Tracking a possible light snow-maker

Good Thursday, everyone. Our string of awesome weather days is about to come to a crashing end. Old Man Winter is ready to fight back into the Bluegrass State later Friday into Saturday and could put down a light snowfall.

A potent storm system is rolling across Texas and will work into the deep south on Friday. That storm will then work toward the Outer Banks of North Carolina and then up the East Coast on Saturday.

A track like that can deliver some accumulating snows to our region. Here’s a breakdown:

– Light rain and a mix will increase from southwest to northeast Friday afternoon and evening.

– As the precipitation falls, temps will do the same. That means a switch to a period of light snow later Friday evening into Saturday morning.

– This doesn’t look like a big snowfall right now, but some sticking snow appears to be a good bet. Here’s a look at the areas with the best chance of seeing that:

Special- That is subject to change depending on how the low tracks. A farther west track would give us a better chance for sticking snow. The opposite would be true if the low goes farther to the east.

Between now and then, the weather out there today looks pretty good. Highs will hit the 40-45 degree range with a mix of sun and clouds. There is also the smallest chance of a sprinkle or snow flurry.

I will update as needed later Friday. Make it a good one and take care.

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Winter weather for the weekend?

Good Wednesday to one and all. Our run of mild weather is ending as much colder air pushes back into the Bluegrass State. This will set up a pattern that could bring a couple of winter weather-makers our way by the weekend.

Let’s start with where we are Wednesday.

Highs will hit the mid and upper 40s in many areas as a weak cold front slips through. There will be a mix of sun and clouds with the slightest chance of a shower.

Colder air will then settle in for Thursday ahead of s southern storm system. This bad boy has been well telegraphed for more than a week, but the track on it has varied. Many of the models over the past several days have shown this storm tracking well to our south and east. That is now changing.

Let’s review the track of this storm on some of the latest model runs. The GFS snow brings a lot of precipitation into our region:

GFS

Much of that would fall as wet snow Friday into the first half of Saturday.

The European Model started the trend of bringing this system farther north and west, but the latest run is just a tad east:

Euro

That’s still a hit of wet snow for parts of our region as the storm wraps up along the East Coast.

A couple trends are becoming apparent:

1. This looks like a stronger storm.

2. Because of that, it takes a farther north and west track and affects Kentucky. Again, that’s the current snapshot of how things are looking. Stay tuned.

The system that follows that late in the weekend is also showing up stronger, with more of an impact on our weather. We have a hefty upper-level system diving into the eastern trough as a big ridge develops along the West Coast:

GFS 2

On face value, that’s a setup for snow across our part of the world. As you know, I’ve been focusing more on the upper levels with this weekend, but the lower levels are now catching on. Here’s the European Model:

Euro 2

The GFS isn’t too far behind:

GFS 3

If the upper level forecasts are right — if – then the surface system might continue to trend deeper in the coming days. I suspect that a lot of that might be determined by what happens with our Friday-Saturday storm across the east.

I will have updates as needed. Have a great day and take care.

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Colder air slowly pushes in

Good Tuesday, everyone. Our run of nice temperatures is about to come to an end as colder air bleeds in from the northwest. This colder air will take us back to around normal for the rest of the week.

Highs Tuesday will be back in the 50-degree range in many areas, with partly sunny skies. Clouds and winds will increase and a late day shower will be possible. That’s ahead of the cold front from the northwest.

Highs over the next few days will be in the upper 30s and low 40s, with the slightest change for a snow shower or flurry.

The southern storm that follows that looks as if it will stay away from us, but the European Model now has it grazing southeastern Kentucky:

Euro 2

As always, we shall see.

The more likely shot at some snow comes this weekend, as a system dives in from the northwest. Watch how this thing digs in as a big ridge jumps out west:

EuroThat’s a setup upstairs that can lead to a fairly potent system trying to develop. As I started earlier, the seasonal trend suggests a hearty helping of “wait and see.”

Make it a great Tuesday and take care.

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A winter break starts the week

Good Monday to one and all. The new week is off and running on a pretty good weather note. Our Martin Luther King, Jr. Day will feature some sun and pleasant temperatures. While we are nice now… a series of cold fronts will sweep winter back in here as the next week wears on.

Highs today will hit the upper 40s and low 50s under mostly sunny skies. Winds will be a bit breezy, but we really can’t complain about this type of weather.

Hamburg Area from WKYT Studio
Lexington

Tuesday will find similar temps across the region as clouds increase ahead of a cold front. That front may bring some showers into town by the evening hours with much colder air to follow by Wednesday. That’s when the European Model shows a weak wave of low pressure and the possibility of some light snow showers:

Euro

That’s a seasonal brand of cold that settles in for the second half of the week. It’s really nothing out of the ordinary, but is a decent drop from where we are today.

With a dip in the jet stream developing, we have to watch for clipper systems to dive in here from the northwest. The European Model is keying on a strong clipper by later in the weekend:

Euro 2

That has been a constant signal on the models, but it goes against the winter trends, so far.

Make it a great Monday and take care.

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Cold front arrives early today

Good Sunday, everyone. We’re tracking a cold front across the bluegrass state today. This will usher in much colder air to go along with some early day rain and snow showers. It’s the first in a series of fronts that will usher in colder and colder air for the week ahead.

Today’s front swings through pretty early with a rain or snow shower possible. Gusty winds will blow some colder air into town with highs in the upper 30s to low 40s.

