Winter storm tracker

Good Saturday, everyone. A winter storm continues to push across Kentucky and is bringing a nasty mix of precipitation. Sleet, freezing rain, snow and rain will all be likely out there today.

It’s very difficult to pinpoint which type of precipitation will be dominant for any one location. Some significant amounts of ice and snow will be possible as this system has a ton of moisture with it.

Temps might go above freezing at times, and that will further complicate  the precipitation setup.

I have you all set to do some tracking:

Hamburg Area from WKYT Studio
Lexington

I-75 @ Winchester Road Lexington

I-75 @ Winchester Road

US 60 @ US 127 Frankfort

US60 @ US127

US 127 @ Frankfort Frankfort

US127 @ Frankfort KY

US 60 @ US 460
Frankfort
US60 @ US460

I-75 MP 127
Georgetown
I75 NB @ MP 127

I-64 MP 97
Winchester
I-64 WB @ MP 97

Mountain Parkway near Slade

US 23 at 119

 

I-71/I-75 at I-275
Near Covington
I-71/I-75 @ I-275

I-275 at Mineola Pike
Near Covington
I-275 @ Mineola Pike

I-275 approaching KY 20/Airport
Near Covington
I-275 East of KY 20/Airport Exit

Bluegrass Parkway Bardstown

I-65 MP 32

Downtown Louisville @ 2nd & Broadway
Louisville
Downtown Louisville @ 2nd & Broadway

I-64 @ I-264
Louisville
I-64 @ I-264

I-264 @ Freedom Way
Near Louisville International Airport
I-264 @ Freedom Way

I-75 at MP 36
London
I-75 @ MP 36

I-75 at MP 23
Corbin

I-75 @ MP 23

US 41A Gate 5 Fort Campbell Entrance
Fort Campbell
US 41A @ Gate 5

I-24  MP 4 @ US 60
Paducah
I-24 @ US 60 MP 4

I-24 MP 7 @ US 62
Paducah
I-24 MP 7 @ US62

I-65 MP 36
Near Bowling Green
I-65 MP 36

I-65 @ 234
Near Bowling Green
I-65 @ 234

Have a great day and take care.

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Tracking the winter storm

Good evening, everyone. A Winter Storm Warning is out for the entire state of Kentucky through Saturday. A nasty mix of sleet, freezing rain and snow are moving in and this mess will likely cause a lot of issues.

I am VERY confident of our region getting smacked around by this storm, but less confident on the placement of precipitation types and totals. Here’s a rough outline of how this looks to me at the moment…

Special 2

That map is basically just for what falls tonight through early Saturday afternoon. The totals and boundaries are very flexible on my end and will be moved around with future updates. This may wind up being a total “nowcast” storm as we see how the precipitation types are playing out on the fly.

The late day trend among the models is for a much heavier swath of snow setting up along the area I outlined in my earlier update.

NAM

NAMThe GFS is a little farther south than the NAM…

GFS

The short range model known as the RAP only goes through 11am and shows a similar look…

RAP

If those models verify, we would be looking at some serious issues developing because of the amount of snow. That would be a heavy, wet snow that would be falling on top of a lot of snow already out there. Roofs beware!!!!

To the south of all that… snow and sleet are already breaking out in western and southern Kentucky. This can cause accumulations of both before we see more in the way of freezing rain take over later tonight. The potential for significant icing is increasing.

As mentioned, this is a VERY HIGH IMPACT winter storm. The models are just now catching on to the snowpack and arctic air in place and now you will see a lot of forecasts shift based on that. I will update things again tonight and on WKYT-TV at 11.

I have your tracking tools…

Hamburg Area from WKYT Studio
Lexington

I-75 @ Winchester Road Lexington

I-75 @ Winchester Road

US 60 @ US 127 Frankfort

US60 @ US127

US 127 @ Frankfort Frankfort

US127 @ Frankfort KY

US 60 @ US 460
Frankfort
US60 @ US460

I-75 MP 127
Georgetown
I75 NB @ MP 127

I-64 MP 97
Winchester
I-64 WB @ MP 97

Mountain Parkway near Slade

US 23 at 119

 

I-71/I-75 at I-275
Near Covington
I-71/I-75 @ I-275

I-275 at Mineola Pike
Near Covington
I-275 @ Mineola Pike

I-275 approaching KY 20/Airport
Near Covington
I-275 East of KY 20/Airport Exit

Bluegrass Parkway Bardstown

I-65 MP 32

Downtown Louisville @ 2nd & Broadway
Louisville
Downtown Louisville @ 2nd & Broadway

I-64 @ I-264
Louisville
I-64 @ I-264

I-264 @ Freedom Way
Near Louisville International Airport
I-264 @ Freedom Way

I-75 at MP 36
London
I-75 @ MP 36

I-75 at MP 23
Corbin

I-75 @ MP 23

US 41A Gate 5 Fort Campbell Entrance
Fort Campbell
US 41A @ Gate 5

I-24  MP 4 @ US 60
Paducah
I-24 @ US 60 MP 4

I-24 MP 7 @ US 62
Paducah
I-24 MP 7 @ US62

I-65 MP 36
Near Bowling Green
I-65 MP 36

I-65 @ 234
Near Bowling Green
I-65 @ 234

Take care.

