A few showers start election day

Good Tuesday and happy election day. Our big day is kicking off with a weak cold front rolling into the state, bringing a few showers with it. This boundary is the first of several systems we are tracking over the next few weeks, with a few of them possibly bringing some winter weather.

Today’s big day is kicking off with a few showers working across the state, but this won’t last all day. Much of it should be gone by early this afternoon. Here are your election day weather trackers:

Wednesday continues to look like a great day as temps head toward 60.

Things change quickly Thursday as rain moves in here ahead of the next cold front. That front will have a wave of low pressure along it, bringing fairly widespread rain with it. Temps will then crash from north to south late Thursday with a few flakes of snow showing up for some:

That sets the stage for a frigid Friday as temps start in the low and middle 20s for many, with some upper teens possible in the cold valleys. Wind chills will also be way down there:

High temps may not get out of the 30s for many on Friday.

There’s a sneaky upper level system showing up in our northwesterly flow and this could bring additional flakes in here Friday night or Saturday morning. Here’s the upper level disturbance I’m talking about:

This brings us to our arctic front arriving late Sunday into Monday. This may have a band of showers ahead of it, but much of the precipitation looks to happen in the cold air behind it:

That could be a band of light accumulating snow for some areas:

That could even open up the lakes to add a few flakes into the arctic winds. The temps look brutal for this time of year. Highs from Monday through Wednesday may not get above the freezing mark. Lows by Tuesday and Wednesday mornings may approach record lows and reach the low and middle teens.

Gusty winds would make it feel much colder:

Have a good Tuesday and take care.

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Cold fronts highlight the week of weather

Good Monday, everyone. It’s the first full week of November and we are tracking no shortage of cold shots heading our way. A series of cold fronts will move through here over the next week and change, bringing the potential for a little winter weather.

The week is starting off pretty nice on this Monday. Temps are in the 50s to near 60 after starting things out back in the 20s.

The first front is slated to arrive Monday night into early on Election Day. This should bring a small line of showers into parts of the state:

Temps on Tuesday will be a little chillier because of some clouds and showers around. It’s not going to rain all day, so no excuse to not go vote!!!

Temps do rebound on Wednesday, but our Thursday modified arctic system comes rolling in here. The models are still struggling with specifics and some (sup, GFS?) are just lost.

This system should bring rain in here on Thursday with the potential to end this as a little rain and snow Thursday night, with a few flurries into Friday. The Canadian continues to be most consistent:

The Euro has waffled a bit with intensity, but still has the same theme:

The temps on the Canadian are coldest, but the Euro isn’t too far behind. Watch this drop and notice how Friday stays in the 30s for highs:

That would lead us into a very cold weekend, but things look to tun even colder early next week with a potential true shot of arctic air. This may also have a wave of low pressure along it, bringing a winter weather threat. Here’s how the Euro sees it now:

That would certainly be a nice first snowfall of the year… much earlier than normal. This is what the GFS has been showing for some time now and it still has something:

Here’s the Euro temp setup behind all that:

The wind chill forecast from the Euro:

The trend is all we are talking about with regards to the next few systems. Never look at any one particular model and take it verbatim, because that’s not what models are meant for.  We shall see what these systems have to offer, but the operational models are matching the setup from the Ensembles and some of my early analog years.

Have a happy Monday and take care.

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Another active setup ahead

Good Sunday to one and all. We are putting the wraps on a cold first weekend of November, but our sky has looked pretty darn good. That nice looking sky starts the week, but there’s another potent system arriving.

The next cold front rolling in here arrives Monday night and early Tuesday. This may throw a shower into northern Kentucky:

That leads to a windy and seasonally chilly Election Day across Kentucky.

That brings us to the late week system that will be pushed by another surge of arctic air. This front is likely to have a wave of low pressure along it that tries to develop into a northern Ohio Valley/northeastern US winter storm. This can bring rain and snow to Kentucky Thursday into Thursday night.

Here’s the Canadian:

The European Model has a healthy system:

Depending on the exact wind flow behind that, it could be our first Great Lakes induced snow shower and flurry maker into Friday.

Speaking of winds. Those gusty winds combine with early November arctic air to give us some nasty wind chills on the Euro:

THAT is cold!

Not to be outdone, the GFS continues to go ballistic with the cold and a storm system a few days later:

Lows behind that:

That seems a little on the extreme side, but extreme seems to be the new normal when it comes to weather.

