Chris Bailey's Kentucky Weather

Good Friday, everyone. We have a cold front working across the commonwealth on this Friday and this will touch off numerous showers and thunderstorms. The is the first of two fronts we’re tracking. The second one arrives late Saturday and will deliver an air mass that may threaten record lows.

Heavy rain will be possible with the action that goes up today. There is even the chance for a few strong or severe storms… especially across the north. Let’s track it all:

Today’s Risk Area

Current Watches

Showers and storms will slowly wind down later tonight into early Saturday as cooler air blows in. Winds will be fairly gusty with temps in the 60s for highs tomorrow. We could still see an isolated shower or thunderstorm.

The next front swings in Saturday evening and that brings the chill for all the moms. Her big day will feature a mix of sun and clouds with temps starting in the upper 30s and low 40s and ending in the high 50s to near 60.

Take a look at all the cold air pouring in for Sunday and Monday:

37 is the record low temperature for Lexington on Monday. It continues to look like we will break that with readings into the frosty low and mid 30s.

This cold shot will be short lived and we will hit the middle 80s by next Wednesday.

Have a great Friday and take care.

Good Thursday to one and all. We continue to be stuck in a familiar pattern: fog to start the day, some sun and clouds followed by booming showers and thunderstorms. That’s how things have played out over the past few days, and that’s how today should play out.

The showers and storms today will probably fire up during the heart of the afternoon and into the evening. These will be heavy rain-makers and might put down some small hail. Cloud-to-ground lightning will be noteworthy once again.

Let’s get to tracking:

Current temperatures

Temps will top out near 80 degrees, and you will notice a little more humidity in the air.

Our attention will then turn toward a couple of cold fronts to move into the region in the coming days. The first will swing in late Friday, with an increase in showers and storms. Some of the storms might end up becoming strong or severe.

The second front will arrive Saturday, with some scattered showers and storms. Winds will be gusty, and temps will start to drop off. That will become the issue Sunday and Monday. Check out the colder than normal air surging in here:

That means highs for Mother’s Day and Monday might have a hard time hitting 60 degrees. This also willset us up for possible frost and record lows by Monday morning.

Warmer air will then flood in by the middle of next week.

Have a good one and take care.

Good Wednesday, gang. The forecast for the next few days is going to seem awfully familiar: highs in the 70s, with scattered showers and thunderstorms. This will add to our already impressive spring rainfall totals.

Lexington is running more than 4 inches above normal for the year. That’s a far cry from the same time last year, when we were more than 2 inches below normal. That means we are about 6 inches wetter than we were at the same time last year.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will return to the region today. These will put down additional heavy rain in some areas. I can’t rule out small hail.

Let’s track it:

Current temperatures

Additional showers and thunderstorms will be possible Thursday, as highs head toward the 80-degree mark.

Friday can feature more of a widespread thunderstorm and should give us the best chance at seeing strong or severe storms. That’s something to keep in mind over the next few days.

The GFS is pretty aggressive on rainfall through this weekend:

Much colder air will come in behind the rain and storms and will arrive by Sunday. Temps will drop into the 50s for highs with partly sunny skies. That may set us up for some frost and lows in the 30s by Monday morning.

Have a great Wednesday and take care.

Good Tuesday to one and all. We have a big time warm up rolling our way for the rest of the week. This will make it feel more and more like May… especially when we throw a little humidity into the mix. This combo will also lead to an increase in thunderstorms to round out the week.

Don’t get too attached to the warm temps… it all comes crashing down over the weekend.

Temps today will top out in the upper 60s to around 70 across our region. The upper level low to our south will continue to throw scattered showers and thunderstorms our way.

That slow moving system continues to work away from us and that allows for temps to take off. Take a look at the forecast high temps from the GFS:

We may flirt with 80 degrees by Thursday and Friday. A weak cold front will be located to the north of the Ohio River during this time. That will combine with the increase in humidity to give us a daily threat for scattered boomers.

The highest chance for storms will be from late Thursday through Saturday and a few of those may be on the strong side.

Speaking of strong… a powerful cold front sweeps in over the weekend. That will have a big time push of cold air coming in behind it and may set the stage for frosty conditions by Sunday night. We have a shot at challenging record lows early next week.

Extreme is the new normal.

Make it a great day and take care.

Good Monday, everyone. We’re still dealing with the slow-moving system that has drenched the Bluegrass State over the past few days. Rain totals of 1 to 3 inches have been common since Saturday, and we have additional showers out there today.

The pattern for the second half of the week will turn more toward a typical May look and feel. That means an increase in temps, humidity and thunderstorms.

Let’s start with the short term forecast:

Scattered showers will continue today, with gusty winds and highs in the mid- and upper 50s. Any breaks in the cloud cover would allow highs to hit the low 60s.

Highs on Tuesday will climb into the mid and upper 60s, with the a smaller threat of a shower or thunderstorm.

Warmer and more humid air pushes into the state on Wednesday, and that will promote the development of scattered thunderstorms for the end of the week into the weekend.

That could come to a booming end by Sunday as another powerful cold front works our way. Check out the push of cold air showing up on the GFS:

It’s been that kind of spring!

Make it a great Monday and take care.

Good Sunday everyone. The Derby Day forecast played out as expected with rain slowly working eastward across the region. Now that it’s here… it doesn’t want to leave and that may become a problem for some areas. This slow moving system will continue to bring heavy rain into the early part of the new week.

