Have a great Thursday and take care.

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Moisture from Gordon heading toward Kentucky

Good Wednesday, folks. Our tropical feeling atmosphere is about to go full blown tropics with moisture from Gordon on the way to the region. This means we will need to be on guard for rounds of heavy rain producing showers and storms through the upcoming weekend.

This storm continues to track east of the original forecasts from National Hurricane Center:

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Those folks have been playing catch up to this eastward track all week long and I’m not sure why. Perhaps an over-reliance on some of the hurricane models is to blame.

Regardless, this storm will continue to track east of the forecast track well inland and the operational models have been suggesting this for days and days.

The setup ahead of Gordon will bring a front into Kentucky and slow it down over the next few days. That stationary front will have a lot of tropical moisture to work with, giving us rounds of very heavy rains. Watch for local high water issues from later Wednesday through Friday.

By the weekend, that front is STILL across our region with the remnants of Gordon turning east into the Ohio Valley. The trend is farther south on the east turn. Here’s the GFS:

The Canadian is even farther south and into Kentucky:

The European Model has been awful with this system and it continues to suffer with some MAJOR convective feedback issues. Still, the model is slowly correcting with the inland track throwing heavy rain our way:

None of this is set in stone by any means, but it’s an indication of the increasing heavy rain threat across Kentucky through Sunday.

Behind this system comes much cooler air into the early part of next week.

Here are your storm tracking tools for this Wednesday:

Have a great day and take care.

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Tropical moisture on the way to Kentucky

Good Tuesday to one and all. It’s another hot and humid day across our region, but we are getting ready for some tropical changes in the days to come. A system in the Gulf of Mexico is likely to throw moisture our way as the week wears on. That will increase our rain chances.

Today is another very steamy one with temps in the upper 80s and low 90s. Heat index values will be in the low and middle 90s. A mix of sun and clouds will be noted, but scattered storms try to go up this afternoon and evening.

Here are your Tuesday storm trackers:

Gordon isn’t the most impressive storm ever created, but it has a chance to reach a low end Cat 1 hurricane before coming ashore. That track for landfall is centered around Biloxi, Mississippi, with the inland track continuing to get pushed farther east by the National Hurricane Center:

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The GFS has been smoking many of the other models with the handling of Gordon, especially the European. The latest run of the GFS takes what’s left of Gordon north along and just west of the Mississippi River before turning the corner into the northern Ohio Valley this weekend. Watch how all this tropical moisture interacts with a stalled boundary around our region:

The Canadian continues to trend toward the GFS and is now very close to bringing what’s left of Gordon into western and northern Kentucky this weekend:

What does all this mean for us?

  • Tropical moisture streams in here Wednesday through Friday and interacts with a stalled front. This type of setup can bring some major rain producing showers and storms our way.
  • Humidity levels are going to be absurd.
  • As what’s left of Gordon heads into the northern Ohio Valley this weekend, it will bring another big surge of showers and storms with it. That action will be maximized by a cold front moving in at the same time. This means heavy rain will once again be likely.
  • Throw all this together and you get, at least, some local high water issues possibly developing at some point.

Temperatures behind all this will actually feel pretty good for a few days early next week, but it’s the tropics that will continue to dictate the overall pattern. Florence and a soon to be named system are out in the Atlantic:

Have a great Tuesday and take care.

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Tracking tropical temps and tropical action

Good Monday and Happy Labor Day, folks. Our long holiday weekend has been a steamy and a stormy one, with more of the same likely out there today. This tropical feeling air mass is going to hold all week long as we watch a tropical system develop in the Gulf. That may impact our weather by the weekend.

Let’s begin with your holiday and roll forward. Highs today are in the upper 80s and low 90s with humidity levels making it feel hotter than that. Just like the past several days, scattered showers and storms will develop into the afternoon and evening.

Not everyone will see the action, but those that do can get in on some gusty winds and heavy rains. Here are your holiday storm trackers:

Tuesday’s weather looks and feels a lot like what we have out there today, so just sweat and bear it. 🙂

At the same time, a tropical system is developing and rolling into the Gulf of Mexico. This is likely to become Gordon later today or Tuesday and should head toward Louisiana. Here’s the latest from the National Hurricane Center:

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The GFS has been ahead of the curve in taking that system toward Louisiana, while other models were bowling that system due west. Most have been correcting toward the GFS in recent days and I suspect that trend to continue, even in the NHC forecast.

Can this system bring moisture into Kentucky? The short answer is yes!

As this system is slowly coming into the southern Mississippi Valley, a front will be moving into our region and likely become stationary. That should be able to draw up some of the moisture from Gordon to be, and may eventually get whatever is left of the storm to roll toward the Ohio Valley:

How that all plays out remains to be seen, but it’s something for us to watch closely as we go through the rest of the week.

Have a wonderful Labor Day and take care.

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