Rounds of storms roll on

Good Wednesday, folks. It’s a very steamy and stormy setup and this rolls on for a few more days. Once into the weekend, our pattern flips back to awesome as much cooler air pulls back into town.

Today is the same as the past few days. Rounds of storms go up with a few strong ones possible. With the amount of tropical moisture in the air, we are likely to see torrential rains that can lead to high water issues.

Both of those threats will increase for Thursday and Friday as our front gets closer. The Storm Prediction Center has a low-end risk for severe storms on Thursday:

Once the cold front clears the region Friday night, cool air surges in to end May and begin June. We have covered this potential for almost two weeks now and it looks to pan out again.

Highs from Saturday through Tuesday are generally in the low and mid 70s. A few spots may be closer to the 70 degree mark and that comes with low humidity and mainly sunny skies. Wow!

Lows may flirt with a few record lows:

SUNDAY MORNING

MONDAY MORNING

TUESDAY MORNING

Temps will rebound to normal or a little above normal by the end of next week. It’s by this time we may have to watch for something developing in the Gulf of Mexico.

Recent runs of the GFS have been showing this well:

Here are your mid-week storm tracking toys:

Have a wonderful Wednesday and take care.

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Rounds of storms continue

Good Tuesday, folks.  It’s another steamy day across central and eastern Kentucky and that’s leading to a few more storms. These rounds of storms continue through the rest of the week, then we change it up for the weekend into early June.

Let’s begin with today and roll ahead. We are dealing with another very warm and humid day, leading to additional rounds of storms. Just like the past several days, any storm that goes up can be briefly severe and put down enough rain to cause flash flooding.

This is a trend that continues through the end of the week. That’s when a cold front marches in by late Friday and Saturday. This could touch off greater coverage of strong storms and torrential rains.

Here’s the setup between now and the front arriving:

The air behind this turns amazing as we close May and say hello to June. Highs from Sunday through, at least Monday, will likely be in the low and middle 70s. Lows may flirt with records:

Sunday Morning

Monday Morning

That will be a below normal temp pattern that likely flips back to warm by the middle of next week. Maybe this is the trend we are seeing for early summer… Back and forth temps.

I leave you with your Tuesday storm trackers:

Have a great Tuesday and take care.

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Steam and some storms continue

Good Sunday, everyone. Memorial Day Weekend is the unofficial kickoff to summer, but Mother Nature seems to be getting a jump on things. Temps are steamy this weekend and this is a trend that takes us through the rest of the month. Unfortunately, a few storms look to crash in here.

Let’s start with today and look ahead. Highs are generally 80-85 for much of central and eastern Kentucky. High humidity levels make it feel even a little warmer than that. And, of course, you can’t have a summer pattern without a few thunderstorms.

Here are your tracking toys for this Sunday:

This isn’t all day stuff, but some hit and run storms may crash a few cookouts. Have that backup plan to be safe.

What does the week ahead hold? Let’s break it down for ya:

  • Memorial Day will feature highs in the low and middle 80s with even more humidity. That will lead to a heat index around 90. A stray shower or storm will also be noted.
  • This pattern looks to persist through most of next week. That means more warm and muggy air.
  • Highs are generally in the 80s with lows in the 60s. Sure sounds like summer to me!
  • With the warm and muggy air will come the daily threat for a few showers and storms. This isn’t widespread stuff, but we will see a few boomers each day.

Have a great Sunday and take care.

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Muggy with a few storms

Good Saturday, everybody. The long Memorial Day Weekend is off and running with muggy are and a few storms rumbling across the state. This is a setup that’s likely to carry us through the rest of the weekend and through the closing days of May.

Let’s begin with today and hit the fast forward button.

Humidity levels continue to increase as temps reach the 80s for most of the state. Obviously, this will lead to an increase in the sweat factor for those outdoor activities. A few clusters of thunderstorms will move across the state, but this isn’t going to be all day stuff by any means.

Here are your tracking toys for this Saturday:

The storm threat continues into Sunday and Memorial Day, but we will also be seeing a lot of dry times. Don’t cancel anything outside, but have a backup plan to be safe. Now, any thunderstorm that goes up could be strong and put down enough rain to cause local high water issues.

For Memorial Day itself, the combination of high humidity levels and temps in the 80s could give us a heat index topping 90:

The same pattern looks to take us through the rest of the week as we get ready to close out May.

The beginning of June still looks cooler than normal, but the Ensembles are now disagreeing on how long that lasts. The GFS Ensembles:

The EURO Ensembles quicker in turning things warmer:

This is going to be an interesting battle and one that may shed some light on the summer ahead. The pattern has been skewed cooler than normal the past few months for the first time in years. The warm waters in the Gulf suggest a very warm and humid summer around here.

Make it a sensational Sunday and take care.

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Summer feel for Memorial Day Weekend

Good Friday, folks. We’ve made it to the big Memorial Day weekend and it’s looking more like early summer, again. Temps and humidity levels are on the rise and this looks to bring a few cookout crashing storms back into the region. Are you really shocked by that? Don’t answer… It’s rhetorical. 🙂

Temps today are back into the 70s for the entire region with an 80 in the west. Humidity levels will also be up and this will aid in the development of a few showers and storms. One or two could be strong and put down locally heavy rains. Here are your Friday tracking tools:

Summer temps surge in for the rest of the Memorial Day weekend as highs reach deep into the 80s:

SATURDAY

SUNDAY

MEMORIAL DAY

Throw in high humidity levels and it’s going to feel very steamy out there. Scattered showers and storms will be going up from time to time through this period and into Tuesday:

As a matter of fact, this warm, humid and stormy setup looks to take us through next week. This looks to change as we flip the calendar from May into June as the models keep hinting at some cooler than normal numbers returning.

