A cold front moves in

Good Tuesday to one and all. Stop me if you’ve heard this one before: More rounds of showers and thunderstorms are pushing across Kentucky. There is a bit of good news: Our temps are set to decrease in the next couple of days.

Much of the region remains under a flash flood watch Tuesday. Rounds of showers and storms will continue to put down some heavy rains across our region. Keep a close eye on creeks and streams.

Some of the storms could be on the strong side and produce damaging winds. I will have your trackers in a bit.

The cold front responsible for Tuesday’s action drops into Tennessee on Wednesday and stalls out. That should keep the threat of showers and storms going across our southern sections into Thursday. The NAM shows this well:

NAM 3Temps do come down quite a bit behind this boundary. Check out the forecast highs from the NAM for Wednesday:

NAMThrow in lower humidity, and there will be a rather pleasant feel to the air.

Humidity and storm chances will both rise going into the weekend.

Let’s get back to your regularly scheduled program of tracking storms:

Latest Day 1 convective outlook

Current watches

Current Watches

Possible watch areas Current MDs

 

 

Enjoy your Tuesday and take care.

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Flash flooding and severe weather possible

Good Monday, everyone. Here we go again! It’s another busy weather day taking shape across Central and Eastern Kentucky. Rounds of showers and thunderstorms might cause all kinds of problems, including damaging wind and flooding rain.

Storms will continue to come at us in clusters through Tuesday. There’s even the potential for one or more mesoscale convective systems to work across Kentucky. These are huge complexes of severe weather makers.

Damaging wind and large hail will be possible with any storms.

The flash-flood threat continues to be about as high as it can possibly get. Additional rainfall amounts might average 1 to 3 inches over the next couple of days. Much higher amounts will be possible on the local scale. Significant flash flooding is possible.

A few storms might linger Tuesday night and Wednesday.

Temps for the rest of the week and into the weekend should be cooler than what they have been lately.  The GFS Ensemble shows a little cooler than normal over the next five days:

GFS

In the short term, it’s all about the potential for severe storms and flash flooding. I have the blog set as your one-stop shop to track the action:

Latest Day 1 convective outlook

Current watches

Current Watches

Possible watch areas Current MDs

 

 

Have a great Monday and take care.

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The flash-flood threat is back

Good Sunday to one and all. We’re wrapping up a rather steamy and stormy weekend with … more steam and storms. Rounds of boomers will continue to blow across the region Sunday, continuing the pattern we’ve been in.

Clusters will be possible Sunday, and they could lead to flash flooding. Damaging winds will be possible in the stronger storms.

A cold front moves in Monday and slams on the brakes. That allows for waves of low pressure to develop along it:

Special 2

Strong storms and torrential rains will be possible through the first half of next week. That could lead to additional flooding in some areas.

That boundary will then try to slip to our south for the second half of the week and next weekend. If that’s the case, some nice air should move back in:

Special 3

If that front doesn’t push as far south and hangs around here even longer, nothing good could come from that scenario.

I will have another update Sunday night. Here are your tracking tools for the day:

Sunday’s risk area

Latest Day 1 convective outlook

Current watches

Current Watches

Possible watch areas Current MDs

 

 

Make it a great Sunday and take care.

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Storms won’t go away

Good Saturday, everyone. Rounds of showers and thunderstorms pounded parts of the region once again last night. After a brief break in the action, the stormy pattern has returned to central and eastern Kentucky.

The overnight storms have put Lexington in the top ten for wettest July’s on record. We are currently at number 8 with more than 8 inches of rain. With two weeks left in the month, we may make a run at the top spot.

Steamy temps will be around today and Sunday. Highs hit 90-95 in the west and near 90 in the east. Heat index values will be well above 100 in the west and near 100 elsewhere. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop and some could be strong with very heavy rain.

Sunday’s forecast will be a carbon copy of what we have out there today.

A cold front moves in and slows down on Monday. Booming showers and thunderstorms will be possible along this front. Damaging winds and heavy rainfall will be possible.

Waves of low pressure look to develop and slide eastward across the region for the rest of next week. I don’t like the looks of how this is trying to set up. Additional rounds of flash flooding will be possible during this time.

I have you all set to track today’s action:

Today’s risk area

Latest Day 1 convective outlook

Current watches

Current Watches

Possible watch areas Current MDs

 

Have a great day and take care.

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A steamy weekend ahead

Good Friday to one and all. Thermometer readings are set to really increase over the next few days, and that means the sweat factor is back up. High humidity levels will really add to our weather woes with the potential for a boomer or two.

Today will feature temps hitting the upper 80s to around 90 degrees in most areas. Heat index values may reach the mid and upper 90s. Isolated storms will try to develop as the day wears on.

Hamburg Area from WKYT Studio
Lexington

I-75 MP 127
Georgetown
I75 NB @ MP 127

US 60 @ US 460
Frankfort
US60 @ US460

The chance for scattered storms will be increase as we head into the weekend. Temps should be similar to what we have out there today. Basically, it’s typical summertime air.

Storm chances may ramp up early next week as a cold front moves in. That front then slows down and allows for a wave of low pressure to develop along it. That may mean some additional rounds of heavy rains…

GFS RainThat would continue our crazy wet pattern. Take a look at how far above normal we are for the past month and for the year to date:

Radar rain 1

Radar rain 2Have a great day and take care.

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Some steam and storms ahead

Good Thursday, everyone. We have another nice day in the works across Central and Eastern Kentucky. It won’t stick around long, as steamy air and scattered storms return for the weekend.

