From storms to possible record lows

Good Monday to one and all. A major pattern change is underway, delivering showers and thunderstorms to the region. They will bring some much-needed rain to many areas and will unleash a huge outbreak of cool weather.

Monday’s showers and storms might be a little on the strong side. Localized severe weather is possible, especially in southern Kentucky. Winds will gust as the storms blow through.

These boomers are being pushed by a big dip in the jet stream. This is a setup you normally see in the dead of winter instead of the middle of July:

That will allow for the possibility of record lows in coming days. The NAM is forecasting highs in the low to middle 70s for Tuesday:

NAMLows by Wednesday morning might drop into the upper 40s to low 50s across much of the region:

GFS 2Records might very well be broken Wednesday and Thursday. Both days should feature some sunshine, with highs staying in the 70s.

Our next chance of rain arrives Friday and Saturday and is looking more impressive by the day.

Speaking of rain, let’s track Monday’s showers and possible strong storms:

Tuesday’s risk area

Latest Day 1 convective outlook

Current watches

Current Watches

Possible watch areas Current MDs

Have a great Monday and take care.

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Tracking storms and colder air

Good Sunday to one and all. Rounds of showers and thunderstorms are set to increase later today and into Monday. These storms may become severe, but should bring some beneficial rains to the region. All of this is followed up by the potential for record cold by the middle of the week.

Scattered storms are possible early today, but the main action may come in a late day line of storms from the northwest. High winds may accompany the strongest storms. Additional rounds of showers and storms will be around Monday into early Tuesday as our pattern undergoes a major change.

This change will bring in a deep trough across the central and eastern part of the country:

Euro 3

Record low temps for Lexington and surrounding areas are in Jeopardy Wednesday and Thursday. Highs look to be in the very pleasant mid and upper 70s.

Let’s get back to tracking the severe threat of today…

Today’s risk area

Latest Day 1 convective outlook

Current watches

Current Watches

Possible watch areas Current MDs

Hamburg Area from WKYT Studio
Lexington

I-75 @ Winchester Road Lexington

I-75 @ Winchester Road

I-75 @ Iron Works Pike Lexington

I-75 @ Clays Ferry Bridge South Between Lexington and Richmond

US 60 @ US 127 Frankfort

US60 @ US127

US 127 @ Frankfort Frankfort

US127 @ Frankfort KY

I-75 at MP 36 London

I-75 @ MP 36

Have a great Sunday and take care.

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The heat won’t last

Good Saturday to one and all. Hot temps have invaded the bluegrass state and will hang around through the weekend. This isn’t going to last as our pattern starts to take on much more of a fall look and feel into next week.

Highs today will be right around the 90 degree mark for many areas. Humidity levels will increase and this could lead to a scattered storm or two going up. If a storm goes up, chances are it would be coming in from the northwest.

Your daily dose of trackers:

Current temperatures

Sunday will find us with similar temps, but with a better shot at some storms going up. These storms will really increase by Sunday night into Monday and some of these could become severe. We don’t want the severe part of it, but the rains would be a welcome sight.

The models are pretty confident of the rain chances:

GFS

NAM

EUROPEANEuro

The bigger news will be the amount of cool air coming in behind that front. Highs in the mid to upper 70s will be common for the middle and end of next week. Lows could approach record levels. Check out the GFS forecast for Wednesday morning:

GFS 3I can live with that!

Make it a great Saturday and take care.

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Big temperature changes ahead

Good Friday and welcome to the weekend. Temperatures are going to be the big weather story. We will steam things up this weekend before thermometers come crashing down next week.

Highs Friday will reach the middle 80s for most of Central and Eastern Kentucky. Skies will be partly sunny with a touch more humidity.

Temperatures and humidity levels will really surge this weekend. Highs could flirt with 90 degrees. A few thunderstorms are likely Saturday, and that should increase Sunday and Monday.

Monday looks like our best shot at some much-needed rainfall. The GFS has some decent totals:

GFS Rain

That would certainly go a long way in helping out our lawns and gardens. The big news will be the air coming in behind this:

Euro 2

That is a big blast of early fall air across our region. Check out the highs for the middle of next week:

EuroLows may drop close to 50 degrees for a couple of mornings. How about that for the heart of summer?

Enjoy your Friday and take care.

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Watching for weekend changes

Good Thursday, everyone. We have a lot of changes to our weather pattern over the next week or so. These changes will lead to toasty weather and storms, followed by a big drop in temps. Buckle up.

Thursday is another nice one, with highs in the low 80s with a mix of sun and clouds. Low humidity will make it a very pleasant day.

Friday will find highs again in the middle 80s with mostly sunny skies.

Our weekend looks to feature a return of the steamy weather as higher humidity surges in. The core of the heat stays to our southwest, but some storms are likely to work in from the northwest:

Euro

The storms should increase Sunday and Monday as a system works our way from the north. The air behind this looks cool for the middle and end of next week. Check out the huge dip in the jet stream:

CanadianMake it a great day and take care.

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Mild temps return

Good Wednesday, folks. The showers and thunderstorms of Tuesday were about as wimpy as you will ever see. That’s bad news for those of us who could use a little rain. Needing some good news? Temps continue to look pretty good.

