Rounds of strong storms today

Good Thursday to one and all. Rounds of boomers are rolling across the region for the next few days and some of the storms may be strong or severe. This is taking us up to Kentucky Derby Day which is looking a little soggy as of now.

Today’s storms will be more prominent in the afternoon and evening and some could be severe. Here’s the Severe Weather Outlook from the Storm Prediction Center:

Damaging winds and large hail are the primary players with any severe storm going up. Heavy rainfall may cause quick rises on area creeks and streams, too. It’s not going to be constant rain today and temps can reach 80 outside of the storms.

Here are your tracking tools for the day:

Current watches
Current Watches

Possible watch areas
Current MDs

Additional rounds of showers and storms will be with us into Kentucky Oaks Day Friday. Once again, it’s not going to be all day rains and some strong storms could fire up.

Derby Day is taking on more of a wet look as low pressure works in from the southwest. Many of the models are hinting at more of a widespread rain event. Here’s how the European Model sees it:

Temps may not get out of the low and middle 60s for some.

Rainfall numbers through Saturday night are up there with a general 1″-2″ of rain showing up, with locally higher amounts:

After a break in the storms for Sunday into parts of Monday, the stormy pattern looks to kick back in.

Make it a great day and take care.

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Stormy weather takes us toward Derby Weekend

Good Wednesday to one and all. Our temps are feeling more like June than the first day of May. This summer feel is about to turn into a stormy setup as we roll into the long Kentucky Derby Weekend.

Highs today are in the 80s for most of central and eastern Kentucky. The potential is there for a few thunderstorms to go up, especially in the north and west. That’s where the Storm Prediction Center has a low end risk for severe storms:

Here are your radars to track anything that fires up today:

 

That threat shifts farther east on Thursday and should encompass much of the state…

A few thoughts:

  • The storms come at us in waves and clusters with several hours of breaks in between
  • Strong to severe storms may develop. Damaging winds, hail and isolated tornadoes are possible.
  • Humidity levels are very high, so some decent rain totals will be possible. Check out some of the numbers through Saturday:

After a break in the action on Sunday, the pattern next week continues to look very active in terms of severe weather.

Have a great day and take care.

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Storm chances for Derby Weekend

Good Tuesday, everyone. We are dealing with a very summer-like pattern for the next few days, but thunderstorms look to increase as the week wears on. The threat for thunderstorms looks to hold tough through Kentucky Derby Weekend.

Highs today are into the 80-85 degree range with a mix of sun and clouds. Isolated showers and storms are possible, especially in the north and west. Here’s regional radar to track the action:

Wednesday looks even warmer with the potential for mid to upper 80s in some spots for parts of the region. That only happens with enough sunshine, but it’s certainly a possibility. Winds are going to crank during this time and a few late day showers and storms are possible. This is just ahead of a big severe weather outbreak to our west, but a few strong storms may try to sneak into western Kentucky. Here’s the Wednesday Severe Weather Outlook from the SPC:

Showers and thunderstorms will increase on Thursday and a few could be on the strong side. This begins a stormy period that goes through Oaks Day and into Derby Day:

The models are spitting out some decent totals during this time. The European Model has some 2″+ amounts  through Saturday:

The longer range European seasonal model that goes through the middle of June continues with a wet look for much of the country. Check out how much real estate is above normal:

Have a great day and take care.

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Derby Week starts on a warm note

Good Monday and welcome to Kentucky Derby Week! It’s a magical time of year for those of us in the Bluegrass state and the weather takes on a little added importance. The big week is kicking off with a taste of summer temps, but it may end with spring storms on the increase.

Let us begin with our Monday and roll forward. Highs are back into the middle and upper 70s as southwesterly winds kick in. With a warm front pressing in, there’s the chance for a shower or thunderstorm to go up. Here are your radars to track anything that goes up:

Temps for Tuesday and Wednesday will feel more like Mid-Summer than the transition days from April into May:

I can’t rule out a few spots sneaking into the middle and upper 80s if they can get enough sunshine.

A scattered shower or thunderstorm will be possible with the best chance coming Wednesday. That kicks off a rather stormy look to the pattern for Thursday into Kentucky Oaks Day Friday. I mentioned the potential for the system producing the storms to slow down and some of the models are hinting at this. The European Model keeps a storm chance going into Derby Day:

I wouldn’t be surprised to see this setup carry us into next week as we see one heck of a clash of air masses setting up across the country. Look at the temperature departure forecast for the next 10 days:

Make it a good one and take care.

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Changes for Derby Week

Good Sunday to one and all. We are rolling into the closing days of April and we have some big temperature changes taking place. Our cooler than normal setup is about to flip to one that feels more like summer for a few days into Kentucky Derby Week. That summer feel does not include Derby Weekend.

As always, let’s start with today and roll forward. Highs are only in the upper 50s and low 60s with skies becoming partly sunny. The day may start with a shower or two, especially in the east:

Monday brings a big temperature turnaround as reading soar deep into the 70s. Winds become southwesterly and that could help fire up a few showers and thunderstorms.

