Local flash flood threat the next few days

Good Wednesday, folks. It’s a very busy pattern as what’s left of Alberto continues to work across Kentucky and the Ohio Valley. Rounds of showers and thunderstorms continue to move across the area for the next few days, leading to the potential for flash flooding.

As the core of Alberto works northward into Indiana, feeder bands of showers and storms will develop across much of the state this afternoon and evening. The main issue to watch for is training of cells that can lead to local high water issues developing.

A few of the storms may also be strong or severe. Here’s the latest outlook from the Storm Prediction Center:

As that system continues to pull away on Thursday, deep tropical moisture remains as another system works in from west to east late in the day. That may fuel additional strong to severe storms through Thursday night. Here’s the Thursday Severe Weather Outlook from the Storm Prediction Center:

Torrential rains from the thunderstorms may cause additional high water issues into Friday. Unfortunately, another system may bring more storms for the weekend:

This is not a setup for all day rains, but when the storms do go up, they can put down a tremendous amount of rain in a short amount of time. Let’s be mindful of the high water through with each storm that goes up.

Outside of the thunderstorm action, it’s a steam bath with temps deep into the 80s on occasion.

Here are your tracking toys for the day:

 

Current watches
Current Watches

Possible watch areas
Current MDs

Have a great Wednesday and take care.

Posted in Uncategorized | Comments

Alberto heads toward Kentucky

Good Tuesday to one and all. What’s left of Alberto is about to work into the bluegrass state, bringing the potential for a few strong storms and heavy rains. This will be the third straight year with tropical system moving into Kentucky, and that’s pretty amazing.

Let’s get caught up on where Alberto is and the latest forecast track from the National Hurricane Center:

cone graphic

With the track of Alberto moving from south to north across the western half of Kentucky, we will need to watch areas of central and eastern Kentucky for a few strong or severe storms. Here’s the area the Storm Prediction Center has outlooked for possible severe storms:

Any storm that goes up can also put down a lot of rain in a short amount of time. Western Kentucky has the greatest flash flood risk in the near term, as they will be closer to the track of the low. By Wednesday and Thursday, showers and storms may concentrate more across central and eastern Kentucky. I’m concerned about the cloudburst potential leading to a significant flash flood somewhere in our region.

A few storms will be noted on Friday, with the potential for rounds of storms taking control again over the weekend as a system moves in from the west and northwest:

This could very well lead to another flash flood threat over the weekend.

I have you all set to track the action from Alberto:

Current watches
Current Watches

Possible watch areas
Current MDs

Make it a good one and take care.

Posted in Uncategorized | Comments

Alberto on the way to Kentucky

Good Monday to one and all. On the day we honor those who have given the ultimate sacrifice for our country, we are tracking scattered storms and a Tropical Storm. Alberto is down in the Gulf of Mexico, but will impact our weather later Tuesday and Wednesday.

Let’s begin with the weather we have out there today. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will flare up, bringing locally heavy rains that can cause high water issues for some. Outside the storms, temps are deep into the steamy 80s.

Here are your Memorial Day tracking tools:

Alberto continues to spin toward the Florida Panhandle and is strengthening as it gets closer to making landfall:

What’s left of Alberto will then move toward Kentucky later Tuesday into Wednesday, bringing the potential for heavy rain and a few severe storms. Here’s the latest 3 day forecast from the National Hurricane Center:

cone graphic

Here’s are the areas I’m watching for the heaviest rain and possible flooding:

To the right of the track of Alberto, we will need to watch for strong to severe storms developing. Here’s the area I’m highlighting for that potential:

Once Alberto goes by, we will watch additional showers and storms targeting our part of the world. We may even see a slow-moving cut off system working right on top of us into early June. That could become a heavy rain maker, keeping temps quite a bit cooler than we have seen for May.

Have a great Memorial Day and take care.

Posted in Uncategorized | Comments

Alberto to impact our weather in the week ahead

Good Sunday, everyone. Steamy temps and scattered storms continue to dominate our Memorial Day weekend weather. As we track this action, we also focus on Alberto down in the Gulf of Mexico. That system is likely to impact our weather by Wednesday.

In the short-term, scattered showers and storms continue to press across the state today. Any storm that’s out there may contain heavy rains and contain a lot of lightning. Watch for local high water issues, especially in the south and east. Highs will be in the 80s.

Here are the day’s tracking tools:

Your Memorial Day weather looks a lot like today. Scattered storms and steamy temps continue to rule the forecast.

