Brutally cold temps roll on

Good Wednesday, folks. We have another arctic cold front barreling across Kentucky later in the day, bringing the potential for some snow showers and reinforcing our bitterly cold air mass.

Temps Wednesday morning are in the single digits in many areas, with highs hitting the 20s this afternoon. Gusty winds will make it feel much colder than that.

The arctic front is helping funnel cold air into a major winter storm/blizzard developing off the southeast coast. This will produce snow from Florida — Florida — to Maine:

As expected, we are now finding the computer models starting to see the snow showers moving in  late today into Thursday. Here are the areas seeing the best chance for snow showers:

That strong northwesterly flow will combine with arctic cold temps to squeeze out lots of snow showers and flurries. Local accumulations will be possible during this time

Here’s regional radar to track whatever snow showers develop:

 

There could be another snow shower or flurry maker moving in on Friday.

Air temps hit the single digits again by Thursday morning, with zero or below possible by Friday and Saturday mornings. Winds are going to be gusty during this time, creating dangerous wind chills:

What you see for Friday, is what you’re gonna see on Saturday. The dangerous wind chills are going to be more widespread than what we had this morning. Take precautions now.

The system Sunday into Monday continues to set off alarm bells in my head for the potential for icy conditions. The models are slowly coming in colder, but just cannot fully understand that low-level arctic cold does not get pushed out without a strong system.

Still, the GFS is trending toward more winter weather:

Even if temps do go above freezing, with some rain falling, the ground is frozen and road temps will be crazy cold. I have seen many, many instances of ice developing in this type of a setup.

Another shot of bitter cold comes in behind that, with some snow showers for Tuesday and Wednesday. Another winter weather maker should follow that up a few days later.

Make it a great day and take care.

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Bitterly cold temps continue

Good Tuesday, everyone. We are in the middle of one of the colder periods of weather you will ever find across the Bluegrass State. It’s not the coldest in terms of overall temperatures, but it’s among the coldest in terms of longevity.

Our Tuesday is starting out with temps ranging from minus-5 to 5 degrees, and wind chill readings much colder than that. Our afternoon temps will return to the mid- and upper teens, with single-digit wind chills.

Wednesday finds another arctic front dropping in from the northwest, with clouds on the increase. Wednesday is the “warmest” day of the week, with temps in the upper single digits and low teens to start. Highs range from the low 20s north to near 30 south.

This is ahead of a strong upper level trough digging in, helping develop a winter storm across the southeast coast:

That storm becomes a monster and rides the East Coast, pulling another bitterly cold air mass into our region. Northwesterly winds will then bring snow showers and squalls for Wednesday night and Thursday. Just as with this past weekend’s snows, I’m riding the Canadian model:

 

A disturbance behind that will then dive in, potentially bringing a swath of light snow by Friday.

Temps from Thursday through the weekend can be similar to what we are seeing out there early this week. The European model has similar lows to Tuesday morning:

Once again, we find brutal wind chills showing up:

A sloppy system shows up late Sunday into Monday and is likely to keep getting colder on the models. Whatever it is will then unleash another round of bitterly cold air. Look at the lows on the European model for the middle of next week:

Wind chills at the same time:

This is one of the all-time great cold weather patterns you will ever see around this part of the world.

Have a great day and take care.

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A bitterly cold start to 2018

Happy New Year, everyone.  2018 is off on and running on a bitterly cold start. It’s a pattern that will carry us through the first week of the new year, at least. It’s also one trying to make a run at the history books.

A Wind Chill Advisory is out for much of the region into early Tuesday. Here’s a breakdown of what to expect:

  • Temps on this New Year’s Moring range from 0 to -5 in the far north, to 0 to 8 for the rest of the state. Wind chills will be from 0 to -15.
  • Tuesday morning looks to be the coldest of the bunch. Lows hit zero in many areas and may reach as low as -10 in the north. Wind chill temps will be from -5 to -15.
  • This is a dangerously cold air mass, so take any necessary precautions to get ready for it.

