Winter weather starts the day

Good Friday to one and all. We have a nasty mix of light snow and light freezing rain showing up in many areas early today. This is creating slick roads for a lot of areas. Hang in there, the weather gets much better for the weekend.

Let’s begin with how things are looking this morning. Light snow and light freezing rain are making for a slow go in many places. I will have your tracking tools in a bit.

Temps rebound very quickly this weekend with 50 on Saturday and near 60 on Sunday. Winds will be gusty as that southwest flow kicks in. This will also lead to mild weather hanging tough into early next week. That same flow also means an increase in showers and a few thunderstorms.

Another surge of arctic air dives into the country by the middle of next week. This brings an arctic front into Kentucky around the middle of the week and that may very well have winter weather showing up behind it. The setup is there for several systems.

The new version of the GFS continues to latch on the potential:

The last two runs of the European Model are showing something similar:

Here are your tracking tools for the current winter weather maker:

Hamburg Area from WKYT Studio
Lexington

I-75 @ Newtown Pike
Lexington

I-75 MP 127
Georgetown

I-64 at KY-801
Near Morehead

I-64 MP 97
Winchester
I-64 WB @ MP 97

Mountain Parkway near Slade

Pine Mountain

Jenkins

Florence

No image available.

Covington

No image available.

No image available.

Louisville

No image available.

No image available.

No image available.

E-town

No image available.

Make it a good one and take care.

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One more winter system before it turns milder

Good Thursday to one and all. Bitterly cold air finally starts to ease today, with milder air moving in over the weekend. Between the two comes another winter weather maker later tonight and into Friday.

A little bit of light snow falls early this morning in the south and that may cause additional slick spots to develop.

While today isn’t as cold as Wednesday, a messy system moves in tonight into Friday. This is likely to mean a third straight day of school closings in many areas. As I mentioned earlier, the models are going to struggle with low-level arctic cold. That leads to colder air hanging tougher, leading to a better snow and freezing rain risk.

The models are slowly picking up on more and more of an initial snow threat:

GFS

New GFS

Slick travel conditions are increasingly likely, especially early on Friday.

From there, milder air surges in here for the weekend and early next week. Temps will make a run at 60 during this time, but a few showers and thunderstorms will be noted.

This setup isn’t going to last very long. Arctic air takes control of the pattern again for the second half of next week. Can we get storm system to develop along this next surge of arctic air? Maybe. The new GFS says so:

The numbers behind that front take us back to being much, much colder than normal:

Make it a great day and take care.

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Dangerously cold wind chills and snow

Good Wednesday, folks. When I write about ‘harsh winter weather’, today is what I’m talking about. Some snow and blowing snow are adding to the dangerously low wind chills to make this a weather day more typical of the Canada than Kentucky.

The early day snow system is a high impact travel event. An inch or so of arctic snow will fall in many areas, with blowing and some drifting snow showing up. This is actually making for some pretty awesome scenes playin out. Unfortunately, many roads are snow covered and may not improve much throughout the day. Stay safe if you’re travelling.

The main show of the day is the bitterly cold temps and dangerously cold wind chills. It may feel like -10 to -20 at times today into tonight. That’s in the danger category, so take all necessary precautions of you have to be outdoors for any period of time.

Another light snow maker tries to work across the state later tonight into Thursday morning. The greatest impact from this may be across the western half of the state. A few more travel issues are possible.

After another frigid day on Thursday, the Polar Vortex begins to lift out. That allows overrunning moisture to develop quickly Thursday night and Friday. I’m concerned about icy roads developing as a mixture of snow, freezing rain and rain moves in. It’s a setup where we have a frozen ground, with road temps well below freezing. Even for areas getting rain, icy roads can sometimes develop because of the frozen ground.

I’ll talk more about all that and what comes after that with my next updates. Until then, let’s do some tracking:

The Wind Chill Advisory is covering several counties also under the Winter Weather Advisory on this map:

Hamburg Area from WKYT Studio
Lexington

I-75 @ Newtown Pike
Lexington

I-75 MP 127
Georgetown

I-64 at KY-801
Near Morehead

I-64 MP 97
Winchester
I-64 WB @ MP 97

Mountain Parkway near Slade

Pine Mountain

Jenkins

Florence

No image available.

