Much colder times ahead

Good Wednesday, everyone. We’re coming off a wild Groundhog Day, with many areas hitting record highs. Strong and severe storms rumbled across the state as high winds took center stage. From here, we start to focus on much colder weather on the way.

Temps Wednesday will slowly drop from west to east. We should see them settle into the 30s settle Wednesday evening, with the potential for a snowflake or two. Highs Thursday will generally stay in the 30s.

Seasonal temps move back in for Friday to start the weekend. All of this gets ready to change in a big, big way next week. The jet stream is ready to take a huge dip into the central and eastern sections of the country:

EuroThat setup can spawn snowmakers for our part of the world and is a rather extreme look. Much colder air also gets involved in the pattern. Look at the forecast departures by next Tuesday:

GFS 2That pattern is forecast to grow even colder as we head into Valentine’s weekend:

GFS 3

Winter isn’t over by any means!

I leave you with your Wednesday weather trackers:

Make it a great day and take care.

Euro 2 Euro 3 Euro 4

 

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Tracking the severe storms threat

Good Tuesday and happy Groundhog Day. We have a very busy weather day taking shape across our part of the world. A strong cold front brings the potential for record highs and severe weather to Central and Eastern Kentucky.

Here’s a breakdown of the day:

– A warm front lifts northward across the state and could produce a shower or two.

– Record highs will be possible, with many areas flirting with 70 degrees before the afternoon wraps up. Temps will stay in the 60s through the evening.

– A line of strong to severe storms develops across Western Kentucky by late in the afternoon or early evening. That line works eastward into Tuesday night.

– Damaging winds continue to be the main threat. Isolated tornadoes can’t be ruled out, Especially across south Central Kentucky.

– With or without thunderstorms, high winds are going to be a problem. Gusts to 50 mph will be possible with such a strong system. With a soggy ground from recent snow melt, some trees could come down.

– I’m a little more concerned about the local flash-flood potential. A 1- to 3-inch rainfall will be possible with these storms in a short time.

I have the blog all set for you to track Tuesday’s active weather:

Wednesday’s risk area
Latest Day 1 convective outlook

Current watches
Current Watches

Possible watch areas
Current MDs

Make it a great day and take care.

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A very active start to February

Good Monday to one and all. February is off and running with some showers and thunderstorms working across the state. This might be the appetizer to the main course of storms that arrives late Tuesday. This could make for some bumpy times for the groundhog, because some of the storms could be severe.

Monday’s action becomes more scattered as the day wears on and comes to an end in the afternoon. Highs will be much lower than where we’ve been and where we’re going. Look at the bounce-back for Tuesday:

NAM

With enough sunshine, highs could hit 70 degrees on a strong southwesterly wind flow. Record highs for Groundhog Day would be blown away if that happens. 67 is the record for Lexington for Feb. 2, from 1893.

With the warm weather comes the potential for severe thunderstorms as a powerful cold front moves through the region. Damaging winds and isolated tornadoes will be possible from late Tuesday afternoon through the wee hours of Wednesday morning.

Here’s the future radar to time the storms across the region:

NAM 2Colder air slowly swings in behind that system from west to east Wednesday. That cold gets bolstered by another arctic front that arrives over the weekend. That might have a band of light snow with it.

The longer-range models continue to pick up on a bigger signal for winter weather across the eastern half of the country early next week. Many of the models forecast several pieces of upper-air energy to come together and form a big system:

GFS 2

I leave you with your first day of February tracking tools:

Enjoy your Monday and take care.

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Warm weather leads to a big storm system

Good Sunday, everyone. We have another very mild day in store for central and eastern Kentucky. Above normal temps this time of year can often be accompanied by the threat for thunderstorms, and that’s just what we have in the days ahead. Some of those boomers could even become severe.

Temps today will be back into the low 60s for many areas with clouds slowly increasing. Showers develop and move in this evening and carry us into Monday morning. That action is along a weak cold front that quickly lifts back to the north as a warm front.

