Cold and dreary weather rolls on

Good Wednesday, everyone. This has been a very ugly first 10 days of December. We’ve seen only a few hours of sunshine for the entire month, and it looks as if the clouds and cold will continue. For folks looking for some sunshine, I might have some for the weekend. Might being the key word.

Wednesday’s clouds will continue to spit our some snowflakes across the region. Highs will stay in the 30s, with gusty winds making it feel like the 20s from time to time. The flakes won’t really show up on radar because they’re very fine.

Current temperatures

The big cutoff low across the northeast continues to show up slower on the American Models. Check out the NAM:

NAMThat’s a flow that should keep highs in the 30s for Thursday and maybe Friday. It also will produce some… wait for it… clouds. There is some indication of clouds and sprinkles trying to develop over the weekend. That’s when temps begin to moderate, but the latest model runs are tempering the temperatures. The raw numbers from the GFS now have the highest temperature for Lexington at only 50 degrees, and that comes Sunday.

Whatever happens to our temps this weekend, another system should quickly close in on us from the west late Monday and Tuesday. The Canadian model shows the upper low cruising right on top of us:

Canadian 2

That would bring some wintry weather our way with a track like that.

You will see some wild model swings with that system because we have so much upper-level energy. This pattern has one of the more active jet streams that you will ever see, and that’s likely to lead to some extreme weather down the road.

The ensembles from all the models suggest that winter really cranks up during Christmas week. Check out the setup:

CanadianIf that proves to be correct, we could be looking at some snowflakes for the big week. I will break out the white Christmas meter this weekend.

Enjoy the day and take care.

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Festive flakes set to fly

Good Tuesday, everyone. We have much colder air blowing into the region as a cold front pushes to our east. This front will bring a northwesterly wind that ushers in some flurries and snow showers later Tuesday and Wednesday.

The day starts with some rain and snow showers mixed with highs in the upper 30s. The numbers will hang around in the mid- and upper 30s for most of the day, with some snowflakes taking over.

Current temperatures

A few more flurries and snow showers will carry us into Wednesday, with highs only in the middle 30s. Gusty winds will make it feel even colder.

If you’re looking for some accumulation, keep looking. This isn’t a substantial snow setup, but it’s one that will put most folks in the holiday spirit.

Temps for the rest of the week will average below normal, with clouds around for Thursday and Friday. Highs will generally run from the upper 30s to low 40s, with lows in the 20s.

A big upper-level low will continue to pinwheel across the east late this week into the weekend. That helps keep our temps at or below normal. Here’s the temperature departure map for Friday:

Euro

Saturday finds the core of the mild passing us by to the north and west, with some lingering chill in the east:

Euro 2 Temps will moderate this weekend and Monday, but the extent of that remains to be seen. This is the small window of opportunity for mild that I’ve been pointing toward.

It won’t last long, as another big closed upper-level low develops early next week. The progression of this will be fun to watch because you can get some wild model swings. The new Canadian Model brings that system right on top of us from late Monday through Wednesday:

CanadianThat would have a wintry component if it works out like that. Something to watch as we roll forward.

I continue to track the Christmas week potential, and we are likely to see a very wintry pattern taking shape. A big ridge goes up out west and floods the east with cold air from Canada. Throw in a active southern jet stream and some fun can be had for all:

Canadian 2 I think that week is the beginning of what might turn harsh as we head into January. I’m seeing some big signals showing up in the longer range.

Have a great day and take care.

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A taste of winter on the way

Good Monday to one and all. We have a touch of winter weather on the way to much of Central and Eastern Kentucky. It will come in the form of snow showers and flurries over the next few days.

A strong cold front is diving into the region from the northwest. It will roll through very quickly overnight and bring a swath of rain and snow showers by morning. Temps behind this will continue to drop, with snow showers and flurries becoming common throughout the day Tuesday.

That action should take us through Wednesday:

GFS

You can see the connection to moisture coming off Lake Michigan. Notice how the snow shield increases as it moves from Indiana into Kentucky? That’s because of the change in elevation. The air is forced to rise and that creates more snow showers and flurries.

This is all being pushed by a potent upper level system working across the region:

Euro

That’s the system that then forms a major winter storm across much of New England.

Can we get some accumulation? I suspect the answer is probably yes, but it might be one of those setups where it snows and sticks, then melts, … then snows and sticks, … then melts. … You get the idea. That said, slick spots might develop Tuesday night and Wednesday night across the east.

The models are then trying to develop another cutoff into the first half of next week. The European Model is probably giving too much separation between a system across our region and one well to our south:

Euro 3

Those two could try to get together for a much bigger system slowly spinning across our part of the world.

Let’s get back to where we are right now. Things are mainly dry Monday, with gusty winds and highs in the mid and upper 40s. You will notice quite a few clouds increasing ahead of our cold front that arrives Monday night.

Current temperatures

Make it a great Monday and take care.

