March spills over into April

Good Monday, everyone. March was a very wild and wooly weather month in Kentucky, and it’s looking more and more like April wants to continue that trend. We have everything from severe storms and 70s, to the chance for flakes and 20s in the forecast.

Let us begin with our Monday and roll forward.

Morning showers will quickly move away, leaving mostly cloudy skies. There is still the chance for a shower during the day, but much of the time looks dry:

Highs this afternoon reach the low 50s, but may climb tonight as a warm front lifts northward through the region. That could touch off a scattered storm or two, but it will also unleash some very mild temps for Tuesday. Highs will reach deep into the 70s on a strong southwesterly wind.

This is ahead of a strong cold front, bringing showers and storms in here by Tuesday night:

Some of the storms may be strong, with a few trying to go severe. The SPC has us in theenhanced risk:

 

Damaging wind is the primary player, at this point.

Temps drop some 30-40 degrees behind the front into Wednesday, with the potential of a few flakes flying.

This cold air holds tough through the rest of next week into the following weekend. It gets reinforced by another cold front Thursday night. That may produce some rain and snow as it moves in and slows down. That slowing down then allows for a potential big storm system to develop along the front, targeting the Ohio Valley with rain and snow:

GFS

Canadian

Either way, that doesn’t bode well for the opening weekend for Keeneland or the Lexington Legends.

Make it a great Monday and take care.

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April starts with more wild weather

Good Sunday and Happy Easter! April is off and running, but you may get it confused with March. That’s because the overall weather pattern really hasn’t changed much. We have a lot of wild weather on the way, with the potential for a little late Easter snow for some areas.

Morning showers will give way to a few dry hours, but another system rolls in here later today into tonight. This is mainly a cold rain for many, but areas across the north may have a brief period of slushy snow. Here’s the area having the best chance for that:

Temps rise on Monday with a few more showers ahead of a warm front. That unleashes a WARM day for Tuesday:

If we can get enough sunshine, temps will make a run at 80 degrees on a strong southwesterly wind. This all comes crashing down behind a cold front arriving Tuesday night. High winds and strong thunderstorms are possible:

Temps drop more than 40 degrees into Wednesday, with the potential for a few snow flurries or snow showers on a northwest wind:

Let’s review… snow Sunday night, 80 on Tuesday, with more snowflakes on Wednesday. Kentucky weather is crazy and I’m not just talking about the dude on twitter. 🙂

Lows by Thursday morning may cause some damage to vegetation. Readings may drop into the low and middle 20s:

Notice all that bitter cold up in Canada? That has to go somewhere, and it works into the country by the weekend. That’s when another system then moves in here late Friday into Saturday, and may take on a winter look:

Lows behind that have a chance to flirt with the teens next weekend, with below zero numbers showing up as close by as Iowa on the GFS:

Let’s get back to the weather out there today. Here are your Easter tracking tools:

Hamburg Area from WKYT Studio
Lexington

Fifth Third Pavilion Live Cam
Downtown Lexington

I-75 @ Newtown Pike
Lexington

I-75 @ Clays Ferry Bridge South
Between Lexington and Richmond

US 60 @ US 127
Frankfort
US60 @ US127

US 60 @ Chenault Road
Near Millville
US60 @ Chenault Road

Winchester

Georgetown

I-64 at KY-801
Near Morehead

Maysville

Louisville
Downtown Louisville @ 2nd & Broadway

I-275 approaching KY 20/Airport
Near Covington
I-275 East of KY 20/Airport Exit

I-71/I-75 at Buttermilk Pike
Near Covington
I-71/I-75 @ Buttermilk Pike

I-71/I-75 at 12th St.
Covington
I-71/I-75 @ 12th St. in Covington

Happy Easter and take care.

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Old Man Winter crashing Easter?

Good Saturday to one and all. We have a very interesting Easter Weekend kicking off across central and eastern Kentucky. Two systems are set to impact our weather and one of them could bring a touch of snow for some.

On this final day of March, we have some decent weather showing up for a while. Highs may hit 60 in many areas, but clouds and showers quickly move in from the northwest by evening. Track the action:

That front will then put the brakes on across the southern half of the state on Easter Sunday. We will get several dry hours during the day, but a wave of low pressure puts a quick end to that later in the day.

