Heavy rain on the way

Good Sunday to one and all. We’re putting the wraps on a very cold weekend for the middle of May. Some areas are starting out today with some patchy frost as temps continue to run well below normal.

As we roll our way into the week ahead, rounds of heavy rain and thunderstorms roll back into the bluegrass state. Given the setup I’m seeing, we could be dealing with another round or two of high water issues for some.

Highs today will hit the upper 50s to around 60 with a mix of sun and clouds. There’s a small chance for a few afternoon sprinkles:

Monday starts in the upper 30s and ends with rain on the increase. Rounds of showers and storms sweep in and carry us through Tuesday:

NAM 2

The NAM is spitting out some impressive rain totals during this time:

NAM 3

After a break in the rain later Wednesday and Thursday, the heavy stuff returns Friday into Saturday:

Euro

Make it a sensational Sunday and take care.

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It’s a cold weekend in the bluegrass

Good Saturday, everyone. We have a strong cold front pushing into central and eastern Kentucky today. This is bringing a round of gusty showers and thunderstorms early in the day, and a big blast of cold for the rest of the weekend.

The showers and storms this morning will be out of town by early afternoon. Winds will be very gusty with temps only reach the upper 50s to around 60. Track the ugly stuff:

This will set the stage for the potential for patchy frost into Sunday morning. That’s when lows will drop into the middle and upper 30s for many areas:

GFS TEMPS 1

The rest of your Sunday will look good, but it will still feel very chilly. Highs will only reach the low 60s into much of the region.

The small break in the stormy weather comes to an end by Monday evening with showers and storms back in the region:

GFS

Heavy rain and strong storms may carry us through much of the week. Sigh.

Enjoy the start to your weekend and take care.

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Frost threat for the weekend

Good Friday, everyone. We’re coming out of a very stormy setup across our part of the world.  That pattern delivered wind damage, hail and flooding problems. The good news is we have much drier air for the weekend. The bad news? It turns cold enough for a touch of frost.

Highs Friday will be in the low 70s by the time we hit the afternoon, with a mix of sun and clouds.

Another front moves in Friday night and early Saturday with a band of showers and thunderstorms. The cold air follows that for the weekend. Take a look at the numbers from the GFS:

GFS TEMPS 1

That is just one ugly weekend taking shape, and green thumbs are on high alert.

As the cold air pulls away Monday, showers and thunderstorms get set to blow back into the region. It’s another very stormy pattern settling in from late Monday through Thursday. This is ugly looking:

GFS

Strong storms and flooding rain are possible with that kind of setup. Sound familiar?

Make it a fantastic Friday and take care.

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Another day of strong storms

Good Thursday to one and all. Well… here we go again! Rounds of strong to severe storms are rumbling across the region again. The month of May is certainly bringing the rain and storms to our region.

Thursday’s action comes in waves, with the biggest threat of severe storms coming later in afternoon into early evening. Damaging winds and large hail are the main players. With such saturated ground, the potential is there for some local high water problems.

Here are your tracking tools for the day:


Latest Day 1 convective outlook

Current watches
Current Watches

Possible watch areas
Current MDs

Friday’s weather looks great, with highs in the low 70s under mostly sunny skies. Another front sweeps in Saturday morning with a few gusty showers and storms. The air behind this front is downright chilly.

Lows by Sunday and Monday could hit the mid- and upper 30s:

GFS TEMPS 1

That chill moves away early next week, with more storms set to replace it. As a matter of fact, the setup looks very stormy.

Enjoy your day and take care.

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Stormy setup rolls on

Good Wednesday to one and all. Strong to severe thunderstorms pounded much of the bluegrass state on Tuesday. These storms put down significant tornadoes out West, with damaging winds and large hail across Central and Eastern Kentucky.

Wednesday’s storms won’t be as potent, but a few could still be on the strong side. The best threat for strong storms may wind up across the southern half of the region. I will get to your tracking goodies in a moment.

A strong cold front moves in late Thursday into Thursday evening, and could be the focusing mechanism for another round of severe storms. Check out the storms on the NAM:

NAM

Heavy rainfall is a good bet with these storms as they roll through here. Given how much rain has fallen in recent days, we have to watch for local high water issues.

Friday’s weather looks much better with some sunshine and low 70s.

Another front arrives by Saturday morning with a broken band of showers and storms. The air coming behind this is cold for the middle of May. Highs on Saturday should range from the upper 50s to low 60s:

GFS TEMPS 1

Lows by Sunday morning could drop deep into the 30s:

GFS TEMPS 2

I leave you with your weather tracking tools for the day:
Latest Day 1 convective outlook

Current watches
Current Watches

Possible watch areas
Current MDs

Enjoy your day and take care.