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Watching another winter storm

Good Friday to one and all. Our day is starting out with history making cold temperatures across the bluegrass state. Readings this morning will likely range from – 5 to -30 and that will give us one of the coldest mornings on record for Kentucky.

This comes on the cusp of a recent snowstorm that produced some of the heaviest one day snowfalls we’ve ever had. Our history making week continues as we track a developing winter storm into our region late tonight into the weekend.

This is a storm system that is likely to bring snow, sleet, freezing rain and rain our way. It’s going to be tough to figure out which areas get hit with what kind of precipitation and how much.

A WINTER STORM WATCH is out for most of Kentucky…

SPECIAL 2

That will likely be updated to include additional counties and to switch it to a warning for some.

Snow, sleet and freezing rain is likely for our region. Figuring out who gets what of each will be the difficult part. Here’s a preliminary look…

SPECIAL

Again, that’s the early call and a lot can change. This system is loaded with moisture and will put down a TON of precipitation. I will have another update later today.

In the short term, track what we have out there early today:

 

Make it a great day and take care.

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Winter Storm Watch starts late Friday

Good evening, everyone. As we get set for another bitterly cold night in the bluegrass state, another winter storm is on the way. That arrives just in time for the weekend and will bring a nasty mix of sleet, freezing rain and snow.

A Winter Storm Watch is now out for much of the region:

This could get very ugly!

Stay warm and take care.

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Record-setting cold

Good Thursday to one and all. We are rewriting the weather history books across the Bluegrass State. Record amounts of snow have given way to record low temperatures. This dangerously cold air will hang tough through Friday.

The recent snows have put Lexington in some rare territory in terms of snow depth. Take a look at where we stand:

Winter Storm 2015Officially, this is tied for the second-highest snow depth on record. That’s the snow history part of the equation. Now it’s time for the temperatures to take center stage. We’re likely to start out Thursday with readings in the minus 5 to minus 15 range. That would shatter the record here in Lexington.

Wind chills early Thursday will be in the minus 20 to minus 30 degree range, and that’s dangerous. A wind chill warning is out for early Thursday:

 

High’s Thursday will reach only the single digits, with the wind chill staying well below zero. Some snow showers or flurries might develop in the afternoon.

Thursday night is when things can get totally out of control. Readings will drop even lower and could reach minus 20 degrees. Some of the computer models are showing the potential for even colder air:

GFS Temps 2The lowest temperature ever recorded in Lexington is minus 21 in January 1963. Can it get that cold tonight? It’s a possibility, but only if skies are completely clear.

I’m still trying to figure out exactly how our weekend plays out. Some thoughts:

– Snow develops across Western Kentucky on Friday and lifts to the northeast across the rest of the state during the evening.

– Accumulating snows might be seen before sleet and freezing rain begin to take over late Friday night and early Saturday.  The first half of Saturday looks icy, as temps struggle to get to the freezing mark.

– Rain might take over for a while later Saturday into Saturday night, but I suspect the models’ forecasts are still too warm. They also are probably too strong and too far north and west with the surface low during this time.

I leave you with Thursday’s tracking tools:

 

Make it a great day and take care.

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More snow ushers in record cold

Good Wednesday, everyone. Another round of snow is rolling across the Bluegrass State, and it will add to our substantial snow pack. The real story is the bitterly cold air coming in behind this. We have a chance to rewrite the cold weather history books on Thursday and Friday.

The snow out there Wednesday will come at us in waves, with the first early in the morning. Snow showers and squalls will then kick in Wednesday afternoon and evening on a strong northwesterly wind flow.

Special 2Locally higher amounts will be possible as a potent arctic system works through. Winds will be very gusty, with blowing and drifting snow a good bet. Highs will stay in the teens.

History-making cold is likely for Thursday and Friday. I firmly believe we have a shot at monthly and all-time record lows by Friday. The numbers from the GFS might even be too high:

GFS Temps 2It’s amazing to see numbers that low!

Also, I’m keep an eye on another messy storm system developing late Friday into the weekend. That could throw a nasty mix of weather our way.