Covington

No image available.

No image available.

Louisville

No image available.

No image available.

No image available.

E-town

No image available.

Stay safe and stay warm. Make it a good one and take care.

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Bitterly cold temps push in

Good Tuesday, folks. A dangerously cold air mass is pushing into the region and will bring brutally cold wind chills with it. Accompanying this arctic air will be a couple of snow chances, one early this morning then another later tonight.

A Winter Weather Advisory is out for parts of the region early today, with Wind Chill Advisories starting later tonight into Wendesday:

This isn’t a lot of snow by any means, but it may be just enough to cause slick travel conditions early today. That’s especially true with wet roads that can freeze up as temps drop into the teens. Wind chills will be in the single digits this morning.

The next front arrives later this evening and should produce a band of gusty light snows. That may also cause a few travel issues at times.

Temps absolutely tank and winds crank behind this. That’s a dangerous combination for wind chills. Our in house WSI RPM computer model has some off the charts wind chill numbers on Wednesday:

That’s absolutely brutal and can cause issues. Actual temps from Wednesday morning through Thursday morning may range from -5 to 5 above. This is a full blown Frozen Pipes Alert!
The bitter cold pulls away by Friday, with overrunning moisture moves in, producing some winter weather:
Let’s get back to the arctic system rolling in today. Here are your tracking tools:

Hamburg Area from WKYT Studio
Lexington

I-75 @ Newtown Pike
Lexington

I-75 MP 127
Georgetown

I-64 at KY-801
Near Morehead

I-64 MP 97
Winchester
I-64 WB @ MP 97

Mountain Parkway near Slade

Pine Mountain

Jenkins

Florence

No image available.

Covington

No image available.

No image available.

Louisville

No image available.

No image available.

No image available.

E-town

No image available.

Have a great day and take care.

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Arctic front arrives tonight

Good Monday, folks. We have a decent weather day taking shape, then the bottom falls out tonight. That’s when an arctic front slams into the region, bringing a period of snow followed by bitterly cold temperatures for the rest of the week.

As of this writing, a Winter Storm Watch had been issued for southeastern Kentucky into Tuesday. I suspect much of this area and surrounding areas may be in a Winter Weather Advisory before all is said and done:

The arctic front bringing the snow sweeps in from northwest to southeast this evening into overnight. The snow band behind this increases the farther east and southeast you go in the state. That’s what complicates the snowfall forecast because it’s difficult to pinpoint where it starts to increase.

Here’s Your First Call For Snowfall:

The western side of those lines can are iffy, but I’m leaving wiggle room.

Gusty winds will blow around whatever snow you get outside your house into Tuesday. Wind chills on Tuesday are in the single digits and that’s warm compared to Wednesday and Thursday.

A second arctic system moves through Tuesday night and Wednesday morning, bringing another period of light snow to much of the state.

Temps behind this drop all day long on Wednesday as winds absolutely crank. Lows can reach zero or a little below through Thursday. Wind chill readings should be consistently below zero Tuesday night through Thursday:

Those are dangerous numbers showing up.

Here are your tracking toys to get ya through the day:

Hamburg Area from WKYT Studio
Lexington

I-75 @ Newtown Pike
Lexington

I-75 MP 127
Georgetown

I-64 at KY-801
Near Morehead

I-64 MP 97
Winchester
I-64 WB @ MP 97

Mountain Parkway near Slade

Florence

No image available.

Covington

No image available.

No image available.

Louisville

No image available.

No image available.

No image available.

E-town

No image available.

Make it a good one and take care.

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Bitterly cold temps and snow ahead

Good Sunday to one and all. We are wrapping up the weekend with a touch of light rain and light snow early in the day, but the focus is on the week ahead. A massive arctic air outbreak is coming our way, bringing bitterly cold temps and snow.

Our Arctic front is going to slam in here Monday night and will feature a wave of low pressure along it. As we have talked about, most of the precipitation falls behind the front, giving us our region the increasing potential to put snow on the ground. That’s especially true for central and eastern parts of the state.

