Storms start to show up

Good Thursday, everybody. We are one week away from the 4th of July and our temperature pattern is finally starting to feel it. Unfortunately, we just can’t shake the thunderstorms as a few show back up today. This is likely a sign of things to come as we head closer to the big day.

Highs on our Thursday will generally range from the mid to upper 80s across much of central and eastern Kentucky. High humidity levels will make it fee a few degrees warmer than that. That same increase in humidity should also allow for some thunderstorms to develop. I will have your tracking tools in a bit.

The forecast through the rest of the week and into the weekend looks very similar to what we have going on out there today. Scattered boomers and steamy temps will rule the weather world during this time.

The pattern for the big 4th of July week continues to look like one that can produce rounds of showers and storms dropping in from the west and northwest:

The models are now coming around to this idea:

Obviously, that’s not a very good look as we head into one of the biggest holidays of the entire year.

Behind that setup, the Ensembles continue to advertise cooler air taking control once again:

Here are your tracking toys for today:

Current watches
Current Watches

Possible watch areas
Current MDs

Have a terrific Thursday and take care.

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Toasty temps arrive in Kentucky

Good Wednesday, everyone. We are rolling into the middle of the week with toasty temps finally arriving in the region. It’s been a cooler and wetter than normal June, but the numbers are right around normal for the rest of the week and into the weekend.

Even with the change in the temperature department, we won’t be able to totally shake the storm chances. Isolated storms are possible out there today and regional radar will help you find them:

Highs today are in the mid and upper 80s for many, with humidity levels on the increase. Temps for Thursday and Friday will generally range from the upper 80s to around 90. That’s very typical for this time of year.

Scattered showers and storms will go up in the afternoon and evening hours and that’s something we will likely see more of into the weekend.

The focus on your 4th of July week continues to be on a better potential for rounds of storms to return to the region. That’s something I alluded to with my last update and it’s looking a little more like another battle zone takes shape around here. You can see that on the GFS:

The model is starting to increase the rainfall numbers over the next few weeks:

Have a wonderful Wednesday and take care.

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Dry weather moves in

Good Tuesday to one and all. We have an honest to goodness dry day taking shape across central and eastern Kentucky. This kicks off a setup that is much better in terms of thunderstorm coverage, but the chance will kick back in over the next few days.

Let us begin with today and roll forward. Highs are in the upper 70s and low 80s with a dry wind blowing. Skies will be partly sunny so make sure to carve out some time to go outside and enjoy.

The pattern for the rest of the week will see some very steamy conditions moving into the region. Humidity levels are going to feel rather tropical as temps hang out in the 85-90 degree range… Typical for this time of year.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be noted during this time, with a little better chance for the coming weekend. This is when we will need to start watching the northwestern sky for clusters of thunderstorms dropping back in here..

The pattern into the 4th of July week is going to try to send a trough into the eastern part of the country:

I’m not fully sold on that idea. If we just use pattern persistence, one could see that trough not being as deep and instead setting up another wet battle zone across our region.

I promised you a look way down the weather road and I’m here to deliver. The JAMSTEC seasonal run is out for the rest of summer, fall and winter. The model is spot on with the cooler temps of summer, so far. It then shows our region remaining cool in the fall, but much of the country warms. It then drops the hammer in for winter:

It’s a winter forecast made from June… What can go wrong? 😉

 

Make it a terrific Tuesday and take care.

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Monday brings more thunder

Good Monday, everyone. Not that this will come as a shock to you, but a few more thunderstorms are on the move to begin the week. The pattern after today isn’t quite as stormy, but it’s one that will still throw some boomers our way through the week.

Let’s talk about today’s storm threat before we look down the road. Showers and storms will come at us in waves, with a few strong to severe storms possible. The Storm Prediction Center has much of the region in the severe storms risk area:

In addition to the severe threat, these storms will be loaded with torrential rains, leading to the potential for flash flooding. Outside of the storms, hazy sun and temps in the upper 70s and 80s will be common.

Here is everything you need to track today’s storms:

Current watches
Current Watches

Possible watch areas
Current MDs

Scattered showers and storms will continue into Tuesday as our front slowly pulls away. Still, moisture remains for the middle of the week and that is likely to fire up a few more storms…

By later this week, a significant trough develops across the Great Lakes and the northeast. That means we get into a pattern of northwest to southeast moving thunderstorm clusters:

That unleashes a cool blast of air behind it as we close June and say hello to July.

Have a marvelous Monday and take care.

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More storms rumble through the area

Good Sunday to one and all. It’s another day of some sun doing battle with rounds of showers and thunderstorms. This is an all too familiar setup for those of us in the bluegrass state and it’s one that looks to be the trend of the summer.

As usual, let’ begin with what’s happening out there today. A few clusters of thunderstorms will work across central and eastern Kentucky. These storms may be strong or severe, producing high winds and hail. Here’s the current Severe Weather Outlook from the SPC:

Monday looks to feature more showers and storms, with a similar severe weather potential:

Heavy rains will continue to bring a flash flood threat to the region. Obviously, it’s not raining all the time, but you know the drill by now.

Looking into next week, storms become more scattered, but the chance for showers and storms is with us every stinking day. I know you’re shocked.

All of this is going to continue to add to our incredibly wet year that has our rainfall numbers WAY, WAY above normal:

Don’t worry, as soon as it doesn’t rain for a few days, the garbage drought monitor will tell you that we are abnormally dry and beginning a drought. 🙂

The temperature trend for June to date as been cooler than normal across Kentucky and across much of the country:

The numbers next week are closer to where we should be to wrap up June, but there has been a growing signal for another cooler than normal shot around the 4th of July. Several of the Ensembles have been hinting at this and now the operational models are going that way. This is one heck of a trough on the GFS:

Here are your Sunday storm tracking toys:

Current watches
Current Watches

Possible watch areas
Current MDs

Have a great Sunday and take care.