The axis of heaviest rain today will be oriented across central and parts of eastern Kentucky. We’re on the northern edge of a cutoff area of low pressure and that can put down a lot of water.

Rainfall on Saturday averaged from a half to just over 2″ for parts of central and western Kentucky. The models are pretty trumped up for another 1″-3″ of rain today into Monday. Take a look at a juicy run of the NAM:

The drawn out period of this rain event should preclude widespread flooding, but local high water issues may become a problem today and tonight. That may especially be the case across a water logged south central sections of the bluegrass state.

The rain will continue into Monday and then will become more scattered by Tuesday as milder air works back in for the middle and end of next week. That’s when thermometers head back into the 70s. It’s also the time when rounds of thunderstorms may fire up. Yep… more rain is possible by Thursday or Friday.

Let’s get busy tracking today’s heavy rains:

Have a great Sunday and take care.

Good Saturday and Happy Derby Day. The eyes of the world are on the bluegrass state today and our weather continues to look a little nasty. Heavy rain will slowly work across the state today and I have you set to follow it all with a ton of Derby tracking toys.

Rain will engulf the western half of the state today and then slowly work eastward this afternoon and evening. The rain will move into Churchill Downs by late morning or early afternoon and likely continue through the call to the post.

Steady rains may not make it to the Lexington area until the second part of the afternoon. Eastern and northern sections will likely stay dry all day. Temps will hit the 60s in the east and be much colder the farther west you go into the rain.

Heavy rain will then become common across much of the area tonight and Sunday. A FLOOD WATCH has been issued for south central Kentucky during this time. That’s an area of the state that received flooding rains last weekend and another 2″ or 3″ of rain may cause more high water this weekend. Most of central and eastern Kentucky should see a good 1″-3″ of rain through Monday.

Let’s get to tracking:

I-64 @ 3rd St. Exit
Louisville

Downtown Louisville @ 2nd & Broadway
Louisville

I-64 @ I-264
Louisville

I-264 @ Freedom Way
Near Louisville International Airport

Current temperatures

Make it a great Saturday and take care.

Happy Kentucky Oaks Day! This is a magical time in the Bluegrass State, as the eyes of the world are on the commonwealth. Kentucky Derby weekend is a chance for us to showcase what’s great about our region. Part of that showcase involves great spring weather. Maybe we’ll find an alternative to that this Derby Day.

Rain will increase from west to east on Saturday, and that is likely to set the stage for rain moving into Churchill Downs by afternoon. The increase in rain will bring a decrease in thermometer readings, with temps falling into the upper 40s and low 50s for the soggy areas.

Here’s what I’m expecting to play out for the entire state:

Areas that stay mainly dry will see highs in the 60s and might see some sunshine. Rain will continue to overspread the region Saturday night and Sunday as colder air blows in. Some rainfall amounts could total 1 to 3 inches through Monday, especially in the west and south.

What about today’s weather for the Oaks? We will have a mix of sun and clouds, with highs again in the 70s. I can’t rule out a shower or thunderstorm during the afternoon and evening. If you’re going to the Oaks, take a poncho to be safe.

Let’s get busy tracking today’s weather:

Current temperatures

I-64 @ 3rd St. Exit
Louisville

Downtown Louisville @ 2nd & Broadway
Louisville

I-64 @ I-264
Louisville

I-264 @ Freedom Way
Near Louisville International Airport

Have a great Kentucky Oaks Day and take care.

Good Thursday, folks. We are enjoying one heck of a start to the month of May. Highs in the low 80s and sunshine have combined to give us a taste of early summer weather across the Bluegrass State. The good days are numbered, and we’re tracking a case of ugly stuff rolling in here for the big weekend ahead of us.

Let’s start out with where we are today. HIghs will head toward 80 degrees, with a mix of sun and clouds. There is the smallest threat of a scattered storm or two.

Your daily dose of tracking toys:

Current temperatures

Friday continues to look mainly dry at Churchill Downs and across Central Kentucky. Highs will be in the 70s with another threat of a shower or storm. Most of the rain associated with our potent storm system will hang just to the west.

That won’t hang there long and should roll eastward on Saturday. The GFS Ensemble Mean shows the progress of the rain and how it hangs around into Sunday:

The farther east you live, the better the weather will be on Saturday. Once the rain moves in, temps will tank and might drop toward 50 degrees by late Derby Day. The rain on Sunday will be accompanied by breezy conditions and highs struggling into the 50s.

That slow-mover of a storm will continue to keep us on the ugly side into early next week as cool weather continues.

Have a wonderful Thursday and take care.

Good Wednesday, everybody. What a weather day we just had. Tuesday was beyond awesome, and today will try to do it a little better. The warm weather is going to hold on for a few more days, and then we watch the big change roll our way for our big weekend.

Highs today will head into the lower 80s with a partly sunny sky. I can’t rule out a stray shower or thunderstorm in the summertime atmosphere.

Current temperatures

The same can be said for Thursday as highs hang around into the low 80s.

The slow-moving storm system we’ve been yapping about over the past week or so continues to take aim at the region over the weekend. This bowling  ball of low pressure will slide in from west to east late Friday and Saturday. Here’s how the GFS sees the increase in moisture:

We may get through Oaks Day with much of the rain hanging just to the west. That rain will then roll eastward for Kentucky Derby Day.

The cooler air will be behind that and show up as we end the weekend:

It’s all about timing for our Oaks and Derby forecast, and we will continue to focus on that in the coming days.

Have a good one and take care.