The NAM shows what I’m talking about:

As expected, the GFS continues to shift west with the whole setup and is also picking up on the light snow maker zipping in behind it on Wednesday:

The above map is only for the arctic front snow potential and doesn’t include the Wednesday system. That second system is a likely arctic snow maker for most of the region.

The Hi Res NAM only goes through Monday night, but shows the beginning of a similar look to the above maps:

For areas getting snow, blowing snow will be an issue as winds will absolutely crank during this time! Travel conditions Monday night and Tuesday could go downhill very quickly across central and eastern Kentucky.

Bitterly cold temps slam in behind this system on Tuesday, with the coldest arriving for Wednesday and Thursday. Air temps may drop to zero or below in some parts of the state. Wind chills from Tuesday night through early Friday will be in the danger category. Wind chills by Wednesday morning are already as low as -20 on the NAM:

As the Polar Vortex relaxes later in the week into the weekend, watch for another potential snow maker to work in from the west.

Make it a great Sunday and take care.

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A little light snow this weekend

Good Saturday, everyone. We’ve made it tot the weekend and Old Man Winter is throwing a couple rounds of light snow across parts of the region. This action is the warm up act to a rather harsh looking pattern for the week ahead.

Let’s begin with today and roll forward. An area or two of light snow and flurries will roll across the state, leading to some minor accumulations in a few areas. Outside of today’s flakes, skies may become partly sunny for a time.

Another light snow maker then shows up later this evening and takes us through early Sunday. This has a better chance to put down light accumulations.  I will have your tracking tools in a bit.

The arctic front arriving late Monday into Tuesday continues to be on course to bring snow and bitterly cold air our way. How much snow depends on a wave of low pressure developing along the front and slowing it down. That’s a very plausible scenario, especially with a storm ahead of it forming off the east coast. The stronger that storm, the slower the front in our region, allowing for a wave to develop along it.

The NAM only goes through Monday night, but is showing this scenario:

Notice the negative tilt on the trough for Monday night:

That’s the key to this whole thing, you want that trough to be leaning back as opposed to leaning forward. If that trough is positively tilted, you only get a band of snow right behind the front.

The European Model continues to like the wave idea the NAM is showing:

The Canadian is singing a similar tune. Also, watch the system developing behind that:

The GFS is always the most progressive of all the models and it’s no different this go around:

Bitterly cold temps crash in behind this system, with the absolute brutal stuff staying just north. If we can get a flatter looking polar vortex, it would allow west-east moving snow makers to cut underneath it across our region later next week.

Here are your tracking toys for the day:

Hamburg Area from WKYT Studio
Lexington

I-75 @ Newtown Pike
Lexington

I-75 MP 127
Georgetown

I-64 at KY-801
Near Morehead

I-64 MP 97
Winchester
I-64 WB @ MP 97

Mountain Parkway near Slade

Florence

No image available.

Covington

No image available.

No image available.

Louisville

No image available.

No image available.

No image available.

E-town

No image available.

Enjoy your Saturday and take care.

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Light snow makers this weekend

Good Friday to one and all. Bitterly cold wind chills are with us early in the day as arctic air seeps in. As we head into the weekend, light snow makers are lined up and ready to roll across the bluegrass state.

Winds are cranking this morning as temps tumble early today. Wind chill numbers by range from -5 to +5 to start the day. Afternoon wind chills range from the upper single digits to low teens.

From there, additional light snow makers drop into the state from Friday night through Sunday.

Here’s the Hi Res NAM showing the action just through early Saturday night:

The NAM takes it all the way through the weekend:

We are likely to put snow on the ground this weekend, perhaps on more than one occasion. The Sunday one has some legs for a little more snow than the Saturday one.

The Polar Vortex is heading toward the United States and arrives early next week. Watch this monster:

I told you more than a month ago that you would be hearing the term Polar Vortex soon. Well, now you’ve heard it. 🙂

That will be introduced by a system bringing accumulating snow Monday night and Tuesday and may have another sneaky snow maker right after that:

Snow in arctic air is awesome cause you can get ratios of 30 or 40 to 1.

