Historic cold pattern continues

Good Saturday, everyone. The current cold pattern we are in is truly historic for the month of May and looks to continue into the first half of next week. There’s finally a little light at the end of the tunnel, with warmer temps showing up later next week.

Temps start today in the 20s and end in the upper 40s to middle 50s. This high temps come with full sunshine and will be roughly 20 degrees colder than normal. Folks, this is astounding.

Another light freeze/frost will be with us across the eastern half of the state Sunday morning. By Sunday afternoon, clouds are increasing as another cold weather maker moves in. This brings a few showers before the day is finished:

This air behind this system is trending colder and we could have another frost threat Monday morning. Afternoon highs on Monday are ridiculously cold on the Euro:

That sets the stage for another light freeze/frost to begin Tuesday with temps around the freezing mark. Highs Tuesday stay in the 50s.

Wednesday starts with patchy frost across the eastern half of the state as the readings are again in the 30s. More record lows are possible for some areas Monday through Wednesday. Wow!

By Wednesday afternoon, we are beginning to warm things up. Most areas return to the 60s with a small storm risk. Those numbers then really jump for Thursday and Friday with upper 70s to low 80s for most:

Humidity levels will come up and that will lead to rounds of showers and storms kicking in through next weekend:

Make it a great day and take care.

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Rain before historic cold settles in

Good Friday, everyone. It’s a very ugly day, but the focus of the forecast is on the historic cold moving in for the weekend. Tonight may be the coldest May night ever recorded in Lexington. Ugh!!

Let’s begin with the rain out there today. Heavy rainfall is likely for much of the state, with some areas picking up on 1″ or a little more. That could lead to quick rises on creeks and streams, especially in areas hit by flash flooding earlier this week.

Here’s your regional radar…

The rain quickly ends from west to east late this afternoon into the evening. That rain may end a few flakes across the mountains in eastern Kentucky.

Historic cold is on the way behind this tonight and early Saturday with readings deep into the 20s:

That’s literally as cold as it can get around here for this time of year. Lexington has been at the center of this historic run of record cold:

5 record lows in less than a month is pretty darn impressive.

Sunday morning won’t get to the record, but a light freeze and frost is likely once again:

Sunday temps respond into the low 60s in the afternoon as clouds increase in front of another ugly weather maker:

That knocks the temps back into the 50s for highs Monday and Tuesday with another frost and light freeze a good bet by Tuesday morning:

This is likely to be our last go at frost and freezing conditions of the spring, so all you green thumbs can finally get after it.

Temps by the end of the week start to really warm and we could be around 80 as early as Thursday:

That warmer pattern is likely to be accompanied by an increase in thunderstorms!

Make it a great day and take care.

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Historic cold likely this weekend

Good Thursday to one and all. It’s a frosty start to the day, but you ain’t seen nothing yet. The coldest temps in recorded history may make an appearance across Kentucky over the weekend. 2020 continues to beat us down, doesn’t it?

Our day starts with temps in the 30s for many, but ends with readings in the low and mid 60s, which is still well below normal. A mix of sun and clouds will be noted with a small threat for a shower going up:

The Friday storm system continues to roll eastward across the lower Ohio Valley. This brings a cold rain for many areas and that rain may be heavy at times. The question is still on whether or not we can get some flakes out of this somewhere across Kentucky. The NAM is still going all in on the threat for a quick switch to wet snow late Friday:

The European Model says, not so fast! It keeps most of this in rain form, but it does have a few flakes at the tail end across the mountains in the southeast Friday evening:

This sets the stage for a hard freeze Friday night and early Saturday morning. Temps should drop deep into the 20s and could reach the coldest numbers we have ever seen in the month of May:

GFS

EURO

Temps by Sunday morning won’t be as cold, but should still give some areas a light freeze with another frost for many.

Clouds will increase Sunday with late day rain arriving:

Another frost or light freeze threat comes in behind that early next week. By the second half of the week, the pattern flips to much warmer as a ridge develops across the eastern half of the country. That looks to carry us into the following week:

A warm and stormy pattern should unfold for the second half of the month. There is also some indication the tropics come to life a little earlier than normal. That’s been a thing for several years now.

Have a terrific Thursday and take care.

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Historic cold possible

Good Wednesday to one and all. We have the coldest May pattern I’ve ever seen settling into the bluegrass state. This brings the increasing threat for history making cold temps by the coming weekend.