Temps by Tuesday and Wednesday will have a definite summer feel and look to them:

A storm or two is possible during this time, especially on Wednesday. Boomers will increase as slow-moving system rolls our way. The models are struggling on when this system gets out of town, with the GFS keeping it going through Kentucky Oaks Day:

As of now, the trend is for a dry and seasonally cool Kentucky Derby Day. That said, we need to watch that system to make sure it isn’t slower than the models are indicating. Also, that’s an interesting looking disturbance heading into the Bahamas for this time of year.

Have a great day and take care.

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Tracking a weak cold front across Kentucky

Good Saturday and welcome to the final weekend of April.  We are tracking a weak front across the state and it’s bringing a few showers and storms with it. This is part of a northwesterly flow, bringing much cooler than normal temps our way through Sunday.

Our Saturday starts with temps in upper 30s and low 40s. Winds will be gusty through the day as clouds thicken ahead of our front. A few late day showers and storms will be possible, but this action looks fairly scattered:

Windy and cool weather settles in for Sunday as highs struggle to get to the 60 degree mark. There could still be a leftover shower or two to start.

Temps surge back into the mid and upper 70s on Monday with a storm or two ramping up. The warmest day next week may come on Tuesday as temps can reach into the 80s:

Showers and thunderstorms really begin to increase by Wednesday and Thursday of next week as temps stay very warm. The latest trend on the models is to sweep much of the showers and storms to our east with cooler temps for Oaks Day and Derby Day:

That would be a very nice scenario, but it would also be a fairly cool scenario. Watch how we go from well above normal to well below normal:

Have a great Saturday and take care.

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Cooler air moves in for the weekend

Good Friday, folks. Rain is beginning to push out of the region, with cooler air taking control through the final weekend of April. As we head into the first week of May, things turn much warmer with some storms lurking.

Let’s start with today. Morning rain will fade as the day wears on and partly sunny skies return. There is still a slight chance for a late day shower or storm in the east:

Temps will be in the 60s for afternoon highs.

Clear skies tonight will set the stage for a few upper 30s to show up across central and eastern Kentucky. The rest of our Saturday is a windy one with a mix of sun and clouds as a cold front drops in from the northwest. That may touch off a shower or storm in the afternoon and evening:

This is a fairly cool weekend as temps may struggle to get much past 60 on Sunday.

The setup for Kentucky Derby week is a warm one that can turn stormy:

Here’s what the European Model is looking like for Oaks Day and Derby Day:

Obviously, those will change from day to day, but the overall pattern has a stormy look to it.

Make it a good one and take care.

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Showers and storms increase

Good Thursday, folks. Rounds of showers and storms are on the increase today as low pressure works closer to the bluegrass state. This kicks off another busy setup as we get ready to close out the month of April.

Today is NOT going to be a washout and it’s NOT going to rain all the time. As a matter of fact, you will get many dry hours, but rounds of showers and storms will be on the increase. Any storm that goes up can produce some heavy rainfall numbers.

Here are your tracking toys for the day:

 

Rainy weather is likely across the central and east early Friday, but the action slows down quickly during the afternoon. Cooler winds will then blow through the weekend as another system dives in from the northwest. That may bring a few gusty showers or isolated storms in here late Saturday and Saturday night:

Sunday is a seasonally cool day that may send Sunday night temps into the upper 30s in a few spots.

Warm air quickly takes over next week as readings go back to being above normal. This will also give us a daily shot at a few thunderstorms and we may see that take us through Kentucky Derby Weekend.

The overall setup for the next few weeks still looks wetter than normal for us and for much of the country:

Have a terrific Thursday and take care.

 

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Tracking rounds of showers and storms

Good Wednesday, everyone. Rounds of showers and thunderstorms are on the weather menu for the next few days. This continues to be part of our wetter than normal pattern that’s been with us for the past several years.

Rounds of showers and thunderstorms sweep across the region today, increasing during the late day hours. Heavy rain and a few strong storms will be possible. Here are your wet weather trackers for the day:

 

The wet weather keeps on keeping on through Thursday and into early Friday. Rainfall numbers during this time can easily top 2″ in several areas:

As we head into the weekend, we turn our attention to a system diving in from the northwest. This will bring a renewed threat for showers and strong storms later Saturday, with a shot of cooler air behind it for Sunday and Monday:

Could a kiss of frost follow that by Monday morning? We shall see.

A few days ago, the Ensembles were all showing a drier pattern over the next two weeks, but we said to believe it when you see it. Well, the Ensembles keep singing a different tune and are now back to showing above normal precipitation for the next few weeks:

Have a wonderful Wednesday and take care.

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A few boomers back in the bluegrass

Good Tuesday, folks. We have another warm day on tap, but a few showers and thunderstorms are joining in on the springtime fun. This action is ahead of a weak front dropping in from the northwest through early Wednesday. After that, scattered boomers look to continue.

Let’s begin with today’s weather and roll forward. Highs are back into the upper 70s for many, with a few 80 degree high temps possible. Southwest winds increase as a broken line of showers and storms enters from the northwest. The best chance for stormy action comes late this afternoon into the evening.

Here are your tracking tools to follow along:

 

Showers and thunderstorms look to become more widespread Wednesday and Thursday as a southern system throws moisture back to the north:

Rainfall totals from the models continue to climb through the rest of the week:

Have a great day and take care.

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