A brief shot of chill before more spring

Good Tuesday to one and all. We are dealing with a couple of systems affecting the region over the next few days. These will bring a few showers that introduce a blast of chilly air. If you’re  fan of spring, no worries; it comes back in a big way this weekend.

Our day starts with a slight chance for light rain and light snow in the north, but that quickly moves away.

Our southern system then zips eastward, bringing some showers across the southern half of Kentucky. Farther north, the chance is smaller, with a mix of sun and clouds. Highs should range from the upper 40s to low 50s:

Winds will be gusty as colder air then filters in behind a cold front overnight. Highs Wednesday should be in the upper 30s to near 40, with a snow flurry possible.

That cold will not hold and will get booted out of here very quickly. Highs by Friday might hit 60 degrees, and it’s up, up and away from there.

The only drawback could come Saturday, with enough moisture to create a shower or two:

Euro 2

Highs will hit the 60s Saturday, then surge toward the 70s for Sunday and Monday. That happens with a big ridge of high pressure into the region:

Euro 3

Record highs could be threatened during this time.

The jet stream takes a big dip in the west, and that trough rolls eastward into the middle of next week. Several models now cut off that upper level system, instead of bringing the full trough in here:

Euro 4

If that is indeed the case, it would lead to unsettled weather, with showers and strong storms, but the mild weather would continue.

Have a terrific Tuesday and take care.

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Another wild temperature week begins

Good Monday, everyone. We are dealing with a seasonal start to the week, but our wild roller-coaster ride of temperatures is about to return. This will be complete with the potential for air cold enough for some snowflakes, and air warm enough to flirt with record highs.

Nothing like a little more extreme to get the weather juices flowing. 🙂

Seasonally chilly air settles in Monday, with lows in the 20s and highs in the 40s.

Tuesday will find us watching two systems trying to hook up and become a big storm system. “Trying” being the key word in that sentence. Although much closer together on the models, they are miss just to our south and east. Here’s the GFS:

GFS GIf

That’s a “close but no cigar” scenario that produces only some snow showers and flurries around here. The same can be said for the Canadian:

canadian

After a brief cold snap behind that system, temps will take off again by Friday and will last through the upcoming weekend. This happens as a big ridge of high pressure develops across the eastern half of the country, as a deep trough develops in the west. Eventually, that trough rolls east and replaces the ridge:

Euro

Record high temps in the 70s are possible next weekend, if that plays out as forecast.

As the cold air comes back into play, it could spawn some big time storm systems. Those show up well and take on more of a winter look:

GFS 2

With such extreme setups come extreme events, and we will be mindful of that going forward.

Have a great Monday and take care.

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Up and down weather pattern continues

Good Sunday, everyone. A cold front is pushing across central and eastern Kentucky, bringing a nice drop in temperatures. This continues to feed into the overall “up and down” theme of our winter weather pattern.

Scattered showers will be noted out there today, especially this morning. Winds are gusty and temps are very mild ahead of this front.  Temps will reach their high point early in the day, with falling numbers into the afternoon and evening.

Lows by Monday reach the 20s.

We continue to watch a system trying to come together from later Tuesday through Thursday. A deep trough digs into the Ohio Valley and east as a disturbance comes out of the southwest. If you want a big winter storm around here, you want to see these two come together. The model trend is to keep them separate until it’s too late for us:

Euro 2

Here’s what that looks like at the surface:

Euro

That’s still a nice shot of cold with some flurries or snow showers for our region. But, it would become another big snow for the northeast, where they are getting pounded AGAIN this weekend.

Behind that… it can get darn warm around here. If we look at the upper level setup, there’s a heck of a ridge building into our region as a deep trough develops in the west and works east:

Euro 3

Temps next weekend can easily hit 70 or better with an increasing threat for strong thunderstorms.

Have a great Sunday and take care.

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Spring is back in the Bluegrass

Good Saturday, folks. It’s another surge of spring temperatures taking over the fine commonwealth of Kentucky. This air isn’t going to last very long as a big temp drop sweeps in later Sunday. That sets the stage for a much colder and possibly wintrier week ahead.

Most areas hit 60 or highter Saturday, with clouds thickening and some scattered showers.

The numbers will then climb into the 60s Saturday night and Sunday morning. That’s right: The numbers climb.

