Winter Weather Continues

Good Sunday, folks. Our nasty weekend of winter weather rolls on with more rain and some snow out there today. We’ve had every form of precipitation this weekend, so what’s another day or two with more?

The best chance for additional accumulating snows early today will be across northern parts of the state. Here are the current Winter Weather Alerts:

As that pulls away, one small disturbance is leftover for late Sunday into Monday morning. This will be a light mix and light snow maker than can put down light accumulations across, especially southeastern Kentucky:

Temps rebound quickly by the middle of the week before another system moves in with rain by Friday. That takes us into next weekend and another potent setup. The European Model presses arctic air in here with a storm system developing along the boundary:

That’s a snow signal from the lower Mississippi Valley through our region and into the Mid-Atlantic.

The Canadian has a similar look:

The new version of the GFS is also similar but has two storms:

The GFS has the same look, but is, predictably, farther east:

The model does follow that up with another potent storm that unleashes brutal cold on the country:

The funny thing is… Something like that is totally plausible in the pattern taking shape. It’s uncanny how this is evolving in relation to the winter forecast and my analog years.

You’re really going to be hard pressed to ever find a colder look on the Ensembles than what they’re giving us over the next few weeks:

I leave you with your tracking tools:

Hamburg Area from WKYT Studio
Lexington

I-75 @ Newtown Pike
Lexington

I-75/I-65 Northern Split Lexington

I-75 MP 127
Georgetown

I-64 at KY-801
Near Morehead

I-64 MP 97
Winchester
I-64 WB @ MP 97

Florence

No image available.

Covington

No image available.

No image available.

Louisville

No image available.

Have a great Sunday and take care.

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Tracking winter weather

Good Saturday to one and all. It’s a wicked weather day across central and eastern Kentucky with accumulating snow, rain and a mix of rain and snow impacting the region. This action looks to take us all the way through Sunday and Sunday night.

Here are a few thoughts to begin the day:

  • This band of snow is lifting into northern Kentucky through the morning.
  • Snowfall with goes from very little in the south to higher numbers in the north, especially areas of east-central Kentucky and north.
  • Some snow covered roads are likely early on.
  • As that band lifts our. temps rise above freezing for areas along and south of Interstate 64 by early afternoon.
  • Light rain takes over for the southern half of the state as the next wave moves in later today into tonight. This rain continues for areas south of 64 with rain and snow along the 64 corridor. More snow falls in the north.
  • Where does the evening and overnight band of accumulating snow set up across the northern half of the state? That may be a constant nowcast.
  • Most areas should see whatever is left switching to a little light snow on Sunday.

I have you loaded with Saturday snow tracking toys:

Hamburg Area from WKYT Studio
Lexington

I-75 @ Newtown Pike
Lexington

I-75/I-65 Northern Split Lexington

I-75 MP 127
Georgetown

I-64 at KY-801
Near Morehead

I-64 MP 97
Winchester
I-64 WB @ MP 97

Mountain Parkway @ MP 36
Near Pine Ridge

Florence

No image available.

Covington

No image available.

No image available.

Louisville

No image available.

No image available.

No image available.

E-town

No image available.

I-65 MP 36
Near Bowling Green
I-65 MP 36

I-65 @ 234
Near Bowling Green
I-65 @ 234

Natcher Parkway MP 5
Near Bowling Green
Natcher Parkway @ MP 5

US 41A Gate 5 Fort Campbell Entrance
Fort Campbell
US 41A @ Gate 5

I-24  MP 4 @ US 60
Paducah
I-24 @ US 60 MP 4

I-24 MP 7 @ US 62
Paducah
I-24 MP 7 @ US62

Have a great day and take care.

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Winter storm update

Good evening, folks. I wanted to drop by for a very quick update on the winter storm pushing into the region from the west. Things remain on track for a decent snowfall for many areas to start the weekend, with more of a messy mix later Saturday and Sunday.

Here’s a look at the current snowfall forecast through Saturday morning:

The current Winter Weather Alerts:

The forecast for Saturday through Sunday still appears to feature accumulating snow in the north with rain for much of the southern half of the state. That snow line may dip into the Interstate 64 corridor Saturday evening and night and that’s something to watch for:

A lighter brand of snow and rain will be with us later Sunday into Sunday, but I can’t rule out some light accumulations:

 

 

Hamburg Area from WKYT Studio
Lexington

I-75 @ Newtown Pike
Lexington

I-75 MP 127
Georgetown

I-64 at KY-801
Near Morehead

I-64 MP 97
Winchester
I-64 WB @ MP 97

Mountain Parkway @ MP 36
Near Pine Ridge

Florence

No image available.

