Pleasant temps settle in

Good Tuesday, everyone. We have a breath of fresh air blowing into the region as cooler and drier air sweeps in. This will feel great after the recent heat and humidity.

Speaking of the heat, this was the first time since 1936 that Lexington had 5 days in a row of 85 degrees or higher this early in the year. That’s pretty astounding, and it helps illustrate how extreme is the new normal.

The heat is gone and is being replaced by much better air today. Highs will reach the upper 60s and low 70s in most of central and eastern Kentucky.

Wednesday will be another very nice day. We will even start things out in the 40s before warming it back into the upper 60s and low 70s. Skies should say mostly sunny.

Readings by Thursday begin to warm with highs in the upper 70s to around 80. Humidity levels will also increase and we should see some afternoon clouds. Those same clouds will then produce scattered showers and storms on Friday:

Euro 4That’s the beginning of a warm, humid and stormy setup that takes us into the coming weekend and early next week. Highs will generally range from the upper 70s to low 80s.

The pattern looks to turn much cooler for the middle and end of next week. Some of the models suggest temps well below normal for a few days:

Euro 3Have a great day and take care.

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Watching for scattered severe storms

Good Monday, folks. A strong cold front is working into the region and could bring a few strong or severe storms to the area. Once this front blows through, it’s goodbye summer for a while.

This is not going to be a washout of a day. Afternoon highs are likely to soar well into the mid- and upper 80s with partly sunny skies. There is the chance of isolated storms during that time.

A more likely chance for some storms will develop later Monday and into the evening. That’s when some of the boomers could contain hail and high winds. Winds will be gusty all day and could hit 30 mph at times away from storms.

Much cooler and drier air moves in for the next couple of days. Check out the projected highs from the GFS:

GFS Temps

Temps will rise by the end of the week,. with scattered showers and storms developing.

Let’s get back to where we are Monday and track some storms:

Monday’s risk area

Latest Day 1 convective outlook

Current watches

Current Watches

Possible watch areas Current MDs

 

 

Have a great day and take care.

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A hot and humid Mother’s Day

Good Sunday and Happy Mother’s Day. Momma’s big day will be dominated by more of the same weather… Heat and humidity. A few storms could also fire up and that could be a sign of things to come.

A cold front moves in on Monday and that could spark some strong to severe thunderstorms. Here’s a look at the risk area:

Special 3

This doesn’t look like a big outbreak of severe storms, but it’s worth keep an eye on.

Much cooler air will come in behind our front as it sweeps to our east on Tuesday. Morning showers will give way to afternoon sun with gusty winds and highs in the 70s. It gets even cooler for Wednesday with highs in the upper 60s and low 70s. Lows could hit the 40s for Wednesday and Thursday.

Warmer and more humid air fights back in by late week and that may bring an increase in showers and thunderstorms:

GFS

Temps could be back into the 80s next weekend into early the following week.

Let’s track whatever weather Mother Nature is throwing our way on her big day:

 

 

Hamburg Area from WKYT Studio
Lexington

I-75 MP 127
Georgetown
I75 NB @ MP 127

US 60 @ US 460
Frankfort
US60 @ US460

Have a great day and take care.

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Tracking an increase in storms

Good Saturday to one and all. Our Mother’s Day weekend is here and it looks like Mother Nature is stealing the show. Tropical heat and humidity will lead to an increase in showers and thunderstorms over the next few days. That potential may build into a severe weather threat by Monday.

High temps today and Sunday will be in the 80s with even more humidity showing up. Scattered showers and storms will develop, especially during the afternoon and evening hours. Any storm that goes up could be strong with torrential rain and a lot of lightning.

The threat for storms may really increase on Monday. That’s when a strong cold front moves in from the west. This front has much cooler air behind it and that change in air masses could lead to severe weather.

Temps for the middle of next week will drop into the upper 60s and low 70s for highs.

The models are then bringing the threat for showers and storms back in here by the end of the week:

GFSI leave you with your storm tracking toys:

 

 

Make it a great day and take care.

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A weekend of summer weather

Good Friday, folks. Our summer weather pattern will roll on through the weekend. That means a continuation of the heat and humidity and the increasing threat of some scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Highs today will hit the mid and upper 80s in most areas. The humidity will make it feel even hotter than that. Isolated showers and storms will develop as the day wears on. Any storm that occurs could contain a lot of lightning and heavy rain.

There’s a slightly greater chance of seeing scattered storms Saturday. The future radar from the NAM is all over this potential:

NAMThe likelihood of storms continues to climb as we head into Sunday and Monday. That action will be ahead of a cold front that slowly works into town. This will give us the small chance of some strong or severe weather during this time.

Temps behind that front are likely drop by several degrees. The GFS is the coolest of the bunch and shows some areas having a tough time reaching 70 by Wednesday:

GFS TEMPS 1Enjoy your steamy day and take care.