Alberto continues as a Tropical Storm down in the Gulf of Mexico as it heads toward the central Gulf Coast states. The 5 day forecast track continues to bring this into Kentucky as a Tropical Depression:

cone graphic

The location of the heaviest rain depends on the exact track of what’s left of Alberto. We will also need to watch for some strong storms to develop to the right of that track.

The models are still very consistent in bringing what’s left of the system right on top of Kentucky. They also dive a second system in right behind it with more showers and storms:

GFS

Canadian

The latest Hurricane Models are tightly clustered on a track across Kentucky:

Have a great Sunday and take care.

Posted in Uncategorized | Comments

Tracking storms and Tropical Storm Alberto

Good Saturday to one and all. The long Memorial Day Weekend is off and running with an increase in showers and storms. The scattered boomers will be around for much of the weekend, but it’s not an all weekend rain.

Today’s rains will be locally heavy at times and could cause local high water issues. Outside of the storms, temps hit the low and middle 80s for many. The tropical humidity will make it feel much warmer.

Sunday’s weather looks a lot like today, but we may see less storms around for Memorial Day. With less storms, temps can surge into the mid and upper 80s. Keep in mind, those cookouts will be a steam bath with all the tropical humidity.

Did someone say tropics? Tropical Storm Alberto is working into the Gulf of Mexico and will target the central Gulf by Memorial Day. Here’s the latest from the National Hurricane Center:

cone graphic

I now think there is a chance this becomes a hurricane before coming ashore.

If you go back and read my posts from early May, I pointed out the increased activity around Florida was likely a signal on where early season tropical development would happen. Hello, Alberto!

Each of the past 2 years, the remnant low from a tropical system moved directly across Kentucky. Can we make it 3 in a row with Tropical Storm Alberto? That’s a real possibility as we head into the first half of next week.

The European Model continues to show the leftovers of Alberto moving right on top of us by Wednesday:

The model then follows that up with another system diving in from the west, bringing additional showers and storms:

Those two together bring a lot of rain to the region. Check out the European Model rain totals through next week:

The GFS is now very similar looking with Alberto and the system following it:

The Canadian has been ahead of all the other models with the track of Alberto and continues to bring it right on top of Kentucky:

Here are your tracking toys for the day:

Have a great Saturday and take care.

Posted in Uncategorized | Comments

Tropical moisture means storms for the big weekend

Good Friday, everyone. We are kicking off the long Memorial Day Weekend with scattered showers on the increase. The boomers will slowly increase in the coming days, but this does not look like a complete washout of a weekend. You will find some dry times to get those cookouts in. 🙂

Today’s scattered storms go up during the afternoon and evening hours as tropical humidity slowly increases. The steamy air continues this weekend, leading to rounds of showers and storms. Highs are generally in the steamy 80s, but the afternoon storms will steal the show. Watch for tropical downpours that can lead to local high water issues.

The forecast hasn’t changes much over the past few days:

Our first tropical system of the season is developing in the Gulf of Mexico. This will become Alberto as it heads toward the central Gulf Coast:

That system will head toward the central Gulf coast this weekend, with many models ramping it up right before coming ashore:

From there, the European Model brings the remnants right on top of Kentucky by Wednesday:

The Canadian Model has been saying this for days, and continues to do so:

The GFS continues to play a major game of catch up to the other models, but is slowly coming around to a similar idea:

If the remnants do indeed make their way into Kentucky, that would obviously up the ante on the flooding potential. It would also mark the third consecutive year with the remnant low from a tropical system moving into the bluegrass state. That would be a pretty amazing accomplishment!

I have you all set to track today’s shower and storm action:

Make it a fantastic Friday and take care.

Posted in Uncategorized | Comments

Boomers for the big weekend ahead

Good Thursday, everyone. We have a really, really nice day going on out there today, but bigger chances are lurking for the big weekend ahead of us. Memorial Day weekend is ahead of us, but the increasing threat for cookout crashing storms may steal the holiday show.

Let’s begin with today and roll ahead. Highs will top out in the upper 70s to low 80s for much of the region, with a mainly dry sky. I can’t rule out isolated storms going up across the southeast during the afternoon and evening:

As far as your cookout plans for Memorial Day weekend, a lot hinges upon what develops in the Gulf, and where it ultimately winds up. The National Hurricane Center continues to monitor the setup…

Moisture from the Gulf will get drawn northward into Kentucky, leading to scattered showers and storms going up on Saturday. A weak front settles in and slows down over the weekend, allowing for a nice conveyor belt of moisture to set up. That shows up on the NAM through Saturday night:

Here’s a look at the rest of the forecast through Memorial Day:

Locally heavy rains will be likely from any storm that goes up, but it’s not going to rain all the time.