Covington

No image available.

No image available.

Louisville

No image available.

No image available.

No image available.

E-town

No image available.

I-65 MP 36
Near Bowling Green
I-65 MP 36

I-65 @ 234
Near Bowling Green
I-65 @ 234

Natcher Parkway MP 5
Near Bowling Green
Natcher Parkway @ MP 5

US 41A Gate 5 Fort Campbell Entrance
Fort Campbell
US 41A @ Gate 5

I-24  MP 4 @ US 60
Paducah
I-24 @ US 60 MP 4

I-24 MP 7 @ US 62
Paducah
I-24 MP 7 @ US62

Enjoy the rest of the evening and take care.

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Winter weather rolls in tonight

Good Friday to one and all. Our winter storm is working toward the region, bringing a round of snow to much of the area tonight and early Saturday. From there, we see a nice battle setting up between rain and snow.

Snow should develop across western Kentucky by late afternoon and will roll toward central Kentucky by late evening or into the wee hours of Saturday morning. This will bring a wet snowfall to much of the area, with the greatest amounts across the northern and western sections:

Here’s my latest call for snowfall through Saturday morning…

Will that be perfect? Nope, but it’s a rough estimate of how this may play out.  Again, those lines may go a bit north or south depending on how the day plays out. I will update that map a little later on.

Here’s a look at the current Winter Weather Alerts:

A quick check on what the models are showing through around noon on Saturday, finds some impressive numbers.

Here’s the Hi Res NAM

The NAM

Short range Canadian

Canadian

European

GFS

For the rest of the weekend, my thoughts remain pretty much unchanged. The best chance for snow is across the northern parts of the state, with rain across the southern half and a buffer zone in the middle. That’s the zone that could go either way from Saturday afternoon through early Sunday:

A degree or so will make a big difference in where the rain vs. snow line sets up.

I leave you with regional radar to track the snow from the west:

Make it a good one and take care.

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A wintry weekend ahead

Good Thursday, folks. Winter is back in the bluegrass state as cold temps and snow flurries continue. These flurries are the opening act to a much bigger system arriving this weekend, bringing accumulating snow and a messy mix to the region.

Let’s begin with today. Wind chills are frigid with high single digits to low teens to start the day, and low 20s to end it. Snow showers are putting down light accumulations across central and eastern Kentucky and that could cause a few slick roads early today.

Here’s your regional radar:

This is the opening act to our weekend winter storm. I’m still rolling with this general theme:

Again, all of that is subject to be moved a little farther north or south with future updates today and Friday.

Here’s a breakdown of how things stand:

  • This is a Friday night through Sunday night event that may actually include 3 different waves of precipitation.
  • The first wave arrives from west to east late Friday evening into Saturday morning and is mainly in the form of snow. This likely delivers accumulations to areas of western, central and northern parts of the state. Some of that may make it into the east and southeast.
  • That Friday night/Saturday morning setup has a chance to overachieve.
  • There may be a lull in precipitation for a time Saturday afternoon and evening, with mainly rain falling across the southern half of the state. That rain line may get as far north as the Interstate 64 corridor for a time.
  • As the second low passes to our southeast Saturday night and early Sunday, the next wave of precipitation really kicks in. This may still be in rain form across the southern half of the state, with snow across the northern half.
  • A third, weaker, system develops Sunday night into Monday with light snow across central and eastern Kentucky.
  • Given the fact this will be a roughly 3 day event, snow depth may never actually match snowfall. I haven’t even mentioned any kind of totals at this point, but should have a First Call For Snowfall around noon or so.
  • Moral of the story, the farther north you go in the state, the better the chance for several inches of snow. The farther south, that potential goes way, way down.
  • NONE OF THIS MEANS YOU’RE GOING TO HAVE A LOT OF SNOW ON THE GROUND WHERE YOU LIVE. 🙂

Let’s do a quick check of what the various computer models are showing. The European Model keeps spitting out a decent hit for much of the region, with the emphasis on the northern half of the state. Here are two different snowfall maps from the same run. One uses the standard 10 to 1 ratio while the other uses the Kuchera ratio:

10-1

Kuchera Ratio

Keep in mind those are snowfall numbers through Monday.

