A lot of rain on the way

Good Monday, everyone. It’s the first full week of February and it’s looking like another very busy week of weather. Several low pressure systems will roll our way, bringing a lot of rain to central and eastern Kentucky. There’s also the chance for a little winter weather.

Let’s begin with today and roll forward. Highs are in the 60s with an increase in clouds. Those clouds may produce a few showers by late this evening:

A slow-moving front moves into the region and stops for a few days, bringing waves of low pressure along it. This will lead to rounds of heavy rain with the potential for a little thunder. As our boundary presses a bit farther east with each passing low, we have the opportunity to get in on some winter weather, especially late in the week. It won’t take much adjustment to actually get some accumulating snow from this setup, so keep that in mind going forward.

This is something the GFS is showing:

The ICON is similar:

The Canadian doesn’t see as much winter weather:

The Euro doesn’t have much snow:

It does follow it up with a snow maker next weekend:

Temps should rebound quickly with the potential for another big rain event the following week.

Have a great Monday and take care.

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A very active week ahead

Good Sunday, folks. It’s no ordinary Sunday… It’s Super Bowl Sunday AND Groundhog Day. While those two are getting all the attention, it’s Mother Nature stealing the show with a taste of spring. Unfortunately, this won’t last long as a lot of rain is on the way for the week ahead.

Temps today make a run at 60 as skies become mostly sunny. Temps in the 60s will hang around into Monday as clouds increase ahead of our very busy setup.

Monday will still see temps in the 60s as we wait for our wet pattern to kick in. Several waves of low pressure work toward the region and could spit out quite a bit of rain. There’s also the chance for some winter weather later in the week as the cold air bullies its way in.

Here’s how the GFS is seeing this:

Some pretty hefty rain numbers continue to show up:

The Canadian Model keeps showing a little more of a winter threat:

The European Model:

That would be quite a bit of rain falling and my fear is, this is a pattern locking in for February. If we expand the GFS rainfall forecast out to the next two weeks, the latest run is showing this:

In the overall scheme of things, I’m not sure I have ever seen a more consistent long term pattern than the one we have been in for the past few years. It’s really uncanny when you think about it.

Have a good one and take care.

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A few showers continue

Good Saturday to one and all. February is off and running with another weak system working into the region. This will bring a few showers in here before we get in on a surge of spring temps starting Super Bowl Sunday.

Temps out there today are mainly in the 40s with mostly cloudy skies and a few showers. This won’t be as rainy as Friday, but you should keep the umbrella handy if you’re heading out.

Here are your radars to find the scattered showers:

Sunday is the rare Super Bowl, Groundhog Day combo and Mother Nature isn’t going to disappoint. Skies will become mostly sunny with temps making a run at 60. Yowza!

Monday finds clouds increasing with temps likely deep into the 60s. This is ahead of a super slow-moving front that basically becomes stationary near us. This will allow waves of low pressure to develop along the boundary, bringing waves of rain with it. Heavy rainfall totals are very likely with this setup.

The question for winter weather folks is… can we get this front just a bit east to allow us to be on the cold side of a few of these lows? That’s a possibility during the second half of the week.

Here’s how the current model suite is seeing things.

The GFS has a lot of rain and a little bit of snow:

The Canadian model also has a lot of rain, but has a bigger snow system showing up:

The ICON is similar:

Have a great day and take care.

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Another weak system closes January

Good Friday to one and all. It’s a little on the dreary side as we close out the month of January. That’s appropriate for a month featuring lots of dreary, yet almost no winter weather. As we head into February, we find more of the same for day one.

Let’s begin with the showers showing up out there today. These rains aren’t very heavy and we may even see a brief burst of snow across areas of northern Kentucky. Here are your radars to track the action:

Highs today are mainly in the 40s.

A quick hitting system zips in and out of town on Saturday, bringing a few showers across the eastern half of the state. Our Saturday forecast is looking better as we get closer. Winds will be rather gusty with temps hitting 50 west and mainly 40s for the rest of the state.

Sunday looks AMAZING with temps in the upper 50s to low 60s.

The setup for next week features a slow moving front sagging into the region. Temps ahead of this will generally be in the 60s for Monday and Tuesday. As the front moves in, waves of low pressure develop along the front and could bring heavy rain through here from Monday night through Wednesday. As the front tries to push just to our east by the second half of the week, this could lead to some winter weather possibilities.

You can see all this playing out on the Euro…

The GFS is actually pretty similar…

The ICON has a similar look…

Have a great day and take care.

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Half and half for Super Bowl Weekend

Good Thursday, everyone. It’s a much better day taking shape across central and eastern Kentucky as some dry air works in. With our Super Bowl Weekend ahead of us, we are looking at an ugly start, but an awesome finish.

Temps out there today recover into the 40s with a mostly cloudy sky. Overall, this is a pretty good looking day, so get out and take advantage of it.

Our next system develops well to our southeast on Friday, but will throw a few showers in here. This could even begin as a touch of frozen stuff in the north. That’s ahead of a Saturday system diving in from the northwest with mainly rain, but this may end as a few flakes by evening. You can see all this on the NAM:

Sunday is the rare combo of Groundhog Day and the Super Bowl, but it will be Mother Nature stealing the show. Temps will spike into the upper 50s and low 60s with plenty of sunshine:

Temps for Monday and Tuesday will climb into the 60s on a strong southwesterly flow. This flow will also bring rounds of rain in here ahead of a slow-moving cold front. That front moves in here on Wednesday, unleashing much colder air. That same front may stall near the region allowing another big storm to develop along it.