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Some snowflakes possible in the week ahead

Good Sunday, everyone. We have breaking weather news: It’s dry! This is the first day of the month without appreciable precipitation falling in our region. The dry weather is coming with a seasonal brand of cold air, with even colder air on the way. That might be accompanied by some snowflakes.

Temps Sunday will start in the upper 20s and low 30s, with afternoon highs not too far from 40 degrees. Skies should become partly cloudy as the day wears on.

Current temperatures

The new week starts on a windy note, with highs in the mid and upper 40s. Clouds will increase ahead of a system diving in from the northwest. That is a potent upper-level disturbance showing up on the models:

Euro

That creates some fast-rising air that could lead to some light snow across Central and Eastern Kentucky by Tuesday morning. That will also coincide with the coldest air pushing in:

Euro 2

That will give the atmosphere another little kick in the pants and allow for snow showers and flurries to develop on a northwesterly wind flow.

You’ve seen me tweet several times about not underestimating a northwesterly wind flow. That’s the case again Tuesday and Wednesday. That’s especially true when combined with low temps. Well,  the European Model shows a second thermal min passing across eastern Kentucky late Wednesday:

Euro 3

That could keep snow showers and flurries holding tough during that time.

Highs Tuesday and Wednesday will run in the 30s, with lows deep into the 20s. Highs by Thursday head toward 40 then into the 40s by Friday. So much for another warm week. That will make 3 weeks in a row certain weather circles have told you a blowtorch was coming, yet it never showed up.

The pattern continues to progress toward one that probably turns very wintry in the week leading up to Christmas. Check out the setup coming from the super duper long range European Model. Note the big ridge going up out west and into Alaska:

Euro 3 Euro 4

That sets up perfectly for some winter fun and games during the holidays. We’ve had snow on Halloween and Thanksgiving. Might as well add Christmas and New Year’s to the list. ;)

Have a great Sunday and take care.

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Colder air follows the rain

Good Saturday, everyone. It’s another day of big weather changes across central and eastern Kentucky. As the heavy rains wind down, gusty winds will blow colder air back into the bluegrass state. This will lead us back into a pattern that could throw a little more winter our way in the coming week.

Temps on this Saturday will start well into the 50s, but drop through the 40s very quickly this afternoon. Most areas will be in the 30s during the evening as we turn the faucet off.

Sunday looks DRY! Yes, you read that correctly… DRY! It will be much colder with temps in the upper 20s to start and upper 30s to end. The NAM shows some pretty cold high temps:

NAM

The setup for early next week continues to get much of my attention. The European Model continues to spit our a healthy storm across the northeast…

EuroThat has a pocket of very cold air aloft passing on top of us Tuesday into Tuesday night. That would be a snow shower and flurry maker across central and eastern parts of the state.

The new GFS still isn’t nearly strong enough with the east coast low, but also indicates snow showers and flurries across central and eastern Kentucky…

GFSThe GFS is also keeping the normal to below normal temps around through all of next week. With a blocking high overtop that system, it really would not take very much to get that whole mess to shift farther west.

I’ve seen similar setups produce a clipper type system diving in behind a departing storm. That’s also something for us to watch for around Thursday or Friday.

Moral of the story… next week is not going to be a mild one around here.

Let’s get back to tracking today’s nasty weather:

 

 

Current temperatures

Have a great day and take care.

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Tracking heavy rain to start the weekend

Good Friday, everyone. A strong area of low pressure is rolling toward the state and is bringing a lot of rain with it. Rounds of heavy rainfall are a good bet through Saturday. Some pretty big temperature swings will be noted during the same time.

Here’s a breakdown of what to expect:

– Rain will be off and on Friday and then really increase Friday night and early Saturday.

– Some thunder will be possible as the low swings through.

– Rainfall through Saturday should average 1 to 2 inches in most areas. Local amounts of 3 inches can’t be ruled out.

– Highs will surge into the mid and upper 50s Friday. 60 is possible across the south.

– Colder air will then swing in behind the low Saturday. Readings start in the 50s then drop through the 40s, with 30s showing up by early evening.

– Winds will be very gusty during this time and could reach 40 mph.

I have you all set to do some Friday tracking:

 

 

Current temperatures

Hamburg Area from WKYT Studio
Lexington

I-75 @ Winchester Road Lexington

I-75 @ Winchester Road

I-75 @ Clays Ferry Bridge South Between Lexington and Richmond

US 60 @ US 127 Frankfort

US60 @ US127

US 60 @ US 460
Frankfort
US60 @ US460

I-75 MP 127
Georgetown
I75 NB @ MP 127

I-64 MP 97
Winchester
I-64 WB @ MP 97

While heavy rain rules the roost for the next few days, I keep watching an interesting setup next week. It could bring a round of winter weather to parts of our region and would hold any mild warm-up at bay.