That low will bring rain and a swath of snow across the northern part state through Sunday night:

That can drop some light accumulations across the northern half of the state and that ain’t no foolin’. Here’s the latest GFS snow map:

The NAM is now seeing the same thing:

If anything sticks, it’s likely to be on grassy and elevated surfaces.

That system moves away quickly Sunday night and early Monday, with temps surging behind it. We hit the 50s on Monday, with readings that can reach the low 70s by Tuesday. This is ahead of a VERY strong cold front marching into our region Tuesday night. That may bring high winds and a line of strong storms through here:

Temps drop big time behind this front, as cold air floods back in.

The pattern next weekend has a very interesting look to it, with winter air controlling much of the country, and an active jet stream. Don’t be surprised if we are tracking a huge storm system into our part of the world.

Have a great Saturday and take care.

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Breaking down the Easter Weekend forecast

Good Friday, everyone. Easter Weekend is kicking off on a rather ugly note, with leftover rains and a chill in the air. How are things looking as the Easter Bunny hops into town on Sunday? I have the full breakdown.

Let’s begin with today. Gusty showers will be common early, but will slowly decrease during the afternoon and evening. Temps are generally in the upper 40s and low 50s for most of the region.

Here are your radars to track the action:

Saturday’s weather looks good for much of the day, but goes downhill quickly by evening. That’s when another cold front zips in from the northwest. Showers will increase during this time and will hang around into the wee hours of Easter Sunday.

That may impact some Easter Sunrise services, but what happens after this is getting more of my attention. We should see some dry weather, but another system zips in from west to east by Sunday night. The models are taking on a much colder look, with the potential for a rain/snow mix, or a swath of light snow.

The GFS is showing the snow across the northern half of the state Sunday night:

 

The Canadian has a similar look:

The rest of spring break looks pretty ugly, with big storm systems rolling across the region. This is from the continued fight between spring and winter, with winter still showing a lot of spunk. The GFS Ensembles snowfall map for the next two weeks shows this:

True spring is still a ways away. Make it a good one and take care.

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Potential for flooding continues

Good Thursday, everyone. We continue to track rounds of heavy rain producing showers and storms across the region. This setup is producing a general flood threat and a flash flood threat through tonight.

Much of the region continues to be under a Flood Watch:

Another 1″-3″ of rain may fall across parts of central and eastern Kentucky today. If you live in a low-lying or flood-prone region, please keep a close eye on the water levels. I will have your tracking tools in a bit.

Leftover showers will slowly move away on Friday, with some afternoon rays of sun possible. Winds will be a littler chilly from the north and northwest.

Looking toward Easter Weekend, we have two systems to track. The first arrives late Saturday and lasts into Easter Sunday Morning. That will bring some gusty showers that may end with a snowflake mixed in:

Much of Easter Sunday afternoon looks to be in chilly, but good shape.

The next system then zips in here Sunday night into Monday, with a  swath of rain and snow possible:

The pattern next week remains VERY active, with several rounds of precipitation and cold shots fighting it out with spring.

Here are your tracking toys for the day:

Make it a good one and take care.

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Flood threat the next few days

Good Wednesday, everyone. Rounds of heavy rain and thunderstorms continue to press across the region, leading to the potential for flooding. Several inches of rain may fall through Thursday night.

Here’s the area with the greatest threat for flooding:

A general 2″-4″ of rain is possible, with locally higher amounts a good bet. Given how wet the ground is, and how swollen our waterways are, flooding issue can easily develop.

Flash flooding, general flooding and river flooding are all possible during this time.

Here are the current watches and warnings for our region:

The heavy rains end Thursday night and early Friday, with chilly air coming in to start the Easter Weekend. This sets up a rather unsettled Easter Weekend.

Before we get to that, we have to track the flood threat. Here are your radars to track the rounds of rain and storms:

Have a great day and take care.

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Showers and storms to increase

Good Tuesday, everyone. Milder air has taken control of the pattern for a few days, but showers and thunderstorms are about to share the stage. As this week acts the part of March, the first week of April may revert back toward wintertime. Sigh.