The climb will stop right there as a cold front drops in from the northwest. Watch the temps crash:

NAM

Seasonal temps settle in for Monday and Tuesday as we watch to see what happens just after that. The European model is now going tor a full-blown hookup between a system coming in from the southwest and a system diving in from the north:

Euro 2

That blows up a huge winter storm that works from the southern states, up the East Coast from Tuesday night through Thursday:

Euro

That certainly is an attention-getter, but is it right? It keeps showing more and more of a connection, leading to a stronger storm, but other models keep the streams separate. If we don’t get a hookup, then we just get a one-and-done cold shot and a few snowflakes. Let’s watch the trends through the weekend.

Regardless of solutions, much milder air will then take over a few days later. I could even see the pattern throwing a severe weather event our way before another winter setup.

Have a great Saturday and take care.

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Another surge of spring this weekend

Good Friday to one and all. Our blast of winter weather was “one and done,” with spring temperatures ready to shoot back in this weekend. It will be mild, but chances of clouds and rain will be a drawback.

Temps to start Friday will be in the upper teens and low 20s. Gusty winds from the southwest will boost highs toward the 50s in the afternoon. The weekend will feature highs heading toward the 60s, but with some clouds and scattered showers around.

The showers and thunderstorms will increase by Sunday evening as a cold front moves in:

GFS

A shot of colder air sweeps in for early next week. That’s when we turn our attention toward a couple of systems trying to hook up. A system dives in from the northern branch of the jet stream and tries to merge with a system coming from the southern branch.

The current European model shows these two hooking up just to our east:

Euro

Euro 2

The faster those two hook up, the greater the chance that grows into a big winter storm system. That’s certainly something to keep a close eye on.

The overall setup will see that system give way to another warm-up, then another big shot of cold. You can see this well on the GFS ensembles:

GFS 6

Could be interesting with that type of a setup, both with winter and the thunderstorms.

Have a great day and take care.

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A short stay for winter

Good Thursday, everyone. We have a big blast of winter air taking up residence across the Bluegrass State. This taste of winter will last all of one day before spring surges back in for the weekend.

Our day starts with some light snow and flurries, with temps in the 20s. Watch for a slick spot or two on area roads, especially bridges and overpasses. Afternoon sunshine takes over, with highs ranging from the upper 20s to the low 30s:

Temperatures Thursday night will drop into the teens for much of the region:

That cold gets wiped out by Friday afternoon as southwesterly winds kick into high gear. That means temps take off and could hit 50 to 55 before the day is over.

That sets us up for another spring fling for the weekend. Highs should easily hit the 60s:

Saturday could feature a scattered shower or thunderstorm, with an increased chance of showers and storms by the end of Sunday. That’s when a cold front drops in from the north:

Chilly air comes in behind, with cold air lurking just to our north. Energy from the southwestern part of the country then ejects northeastward early next week and tries to merge with the cold from the north:

We will need to keep a close eye on that trend. Have a great day and take care.

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A touch of winter on the way

Good Wednesday to one and all. We are dealing with another windy day as our fight between spring and winter continues. It’s spring now, but winter moves in for a brief visit Wednesday night and early Thursday.

The pattern continues to be very active and could produce a little snow around here from time to time. The first chance comes late Wednesday and early Thursday as a system zips across the Bluegrass State. Watch how the system turns into a major snowstorm along the East Coast:

GFS GIf

That has a chance to put down some light accumulations Wednesday night and Thursday morning:

GFS Snow 2

Here’s your regional radar to watch the action:

With lows dropping into the 20s, slick spots could develop on roads to begin the day. Highs Thursday afternoon will be in the upper 20s to low 30s, with lows by Friday morning dropping into the teens in some areas:

Euro 2

Southwesterly winds will quickly increase Friday as highs return to the 50s. That will set the stage for temps to surge well into the 60s this weekend:

Euro

That’s ahead of a cold front that could develop another line of showers and thunderstorms:

Euro 4

Energy cuts off in the southwest and tries to come out and merge with a northern branch system by the middle of next week. That could lead to an interesting storm system. If you’re a fan of winter, the GFS is your model starting with that system:

GFS 4

Enjoy your Wednesday and take care.