Let’s start with the pleasant part of the weather show. Highs Thursday will be in 80 to 85 degrees under a partly sunny sky. There is the smallest chance of a popcorn shower going up across the southeast, but most areas stay dry.

Hamburg Area from WKYT Studio
Lexington

I-75 MP 127
Georgetown
I75 NB @ MP 127

US 60 @ US 460
Frankfort
US60 @ US460

Highs Friday will hit the upper 80s to near 90, but the humidity will make it feel much, much hotter. Heat index numbers in the upper 90s might show up across much of the region.

That similar temperature trend should carry us into the weekend. This is the same time we find scattered showers and storms moving back into the region. Here’s what the GFS is cooking up:

GFSA cold front will be move in by Monday and Tuesday, with an increase in showers and storms:

GFS 2That front would also knock our temperatures back into the normal or slightly below-normal range for a couple of days.

Have a great Thursday and take care.

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Better weather blowing in

Good Wednesday to one and all. Our supercharged stormy setup is taking a bit of a break over the next few days, and that’s exactly what the weather doctor ordered. Devastating flash floods have taken lives and destroyed homes and property across our region.

The 2.05 inchesof rain that fell in Lexington on Tuesday is the most rain to ever fall in the city on July 14. Lexington is on the way to a third straight summer among the 10 wettest on record. That has never happened before. Total rainfall in much of Central and Eastern Kentucky is now more than a foot above normal for the year.

We need a break!

That’s exactly what we look to be getting over the next few days. We do run the risk of isolated showers and storms, but I don’t anticipate any additional problems. We will see a lot of dry times out there Wednesday and Thursday, with highs ranging from 80 to 85 degrees with a mix of sun and clouds.

Hamburg Area from WKYT Studio
Lexington

I-75 MP 127
Georgetown
I75 NB @ MP 127

US 60 @ US 460
Frankfort
US60 @ US460

Friday and the weekend will see some really steamy air moving back in. Highs might approach 90 on any given day, but the humidity will be the real issue. Heat index values in the upper 90s will be possible. Scattered showers and storms might develop during this time. Shocked? Didn’t think so.

This steamy pattern looks to move in and out fairly quickly as another dip develops in the jet stream by early next week:

Euro 2

That would bring our temps back into the normal or slightly below-normal range. Oh yeah: More rounds of showers and storms will be possible.

Have a great Wednesday and take care.

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Another day of severe storms and flooding

Good Tuesday, everyone. This is another day of severe storms and flash flooding across our part of the world. Lines of showers and storms continue to push into the region, and these can have a devastating impact. The flash-flood threat continues to be through the absolute roof.

Deadly flash flooding hit parts of Eastern Kentucky on Monday. … Just unbelievable flooding, and my fear is we see something similar somewhere in our region again Tuesday. One round of thunderstorms moves through early in the morning, with another round developing Tuesday afternoon and evening. Damaging winds and flooding rains will be again be possible.

I have your tracking tools for the day:

Tuesday’s risk area

Latest Day 1 convective outlook

Current watches

Current Watches

Possible watch areas Current MDs

 

 

I will keep you updated all day long on WKYT-TV. Take care.

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Significant severe weather possible

Good Monday, everyone. We are facing the potential of a major outbreak of severe weather across Central and Eastern Kentucky. Rounds of thunderstorms will continue to blast our region Monday and Tuesday, and they could cause some serious problems.

Clusters of thunderstorms continue to dive in from the northwest early Monday. Damaging winds, a ton of lightning and torrential rains will be possible with the early-day action.

A big complex of thunderstorms will then develop to our northwest later Monday and come rolling in through the night. This could bring widespread wind damage.

We do have the threat of a few tornadoes to develop Monday afternoon night. That will especially be the case if some supercell storms fire up ahead of the complex of storms.

Tuesday should find additional clusters of big storms developing across our region. Severe weather will again be possible.

The flash-flood threat continues to run incredibly high through Tuesday. Thunderstorms can drop several inches of rain in a short time. This has the potential to inundate a few areas. Please keep a very close eye on this high-water potential.

As always, I have the blog set up for all your severe weather-tracking needs:

 

 

Monday’s risk area

Latest Day 1 convective outlook

Current watches

Current Watches

Possible watch areas Current MDs

Hamburg Area from WKYT Studio
Lexington

I-75 MP 127
Georgetown
I75 NB @ MP 127

US 60 @ US 460
Frankfort
US60 @ US460

Have a great day and take care.

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Severe weather threat returns

Good Sunday, everyone. We’ve had a ton of severe weather and flooding rains over the past few weeks, but  we had a small break on Saturday. That break is now long gone as rounds of strong to severe thunderstorms blow in from the northwest..

Thunderstorm clusters will develop to our northwest tonight and roll into the region. This is a pattern that will throw round after round of strong to severe storms our way today into much of next week.

Here’s the setup and what to expect:

Special 2There is a lot of nasty showing up with this kind of setup. Our ground is waterlogged and can’t hold very much water. These storms will be big time rain producers and could drop several inches of rain on our region. That could cause significant flash flooding in some areas.

The storms will also bring the potential for more rounds of damaging winds. Keep a weather eye out in the coming days.

Here are all the severe weather tracking tools you need for the day:

 

 

Today’s risk area

Latest Day 1 convective outlook

Current watches

Current Watches

Possible watch areas Current MDs

I will have updates as needed. Have a great day and take care.

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