Big changes show up this week

Good Monday, everyone. It’s another steamy day in the region, but a cold front is ready to change that up for the days ahead. This front brings an increase in showers and storms, and a big decrease in temps. As a matter of fact, this front stalls across the region and keeps the rain chances around and the temps down.

It’s a busy week of weather and it’s kicking off with a scattering of showers and storms out there today. That action increases tonight and Tuesday as a strong cold front drops in from the northwest. Some of the storms may be strong and there’s a low-end risk for a severe storm or two.

Here’s the Severe Weather Outlook from the Storm Prediction Center:

I will have your storm tracking tools in a bit.

Much better air comes in behind the front for the middle and end of the week. Our front puts the breaks on just to our south as a potent system works across the Tennessee and lower Ohio Valleys. This brings rounds of showers and storms later in the week and into the weekend.

Here’s the early call on the potential for heavy rainfall:

How widespread that gets depends on how long and strong that upper low is pushing into the region. The EURO likes a slow-mover and spins up a couple of systems:

Look at this deepening trough setting up right on top of the region:

That’s darn impressive for the end of July and the start of August and would lead to cooler than normal temperatures during this time. All models are on board with this and we could have some decent departure from normal numbers show up:

This kind of pattern can also be a fairly wet one through the first half of August. The Ensembles are showing above normal rainfall for our entire region over the next two weeks:

EURO

GFS

Much of this pattern will be determined by what happens with the system out in the Atlantic. Obviously, the above models aren’t quite as bullish on a potential US impact as before. Here’s the system to watch:

Here are your storm tracking tools and toys:

Current watches
Current Watches

Possible Watch Areas

Current MDs

Make it a great day and take care.

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Active changes for the week ahead

Good Sunday, everybody. Hot and humid weather rolls on out there today as we fire up a few more storms. Once into the week ahead, it’s a totally different pattern taking shape. Things are about to get active and that means higher rain chances and lower temps.

Let’s kick things off with what’s going on out there today. Highs are back into the low 90s for those without any shower or storm action going up. With a drying ground for areas missing out on the bulk of the rain over the past week, those numbers may inch up a few degrees. Scattered storms will be out there and should be a bit farther north than Saturday. Locally heavy rains may cause some issues and we will keep a close eye on that. Your tracking tools will be at the bottom of this post.

A strong cold front approaches the state from the northwest late Monday into Tuesday. This will have a healthy round of showers and thunderstorms ahead of it and some of the storms will be strong. Much better air then comes in behind this front as it stalls just to our south. That let’s another big wave of low pressure to develop and work from west to east along the front. That could bring some big rains into parts of Kentucky.

Here’s how the models see this:

EURO

GFS

The models are in really good agreement from this far out and both are spitting out some significant rain totals through next week:

EURO

GFS

The exact path of the heaviest rain will depend on exactly where that front slows down. 

As all of this is happening, the Atlantic tropical system is off to the fastest start on record. Hurricane Hanna made landfall in Texas Saturday with Gonzalo is falling apart in the Caribbean in the coming days. The system behind it is the one to watch:

That should become a hurricane and the models do try to bring this toward the southeastern part of the country by next weekend:

EURO

The GFS goes out farther than the EURO and brings this all the way to the Bluegrass State:

That’s still a long way away, but that’s a system to watch for a possible USA impact.

I leave you with your Sunday storm tracking toys:

Enjoy the day and take care.

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Tracking big changes just ahead

Good Saturday to one and all. As hard as it is to believe, we have made it to the final weekend of July and things are looking pretty seasonal. We have toasty temps and a few scattered storms rumbling across the region. Once into the final work week of the month, we will see some fairly stout changes roll in.

As far as the weather part of the show goes, temps are back into the upper 80s and low 90s this weekend with a little more humidity back into the mix. Scattered showers and storms will also fire up, especially across the southern half of the state. I will have your tracking tools in a bit.

The big changes come next week as the jet stream takes on a much different look. We see the jet taking a big dip across the eastern half of the country to end the month and kick off July:

That’s from the EURO (which seems to be doing much better of late). You can see it follows the trough up with a slow-moving upper low right on top of us with a tropical system near Florida. Here’s what all of that looks like in terms of rain and storm chances:

The front arriving Monday night and Tuesday may bring a few strong to severe storms with it. Much better air then follows that up for the middle and end of next week. The system dropping in from the northwest may bring some very wet weather during the first week of August to go along with cooler than normal temps. Of course, that system in the tropics will need to be watched closely.

Speaking of the tropics, Hanna is coming ashore in Texas:

The National Hurricane Center is also Tracking Gonzalo in the Atlantic and the more potent system coming in behind it:

I leave you with your Saturday storm tracking toys:

Have a happy Saturday and take care.

