A winter looking pattern rolls in

Good Friday, everyone. The pattern setting up for the next week and change continues to look like one straight out of the heart of winter. Much colder than normal temperatures and a few flakes chances will dominate the pattern.

Let’s start with today and roll ahead. Temps will be n the mid and upper 40s with clouds on the increase. Those clouds are ahead of a low pressure system moving our way for Friday. Showers increase from the southwest by late this evening into tonight:

Our system rolling in from the southwest brings a cold rain that may even have a clap of thunder with it into Friday. Winds will be gusty as temps crash from northwest to southeast. That sets the stage for the possibility of a few flurries on a northwest wind Friday night.

The Hi Res NAM actually has a few snow showers streaking across the sky as early as Friday evening:

The European Model has a similar look:

Saturday is a very cold day with temps deep in the 20s with wind chills in the teens to start. High will be in the upper 30s and low 40s across the state.

The next system moves in here Monday into Tuesday and has a winter look to it. Arctic air is diving into the area with our low developing to our south and rolling northeast. That may bring rain and snow our way as early as Monday, with a better snow chance behind it Monday night and Tuesday.

The Canadian

The GFS and European Models are showing their respective biases. The Euro is too strong and too far west because it has trouble with holding on to energy too long as it ejects from the southwest. The GFS is usually too progressive, but still shows a good snow into eastern parts of the state:

The GFS Ensembles are showing the snow potential from our region through the northeast:

Have a great day and take care.

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A cold pattern ahead

Good Wednesday, folks. The pattern developing across the eastern half of the country looks like one straight out of winter. It’s one that turns us much colder than normal and may throw a few flakes our way.

Before these systems arrive, we have a fast-moving light shower maker rolling through today:

The next system arrives late Thursday into Friday as low pressure works just to our south and east. That brings a cold rain into the region, with snow just to our north. As that low passes by, northwesterly winds my spit out a few snowflakes Friday night or Saturday morning:

The GFS is showing the best chance for a few flakes across the mountains of eastern Kentucky:

Very cold air hangs into Saturday with highs struggling into the upper 30s and low 40s.

The signal for a winter looking storm system for early next week continues to show up. The European Model is brining arctic air into the eastern half of the country as low pressure works from the deep south and up the east coast. That could bring snow to our region:

Here’s the European Model snow map from now through the middle of next week:

The GFS isn’t quite making the complete phase of the storm, but is still showing some decent early season winter weather:

The GFS snow forecast through next week:

Lows next week may drop into the teens, with wind chills that are even colder. The cold air is highly anomalous for this time of year and it is almost always accompanied by, at least, some early season snow chances.

Make it a great day and take care.

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Gusty winds follow the storms

Good Tuesday, everyone. The severe storms are to our east, but very windy weather continues on this Election Day. These winds will usher in a chilly air that will likely turn cold by the end of the week as a very cold setup takes control of our weather.

Winds today are still in the 30-40mph range at times as skies become partly cloudy. A leftover shower or two is possible:

A weak system zips across the Tennessee Valley on Wednesday and may throw some chilly showers into the state. Highs range from the middle 40s to low 50s.

The next system is a stronger one and will move across the area Thursday into Friday. Rain develops ahead of this system, with gusty winds and a temp crash behind it. That may spit out some snowflakes, especially on a northwesterly wind flow by late Friday:

The GFS does show some flakes getting into the bluegrass state:

The Canadian does too, but in a different area:

That sets the stage for a very cold weekend with highs on Saturday struggling to get to 40 in many areas. Gusty winds make it feel even colder.

The next system has even colder air pushing in into early next week. The models go back and forth on just how big of a storm system this push of arctic air can help crank up. The latest GFS is pretty progressive, but shows periods of light snow and flurries:

Have a great day and take care.

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Severe weather possible tonight

Good Monday, folks. We have a potent storm system working into the region tonight and early Election Day. This may very well bring severe storms, high winds and heavy rains to much of the region.

Damaging winds, large hail and a few tornadoes are all possible across the state. The wind damage threat is very high, with power outages a good possibility. This may very well cause issues for a few polling places early Election Day.