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Tracking strong storms and gusty winds

Good Tuesday, everyone. We have a big storm system rolling across the region, and it can bring some big thunderstorms our way. A few of the storms could be strong or severe as they come at us in waves from the southwest.

This doesn’t look like a huge severe weather outbreak, but it can deliver some local wind damage and hail. In addition to the storms, winds Tuesday could gust to 40 mph at times.

Here are the tracking tools:

Current watches
Current Watches

Possible watch areas
Current MDs

Let’s talk about the interesting setup for Wednesday and Thursday. Colder air continues to seep in from the northwest, and that will set up one heck of a temp gradient. I can see the southeast hitting the 60s at the same time readings in the 30s are showing up in the north and west.

As the cold air pushes in, a wave of low pressure develops with an increase in rain and snow. As the low deepens to our east, northwesterly winds would cause snow showers and flurries by Thursday morning. Here’s the GFS:

GFS

The European model also shows some snow:

Euro

That’s a healthy cold shot moving in, but it doesn’t have staying power. As a matter of fact, it gets totally wiped out by Friday as southwesterly winds kick in again. That brings the well-above-normal temps back here for the weekend:

GFS TEMPS 1

Highs in the 60s will be likely, with the potential for showers and thunderstorms increasing. That’s ahead of a cold front that slows down across the region. The models indicate a big piece of upper-level energy hanging back across the southwestern part of the country.

Watch how the European model then ejects that system and tries to form a big winter system next week:

Euro 2

Have a great Tuesday and take care.

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Tracking a big storm into Kentucky

Good Monday, everyone. We continue to watch a potent storm system rolling into the Commonwealth over the next few days. This can bring everything from high winds and severe storms to a round of light snow. Buckle up for the ride.

Monday will find clouds increasing, with showers and thunderstorms developing from southwest to northeast during the afternoon and evening. Some of those storms could be strong or severe across the western half of the state. The Storm Prediction Center shows a marginal to slight risk for these areas:

Today’s risk area
Latest Day 1 convective outlook

As the low pressure winds up across the Mississippi Valley, southwesterly winds are going to crank up and could reach 40 mph or greater Monday night and Tuesday. Given that we will be in the warm sector of that system, we could be dealing with severe thunderstorms. A slight risk is out for just about the entire state:

Damaging winds and large hail will be the primary players with the storms.

The cold front moving in behind this storm doesn’t dig quite as much as once thought. That will lead to the cold air oozing in Wednesday. As this happens, a second low develops and probably brings a swath of rain and snow:

GFS

Here’s where that run thinks the snow will fall:

GFS snow

After a cold shot behind that, temps rebound quickly by Friday and Saturday, with 60 possible. This is ahead of another system that looks very similar to the one we will be dealing with in the coming days.

Have a great Monday and take care.

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A busy week of weather ahead

Good Super Bowl Sunday, everyone. Today’s big day looks pretty good as far as the weather is concerned. This tranquil weekend will soon be replaced by a big storm ready to blow into Kentucky over the next few days.

Before we get to that, let’s talk quickly about today’s weather. There’s a small chance for a touch of rain and snow this morning. That won’t amount to much as temps spike into the 40s with mostly cloudy skies this afternoon.

Rain arrives Monday and we could hear some thunder by Monday night. This is on the nose of warmer air sweeping in from the southwest, as a powerhouse storm comes together in the plains states. As that storm strengthens and heads into the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes, it will bring some wild weather our way:

Euro

Here’s a breakdown:

  • Temps will spike into the 60s on Tuesday on that strong southwesterly wind
  • Showers and thunderstorms will crank and some of those storms may be on the strong or severe side. The Storm Prediction Center has a slight risk for severe weather for much of Kentucky:

SPC 2

  • Wind gusts Tuesday into Tuesday night can reach 40mph-50mph at times.
  • As the front swings through, temps drop nearly 40 degrees by Wednesday morning. That’s when readings hit the 20s and likely stay there for the rest of the day. You can see that cold moving in:

Euro 2

  • Some wraparound snows will be possible on Wednesday.

Once the cold moves away by early Friday, temps should soar once again later that day into Saturday. That will be ahead of another potent system that can bring round 2 of the spring verses winter fight:

Euro 3

Have a great Sunday and take care.

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