Summer temps on the way

Good Thursday, everyone. Scattered showers and storms continue to press across the region early today, but the main focus of the forecast is on the summer setup for the weekend. Temps may surge deep into the 80s for all the moms out there.

As I mentioned, we have scattered storms early today, but this action moves to our east pretty quickly. Track away:

Partly sunny skies take over today, with highs reaching the upper 70s to around 80. Winds will be a little gusty from time to time.

I still can’t rule out a scattered storm on Friday as even warmer air moves in from the southwest. Highs will range from 80-85 in most areas, with southwesterly winds kicking into high gear. You will also notice an increase in humidity levels.

The southwest wind really kicks in for Saturday and Sunday. Highs will likely reach deep into the 80s:

 

A cold front then drops toward the region late on Mother’s Day, leading to the potential for some big boomers:

The long range pattern through next week appears to be pretty darn active with the potential for rounds of showers and storms.

Make it a terrific Thursday and take care.

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Storms increase later today

Good Wednesday to one and all. A weak cold front is working toward the Commonwealth, bringing an increase in showers and thunderstorms. Some of the storms later this evening into tonight could be on the strong side.

Winds are gusty ahead of this front today, with highs heading into the upper 70s to low 80s. Some scattered storms will be possible this afternoon, but the bulk of the action arrives later this evening into tonight. Here’s the latest Severe Weather Outlook rom the SPC for today:

Here’s the outlook for Thursday:

Damaging winds and large hail will be the primary threats for any of the storms that can go severe.

The same front responsible for the storms then slows down on top of us into Friday, with the potential for a few waves of showers and storms rolling eastward into Kentucky.

That introduces us to some very warm and humid air for the weekend. Highs will run deep into the 80s as we get ready for another cold front to move our way by late Mother’s Day into Monday. That may touch off another round of some big boomers.

I have you all set to track today’s stormy weather:

Current watches
Current Watches

Possible watch areas
Current MDs

Make it a good one and take care.

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More storms on the way

Good Tuesday, everyone. It’s a really nice spring day in progress across the Commonwealth, but rounds of storms are on the way for the rest of the week. It’s a setup that can lead to some strong boomers from time to time.

Highs out there today will generally range between 75 and 80 with partly sunny skies.

Humidity levels increase on Wednesday with temps around 80 for highs. Late day showers and storms may increase into Wednesday night as a cold front drops in from the northwest:

Some of these storms may be strong or severe. Here’s the Wednesday severe weather outlook from the Storm Prediction Center:

That front slows down and becomes stationary from west to east across the state, leading to some additional rounds of showers and storms.

Here’s the Thursday severe weather outlook from the SPC:

Watch how additional showers and storms develop and roll in from the west on Friday:

Some big storms are possible in that setup, especially with very warm and humid air pressing in. Temps surge deep into the 80s, with the chance for a 90 showing up into Mother’s Day Weekend:

Is this an indication of the summer to come? The short answer to that is… No. We have a super wet spring in progress and the rain totals for the year are WAY above normal for the entire state…

The long term Palmer Drought Index shows we aren’t alone with a wetter than normal ground…

Make it a terrific Tuesday and take care.

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A very active week of weather

Good Monday, everyone. One cold front is moving to our east, with additional fronts on the way later this week into the weekend. That means an active week of weather, with rounds of showers and storms developing.

Leftover showers will be around early today across eastern Kentucky, as cooler winds blow. Highs will generally range from 65-70 for most of central and eastern Kentucky.

Track the leftover action:

Tuesday turns much milder with temps making a run at 80. Humidity levels will also start to spike as we track another front our way by late Wednesday into early Thursday. This may produce strong to severe storms in our region:

That front may become more west to east across the region later Thursday and Friday, allowing for waves of thunderstorms to push through:

Those storms will have a healthy temperature gradient to work with. The GFS is pushing the 80s through the Ohio Valley with 40s to the north of that. At the same time, it has 100 degree temps from Texas into western Kansas:

That gradient should eventually crank a big storm system across the plains that would roll our way:

Make it a great Monday and take care.

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More storms later today

Good Sunday to one and all. We are coming off a soaker of  a Kentucky Derby Day, with many areas picking up a good 1″-2″ of rain. As that system moves away, another one is ready to take its place before the day is over.

Morning showers move off to our east as skies become partly cloudy. Temps hit the 70s on a strong wind kicking up ahead of a cold front. Scattered showers and storms will develop ahead of the front, impacting the region by late this afternoon into the evening:

A few strong storms are possible as that system crashes in, with lingering showers into Monday. Cooler winds will blow on Monday, but that doesn’t last very long. Temps and humidity levels both jump. Throw in several systems rolling across the Ohio Valley and you can get a pretty stormy setup through next weekend:

That pattern also features a rather healthy temperature gradient setting up from the Great Lakes into our region and points south:

Some pretty good storm clusters tend to rumble through the temperature buffer zone.

Here are your shower and storm trackers for the day…

Make it a good one and take care.

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Tracking heavy rain for Derby Day

Good Saturday and Happy Kentucky Derby Day. Rounds of heavy rain continue to target much of the region today, and may end up causing some local high water issues. This action is happening along a stalled out front right on top of us.