These storms may also be major rain producers that cause flash flooding. Look at the model forecasts for rainfall from just Monday night:

GFS

Hi Res NAM

2″-3″ of rain may fall in just a few hours. Given how wet we are, that could easily cause flash flooding issues to develop. Here are your tracking toys for the day:

Current watches
Current Watches

Possible watch areas
Current MDs

The rain clears out pretty quickly on Tuesday as gusty winds remain for voters. Temps drop behind this system, with seasonally cold air for Wednesday and Thursday. Another system then moves our way with rain that may end as some snowflakes on Friday or Saturday:

That’s some very cold air coming in behind that front with highs that may stay in the 30s next weekend.

Another winter looking system then drops in after that:

This is the new version of the GFS and it’s much more in line with reality than the current GFS. Check out the snow numbers from that run over the next 10 days:

The GFS Ensembles are all over the snow potential over the next few weeks:

Shots of arctic air look to show up behind each system moving in.

Have a great day and take care.

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Severe storms threat to increase

Good Sunday to one and all. We have another powerful storm system targeting the region over the next few days. This storm will bring an increase in showers and thunderstorms, some of which may become severe.

Before the big show arrives, the opening act moves across the state today. This is a fairly weak front, but it will bring showers and gusty winds from west to east:

Low pressure develops across the Mississippi Valley on Monday and quickly heads toward the Great Lakes, strengthening along the way. Severe thunderstorms will develop ahead of this system from the Ohio Valley into parts of the deep south:

All modes of severe weather are possible from late Monday into Election Day morning. That includes damaging winds, large hail and a few torandoes.

Here’s the Monday Severe Weather Outlook from the Storm Prediction Center:

The Tuesday Outlook:

The damaging wind threat is especially high, with several models suggesting 60mph+ gusts in our region. The European Model gust forecast is crazy on Monday night:

The storms end very quickly Tuesday morning with gusty winds and chilly temps for the rest of the day.

That cold air continues to sink in as another low pressure develops and skirts by to our south. This may open the door for rain or a mix of rain and snow by the end of the week:

Make it a great day and take care.

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Severe weather threat ahead

Good Saturday to one and all. We have much better weather moving in today and that bodes well for the big UK football game at Kroger Field. Unfortunately, that nice weather doesn’t last very long as showers move in later Sunday. The focus, though, is on a severe weather threat lurking for late Monday into early Election Day.

Today’s weather looks pretty nice with a mix of sun and clouds and highs in the 50s. If you’re heading out to Kroger Field for the Cats and Dogs, plan on a quick drop into the upper 40s after halftime.

A weak cold front moves through here on Sunday, bringing a few showers from west to east as the day wears on:

I have no changes on the big storm system moving in here late Monday into Tuesday. This will be a powerhouse of a storm that brings high winds and severe storms into the region.

The models are all over this storm:

Winds with this may be absolutely crazy. Gusts of 60mph or greater are possible Monday night and early Tuesday. The European Model has hurricane force wind gusts showing up:

That’s just absurd and would be enough to cause major wind damage without the help of true severe storms.

Colder air surges in behind that with another system set to pounce by Thursday and Friday. Many models have been giving us a chance at the first snowflakes on the backside of this system:

That’s a lot of VERY cold air coming in behind this system. Check out the low temps next weekend:

Have a great day and take care.

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Chilly winds usher in a better weekend

Good Friday to one and all. We are rolling into the first weekend of November on a colder note with scattered showers around. The forecast does get better for most of the weekend and that’s all that matters for Wildcats fans heading out to Kroger Field on Saturday. Go Big Blue! 🙂

Once the weekend wraps up, another big storm system takes aim at the region.

Let’s begin with today and roll forward. Highs are generally in the upper 40s with mostly cloudy skies and a gusty northwest wind. Scattered showers are also possible through the evening. Here are your radars to track the showers:

Saturday’s weather looks really good with temps in the 30s to start and 50s in the afternoon. Winds will be a little breezy with a mix of sun and clouds. Fans out at Kroger Field should also dress for temps dropping into the 40s during the second half.