The European Model continues to blow up a huge storm across the northeast:

Euro

That’s a cold look around here, but it keeps the main snow to our northeast. It would spawn some snow showers and flurries, however.

We will have to fine-tune that possibility as we get closer.

Have a great Friday and take care.

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The rain returns

Good Thursday, folks. Our brief break from the rain is over, and it’s back into a serious case of the soggies. Rain is likely through the first half of Saturday, and some of that might be on the heavy side.

Thursday’s rain will be a cold one, with highs in the upper 30s to low 40s across the entire region.

Current temperatures

Temps will rise overnight as a warm front lifts northward across the region. Highs on Friday will be well into the mid- and upper 50s on a strong southerly wind. There alsse will be rounds of heavy rain.

Some thunder and lightning will be possible as low pressure scoots across Kentucky on Friday night and Saturday morning. The future radar from the NAM certainly has the look of a thunder maker:

NAMHighs will be in the 50s to begin our Saturday but will fall quickly through the 40s during the afternoon. That’s when we will see a decrease in the rainfall as the low presses off to our east.

Sunday looks chilly but mainly dry, with highs in the 40s. Winds will be very gusty throughout the weekend.

We continue to watch for the possibility of some wintry weather by next Tuesday. The European Model continues to get a better handle of this setup with a big closed low diving in across our region:

Euro 2That spawns a convoluted setup at the surface with several areas of low pressure fighting amongst themselves:

EuroThat brings a swath of snow and snow showers to much of the region and all the way into parts of the south. The European Ensembles show a similar solution:

Euro 3

That suggests, at least, some snow from the Tennessee Valley into New England. That is nowhere near a given, but it’s something for us to watch for.

Have a great day and take care.

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Ugly weather continues

Good Wednesday to one and all. Ugly weather rolls on across the Bluegrass State. It’s a chilly period with a lot of clouds and rain. That rain is set to increase in a big way by the start of the weekend.

Our day starts with some drizzle and fog, with highs in the 30s. Colder air will blow in Wednesday afternoon and evening, and that might clear out some of the clouds. Might is the key word.

Even if we do clear out, clouds will quickly roll back in Thursday, with a cold rain pushing back in.

GFS 2

There is a chance for a touch of frozen precipitation early in the day across northern Kentucky. Highs for Thursday might struggle to get into the low 40s for most of Central and Eastern Kentucky. Take a look at the highs from the new GFS:

GFSFriday and Saturday will feature heavy rainfall of 1 to 3 inches in many areas. Highs might spike into the 50s with an area of low pressure working on top of the region. That departs and leaves us with highs in the 40s again Sunday and Monday. Have I mentioned that the 40s are normal highs this time of year? ;)

This brings us to an interesting setup for Tuesday and Wednesday. We will see energy diving in from the northwest, and that might be pushed by a touch of arctic air. There is some indication we get this energy to partially merge with some energy from the south. The new Canadian says this cuts off and forms a healthy storm system that affects the region:

Canadian

That’s rather interesting and is something the model has hinted at before. This is the type of setup that will result in models showing something like that: losing it, then showing it again. That is the extreme solution of all the possibilities.

The  GFS is finally seeing the trough digging in from the northwest, but it just doesn’t know what to do with it:

GFSMake it a great day and take care.

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A very wet period continues

Good Tuesday, folks. Chilly rain continues to fall across the Bluegrass State, and it’s a sign of things to come. The weather pattern through the weekend looks very wet and very ugly. Keep the umbrellas handy.

We will be seeing a huge temperature spread from north to south across the region Tuesday. Highs in far northern parts of the state will reach only the upper 30s while southeastern Kentucky will flirt with a high near 60 degrees. This leaves the Lexington metro area stuck in between, with highs generally in the low and mid-40s.

Rain will be common and that doesn’t bode well for folks heading into downtown Lexington for the evening Christmas parade.

Current temperatures

The showers will become much more scattered on Wednesday as temperatures hang in the 40s for most areas. Here’s a look at the Hi-Res NAM forecast:

NAM

Mainly dry weather might linger into Thursday as temps come down a few more degrees behind a weak cold front. I say “mainly dry” because a few showers could develop.

Friday and Saturday have washout written all over them. A moisture-rich system rolls our way during this time and could deliver heavy rainfall. The NAM future radar for Friday morning speaks volumes:

NAM 2I told you this was a wet pattern!

The winter weather is taking a break, but I’m seeing signs that it tries to fight back in by the middle of next week.

Make it a great day and take care.

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Freezing rain across the north

Good evening, everyone. If you’re traveling into far northern Kentucky you could run into some icy weather. Freezing rain is possible across the Covington area. That’s where we have a Freezing Rain Advisory tonight.

I leave you again with the tracking tools on tonight’s taste of winter weather…

WarningsA touch of sleet may be noted as far south as the Interstate 64 corridor as temps continue to drop into the low 30s.

Track away:

Current temperatures

Enjoy the evening and take care.

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