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Tracking strong storms

Good Tuesday, folks. It’s another day of tracking showers and thunderstorms across our part of the world. May has been a stormy one, and that looks to continue for much of the rest of the month.

Some of the storms out there Tuesday could be strong or severe. Here’s a quick breakdown:

  • Rounds of storms work from west to east
  • Damaging winds and large hail are possible in a few of the storms
  • The greatest risk for severe weather is across Central and Western Kentucky

Rounds of storms will be back with us for Wednesday and Thursday. Heavy rainfall is a solid bet during this time. No, it’s not going to rain all the time, but when it does, it comes down hard.

We get a break Friday, but another round of showers and storms is likely Saturday:

GFS

Very chilly air is likely for the weekend. Highs might struggle to 60 on Saturday.

More storms will follow up the chill by Sunday night and Monday:

GFS 2

I have you set to track Tuesday’s stormy weather:
Latest Day 1 convective outlook

Current watches
Current Watches

Possible watch areas
Current MDs

Enjoy your Tuesday and take care.

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Rounds of storms continue to rumble

Good Monday, everyone. Much warmer air continues to push into the region, and it’s bringing along more thunderstorms. The boomers will come at us in waves through the rest of the week, with a chill in the air for the weekend.

Monday’s storms will be rather scattered in nature, with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. Track away:

Storms become a little more widespread Tuesday and Wednesday. This is when we will have to watch for the potential for some strong to severe thunderstorms. Here’s the setup during this time:

Euro

A cold front moves in on Thursday with a line of showers and strong thunderstorms along and ahead of it. That may temporarily put an end to the storms as chilly air dives into the eastern part of the country:

Euro 2

As the chill moves back to the north, the stormy setup looks to return:

Euro 3

The CFS thinks that setup carries us through May into much of June:

CFS

Have a great Monday and take care.

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More storms on the way

Happy Mother’s Day to all the moms out there! Our Derby Day turned out stormy, and it looks like a few more storms are on the way out there today. This action comes at us in waves for the week ahead.

Today’s storms shouldn’t be as bad as the action we had on Saturday. Still, a few strong storms can’t be ruled out with a big temperature gradient setting up from north to south. I have you all set to track:

Rounds of storms continue to come at us from later Monday through Wednesday, courtesy of this pattern:

Euro

A strong cold front arrives on the scene by Thursday with a line of showers and strong thunderstorms:

EuroCooler air comes in behind that for the upcoming weekend, but the stormy pattern is going to be tough to break.

Make it a great day and take care.

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Storms ready to return

Happy Kentucky Derby Day! Our big day is here with a big increase in temperatures. Readings are surging toward the upper 70s and low 80s, but a few thunderstorms threaten to crash our weekend party.

The most likely chance of storms will come late in the afternoon and evening, as a cold front drops in. That front stalls out, with scattered storms carrying us into Mother’s Day. Highs will be back in the low 70s on Sunday in many areas.

The call for next week is for a stormy pattern. Rounds of storms really ramp up from Monday night through Wednesday:

Canadian

Some of those could be strong and produce some torrential rain. The rounds of storms could last through much of next week.

For now, let’s concentrate on the potential for storms Saturday. I have your tracking tools:
Latest Day 1 convective outlook

Current watches
Current Watches

Possible watch areas
Current MDs

Have a great Kentucky Derby Day and take care.

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A great start to Derby weekend

Good Friday, folks. Much better weather is back in the region, and the timing on this is absolutely wonderful. The weekend ends on a much different note, but we will take some of the good stuff when we can get it.

Here’s a breakdown of the big weekend:

  • Some morning clouds and leftover showers will finally pull away from Eastern Kentucky. Sunny skies will take over in the afternoon, with highs in the upper 60s to near 70.
  • Kentucky Derby, Saturday, is a mainly dry and very warm day. Highs will reach 75 to 80 in most areas, with a mix of sun and clouds.
  • There is a threat of thunderstorms late in the day, but most of the action holds off until Saturday evening.
  • Scattered storms will be around into Mother’s Day, with highs in the lower 70s.

The simulated radar from the NAM shows the action from late Saturday into Sunday:

NAM 2

Next week is a mainly warm week with rounds of thunderstorms threatening the region. We need to watch for some strong to severe storms at times. Keep an eye on Tuesday and Wednesday, when some bigger storms are possible:

Canadian

I leave you with your Kentucky Oaks Day tracking tools:

Make it a great Friday and take care.

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