A major east coast winter storm is likely by the middle of the week, sending more bitterly cold air into our region. That cold can easily rival what we are seeing over the next few days.

The folks at the NWS in Louisville put together a graphic showing just how historic this cold is:

This cold is historic, folks.

A couple of systems may try to dive in here from the northwest, bringing snow chances as early as Thursday:

The European model as another system by next weekend:

You’re already seeing the models changing next weekend, showing just how difficult it is to push such a dense arctic air mass out.

While the extreme cold does start to relax next weekend and early next week, this continues to be a VERY cold pattern across our region. The GFS Ensembles show this as far as they can see into the middle of the month:

Once the extreme cold relaxes, we will have a better chance of getting southern systems into the mix for our region.

Happy New Year and take care.

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Dangerously cold temps move in

Good Sunday and Happy New Year’s Eve. We have a brutally cold final day of 2017 and this is going to carry over into the first full week of 2018. This prolonged period of cold will be dangerous, so take all precautions now to avoid outside exposure.

As the cold continues to settle in today, we have another streak of light snow working across the northern half of the state. That will be followed by some northwesterly flow snow showers and flurries this evening.

Track away:

Hamburg Area from WKYT Studio
Lexington

Fifth Third Pavilion Live Cam
Downtown Lexington

I-75 @ Iron Works Pike
Lexington

I-275 approaching KY 20/Airport
Near Covington
I-275 East of KY 20/Airport Exit

I-71/I-75 at Buttermilk Pike
Near Covington
I-71/I-75 @ Buttermilk Pike

I-75 MP 127
Georgetown

I-64 at KY-801
Near Morehead

US 60 @ US 127
Frankfort
US60 @ US127

Highs today are generally in the teens with wind chills near zero. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY kicks in tonight and goes through Tuesday for much of the state. Here’s a breakdown:

  • Monday morning will see temps from 0 to -5 in the north and 0 to 5 above for much of the rest of the state. Wind chills will be solidly below zero.
  • Tuesday will be the coldest with readings in the far north possibly getting as low as -10. The rest of the state should go from -5 to +5. Wind chills range from -5 to -15 at times.
  • This is dangerous stuff and you should take all weatherproofing precautions now.

 

I’m still curios to see what happens along the east coast by the middle and end of the week. That’s when we see a very sharp trough dig into the eastern half of the country, likely spinning up an east coast storm. While what should be well to our east, don’t sleep on a northwesterly flow producing snow showers behind it, or another system diving in from the northwest.

Bitterly cold temps will continue with lows reaching zero or a little below… Again.

A system will impact our weather next weekend as the extreme cold tries to relax for a bit, but watch how the GFS Ensembles keep trending colder for the second week of the year:

Have a safe and Happy New Year.

Take care.

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Bitterly cold temps to end the year

Good Saturday to one and all. Northern Kentucky got in on a light snowfall last night, and we have a few more flakes to fly out there today. But, the big storm continues to be the bitterly cold temps blowing back into the bluegrass state.

Before we talk bitter, let’s talk about some flakes. A few areas of light snow and flurries will work across our skyline today, potentially bringing some coatings for some. With a frozen ground, it won’t take much to create a slick spot of two:

Hamburg Area from WKYT Studio
Lexington

Fifth Third Pavilion Live Cam
Downtown Lexington

I-75 @ Iron Works Pike
Lexington

I-275 approaching KY 20/Airport
Near Covington
I-275 East of KY 20/Airport Exit

I-71/I-75 at Buttermilk Pike
Near Covington
I-71/I-75 @ Buttermilk Pike

I-75 MP 127
Georgetown

I-64 at KY-801
Near Morehead

US 60 @ US 127
Frankfort
US60 @ US127

This will also be followed by another streak of light snow and flurries on Sunday. Some very light accumulations are possible from these small streaks.

Bitterly cold air will continue to press in here late Saturday into the last day of the year. Temps by New Year’s Morning will reach the single digits, with a zero or two showing up.