From that point… it’s looking more and more like we will be tracking several systems in from the northwest. That’s a pattern that has been non-existent this winter and is one that usually brings snows our way. Our first system rolls in on Tuesday with some rain and snow showers. A period of light snow and flurries will then try to kick in for a couple of days afterwards…

GFS 2That’s from the morning run of the GFS and that same run brings a clipper in here by Friday…

GFS 3

A few days later comes another clipper on the European…

Euro

It’s a pattern that trends colder with each passing system and is one that likely opens the floodgates to arctic air later in the month into February.

Make it a great Sunday and take care.

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Best weather day of the month

Good Saturday, everyone. I’m not going to pull any punches… today is likely the best weather day of the entire month of January. Of course, that’s not a tough call after all the gloomy and cold weather we’ve been seeing over the past few weeks. It’s also not a tough call with more winter weather on the way.

Highs today will hit the 50-55 degree range for many with partly to mostly sunny skies.

A cold front will swing into town as we head into early Sunday and that could bring a few rain or snow showers our way. The GFS shows some light moisture in the colder air:

GFSHighs for Sunday will reach the upper 30s and low 40s.

Monday will find better weather pushing in ahead of another cold front. Monday temps should be back into the 40s with some sun and clouds. That next front hits on Tuesday with the potential for a late day rain or snow shower.

This ushers in much colder air for the middle and end of next week with the possibility of some light snow makers.

The pattern from later next week into the following week keeps looking very cold with a blocking ridge showing up across Alaska…

Euro That carves out one deep trough on the European Ensembles. The Canadian Ensembles are seeing something similar…

CanadianThe GFS Ensembles are also bringing the core of the cold into our region…

GFS

Make it a great Saturday and take care.

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Better weather starts the weekend

Good Friday to one and all. After a wintry week in the Bluegrass State, things are looking much better to start the weekend. Make sure to enjoy it, because this is only a small pause in winter.

A series of cold fronts will usher winter back in town through next week, and that is likely to lead us back into another arctic cold period.

The better weather comes Friday and Saturday, with a mix of sun and clouds and milder temps. A big gradient will be with us from north to south. Highs will hit the 40s in many areas, but possibly only in the 30s in the north. It gets even better Saturday, with highs in most areas hitting the 50s. Windy weather will also be with us.

A cold front sweeps in Sunday, with some rain and snow showers and colder air. Another front shows up late Tuesday and Wednesday, and the GFS shows  something along this line:

GFSAnother storm system will try to follow that up by later in the week, and that’s something else for us to watch. The cold signal continues to absolutely run wild from late next week into the following week:

Euro Euro 2

Euro 3

That’s wicked and looks a whole lot like what we had to go through about the same time last winter.

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Tracking a band of light snow

Good Thursday to one and all. A streak of light snow will affect parts of Central and Eastern Kentucky on Thursday. This could lay down some light accumulations in some areas as we await better weather by Friday.

The places most likely to see some light snow Thursday will be south of Interstate 64. This band of light snow and flurries will streak in from west to east during the morning and will then fade away during the afternoon. A few spots could pick up some light accumulation, and it could be just enough to cause some slick spots.

Track away:

Hamburg Area from WKYT Studio
Lexington

I-75 at MP 36
London
I-75 @ MP 36

I-75 at MP 23
Corbin
I-75 @ MP 23

I-75 @ Winchester Road Lexington

I-75 @ Winchester Road

I-75 @ Clays Ferry Bridge South Between Lexington and Richmond

US 60 @ US 127 Frankfort

US60 @ US127

Better weather rolls in Friday and Saturday as temps slowly climb. Saturday looks great, with highs hitting the 50s. Enjoy it; another cold front arrives early Sunday. The European Model is back to showing a little more action with that:

EuroColder winds will blow as temps drop through the day, with snow showers taking over. Right now, I don’t think that’s a huge deal, but we will keep watching it.

The cold shows up in a big, big way later next week and beyond. Here’s the European Ensembles five-day running average of temps that start later next week:

Euro 2

That is a super cold look with a ton of blocking showing up across Alaska and northern Canada. It’s starting to take on a similar look to what we were seeing around this same time last year.

Have a great day and take care.

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Icy conditions in some areas

Good Wednesday, everyone. Another round of winter weather pushed across the region Tuesday night and early Wednesday morning, leaving some icy roads in some areas. The greatest potential for slick spots continues to be across eastern and southeastern Kentucky.

I’ll get to all your tracking tools in a moment. First, I want to talk about where we go after Wednesday.

Another sneaky little system looks to try to scoot across the state on Thursday and could produce some snowflakes. Here’s the future radar from the hi-res NAM:

NAM 2

After a very brief January thaw on Saturday, another cold front dives in Sunday. Most of the models simply produce some snow showers around here, but the European Model shows a more robust setup with a wave of low pressure:

Euro

We shall see about that. Regardless, the air behind this front continues to show up colder and colder for Sunday and Monday.

Yet another cold front moves in a few days later, and most of the models suggest a storm tries to develop along that boundary. The European Model:

Euro 2

There is little doubt that this pattern continues to skew much colder than normal. The big question is, where is the snow? It’s been largely absent since November, but snowier days are taking shape in the weeks ahead.

I leave you with the daily tracking toys:

Make it a wonderful Wednesday and take care.

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Winter weather potential

Good evening, gang. Another light winter weather maker will impact the eastern half of the state tonight into early Wednesday. This could be in the form of freezing rain/drizzle with some light snow mixed in.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY is out for southeastern Kentucky:

Slick roads will be possible later tonight and for the Wednesday morning commute. Here are your tracking tools:

Enjoy the evening and take care.

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