Cool and calm weather rolls in

Good Thursday to one and all. It’s a MUCH better pattern rolling into central and eastern Kentucky today. This sets up shop through the weekend into early next week and gives us a September feel in the middle of June. Will anyone really complain? That’s rhetorical. 🙂

Highs out there today are into the 70s with comfy air and plenty of sunshine taking over.

The numbers for Friday jump up a little as another front approaches from the northwest. That may touch off a shower or storm late in the day into Saturday, but this isn’t very widespread. This brings even cooler air in behind it for the weekend and early next week.

This is when a deep trough digs in and closes off over us and just to our east:

GFS Ensembles

EURO

Depending on where that upper low sets up, we could see a few showers sneaking into the picture at some point into early next week.

Temps average way below normal over the next 5 days:

Highs in the 70s look common this weekend with Sunday being closer to 70 for some. Lows by Sunday and Monday may drop into the 40s:

That could put some areas within reach of a record low.

Have a great day and take care.

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A strong cold front brings strong storms

Good Wednesday to one and all. A strong cold front is working across the state today and it’s bringing the potential for strong to severe storms. Once we get this front to our east, it’s game on for a late September feel to take control for the next several days.

Let’s start with today’s severe weather threat. A cold front is pushing into the state and will fire up a few lines of strong to severe storms ahead of it. The greatest severe threat is across the eastern half of the state. Here’s the Severe Weather Outlook from the Storm Prediction Center:

Damaging winds will be the main player, but there’s also a small risk for a quick spin up.

Once this front blows through here, temps will drop into the pleasant category for Thursday and Friday.

Another front drops in later Friday or early Saturday as a deep trough digs into the region. There’s the chance this cuts off and spins on top of us into the first half of next week:

Not only would that bring very cool summer temps in here, but it could also keep the weather rather unsettled:

The closed low setup is one we have seen several times since April, so it’s interesting to see that continue into June. That would keep the heat at bay, but it will try to surge in here as soon as that system pulls away.

One gets the feeling this is the theme of the summer… lots of back and forth in the temperature department.

I leave you with your Wednesday storm tracking toys:

Current watches
Current Watches

Possible Watch Areas

Current MDs

Have a terrific Wednesday and take care.

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Strong storms rumble through

Good Tuesday, folks. What’s left of Cristobal is impacting the weather today and bringing the potential for strong to severe storms. This ignites a bigger overall change as a deep trough sweeps in behind this system later in the week into the weekend. That brings a taste of late September temps our way.

The remnants of Cristobal will pass just to our west today, bit will bring gusty winds to the region. Gusts today may reach 50mph in the west and 40mph into central Kentucky. This will also bring the potential for a few bands of strong to severe storms our way. Here’s the current Severe Weather Outlook from the Storm Prediction Center…

Damaging wind is the main threat, but a quick tornado spin up is also possible. The best chance for that is across the west.

A strong cold front follows on Wednesday and brings another risk for strong to severe storms…

Damaging winds and large hail are the main players with the Wednesday storms.

Temps come way down behind this on Thursday as we wait on another front to sweep in by Friday. That brings a blast of September air behind it for the upcoming weekend into early next week.

Beyond this, we will need to watch for hot temps to make another run at us later in the week. Overall, this is a drier pattern than what we have seen in recent summers.

Here are your tracking toys for the day:

Have a great Tuesday and take care.

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Your week ahead outlook

Good Sunday, everyone. As we wrap up the first weekend of June, it’s all eyes on a busy week ahead of weather. What’s left of Cristobal looks to have a big impact on the weather across central and eastern Kentucky.

Let’s talk about Tropical Storm Cristobal right out of the gate. This storm is barreling toward Louisiana today:

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov//GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/GM/13/GOES16-GM-13-1000x1000.gif

Here’s the forecast from the National Hurricane Center, bringing the cone of uncertainty into parts of far western Kentucky:

This should come ashore in Louisiana late this evening or into the wee hours of Monday morning. What impact does it have on our weather? Let’s find out with the breakdown.

  • Today is a really nice day across the region with lower humidity and temps in the pleasant upper 70s to low 80s.
  • Steamy temps return for Monday with highs well into the 80s.
  • Typically, temps shoot up ahead of landfalling tropical systems and that looks to be the case on Tuesday. Highs near 90 are a good bet for many.
  • As the remnant low of Cristobal passes just to our west on Wednesday, gusty winds will be likely around here. We are also likely to crank some strong thunderstorms during this time.
  • Temps come way behind this system with another front ready to move in Friday.
  • That front brings even cooler air for next weekend. The numbers are likely to go well below normal for several days.

Make it a great Sunday and take care.