Have a terrific Thursday and take care.

Posted in Uncategorized | Comments

All eyes on storms for Memorial Day Weekend

Good Wednesday to one and all. As a cold front works to our east today, it’s bringing a much better brand of air to our region. This means a few days of nice weather, but that won’t hang around into the big holiday weekend ahead of us. Rounds of showers and storms look to return.

Highs today will generally range from the upper 70s to low 80s in most areas. The day may start with a shower or storm in the east, but skies become partly sunny:

Lows by Thursday morning drop into the 50s for the first time in a long, long time. The rest of the day looks really good with temps back into the upper 70s and low 80s with a mix of sun and clouds.

Memorial Day Weekend will kick off with isolated showers and storms developing on Friday, with highs in the 80s. From there, things only look to go downhill.

The unofficial kickoff to summer is Memorial Day weekend and everyone is hoping for nice weather. Pools open, backyards fill with the smell of burgers and dogs on the grill, and lakes are generally packed. None of that may be true this weekend as our pattern looks very active.

For a while, I’ve talked about the potential for a tropical system in the Gulf. The National Hurricane Center is highlighting this region for potential development over the next few days:

As that system works across the Gulf, we will be dealing with a front slowing down across the Ohio valley, setting up a pipeline of tropical moisture from the Gulf into Kentucky. That would lead to rounds of showers and storms starting as early as Friday and continuing into the weekend. What happens with the Gulf system? That may get drawn northward and impact our weather:

With or without the actual remnant low moving over us, plenty of tropical moisture will be around to bring rounds of showers and storms.

Have a great Wednesday and take care.

Posted in Uncategorized | Comments

A few storms for Election Day

Good Tuesday, everyone. It’s Election Day in the Commonwealth with storms and steamy temps on the weather ballot. The two are running neck and neck entering today, with storms likely coming away with a small victory.

Those scattered storms may, just like the past week, be locally strong or severe. Here’s the updated Severe Weather Outlook from the Storm Prediction Center:

Heavy rains may also cause a few high water issues to develop from time to time. That said, it’s not going to rain all day.

A cold front pushes east of us on Wednesday, allowing for a much better brand of air to slide in here for a couple days. Temps and humidity levels both come way down through Thursday, so let’s soak that up.

Another system dives in here by the weekend, bringing the potential for more showers and thunderstorms. At the same time, a tropical system is trying to develop in the Gulf of Mexico.

Another system approaches the region from the northwest by the Memorial Day weekend. That will bring an increase in showers and storms, as we watch the Gulf of Mexico. That’s where something tropical is likely to develop and it may directly or indirectly influence our weather.

Watch how the models are very stormy and unsettled all the way through next week:

Canadian

GFS

Our incredibly soggy 2018 shows no signs of letting up!

Here are your Election Day tracking toys:

Current watches
Current Watches

Possible watch areas
Current MDs

Happy Election Day and take care.

Posted in Uncategorized | Comments

More storms start the week

Good Monday, folks. Stop me if you’ve heard this one before… Rounds of showers and storms are pushing across the region. A few of these storms my be a little on the strong side. As we track the action today, we are also looking ahead toward the long Memorial Day weekend that’s ahead of us.

As always, we start with what’s going on out there today. Highs will generally be in the upper 70s and low 80s with very muggy air in place. That muggy air will help fuel the fire for showers and storms to go up. Locally heavy rains will be the main player, bringing a renewed high water threat.

Some of the storms may also produce small hail and gusty winds. Here’s the current Severe Weather Outlook from the Storm Prediction Center:

Additional showers and storms will be around on Tuesday, with locally heavy rains the main threat. Local high water issues ma be noted at anytime today through Tuesday.

We may actually catch a break in the storms by the middle of the week.

The storm threat increases again as we head into Memorial Day weekend. This is also when something tropical may get going down in the gulf of Mexico. Whatever happens with that system could impact our weather for the big weekend and into next week.

The Canadian Model has a developing storm that heads toward the central Gulf Coast states, then actually takes a ride into Kentucky. It does so by swinging a deepening trough into our region, picking up whatever is down there:

The European Model has the tropical system missing the trough, leaving the system to meander around for days:

The Icon Model looks to be taking a similar route:

I leave you with your Monday storm trackers:

Current watches
Current Watches

Possible watch areas
Current MDs

Have a great day and take care.

Posted in Uncategorized | Comments