A busy pattern before Thanksgiving

Good Monday to one and all. We have a very busy pattern taking shape this week, and that’s likely to roll into Thanksgiving week. This setup take on more of a winter look before the big day arrives.

Lots of clouds will be with us Monday with highs on the seasonal side. That seasonal brand of chill carries us through the middle of the week, when another shower-maker arrives. The greatest chance of rain is on Wednesday.

All eyes continue to be on a potent storm system rolling our way for Friday and early Saturday.

This one has the looks of a big-time wind maker across our region, and it might even throw some strong storms our way:

A big temp spike ahead of that front will be followed by a big temp drop behind it. The real cold lags just behind the front and arrives Saturday night and Sunday:

If a true northwesterly wind develops Sunday or Sunday night, then some snowflakes will be possible. Some of the recent models have been showing this possibility:

That might be a huge lake-effect outbreak following this storm.

The various operational models will have the usual wild swings on how the pattern looks. You will see big changes from run to run, because that’s what operational models do from this far out. The ensembles are made up of dozens of individual runs, spitting out the average from each. Granted, the data is smoothed out, but it’s a good indication of where the pattern goes.

The GFS ensembles show a healthy cold shot late this weekend, with cold digging in for Thanksgiving week:

Those same “smoothed-out” ensembles are also showing snowflake chances late this weekend through Thanksgiving weekend:

Even individual runs of the operational members show the wintry potential from time to time. The GFS shows this for Thanksgiving:

The Canadian model also is showing some wintry potential in the lead-up to Thanksgiving:

Make it a great Monday and take care.

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A very active week ahead

Good Sunday to one and all. We are wrapping up a chilly weekend with showers rolling across the bluegrass state. These showers are kicking off a very active pattern that threatens to get a little bumpy by the end of the week ahead.

In the short term, we are dealing with lots of clouds out there today with temps in the upper 40s to near 50. A few showers will develop this afternoon and evening, but rain totals aren’t very impressive. Track away:

The next front zips in here Tuesday night and Wednesday with gusty winds and much better coverage of the rains:

Temps run slightly colder than normal behind the front:

The bumpy part of the weather program comes on Friday as a powerful storm system works into the Ohio Valley from the west. This storm is forecast to continue strengthening as it moves in, taking on a negative tilt. Systems like that can produce high winds and even severe thunderstorms, followed by a big temp crash.

Here’s how the GFS sees it:

The European Model is similar:

That could be another Ohio Valley severe weather event and is something for us to monitor in the coming days.

As that system wraps up to our northeast, cold air surges in behind it next weekend into early Thanksgiving week:

If the northwest flow on the European Model is right, some snowflakes could dance about the sky to start Turkey week.

The European Model shows another modified arctic air mass diving in here, with the coldest anomalies setting up on top of our region:

Have a sensational Sunday and take care.

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Cold temps continue this weekend

Good Saturday to one and all. Our weekend is starting out with a blast of cold air knocking our numbers way down. While not quite as cold, the rest of the weekend will be pretty darn chilly, with some showers rolling in.

Our day is starting with temps deep into the 20s in most areas, with wind chills dipping into the teens at times. Clouds roll in this afternoon, keeping temps in the 40s:

Those clouds will produce a few showers from later Sunday into early Monday. This will help keep our highs on the chilly side of things:

Sunday

Monday

Our next cold front arrives Tuesday night and Wednesday, with an increase in chilly rains:

The pattern after that continues to take on a very wintry look starting next weekend and into Thanksgiving week. This is introduced to us by a strong system late Friday into early Saturday:

From there, the European Model shows an amazing setup with massive blocking going on in all the right places for us to turn cold:

That provides a steady stream of arctic air into the region:

Enjoy your Saturday and take care.

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Frigid temps kick off the weekend

Good Friday to one and all. The lowest temps since early last March have arrived in the Bluegrass State. This kicks caps off a colder-than-normal weather week here. Now, we focus on a forecast that looks to turn even colder as we inch closer to Thanksgiving week.

This is a heck of a shot across the eastern part of the country:

Temps this morning will be in the 20s, with wind chills in the teens. Afternoon highs will be in the upper 30s in many areas, but wind chills will be much lower.