Have a great day and take care.

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Tracking cold fronts toward Kentucky

Good Saturday and welcome to the weekend. We continue to deal with colder than normal weather and that appears to be a sign of the times. It’s a pattern that looks skewed pretty cold over the next few weeks.

We do have another front dropping in this weekend, but it’s moisture starved as it arrives this afternoon. There is just the smallest chance for a shower going up as the boundary moves through.

The next front then makes a run at us by Election Day, but that shouldn’t have much of an impact. It’s the system coming in behind that for the end of the week and it will have the greatest impact of the next week. Arctic air looks to fill in behind this front that should have a wave of low pressure along it. That has a chance to bring a winter weather threat our way later in the week:

Watch all the cold shots lined up to invade the country through the middle of the month:

With the cold temps, the potential is there for some snow showing up from time to time around here. The European Ensembles are showing this over the next few weeks:

The Canadian Ensembles are drunk:

Have a great day and take care.

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A cold start to November

Good Friday, everyone and welcome to November. The month is off and running on a very cold note and this looks to continue through next week. That’s when a series of cold fronts move in and may bring another round of winter weather in here.

Let’s start with the impressive rainfall from the past 2 days:

October ends as the second wettest October on record for Lexington. That is absolutely ridiculous considering September was the driest month ever recorded. Extremes are the new normal.

Temps dropped more than 30 degrees on Halloween with snow showers and flurries showing up right on cue:

As the flakes fly out of town tonight, temps continue to crash into the 20s for lows. This could actually lead to a touch of black ice forming on roads. Wind chill readings may also drop into the upper teens at times.

November 1st looks to be a nice and cold day. Highs are only in the 40s as skies become partly sunny. That sets the stage for a cold Friday evening for high school football action across the state.

Our next cold front drops in here on Saturday and may touch off a rain or snow shower in the north:

That reinforces our cold air into Sunday, with another front arriving on the scene at some point Election Day. The front coming in behind that has even colder air to work with and the forecast models are not handling it very well at all. You’re seeing run to run changes and that’s to be expected with such an anomalous pattern.

We will need to watch for a wave of low pressure to develop along the arctic boundary as it arrives by Thursday and Friday:

GFS

CANADIAN

Have a great Friday and take care.

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A small taste of winter possible

Good Thursday and Happy Halloween! It’s a wild weather day across central and eastern Kentucky as we go from heavy rain to a touch of winter weather within a few hours. All of this comes behind a major temperature drop that’s well underway.

Our day starts with heavy rain and even a thunderstorm or two across central and eastern Kentucky. Temps during this time are generally in the 60s across central and eastern Kentucky and dropping into the 30s in the west.

Those 30s sweep eastward quickly this afternoon and evening, making for one major temp crash. Winds will be gusty as a few showers continue. As the colder air moves in, it may spit out a few snowflakes across parts of the region. Not everyone will have a chance of seeing them, and this wouldn’t be a big deal except for the fact it’s the first flakes and its happening on Halloween.

The Hi Res NAM continues to highlight some areas seeing passing flakes:

As temps drop into the 30s this afternoon and evening, gusty winds will make our wind chill numbers drop into the 20s. A few upper teen wind chills may even show up later tonight and early Friday morning. That’s when actual lows drop deep into the low and middle 20s:

Highs on Friday are in the 40s with a mostly sunny sky taking control.

Another cold front drops in here on Saturday and there’s a chance for a rain or snow shower across the north as it passes through. The models are seeing this a little better with each run:

Here are your Halloween Howler tracking tools:

Make it a great Halloween and take care.

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A wild ride into Halloween

Good Wednesday, folks. Rounds of showers and thunderstorms are developing today as our big Halloween storm system moves in. This storm will bring some pretty wild weather as we head into the big day.

