A little rain moves in

Good Tuesday, everyone. We have another weak system bringing rain and a few storms to the region today. This is the first in a series of systems set to impact our weather as Old Man Winter finally shows signs of coming to life.

Today’s showers and storms are more prominent across the south and southeast, but a few will slip into areas of the Interstate 64 corridor. Here are your Tuesday rain tracking tools:

Another front sweeps in on Wednesday with gusty winds and a few showers sweeping across the region. Colder winds will blow in on Thursday, with a bigger system late Friday into Saturday. This one has a chance to start as a little wintry mix before a few showers and storms take over ahead of the front. Once the front goes through, we could see a few flakes as temps crash on Saturday:

GFS

EURO

Canadian

Notice how the Canadian has more of a front end winter weather chance on Friday. We shall see.

A very cold pattern then engulfs much of the country behind that system and it looks to lock in:

Here are the temperature departures from normal up close and personal:

Winter weather lovers should be liking the pattern ahead, even as it’s the time of year I’m usually turning my attention toward spring anyway.

Have a terrific Tuesday and take care.

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Active setup continues

Good Monday, everyone. We are rolling through our Monday with a pretty good looking day. Clouds will continue to fight it out with the sun as temps hit the 50s in most areas.

A southern system will throw some showers and storms into parts of the state later tonight and Tuesday. The best chance for this action will be across southern and southeastern Kentucky, but some rain should make it to Interstate 64 or a little north.

We will also have to watch for heavy rain issues across the southeast, where more than an inch of rain will fall:

Another front crosses the state on Wednesday and brings a few gusty showers into the region.  Temps behind this will come down for Thursday, but there’s a quick recovery ahead of a more potent system blowing in for the weekend. This arrives Saturday with the potential for more thunderstorms and high winds:

Look at those Saturday wind gusts:

You can see the cold air coming in behind this late Saturday into Sunday. That may bring a few flakes behind the front.

Confidence continues to grow for a very cold pattern engulfing much of the central and eastern parts of the country:

I’ll see you all later today for updates. Have a good one and take care.

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Tracking high winds and the severe threat

Good Saturday, everyone. We continue to watch a potent storm system rolling across the region, bringing high winds and the potential for severe storms. The greatest risk for severe weather rolls in during the afternoon and evening.

Here’s a quick recap:

  • High winds will top 50mph at times and could reach 60mph or greater as storms move in.
  • Strong to severe storms will be possible this afternoon and evening as a line moves from west to east.
  • Damaging thunderstorm winds are the main threat, but I can’t rule out a quick tornado spin-up.
  • These storms may also bring a quick inch or two of rain to cause local high water issues.
  • Ahead of the storms, record highs will fall. Temps top out between 70 and 75 degrees, making this one of the warmest days on record for January.

I have you all set to do some Saturday storm tracking:

Current watches
Current Watches

Possible Watch Areas

Current MDs

Have a great day and take care.

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High winds and strong storms ahead

Good Friday to one and all. We are dealing with a windy and mild day as scattered showers and storms roll across the region. This won’t be all day type rains, but we will see the greatest concentration across the north and west.

Once into Saturday, things take a walk on the wild side.

Let’s begin with today and roll forward. Temps hit the low 60s for many on that strong southwest flow. Wind gusts may reach 40mph at times. A couple of showers and thunderstorms will also be noted. Here are your Thursday tracking toys…

The setup for Saturday continues to be ugly for millions of Americans. Our storm will have high winds and severe storms ahead of it and a snowstorm and ice storm behind it:

This future radar shows a line of storms working across the state from west to east Saturday into early Saturday evening:

High winds will be likely with this setup:

With or without thunderstorms,those winds can cause some issues on Saturday.

Let’s try to change it up, shall we? The models continue to show a major pattern realignment starting late next week through the following week. Watch all this on the European Ensembles:

The latest run of the GFS goes crazy with the cold. These are the low temps showing up:

Have a fantastic Friday and take care.

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Wild weather on the way

Good Thursday, everyone. We have one more calm day before we get into a pretty wild looking setup to start the weekend. That’s when a potent storm system moves our way, likely causing some issues as it moves through.

Here are my updated thoughts:

  • Rounds of showers and storms then work in from late Friday through Saturday night, bringing a flood and flash flood risk.
  • The greatest high water risk continues to be across western and parts of central Kentucky.
  • A few strong to severe storms will be possible on Saturday.
  • High winds of greater than 50mph will be possible Saturday and Saturday night.
  • Near record high temps are possible on Saturday, especially across eastern Kentucky. That’s where temps can reach 70-75.

The winds are likely to be a major issue with this setup. Gusts of 40mph or higher are possible Friday:

That’s nothing compared to the gusts coming Saturday into Saturday evening. The models are going for 60mph+ gusts for some areas…

GFS

NAM

Here’s the Severe Weather Outlook for Friday:

The Saturday Severe Weather Outlook focuses the threat farther east:

Have a great Thursday and take care.

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A wild weekend ahead

Good Wednesday, everyone. It’s a calm weather day across the region, but that calm is about to go away pretty quickly. That’s because a potent storm system moves our way by the weekend, bringing heavy rain, strong storms and near record highs.

Let’s start with today and roll forward. High temps are in the 40s with a mix of sun and clouds showing up.

