Cold fronts take center stage

Good Monday, everybody. Another fall cold front is rolling across the state today and is ushering in a blast of seasonal chill. A much stronger front then targets the region by the end of the week, bringing the potential end to the growing season.

Temps out there today are generally in the 70s ahead of our front as a strong southwest wind kicks in. As the front moves through this evening, a gusty band of showers and thunderstorms works in with it.

Here’s your regional radar o track the action:

Pockets of mid and upper 30s will show up Tuesday morning across north-central Kentucky, especially. The rest of the day and into Wednesday will be super nice.

Things change in a hurry starting late Thursday as a massive trough dives in here from the northwest. This is a powerhouse of a cold front that ushers in a wintertime looking setup from Friday through much of next week.

We are likely to get two systems delivering the cold air. As mentioned, the first arrives late Thursday with the next one at some point this weekend or into Monday. The models vary a bit on this from run to run.

The GFS is now back to showing the potential Ohio Valley flakes:

This is something the Canadian has been showing a while and continues to do so, albeit a little different:

We will see how all this plays out, but some big model bounces are likely because there is so much energy diving into this highly anomalous trough. One thing is for sure, it’s cold and likely ends the growing season with temps that can reach the 20s on more than one occasion. The 7 day average temp departure from the GFS starting this Friday:

Again, that’s a 7 day average departure and that’s absurd for the middle of October.

By the way, the GFS Ensembles continue to indicate the potential for flakes over the next 2 weeks:

We shall see, but 4 of the past 8 Octobers have featured the first flakes of the season. Anyone scoffing at the potential should probably do some weather research on the climatology of this region.

Have a great Monday and take care.

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A busy week follows the tropical rain

Good Sunday, everyone. It’s a soggy day across areas of central and eastern Kentucky with the heaviest rains falling in the southeast. Once this system clears us, it’s game on toward a robust pattern featuring several cold fronts dropping in next week.

Again, today’s rainfall is heaviest across the south and southeast, but most areas get in on some of the soggy. Areas across the north will see the lowest totals and the most dry hours.

Here are your Sunday rain tracking radars:

Monday is a very windy day as a fall cold front slams in from the west during the evening. This brings a broken line of showers and storms with it:

Temps in the 70s will be noted ahead of the front, but will quickly drop as the boundary blasts through:

Some very nice weather then follows this up for Tuesday and Wednesday as we watch an even colder blast of air show up by the end of the week into the weekend. This should bring an end to the growing season for much of our region as a HUGE dip in the jet stream shows up right on top of us. At times, various models have been trying to deepen this trough enough to spit out some flakes very close to the state.

The Canadian is the latest model to do just that:

That actually does bring some flake action in here. The EURO is close, but doesn’t quite get there:

That’s some very cold air for this time of year, but it dives in and out as a more stronger and more prolonged change dives into the Rockies and plains. This is a straight up winter looking pattern that, I think, has a a shot at bringing the threat for flakes in here late the following week. Does this look like something from October?

The European doesn’t go out as far as the GFS does so it only picks up the first system being shown above. However, the EURO is farther east with that first system:

The GFS Ensembles snow map for the next 2 weeks is picking up on flake potential:

The past 3-4 years, we were essentially in a repeat pattern of weather with all those years being very similar. This summer and fall have finally broken the mold. This is especially true of the early fall which has been the opposite of last fall and much different than recent years, too. This is likely to carry over into, at least, the early part of winter.

Have a great day and take care.

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Tracking heavy rain from Delta

Good Saturday to one and all. Gusty showers are on the move as tropical moisture streams out ahead of what’s left of Hurricane Delta. The remnant low from this system winds up right on top of the state late Sunday, bringing heavy rain and some thunderstorms.

Here’s a quick breakdown of the weekend:

  • Gusty showers are being noted across the state today, well ahead of the Delta that’s still in the deep south.
  • We will be seeing some breaks in the showers today, but that break isn’t going to show up everywhere at the same exact time. You will have to pick and choose your dry times based on the radar for your particular area.
  • Heavy rain and thunderstorms will increase tonight into Sunday as what’s left of Delta moves in here.
  • A swatch of 1″-3″ shows up across much of the state, but we will see a sharp cutoff on the northern edge of the heaviest rain. So, if you’re around the Interstate 64 corridor, you may be walking a fine line between gentle rain and heavier rain.
  • Some local high water issues may show up, especially on Sunday in the south or southeast.

Here are your Saturday rain tracking radars:

Have a good one and take care.

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Heavy rain likely this weekend

Good Friday, everyone. Hurricane Delta is punishing Louisiana today and will steadily roll our way from there. This brings rounds of heavy rain into the region for the weekend, potentially leading to some issues.