This sets the stage for a wild Groundhog Day Tuesday. Near record highs are possible on a strong southwesterly wind flow. Those winds will really crank by late in the afternoon and evening as a powerful storm develops to our west.

Sever thunderstorms with damaging winds and isolated tornadoes will be possible late Tuesday into Tuesday night. Watch the explosion of storms showing up on the models.

GFS

GFS 2

The Canadian…

Canadian

Please keep a close eye on this setup as we get closer.

Cold air presses in behind this front for the rest of the week into Super Bowl Weekend. In my last update, I said to watch the period from February 7-11 or a possible big winter weather system developing. The GFS must have been reading that post…

GFS 3

The stage is setup for wicked weather over the next few weeks, and the blog will keep you updated along the way.

I leave you with your Sunday tracking toys:

Make it a great Sunday and take care.

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Tracking wild weather changes

Good Saturday to one and all. We have a very mild and breezy weekend across central and eastern Kentucky. This is good news for all of those who have a serious case of cabin fever. This won’t last very long as some wild weather rolls in here to start the month of February.

Highs today reach the upper 50s on a strong southwesterly wind. 60 is possible in a few spots as skies stay mainly sunny.

Clouds increase Sunday ahead of a cold front. That front will produce a few showers by the evening and those carry us into Monday morning. Temps for Monday will drop into the upper 40s to low 50s.

This sets the stage for a very busy Groundhog Day in our part of the world. A huge storm system develops in the plains and rolls into the Great Lakes. That will have a blizzard to the west of it and the threat for severe weather ahead of it:

GFS

That setup means we could see temps flirting with record highs before storms move in late Tuesday. Some of those storms could be strong or severe with damaging winds the main threat.

Much colder air moves in behind that system for Wednesday with the potential for snow showers.

We know colder air comes in behind this for the rest of next week. Once into next weekend and beyond… look out! The pattern is threatening to send the country into the deep freeze. The GFS introduces this bitterly cold pattern with a system for us to watch for…

GFS 3

The GFS Ensembles from WeatherBELL are absolutely frigid…

GFS 2The European Ensembles from WeatherBELL are brutal. Look at the mega trough…

Euro 2

February has the look of another extreme winter month for much of the country!

Make it a great Saturday and take care.

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A very active pattern takes shape

Good Friday to one and all. We have a weak front blowing across the region, but this isn’t bringing much more than  a few snowflakes and chilly air. The forecast from later this weekend to next week is ready to ramp it up a few notches. It’s an active setup as we roll into February.

Morning flurries Friday will quickly get out of town, with a mix of sun and clouds in the afternoon. Highs will be in the 30s, but gusty winds will make it feel colder.

Highs by Saturday soar well into the 50s and could tickle 60 to the south. Many areas will make a run at 60 on Sunday on a stout southwesterly wind. Clouds will increase in the afternoon and could produce a few showers by evening.

A much better chance of showers will be with us Monday:

Euro1

You can already see a  much bigger storm developing across the Southwest. That storm is going to crank into a monster in the Plains states by Monday and Tuesday. It will probably have a blizzard on the cold side and a severe weather outbreak on the warm side:

Euro

For us, that could mean record highs on Tuesday, Groundhog Day, as winds crank to 40 mph or higher. Strong to severe thunderstorms would then roll eastward that afternoon and evening.

Temps crash behind that and could be 40 degrees lower by late Wednesday as some wraparound snow showers fly.

This leads us back into a winter pattern that has harsh written all over it for much of the country. Look at the temperature behind that front on the GFS Ensembles from WeatherBell:

GFS TEMPS 1

Let’s look a little farther down the road. The average from the European ensembles for a five-day span in Celsius:

Euro 3

To see those kinds of numbers from an ensembles run for a 5 day period is astounding.

Make it a fantastic Friday and take care.

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Big changes on the way

Good Thursday to one and all. Our overall weather pattern is looking rather active over the next few weeks. This means we have a lot of big changes on the way during this time. Those changes could mean severe storms and arctic air. Nothing like the changeable Kentucky weather to keep me hopping.