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A cold front ushers in changes

Good Saturday to one and all. It’s another toasty temperature day, but comfy changes show up for Sunday. As the old saying goes, ‘you ain’t seen nothing yet’. Much bigger changes arrive next week as what’s left of Cristobal play a big part in the weather across Kentucky.

Today’s weather is very steamy with temps deep into the 80s ahead of our front. There’s the chance for a few storms, but this stuff isn’t very concentrated. The air behind this front is MUCH less humid for Sunday. Temps will range from the upper 70s in the northeast to the mid and upper 80s west.

Tropical Storm Cristobal continues to barrel toward Louisiana and should make landfall late Sunday or early Monday:

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov//GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/GM/13/GOES16-GM-13-1000x1000.gif

Here’s the forecast from the National Hurricane Center, bringing the cone of uncertainty into far western Kentucky:

What’s left of Cristobal will then merge with a front dropping in from the northwest late Tuesday and Wednesday:

That setup keeps the heaviest rains to our west, but that negative tilt of the trough could fire up some strong or severe storms around here Wednesday.

With the remnants of Cristobal passing just to our west, some big time winds may show up across parts of Kentucky. You can see the path of the storm based on the wind gust forecast:

Temps ahead of this will hit 90 on Tuesday, but drop quickly behind this Wednesday and Thursday. Another front drops in here on Friday and brings a push of even cooler air for next weekend. The Canadian is going gangbusters:

It could get really cool across much of the eastern part of the country during this time!

Here are your tracking toys for the day:

Have a great day and take care.

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Tracking a weekend cold front

Good Friday to one and all. Our warm and humid weather is with us to start the weekend, but that changes behind a cold front arriving Saturday. That brings a nice little break for Sunday, but bigger changes are lurking for next week. Some of those changes come from Tropical Storm Cristobal.

Let’s talk about the weekend before we get into all that. Our Friday is featuring a few more rounds of showers and storms going up. One or two could be on the strong side as temps are back into the muggy 80s.

A cold front drops in for Saturday and may still fire up a storm or two, especially in the south and east. Temps are still toasty, but start to drop from north to south late in the day. That leads to pleasant weather for Sunday across the eastern half of the state. A few spots may stay in the upper 70s with much lower humidity.

Tropical Storm Cristobal continues to strengthen and move to the north in the Gulf of Mexico:

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov//GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/GM/13/GOES16-GM-13-1000x1000.gif

Here’s the forecast from the National Hurricane Center, bringing the cone of uncertainty into parts of Kentucky:

Cristobal may become a weak Hurricane before coming ashore in Louisiana late Sunday or early Monday. The remnant low from this is likely to lift northward through the Mississippi Valley early next week. That should then get picked up by an approaching trough:

You can clearly see how this does bring some rain into the area by late Tuesday and Wednesday. Temps ahead of tropical systems can really take off and there’s a chance we get into the low 90s on Tuesday. The Euro is seeing this:

As the trough swings through here, the numbers come way down by the end of the week into next weekend. That same Euro shows highs in the 70s:

Lows could even dip into the 40s. Yes, please!

I leave you with your Friday tracking toys for the day:

Make it a fab Friday and take care.

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Rounds of storms rumble through

Good Thursday to one and all. It’s another warm and humid day, but a few thunderstorms are rumbling across the area. This is along and ahead of a cold front dropping in from the northwest. This continues to be part of a very active setup that also features a tropical system in the Gulf of Mexico.

Let’s begin with today’s shower and storm action. It’s not all day rain by any stretch of the imagination, but any storm that’s out there can put down a lot of rain in a short amount of time. A few of the storms may also be strong or severe. The Storm Prediction Center has a low-end risk for severe storms across the region:

Muggy air remains into Friday as a few rounds of showers and storms roll through.

Our front slows down on top of us Saturday with a big temp swing showing up for the weekend. Temps in the west and southwest will be much warmer than everywhere else, with some comfortable air showing up across the east and north, especially Sunday and Monday.

From here, everything that happens will be dictated by Cristobal and where it goes. Our Tropical Storm continues to SLOWLY meander in the far southern reaches of the Gulf of Mexico. This will slowly turn north and strengthen:

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov//GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/GM/13/GOES16-GM-13-1000x1000.gif

Here’s the forecast from the National Hurricane Center:

Current indications are for this system to roll due north across the Mississippi River Valley before being absorbed by a deepening trough moving in for the middle and end of next week. Where the trough and Cristobal hookup is still to be determined, but some rain from this system is certainly possible here in Kentucky.