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A few more storms end the week

Good Friday to one and all. We’ve made it to the end of the week and have the final weekend of July about ready to kick off, and it’s doing so with more of the same. That means a few storms will be on the move once again. As we look farther down the road, we find a pattern change staring at us next week.

With the front right on top of us today, we are seeing more in the way of scattered showers and storms. The greatest risk is along and south of the Interstate 64 corridor and a few storms can put down a lot of rain in a short amount of time. I will have your tracking tools in a bit.

There will still be a storm or two going up over the weekend as the front starts to wash out. High temps will steam up again, but we may see a fairly wide range because of any clouds or storm action.

A strong cold front arrives late Monday into Tuesday and could bring some potent storms in here. It also unleashes some much better feeling air which could be accompanied by a few systems dropping in on a northwest flow into the start of August:

You can see how this trough tries to get established across the eastern half of the country during this time:

If you look at the tail end of that loop, you will see a hurricane heading into the Bahamas. Which brings me to the tropics…

I’ve been priming you for a very active tropical setup and that is kicking into high gear with 3 current systems to track. The first is Tropical Storm Hanna down in the Gulf of Mexico. This has a date with Texas this weekend:

You can see the system coming together nicely:

The National Hurricane Center is also Tracking Gonzalo in the Atlantic and another system coming in behind it:

That third system is the one the EURO shows in the Bahamas in around 10 days.

Obviously, the tropics can play a major role in the overall pattern across the eastern part of the country. In looking at the general setup, I find it difficult to believe we won’t see some tropical rains in the coming weeks and months.

I leave you with your Friday storm tracking toys:

Make it a great day and take care.

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Cold front slows down right on top of us

Good Thursday to one and all. It’s another day of scattered showers and storms rumbling across our part of the world. This action is along a slow-moving cold front that’s about to put the brakes on across the Commonwealth. This means the potential for a few more storms in the coming days.

As usual, let’s start with today and roll forward. Our cold front is slowing down across the lower Ohio Valley and will continue to be the focus for more rounds of showers and thunderstorms. Just like what we’ve seen in recent days, a few storms may be strong or locally severe. The greatest threat for this may be across the eastern half of the state. Here’s the current severe weather outlook from the Storm Prediction Center:

Local wind damage and large hail will be possible with any strong storm that goes up. The threat for flash flooding is still there and that’s something we are going to have to keep in mind for a while.

This front will sag a bit farther south for Friday and early Saturday and this should give the northern parts of the state better weather than the south and far west. Temps will also be better through this time.

Storms will increase again later Sunday into early next week as we see a big time dip in the jet stream across the eastern half of the country. Some of those storms may be strong or severe and cause local high water issues:

This dip in the jet stream may bring some very nice air in here to end July and begin August:

The EURO CONTROL run goes out through the first week of August and shows this trough lingering with a tropical system coming out of the Gulf:

That would appear to be from a 3rd system out off the coast of Africa right now. Ahead of it, we have Gonzalo in the Atlantic and a system in the Gulf that may develop into a depression or storm soon:

Here’s the Gulf system:

Here are your storm tracking tools and toys:

Current watches
Current Watches

Possible Watch Areas

Current MDs

Make it a great Thursday and take care.

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Strong storms along a cold front

Good Wednesday, folks. A cold front is working into the region with an increase in showers and thunderstorms. There’s also the potential for strong to severe storms and local high water issues.

We have an increase in showers and thunderstorms booming across the state today and this ups the ante on local high water issues. This continues to be part of a setup featuring daily rounds of showers and storms as the steam hangs tough.

Today’s storms will be in clusters, but the overall coverage will be much greater than the past few days as another front approaches from the northwest. The flash flood threat is elevated in a setup like this, so let’s keep an eye out on those flood prone areas.

The storms may also be strong to severe with damaging winds and hail. Here’s today’s Severe Weather Outlook from the Storm Prediction Center:

The setup for Thursday and Friday looks similar with additional rounds of showers and storms showing up around here. Once again, the local flash flood threat will be with us.

The flow changes up a bit this weekend and early next week, but it will still feature steam and more storms. Rounds of thunderstorms will be diving in from the northwest during this time.

The models have been going back and forth on a pattern change to end July and begin August. Some of the latest data suggests a trough dives into the eastern part of the country and sends the worst of the heat out west:

EURO

EURO ENSEMBLES

EURO ENSEMBLES CONTROL

The tropics continue to spring up right on cue with one system in the Gulf and another in the Atlantic:

Here are your storm tracking tools and toys:

Current watches
Current Watches

Possible Watch Areas

Current MDs

Make it a wonderful Wednesday and take care.