Another cold front moves in Thursday night and early Friday with some snow showers and flurries:

GFS

A sugar coating of snow is possible as this system moves through. Highs for Friday will again be in the 30s.

Much milder air then moves in over the weekend, with highs hitting the 50s to near 60 in many areas.

This leads us into a potent storm system moving our way late Monday and Tuesday. The setup with this storm could be a severe weather-maker for our region. Big-time thunderstorms and high winds could sweep across Kentucky on Tuesday:

GFS

The air coming in behind that is much colder:

GFS 2

Wraparound snows will be possible as that northwesterly flow kicks in for the second half of the week.

The models all point toward a very cold and wintry period taking shape thereafter:

GFS 3

Brutal cold:

GFS 4

Make it a great Thursday and take care.

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A big weekend warm-up on the way

Good Wednesday, folks. A seasonal brand of cold is back in the Bluegrass State and will hang around for the rest of the work week. All of that changes in a big way this weekend as temps get set to soar.

Highs today will be in the low and middle 30s, with mainly cloudy skies spitting out a few snow flurries.

The numbers recover some Thursday, as gusty winds increase ahead of another cold front. This boundary slides in early Friday, with the potential for some snow showers and flurries.  The GFS shows this well:

GFS

This leads us into the weekend and the big warm-up. Highs hit the 50s on Saturday and could flirt with 60 by Sunday. Winds will be very gusty, and those gusts will really increase early next week as a powerful storm rolls our way. This could put us in the line of fire for high winds and thunderstorms as it rolls through:

Euro

That’s the kind of front that can have a 40-degree temperature drop behind it. That also introduces a very cold pattern into the country:

Euro 3

In the meantime, let’s focus on the warmer air on the way for the weekend.

Make it a wonderful Wednesday and take care.

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Winter takes a brief break

Good Tuesday to one and all. Old Man Winter is going to be taking a small break over the next week. That doesn’t mean things are balmy during this time, but it does mean we are through with the harsh weather, for now.

A cold front is swinging across the state Tuesday with a band of light rain and falling temps. Readings drop into the 30s and hold there for most of the day. Some afternoon snowflakes will be possible across Central and Eastern Kentucky.

Highs on Wednesday will be in the low 30s, with a passing flurry or two. Another weak front moves in by Thursday night and Friday. That could squeeze out a few flakes as it moves in.

Much milder air surges in this weekend, with highs in the 50s in many areas. This is ahead of a potent storm system moving in early next week. That storm then unlocks the cold to return:

Euro

That’s from the European model. Here’s the GFS illustrating the big change:

GFS

The Canadian Model isn’t as strong with that system and is farther south and colder:

CanadianIt has the much colder air coming in and follows that storm up with this a few days later:

Canadian 2

This will be a drastic change ahead as temps go from above normal:

GFS TEMPS 1

To well below normal in the blink of an eye:

GFS TEMPS 2Winter is reloading, and I think it’s coming back in a big way as we get into February.

Make it a great Tuesday and take care.

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Tracking a cold front toward Kentucky

Good Monday, folks. We’re coming off an absolutely wicked week of winter weather across the Bluegrass State.  A history-making snowstorm blanketed much of the state in 1 to 2 feet of snow. To cap the weekend off, temps went below zero in many areas Sunday morning:

January 24 2016 Lows

A cold front moves in Monday night  and Tuesday, with some rain and snow showers. This front will then slow down just to our east late Tuesday as a wave of low pressure develops along it.

The new GFS shows some snow from this in southeastern Kentucky:

GFS

Snow showers then form behind that system across much of Central and Eastern Kentucky.

The models are also now going toward a clipper system dropping in by Thursday and Friday. This is what the GFS shows:

GFS 2

The European Model has the clipper diving in and trying to pick up a big storm coming out of the Gulf of Mexico:

Euro

We will just have to wait and see how all this plays out in the coming days. Overall, the harsh winter pattern appears to back off for the next week to 10 days before coming back in February.

Make it a great Monday and take care.

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