More storms for the week ahead

Good Sunday to one and all. September is wrapping up on a very nice weather note, but it’s looking like more storms as October begins. The week ahead is looking warm and humid with an increase in storms. Sound familiar?

As we wrap up a record wet September, let’s review the records from the ninth month of the year:

  • This is the wettest September on record with 10.42″ of rain, so far.
  • This is the wettest fall month (September-November) on record.
  • The 10.42″ of rain makes this the 15th wettest month ever recorded in Lexington.
  • 2018 is the first month in recorded history with 2 months of 10″+ of rain in Lexington. February also featured more than 10″.
  • Records in Lexington date back to 1870

Temps today are in the 70s with a mix of sun and clouds. Those clouds thicken later tonight and Monday as scattered showers and storms rumble back in. Watch how this action rolls right on into Tuesday:

Temps for the week ahead are above normal with many days in the upper 70s to low 80s. Humidity levels are also up and that’s likely bad news.

We are coming off the wettest September on record and the month ahead looks like more of the same. Hopefully, nowhere near the extent of what we just had, but October looks to be much wetter than average.

The next round of showers and storms arrives later in the week and may carry us into the weekend:

It’s at this point the tropics may have a lot to say with what happens to our weather. Some big time cold fronts make a run at us during this time:

Fall weather loves REALLY need the tropics to calm down before we can get sustained chill in here.

Have a great day and take care.

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A great way to end September

Good Saturday, everyone. It’s a perfect fall weekend in the bluegrass state and that’s sending September out on a great note. Dry skies and pleasant temperatures are delivering the good stuff, but October may not feature much nice stuff to start out the tenth month of the year.

Highs today are in the upper 60s and low 70s for most of central and eastern Kentucky. A mix of sun and clouds will be noted. If you’re heading out to Kroger Field for tonight’s big game with South Carolina you may need a pullover or light jacket. Kickoff temp will be around 65 with temps in the upper 50s in the second half. More importantly… It’s dry! 🙂

Sunday looks like another winner of a weather day. Highs will reach the middle 70s with partly sunny skies showing up.

Next week continues to look like a warm one with the threat for showers and thunderstorms increasing. The first system throws scattered storms at us on Monday, with an increase in storms by Tuesday:

The end of the week into next weekend will feature a greater threat for rain and thunderstorms as a cold front drops in from the northwest. This front has a lot of early October cold air behind it, but it’s going to try to check up on top of us. If that’s the case, waves of low pressure may develop along the front, putting us back into a very wet pattern.

The tropics may also come back to life during this time. The tropics bully the overall pattern and you can see some action showing up now:

I’m really impressed by the amount of cold showing up across North America so early in the fall season. This early season cold is laying down one heck of a snowpack for this time of year. Look at the snow for the next 2 weeks on the GFS Ensembles:

Why is all that important? Because a healthy early season snowpack means the cold shots, when they come, will actually be COLD shots. If you want winter weather, the cold is an essential ingredient, obviously. While those shots haven’t been directly aimed at us, yet, they are impressive for the areas getting them. At some point, that cold hits us and may hit us pretty darn hard early on in the season.

Have a great Saturday and take care.

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Much better weather for the weekend

Good Friday, folks. We are rolling into the final few days of September and it appears Mother Nature has saved the best for last. The weather this weekend looks absolutely awesome!

Once into early October, more showers and storms look to target the region before a shot of chill moves in. I will get to all that in a bit.

First, let’s talk about the record setting September rains:

  • This is the wettest September on record with 10.42″ of rain, so far.
  • This is the wettest fall month (September-November) on record.
  • The 10.42″ of rain makes this the 15th wettest month ever recorded in Lexington.
  • 2018 is the first month in recorded history with 2 months of 10″+ of rain in Lexington. February also featured more than 10″.
  • Records in Lexington date back to 1870

Folks, those are some VERY impressive numbers.