Watch this whole setup on the EURO:

That would be a rather interesting setup. Have a great day and take care.

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A few flakes move in

Good Wednesday to one and all. It’s another cold day in the Commonwealth as we track a light flake maker in from the west. This system continues to look pretty darn wimpy, but it is what it is. Right, snow lovers?

Temps are in the 30s today with a few flurries flying around. There is the chance for a period of very light snow, especially across the western half of the state. Here is regional radar to follow along:

Another period of very light snow and flurries will cross the state tonight, but it will be in a weakening phase, so don’t expect much out of this.

Here’s how the individual models are playing it all:

NAM

Hi Res NAM

EURO

The weekend system continues to feature the main low going way to our east and southeast, with a weaker system diving in from the northwest. That should make for some ugly by Saturday and Saturday night:

Temps behind this will surge on Super Bowl Sunday and will likely head deep into the 60s by Monday and Tuesday:

Have a happy Wednesday and take care.

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Watching another weak system

Good Tuesday, everyone. Colder air is bleeding into the region today and it could bring a snowflake or two along for the ride. From there, it’s all eyes on a weak system moving in on Wednesday. That one is likely to bring a decreasing band of precipitation our way.

Temps out there today are generally in the 30s with mostly cloudy skies. There’s the small chance for a few flurries to fly as well.

Our Wednesday system scoots by to our south, but may have a band of rain and snow on the northern edge of this. That decreases the farther east it gets as we have fairly dry air in place. Can we get a touch of light snow into central Kentucky? That’s a small possibility and one that’s worth watching.

The Hi Res NAM focuses a little stripe of snow across the south:

The NAM is a little farther north:

The GFS has nothing at all:

The EURO is somewhere between the Hi Res NAM and the GFS:

That’s pretty choppy looking and is indicative of how weak this system is as it moves in. Did I mention “light” is the name of the game for those who actually see some snow from this? 🙂

The weekend setup continues to find a big storm system trying to come out of the south and ride up the east coast. At the same time, a system is dropping into the Ohio Valley. If you want a big winter event around here, you want those two systems to hook up.

As of now, that’s not looking likely. Here’s the GFS:

The EURO continues to look different, but not as much as before:

Have a happy Tuesday and take care.

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Watching a few systems for the week ahead

Good Monday, folks. We have a weak weather maker rolling across the southern half of the state today, with another ready to move our way by Wednesday. This is part of  fairly active pattern for the week ahead and beyond.

Let’s begin with our Monday and look ahead. Showers will be noted, especially across the south. This isn’t a ton of rain, but it’s making for a gloomy day for many. Here’s your regional radar:

Seasonally colder air comes in following that with the potential for a few flurries or a snow shower by Tuesday.

The next system moves in for Wednesday, but how much of an impact can we get from this? It’s a southern system rolling from west to east. Several of the models have been weakening this system quickly as it reaches Kentucky. The NAM is not among them and brings a nice swath of accumulating snow:

The European is among the models crushing this system as it moves into western Kentucky:

It’s not like there is a big cold high to the north of that to steer it south and crush this thing, so let’s see if any other models join the NAM party later this evening.

In terms of the weekend system, the European Model is also crushing this system way, way south:

That may very well be a case of the Euro holding on too long to energy coming from the southwestern part of the country. That’s one of the biggest biases of the model.

The GFS has a much bigger system rolling up the east coast with a second system diving in behind it…

The Canadian is similar:

We shall see, but it’s actually good to have some potential to track! 🙂

Have a great Monday and take care.

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A couple of weak systems move in

Good Sunday to one and all. Seasonally cold temps roll on as we wait for our next system to impact the region. This is the first of two weak weather makers set to work across our region through the middle of the week.

We start with day with a few flurries and temps in the upper 20s and low 30s. Wind chills are closer to the upper teens. A little break in the clouds may even show up early this afternoon, but that won’t last long. Another batch of some light rain and, maybe, a touch of light snow works in tonight and Monday. The greatest impact from this appears to be across southern parts of the state.

Here’s your regional radar to follow along:

The Wednesday system also looks fairly weak and may only impact areas of southern Kentucky. The Canadian likes a stronger system farther north, though:

The EURO does not agree:

The GFS is more of a middle ground solution between the two:

A larger system tries to come out of the Gulf of Mexico late next week into the weekend. Where this goes remains to be seen, but it’s part of a very active storm track which you can see on the EURO into the start of February:

Make it a great Monday and take care.

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A touch of winter weather shows up

Good Saturday, everyone. After another soaking rainfall, it’s time to turn our attention toward a little winter weather showing up. We have the potential for some light snow showers through early Sunday, with additional systems showing up in the week ahead.

Today’s temps are marginal for snow, so anything that falls will be fairly wet with a lot of melting. Still, a little slush is possible, especially after dark. This will continue into early Sunday.

Temps are mainly in the 30s today and Sunday, but gusty winds will make it feel much colder. Wind chills are in the 20s:

I will have your tracking toys in a bit.

Another weak system brings a touch of light rain and some light snow Sunday night and Monday, then again by Wednesday.

The pattern for next weekend continues to feature the potential for a much bigger storm system somewhere in the eastern part of the country:

I leave you with your Saturday tracking tools:

Covington area

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Florence

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Interstate 71 in Gallatin County

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Maysville

Louisville

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Georgetown

Frankfort

Morehead

Lexington


Pine Mountain

Mt. Vernon

Corbin

Mountain Parkway near Slade

Make it  a great day and take care.

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