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Thermometers start to sizzle

Good Thursday, folks. Our recent run of hot and humid weather looks to continue into the weekend. The overall look of this setup continues to be straight out of mid- to late summer, but cooler changes are showing up next week.

Highs Thursday will reach the mid-80s in many areas with the muggy factor really coming into play. Highs in the upper 80s are possible for areas that dodge any popup shower or thunderstorm:

Hamburg Area from WKYT Studio
Lexington

I-75 MP 127
Georgetown
I75 NB @ MP 127

US 60 @ US 460
Frankfort
US60 @ US460

Copy this forecast and play it again on Friday.

Saturday has the potential to give us the hottest day of the week. Some of the models are forecasting highs to make a run at the 90-degree mark.

GFS TEMPS 1That’s some serious heat for this early in the season. Throw in the high humidity, and the sweat factor will be way, way up.

The threat of scattered showers and storms will increase later Sunday as a cold front marches our way. That looks to arrive Monday with an increasing threat of showers and storms:

EuroCooler air will follow that for the middle of next week, with highs in the upper 60s to low 70s.

Enjoy your Thursday and take care.

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Our summer pattern rolls on

Good Wednesday to one and all. Summertime continues to get off to a super-early start across Central and Eastern Kentucky. Readings through early next week will run much above normal as humidity increases.

With the increase in humidity will come the increase in isolated showers and thunderstorms. This doesn’t look terribly widespread through the weekend, so it’s more of the afternoon and evening variety.

One or two of those might try to pop out there Wednesday as afternoon highs reach the middle 80s in many areas.

Hamburg Area from WKYT Studio
Lexington

I-75 MP 127
Georgetown
I75 NB @ MP 127

US 60 @ US 460
Frankfort
US60 @ US460

Thursday and Friday will be very similar to what we have out there Wednesday.

Saturday could find highs hitting the upper 80s in many spots:

GFS TEMPS 1

I wouldn’t be surprised if we get some 90-degree reports through this period. If you think that’s hot, check out the Deep South. Upper 90s are showing up on that map. Ouch.

A strong cold front works in early next week with an increase in showers and thunderstorms:

EuroSome strong storms will be possible with that type of setup. Much cooler air will then sweep in behind that front for the middle and end of next week.

Have a great day and take care.

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Warm and humid weather takes control

Good Tuesday, everyone. Summertime air has fully taken control of our weather across Central and Eastern Kentucky. Throw in an increase in humidity, and things are going to feel awfully toasty.

Highs Tuesday will top out in the low 80s for most of the region under a partly sunny sky:

Temps for Wednesday and Thursday will really take off. Some areas could hit the mid- and upper 80s. Throw in an increase in humidity levels, and it will feel more like July than the first full week of May.

The overall setup will continue to feature a big ridge of very warm high pressure across our area. That pattern looks to be stuck in place through the weekend as a possible tropical system along the southeast keeps things from moving much:

EuroEventually, that system will give way to a cold front working in from the plains. That will spawn isolated storms late this week and into the weekend. A greater risk of  showers and storms will move in early next week.

Until then, enjoy our early taste of summer.

Take care.

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May off to a warm start

Good Monday, everyone. It’s the first full week of May, but the weather pattern looks and feels more like the middle of summer. Temps are running well above average, and that should continue through the rest of the week.

Daytime highs should range from the low to mid-80s through Friday. There’s a shot at highs in the upper 80s by the second half of the week, and that would put us close to records.

Is this warm week a signal for what’s to come?

The latest CFS suggests the rest of May is warmer than normal around here:

CFS

The same model run then reverses that trend for the first half of June:

CFS 2

The rainfall forecast from the CFS through the middle of June shows about what one would expect with the wet year we have going:

CFS 3

I’m working on the summer forecast for WKYT and will have it out in another week or so. A strengthening second-year El Nino and the impact it will have on our weather is the focus of that forecast.

Make it a great Monday and take care.

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Warm and mainly dry days ahead

Good Sunday to one and all. We’re putting the wraps on an absolutely gorgeous Derby weekend in the bluegrass state. Warm temps and plenty of sunshine will be back with us today, and it only gets warmer from here.

Highs today will top out in the upper 70s to around 80 with a partly to mostly sunny sky.

Hamburg Area from WKYT Studio
Lexington

I-75 MP 127
Georgetown
I75 NB @ MP 127

US 60 @ US 460
Frankfort
US60 @ US460

Thermometers will should hit the 80-85 degree range for highs for most of the upcoming week. That warm air should be accompanied by mainly dry conditions.

The pattern features a deep dip in the jet stream with a warm ridge of high pressure across the Ohio Valley:

NAM

One of the things keeping the pattern pretty steady through the week is a possible tropical system developing off the southeastern seaboard. That shows up very well on the NAM simulated radar:

NAM 2

What does all this mean for us? A summer look and feel to the weather until further notice. The only real change during the week ahead is an increase in humidity for the second half of the week. That would lead to the potential for some isolated showers and thunderstorms.

Sounds a lot like summer to me.

Have a great Sunday and take care.

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