Let’s start with this weekend. Temps will be in the upper 40s to middle 50s across the state to start our Friday. A lingering shower quickly moves way from the east, with partly sunny skies taking control. Highs today will be in the upper 60s and low 70s for the central and east, with mid 70s west. One word of caution on the temps… If clouds linger, the numbers will be quite a bit lower.

Saturday will feature temps very similar to what we have today. Those numbers will rise well into the 70s by Sunday as we hang on to dry weather. Basically, this is a great looking fall weekend in Kentucky.

Temps are above normal next week, with a couple of systems working into town. Scattered showers and storms will flare up from time to time:

Typhoon Trami continues to recurve in the western Pacific:

As mentioned, that typically forces a trough to dig into the eastern half of the country a week or so later. Sure enough, check out the European Model temp departure late next weekend:

Make it a great day and take care.

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More showers roll through

Good Thursday, everyone. Our cold front is slowing down just to our southeast today, keeping leftover showers across parts of Kentucky. As the showers fire back up, our temps are feeling much, much cooler.

We have a wave of low pressure rolling northeast along the stalled boundary. This is throwing another round of rain across most of the state, with heavier amounts possible in the east and southeast. That’s where some local high water issues could develop:

Here are your Thursday shower trackers:

With today’s showers comes some very cool high temps:

A morning shower is possible on Friday in the southeast, but clearing skies take control with lows dropping into the high 40s for some:

Highs are mainly in the upper 60s and low 70s for much of the east, with higher numbers west.

There’s almost another weak front moving in Friday night and early Saturday, bringing a little cooler brand of air for Saturday. Highs are generally upper 60s and low 70s central and east, with middle 70s west.

The nice weather rolls into Sunday, but active weather appears to work back in next week. We will watch a couple of systems bring more rounds of showers and storms our way:

Have a great Thursday and take care.

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Tracking strong storms and a cold front

Good Wednesday to one and all. We have a cold front slowly working across the state today and it’s bringing strong storms and heavy rain with it. This front will also bring some drier and cooler air in for the next few days, but there is some indication it stalls a little too close for comfort.

The showers and storms today could be strong or locally severe. Damaging winds and hail are the main players with any strong storm action. These storms will also produce torrential rains that can cause additional flooding and flash flooding.

I have your Wednesday storm tracking tools:

As mentioned, the front may very well stall just to our southeast on Thursday. That’s when a wave of low pressure develops along the front, bringing rain back into the east and southeast. The NAM is farthest west with the rains tomorrow:

Temps will be held way down into the 60s in many of these areas.

Showers may even linger into Friday morning across the southeast. Clearing skies should make for a great start to the weekend. Highs reach the 70-75 degree range for much of central and eastern Kentucky. Saturday looks awesome with upper 60s and low 70s for many, after starting in the 40s.

The pattern next week is threatening to take a walk on the wild side across the lower 48. The GFS takes that system and bombs it out ahead of the trough digging in behind it, then opens the floodgates on cold weather. Check out all the blue showing up on this:

That’s pretty amazing to see for the first week of October, even if it is just on a computer model.

The Canadian isn’t that far behind:

My earlier than normal frost thoughts are still alive and well for the first week and change of October.

Make it a wonderful Wednesday and take care.

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Tracking more flooding and a severe storms threat

Good Tuesday, folks. It’s another very active weather day taking shape across central and eastern Kentucky. Rounds of showers and thunderstorms continue to cause flooding issues, and now we watch for the potential for a few severe storms.

Many areas in our region have been impacted by high water over the next few days, and our ground just can’t hold another drop. Unfortunately, heavy rains will fall across the region again today. Here’s a look at the current warnings across the region:

A Flash Flood Watch continues for much of the state during this time:

This watch goes through Wednesday with another 1″-4″ of rain possible during this time. That’s absolutely nuts and will likely make this the wettest September ever in Lexington.

The threat for severe storms will inch up a bit this afternoon and evening. The Storm Prediction Center has us in the risk area:

That risk area will slide east and southeast later tonight and Wednesday:

Damaging winds, large hail and isolated tornadoes are possible.

Much cooler and drier air FINALLY works in behind all this for Thursday and Friday.