Here’s a quick breakdown of what to expect:.

  • Out cold front slows down and stalls over top of the state early this morning, with the wave of low pressure developing and rolling on top of us.
  • Rounds of heavy rain and thunderstorms move in from southwest to northeast  through our big Derby Day.
  • Churchill Downs will be on the western edge of the rain shield, but could still get in on some soggy stuff for a while.
  • The heaviest rains should target areas from south-central Kentucky into the central and eastern parts of the state.
  • That shows up well on the latest model rain forecasts:

GFS

NAM

CANADIAN

Another round of thunderstorms will follow that up by later Sunday, with cool air moving in for Monday. Rounds of strong storms appear to be a good bet later next week.

Here are your tracking tools for the day:

Make it a great Derby Day and take care.

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Tracking storms to start Derby weekend

Good Friday and happy Kentucky Oaks Day! The big weekend is off and running with scattered showers and storms rolling across the bluegrass state. This isn’t a total washout of an Oaks Day, but we may need the poncho from time to time. Derby Day may feature some heavier rains across the region.

Today’s storms will be fairly scattered, with dry hours and some sun in between. A few of the storms may be strong or locally severe, but the threat isn’t very high:

I will get your tracking tools in a bit.

The front producing the showers and storms slows down on top of us tonight, allowing a wave of low pressure to develop along it.  That may bring a swath of heavy rain across our region. Look at the hefty rain totals showing up through Saturday night:

NAM

Hi Res NAM

The GFS has made a big jump compared to earlier runs:

Notice how most of the runs have the Louisville area between the heavier rains to the south, and not much to the north. That’s a fine line we are walking for the Derby City on Derby Day.

Another cold front then works in here late Sunday , bringing showers and strong storms:

 

Much cooler air then follows that up to begin next week.

Here are your Oaks Day storm trackers:

Current watches
Current Watches

Possible watch areas
Current MDs

Have a great Oaks Day and take care.

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Tracking Derby weekend storm chances

Good afternoon, everyone. It’s another very warm and windy day taking shape across Kentucky, but thunderstorms are inching closer. A few may sneak into the region today, but the main action holds off until late Kentucky Oaks Day into Kentucky Derby Day.

Temps today will be back into the 80-85 degree range. Those southwest winds are causing moisture levels to increase, leading to the potential for a shower or storm. The best chance is across the western and northern parts of the state. That’s where a marginal risk for severe weather is:

That risk area expands farther east into Kentucky on Oaks Day:

Local hail and high winds will be possible, but this does not look like a big outbreak of severe storms. Also, this is NOT going to be an all day rain.

The front bringing the showers and storms will slow down, allowing for a wave of low pressure to develop along it. That does not bode well for Kentucky Derby Day, as scattered showers and storms may be around:

That could spell for some trouble for Churchill Downs and all those Derby Parties across the entire region.

I leave you with your Thursday storm tracking toys:

Current watches
Current Watches

Possible watch areas
Current MDs

Have a great Thursday and take care.

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Watching storms to start Kentucky Derby Weekend

Good Wednesday, folks. Our weather continues to be absolutely awesome out there, with warm temps and mostly sunny skies. This has been a perfect start to Kentucky Derby week, but showers and storms may impact part of our big weekend ahead.

Before we get there, let’s focus on today’s weather. Highs will be from 80-85 for many as a strong southwest wind cranks. That same wind will bring an increase in humidity levels and may spawn isolated showers and storms.

The best chance will be to our west, but I have your radars ready just in case:

Thursday’s weather will be very similar to what we have out there today. Highs are back into the 80s, with a slightly better chance for some showers and storms in the afternoon:

 

 

Scattered showers and storms will then increase for Kentucky Oaks Day Friday. This isn’t going to be washout material, but some decent showers and storms will go up as a cold front moves in. The current trend in the modelling is to slow this front down Friday night into Derby Day.

That slower moving front could keep some showers and storms around for the big day. Here’s the GFS from Friday evening through Saturday night:

The new Canadian Model is now much more aggressive with the Derby Day storm chances:

As I’ve been saying for days, the slower the front, the better the chance for some Derby Day storm action.

 

Have a wonderful Wednesday and take care.

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Temps are taking off

Good Tuesday to one and all. May is off and running with a very warm air mass pressing into the bluegrass state. Temps will feel more like early June than early May, and no one is going to complain about that.

The issue may come later in the week, as showers and storms increase. This may impact Kentucky Oaks Day, especially.

Let’s start with this first day of May and roll forward. Highs today will be in the upper 70s to around 80s with mostly sunny skies continuing. This is about a perfect weather day in Kentucky!

Temps will reach 80-85 for Wednesday and Thursday as southwesterly winds increase. Those winds will bring an increase in humidity levels, firing off a shower or storm chance:

The best chance for showers and storms will come on Kentucky Oaks Day Friday:

That’s when a cold front works into the region from the west and northwest. Temps should still be rather mild around the low 70s.

Can we get this front through here by Kentucky Derby Saturday? It may be a close call, but the storms should be to our south and east:

Highs will likely hit the lower 70s. Not bad!!

Make it a great Tuesday and take care.

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