The first shot of chill is taking control right now and will continue to keep our temps well below normal over the next few days. By tomorrow morning, temps reach the low and mid 30s across central and eastern Kentucky and that likely brings a frost threat.

I’ve talked about how this pattern is straight out of winter and it actually has a chance to produce some winter weather. Low pressure works from west to east to our south on Friday. As that happens, very cold air is being drawn in behind the low.

From time to time, we’ve seen the medium range models hinting at the potential for some flake action. Now, we are seeing that in the shorter term. Check out the wet snow showing up on the GFS:

The NAM only goes through Friday evening, but it’s also showing some wet snow getting in there:

That’s absolutely incredible to see forecast models showing snow at this time of year and so close to an event. Again, the chance for snow falling where you live is naturally very low, but it’s not a zero chance.

With our without flakes, historic cold is possible by Saturday morning. The models continue to spit out the coldest May temps on record for many areas:

The amount of damage that would cause could be catastrophic.

The GFS then sends another shot of 20s in here by next Tuesday morning:

Make it a great day and take care.

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A cold May pattern setting up

Good Tuesday, everyone. We continue to track showers across the region, but it’s a much colder pattern getting our attention. Record lows and the potential for frost and freezing conditions are possible late this week into the weekend.

Let’s begin with today and roll forward. A system is bringing more rain and rumbles of thunder to us. This action becomes more scattered as the day wears on. Here are your radars to track the rain and thunder:

Temps today range from the 50s north to the 70s in the south.
Chilly temps take control tonight into Wednesday as skies clean up a bit. There’s still a slight chance for a stray shower on Wednesday as highs stay in the 50s. Wednesday night into Thursday morning will bring the first chance for frost across central and eastern Kentucky. Lows look to drop deep into the 30s:

Thursday looks ok with temps in the upper 50s and low 60s with a late day increase in clouds. Those clouds are ahead of a very ugly looking system for Friday. This rolls in with chilly rain and unleashes cold air for the weekend, with some snow showers flying not to far from us:

Saturday will find a drying sky from west to east, but my goodness it’s cold for this time of year. The day may start out in the upper 20s and low 30s:

This could be historic cold, folks. Highs on Saturday struggle into the low and middle 50s with gusty winds making it feel colder.

Sunday morning may also see temps drop back into the upper 20s and low 30s across central and eastern Kentucky.

The next system zipping in here by Sunday night and Monday should bring more chilly showers with it:

That keeps temps below normal into the first half of next week, but it shouldn’t be nearly as cold as the weekend. I’m finally seeing good news on the ensembles as they are trending warm late next week into the following week:

Have a great day and take care.

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Storms on the way tonight

Good Monday to one and all.

We have another storm system ready to rumble across the region through Tuesday, bringing the potential for more big storms in the west. As the week wears on, our temps return to much chillier than normal with a flat out cold pattern settling in by the weekend. That’s when record lows will be possible.

Let’s begin with what’s cracking out there today. Temps are in the upper 60s to low 70s for many, with thunderstorms flaring up in the west this afternoon and evening. That’s an area the SPC is highlighting for more severe weather:

Those showers and storms roll through the rest of the state tonight and Tuesday, with chilly showers trying to follow that up for Wednesday:

Temps for Wednesday and Thursday will be well below normal, but look to only be an appetizer to what’s coming this weekend. Folks, this is a setup that’s straight out of the winter months and is one you really never see this late in the year.

A chilly rain maker moves in here by Friday, with cold air diving in behind it this weekend. Check out the amazing look on the EURO:

Yes, that run joins recent runs of the GFS and Canadian in showing the potential for historic snowflakes possibly showing up:

The chance for any flakes actually showing up is very small, but it’s incredible to see forecast models actually showing that in the middle of May.

It shows just how anomalous of a pattern is setting up across the eastern part of the country. What I think is most likely is frost and freezing conditions. Historic lows are possible on more than one occasion.

The GFS continues to bring 20s in here for Saturday morning:

The model then does it again with another cold shot by next Tuesday morning:

Folks, if any of these numbers verify, it could potentially be devastating on green thumbs and farmers who already have some crops in the field. Here’s hoping this pattern flips quickly!

Have a great day and take care.

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Showers and storms return later today

Good Sunday to one and all. We continue with the very warm temps out there today, but a cold front is crashing our awesome weekend weather party. This will bring rounds of showers and storms to the area, especially in the late afternoon and evening.