This sets the stage for a very cold night, with lows in the low and middle 20s and wind chills in the teens. Clouds will increase Saturday, with highs ranging from the mid- to upper 40s.

Clouds roll in Saturday as a system works toward us by Sunday. That will bring chilly showers across the state through early Monday:

For many places, highs this weekend are only in the 40s.

That system is zipping through here a little faster than I thought because another system quickly takes its place by late Tuesday and Wednesday:

For a while now, I’ve been pointing toward the lead-up to Thanksgiving as a period to watch for winter weather potentially showing up. The ensembles have been on this for the past week or so, and now we find the operational models joining the mix.

The European model started the trend Thursday night and keeps showing it:

The GFS looks like the European model for next weekend, with a deep trough digging in here:

Look what it follows that with for Thanksgiving week:

Watch the cold shots take aim at us:

Again, we are seeing the GFS now looking like what the ensembles have been suggesting for the past several days.

Have a great Friday and take care.

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A frigid Friday ahead

Good Thursday, everyone. Our seasonal chill is about to turn downright cold as we roll into Friday. Temps look nothing short of frigid, especially when we factor in the winds. Those wind-chill numbers will be way, way down.

Thursday’s a nice weather day across the commonwealth. Highs are generally 50 to 55, with gusty winds ahead of our cold front. This is a dry front, but the focus is all on the cold air. Look at how much real estate gets in on the cold stuff over the next few days:

That brings 20s in here by Friday morning, with afternoon highs in the upper 30s and low 40s. Those highs are impressive considering we will have sunny skies for the most part. Temps drop into the 20s Friday evening, with readings in the low 20s waiting on some of us by Saturday morning.

Winds are going to be gusty during this time, giving us some heart of winter wind chills. Here’s the NAM:

The Canadian model numbers are even colder:

Highs for Saturday reach the middle upper 40s and low 50s with an increase in clouds. Those clouds are ahead of another cold front sweeping in Sunday. This will bring chilly rain to the region:

The long-range European ensembles continue to trend toward many of the analogs I’ve been throwing out at you since summer. The cold look from Alaska and western Canada makes it way into the eastern half of the country for Thanksgiving week:

The cold shots keep coming on the model, with the focus of the cold settling more into the United States as we head into December:

Given that’s a smoothed-out average from a month away, it’s a healthy cold signal showing up on the model.

The same model run isn’t shy with snow chances through the middle of December:

Of course, that’s just a model set to be used as guidance, But it’s usually the best of the best for general trends. That’s the only reason to look at seasonal models: trends.

Have a great Thursday and take care.

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Tracking a late-week cold shot

Good Wednesday, folks. We continue to see our thermometers running on the chilly side of things, but later this week might turn downright cold. That’s from the first of two systems likely to affect our weekend weather.

Before we get to them, we are still fighting some clouds and isolated showers out there now. Highs Wednesday will generally range from the mid 40s to near 50 for many areas. The most likely chance of showers is across the south and southeast and comes early in the day:

Thursday is a windy day, with highs in the 50- to 55-degree range. The gusty winds are ahead of a moisture-starved cold front arriving Thursday night. That front then introduces colder air for Friday.

Check out the numbers from the NAM:

That’s a very cold look, with wind chills making it feel even colder. High school football playoff games will be frigid, with readings in the upper 20s to near 30.

Lows by Saturday morning will probably drop into the low 20s in some of our traditional cold spots. Afternoon highs are near 50, with gusty winds and an increase in clouds. Those clouds are ahead of a cold rainmaker for Sunday:

As we look toward the days leading up to Thanksgiving, we find a pattern trying to load up with cold shots from western Canada and Alaska. This is where some really cold air is currently building up, and the GFS ensembles want to drain some of that into the states:

Maybe a cold turkey this year? Hmmm.

Have a great day and take care.

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Chilly rain rolls through

Good Tuesday, everyone. No matter how you slice it, this is just a raw weather day across the Bluegrass State. Chilly rain is rolling across the region, unleashing a colder-than-normal setup for the rest of the week.

Tuesday’s rain will be heaviest early on, with a lighter brand taking over in the afternoon and evening. Temps will drop into the low 40s from north to south as the day wears on.