The Canadian Model is in very good agreement with the European:

The NAM is a funky model with snow setups like this because it loves to overdue warm air advection, which leads to anomalously high precipitation totals. The run only goes through Sunday morning, but fell in love with north central Kentucky:

Again, the NAM is VERY likely overdoing things and is the model voted most likely to have wild swings from run to run. 🙂

That brings us to the GFS, which seems to be having issues of the opposite kind. It continues to run much drier with this storm than every other model. It’s snow shield looks undercooked in all areas on the map:

Have a great day and take care.

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The cold leads to weekend winter weather

Good Thursday, folks. Old Man Winter has rolled back into the bluegrass state, bringing cold temps and a few flurries. As we head into the upcoming weekend, it’s all eyes on a developing winter storm that will likely bring snow our way.

Before we get to that system, let’s concentrate on what’s going on out there today. Highs are hanging in the low 30s, but gusty winds make it feel closer to 20 degrees. I can’t even rule out a couple of flurries or snow showers, especially across the east:

Thursday looks like another cold and windy day with highs around freezing and a wind chill down in the low 20s. The day may actually start with a wind chill around 10 degrees.

Our weekend winter storm system starts to impact our weather Friday night and looks to continue through the weekend.

  • This system is different than the systems we’ve had over the past month. It has cold air already in place and a cold high to the north.
  • The track of the low is pretty much west to east across the southern states, then it tries to turn the corner up the coast.
  • This low will have an inverted trough into the lower Ohio Valley. That funnels moisture into the cold air, producing accumulating snow for many.
  • Still, the southern half of the state may see this switch to a rain/snow mix or plain rain for a time on Saturday and Saturday night.
  • All of this should go back over to snow and light snow on Sunday.
  • For areas getting in on all snow for the duration of the event, several inches of snow will be likely.

Here’s a map of my current line of thinking:

Keep in mind those lines may shift north or south over the next few days. An upgrade to a Winter Storm THREAT may come later today if confidence comes up just a bit.

As far as the forecast models go, we see them with the same general idea, but they are vastly different with the amount of precipitation across the region.

The European Model isn’t holding back:

The government shutdown is negatively impacting the American models like the GFS and NAM. There’s no one around to maintain these models, so the skill scores are apparently dropping off. So, I guess we have to take them with a grain of salt.

Anyway here’s the GFS:

The average snowfall map from the 21 member GFS Ensembles looks like this:

The Canadian

Have a good one and take care.

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Winter weather rolls back in

Good Tuesday, folks. Our string of very mild days is coming to an end as winter flexes a little muscle in the coming days. Cold temps are blowing back in, with an increased threat for winter weather by the upcoming weekend.

Temps today are still mild ahead of another cold front moving in. This front may also touch off a few showers:

Cold air waits until tonight to surge in here and really sets up shop for Wednesday and Thursday. Those two days are going to be quite the shock as highs stay below freezing, with 30mph wind gusts making it feel MUCH colder.

Our northwest wind flow may also be strong enough to spit out some flurries or snow showers across the eastern half of the state. Here are the areas with the best chance of seeing some flakes:

This brings us to the end of the week/weekend storm potential. Confidence is high that winter weather will impact our region from late Friday through Sunday. The extent of that impact remains to be seen. Much of that depends on how much interaction we get between the northern branch and the southern branch. That will dictate where this storm goes and how strong it gets.

As I have mentioned many times, this is a different setup from the storm systems of the past 3-4 weeks. We have cold air already in place and a cold high to the north of it.

The GFS rolls this thing from west to east across the south, with an inverted trough into our region:

The new version of the GFS is far and away the farthest north solution, but doesn’t have very many model friends to play with. Still, the model puts down quite a bit of winter weather:

The majority of the individual members of the GFS Ensembles are ere a healthy hit for the bluegrass state:

Here’s the average of those 21 members:

The European Model continues to struggle with the southwestern energy and is likely too slow with it, keeping the storm system too weak. The Euro actually has two lows:

That leads to much more of a disjointed looking snow shield:

The JMA has a southern low working west to east with an inverted trough into our region, then it turns the corner up the coast:

The colors are barometric pressure anomalies and not temperatures. Notice the big high pressure funneling cold air into this storm from the north. That’s something we did not have with the past several systems.