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Rounds of storms rumble on

Good Tuesday, everyone. Rounds of showers and thunderstorms continue to target central and eastern Kentucky. Some of the storms may be strong and put down a lot of rain in a short amount of time. It’s looking more and more like we are locking in to this stormy setup for the next week or so.

We find much of the region back into the low-end risk for scattered severe storms out there today. Here’s the current Severe Weather Outlook from the Storm Prediction Center:

Guess what? That threat also holds tough into Wednesday:

Damaging wind is the primary threat from any severe storm that blows up anywhere across the region. Some large hail also can’t be ruled out.

With such a water loaded atmosphere, local flash flooding issues should return both today and into Wednesday. As a matter of fact, rounds of thunderstorms will keep coming at us through the rest of the week, into the weekend, and likely into next week.

Much of the storm action will be dropping in from the northwest during this time and that shows up in the rainfall forecast from the models:

GFS

CANADIAN

This is a stormy look as we move into the closing days of July and that should continue into early August.

I’ve also been highlighting the increased potential for tropical action. The NHC now shows this potential:

Here are your storm tracking tools and toys:

Current watches
Current Watches

Possible Watch Areas

Current MDs

Make it a terrific Tuesday and take care.

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A few strong storms possible

Good Monday to one and all. As a cold front drops in from the northwest, it’s bringing an increase in the amount of shower and thunderstorm action. Clusters of storms look to hang around for much of the week and a few could be on the strong side. We will also have to be on guard for a few big time rain makers for some areas.

The storms out there today will indeed come at us in rounds as opposed to being all day type stuff. We do run the risk for a few storms to produce damaging winds and large hail. The Storm Prediction Center has most of the region covered in a low-end risk for severe storms:

This risk will be with us again on Tuesday. Here’s the current Severe Weather Outlook from the SPC:

Again, let’s watch for the potential for flash flooding over the next few days and likely for the rest of the week. That’s because we may set the stage for repeat rounds of thunderstorms rolling over our region:

This is not a pattern of all day rains or one that drenches every part of the state. Several areas will have healthy rain totals while others won’t pick up much. That’s the deal with summer thunderstorms.

Temps will come down some for the second half of the week, but the steam returns for the weekend. This will also keep the threat for a few storms going during that time.

The heat ridge is going to try to pull back to the west and north as we head into August. This could really allow for the tropics to come to life and we may even see something in the Gulf before then.

Here is the Monday edition of your storm tracking tools:

Current watches
Current Watches

Possible Watch Areas

Current MDs

Have a great Monday and take care.

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More storms join the summer steam

Good Sunday, everybody. It’s another hot and humid day across the region, but the threat for thunderstorms is on the increase. These storms look to come at us in waves over the next several days and will unleash some better air before next week is through.

As usual, we begin with what’s shaking out there today. Highs are generally in the 90-95 degree range for many with a heat index topping out around 100 in several areas.

A few scattered storms will also flare up, but there is the threat for some late afternoon and evening severe storms across the northern areas of the state. The Storm Prediction Center placed this part of the region in the Severe Weather Outlook for today:

Damaging winds and large hail are the main players with any these storms. Given the tremendous amount of moisture in the air, flash flooding is also possible.

We may see a few more strong to severe storms showing up on Monday as we get a front to inch closer to the region. Here’s what the Storm Prediction Center is thinking:

Rounds of showers and storms will be with us ahead of a late Wednesday cold front. That front brings some better air in here for Thursday into Friday, but a few more storms may be ahead of the next surge of steam next weekend:

You can see this bit of better air on the GFS:

We may also see the tropics trying to crank a little action over the next week or so.

As usual, I have you guys all set to do some Sunday storm tracking:

Current watches
Current Watches

Possible Watch Areas

Current MDs

Have a great day and take care.

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Steamy temps and stormy skies roll on

Good Saturday to one and all. It’s another seasonally steamy day across central and eastern Kentucky, but a few more storms will be on the move. This is a continuation of the pattern from the past several days and we may see the storms increase as we head into next week.

Temps out there today are generally ranging from the middle 80s to low 90s. Humidity levels will make it feel even hotter. We will also see a scattering of showers and storms go up, especially this afternoon and evening.

Here are your Saturday tracking toys for the day:

This pattern is going to keep spitting out similar conditions from Sunday through early next week. Highs range from the middle 80s to 90-95, depending on the amount of storms on any given day. Humidity levels will make it feel much hotter, but that’s because the tropical air is really off the charts.

Now, we are heading into a pattern that becomes more conducive for rounds of stronger storms and heavy rains. This setup can deliver some big wind makers and flash flooding. Here’s the GFS:

Even the Euro is seeing the storms:

The control run of the EURO sees the potential over the next 1-2 weeks:

Make it a great Saturday and take care.

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