Tracking the severe-weather threat

Good Monday, folks. It feels a little like spring, with warm and humid air in place. I know a lot of people like that feel, but that isn’t a good thing on a day like this. It will help create thunderstorms across the region. Some of these could be strong or severe.

The greatest risk of severe weather will be across the western half of Kentucky. That’s where we are likely to see a squall line of storms develop. That line would slowly work eastward into Central Kentucky overnight. Eastern Kentucky might not get that until Tuesday.

Damaging winds, large hail and isolated tornadoes will all be possible with that line. Torrential rainfall is quite likely, and that could lead to some high-water problems for some people.

Ahead of this line, scattered showers and storms will be around, and a few of those could be strong.

Here’s you’re extended dose of storm tracking tools:

Monday’s risk area

Latest Day 1 convective outlook

Current watches

Current Watches

Possible watch areas Current MDs

 

 

Much colder air filters in from west to east on Tuesday as a strong upper level low settles in:

Euro

Winds and showers will go join the chilly air to make for a couple of raw weather days.

Have a great Monday and take care.

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Rounds of strong storms ahead

Good Sunday to one and all. We’ve had a lot of rain over the past few days, but thunderstorms haven’t been much of an issue. That changes today as rounds of storms rumble across the region.

Some of those storms could be on the strong side with hail and high winds. This is likely a sign of things to come as a powerful storm system rolls our way Monday and Tuesday. That should be able to ignite additional rounds of strong to severe thunderstorms.

The new rounds of thunderstorms will also produce some very heavy rainfall across our region. Parts of central and eastern Kentucky have picked up 2″-4″ of rain in the past week, so we will have to watch for local high water issues.

Once the main storm action calms down, an upper level low looks to park itself on top of Kentucky. That brings windy, wet and chilly weather our way for the middle and end of the upcoming week:

Euro 3

This has been one mean October and it shows no signs of letting up on us.

I have you all set to track today’s increase in storms and will have updates as needed.

Today’s risk area

Latest Day 1 convective outlook

Current watches

Current Watches

Possible watch areas Current MDs

 

 

 

Enjoy your Sunday and take care.

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Breaking down the active pattern

Good Saturday, everyone. Our active weather pattern shows little sign of letting up. That’s not good news for folks hoping to enjoy some gorgeous fall weather here in the bluegrass state. I’m tracking more rounds of showers and storms and even the potential for severe weather.

Here’s the breakdown:

– Today will start wet with the potential for some dry weather to push in during the afternoon and evening. If you’re heading out to Commonwealth Stadium, take the poncho to be safe. Temps will be in the upper 50s to around 60 for highs.

– Rounds of showers and some thunderstorms will work back in here on Sunday. Locally heavy downpours will be possible with highs in the 60s.

– Monday will find a stronger area of low pressure working our way. That means thunderstorms will become more common and some of those could be strong or severe. That potential may really increase Monday night and early Tuesday.

Euro 4

Severe weather will have be possible during this time frame.

Once that storm system moves in, it may be in no big hurry to move out. The European Model is showing it hanging around through much of next week as a closed low:

Euro 2

The end result would be chilly temps, gusty winds and scattered showers:

EuroI have you all set to track today’s weather:

Current Temperatures

Hamburg Area from WKYT Studio
Lexington

I-75 @ Iron Works Pike Lexington

US 60 @ US 127 Frankfort

US60 @ US127

I-75 at MP 36 London

I-75 @ MP 36

Have a great Saturday and take care.

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Stormy pattern continues

Good Friday, everyone. Our active weather pattern continues across Kentucky as rounds of showers and thunderstorms return. This is the beginning of a fairly wet period that carries us into the first part of next week.

Friday’s action comes as a wave of low pressure works across the region. This will lead to locally heavy rainfall that carries us into Friday night. I will have your tracking tools in a bit.

I do have a bit of good news for Saturday. There’s a good chance we catch a dry break into the afternoon and evening across parts of the region. Chilly northerly winds might push the rain train into mainly across southern Kentucky for a while.

Regardless, it moves back to the north on Sunday with more showers and thunderstorms rumbling in. Heavy rain will be possible again.

The setup for later Monday and Tuesday will feature a powerful system moving our way. Windy and warm air might surge in ahead of it on Monday, and that is likely to help fire up some strong storms. Check out the latest European model:

Euro In addition to the strong storms, torrential rainfall is likely as this system works through here. That could lead to some high-water problems.

It looks as if chilly air will blow in behind our wet weather for the middle of next week:

Euro 3

Let’s get to tracking the Friday action:

 

 

Have a great Friday and take care.

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Heavy rain threat moves in

Good Thursday, gang. After a small break in the weather, rounds of showers and thunderstorms are set to return to the Bluegrass State. That is likely carry us through the weekend into early next week andcould lead to some local high-water problems.

The stormy setup comes just a few days after a tornado outbreak in Central Kentucky. Here’s a look at the latest information from the Tuesday twisters:

October Tornadoes As you can see, this tornado outbreak was very rare in our part of the world. The National Weather Service will continue to survey, damage and we could add to the 7 confirmed tornadoes we currently have.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will increase Thursday from west to east. The rains will really increase overnight and Friday, with thunder and lightning becoming more common. That trend carries us into the weekend as the action comes at us in waves.

Another system then moves in for early next week, and might park itself right on top of the region. That would keep the heavy rain train rolling on. The European Model has increased the rainfall totals for the next week:

Euro 3

If those numbers come to pass, high- water problems might develop.

Here’s regional radar to track Thursday’s weather:

Have a great day and take care.

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A small break in the stormy weather

Good Wednesday, everyone. Severe thunderstorms blasted the bluegrass state on Tuesday with large hail, damaging winds and a few tornadoes. One of the possible tornadoes touched down near Paris in Bourbon County. As with most things today, it was caught on camera.

