Showers and storms start to show back up

Good Sunday, folks. Our weekend has been nothing short of amazing, but an increase in thunderstorms is slowly returning. A few of those storms will fire up later today, with much better chances coming in the days ahead.

Highs for your Sunday will generally be in the low and middle 80s. Watch for an increase in scattered storms this afternoon and evening, especially across the western half of the state. Here are your Sunday storm trackers to follow the scattered stuff:

Showers and storms will increase on Monday, with the potential for a few strong storms and torrential rains:

You can see Chris spinning off the east coast at the same time. That system should get shunted to the north and northeast:

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Guess what is pushing that away from the coast? Another cold front dropping into the eastern half of the country. This front slides in here late Tuesday with strong storms ahead of it and pleasant air behind it:

Wednesday and Thursday are likely below normal once again.

Seasonal temps return for next weekend, but there continues to be a strong indication of a deepening trough taking control of much of the country after that:

If that’s the case, below normal temperatures would become more common for a lot of real estate:

That’s a pattern the seasonal models have been signaling for a while now and fits the analog years of a developing El Nino.

Have a sensational Sunday and take care.

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A much better feeling weekend

Good Saturday, folks. The weather today is MUCH better than what we have been dealing with over the past few weeks. You can actually breathe outside as the heat and humidity finally move away. Even in this different temperature pattern, we can’t shake the risk for a few showers and storms.

Highs on this Saturday will be in the low 80s with a mix of sun and clouds. Humidity levels are way down there, giving us that comfortable feel to the air. That said, there is still the threat for a shower or storm going up, especially across the south:

A little better risk for a shower or storm will be with us on Sunday as our moisture plume increases just a bit. Here’s where the GFS thinks will see, at least, some rain through Sunday night:

Additional showers and storms will be around early in the week, with another weak front dropping in from the north:

That system off the east coast bring me to my next subject… The tropics.

Things are all of a sudden becoming very active. We have a tiny little Hurricane Named Beryl that has developed and will work toward the Caribbean and should eventually weaken:

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Chris is forming off the Carolina coast and is expected to meander around for a few days:

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Enjoy your Saturday and take care.

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A big blast of relief for the weekend

Good Friday to one and all.  A strong cold front is working across the state today, bringing some big changes for the weekend. Much cooler and drier air is on the way for Saturday and Sunday, and this is exactly what we have been waiting for.

To get there, we have some thunderstorms to go through today. These storms will be more common through the early afternoon and a few could be strong. Just like the past few days, we are on guard for local wind damage. Here are your tracking tools:

Showers and thunderstorms will rumble through from north to south today, with some of the storms possibly being strong or severe. Just like the past few days, damaging winds will be the main player. In addition to that, storms will put down a tremendous amount of rain, leading to local high water issues. I will have your tracking toys in a bit.

Humidity levels will crash tonight into Saturday. That dry air allows temps to bottom out in the 50s for some by Saturday morning. Highs are generally in the lower 80s.

Enough low-level moisture hangs around southern Kentucky for a stray shower or thunderstorm to go up during the afternoon:

That same moisture plume showing up across the deep south and Tennessee Valley lifts back to the north on Sunday, bringing some showers and storms with it:

Even in a cooler and drier pattern… we can’t fully shake the rain chances. This year is absolutely remarkable in terms of the amount of precipitation.

Additional rounds of showers and storms kick in on Monday and may be with us on and off through the week. Some of the medium range models are also trying to develop something off the east coast:

Make it a fantastic Friday and take care.

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Better weather on the way

Good Thursday, folks. Summer is rolling right along, with the 4th of July now in our rearview mirror. Something else that’s about to be in the rearview… The heat and humidity.  A big change is on the way over the next few days as showers and storms increase, with the temps going the other way.

Highs today are back into the low 90s with a heat index topping 100 once again. Scattered showers and storms will go up and a few could be strong. This action is ahead of a cold front dropping in from the north on Friday. Showers and storms will be likely along and ahead of the front:

Temps on Friday will only reach the upper 70s and low 80s. MUCH cooler and drier air comes in behind the front for the weekend. Lows can drop into the 50s:

Saturday looks amazing with low humidity, plenty of sunshine and highs mainly in the low 80s. Sunday will see 80-85 in most areas, with just a small threat for a shower or storm in the afternoon.

Storm chances will then ramp up early next week as humidity levels start to climb.

Here are your Thursday tracking toys:

Make it a good one and take care.

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Big changes follow our hot 4th of July

Good Wednesday and Happy Independence Day. This may very well be the hottest day of the entire summer, with a heat index topping out above 100 for many areas. This hot and humid setup is about to take a backseat to a cold front, bringing much better air our way by the weekend.

Actual temps today will range from 90-95, but the high humidity makes it feel like 100-105. Take a lot of breaks if you’re going to be out at the parades or just enjoying a cookout in the back yard.

Isolated storms may also flare up:

Thursday is another hot one, with a slightly better chance for showers and storms. Those storm chances really increase on Friday as our cold front arrives:

Strong storms and torrential rainfall is likely with this bad boy. Behind the front comes a taste of the good stuff. Temps this weekend go below normal:

This is likely the beginning of a much cooler second half of summer around here and across much of the country. The CFS temps through mid August show this well:

The European Model continues to signal the cooler look:

Do you think the cooler setup means a drier pattern? Probably not:

Have a safe and happy 4th of July. Take care.

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Hot as the 4th of July

Good Tuesday, folks. We have very steamy and stormy weather continuing across our part of the world. The scattered storms are back today, but it’s the heat index numbers for our 4th of July getting most of my immediate attention.