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Rounds of showers and storms continue

Good Saturday, folks. It’s another day of rounds of showers and thunderstorms rumbling across the bluegrass state. These storms can be strong and put down a lot of rain in a short amount of time.

Storm clusters continue to push in from the west and northwest today and some of these may be strong or severe. Just like yesterday, damaging winds and large hail are the main threats. Here’s today’s Severe Weather Outlook from the Storm Prediction Center:

The threat will persist into Sunday:

In addition to the severe threat, the flash flood threat continues to be very high, so keep a close eye on creeks and streams through Monday.

The pattern next week looks to feature seasonal temps with storms still around, but likely in much more scattered fashion. Still, we can’t seem to find any prolonged dry periods.

Looking farther down the weather road toward the first week of July, some of the models are trying to stick a tough back into our region. That could make for a cooler than normal first week…

The CFS Seasonal Model continues to show a cooler setup through July. Here’s the 7 day period for the middle of the month…

Here’s what it has to end July and kick off August…

Here are your Saturday storm tracking toys:

Current watches
Current Watches

Possible watch areas
Current MDs

Make it a great day and take care.

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Here we go again

Good Friday, folks. Many of us are catching a short-lived break from the stormy weather, but that’s about to change in a hurry. Rounds of strong thunderstorms will rumble back in here later this evening and continue on and off through the weekend. This will bring more of what we’ve been dealing with for a while now.

Before the storms arrive, our Friday is actually pretty decent with highs in the low 80s for many. A mix of sun and clouds will soon give way to some thunderstorms diving in from the northwest later this evening into tonight. These storms could be big time wind makers and that’s something we will really need to be on guard for.

The Storm Prediction Center is highlighting much of the state in the severe weather risk through this evening:

This setup should carry us through Saturday and Sunday a boundary remains across the region:

No, it’s not going to rain all the time, but when it does, it’s gonna put it down! Some areas may pick up on several more inches of rain during this time.

Showers and storms should hang around into early next week.

As always, the blog is set up to become your one stop shop for storm tracking:

Current watches
Current Watches

Possible watch areas
Current MDs

Have a great Friday and take care.

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The storms won’t go away

Good Thursday, folks. We have more in the way of showers and storms rumbling across the region today. This action will last through the weekend and early next week and could even ramp it up a notch or two.

Today’s forecast features scattered showers and storms lasting into the evening hours. Just like in previous days, any storm that’s out there can put down a lot of water in a short amount of time and the ground just can’t take much more, so watch for high water issues.

Here is your daily dose of storm trackers:

There is a very small break coming for the first half of Friday, but that closes quickly as we watch a big cluster of strong to severe storms develop to our northwest. That may roll southeast into the region as early as Friday evening and continue into Saturday morning. As a matter of fact, the flow this weekend may feature more than one of those storm clusters:

The models have really been picking up on this action very well of late:

Those kinds of storms can bring an increased threat for wind damage. Here’s the Friday Severe Weather Outlook map from the Storm Prediction Center:

These weekend storms may also pack a ton of rain and lightning. The rainfall is also likely to bring a renewed threat for flash flooding to our region.

The stormy setup should hold into the first few days of next week, with the possibility for a few more strong to severe storms showing up.

Have a terrific Thursday and take care.

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More storm and heavy rains

Good Wednesday to one and all. We continue to track waves of showers and thunderstorms across the bluegrass state. Some of these storms later today into tonight could become severe and produce more flooding rains.

Scattered boomers develop though early this afternoon, with the main action arriving by evening from the west. That’s where strong to severe storms develop and work toward the east. The Severe Weather Outlook from the SPC has much of the region in the risk area:

Thursday will feature more rounds of heavy rain producing showers and thunderstorms that will likely cause more high water issues.

A small break in the action shows up on Friday, but clusters of strong thunderstorms will quickly fire back up and dive in here from the northwest. The first may arrive Friday night and early Saturday:

That would introduce another flood and flash flood threat this weekend into early next week.

The new European weeklies from WeatherBell takes us through August first and continues to show MUCH above normal rainfall around here and for much of the country:

This wet pattern continues to be absolutely amazing in terms of longevity and overall strength.

Here are your tracking toys for the day:

Current watches
Current Watches

Possible watch areas
Current MDs

Make it a great day and take care.

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Storms keep coming at us

Good Tuesday, everyone. From the broken record department… Rounds of showers and storms continue to roll across the state today. This stormy setup has been well advertised on the blog for a while and Mother Nature is sure living up to her end of the bargain.

Just like the past several days, any thunderstorm that goes up out there today can be strong or severe. Damaging winds and large hail will continue to be the main threats we are facing. The latest Severe Weather Outlook from the SPC has us in the low-end risk:

In addition to the severe threat, flash flooding continues to be something to be on guard for. These storms can drop a quick couple inches of rain in less than an hour. Given how wet the ground is, it won’t take much to cause high water issues.

Here are your tracking toys for a Tuesday:

As mentioned, rounds of showers and storms look to continue through the weekend and into early next week. No, it’s not raining all the time and you may not have rain everyday at your house, but heavy rain totals are likely. Many models continue to show several inches of rain.

The CFS temperature forecast continues with a cool signature for much of the country.

Here are the forecast temp anomalies for the first week of the month:

Notice a colder look for the 7 day stretch centered around the middle of the month:

And here’s what the model is seeing for the final week of July:

Make it a great day and take care.

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