Monday night is likely to be the coldest, with the potential for widespread zero or below numbers. The GFS is slowly catching on to how cold it can get:

Wind chills may reach double digits below zero at times.

Speaking of the cold, it just won’t stop coming at us:

Light snow chances will try to return by later in the week into next weekend. That said, the cold is king of the weather world.

Have a great day and take care.

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Another arctic front arrives this holiday weekend

Good Friday, everyone. We are tracking light snow and another bitterly cold air mass rolling toward the Bluegrass State. This arrives just in time for the big New Year’s holiday weekend.

The light snow will affect only parts of our region, with the north and northeast having the greatest risk of accumulating snow. This starts late today and rolls into early Saturday. Here’s a look at how much may fall:

Any kind of south trend of just a few miles would greatly change that map. I continue to like what the Canadian Model is cooking with this system. Here’s the short range version of that model:

Notice how the GFS has a MUCH sharper cutoff on the southern edge of the show:

Bitterly cold temps come in behind that system, giving us temps that can make a run at zero by the first two days of the new year. Wind chills go well below zero at times.

The setup coming in after that continues to look absolutely amazing on the European Model. Look at the polar vortex diving in here:

The surface map on that shows a monster east coast winter storm, but each run is coming farther west with it:

Another system dives in here right behind it with a more potent trough diving southward a few days later:

That too is a heck of a look at the end of the European Model run:

I have you all set to track today’s light snow across the northern half of the state:

Hamburg Area from WKYT Studio
Lexington

Fifth Third Pavilion Live Cam
Downtown Lexington

I-75 @ Iron Works Pike
Lexington

I-275 approaching KY 20/Airport
Near Covington
I-275 East of KY 20/Airport Exit

I-71/I-75 at Buttermilk Pike
Near Covington
I-71/I-75 @ Buttermilk Pike

I-75 MP 127
Georgetown

I-64 at KY-801
Near Morehead

US 60 @ US 127
Frankfort
US60 @ US127

Make it a great day and take care.

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All eyes on New Year’s Weekend

Good Thursday to one and all. Bitterly cold temps are back to start the day, but things are looking even colder as we roll into the start of 2018. Our New Year’s weekend will also feature some snow chances showing up.

Let’s begin with today and roll forward. Single digit temps with below zero wind chills are with us to start your Thursday. Highs hit the 20s this afternoon with some clouds rolling in. There’s even a chance for a few flurries to show up this evening.

We are seeing the European Model trending more toward the GFS with the evolution of the weekend setup. Here it is for late Friday into Saturday:

It then tries to follow that up with our southern system by New Year’s Eve…

Just yesterday, that system didn’t really exist on the Euro.

The new GFS is in and ups the ante for snows from both systems. Here’s the late Friday into Saturday setup…

The New Year’s Eve system had been trending way south, but is just coming back by a smidge:

That’s still pretty disjointed, but it’s something to watch for. Given the arctic temps in place, any moisture would be maximized.

Bitterly cold air comes in and lasts through next week. There’s also a sharp dip in the jet stream showing by the middle of the week…

The sharper the trough, the better the chance of a bigger storm in the east.

Have a great Thursday and take care.

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Bitterly cold weather ahead

Good Wednesday to one and all. Arctic air has arrived in the Bluegrass State, with the potential for bitter cold showing up this weekend and much of next week. This might be the coldest stretch of weather we’ve had since the winter of 2013-14.

Wednesday starts with temps in the single digits across the north, with low and middle teens elsewhere. Wind chill numbers can drop below zero at times to start the day. The afternoon won’t warm too much, with highs hitting the upper teens and low 20s in many areas. Gusty winds make it feel much colder.

Thursday’s forecast looks a lot like Wednesday’s.

From there, the forecast gets a lot colder, but how we get there is the question. Snow is likely to fall this weekend, but I’m still not ready to commit to how it comes at us, or how much might fall.