Here are today’s trackers:

Have a great day and take care.

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Flood threat continues

Good Monday, everyone. Significant flooding hit parts of the region on Sunday, with the potential for more over the next few days. Rounds of heavy rain producing showers and storms will continue to move in through the middle of the week.

A Flash Flood Watch is out for much of Kentucky through Wednesday. Here’s a look:

Rounds of showers and storms continue today, likely leading to more flooding issues developing. This map will help you follow along with the latest warnings:

These waves of showers and thunderstorms are going to keep coming at us through the middle of the week. The models show some very hefty rain totals, but my fear is they are underestimating the numbers:

European

Canadian

Obviously, flash flooding is going to continue to be a serious issue. We should also be ready for the potential for river flooding to develop.

If you live in a low-lying or flood prone area, please stay alert to the rapidly changing conditions.

Have a great Monday and take care.

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Flash Flood Watch

Good Sunday, everyone. We are dealing with rounds of showers and storms rolling across our part of the world. This action is going to increase over the next few days, bringing a high water threat.

That threat is already underway, with much of central and eastern Kentucky under a Flash Flood Watch:

Today’s showers and storms from a stalled front across the Tennessee Valley. Deep moisture is streaming over this front and into Kentucky. This brings the potential for heavy rains and a local high water threat.

Here are today’s trackers:

Rounds of showers and thunderstorms will continue to stream across the region from southwest to northeast through Wednesday. This rich supply of moisture is pretty amazing to see, but it’s also a little scary. Several inches of rain will be likely during this time, with several areas possibly topping 5″ of rain.

I really don’t have too many complaints with the rain numbers from the WPC:

Flash flooding and river flooding are all possible over the next several days. If you live in a low-lying or flood prone area, keep an eye on water levels.

Enjoy your super soaker of a Sunday and take care.

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A very wet pattern underway

Good Saturday to one and all. A cold front is slowing down right on top of the region, bringing much cooler air and rounds of showers with it. This is all part of a bigger setup featuring a lot of rain in the coming days.

Let’s begin with today and roll forward. We are seeing a wide range in temps with low and mid 60s north and low and mid 70s south. Gusty showers will be noted from time to time, but it’s NOT going to rain all day. Take a poncho if you’re heading to Kroger Field as showers may increase from the southwest:

Showers and a few thunderstorms will be around Sunday, but it’s not likely to rain all day.

The setup from Monday through Wednesday continues to get more and more of my attention. It’s a potent setup for torrential rains that can cause flooding issues. It’s basically fall verses summer and we are the battle zone. Watch the repeat rain action:

The forecast models continue to be full steam ahead on some big rain numbers showing up through next week.

GFS

Canadian

Those kinds of numbers can cause flooding issues to develop and could make this the wettest September on record for the state.

Have a great Saturday and take care.

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Storms kick off the weekend

Good Friday, folks. We have a strong cold front heading toward the bluegrass state and this will bring an increase in showers and storms. This kicks off a very active and wet pattern through the middle of next week. The good news in all this? It’s turning MUCH cooler.

Any shower or storm this morning into this afternoon looks scattered. Outside of the storm action, temps are still well into the steamy 80s.

As the front gets closer, a broken line of showers and storms will roll our way this evening and some of those could be on the strong side. This may impact some high school football games.

The Storm Prediction Center has our region in a low-end Severe Storms Threat:

That front then slows down right on top of the region into the weekend, bringing more rounds of rain and much cooler air into the state through Monday:

Heavy rain producing showers and storms continue Tuesday and Wednesday as another powerful front drops in from the northwest:

You will also notice something spinning off the southeast seaboard. I talked about that a few days back.

Two more systems dive into our region late next week into the following weekend. Each will bring more rain, with cold air coming in behind the two:

Temps go MUCH colder than normal during this time, with the potential for  an early season frost.

Before we worry about that, I’m becoming more worried about more high water issues. All of these systems passing through here over the next week will put down a ton of rain. Look at the numbers from the European Model:

I have you all set for some Friday storm tracking:

Make it a great day and take care.

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