Temps today make a run into the 60s, but a strong southwesterly wind will bring a few showers and storms into our region:

Temps over the next few days are mainly in the 60s, but showers and storms will really increase. This comes from a stout moisture supply from the southwest. From there, we watch a more potent setup coming our way for the end of the week into the start of Easter Weekend. The high water threat is going to increase in the coming days, with the potential of 3″+ rains showing up across the state through Friday:

What about Easter Sunday? I’ve said we are walking a tight rope between systems, but some of the latest guidance suggests the potential for a shower or storm going up:

Once that goes through, another system takes aim at us by early Next week. The Canadian has a full blown winter look…

The European Model isn’t quite as robust, but isn’t too far away:

This one is being pushed by, what amounts to, an arctic outbreak entering the country. temps behind this will be WAY down there.

Have a great day and take care.

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It’s another busy week ahead

Good Monday to one and all. Our new week is off and running with MUCH milder temps, and the mild air should carry us through Friday. After that, things can get ugly, with another big blast of cold waiting in the wings for early April.

Highs out there today should hit 60 or better in many areas, with a mix of sun and clouds. Things look mainly dry, with only a small shower or storm chance.

Highs for the rest of the week should warm to the 60s for much of the state, with a shot at a 70 if we cans squeeze in a little sunshine.

With the milder pattern, comes the increasing threat for showers and thunderstorms. Isolated stuff will be possible Monday and Tuesday, with more widespread action on Wednesday:

Scattered showers and storms continue through the end of the week, with a much stronger storm system taking aim at our region. This may produce strong storms, heavy rains and even the chance for a wraparound snowflake to start Easter Weekend:

We will need to watch the flood threat with that system. If it deepens a little more, those strong storms could even become severe.

The cold behind that is quick-hitting, with a nice rebound into Easter. That’s ahead of a powerful blast of cold for the first week of April. Folks, this is ugly:

That has the potential to be brutal cold for this time of year. It may also be accompanied by big thunderstorms ahead of it, and a touch of winter behind it:

That’s just nasty!

Have a great Monday and take care.

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March continues to act more like winter

Good Sunday, everyone. The third winter storm in less than 2 weeks blanketed much of the region with heavy snow on Saturday. As this system moves away today, temps start to rebound, but another winter looking system is lurking to close out the month.

A few showers will be around early today, with several roads still slush-covered. Highs will reach the 40s with a mix of sun and clouds.

As we look into the week ahead, we find temps rebounding into the middle of the week, with some showers and thunderstorms increasing. Locally heavy rainfall is possible with some of the boomers.

I’m not liking the looks of the setup from late week into Easter Weekend. The upper levels are primed to develop another big storm system for our region, that could bring additional winter weather. Watch this trough dig in and take on a negative tilt:

The models are just now beginning to see the storm system developing from that:

The pattern threatens to turn cold again for Easter Weekend, with the cold hanging tough into early April. This is a cold look as far as the GFS Ensembles can see:

That’s just ugly.

Make it a great Sunday and take care.

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Tracking another messy winter storm

Good Saturday to one and all. Another winter storm is taking aim at parts of the region, the third such storm in the past 2 weeks. This is a much more narrow band of snow than the others, but it can still dump several inches.

Outside of that band of heavy snow in the north and northeast, heavy rains will be noted across the rest of the state. That could lead to some local high water issues.

Here are your tracking tools for the day:

Hamburg Area from WKYT Studio
Lexington

Fifth Third Pavilion Live Cam
Downtown Lexington

I-75 @ Newtown Pike
Lexington

I-75 @ Clays Ferry Bridge South
Between Lexington and Richmond

US 60 @ US 127
Frankfort
US60 @ US127

US 60 @ Chenault Road
Near Millville
US60 @ Chenault Road

Winchester

Georgetown

I-64 at KY-801
Near Morehead

Maysville

Louisville
Downtown Louisville @ 2nd & Broadway

I-275 approaching KY 20/Airport
Near Covington
I-275 East of KY 20/Airport Exit

I-71/I-75 at Buttermilk Pike
Near Covington
I-71/I-75 @ Buttermilk Pike

I-71/I-75 at 12th St.
Covington
I-71/I-75 @ 12th St. in Covington

Have a great day and take care.

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