Historic temps are possible across much of the country for the middle and end of next week. Look at the lows coming off the GFS:

Wind chills would be much, much lower. Ouch!

Make it a great Friday and take care.

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A little winter starts the day

Good Thursday, folks. Our day is off and running with slick spots causing a few travel troubles across central and eastern Kentucky. From there, we track frigid temps in here for Friday and more winter weather ahead.

Our early day band of snow works out of eastern Kentucky after leaving behind some slushy accumulations. Combine that with temps in the 20s and you have the recipe for slick travel conditions. Once that band moves away, a few flurries or snow showers will be noted through noon.

Here are your tracking tools:

Hamburg Area from WKYT Studio
Lexington

I-75 @ Newtown Pike
Lexington

I-75 MP 127
Georgetown

I-64 at KY-801
Near Morehead

I-64 MP 97
Winchester
I-64 WB @ MP 97

Mountain Parkway near Slade

Pine Mountain

Florence

No image available.

Covington

No image available.

No image available.

Another round of light snow and snow showers will sweep in here Thursday evening as an arctic front slides through. That will unleash bitterly cold air by Friday morning. Readings may hit the single digits in a few spots. Wind chills may go below zero:

Several systems target the region from the northwest this weekend through next week. We’re likely to put some snow on the ground again at some point Saturday into Sunday as we get a reinforcing shot of arctic air.

The system coming behind that late Monday into Tuesday is one that can develop into something much bigger. It’s being pushed by brutally cold air diving into the country. Something similar to that may show up a few days later.

Say hello to the Polar Vortex entering the country next week:

Have a good one and take care.

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Winter crashes back in tonight

Good Wednesday to one and all. Old Man Winter never really left, but he’s about to flex some more muscle out there today. This is looking like a scaled down version of what we went through this pass weekend.

Here’s a breakdown:

  • Rain moves in from west to east early today. This is along and ahead of our cold front moving in.
  • Temps ahead of this front will reach the 50s across central and eastern Kentucky. Temps behind this crash through the 30s and into the 20s. That crash happens very quickly.
  • A period of mix to snow is likely as the cold hooks up with the back edge of the precipitation shield. With a wave of low pressure developing along this, the best snow potential is across the eastern half of the state.
  • Light accumulations are a good bet, with some pockets of higher totals showing up. This will be pretty slushy.
  • As temps drop, expect another flash freeze into the wee hours of Thursday morning. Delays and cancellations are very possible.

The best chance to put a few inches of snow down is across the eastern half of the state:

I will have your tracking tools in a bit.

Behind that, an arctic front arrives with snow showers Thursday evening into Thursday night. Lows may reach the single digits Friday morning with wind chills going below zero at times.

The pattern is loaded with systems this weekend into next week. Here’s the GFS with those:

 

I’ve talked about how a couple of these systems can blow up into something much bigger. You can see that on the GFS and on the European Model. Here’s the Monday night and Tuesday system:

Bitterly cold temps show up on the model behind that:

A few days later, we do it all over again:

I leave you with your mid-week tracking tools:

Hamburg Area from WKYT Studio
Lexington

I-75 @ Newtown Pike
Lexington

I-75 MP 127
Georgetown

I-64 at KY-801
Near Morehead

I-64 MP 97
Winchester
I-64 WB @ MP 97

Mountain Parkway @ MP 36
Near Pine Ridge

Mountain Parkway near Slade

Pine Mountain

Florence

No image available.

Covington

No image available.

No image available.

Louisville

No image available.

No image available.

No image available.

E-town

No image available.

I-65 MP 36
Near Bowling Green
I-65 MP 36

I-65 @ 234
Near Bowling Green
I-65 @ 234

Natcher Parkway MP 5
Near Bowling Green
Natcher Parkway @ MP 5

US 41A Gate 5 Fort Campbell Entrance
Fort Campbell
US 41A @ Gate 5

Paducah


I-24 @ US 60 MP 4


I-24 MP 7 @ US62

Make it a great day and take care.

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