I leave you with today’s tracking tools:

 

Hamburg Area from WKYT Studio
Lexington

I-75 @ Winchester Road Lexington

I-75 @ Winchester Road

US 60 @ US 127 Frankfort

US60 @ US127

US 127 @ Frankfort Frankfort

US127 @ Frankfort KY

US 60 @ US 460
Frankfort
US60 @ US460

I-75 MP 127
Georgetown
I75 NB @ MP 127

I-64 MP 97
Winchester
I-64 WB @ MP 97

Mountain Parkway near Slade

US 23 at 119

 

I-71/I-75 at I-275
Near Covington
I-71/I-75 @ I-275

I-275 at Mineola Pike
Near Covington
I-275 @ Mineola Pike

I-275 approaching KY 20/Airport
Near Covington
I-275 East of KY 20/Airport Exit

Bluegrass Parkway Bardstown

I-65 MP 32

Downtown Louisville @ 2nd & Broadway
Louisville
Downtown Louisville @ 2nd & Broadway

I-64 @ I-264
Louisville
I-64 @ I-264

Have a great day and take care.

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From record-breaking snow to potentially record cold

Good Tuesday, everyone.  Our winter storm has exited the area after putting down near-record snows in much of the region. I’m tracking another round of snow later Tuesday night into Wednesday, then it’s game on for potentially record-breaking cold.

The snowfall from the winter storm was the most we’ve seen in Kentucky since February 1998. That’s 17 years worth of waiting for “the big one.” It finally hit on Monday with widespread 10- to 18-inch snows across our region.

Lexington officially picked up slightly more than 10 inches, and that was the most ever for the date. It was the second-snowiest February day on record and the fourth-snowiest day on record. Think about this: Only three other days since the late 1800s featured more snow than what fell Monday in Lexington.

That storm is in our rear-view mirror, so let’s talk about the crazy stuff ahead of us.

Tuesday’s weather features the potential to start below zero. There’s an outside shot at a record low if it drops to minus 6. Highs Tuesday afternoon will hit the upper teens and low 20s as clouds roll in.

Those clouds are ahead of a potent system moving in for Wednesday. That will become a decent snow-maker as bitterly cold air surges in:

GFS

Another 2 to 4 inches of snow will be possible Wednesday. Winds could gust to 30 mph, and that would create some blowing and drifting snow as temps stay in the teens.

The air that follows this could become historic. Check out the lows for Thursday and Friday mornings from the GFS:

GFS Temps

Not only would those numbers shatter daily records, but they could also challenge monthly and all-time records. For instance, the model is forecasting a crazy low of minus 28 in Lexington on Friday morning. The lowest temperature ever recorded in Lexington is minus 21.

To make matters worse, another round of winter weather is possible over the coming weekend.

I leave you with your tracking tools for the day:

Hamburg Area from WKYT Studio
Lexington

I-75 @ Winchester Road Lexington

I-75 @ Winchester Road

US 60 @ US 127 Frankfort

US60 @ US127

US 127 @ Frankfort Frankfort

US127 @ Frankfort KY

US 60 @ US 460
Frankfort
US60 @ US460

I-75 MP 127
Georgetown
I75 NB @ MP 127

I-64 MP 97
Winchester
I-64 WB @ MP 97

Mountain Parkway near Slade

US 23 at 119

 

I-71/I-75 at I-275
Near Covington
I-71/I-75 @ I-275

I-275 at Mineola Pike
Near Covington
I-275 @ Mineola Pike

I-275 approaching KY 20/Airport
Near Covington
I-275 East of KY 20/Airport Exit

Bluegrass Parkway Bardstown

I-65 MP 32

Downtown Louisville @ 2nd & Broadway
Louisville
Downtown Louisville @ 2nd & Broadway

I-64 @ I-264
Louisville
I-64 @ I-264

Make it a great day and take care.

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Tracking a major winter storm

Good Monday, everyone. A huge winter storm is on top of the Bluegrass State on Monday and will drop a lot of snow across our part of the world. Some areas might pick up a foot or more of snow, and that would be enough to shut down the commonwealth for a time.

Let’s get into all the details and throw your tracking tools into the mix:

– Snowfall Monday looks like a widespread 6 to 12 inches across Kentucky. Amounts of 8 to 16 inches will be possible across parts of Central and Eastern Kentucky. Here’s a map I put together at work, and it appears to be in decent shape:

Special- The only potential trouble areas I see are in Western Kentucky and for areas right along the Tennessee line in the southeast. Sleet could mix in and cut down snow totals in these areas. I’m really nitpicking to find something to call “trouble.”

– Lexington has a chance to have a top-5 snowiest day on record. We need to crack 9.5 inches to get there. This will be one of the snowiest February days ever for Lexington and for other cities.

– I still think we get some blowing snow and minor drifting Monday.

– Bitterly cold air will be here Tuesday morning, with readings close to zero in some areas.

– Another arctic system blows in Wednesday, with snow showers and squalls that can put down additional accumulations. Winds will really increase, and blowing snow might be a problem.