Here’s a little breakdown of what to expect:

  • Rounds of rain and a few thunderstorms roll in on today and continue through Thursday as a few waves of low pressure move through.
  • The main low works right on top of us Halloween
  • Heavy rainfall of 1″-3″ will be possible  in some areas.
  • Wind gusts of greater than 30mph will be likely.
  • A few strong storms are also possible this afternoon.
  • Temps crash from west to east on Halloween. We will be in the 60s during the morning with the 30s by late afternoon and early evening. Check out the temp trend from 8am Thursday through 11pm Thursday evening:
  • Wind chill temps will be even colder and absolutely frigid for this time of year:There continues to be a small chance for the cold air to catch the back edge of the departing rain shield by Halloween evening. That could bring a few flakes of snow mixing in with the rain across central and eastern Kentucky. The Hi Res NAM continues to see a couple of flakes:

The Canadian sees a little better chance:

So does the GFS:

So, there are multiple models spitting out the first flakes of the season. Again… It would just be a few flakes if we get them, but that’s still pretty awesome to see.

Here are your Wednesday storm tracking toys:

Have a great day and take care.

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A big storm for Halloween

Good Tuesday, everyone. We have one more nice day before things go downhill quickly for Wednesday and Halloween. That’s when another big storm system rolls in here, bringing heavy rain and gusty winds. This may cause issues for trick or treating hours.

Before we get to all that, the weather is pretty nice today as highs reach the low 70s for many. Skies will be partly to mostly sunny, but clouds will filter in later in the day.

Here’s a breakdown of how this next storm system looks to play out:

  • An arctic front is stalling just to our west and this will keep us in moist southwest flow ahead of it.
  • Heavy rain and thunderstorms roll in on Wednesday and continue through Thursday as a few waves of low pressure move through.
  • The main low works right on top of us Halloween
  • Heavy rainfall of 1″-3″ will be possible across the entire state.
  • Wind gusts of greater than 30mph-40mph will be likely.
  • A few strong to severe storms are also possible starting Wednesday afternoon.
  • Temps crash from west to east on Halloween. We may be in the 60s during the morning with the 30s showing up by evening.
  • Can that drop catch the back edge of the rain and spit out a flake or two? The odds are against it, but stranger things have happened. I think there’s a better chance for some flakes north of the Ohio River.

Since finally catching on several days ago, the GFS has been very consistent with how it handles our storm and other models have been trending toward it:

The model continues to hint at the a few flakes mixing in as the cold catches the back end of the rain:

That’s interesting to say the least and why I say it’s not impossible, especially with this major temp drop during the day:

Don’t forget about the wind chill:

Have a great Tuesday and take care.

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Another big storm on the way

Good Monday, folks. October is quickly running out of days and we have another big time storm system heading toward the bluegrass state. That system may very well cause some issues for trick or treaters on Halloween.

The weather out there today looks really good with highs in the upper 60s and low 70s. Tuesday should be a similar day, so let’s enjoy it.

changes starting Wednesday. That’s when a modified arctic front drops close to the region and slows down, allowing low pressure to develop along the front. That looks to roll right on top of us Wednesday and Thursday:

GFS

Canadian

European

The end result for us looks to be rounds of heavy rain and even the potential for a few strong thunderstorms. Winds should be very gusty during this time and we may pick up another significant rainfall. That rain would push our region into one one of the wettest Octobers on record. Yes, you heard that right… one of the wettest Octobers on record on the heels of September being the driest month in recorded history. To take it one setup further, we will be above normal in rainfall for the fall season, which began on September 1st. That is absolutely amazing!!

You can also see the stripe of heavy snow from the midwest into the Great Lakes. That could be record snowfall for some of those areas. You also see some flakes into areas of the Ohio Valley late on Halloween.

Very cold air sweeps in here late Halloween into the start of November:

Have a great Monday and take care.

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Better weather for a few days

Good Sunday to one and all. Our big rain and wind maker is now pushing east of the region, but another one is on the way for Halloween. In between, we look to get in on some nice weather for a few days.

Early morning rain will exist areas of eastern Kentucky, but low clouds remain with only a sprinkle or two leftover. Here are your radars to track the action to our east:

Once this storm moves away, we have a couple days before the next one blows in here. The setup across the country is really straight out of winter with lots of arctic air (October style) showing up. The boundary inches closer to Kentucky then slams the brakes on allowing for a big storm system to develop. That sweeps the very cold air in here later Halloween into Friday:

That’s pretty wicked to see.

That setup sends a weak system just to our west with rain and snow from Missouri into the Great Lakes Monday and Tuesday:

The next storm system is going to bring a lot of rain and wind to us Wednesday into Thursday. Watch how this wraps up, bringing snows from the plains into parts of the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes:

Make it a great Sunday and take care.

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