A few showers work in from west to east on Sunday, but the main show arrives just after that. Another big storm moves in late Monday into Tuesday. Heavy rain, strong storms and high winds are likely:

That could be a major wind maker. The European Model has some absolutely insane gusts showing up:

A much colder setup follows for much of the country with more and more winter weather showing up. For the first time, we have both the European Ensembles and GFS Ensembles showing snow chances getting into our region at some point in the next two weeks:

Euro

GFS

Make it a great Friday and take care.

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November starts with a lot of rain and wind

Good Thursday, everyone. Rounds of heavy rain and wind are on tap as we open up the month of November. This continues to be part of a very active setup that may throw another big storm our way early next week, just in time for Election Day.

Our Flood Watch rolls on:

The Greatest Risk area will pick up a general 2″-4″ of rain during this time, with locally higher amounts up to 6″ possible. Flooding and flash flooding will be possible. As I’ve mentioned on many occasions, there is a VERY sharp cutoff on the eastern and southeastern side of the heavy rain. That means areas of the east and southeast may not pick up very much at all.

Winds will continue to be an issue today with gusts of 40mph or greater showing up…

Here’s the first edition of your November tracking tools:

Leftover chilly showers will be with us on Friday, but things clean up for Saturday. Another shower maker moves in later Sunday with another big storm system due in here Tuesday:

Heavy rain, strong storms and high winds will again be possible. Check out the forecast gusts off the European Model:

That’s followed up by a surge of cold air and the potential for another system moving in. The European Model has the first flakes late next week:

Check out the cold on the model behind that:

Make it a great day and take care.

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Tracking a big storm system into the region

Good Wednesday and Happy Halloween! As we close out the month of October, we are tracking a big storm into the region. This will bring rounds of heavy rain and gusty winds into the first few days of November.

A Flood Watch has been issued for much of the region from Halloween through Friday morning. Here’s a look:

Now that we are upon the event, it’s time to hone in a little more on who has the greatest potential for flooding issues. This is a fine line between not much rain and a ton of rain. Here’s the current threat map:

As you can see, the farther west and north, the more rain you are likely to pick up. The farther south and east, amounts will be MUCH lower.

Winds are also a major player over the next few days. Gusts may reach 40mph on Halloween with gusts of 50mph or greater possible Thursday into Thursday night.

Much colder air sweeps in behind this system for Friday with another system rounding the bend of the deep trough on top of us. That keeps chilly showers going through the day and into Saturday morning:

That moves away very quickly, with another shower maker moving into the western half of the state as early as late Saturday. Another powerhouse of a storm system by Tuesday and Wednesday:

That could be another major rain, storm and wind maker for our region. Behind that? The bottom falls out:

I leave you with your local Halloween weather tracking tools:

Make it a great day and take care.

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Flood threat and high winds ahead

Good Tuesday, folks. Our monster of a Halloween storm continues to roll toward the bluegrass state. This will bring the threat for flooding rains and high winds for Halloween into the first day of November.

Here’s a breakdown of what to expect:

  • A cold front works into the region and slows down on Halloween.
  • That allows for an area of low pressure to develop along the boundary and roll right on top of us.
  • Rounds of heavy rain producing showers and thunderstorms rumble across the state.
  • Heavy rains of 1″-4″ are likely for Wednesday and Thursday, with local amounts up to 6″ possible.
  • Flooding and flash flooding issues may develop during this time.
  • High winds will be a big player, especially Wednesday night and Thursday. Gusts may exceed 50mph.
  • Along and east of the track of the low, a few strong to severe storms are possible. The best chance of that may wind up across the central and east.

Here’s a look at the area I’m highlighting for the best chance for high water issues:

The European Model has a potent storm strengthening right on top of Kentucky:

That track would bring a ton of rain, high winds and a few strong storms to the region. The rain forecast from the Euro is a little tighter with the gradient:

The GFS is very similar, but a little farther east:

The wind threat continues to increase. Gusts on Halloween are greater than 40mph on the European:

The Euro then takes winds to 50mph or greater in some areas Thursday into Thursday night:

Make it a great day and take care.

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