Temps ahead of this may spike to 90 on Tuesday, then start falling as our trough digs in here. The forecast models are showing another massive shot of cool air starting late next week. The Euro is bringing the 40s back in here for lows:

This cooler than normal air has the backing of the GFS. Check out how the model shows the cooler than normal temps rolling deep into the middle of the month:

The GFS Ensembles are on board:

That would be a pleasant temp regime for our region and I don’t think too many of us would complain.

I leave you with your Thursday storm tracking tools:

Current watches
Current Watches

Possible Watch Areas

Current MDs

Have a terrific Thursday and take care.

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Steamy temps bring storms back

Good Wednesday, everyone. It’s a very steamy day across Kentucky as summertime air returns to the region. This steamy air will bring more rounds of showers and storms in here for the next several days. Beyond that, our overall pattern depends on what happens with a tropical system in the Gulf of Mexico.

Let’s begin with today and roll forward. Temps are generally in the mid and upper 80s for many with 90 possible for some. Throw in the high humidity levels and the heat index will top 90 for most. A scattered shower or storm will blow up during the day, but the main action drops in from the northwest tonight. This line of storms could be strong or severe and the Storm Prediction Center is highlighting this potential across the northern half of the state:

The threat then focuses farther south for Thursday as clusters of strong to severe storms target the entire state. Here’s the Thursday Severe Weather Outlook:

A similar setup is likely for Friday as a cold front slows down on top of the region. How far south does this front get for the weekend? That will be the determining factor on how much our temps come down from late Saturday through Monday.

Tropical Storm Cristobal continues to SLOWLY meander in the far southern reaches of the Gulf of Mexico. This will slowly turn north and strengthen:

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov//GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/GM/13/GOES16-GM-13-1000x1000.gif

Here’s the forecast from the National Hurricane Center:

The models continue to bring this onshore in Louisiana or Texas late weekend and early next week. From there, the storm slowly works north through the Mississippi Valley and has a chance to impact our weather next week:

EURO

CANADIAN

I leave you with your Wednesday storm tracking tools:

Current watches
Current Watches

Possible Watch Areas

Current MDs

Have a terrific day and take care.

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Steamy temps and rounds of storms ready to return

Good Tuesday, everyone. It’s another great looking day across the state, but our temps are beginning to climb. This climb kicks off another steamy and stormy setup across central and eastern Kentucky. Boooo!

Temps today are back into the 80s for the entire area as humidity levels inch up. Our sky continues to look awesome, so enjoy the day.

The muggy meter really ramps up for Wednesday as temps make a run at 90 in a few spots, especially in the west. A cold front slowly drops in from the northwest Wednesday night and Thursday and this front looks active. The potential is there for strong to severe storms along the boundary and the Storm Prediction Center is watching that threat for Wednesday:

Additional rounds of storms continue through Friday and into early Saturday as our front sags to the south. That should bring some refreshing air in here for the weekend. The Euro takes us below normal once again:

What happens as this point will have a lot to do with our developing system in the southern Gulf of Mexico:

 

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov//GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/GM/13/GOES16-GM-13-1000x1000.gif

The models continue to bring this toward the central and western Gulf Coast states and it may become a hurricane. There’s a shot at this system impacting our weather early next week:

EURO

CANADIAN

Have a happy Tuesday and take care.

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June starts with more awesome weather

Good Monday to one and all. June is kicking off on a very nice weather note, but that’s about to change as steamy air surges in from the southwest. This will lead to toasty temps and high humidity levels, with storm clusters setting up later in the week. As this happens, we will be watching for a potential tropical system in the Gulf. Yep… It’s going to get active again.

Today starts with near record lows in the low 40s across the eastern half of the state. By the afternoon, most areas are into the low 70s east and low 80s in the far west. Skies remain awesome!

Temps spike into the 80s for Tuesday as we start to steam it up a bit. This steamy air really settles in on Wednesday as the numbers make a run at 90 in the west:

A weak front drops in from the northwest and brings a few storms into the region Wednesday night and Thursday. Given the orientation of this front and a ballooning heat ridge to our west, complexes of storms may roll in from the northwest through the end of the week into the weekend. The EURO actually drops that front to our south by Saturday, bringing another shot of below normal air:

At the same time, we may very well be talking about a named storm developing in the Gulf of Mexico. We’ve talked about this for more than a week and it’s now showing up on the Tropical Weather Outlook from the National Hurricane Center:

That system may slowly lift northward toward the north and may impact the US in a week or so. The operational models will struggle with what to do with this:

Can this impact the weather around here? It has a chance,but is far from being a certainty.

Temps are likely to remain very warm through next week, but signs are showing up for the next shot of below normal temps around the middle of the month:

This could be a continuation of our back and forth temp pattern!

Have a great Monday and take care.

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