Let’s start with the current satellite shot of this powerful storm…

Here’s all the current information on the storm from the National Hurricane Center…

Here’s a breakdown of how the weekend may play out:

  • A few showers arrive tonight and into Saturday. This isn’t going to be wall to wall rainfall during this time, so you can get some outdoor activities in. You just have to pick and choose your battles.
  • The farther north you live, the better the chance for more dry time on Saturday.
  • The best opportunity for heavy rain rolls in here Saturday night and Sunday. A swath of 1″-3″ of rain will show up and there’s the chance for locally higher amounts. Pinpointing the area of highest totals is still a work in progress. Here’s my current thinking:

I will be updating that throughout the day as the exact inland track continues to show itself.

The computer models are starting to give us more consistency than the past few days. Here’s a preview:

NAM

SHORT RANGE CANADIAN

ICON

EURO

GFS

Local high water issues will be possible, especially Saturday night and Sunday. Winds will be gusty, but it doesn’t look like anything crazy.

A fall front follows this up Monday night and early Tuesday. This will bring a line of showers and storms across the region as chilly air returns. A much deeper trough arrives by next weekend as the overall pattern across North America takes on much more of a winter season look.

Have a good one and take care.

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Delta to bring heavy rain this weekend

Good Thursday, folks. Our nice weather rolls on for another day or so before we take a turn toward the ugly. Hurricane Delta is heading toward Louisiana and will then move our way this weekend. That will bring heavy rain and gusty winds to the region.

Hurricane Delta is now moving northwest in the Gulf of Mexico:

This will continue to intensify as it works toward the northwest then almost due north into Louisiana on Friday. My forecast for the inland track of this storm has been largely unchanged for the past several days, with just a small tweak on one occasion. Here’s how that looks:

Notice how the forecast from the National Hurricane Center is now almost directly in line with mine:

Here are the Key Messages from the NHC on this storm:

The latest guidance from the Hurricane Models is tightly clustered on the center of this storm going up over top of us:

The storm is now with the range of the NAM through Saturday evening. Here’s how the model looks during this time:

Check out the wind gust forecast from this run:

The GFS has a very similar track:

We now find the EURO losing it’s bias of being too far west and too slow. It’s now in line with everything else:

Here’s the rainfall forecast from the EURO:

The HWRF hurricane model also brings Delta right on top of us:

Here’s a recap of what to expect:

  • A pipeline of tropical moisture will show up well ahead of the center of Delta. That would put the first rains into Kentucky as early as Friday night.
  • The heaviest rain arrives later Saturday and lasts into Sunday as what’s left of Delta spins nearby or right over top of us.
  • As of now, a general 1″-3″ of rain will be possible with locally heavier amounts. The exact location of the heaviest rain will show itself as the inland track becomes more apparent.
  • That track of the center of circulation is also critical in determining what areas have the chance for strong or severe thunderstorms.
  • Winds will be pretty darn gusty with this system and could gust to 30-35mph at times.

Once this system clears, we will have to watch a potent fall storm system rolling in here on Tuesday. This may bring a line of strong storms ahead of a push of chilly air:

This is a pattern with early season potential, folks. The end of October and early November has some potential.

Enjoy the rest of your day and take care.

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All eyes on Delta and our weekend impact

Good Wednesday, everybody. We are coming off one of the coldest starts to October in Lexington’s history, but our focus is shifting to the tropics. Hurricane Delta is a powerful storm that will likely impact our weather by the weekend.

Before looking ahead, here’s a quick recap of the cold start to October:

All of this and not a single Frost Advisory from our friends who work for the taxpayers.

Ok, let’s get to the star of the weather show and that’s Hurricane Delta. This storm will slam ashore in Louisiana later this week and, what’s left of it, should move our way for the coming weekend. I have made only minor changes to my earlier line of thinking:

This would bring heavy rain, gusty winds and the potential for a few strong storms into Kentucky starting Friday night and going through Sunday. Obviously, the exact timing and track is still not set in stone and I’ll be providing updates as needed.

The latest from the National Hurricane Center shows just how powerful this storm is:

They are just a little slower with this storm than before and that’s certainly a possibility, but there’s likely to be a plume of tropical moisture well ahead of the center of circulation.

We are now getting to within the range of the high powered hurricane models:

HWRF

HMON

Notice both of those are slower with the storm and likely the reason the NHC has slowed this down a bit.

As far as the operational models are concerned, we find the EURO doing what it did with Sally and Laura and is forecasting the farthest west landfall:

You will notice just how painfully slow it is after landfall, too. That allows for it to merge with a deep trough moving in here early next week. This time, the EURO does have a dancing partner in the Canadian:

It’s not as slow as the EURO but has the farther west track just ahead of the trough coming in behind it.

The GFS has done a better job of handling tropical systems this season and is farther east and faster:

The GFS Ensembles spaghetti plot is also a bit west:

The Hurricane Model spaghetti plot has been slowly inching back to the northwest, with the majority into Kentucky:

This will be interesting to see how the track plays out and that’s what will keep me busy this week.

Have a happy Wednesday and take care.

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Nice weather as we watch the Gulf

Good Tuesday to one and all. It’s another very nice fall day across the state, but the focus going forward is on the Gulf of Mexico and Delta. This is a storm that continues to strengthen and will head toward the Gulf Coast later this week and it may impact our weather this weekend.