– Potentially record cold then moves in for Thursday and Friday. Overnight lows might reach minus 10 to minus 15 degrees, with wind chills from minus 20 to minus 30. Unreal!

– Another snow system tries to move in this weekend.

I will have updates as I can throughout the day. Most of my day will be spent doing my real job on WKYT-TV. We will be on the air all day, with live reports from across the state.

You can help us out by reporting the weather conditions from where you live. I leave you with all your tracking tools:

Hamburg Area from WKYT Studio
Lexington

I-75 @ Winchester Road Lexington

I-75 @ Winchester Road

US 60 @ US 127 Frankfort

US60 @ US127

US 127 @ Frankfort Frankfort

US127 @ Frankfort KY

US 60 @ US 460
Frankfort
US60 @ US460

I-75 MP 127
Georgetown
I75 NB @ MP 127

I-64 MP 97
Winchester
I-64 WB @ MP 97

Mountain Parkway near Slade

US 23 at 119

 

I-71/I-75 at I-275
Near Covington
I-71/I-75 @ I-275

I-275 at Mineola Pike
Near Covington
I-275 @ Mineola Pike

I-275 approaching KY 20/Airport
Near Covington
I-275 East of KY 20/Airport Exit

Bluegrass Parkway Bardstown

I-65 MP 32

Downtown Louisville @ 2nd & Broadway
Louisville
Downtown Louisville @ 2nd & Broadway

I-64 @ I-264
Louisville
I-64 @ I-264

I-264 @ Freedom Way
Near Louisville International Airport
I-264 @ Freedom Way

I-75 at MP 36
London
I-75 @ MP 36

I-75 at MP 23
Corbin

I-75 @ MP 23

I will update things later Monday. Take care.

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Winter storm update

Good afternoon, everyone. Our major winter storm is inching closer to the bluegrass state and will move in later Sunday night and Monday. This will provide much of the region with a shut down snowstorm and that will be followed by bitterly cold temperatures.

A winter storm warning is out for basically the entire state through Tuesday Morning. Here’s a breakdown:

– Snow develops across the west after midnight and rolls eastward by morning. The snow will become heavy Monday into Monday evening.

– With a frozen ground and temperatures mainly in the teens during the entire snowstorm… you won’t lose a single flake to melting. Those same cold temps will actually help increase the snow amounts. Here’s a look at my New Call For Snowfall..

Special 2

– I beefed up totals across central and eastern Kentucky to account for some heavier bands setting up. It is very possible for much of the state to pick up a foot of snow out of this. Some areas could top that in the central and east. There ‘s also an outside chance those numbers are a little low.

– Watch for some sleet trying to mix in with the snow along the Tennessee border and south.

– Winds are looking gusty at times and we could have blowing and drifting snow.

Now… that breakdown is JUST for the snowstorm through Tuesday morning. What comes after this deserves a breakdown of its own. Here we go…

– Another potent arctic front moves in Wednesday with widespread snow showers and squalls with additional accumulations.

– Wind gusts with this system may reach 30-35mph at times. With the potential for a lot of snow on the ground…. some big time blow and drifting snow is possible.

– Historic cold is an increasing possibility behind this front. Here’s the latest forecast from the GFS for Thursday morning…

GFS Temps

Wow!

To say this is a dangerous week of winter weather would be an understatement. You should prepare now for a major winter storm and brutally cold temperatures.

I will have additional updates later today and will also be on WKYT-TV this evening and through the entire event.

Take care

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A snowstorm is likely late tonight into Monday

Good Sunday, everyone. A major winter storm will roll into our region late tonight into Monday and this will likely deliver a lot of snow to the entire state. This system may be followed by record cold temperatures by the middle and end of the week.

This storm is coming at us from the southwest and will roll across the Tennessee Valley. That will mean snow breaks out from west to east late tonight into Monday and it will become heavy at times.

With temperatures in the teens, we will maximize the snowfall and that can lead to some big totals. Here’s a first call map:

Special 2

As you can see, I have much of the state in a general 6″-12″.  That is the first call and I will fine tune the numbers and placement as the day goes on.

Something else I’m seeing more of during this event… wind. We could have some blowing and drifting going on with this as well Monday into Monday night.

The various computer forecast models area all showing even higher totals than what I have. Here’s the European Model:

Euro

While I am not totally sure of the algorithm used by weatherbell… I’m pretty sure that’s based on 10-1 snow ratios. Our ratios will likely be higher than that given the amount of cold present. Much of the snow will fall with temps in the teens.

The GFS also shows a major snowstorm and has been trending strongly toward the European:

GFS Snow

The NAM:

NAM

Temps by Tuesday morning may reach zero in some cases. Another arctic front brings snow squalls in here on Wednesday and that unleashes record cold by Thursday morning…

Euro 2

I will have updates later today. Take care.

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