Here’s a breakdown of what to expect:

  • Isolated storms are possible early today, but most stay dry.
  • Gusty southwest winds boost our temps back into the mid and upper 70s for many.
  • As the cold front drops in from the northwest, showers and storms quickly develop and roll in here. A few of those storms may be strong.
  • The action quickly moves away overnight, setting us up with another nice Monday as temps hit the low 70s.

Another storm system will then slide in here with thunderstorms Monday night and Tuesday. That will unleash another round of very chilly temps, with even colder weather moving in next weekend. That’s a shot of cold that may bring a frost and freeze threat to our region. That below normal look continues into the following week.

Can we find a pronounced warmup? The European Weeklies are trying to boost temps to around normal from the middle of May through the middle of June:

They also show above normal precipitation during this time:

As usual, I have you all set to track today’s rain and storm action:

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A warm start to the weekend

Good Saturday, folks. The first few days of May are treating us right with warm temps and sunny skies. Unfortunately, this doesn’t look like the trend of the next few weeks. As a matter of fact, we go the other way with colder than normal numbers returning. Ugh!!

Temps today range from the low and mid 70s east, to the upper 70s and low 80s west. Skies will feature a mix of sun and clouds, but there’s a threat for a very early morning shower or storm.

The threat for showers and storms will increase for Sunday as a cold front drops in here from the northwest. Temps ahead of this can spike to 80 in the south, but the north will be cooler because the storms get there first:

Monday looks much better with highs ranging from 70-75 degrees.

Showers and storms increase from west to east Monday night and Tuesday as a fast-moving system works through here:

Temps come way down behind all this and will be solidly below normal for the end of the week. Another system them arrives around Friday and unleashes very cold air for next weekend. As a matter of fact, a recent run of the GFS actually shows a snow chance around here:

That’s the latest I can ever remember a computer model showing snow in Kentucky. That’s unlikely to happen, obviously, but it shows the magnitude of the colder than normal pattern. This colder than normal looks to continue through the middle of the month:

Record cold is possible during this time and we may have frost and freeze threats showing up.

Enjoy the warmth of our Saturday and take care.

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Great weather starts May

Good Friday to one and all. The month is May is underway and our weather is looking up for the first weekend of the month. Of course, this would have been Kentucky Derby Weekend, but it wasn’t meant work out that way.

Clouds linger across the east early today and there’s still the threat for a shower. Clearing skies take control from west to east with the west hitting the low 70s and the far east struggling into the upper 50s and low 60s.

Everybody gets in on the warm weather for Saturday as highs reach the upper 70s to low 80s for some:

The numbers for Sunday are still warm as a cold front swings in from the northwest during the afternoon and evening:

This front may have some scattered storms ahead of it early Sunday, with fairly widespread showers and strong storms moving in later in the afternoon and continuing into the wee hours of Monday:

Temps behind that for Monday are still pretty darn nice under a sunny sky:

Another shower and storms maker sweeps in by Tuesday. That unleashes another round of cooler than normal temps and this may last through the middle of the month.

The Ensembles continue to show the numbers going WELL below normal at times:

GFS

Again, don’t do any planting just yet!

Have a happy Friday and take care.

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April ends with more ugly weather

Good Thursday and welcome to the final day of April. The weather for much of the month has been a little on the nasty side, so it’s appropriate that we send April out with showers and chilly temps.

Let’s begin with today and roll forward. Winds are very gusty from the northwest and may reach 30mph at times as temps range from the upper 40s to middle 50s. Numerous showers will be around for many, especially central and eastern Kentucky:

Clouds will slowly break up from west to east on Friday and there could even be a leftover shower early. The high temps for Friday are up a bit on the Euro:

What would have been Kentucky Derby Saturday looks awesome with plenty of sun and temps that are very warm:

Sunday could be even warmer with the potential for 80-85 degree temps showing up for a little more of the state:

That will be on a gusty southwest wind ahead of our next system working in here late Sunday into Sunday night. This could bring a line of strong storms to town:

Temps rebound behind that, but the next system quickly zips in by the middle of the week. That one may bring more ugly our way later next week:

The pattern continues to be skewed colder than normal into the middle of May and could set us up for a late season frost threat at some point. The GFS Ensembles are skewed way colder than normal:

Have a great Thursday and take care.

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