Today starts with temps generally in the 30s and some frost for many areas. This will lead to another round of frost in some areas. By the afternoon, temps will be in the 65-70 degree range for many with sunny skies.

Highs on Wednesday head toward the 70s as we wait for a weak front to drop in from the north and northeast. That knocks the numbers down a bit behind this.

Tropical Storm Delta will become a hurricane and I think this can become a Major Hurricane before coming ashore. Here’s the current info and forecast track from the National Hurricane Center:

I’ve repeatedly pointed out the pattern being similar to that of 1995 when Opal made it all the way into our region. Now, that’s not saying this will become another Opal or take the exact same track, but the setup is similar. The GFS brings this system right on top of us this weekend:

The GFS Ensembles agree with this overall thought process:

The EURO has struggled with tropical systems all year, but then again the model has struggled with everything all year. Still, it brings what’s left of it our way this weekend:

Nothing about the track of this system is set in stone and it could very well just graze us with a track to our south. That’s something the Hurricane Models are now suggesting:

We must keep a very close eye on this in the coming days because, if it tracks over us, some big time rains will be possible.

Enjoy the day and take care.

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A touch of frost possible to start the week

Good Monday to one and all. It’s the first full week of October and it’s starting out with a touch of frost for some areas. This kicks off another pleasant fall week across the Commonwealth, but the tropics may try to impact the pattern by the weekend.

Let’s begin with today and roll forward. Temps range from the middle 30s to middle 40s to start the day and will top out in the 60s. Skies stay partly cloudy.

This sets the stage for another cold night with temps that can be even colder across, especially, central and eastern Kentucky.

The NAM is likely too cold in showing a freeze:

The CANADIAN continues to show the 30s:

This is one of those setups where good radiational cooling can take place, so some of the traditional cold valleys can drop way down there.

Green Thumbs should take precautions to be safe.

Nice fall weather continues through the rest of the week, but what’s happening in the tropics will dictate everything from this point. We continue to see Tropical Storm Gamma slowly working across the southern Gulf, but the system coming behind it is likely to develop and get into the Gulf:

The GFS Ensembles show this system heading toward the central Gulf Coast and potentially impacting our weather:

That matches the latest run from the GFS:

Have a great Monday and take care.

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A few showers move in

Good Sunday to one and all. We have another weak system rolling across the state today and it’s bringing a few showers to our fall weekend party. Another shot of cold air could bring some more patchy frost into the picture over the next few days.

Highs out there today are generally in the 60s with a mix of sun and clouds and those scattered showers. This doesn’t look like much rain at all:

You can see this on the NAM rainfall numbers:

Here are your Sunday shower tracking radars:

A shot of chill filters in behind this for Monday and Tuesday and that could mean temps drop deep into the 30s again.

NAM MONDAY MORNING

NAM TUESDAY MORNING

Obviously, the NAM is showing some below freezing numbers by Tuesday morning. I still think that’s too cold, but with some very dry air in place, we should get some efficient radiational cooling.

One thing that’s standing out with the models is that the GFS and EURO are garbage right now with temps and especially overnight lows. The GFS couldn’t even initialize correctly this morning. The model was saying temps were in the 40s for lows instead of the 30s. The Canadian, NAM and even the ICON are absolutely spanking those models with temps.

Temps will be in the 60s for highs Monday and Tuesday and may reach the 70s ahead of a Wednesday cold front. That knocks the numbers back down for the end of the week. It’s at this point most of the weather may be dictated by a lot of action ramping up on the tropics:

Gamma looks to hang around the southern Gulf of Mexico for a long time:

cone graphic

Don’t be surprised if a system or two impacts the Gulf states over the next 1-2 weeks. If so, there’s the potential for some of that to get drawn up into our region.

Make it a great day and take care.

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Chilly weekend rolls on

Good Saturday, everyone. Early season frost made an appearance across the region over the past few mornings. Temps stay well below normal through the weekend and that likely takes us into next week.

For more than a week now, I’ve targeted the first few days of October for a blast of cold air that could bring the first touch of frost for some areas. Mother nature delivered the goods Friday morning with lows deep into the 30s:

Many areas should see similar conditions to start today, so keep that in mind.

This afternoon will find clouds increasing from the west with temps ranging from the upper 50s to middle 60s, depending on where you live. Those clouds are ahead of our next system moving in for Sunday and Sunday night:

Temps will be chilly with this system and stay in the 50s for areas getting in on the rains. This pulls a chilly shot back in behind it for Monday and could send lows back into the 30s to start the day.

Temps remain below normal for much of next week as another trough dives into the east. The big story is likely to come from the Caribbean where we now have a Tropical Depression:

cone graphic

There’s another system that may develop behind that one:

This whole mess is going to make for some very messy model runs in the coming days. Trust none of them beyond a few days.

Have a great Saturday and take care.

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