The European model continues to say we get an arctic front with a wave of low pressure along it Friday night and Saturday:

That blows up into a major storm across the northeast.

The GFS continues to show a different setup, and it starts with a system before that one. The GFS has a little better system showing up Thursday night and early Friday:

The model then is much weaker with the system diving in Friday night and Saturday, producing a swath of light snow across our region:

It still develops another system working in from the southwest for New Year’s Eve and Day:

That setup could be a healthy snow maker for us.

Here’s my take on it all:

  • Bitterly cold temps are very likely through next week. There is an increased threat of temps to go below zero on at least one occasion.
  • This will probably become the longest period of bitter cold we’ve had since 2013-14.
  • Wind chills have a chance to get into the danger category at some point.
  • It’s likely we will put some snow on the ground this weekend. It’s too early to tell how much we can get. That all depends on whether the southern stream gets involved.

Make it a great Wednesday and take care.

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Light snow and flurries ahead

Good Tuesday to one and all. Christmas is now in our rear view mirror, so it’s time to focus on the remaining days of 2017. The overall pattern looks frigid, with the snow chances showing up.

The first chance comes in later today and into Wednesday. Streaks of light snow and flurries show up from west to east, potentially putting a light accumulation down at times.

Track away:

Hamburg Area from WKYT Studio
Lexington

Fifth Third Pavilion Live Cam
Downtown Lexington

Temps are cold and getting colder. Check out the air coming in behind our light snows by Wednesday morning:

Frigid temps then control the weather Thursday into Friday, with the chance for some light snow, but the majority of this may stay just to our south.

That’s one of 3 systems we are tracking as close out 2017. The next one zips in from the northwest to start the weekend, with the possibility of a system rounding the bend as we usher in 2018. Here’s the GFS…

As cold as it is through the next few days, it’s nothing compared to the weekend and early next week:

That’s headline making cold showing up across much of the country.

Make it a great day and take care.

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A white Christmas for many

Merry Christmas, everyone. Many of us are waking up to a white Christmas, with, at least, some snow on the ground. Gusty winds will continue to blow some of the snow around, as we get ready for more in the coming days.

Roads will still be slick out there early Monday, with temps generally in the mid and upper 20s for highs. Early day snow showers and flurries will slowly give way to a mix of sun and clouds.

Here are your tracking tools for the day:

Hamburg Area from WKYT Studio
Lexington

Fifth Third Pavilion Live Cam
Downtown Lexington

I-75 @ Iron Works Pike
Lexington

I-275 approaching KY 20/Airport
Near Covington
I-275 East of KY 20/Airport Exit

I-71/I-75 at Buttermilk Pike
Near Covington
I-71/I-75 @ Buttermilk Pike

I-75 MP 127
Georgetown

I-64 at KY-801
Near Morehead

US 60 @ US 127
Frankfort
US60 @ US127

Later tonight and Tuesday, we go into a setup featuring periods of light snow and flurries working from west to east across the region. That should last into early Wednesday:

The air will be very cold, so we are talking about very fine flakes that will be flying around. There’s little, if any moisture content in the flakes, and a lot of them won’t show up on radar. Some local 1-inch amounts may show up during this time.

The cold is impressive, with highs by Wednesday ranging from the upper teens to low 20s:

Gusty winds will make that feel a lot colder.

Single digit lows try to show up by Thursday morning as we watch a possible snow maker later in the day into Friday. The arctic air may keep a lot of that system to our south and southeast, but it could easily produce a light snowfall around here.

The system coming behind that for New Year’s weekend is the one to watch for our threat:

The Canadian model has it too:

The cold showing up for the week ahead is impressive, but nothing like what the models have coming in behind that system.

Look at the GFS for New Year’s Day:

That model takes our lows below zero with wind chills approaching minus-20. It has minus-50 wind chills into the Midwest.

The Canadian model is also seeing the brutal cold. These are actual low temps from the model:

Have a Merry Christmas and take care.

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