The National Weather Service will be out surveying damage today and will make the final call on tornadoes or straight line winds. I suspect we will find tornadoes touching down in Bourbon and Harrison counties.

The weather today looks much, much better. Skies will be partly sunny with highs in the upper 60s to around 70. Enjoy it because more rain is on the way.

The overall set from Thursday through the upcoming weekend will find a front stalling out across our region. Waves of low pressure will develop and work along this boundary, with rounds of showers and thunderstorms common. Here’s the setup:

http://kyweathercenter.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/Special-2.png

Heavy rainfall totals are possible across our region through the weekend. That leads us into another rain and storm maker showing up early next week. Some of the models continue to show a tremendous amount of rain over the next week or so:

Euro 2That is definitely something for us to keep a very close eye on as we roll through the next few days.

Have a wonderful Wednesday and take care.

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Rounds of showers and storms continue

Good Tuesday to one and all. We are just kicking off a very active weather pattern across our part of the world. Rounds of showers and thunderstorms will be common over the next week, and that could lead to some problems.

Another disturbance will roll across the region Tuesday, touching off more storms. Some of them will contain small hail and gusty winds. Heavy rainfall from the storms is a given. I will get to your tracking tools in just a bit.

Wednesday looks to be the driest day of the week, with only some lingering showers. Don’t get used to that, because heavy rain moves back in later Thursday. That’s when a front is likely to stall out in our region.

This boundary will be separating cold air to the north and warm air to the south:

Euro 2 Throw in areas of low pressure working along this front and you get rounds of showers and thunderstorms. That leads to the potential for very heavy rainfall, and the models continue to home in on that:

EuroThose numbers between Tuesday and Sunday could lead to local high-water concerns.

That might be followed up by another big rainmaker early next week.

Let’s get to tracking Tuesday’s action:

Tuesday’s risk area

Latest Day 1 convective outlook

Current watches

Current Watches

Possible watch areas Current MDs

 

 

Have a great day and take care.

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Tracking storms and heavy rain

Good Monday, everyone. Our pattern is about to take a walk on the wet side, with showers and thunderstorms set to affect the region. This is likely to hang around for the next week and could lead to some high rainfall numbers for much of Central and Eastern Kentucky.

The first round of boomers rolls our way Monday afternoon and evening. This is a strong little system that could spawn a few big storms. High winds and hail will be possible with the strongest storms. The Storm Prediction Center also has warned of a risk of severe weather across the southern half of the region.

I will have your tracking tools in a bit.

Here’s a breakdown of what to expect in the coming days:

– Showers and storms will increase Monday afternoon and evening. That wave will be quickly followed up by another round overnight and Tuesday.

– Rainfall numbers between Monday and Wednesday morning could top 1 to 2 inches in some areas. Locally higher amounts will be possible across the south and southeast. The NAM is going wild with the rain numbers there:

NAM

– Lingering showers should end Wednesday, with a bit of a break working in during the afternoon.

– Wet weather increases again Thursday as a bigger storm system affects our weather. This looks like a slow-moving system that could last through the weekend. Heavy rainfall appears to be a good bet during this time.

– I would not be surprised to see some local high-water problems at some point over the next week.

Let’s take them one at a time and track the one arriving today:

Monday’s risk area

Latest Day 1 convective outlook

Current watches

Current Watches

Possible watch areas Current MDs

 

 

I will have updates as needed.

Make it a great Monday and take care.

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Rain chances on the increase

Good Sunday, everyone. A taste of winter invaded the bluegrass state this weekend as some sleet showers were reported in northeastern Kentucky. That’s right… sleep on the 4th day of October. This cold pattern is about to give way to one that looks pretty wet in our part of the world.

We will likely start today out with temps in the low and middle 30s in many areas. This could lead to areas of frost, but winds should keep this from becoming a killing frost. Afternoon highs will hit the upper 50s to low 60s as clouds increase. Those clouds could spit out a few showers by the evening.

Current Temperatures

Shower chances will increase on Monday and some thunder and lightning could join the mix. Southern sections of the state could even get in on a few strong storms. Heavy rainfall will be a good bet in some areas through Tuesday. Check out the rainfall numbers from the models:

GFS

GFS 2NAMNAM

Wednesday should be the driest day of the week as we await the arrival of another system toward the end of the week. This one has the look of a potential heavy rain maker for many:

GFS 3A seasonally chilly air mass should follow that up for next weekend.

Let’s enjoy the rest of THIS weekend, first. Take care.

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Frost possible Sunday morning

Good Saturday, folks. The big weather change I’ve been talking about for more than a week is currently slapping us in the face. A November chill has settled in a little early this year and that may lead to areas of frost by Sunday morning.

Saturday starts out very chilly with upper 30s and low 40s with winds making it feel even colder. Afternoon readings will only make it to the 50-55 degree range with some clouds on the increase. I can’t rule out a shower trying to develop during this time.

Current temperatures

Temps will really chill down this evening and that means you need to layer up if you’re heading out to Commonwealth Stadium. This is one chilly forecast:

UK Night Forecast Winds will make it feel like the upper 30s during the 2nd half. Ouch!

Those winds will slowly diminish overnight and allow for temperatures to really drop. The Hi Resolution NAM shows a few spots going below freezing:

NAM

Green thumbs should be protecting those tender plants and vegetation as frost is a good possibility by morning.

The rest of Sunday looks good with highs in the upper 50s to around 60 as clouds filter back in. Those clouds will lead to additional rain later Monday into Tuesday:

EuroAnother big wet weather maker will try to work out way by the end of next week into the following weekend. It’s a very busy weather pattern taking shape in the coming weeks.

Have a great Saturday and take care.

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