Have a great day and take care.

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Winter returns later this week

Good Monday, folks. The first full week of the new year is off and running with big changes on the weather menu. Old Man Winter is set to return later this week and into the coming weekend.

Before we get to that point, we have another mild day taking shape. Highs will be deep into the 50s and winds become gusty. Showers develop from west to east this afternoon and evening as a cold front drops in:

The cold air is lagging behind the second system arriving late Tuesday into Tuesday night. That sets the stage for a very cold middle and end of the week. Below freezing highs show up Wednesday and Thursday, with gusty winds making it feel much, much colder. A few flurries and snow showers fly across the eastern half of the state on this northwest flow.

This brings us to the late week and weekend winter weather potential. Once again, I’ve been saying to watch for the models to see much more of a system than what they had been showing the past few days. Right on cue, they are doing just that.

The GFS is a “go big or go home” model. The last run was in the “go home” camp and didn’t really show much with this storm. The latest run is in the “go big” camp:

The new version of the GFS has had much more of a system than the GFS it’s about to replace. The current run is also “go big”:

The European Model is finally starting to understand the energy isn’t going to hang back in the southwest, so it’s kicking more and more of it out sooner. That means it’s seeing more and more of a winter weather threat for our region:

Watch for this system to grow stronger on the European in the coming days.

The ICON Model is also seeing more of a system than the Euro:

This is a legitimate storm system for us to watch this week. The seasonal trends for these systems to become stronger is something that we cannot deny. Why would this one be any different than the others? Well… Here’re a couple of ways… It actually has cold air ahead of it already in place and there’s high pressure to the north of the storm.

You will see lots of model swings over the next day or so before they start coming together by Wednesday. Moral of the story is to not get too excited or depressed based on any one run until then. 🙂

That said, this week is kind of the transition week into a very wintry setup for our region. The Ensembles are seeing the transition pretty well as we head into the middle of the month:

GFS Ensembles

European Ensembles:

Have a great Monday and take care.

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Changes for the week ahead

Good Sunday, everyone. Our weekend weather continues to be absolutely awesome across central and eastern Kentucky. Sunny skies and mild temps are just what the weather doctor ordered. Unfortunately, things are about to change as we head into the new week. Winter weather actually shows back up.

Today is another winner with a mix of sun and clouds and temps deep into the 50s. Soak. It. Up!

Today’s clouds will thicken into Monday as a cold front drops in from the northwest. That front brings some late day showers in here, but temps are still in the 50s.

A second front arrives later Tuesday and that one has a nice push of cold air behind it through the end of the week:

A strong northwest flow kicks in behind that front and that will push our temps below freezing for highs. Overnight wind chills may dip into the high single digits.

That same northwest wind is also good for a few flurries and snow showers for Wednesday and early Thursday. You can see the areas the Ensembles show with some snowflakes:

The late week and weekend system shows up differently on all the models as we see several of them exhibiting their usual biases. The GFS is too flat and the European is holding too much energy back in the southwest. The Canadian ain’t having none of that:

I am certainly not ready to bite on anything like that, but, unlike any storm system in the past month, cold air will already be in place ahead of whatever develops.

Have a great day and take care.

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Better weather for the weekend

Good Saturday to one and all. We have a MUCH better weather pattern blowing in for the weekend. This means we will actually see the sun for a change, and milder temps will join the early January party.

Skies quickly become mostly sunny today with highs around 50 in many areas. Sunday looks even better with temps deep into the 50s with a mix of sun and high clouds.

The pattern for next week continues to trend colder and colder and this is the beginning of sustained winter settling in to much of the country.

A cold front moves in on Monday, bringing gusty rain in here for the afternoon and evening. A second front looks to pass through here with cold air and some snow showers showing up behind it for Wednesday and Thursday:

The colder setup means very little warming shows up after that, with another shot of cold trying to be ushered in by a storm system from Friday into the weekend:

The pattern after that is ripe for more winter weather:

All of this is arriving right on schedule.

Have a sensational Saturday and take care.

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