Highs Wednesday will top out between 80 and 85 degrees, with a mix of sun and clouds. Isolated showers will be possible as a cold front drops in from the northwest.

Current temperatures

Thursday continues to look very nice, with partly sunny skies and highs from 78 to 82 for most of the region. Throw in low humidity and you have the makings of a nice weather day. A scattered shower might pop up during the afternoon.

Humidity should increase this weekend as highs hit the mid and upper 80s. Scattered showers and storms will crank up during this time and might continue into early next week.

Big changes toward cooler weather appear to be in the making for next week. Check out what a huge dip in the jet stream the models are forecasting:

Euro That would give us a prolonged stretch of normal to below-normal temperatures. That same model also suggests we get some rain over the next 10 days:

Euro 2

Have a great day and take care.

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Tracking severe storms

Good Tuesday, everyone. Severe thunderstorms are a strong possibility Tuesday across Central and Eastern Kentucky. These boomers could cause some problems before the day is over.

Here’s a breakdown:

- Waves of storms will work in from the west and northwest Tuesday and Tuesday night. Damaging winds and large hail will be the main factors.

- Isolated tornadoes will be possible.

- Heavy rainfall is likely during that time and that might cause some problems.

- Cooler air moves in for the middle and end of the week. This won’t be as cool as our last shot, but the temps certainly look pleasant.

I have you all set to track today’s action:

Tuesday’s risk area

Latest Day 1 convective outlook

Current watches

Current Watches

Possible watch areas Current MDs

Rainfall

Hamburg Area from WKYT Studio
Lexington

I-75 @ Winchester Road Lexington

I-75 @ Winchester Road

I-75 @ Iron Works Pike Lexington

I-75 @ Clays Ferry Bridge South Between Lexington and Richmond

US 60 @ US 127 Frankfort

US60 @ US127

US 127 @ Frankfort Frankfort

US127 @ Frankfort KY

I-75 at MP 36 London

I-75 @ MP 36

I-71/I-75 at Buttermilk Pike Near Covington

I-71/I-75 @ Buttermilk Pike

I-64 @ 3rd St. Exit Louisville

I-64 @ 3rd St. Exit

Downtown Louisville @ 2nd & Broadway Louisville

Downtown Louisville @ 2nd & Broadway

I-65 @ 234 Near Bowling Green

I-65 @ 234

I-24 MP 4 @ US 60 Paducah

I-24 @ US 60 MP 4

Have a great day and take care.

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Watching the severe weather threat

Good Monday to one and all. The weekend’s nice weather is about to become a distant memory as showers and thunderstorms increase. This isn’t a bad thing, because we could use some rain across Central and Eastern Kentucky. The bad part comes with the potential for severe thunderstorms.

We will see scattered showers and storms developing as the day wears on. Those storms might become strong or severe from northwest to southeast on Monday afternoon and evening. High winds and hail are likely in some areas.

Additional rounds of showers and storms will carry us into Tuesday and Wednesday. The severe weather threat will be with us during this time.

Heavy rainfall is a good possibility through the middle of the week. After that, another pleasant round of temperatures moves back in. This won’t be as cool as the last round, but we should be a little below normal.

Here are your storm tracking tools of the day:

Monday’s risk area

Latest Day 1 convective outlook

Current watches

Current Watches

Possible watch areas Current MDs

Rainfall

Hamburg Area from WKYT Studio
Lexington

I-75 @ Winchester Road Lexington

I-75 @ Winchester Road

I-75 @ Iron Works Pike Lexington

I-75 @ Clays Ferry Bridge South Between Lexington and Richmond

US 60 @ US 127 Frankfort

US60 @ US127

Have a great Monday and take care.

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Storms for the week ahead

Good Sunday, folks. Our 4th of July holiday weekend is wrapping up on a nice weather note. Things are about to go the other direction as showers and storms increase over the next few days. That’s not a bad thing because we could use some rain.

Highs today will be back into the low and middle 80s for most areas. You will notice an increase in humidity levels and some high clouds streaming in.

Current temperatures

Those clouds will lead to scattered showers and storms going up across the region by Monday afternoon. Storms would then really increase by Tuesday.

Here’s the simulated radar from the NAM:

NAMSome strong storms and very heavy rainfall will be possible Tuesday into Wednesday as a cold front swings into the region. That front may put the brakes on just to our south for the end of the week. This would keep the threat for scattered storms around during this time.

Regardless, a big dip in the jet stream likely means temps stay normal to below normal:

EuroEnjoy your Sunday and take care.

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The nice weather continues

Good Saturday, everyone. Our 4th of July holiday weekend rolls on with more in the way of gorgeous weather conditions. This nice stuff is about to give way to another stormy setup, but that doesn’t come until next week.

Here’s a breakdown of what to expect:

- Sunshine continues today with afternoon temps warming into the lower 80s.

- Sunday will start in the upper 50s and end in the middle 80s. We will notice a jump in humidity levels and that will spark a few clouds by late in the day.

- Scattered thunderstorms return by late Monday with highs in the upper 80s to near 90 degrees.

- Storms begin to increase Tuesday into Wednesday:

EuroThat’s from the European Model. The GFS shows something similar:

GFS

That’s a setup that can deliver some much needed rain to our part of the world.

Have a great Saturday and take care.

 

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