GFS ENSEMBLES

Make it a fantastic Friday and take care.

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Flood threat continues east

Good Thursday to one and all. It’s another day of tracking the potential for high water, this time across eastern Kentucky. As we look into the big holiday weekend, the pattern turns summer-like, but thunderstorms may crash some outdoor plans.

Let’s begin with the flood potential out there today. The threat for flash flooding is with us across eastern Kentucky, where an inch or two of rain is possible through today:

Here are the current warnings out for the region:

Your radars are here to track today’s action:

The upper low begins to finally pull away on Friday as warm and humid air presses in from the west. This brings temps in the 80s for us through Memorial Day, but this is going to bring rounds of storms back in here:

Some of those storms may be strong through early next week and could drop enough rain to cause local flash flood issues.

The warm and stormy pattern takes us through the end of next week, but there are indications of a big time cold front arriving to end May. Look at the temp anomalies from the EURO:

That could introduce a cooler than normal start to June and the GFS is also on board. It’s showing well below normal numbers for the first 5 days of the month:

2004, anyone?

Have a great day and take care.

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Flooding issues continue

Good Wednesday, folks. Flooding issues continue across many areas of the bluegrass region and into parts of eastern Kentucky. This comes after two days of drenching rains, with the potential for a few more showers and storms out there today.

Several areas have picked up more than 6″ of rain since Monday and that’s leading to continuing flooding issues. Here are the current warnings:

The Licking River is expected to reach the second highest levels on record in Cynthiana and Falmouth:

South Fork Licking River at Cynthiana

Licking River at Falmouth

Those numbers are second only to the March 1997 flood that devastated both cities.

Here are a couple other waterways likely to experiencing significant flood issues:

Stoner Creek at Paris

Kentucky River near Ravenna

As mentioned, additional rounds of showers and a few storms may spin back into the region from the southeast and east. This happens as our upper low starts to move farther to the southeast:

Scattered showers and storms will be back with us on Thursday, but it doesn’t look nearly as concentrated.

As this system finally moves away on Friday, very warm and muggy air sweeps in here for the long Memorial Day weekend. Temps surge deep into the 80s and could tickle 90 in the west by Memorial Day.

With this warm and muggy air will come a few more rounds of thunderstorms:

A few strong storms will be possible during this time. Could we see a few more flash flood issues? That’s certainly possible and something to watch for.

Have a wonderful Wednesday and take care.

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Flash flood threat continues

Good Tuesday to one and all. Many areas of central and eastern Kentucky continue to get smacked around by heavy rain and high water. This trend continues through today, with the threat for linger issues into Wednesday.

Several areas have had flooding issues since Monday and today should bring additional issues. This is one heck of  a setup that can deliver another 1″-3″ of rain through tonight. After the Monday rains, many areas can’t hold anymore, but it could be some of the same areas getting hit again today.

Here’s a look at the updated Flash Flood Watch…

The latest warnings show up here…

You can clearly see the counterclockwise spin around our upper low…

Significant flooding continues to be possible in some areas, so be alert and be prepared to move to higher ground.

Additional showers and a few storms will linger through Wednesday and into Thursday. We will have to see if this will be enough to cause more flooding concerns, but that’s a possibility.

This system tries to pull away on Friday, but there is growing evidence of a system coming in behind it for the Memorial Day Weekend. The GFS is very enthusiastic on rounds of showers and storms again:

Is anyone else feeling a 2004 redux with the pattern going into Summer?

 

Make it a great day and take care.

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Tracking the flood threat

Good Monday, everyone. We have a slow-moving low spinning across the region for the next few days and this is likely to cause issues. Repeat showers and thunderstorms will likely lead to flooding and flash flooding issues developing and a few of the storms may be strong or severe.

Let’s kick things off by looking at the Flash Flood Watch current in effect…

As mentioned, rounds of showers and thunderstorms will be spinning counterclockwise around our slow-moving low pressure. That means the same areas may be hit by repeat storms and torrential rains. That could cause flash flooding and general flooding through Tuesday or early Wednesday.

A corridor of several inches of rain is likely to set up somewhere in this region…

GFS

CANADIAN

EURO

In addition to the flash flood potential, some of the storms out there today into tonight could be strong or severe. The greatest risk is across the eastern half of the state. Here’s today’s Severe Weather Outlook from the Storm Prediction Center…

I will have updates as needed today and will have the latest on WKYT-TV starting at 4pm. Until then, here are your tracking toys for the day…

Current watches
Current Watches

Possible Watch Areas

Current MDs

Have a great Monday and take care.

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A few strong storms possible late today

Good Sunday to one and all. It’s a very warm and windy day across our part of the world, but a cold front is sliding in from the northwest. This will bring the potential for some strong storms by this evening with cooler and unsettled weather in the days ahead.

Let’s break down the forecast for the week ahead:

  • Temps today will generally range from 80-85 on a strong southwest wind. That wind could touch off a scattered storm into the afternoon.
  • A cold front enters the picture later tonight, bringing the potential for a line of storms along and ahead of it.
  • As the front moves through early Monday, temps drop to the upper 60s and low 70s.
  • A big upper level low will then spin in behind this late Monday and stick around for a few days. That keeps the threat for a few showers going into the middle of next week.
  • That same upper low will also knock our temps way down during this time.
  • It still looks like a very warm setup from late next week into Memorial Day Weekend. Temps should be well into the 80s. As usual, a few thunderstorms may also enter the mix.

I leave you with all the tools you need to track your Sunday fun day thunderstorm action:

Current watches
Current Watches

Possible Watch Areas

Current MDs

Have a great Sunday and take care.

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