Our Independence Day may be the hottest feeling day we’ve had since the summer of 2012. Ouch! I will have more on that in a moment.

Let’s talk about the scattered storms today. Any boomer that goes up may be strong and produce locally heavy rains. Outside of the storms, the heat index may reach 100 degrees.

Here are your Tuesday storm tracking tools:

Let’s turn our attention to the 4th of July. High temps range from 90-95 for most of the state, with a heat index topping 105 during the peak heating of the afternoon.:

A storm or two will develop in the heat and humidity, especially in the afternoon and evening hours.  For those planning to be outdoors on the 4th, and most of us are, plan on taking a lot of water breaks.

Thursday may feature triple digit heat index numbers once again, but more clouds and scattered storms should keep things under what the 4th delivers.

Those storms then really ramp up on Friday as a cold front drops in from the north:

 

Strong storms and torrential rains may accompany this boundary, with much cooler air by the weekend:

 

Make it a terrific Tuesday and take care.

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More storms kick off the holiday week

Good Monday, everyone. It’s the 4th of July holiday week and we continue to be locked into a steamy and stormy pattern. Boomers on Sunday caused a few issues, and it looks like today’s action may follow their lead.

A plume of tropical moisture is aimed at us from the Gulf of Mexico. This will help crank additional showers and storms today, especially in the afternoon and evening. A few of the storms may pulse up and become severe, with local wind damage possible. These storms will also be tremendous rain producers and may cause more flash flood issues.

Here are your Monday tracking tools:

A few storms will be back in town for Tuesday, with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. The current call for the 4th of July is for a hot one to take shape. Heat index values may reach 105 degrees in many areas:

This is going to have a big impact on parades and outdoor activities, so take early heat precautions.

Showers and storms will amp back up later in the week into the weekend:

Additional heavy rains and strong storms will be possible. Temps should also come down several degrees during this time, but the high humidity will hang tough.

Have a fantastic Monday and take care.

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Scattered storms and steamy temps start July

Good Sunday, everyone. We’ve made it to the month of July, widely considered the heart of summer. The steamy temps from June are carrying over to our new month, with scattered showers and storms joining the fray. This is a setup that looks to continue right on through our 4th of July week.

Temps today are back into the upper 80s and low 90s with a heat index pushing the mid and upper 90s at times. At the same time, the atmosphere is primed for a few showers and storms to bubble up before the day is over.

Here are your tracking toys for the day:

I mentioned recently how the wet ground helping us fight the heat, but just how wet is the ground? The rainfall departures for the year are off the charts:

Many areas of the state are more than 12″ above normal, with some pockets of 20″ above normal. That’s absolutely nuts, but goes along with the pattern we have been forecast now for months.

Monday should feature a little better coverage of showers and storms, and that should shave a few degrees off your back porch thermometer. Locally heavy rains are a good bet with the storms going up over the next few days. You can see this on the GFS rainfall forecast through early Tuesday:

As I have mentioned many times over the past few months, this is a summer with no shortage of thunderstorms and rainfall. That’s certainly been the case to date, and appears to be locked and loaded for the rest of the summer. Case in point is the 2 week rain forecast from the GFS:

These rounds of storms will also come with temps averaging above normal. Here’s the CFS temperature anomaly for the first 10 days of July:

You can clearly see the core of heat is to our north and northeast, just as it is right now.

For some time, several of the weekly/monthly models have been forecasting a shift to much cooler for the middle and later parts of July. The same CFS run shows this taking hold from July 10-20:

Make it a great day and take care.

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June ends with heat and humidity

Good Saturday, everyone. The month of June is about to wrap up and will do so with some very tropical air. Heat and humidity will combine forces to give us a very uncomfortable day and that will hang tough into early July. As the steam continues, scattered storms will begin to return.

Highs today are in the upper 80s and low 90s with a mix of sun and clouds. Throw in the humidity levels and you get a heat index of mid and upper 90s. Can we get a heat busting shower or storm today? The chances are slim for any one location, but I do expect a few boomers to show up…

Sunday is another steamy day, but the numbers may come down just a smidge with an increase in the storm threat:

Additional showers and storms will then carry over into Monday:

Any storm that goes up will put down some torrential rains. Outside the storms… it’s steamy.Any storm that goes up will put down some torrential rains. Outside the storms… it’s steamy. This is a trend that rolls on through the rest of your 4th of July week:

Tropical downpours may cause some issues before the week is over. Outside of any storm action, highs continue to run in the upper 80s and low 90s.

Stay cool on this Saturday and take care.

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Cranking up the heat and humidity

Good Friday to one and all. Heat and humidity are on the increase today and this will continue into the weekend. As a matter of fact, the first week of July is going to feature more of the same. That said, we will also be tracking a few storms from time to time.

Highs today are mainly in the upper 80s to near 90, but the humidity will add to the uncomfortable factor. The heat index today will hit the middle 90s in most areas. There is a very small threat for isolated storms:

Saturday may be the hottest day of the bunch with most areas getting into the low 90s. Heat index values should range from 95-100, with a few spots being a little hotter than that in the west and north. Isolated storms will be possible once again.

A plume of moisture works in here for Sunday, leading to better coverage for showers and storms:

That should knock the heat down some. Any storm that develops could pulse up and become severe and put down torrential rains.

A cold front drops closer to the region on Monday as some moisture continues to push in from the south. That should fire up some additional showers and storms:

As we roll into the4th of July holiday, we stay very steamy, but showers and storms will continue to develop:

The steamy and stormy trend will then continue through late next week into the following weekend:

Cloudbursts are likely with some of the storms over the next week. Shocked? Didn’t think so.

Have a fantastic Friday and take care.

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