Now it’s time to focus on the big system rolling in here for later this week into the weekend. This will bring the potential for flooding, strong storms, high winds and record highs.

Here’s a quick summation of what looks to go down:

  • Scattered showers and storms develop on Thursday and this action will increase into Friday, especially across central and western Kentucky.
  • Rounds of showers and storms then work in from Friday night through Saturday night, bringing a flood and flash flood risk.
  • Several inches of rain may fall across western and central Kentucky.
  • A few strong to severe storms will be possible on Saturday.
  • High winds of greater than 50mph will be possible Saturday and Saturday night.
  • Near record high temps are possible on Saturday, especially across eastern Kentucky. That’s where temps can reach 70.
  • After a break on Sunday, another heavy rain and thunderstorm maker looks to return for Monday and Tuesday. Another system may follow that up a few days later.

Here are my initial areas of interest for the possibility of flooding:

The central and western parts of the state continue to be the main focus for flash flooding , general flooding and river flooding. The models back this up:

That could still shift around a bit, but the setup is for repeat shower and thunderstorm action, especially late Friday through Saturday. This is also when some severe thunderstorms will be possible.

Make it a great day and take care.

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A little snow before a lot of rain

Good Tuesday, everyone. A touch of snow is impacting parts of the region early today, then it’s game on for a very active setup late this weekend into the weekend. That can bring heavy rain and strong storms our way.

Our Tuesday starts with a Winter Weather Advisory for parts of the region:

Light accumulations of snow will be noted in some areas, possibly causing slick roads early on. By this afternoon, sunny skies take control with temps reaching the 40s.

The setup from late this week through early next week is likely to feature a ton of rain around here. It may even produce high winds and strong storms.

I made this map a few days ago to highlight the potential:

The Hazards Outlook from the Weather Prediction Center is similar and shows the different systems and threats:

You can see the initiatl storm producing heavy rain all the way through the northeast, with the next system producing heavy rain around here early next week. You will also notice the severe threat just to our south. The SPC has areas just to our south on alert for Saturday:

I wouldn’t be surprised to see that severe risk all the way into the lower Ohio Valley Saturday into Saturday night.

High winds are likely to be a big player. Check out the highest gusts from the various models…

EURO

GFS

This is a potent storm system that may cause all kinds of issues in our region. From flooding to severe storms and high winds… We may have it. Areas of central and eastern Kentucky may also be near record highs on Saturday.

The next system will need to be watched for Monday and Tuesday.

Here are your snow tracking toys for early today:

Mountain Parkway near Slade

Pine Mountain

Morehead

Winchester

London

Mt. Vernon

Have a great day and take care.

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Winter Weather Advisory

Good Monday, everyone. We have a taste of winter weather rolling into parts of the region later tonight and early Tuesday. This will quickly zip away as we turn our attention toward a series of big rain makers coming up.

Our first system is a light snow maker for a part of the state late tonight and early Tuesday. A Winter Weather Advisory is out for several counties in central and southeastern Kentucky:

Some local 1″-2″ amounts will be possible in this region, but there will be a super sharp edge to where this falls. I will have a New Call For Snowfall on WKYT starting at 4pm.

In terms the late week and weekend rain maker, things continue to look ugly for the region. Rounds of heavy rain and a few strong storms will be noted. The exact placement of the heaviest rainfall corridor continues to bounce around a bit.

The Canadian is targeting more of western and central Kentucky:

So is the GFS:

The ICON is more widespread for the entire region:

Make it a good one and take care.

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A little visit from winter

Good Saturday, everyone. Heavy rains from the past few days are beginning to wind down as colder air crashes in. That means the rain will change to some wet snow in the afternoon and evening.

With the rain ending as some snow tomorrow afternoon and evening, a touch of slush may show up. The greatest chance is across the mountains of the southeast:

Sunday looks like a MUCH better day and that lasts into much of Monday, but the next system looks to bring rain and snow in here Monday night and Tuesday.

Here’s how the Euro sees this setup:

Yesterday, I pointed toward a setup with a trough in the west and a ridge in the east and talked about how that’s likely a super soaker setup around here.  The new Euro takes that to the limit with the system coming late next week:

Look at the Euro rainfall forecast from just that storm on:

Holy smokes that’s ugly!

I leave you with your daily dose of tracking tools:

Have a great day and take care.

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More rain rolling through

Good Friday, everyone. Additional rounds of rain are rolling across the bluegrass state and this looks to continue into Saturday. That’s also when a touch of winter weather finally returns to central and eastern Kentucky.

Let’s begin with today and roll forward. Temps are in the 50s and that’s the good news. The bad news is, of course, the rain. It’s coming at us in waves and will be locally heavy at times through tonight. That will lead to high water concerns across far southern and southeastern Kentucky.

Here are your tracking toys for the day:

Rain will be with us early on Saturday, but cold air crashes in behind the departing storm system and changes the rain to wet snow:

Some light accumulations will be possible on grassy and elevated surfaces.

Another system will follow that up from Monday night through Tuesday night. The track of this system will be the determining factor on rain or snow where you live.

The dominant pattern through the middle of January is a trough in the west and a ridge in the eastern part of the country. Throw in an active storm track and precipitation is likely well above normal around here:

Given our wet ground and swollen waterways, additional high water issues may develop.

Have a happy Friday and take care.

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