Track the ugly action with your favorite weather tools:

Hamburg Area from WKYT Studio
Lexington

I-75 @ Winchester Road
Lexington
I-75 @ Winchester Road

US 60 @ US 127 Frankfort

US60 @ US127

Wednesday and Thursday will feature a seasonal chill in the air, with highs in the upper 40s to low 50s. Winds will be gusty, and I can’t rule out a few showers, especially in the south.

A weak front slides in early Friday, but it looks precipitation free. It will give us even lower temps, with lows deep into the 20s for both Friday and Saturday.

That’s when we watch another system working in from the northwest. This should bring gusty winds and cold showers back into town:

The pattern next week will probably feature a cold front arriving about every three days or so.

Have a terrific Tuesday and take care.

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A rainy start to a colder week

Good Monday, everyone. Showers and strong thunderstorms are rumbling across the state early today, with more rain to follow. This action kicks off a much colder week of weather across central and eastern Kentucky.

Storms very early this morning can still pack a high wind punch. This action sinks into southern Kentucky this afternoon, with leftover showers to the north. Temps drop through the 50s behind the boundary.

Here are your radar tracking tools:

The potent cold front responsible for the early storms will slow down and become stationary across southern Kentucky this evening. That allows waves of low pressure to develop along the front, leading to chilly rains carrying us through the middle of the week:

Temps for the rest of the week into the weekend will run much colder than normal:

A few days of highs in the 40s appear likely from Tuesday through the upcoming weekend. That’s when another system rolls in here, likely bringing more chilly rains:

As I said, this is a much colder week than the one we are coming out of. The overall look to the pattern over the next few weeks will feature our typical back and forth setup for temps.

Make it  a great Monday and take care.

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Strong storms possible tonight

Good Sunday, everyone. We have a very windy and warm day taking place out there, and this may fuel some strong storms across the region tonight into Monday morning. That’s when a potent cold front arrives in town.

Before we get to the storms, temps will spike deep into the 70s. Wind gusts may reach 30mph at times this afternoon and evening.

Storms arrive overnight and early Monday with high winds a possibility. These storms may also drop an inch of rain in a few areas. The greatest severe threat is across the northern part of the state. I’ll have your tracking tools in a bit.

The front slows down and stalls on top of us on Monday. That allows another low to develop along the front, leading to some heavy rains through Tuesday. The NAM is impressed with those totals:

As that low passes east on Tuesday afternoon, temps crash from northwest to southeast:

The rest of the week is seasonably cold with the potential for additional showers as systems skirt by just to our south. One of those may still try to develop into something a little bigger.

The next system works in here for the weekend and early next week, with the Canadian being the deepest and coldest of the bunch:

The European Model keeps trending stronger with this system and is just a little colder than before:

It will be interesting to watch the trends for that system as we get closer to next weekend.

The European Ensembles did a great job in giving us a 2 week heads up to the late October snowflake potential, and they are saying “heads up” over the next 2 weeks:

Here are your tracking tools for tonight’s storms:

Current watches
Current Watches

Possible watch areas
Current MDs

Make it a great day and take care.

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Very active setup continues

Good Saturday, everyone. Warm and windy weather is on tap for the weekend, but this pattern isn’t going to last much longer. A pattern change toward colder is coming next week and it could be introduced by some strong storms and heavy rain Sunday night into Monday.

Highs out there today will range from the mid 60s in the north to low 70s in the south. Winds increase during the day and may hit 20-25mph at times. We will also need to be on guard for a scattered storms or two:

Sunday looks VERY warm with temps deep into the 70s. Winds will continue to gust up with 30mph+ gusts a possibility.

As we are enjoying the windy and warm weather, severe thunderstorms will likely develop just to our north and west. All of that may then form a squall line of strong to severe storms that races in here from the northwest Sunday night into early Monday.

The Canadian:

The GFS:

That front stalls out on top of us, allowing heavy rain to develop Monday night into Tuesday:

Much colder air then sinks in behind this for the rest of the week. The GFS Ensembles keep trending colder:

The European Ensembles are also much colder:

This is a pattern where the cold shots will likely keep showing stronger as we get closer. I’ve mentioned how there is a ton of cold air available and that’s something we have NOT seen the past few winters, and have not seen this early in the season since back in 2010.

The Canadian Model just went nuclear with the cold late next weekend:

That’s likely too early in the season, but something like that is possible later this month into December.

Have a great Saturday and take care.

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